2011 Conference Final Standings Projection, week 7: Parity scrambles Big East once again

FBS Conference Projected Standings for 2011.

Updated for games through October 15, 2011. Non-AQ conferences without ranking changes are not listed; for last week's projections click here.

We use "fuzzy logic" which allows for partial wins and losses to project the most likely conference winners based on our pre-season rankings. Actual results are integrated as the season progresses.

rank = projected ranking position at end of season
lw = last week's ranking
proj W = projected conference wins at end of season
proj L = projected conference losses at end of season
W = current actual conference wins
L = current actual conference losses

ACC
rank	lw	Atlantic division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Clemson	6.6	1.4	4	0
2	2	Florida State	5.4	2.6	1	2
3	3	Wake Forest	4.1	3.9	3	1
4	4	Maryland	3.4	4.6	1	2
5	5	North Carolina State	3.2	4.8	0	2
6	6	Boston College	1.8	6.2	0	3
rank	lw	Coastal division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Virginia Tech	5.9	2.1	2	1
2	4	Miami FL	4.3	3.7	1	2
3	2	Georgia Tech	4.2	3.8	3	1
4	3	North Carolina	3.5	4.5	1	2
5	5	Duke	3.1	4.9	1	1
6	6	Virginia	2.5	5.5	1	1

No change in the Atlantic projection, as Virginia Tech rained on Wake Forest's ambitions to finish higher than #3 despite their current 3-1 record. The Hokies have a comfortable lead in the Coastal, especially after Georgia Tech lost to bottom-dweller Virginia. The Yellow Jackets play at Miami and can take back 2nd place with a win. The Cavaliers didn't escape the cellar despite their big upset win, but they have yet to play Duke and if their win was anything but a fluke they should take 5th place.

rank	lw	Big East	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	West Virginia	4.8	2.2	1	0
2	3	Cincinnati	4.4	2.6	1	0
3	2	Pittsburgh	4.2	2.8	1	1
4	7	Connecticut	3.5	3.5	1	1
5	6	Rutgers	3.2	3.8	2	0
6	4	South Florida	3.0	4.0	0	2
7	5	Louisville	2.9	4.1	0	1
8	8	Syracuse	2.0	5.0	0	1

Only West Virginia and Syracuse held at the top and bottom of the projection from last week; that's what happens when there's a 1-game difference between the #2 and #7 teams. Cincinnati inched ahead of Pitt, who lost a non-conference game to Utah that suggests that they're overprojected at #3. Meanwhile UConn beat South Florida, sending the Bulls down to #6 and the Huskies all the way to #4. In-between, Rutgers scored an impressive non-conference win over Navy that doesn't affect our numbers, but in contrast to Pitt suggests that the Scarlet Knights will make their way higher than #5. Projecting this conference is sort of a nightmare, but we're confident with the top and bottom 1 or 2 teams. For now.

Big Ten
rank	lw	Leaders division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Wisconsin	6.6	1.4	2	0
2	2	Illinois	5.0	3.0	2	1
3	4	Ohio State	4.9	3.1	1	2
4	3	Penn State	4.8	3.2	3	0
5	5	Purdue	2.8	5.2	1	1
6	6	Indiana	0.9	7.1	0	3
rank	lw	Legends division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	2	Michigan State	5.4	2.6	2	0
2	1	Nebraska	5.2	2.8	1	1
3	4	Iowa	4.5	3.5	1	1
4	3	Michigan	4.1	3.9	2	1
5	5	Northwestern	2.2	5.8	0	3
6	6	Minnesota	1.6	6.4	0	2

Ohio State came to life with a win over Illinois; it doesn't quite put them past the Illini but if they both finish 5-3 the Buckeyes win the tie-breaker now. It does edge them past Penn State who didn't gain a lot by beating Purdue, and has a tough remaining schedule which offsets their 3-0 record. The difference between the #2 and #4 teams is miniscule and one big win could vault the Lions to the #2 spot; #1 is pretty much reserved for the Badgers.

The Legends division remains a puzzle that changes week to week. With Nebraska idle, Michigan State's big win over Michigan makes the Spartans the narrow favorite. The Wolverines fall below Iowa. As in the Big East, the Legends division contenders are separated by a single win and most have yet to play.

The big game this week is Wisconsin vs. Michigan State, both projected division winners; the four other contests should be walkovers, so any upset would change things greatly.
 

rank	lw	Big Twelve	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Oklahoma	7.9	1.1	3	0
2	2	Oklahoma State	7.6	1.4	3	0
3	3	Texas A&M	6.5	2.5	2	1
4	6	Kansas State	5.1	3.9	3	0
5	4	Missouri	5.1	3.9	1	2
6	5	Texas	4.5	4.5	1	2
7	8	Baylor	3.0	6.0	1	2
8	7	Texas Tech	2.6	6.4	1	2
9	9	Iowa State	1.9	7.1	0	3
10	10	Kansas	0.9	8.1	0	3

Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M are a very strong top three in the Big Twelve. Finally moving up to #4 is Kansas State, who has yet to play any of the top three and isn't expected to seriously challenge for one of the top spots. They hold a win over #5 Missouri. Texas slips a spot to #6 due to the Wildcats' upward vault; they've already played two of the top three and should have a strong finish at 5-4 or 4-5. Texas Tech's loss to Kansas State drops them to #8, bumping Baylor up to #7 even though they lost to A&M last weekend.

