Here we project the final 2011 BCS Standings using our "fuzzy logic" win counter, with a power rating designed to work based on partial victories and defeats. We use our pre-season rankings as a starting point and actual results are added each week. This week's current BCS ranking is in the column at the far right; our projection is for where the teams will stand on Sunday, December 4th.
2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - thru week 7 (10/15/2011)
| lw | proj | Team | Proj W | Proj L | BCS Bowl | W | L | BCS rank |
| 1 | 1 | Alabama | 12.0 | 1.0 | BCS Title | 7 | 0 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | Oklahoma | 10.9 | 1.1 | BCS Title | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | 3 | LSU | 10.4 | 1.6 | Sugar | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | Oklahoma St | 10.6 | 1.4 | Fiesta | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | 5 | Wisconsin | 11.3 | 1.7 | Rose | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 5 | 6 | Boise St | 11.2 | 0.8 | Sugar | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | 7 | Stanford | 11.5 | 1.5 | Rose | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | 8 | Clemson | 10.2 | 2.8 | Orange | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | 9 | South Carolina | 10.1 | 2.9 | 6 | 1 | 14 | |
| 9 | 10 | Arkansas | 9.0 | 3.0 | 5 | 1 | 9 | |
| 10 | 11 | Oregon | 10.2 | 1.8 | 5 | 1 | 10 | |
| 12 | 12 | Virginia Tech | 10.6 | 2.4 | 6 | 1 | 12 | |
| 16 | 13 | Texas A&M | 8.5 | 3.5 | 4 | 2 | 17 | |
| 14 | 14 | Nebraska | 9.6 | 3.4 | Fiesta | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 19 | 15 | Kansas St | 8.2 | 3.8 | 6 | 0 | 11 | |
| 17 | 16 | Auburn | 7.9 | 4.1 | 5 | 2 | 20 | |
| 25 | 17 | Michigan St | 8.4 | 3.6 | 5 | 1 | 16 | |
| 13 | 18 | Illinois | 9.0 | 3.0 | 6 | 1 | 23 | |
| -- | 19 | Ohio State | 7.9 | 4.1 | 4 | 3 | -- | |
| 15 | 20 | Michigan | 8.1 | 3.9 | 6 | 1 | 18 | |
| 21 | 21 | Georgia | 8.5 | 3.5 | 5 | 2 | -- | |
| 23 | 22 | West Virginia | 8.8 | 3.2 | Orange | 5 | 1 | 15 |
| 24 | 23 | Missouri | 7.1 | 4.9 | 3 | 3 | -- | |
| -- | 24 | Houston | 10.2 | 1.8 | 6 | 0 | 19 | |
| 22 | 25 | Notre Dame | 8.2 | 3.8 | 4 | 2 | -- |
This projection yields the following likely BCS Bowl pairups (changes from last week in bold):
| BCS Championship Game: | Alabama vs. Oklahoma |
| Rose Bowl: | Wisconsin vs. Stanford |
| Fiesta Bowl: | Oklahoma State vs. Nebraska |
| Sugar Bowl: | LSU vs. Boise State |
| Orange Bowl: | Clemson vs. West Virginia |
The first actual BCS rankings came out last Monday and the top four there is the top four here. But the more likely winners of the Alabama-LSU and Oklahoma-Oklahoma State matchups are projected to finish #1 and #2, while the losers are relegated to the Sugar and Fiesta bowls. As last week, Wisconsin and Stanford are paired in the Rose Bowl, Clemson and West Virginia in the Orange, and Boise State goes to the Sugar. And rounding off the pairings that are exactly the same as they were last week, Nebraska holds at #14 to again nab a Fiesta Bowl invite that would otherwise be Oregon's.
What little changed this week was of little real consequence. Whether Clemson is behind or ahead of South Carolina, Arkansas, and Oregon doesn't matter if they win the ACC. And the upward movement of Texas A&M into projected BCS eligibility matters little if they're #3 in the Big Twelve conference. Nebraska's ranking was in line with where we expected, and Oregon fell to #11, which gives the Cornhuskers more of an argument for being included in the bowl picks.
The bigger changes occurred in the lower half of the chart. Kansas State neared projected BCS eligibility, though it hardly matters if they pierce the top 14 while remaining #4 in the conference. Their #15 takes into account opportunity—they absolutely control their own destiny for the Fiesta Bowl, and maybe even for the national title—and chance of collapse, which could put them at 8-4 and near the bottom, or out of, the rankings. After this weekend, their schedule takes a tough turn. Missouri at 3-3 is also in the rankings due to potential for big wins, but as they're expected to lose those games they aren't ranked very high and already have 3 losses.
Also moving up big is Michigan State. By sealing up the Michigan win, the Spartans become a slight favorite in their division. Ohio State's win over Illinois helped them, too, as MSU beat OSU three weeks ago and the Spartans and Illini don't play. Speaking of the Buckeyes, they have a rejuvinated projection despite being 4-3 currently (Miami's win over North Carolina helped), and join the middle of a Big Ten-rich pack from #17 to #20 as Illinois and Michigan slide.
Not much else is different. Houston peeks in at #24, but only winning out would put them in the top 14, and the expected one or two losses keep them well out of BCS contention. Even a 13-0 Houston is behind a 12-0 Boise State, and the latter is more likely. We don't place them in the CUSA title game yet, either, though it doesn't change their projected ranking if they make it there.
Notre Dame didn't get the small support from the computers we thought they might have so they've been re-evaluated downward. They still have a great shot at a BCS bowl if they win out; anything else and they fall short.
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