2011 Conference Final Standings Projection - week 8: Upsets everywhere

FBS Conference Projected Standings for 2011 season

Updated for games through week 8 (October 22, 2011)

We use "fuzzy logic" which allows for partial wins and losses to project the most likely conference winners based on our pre-season rankings. Actual results are integrated as the season progresses.

rank = projected ranking position at end of season
lw = last week's ranking
proj W = projected conference wins at end of season
proj L = projected conference losses at end of season
W = current actual conference wins
L = current actual conference losses

ACC
rank	lw	Atlantic division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Clemson	7.0	1.0	5	0
2	2	Florida State	5.5	2.5	2	2
3	3	Wake Forest	4.7	3.3	4	1
4	5	North Carolina State	3.5	4.5	1	2
5	4	Maryland	3.3	4.7	1	3
6	6	Boston College	1.5	6.5	0	4
rank	lw	Coastal division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Virginia Tech	6.2	1.8	3	1
2	2	Miami FL	4.4	3.6	2	2
3	3	Georgia Tech	4.0	4.0	3	2
4	4	North Carolina	3.1	4.9	1	3
5	5	Duke	2.5	5.5	1	2
6	6	Virginia	2.2	5.8	1	2

The ACC was one of the few leagues without a major upsets within its ranks. North Carolina State edges past Maryland in the Atlantic, but neither the Wolfpack's win over Virginia nor Maryland's loss to FSU were an upset. Miami beating Georgia Tech wasn't too big of a deal either, though the Yellow Jackets were ranked. It solidifies the 'Canes as a distant #2 to Virginia Tech, who may run away with the Coastal the way Clemson is running away with the Atlantic.

The Tigers face Georgia Tech next weekend. Tech's star has faded rapidly, but they're capable of giving anyone a tough game with their offense, and Clemson's defense is looking worse each week. Their offense is looking better and better, though. Since Clemson's lead in the Atlantic is so vast, a Tech upset would have bigger repercussions for the BCS than for the ACC.

rank	lw	Big East	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	2	Cincinnati	4.9	2.1	2	0
2	1	West Virginia	4.2	2.8	1	1
3	3	Pittsburgh	4.2	2.8	1	1
4	4	Connecticut	3.5	3.5	1	1
5	7	Louisville	3.1	3.9	1	1
6	5	Rutgers	3.0	4.0	2	1
7	8	Syracuse	2.7	4.3	1	1
8	6	South Florida	2.4	4.6	0	3

The screwiest conference in the country, the Big East at one point last week had every team projected within a game of every other team. We had West Virginia at 5-2 and Syracuse at 2-5, with every other team 3-4 or 4-3. So what happens? Of course, Syracuse not only upsets but blows out West Virginia, 49-23. Cincy beat South Florida to put them at an expected 5-2 and USF at about 2-5, and give the Bearcats the projected BCS berth. The difference between the lone undefeated Big East team, and the only winless one? A 37-34 last minute comeback win.

Louisville beat Rutgers to inch past the Scarlet Knights. They play Syracuse next week, while West Virginia takes on Rutgers. Pitt and UConn play Wednesday night. And nobody has any clue which teams are going to win.

Big Ten
rank	lw	Leaders division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Wisconsin	5.9	2.1	2	1
2	4	Penn State	5.2	2.8	4	0
3	3	Ohio State	4.9	3.1	1	2
4	2	Illinois	4.3	3.7	2	2
5	5	Purdue	3.5	4.5	2	1
6	6	Indiana	0.8	7.2	0	4
rank	lw	Legends division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Michigan State	6.2	1.8	3	0
2	2	Nebraska	5.5	2.5	2	1
3	3	Iowa	4.7	3.3	2	1
4	4	Michigan	4.1	3.9	2	1
5	5	Northwestern	1.8	6.2	0	4
6	6	Minnesota	1.4	6.6	0	3

The huge upset that shook the BCS standings—Michigan State over Wisconsin on a last chance power drive, as the Boss would say—had little effect on our Big Ten projections. Wisconsin is enjambed at the top of the Leaders, even as Penn State stands 4-0 after beating Northwestern. Illinois' star continues to fade with the loss to Purdue, their first actual upset win or loss this year. The Boilermakers distance themselves further from Indiana, but stay in 5th place.

