Here we project the final 2011 BCS Standings using our "fuzzy logic" win counter, with a power rating designed to work based on partial victories and defeats. We use our pre-season rankings as a starting point and actual results are added each week. This week's current BCS ranking is in the column at the far right; our projection is for where the teams will stand on Sunday, December 4th.
2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - thru week 8 (10/22/2011)
| lw | proj | Team | Proj W | Proj L | BCS Bowl | W | L | BCS rank |
| 1 | 1 | Alabama | 12.0 | 1.0 | BCS Title |
8 | 0 | 2 |
| 4 | 2 | Oklahoma St | 11.0 | 1.0 | BCS Title |
7 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | 3 | LSU | 10.7 | 1.3 | Sugar |
8 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | 4 | Boise St | 11.4 | 0.6 | Fiesta | 7 | 0 | 4 |
| 2 | 5 | Oklahoma | 9.9 | 2.1 | Fiesta | 6 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | 6 | Clemson | 10.6 | 2.4 | Orange | 8 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | 7 | South Carolina | 10.1 | 2.9 | 6 | 1 | 13 | |
| 11 | 8 | Oregon | 11.2 | 1.8 | Rose | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | 9 | Arkansas | 9.2 | 2.8 | 6 | 1 | 10 | |
| 7 | 10 | Stanford | 10.7 | 1.3 | Sugar |
7 | 0 | 6 |
| 15 | 11 | Kansas St | 8.4 | 3.6 | 7 | 0 | 8 | |
| 5 | 12 | Wisconsin | 10.7 | 2.3 | Rose | 6 | 1 | 15 |
| 12 | 13 | Virginia Tech | 10.8 | 2.2 | 7 | 1 | 12 | |
| 13 | 14 | Texas A&M | 8.6 | 3.4 | 5 | 2 | 16 | |
| 14 | 15 | Nebraska | 9.7 | 3.3 | 6 | 1 | 14 | |
| 17 | 16 | Michigan St | 9.2 | 2.8 | 6 | 1 | 11 | |
| 16 | 17 | Auburn | 7.6 | 4.4 | 5 | 3 | 23 | |
| -- |
18 | Texas Tech | 6.6 | 5.4 | 5 | 2 | 20 | |
| 21 | 19 | Georgia | 8.5 | 3.5 | 5 | 2 | 22 | |
| -- | 20 | Penn State | 8.2 | 3.8 | 7 | 1 | 19 | |
| -- |
21 | Texas | 7.5 | 4.5 | 4 | 2 | 24 | |
| 20 | 22 | Michigan | 8.1 | 3.9 | 6 | 1 | 18 | |
| 19 | 23 | Ohio State | 7.9 | 4.1 | 4 | 3 | -- | |
| 24 | 24 | Houston | 10.3 | 1.7 | 7 | 0 | 17 | |
| -- | 25 | Arizona St | 8.2 | 4.8 | 5 | 2 | 21 |
This projection yields the following likely BCS Bowl pairups (changes from last week in bold):
| BCS Championship Game: | Alabama vs. Oklahoma State |
| Rose Bowl: | Wisconsin vs. Oregon |
| Fiesta Bowl: | Oklahoma vs. Boise State |
| Sugar Bowl: | LSU vs. Stanford |
| Orange Bowl: | Clemson vs. Cincinnati |
Two big upsets of top teams, but only one has much effect. Wisconsin lost to Michigan State but remains Rose Bowl bound in our projection; meanwhile Oklahoma's loss throws everything topsy-turvy.
The Sooners ranked #2 and were favored every step of the way, and expected (in a fuzzy logic sense) to finish with about 1 loss. But a hypothetical loss is one thing; a real one knocks you down in both the polls and in the computers. Losing to Texas Tech, who is expected to be good but not great, also didn't do the Sooners any favors. Oklahoma falls to #5 in our projection, still good enough for #2 in the Big Twelve and a Fiesta Bowl berth.
But the top team in the Big Twelve should still go to the BCS Championship, and that team is now expected to be Oklahoma State. The Cowboys move up from #4 to #2, aided by a strong #3 ranking in the current BCS. They, too, are technically expected to have a cumulative "loss" but then again, so is every team (though Boise State is getting close to officially being favored to go undefeated). Of course, the head-to-head game between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State would decide the Big Twelve winner should they both go undefeated until then. Our projections are based on the odds of winning each game, and things look better for Oklahoma State to finish with a better record and stronger BCS ranking than everyone except Alabama. If the Sooners can win out, however, they'll be in as good a position as anyone to be in the title game.
LSU remains #3, reflecting their current position, the liklihood that they won't beat Alabama, and the possibility that they could (which would put them at #1); they're picked for the Sugar Bowl as Alabama's replacement. Boise State moves up to #4 as both the Sooners and the Badgers drop below them. The big help was Wisconsin's loss, as a 1-loss Oklahoma could still pass the Broncos.
Clemson moves up to #6 and is the ACC pick, putting them in the Orange Bowl, while South Carolina is expected to finish all the way up at #7. Being the #3 SEC team precludes their participation in a BCS bowl however. That, and without Marcus Lattimore, this projection is probably more than a bit optimistic. But we'll see.
Oregon has won enough now to reclaim our Pac-12 championship designation. Since we don't pick head-to-head winners in the regular season games, just the percentages, we use the highest finish in our projection as the conference winner, so Oregon gets the extra game against Arizona State. That, and Notre Dame's loss, bump Stanford down to #10 despite their rise to #6 in the current BCS standings.
Every single BCS bowl is affected. As we mentioned, Alabama now faces Oklahoma State in the national title game; Wisconsin takes on Oregon in the Rose Bowl. The Fiesta Bowl now has Oklahoma instead of Oklahoma state, and they have first pick for a 2nd team. Their choices are few, as we have noted before. South Carolina, Arkansas, Kansas State, and Texas A&M are ruled out by the 2-per-conference rule. That leaves Boise State, Stanford, Virginia Tech, and new Big East favorite Cincinnati as the Fiesta choice. Under these conditions, a rematch of the classic 2006 game might be the best bet for the bowl committee.
The Sugar Bowl, already armed with LSU, would probably opt for Stanford, though Virginia Tech would be considered. That leaves Clemson vs. Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl.
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