Three undefeated teams have fallen already on Saturday, as Georgia Tech, Michigan, and Illinois all fell by late Saturday afternoon. Will there be more?
Georgia Tech lost to Virginia 24-21 in only real upset of the three games. But if you look at the facts surrounding the game it wasn't all that unexpected. Virginia was idle last week, giving them two weeks to prepare for the Yellow Jackets' triple-option offense, and that bolsters an opponent's chances measureably. In addition, you might recall GT running back Orwin Smith's statement a few weeks ago that he was itching to face "the tough teams" i.e., Clemson and Virginia Tech, to show what the team could do. That of course gave fire to the teams they play in-between, namely Maryland—who played them close—Virginia, and Miami. When you look ahead to the "tough teams" you better not be looking past anyone else, and clearly Georgia Tech's attitude was that those teams didn't matter.
Michigan's loss to Michigan State was also not too surprising, given how good Michigan State's defense has been this year. In terms of yardage given up (adjusted for opposition), the Spartans were among the very best in both rushing and passing defense going in the game:
Raw Adj Team Rec Total[rank] Rush[rank] Pass[rank]
1 1. Michigan St 4-1 162.4 [ 1] 42.0 [ 2] 120.4 [ 2]
2 2. Central Florida 3-2 227.6 [ 2] 109.1 [27] 118.5 [ 1]
4 3. Penn State 5-1 241.6 [ 3] 48.4 [ 3] 193.2 [24]
12 4. Boise St 5-0 243.1 [ 4] 91.4 [16] 151.7 [ 7]
5 5. LSU 6-0 244.2 [ 5] 28.5 [ 1] 215.6 [47]
All they had to do is prevent Denard Robinson from running wild, and score enough points of their own against the improved Wolverine defense. They did that, winning 28-14. Michigan was driving near the end but the Spartans came up with a pick-6 that put them up for good.
Ohio State beating Illinois was perhaps a bit more of a surprise, but the Illini have followed the path we forecast for them going into the year, namely starting 6-0 and then falling to the Buckeyes. Many were down on Ohio State (and for good reason) but the team is full of talent and at any time they can have a good game. Their defense is still sound which gives them a shot against any time, and they proved that by holding the Illini to 7 points, winning 17-7. Rumors of Ohio State's demise—including potentially missing a bowl game—have been way overblown.
Where does this leave the three teams? I think that Georgia Tech has been exposed again as a team that will run roughshod over unprepared defenses, but good defenses that have time to prepare for the triple-option will beat them every time. They're 6-1 now but could lose 4 out of their last 5, as they face Miami, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Duke, and Georgia.
Michigan is a lot better, particularly on defense, than they were the last two years when they "collapsed" after a strong start. Much of that was due to schedule, and their schedule is a lot tougher over the 2nd half of the season once again. With remaining games against Purdue, Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, and Ohio State, the Wolverines might only finish 8-4, but that would be their best record since 2007.
Illinois has been playing according to plan, based on our pre-season projections. Game-by-game, they should beat Purdue, edge Penn State, beat Michigan at home, lose to Wisconsin, and beat Minnesota, which would put them at 10-2. But beating both Penn State and Michigan might be too tall of a task, so the Illini might finish 9-3 instead. But of the three teams that lost today, their outlook is the best.
The day began with 13 undefeated teams and as of 7pm eastern there were only 10. More will fall, next week if not this week, as squads are whittled down inevitably as the season progresses.
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