Ten Teams Left: Who Will Finish Undefeated?

At the same time as the first BCS standings are released, college football has been culled down to ten undefeated teams from 120. Which are most likely to go undefeated for the entire season?

We'll look at each team, and considering their strength and the strength of their opponents, figure out how likely each is to remain undefeated during their regular schedule and after their conference championship game, if applicable. We also note how the teams are now expected to finish with game-by-game and cumulative projections.

The ten undefeated teams (as of October 16, 2011) in order of likelihood to finish the season (pre-bowl games) undefeated:

1. Boise State (6-0); Odds: 80.4%; favored: 12-0; cume: 12-0.
   Boise's biggest upcoming contest—against TCU—doesn't look to be nearly the challenge it seemed at the beginning of the season. The same goes for Air Force, who along with San Diego State forms the only other test of the year for the Broncos. UNLV, Wyoming, and New Mexico are guaranteed wins for all practical purposes, and there is no conference championship game in the Mountain West. Boise State is one of college football's elite teams this year and has no excuse for not going 12-0; of course, the same thing was said last year.
2. Wisconsin (6-0); Odds: 56.4% (47.3%); favored: 12-0; cume: 11-1.
   The Badgers are just shy of being favored to be 12-0 in a cumulative projection for their 12 games of the regular season, grading out with 11.48 wins. Yet there's an over 50% chance they'll finish 12-0; in other words, their mean # of wins is 11.48, but their mode is 12 wins. The Badgers play at Michigan State, Ohio State, and Illinois, and also face Penn State at home. Go 12-0 and they'll probably rematch either MSU or Nebraska in the Big Ten title game. Despite these hurdles, Wisconsin is so good that there's a roughly 50/50 chance of them being 13-0 when all is said and done.
3. Stanford (6-0); Odds: 44.9% (38.7%); favored: 12-0; cume: 11-1.
   The big hurdle is Oregon, of course. Other than that, only Notre Dame—another home game—can stop the Cardinal from being 12-0, and then they'll have to get past Arizona State (most likely) to be 13-0. Those are some tough games, but it's only a handful. They do travel to USC which is potentially always a problem, but Oregon is the game that really lowers their odds of going unbeaten.
4. Alabama (7-0): Odds: 46.3% (37.5%); favored: 12-0; cume: 11-1.
   The Tide are rolling, but even though they've got one more win under their belts than teams #1 through #3, having to play LSU crunches their odds quite a bit. They're at home so they should beat the Tigers, but their odds of doing so are around 57%, which is a lot of uncertainty. Add in their slim odds of being upset by someone else on their schedule (very unlikely) and having to win the SEC title game (moderate chance of upset facing Georgia in Atlanta), and Alabama is less than 50% likely to go 12-0, and has about a 3 in 8 chance of being 13-0.
5. Oklahoma (6-0): Odds: 32.7%; favored: 12-0; cume: 11-1.
   The Sooners face a number of moderate challenges and one big one when they travel to Oklahoma State in late November. With six games left, their odds of going unbeaten are around 1 in 3, but there is no conference championship to worry about.
6. LSU (7-0): Odds: 37.2% (30.1%); favored: 11-1; cume: 11-1.
   LSU's remaining schedule is actually a bit easier than Alabama's, other than the game in which they meet. They'll be the underdog in Tuscaloosa, mainly for playing on the road, hence their 11-1 game-by-game record. Even if they beat the Tide, they still have to play Arkansas, but they'll be at home for that one. Like Alabama, they might have to beat Georgia in Atlanta to win the SEC title and go 13-0, which cuts their odds to around 30%.
7. Houston (6-0): Odds: 34.5% (24.2%); favored: 12-0; cume: 11-1.
   Houston is a borderline top 25 team, and has won several games in close calls against questionable competition. But they won't face any great teams this year on their path to 13-0. Marshall, Rice, UAB, and Tulane are near-gimmes. They finish with SMU and Tulsa, both formidable challenges for the Cougars, and then take on the East division winner. We give the Cougars about a 1 in 4 chance of accomplishing all of that.
8. Oklahoma State (6-0): Odds: 12.2%; favored: 11-1; cume: 10-2.
   The Cowboys are just below the top six in quality, along with Oregon. Like the Ducks, their offense among the very best in the nation but the defense is merely good. They're also in arguably the toughest conference in the country this year, and games against Missouri, Baylor, Kansas State, and Texas Tech will test them even before they host Oklahoma. As a result, their cumulative projection is to finish 10-2, and they have only about a 1 in 8 chance of running the table.
9. Clemson (7-0): Odds: 11.6% (6.2%); favored: 11-1; cume: 10-2.
   Clemson is another borderline top 25 team (in strength) that has overachieved and won some close ones. All of their remaining games will present some challenge, but particularly Georgia Tech and South Carolina, both on the road. They're projected to lose to the Gamecocks (giving them a 11-1 game-by-game finish) and the Yellow Jackets game is a tossup. In all, they'll probably finish 10-2. If they do go 12-0, they'll probably rematch Virginia Tech and that game probably won't be as easy as it was the first time around. In all, Clemson's chances of going 13-0 are pretty slim, but they'd really only need one upset (and against a team that lost their star).
10. Kansas State (6-0): Odds: 0.2%; favored: 8-4; cume: 9-3.
    The Wildcats are the team no one is picking to go 12-0, and for good reason. First of all, they're the weakest team on the list (if you properly factor in their opening 10-7 win over Eastern Kentucky). And two, they have a murderous schedule coming up. After what should be a breather (though Kansas is a rivalry game), they face Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, and Texas in a 4-week span. They really should lose all of those, hence the 8-4 prediction, but they've been been winning the close games this year so they might reach the cumulative projection of 9-3. But 12-0 is an extreme longshot, 1 in 500 to be exact.

The odds run the gamut from Boise State's 80.4% chance of finishing 12-0 to Kansas State's meager 0.2%. The top six teams correspond to the top six teams in the Strength Power Rating, so team quality is the biggest factor.

  #  Team                        rec   Overall      Strength     Success
  1. Stanford                    6-0   39.35 [  6]  34.17 [  1]   5.18 [ 10]
  2. Alabama                     7-0   47.63 [  1]  34.11 [  2]  13.51 [  1]
  3. Oklahoma                    6-0   41.87 [  3]  34.05 [  3]   7.81 [  6]
  4. LSU                         7-0   45.32 [  2]  33.67 [  4]  11.64 [  3]
  5. Boise St                    6-0   40.51 [  5]  33.17 [  5]   7.34 [  8]
  6. Wisconsin                   6-0   40.56 [  4]  32.82 [  6]   7.73 [  7]

These six teams—in any order, basically—have been the clear top six in any version of the Strength Power Rating (FBS only or all-division) over the last several weeks. But while there is little difference between the ratings of the top six, there's a huge difference in their remaining schedule strength. Boise State plays a very easy schedule, while Alabama and LSU face each other.

Although only one team is >50% likely to be undefeated, there should be roughly three undefeated teams in total. So although Boise State will probably go undefeated, the other two will likely face off in the national championship game.