On the Legends side, Michigan State broadens their lead over Nebraska, but the two still have to play, and it happens this Saturday in a game that probably should determine the division winner. Back in the Leaders, Ohio State hosts Wisconsin and if the Badgers are down, the Buckeyes can get right back in the race. Penn State hosts Illinois and a win, coupled by an Ohio State upset, would put the Nittany Lions in charge of the division big time.

rank	lw	Big Twelve	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	2	Oklahoma State	8.0	1.0	4	0
2	1	Oklahoma	6.9	2.1	3	1
3	3	Texas A&M	6.6	2.4	3	1
4	4	Kansas State	5.4	3.6	4	0
5	5	Missouri	4.6	4.4	1	3
6	6	Texas	4.5	4.5	1	2
7	8	Texas Tech	3.6	5.4	2	2
8	7	Baylor	3.0	6.0	1	2
9	9	Iowa State	1.7	7.3	0	4
10	10	Kansas	0.6	8.4	0	4

Another conference, another big upset, and this one—Texas Tech over Oklahoma—knocked the Sooners out of the projected #1 spot in the Big Twelve. Both the Sooners and the new #1 Cowboys are expected to take another loss somewhere—one will be when the two teams meet—and that would leave Oklahoma State 8-1, Oklahoma 7-2. The Red Raiders, for all the hoopla of their win, still look like the #7 team in the tough league.

Everything else went to plan last weekend. Coming up this Saturday, Texas A&M travels to Missouri who can't seem to catch a break: their three conference losses are to undefeated Oklahoma State and Kansas State, and 1-loss Oklahoma, which is why they still project at #5. Presumably better times are ahead for the Tigers, just not this weekend, and not if this constant losing hurts their confidence in later games. In other action, ever-dangerous Baylor heads to Oklahoma State, so look for a shootout there, and in the Big Twelve's biggest game, Oklahoma goes to Kansas State to give the Wildcats their first major test.

Pac-12
rank	lw	North division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Oregon	8.2	0.8	4	0
2	2	Stanford	7.9	1.1	5	0
3	3	Washington	5.0	4.0	3	1
4	4	California	3.8	5.2	1	3
5	5	Oregon State	3.8	5.2	2	2
6	6	Washington State	2.2	6.8	1	3
rank	lw	South division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Arizona State	6.1	2.9	3	1
2	2	USC	5.6	3.4	3	1
3	3	UCLA	4.5	4.5	2	2
4	5	Arizona	3.2	5.8	1	4
5	4	Utah	2.7	6.3	0	4
6	6	Colorado	1.1	7.9	0	4

The Pac-12 avoided the major upset bug, but some of the victory margins were god awful. We knew Arizona would start winning eventually as their schedule eased, but 48-12 over UCLA? And we had Cal over Utah at the beginning of the year, but not 34-0. The two results cause the only position shift in the rankings as the Wildcats move past the Utes in the lower reaches of the South.

This weekend the big game is Stanford at USC. The Trojans can't win the South, but they can be a spoiler in the North and in the BCS by beating the Cardinal. Are they the Michigan State to Stanford's Wisconsin? The comparison isn't bad. Stanford rolled over Washington the same way Wisconsin rolled Nebraska, but both of those games happened at home. A team's first real road test often comes up sour, and USC is very confident right now.
  

SEC
rank	lw	East division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	South Carolina	6.0	2.0	4	1
2	2	Georgia	5.7	2.3	4	1
3	3	Florida	3.7	4.3	2	3
4	4	Kentucky	2.5	5.5	0	3
5	5	Vanderbilt	1.9	6.1	1	3
6	6	Tennessee	1.6	6.4	0	4
rank	lw	West division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Alabama	7.3	0.7	5	0
2	2	LSU	6.7	1.3	5	0
3	3	Arkansas	5.2	2.8	2	1
4	4	Auburn	4.6	3.4	3	2
5	5	Mississippi State	2.2	5.8	0	4
6	6	Mississippi	0.6	7.4	0	4

Arkansas was almost the SEC representative in Upset Week. But they pulled out a 29-24 comeback win to preserve their status as distant third in the West.

Alabama and LSU play in two weeks, so this weekend will be unimportant for the West, but the East has the annual Georgia-Florida grudge match. Even a Florida win probably doesn't move the Gators up to #2, but it would crush the Bulldogs' chance of making it to the SEC title game. South Carolina faces Tennessee without Marcus Lattimore; the Volunteers are looking for their first SEC win this year and might smell blood.
  

CUSA
rank	lw	East division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Southern Miss	5.7	2.3	2	1
2	2	Central Florida	4.6	3.4	1	2
3	3	East Carolina	4.1	3.9	2	1
4	4	Marshall	3.9	4.1	2	2
5	5	UAB	3.0	5.0	1	3
6	6	Memphis	1.3	6.7	1	3
rank	lw	West division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Tulsa	7.0	1.0	3	0
2	2	Houston	6.3	1.7	3	0
3	3	Southern Methodist	5.2	2.8	3	1
4	5	Rice	2.7	5.3	1	3
5	6	UTEP	2.2	5.8	1	2
6	4	Tulane	2.0	6.0	1	3

Speaking of huge upsets, did you see winless Alabama-Birmingham beat Central Florida on Thursday night? No? UCF was already out of our top position in the East and UAB ahead of Memphis, but the Blazers' 26-24 victory kept each team moving toward the middle. Memphis got their first win, too, upsetting Tulane who now looks like the bottom dog in the West. And projected East winner Southern Miss showed they won't just roll over to the eventual West winner, as they demolished SMU 27-3.

