When the first BCS standings are announced this evening, look for the Alabama Crimson Tide to be in the #1 position, with a very narrow lead over Oklahoma and LSU, who are essentially tied for #2.
Forecast after release of USA/coaches poll:
Not much changed after the release of the USA poll from our pre-poll projection. LSU didn't gain that much ground on Oklahoma, who remained #1. But we list LSU ahead of the Sooners because they're likely to be ahead in the initial Harris poll which hasn't been released yet. The top three teams are far ahead of the rest of the pack.
Oklahoma State now ranks ahead of Wisconsin since they moved up in the USA poll, but these teams should be very close and in either order. The next "rung" is Clemson, Stanford, and Boise State; Clemson slipped into a tie for 8th in the USA while Boise was passed by Oklahoma State; our projected ordering of these teams doesn't change but the Stanford-Boise tie is now a Clemson-Stanford tie. We still list Clemson ahead as they should be closer to Stanford in the Harris poll than they are in the coaches' poll.
Our projected BCS ranking for Sunday, October 16:
rnk Team W L Comp Polls
1 Alabama 7 0 1 3
2t LSU 7 0 4 2
2t Oklahoma 6 0 6 1
4 Oklahoma St 6 0 2 6
5 Wisconsin 6 0 7 4
6t Clemson 7 0 3 8t
6t Stanford 6 0 10 5
8 Boise St 6 0 8 7
9 Arkansas 5 1 11 10
10 Oregon 5 1 16 8t
11 Nebraska 5 1 12 11
12 Michigan St 5 1 9 13
13 Kansas St 6 0 5 16
14 Virg. Tech 6 1 15 14t
15 S. Carolina 6 1 23 12
16 Michigan 6 1 14 17
Teams with the "bands" could be in any order potentially, and teams listed in a tie are extremely close. But teams in a higher "band" should be ahead of those in a lower grouping, unless the Harris poll has major differences from the USA/coaches poll.
Arkansas and Oregon should be #9 and #10 as we projected earlier (see below). But we've moved Nebraska and Michigan State ahead of Kansas State after the poll release. The Wildcats didn't move up much, probably due to their narrow win. Idle Nebraska moved up more spots, and the Spartans jumped past Kansas State in the USA poll. The spots from #9 to #13 are all pretty tight but this is the order we foresee for tonight's announcement.
We still see Virginia Tech and South Carolina rounding out the top 15, though Michigan might take the final slot instead of the Gamecocks.
Forecast prior to USA/coaches poll availability:
Alabama should be #1 in the computer composite and no lower than the #3 ranking in the USA/coaches poll that they had last week. The Harris poll should correspond pretty well to the USA poll. The #2 BCS ranking will go to either LSU or Oklahoma, depending on whether Oklahoma loses support from their previous #1 USA poll ranking. We list LSU #2 since Oklahoma's performance against Kansas wasn't great, and LSU may be ahead of the Sooners in the Harris poll as they are in the AP poll. Remember, each poll (USA, Harris) counts as much as the computer composite (each is 1/3 of the total).
rnk Team W L Comp Polls
1 Alabama 7 0 1 3
2t LSU 7 0 4 2
2t Oklahoma 6 0 6 1
4 Wisconsin 6 0 7 4
5 Oklahoma St 6 0 2 7
6 Clemson 7 0 3 8
7t Stanford 6 0 10 5
7t Boise St 6 0 8 6
9 Arkansas 5 1 11 10
10 Oregon 5 1 16 9
11 Kansas St 6 0 5 15
12 Nebraska 5 1 12 12
13 Michigan St 5 1 9 16
14 Virg. Tech 6 1 15 14
15 S. Carolina 6 1 23 11
The Tide should end up with a very narrow lead over LSU and Oklahoma, with Wisconsin quite a way behind in 4th place. Oklahoma State might take 4th place as the distance between the Badgers and Cowboys should be minimal, and the latter could be in 2nd place in the computer composite whereas Wisconsin's rank won't be great with their weak schedule.
Clemson, Stanford, and Boise State could be in any order from 6th to 8th. Clemson's rank with the computers will be much better than the other two which should give them the slight edge despite being slightly lower-ranked in the polls. The difference between the Broncos and the Cardinal is too close to call before seeing the updated USA poll.
There's a huge gap between whoever is #8, and #9 Arkansas, the highest-rated team with a loss. Oregon should take the #10 spot, bogged down by a low computer rating. Kansas State's poll ranking is low while their computer ranking will be fairly high. They'll be very close to Oregon, and maybe just a hair ahead of #12 Nebraska. The remaining three teams—Michigan State, Virginia Tech, and South Carolina—could move around if our projected polls rankings for them are different.
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