Here we project the final 2011 BCS Standings using our "fuzzy logic" win counter, with a power rating designed to work based on partial victories and defeats. We use our pre-season rankings as a starting point and actual results are added each week.
2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - Week 5 (10/1/2011)
| lw | proj | Team | Proj W | Proj L | BCS Bowl | W | L | USA rank |
| 2 | 1 | Alabama | 11.84 | 1.16 | BCS Title | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 1 | 2 | Oklahoma | 10.71 | 1.29 | BCS Title | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | LSU | 9.83 | 2.17 | Sugar | 5 | 0 | 2 |
| 4 | 4 | Oklahoma St | 10.25 | 1.75 | Fiesta | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | 5 | Boise St | 11.15 | 0.85 | Sugar | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | 6 | Wisconsin | 11.41 | 1.59 | Rose | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | 7 | Stanford | 11.38 | 1.62 | Rose | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | 8 | Oregon | 10.02 | 1.98 | Fiesta | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | 9 | South Carolina | 9.59 | 3.41 | 4 | 1 | 14 | |
| 12 | 10 | Arkansas | 8.69 | 3.31 | 4 | 1 | 12 | |
| 19 | 11 | Clemson | 9.39 | 3.61 | Orange | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | 12 | Texas | 7.94 | 4.06 | 4 | 0 | 10 | |
| 9 | 13 | Texas A&M | 8.30 | 3.70 | 2 | 2 | 25 | |
| 23 | 14 | Auburn | 7.80 | 4.20 | 4 | 1 | 23 | |
| 14 | 15 | Virginia Tech | 10.10 | 2.90 | 4 | 1 | 17 | |
| 21 | 16 | Illinois | 9.27 | 2.73 | 5 | 0 | 16 | |
| 11 | 17 | Florida | 7.77 | 4.23 | 4 | 1 | 18 | |
| 16 | 18 | Missouri | 7.67 | 4.33 | 2 | 2 | -- | |
| 15 | 19 | Nebraska | 8.70 | 3.30 | 4 | 1 | 15 | |
| 25 | 20 | Michigan | 8.00 | 4.00 | 5 | 0 | 11 | |
| 18 | 21 | Florida St | 9.02 | 2.98 | 2 | 2 | 22 | |
| -- | 22 | Georgia Tech | 7.31 | 4.69 | 5 | 0 | 13 | |
| 20 | 23 | Ohio State | 8.01 | 3.99 | 3 | 2 | -- | |
| -- | 24 | Notre Dame | 7.93 | 4.07 | 3 | 2 | -- | |
| -- | 25 | Kansas St | 6.92 | 5.08 | 4 | 0 | 21 |
This projection yields the following likely BCS Bowl pairups (changes from last week in bold):
| BCS Championship Game: | Alabama vs. Oklahoma |
| Rose Bowl: | Stanford vs. Wisconsin |
| Fiesta Bowl: | Oklahoma State vs. Oregon |
| Sugar Bowl: | LSU vs. Boise State |
| Orange Bowl: | Clemson vs. West Virginia (#26) |
Once again the Orange Bowl projection changes due to upsets, and again Clemson is responsible for most of it. The Tigers beat Virginia Tech and now, holding wins over the two previous favorites, become the favorite themselves. South Florida's loss to Pittsburgh wasn't a big upset but dropped them out of the polls, and now no Big East teams make the projected year-end top 25. The actual conference race is still wide open with Pittsburgh being our favorite, but West Virginia is the highest-rated in our projection so we use them as the Orange Bowl opponent for Clemson.
And again, all of the eligible teams are taken; nine of the top 14 are in BCS bowls, and the five others are crowded out by the two-teams-per-confernence rule. The only team new to the top 14 is Auburn, and they are fifth in line in the SEC. The Big Twelve has four teams in the top 14.
Alabama takes over the top spot from Oklahoma due to beating Florida while the Sooners already had almost full credit for beating Ball State. With South Carolina's loss, Boise State moves up a spot but their future stock went down with TCU's loss. Wisconsin jumped over Stanford due to the Nebraska win but like the announcers mentioned during that game, an undefeated Badger team waits in line behind an undefeated team from the SEC and Big Twelve.
The Big Ten is getting interesting with Illinois and Michigan hoping to challenge Wisconsin for the Rose Bowl slot. Neither is projected as a serious threat but some upset wins could change that. Illinois has had close calls lately and Michigan has to prove it can win on the road. Ohio State's chances dissolved with their loss to Michigan State, but ironically the Spartans aren't in the projected top 25 due to that win. As the new projected winner of the Legends division, they add a championship game with Wisconsin that they're likely to lose, so their overall record suffers. It also helps Nebraska's record, too, as it erases another near-certain loss from the Cornhuskers' slate.
Notre Dame also pokes their head back into the projected final standings. Michigan's continued success helps ease the harm of that loss, and though South Florida lost last week they're 4-1. At 8-4 the Irish wouldn't qualify for a BCS bowl, but at 9-3 they might be under consideration. If they run the table at 10-2, which would include a win over Stanford, they'd be a shoo-in. Their remaining schedule includes three challenges—Air Force, USC, and Navy—all at home, followed by three easier games—Wake Forest, Maryland, and Boston College—with the latter two also at home, before they travel to face the Cardinal.
Comments