Houston and Tulsa continued their march toward a showdown. It's not quite Alabama-LSU but for the C-USA, it's similar. Both teams have to stay undefeated all the way to November 26, however. This weekend sees Houston hosting Rice and Tulsa against SMU, which will test how far the Golden Hurricane have really come since their early blowout losses against three top-ten teams.
  

MAC
rank	lw	East division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Temple	5.0	3.0	3	2
2	2	Miami OH	4.2	3.8	1	2
3	3	Ohio	3.8	4.2	2	2
4	5	Bowling Green	3.6	4.4	2	2
5	4	Kent State	3.2	4.8	0	3
6	6	Buffalo	2.4	5.6	1	3
7	7	Akron	0.9	7.1	0	3
rank	lw	West division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	2	Toledo	6.3	1.7	4	0
2	1	Northern Illinois	6.2	1.8	3	1
3	3	Western Michigan	4.8	3.2	2	2
4	5	Ball State	4.3	3.7	3	1
5	6	Eastern Michigan	3.9	4.1	3	1
6	4	Central Michigan	3.2	4.8	1	3

From a pre-season vantage point, this might have been the biggest upset of all last week: Eastern Michigan 16, Western Michigan 14. The Broncos were still in the thick of the West race despite losing to Northern Illinois, but the Eagles put turned it into a two-team race. Speaking of which, Northern Illinois held on to beat Buffalo, 31-30, on a Bulls' failed extra point, but Toledo gained more ground with their win over Miami of Ohio and now are officially our favorite to win the West. Ball State beat Central Michigan, 31-27, sending the Chippewas to the cellar in a division where no other team currently has a losing record.

How much better is the West than the East? The West is 16-8 in conference play, the East 9-17. That's hard to do when the majority of league play is within the divisions. Only Temple—who also fell victim to a big upset, losing to Bowling Green 13-10—has a winning conference record in the East. There are no big conference games this weekend, but Toledo plays NIU on Tuesday, November 1st.
  

rank	lw	Mountain West	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	2	Boise State	6.4	0.6	2	0
2	1	TCU	6.3	0.7	3	0
3	3	San Diego State	4.8	2.2	1	1
4	4	Air Force	3.8	3.2	0	3
5	5	Wyoming	2.3	4.7	1	0
6	6	Colorado State	2.3	4.7	1	1
7	7	UNLV	1.1	5.9	0	1
8	8	New Mexico	0.9	6.1	0	2

Boise's win over Air Force wasn't pretty, but it was enough to re-establish the proper pecking order with the Broncos at the top. It might have given TCU some hope that they can compete with Boise on the blue turf however. For Air Force, it was probably their last conference loss; currently 0-3, they should handle the bottom four teams pretty easily and finish #4. The only real battles, other than for #1, look like Wyoming and Colorado State vying for 5th place, and UNLV and New Mexico for last place. The Mountain West is the opposite of the disorderly Big East.

rank	lw	Sun Belt	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Arkansas State	7.0	1.0	3	0
2	2	Louisiana Lafayette	5.1	2.9	4	1
3	3	Florida International	4.7	3.3	1	2
4	5	Western Kentucky	4.6	3.4	3	1
5	4	Louisiana Monroe	3.9	4.1	1	2
6	6	Troy	3.8	4.2	1	2
7	7	North Texas	3.7	4.3	2	2
8	8	Middle Tennessee St	2.5	5.5	1	2
9	9	Florida Atlantic	0.6	7.4	0	4

Upsets can even happen to the hottest teams. Just when it looked like Louisiana-Lafayette was going to make a run at Arkansas State in our projection, the Ragin' Cajuns were upended by Western Kentucky, 42-23. That wasn't an upset from a pre-season view, but ULL was 6-1 going in, with their only loss to Oklahoma State. ULL remains the #2 team in our projection, but drop farther behind the Red Wolves who handled FIU convincingly, 34-16, by dominating the 4th quarter.

This projection doesn't include FIU's Tuesday night overtime win over Troy, but little would change if it did—except that the Trojans would be in 7th place instead of 6th.
  

rank	lw	WAC	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Nevada	6.3	0.7	2	0
2	2	Fresno State	4.4	2.6	2	1
3	3	Hawaii	4.2	2.8	2	1
4	5	Louisiana Tech	4.1	2.9	2	1
5	4	San Jose State	4.0	3.0	2	1
6	6	Utah State	2.0	5.0	0	2
7	7	New Mexico State	1.5	5.5	1	2
8	8	Idaho	1.4	5.6	0	3

Nevada fended off Fresno State last weekend to stay perfect and remain a solid #1 in our WAC projections. Their opponent this weekend is New Mexico State, so they should be staying on top. Louisiana Tech, who inched past San Jose State by beating Utah State, hosts the Spartans this weekend in a game that should help clear out the logjam in the contest for 2nd place. Four teams are 2-1 in the league and all are projected to finish 4-3, more or less.