The biggest surprise in the initial BCS standings for 2011 is right at the top. Instead of Alabama narrowly leading LSU and Oklahoma, the Tigers are #1 and Alabama is #2. The difference was truly miniscule; LSU's average was .9522 to Alabama's .9519
LSU's rise to the top was mainly because of their big lead at #1 in the Harris poll, which released its first poll along with the BCS standings. We expected the Tigers to be #1 but thought it would be a very tight race; instead, there was plenty of distance between LSU (2819 points) and Alabama (2744) in the Harris poll, with Oklahoma an equally distant third (2684).
Actual BCS Standings for October 16, 2011
BCS proj Team W L
1 2t LSU 7 0
2 1 Alabama 7 0
3 2t Oklahoma 6 0
4 4 Oklahoma St 6 0
5 8 Boise St 6 0
6 5 Wisconsin 6 0
7 6t Clemson 7 0
8 6t Stanford 6 0
9 9 Arkansas 5 1
10 10 Oregon 5 1
11 13 Kansas St 6 0
12 14 Virg. Tech 6 1
13 11 Nebraska 5 1
14 15 S. Carolina 6 1
15 -- W. Virginia 5 1
Other surprises (for us) included Boise State's #5 ranking; we had the Broncos anywhere from #6 to #8, with the latter most likely. Whereas they are #7 in the USA/coaches poll, Boise State ended up #5 in the Harris poll, and that vaulted them over the three teams (Wisconsin, Clemson, and Stanford) that we placed in front of them.
Near the bottom of the top 15, Nebraska's computer composite was lower than we expected and they ended up #13 overall, while Michigan State didn't make the cut (they weren't in the top 25 in two of the computer rankings) finishing at #16. Instead, West Virginia rounded out the top 15.
One interesting point is that Oklahoma State is #1 in the computer composite. We knew they'd be up there, but had them #2 behind Alabama. I'm sure many people are wondering how the Cowboys could rank above the Tide, or even ahead of LSU (who was #3). They did beat Texas A&M, which is probably their best win, as well as 4-2 Texas, but a big reason they're #1 is because of Louisiana-Lafayette! The Ragin' Cajuns are now 6-1, and that's a source of points most people will overlook when rating the Cowboys. Alabama edges LSU with the computers because Arkansas is a better "skin" than Oregon to the computers, since Oregon hasn't played much of anyone. Remember, the computers see only wins and losses, not score margin.
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