Pac-12
rank	lw	North division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Oregon	8.2	0.8	3	0
2	2	Stanford	7.8	1.2	4	0
3	3	Washington	5.0	4.0	3	0
4	4	California	3.5	5.5	0	3
5	5	Oregon State	3.4	5.6	1	2
6	6	Washington State	2.5	6.5	1	2
rank	lw	South division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Arizona State	6.1	2.9	3	1
2	2	USC	5.6	3.4	3	1
3	3	UCLA	4.8	4.2	2	1
4	4	Utah	3.0	6.0	0	3
5	5	Arizona	2.8	6.2	0	4
6	6	Colorado	1.1	7.9	0	3

No change at all in the Pac-12 projections. Oregon beat South leader ASU, but they'll have to beat Stanford on the road when the time comes. Washington beat Colorado to remain #3 in the North, and some talk is starting about them challenging for the division title; don't believe it for a second. We show them at 5-4 here, and 6-3 might give them more of a benefit of the doubt, but they almost certainly won't beat either Oregon nor Stanford, let alone both. They get their shot at the Cardinal on Saturday, in Stanford. Best of luck, Huskies.

The South remains the same too. ASU already beat USC, who is ineligible, leaving UCLA the Sun Devils' principle challenger. The most interesting game featuring a Pac-12 South team is the non-conference USC-Notre Dame game.

SEC
rank	lw	East division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	South Carolina	6.0	2.0	4	1
2	2	Georgia	5.7	2.3	4	1
3	3	Florida	3.7	4.3	2	3
4	4	Kentucky	2.5	5.5	0	3
5	5	Vanderbilt	1.9	6.1	1	3
6	6	Tennessee	1.7	6.3	0	3
rank	lw	West division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Alabama	7.3	0.7	4	0
2	2	LSU	6.4	1.6	4	0
3	3	Arkansas	5.0	3.0	1	1
4	4	Auburn	4.9	3.1	3	1
5	5	Mississippi State	2.2	5.8	0	4
6	6	Mississippi	0.7	7.3	0	3

Like the Pac-12, the SEC didn't budge due to last weekend's games either. Georgia continues to win, foiling those who thought they'd fold after starting 0-2. The most interesting development in the conference was Marcus Lattimore's injury, which puts South Carolina's projected East title in jeopardy. We don't factor that in, so the Bulldogs could end up with the title. The Gamecocks hold the head-to-head tiebreaker though, so if they can stay even they win.

The West is all Alabama and LSU, as seen by both the projection and the current standings. Auburn is 3-1 but not a factor unless they can beat LSU this weekend. Don't count on that, as they're playing on the road and in any case aren't nearly as good as the Tigers.

CUSA
rank	lw	East division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	2	Southern Miss	5.4	2.6	1	1
2	1	Central Florida	5.3	2.7	1	1
3	3	East Carolina	4.1	3.9	2	1
4	4	Marshall	4.0	4.0	2	1
5	5	UAB	2.3	5.7	0	3
6	6	Memphis	0.5	7.5	0	3
rank	lw	West division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Tulsa	6.9	1.1	2	0
2	2	Houston	6.2	1.8	2	0
3	3	Southern Methodist	5.5	2.5	3	0
4	4	Tulane	2.9	5.1	1	2
5	5	Rice	2.8	5.2	1	2
6	6	UTEP	2.2	5.8	1	2

Southern Miss jumps back up to the top spot in the East—or rather, floats up as Central Florida crashes and burns by losing to SMU. As of now the three top West teams are projected to finish with better records than the top team in the East, so the conference title game will be played in the West. Who that opponent will be is a mystery; Tulsa is unbeaten at 2-0 and was the pre-season favorite, but Houston and SMU are also unbeaten in conference play and have looked tough. The Golden Hurricane are hard to judge due to their crushing pre-conference slate, but with Demaris Johnson not coming back at all this season, they may be hard-pressed to beat the Cougars and Mustangs.

This weekend, one potential title game matchup is previewed as SMU faces Southern Miss on Saturday.

MAC
rank	lw	East division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Temple	5.8	2.2	3	1
2	3	Miami OH	4.6	3.4	1	1
3	2	Ohio	3.6	4.4	1	2
4	4	Kent State	3.2	4.8	0	3
5	5	Bowling Green	2.9	5.1	1	2
6	6	Buffalo	2.4	5.6	1	2
7	7	Akron	1.1	6.9	0	2
rank	lw	West division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	2	Northern Illinois	6.2	1.8	2	1
2	3	Toledo	6.0	2.0	3	0
3	1	Western Michigan	5.8	2.2	2	1
4	4	Central Michigan	3.8	4.2	1	2
5	5	Ball State	3.8	4.2	2	1
6	6	Eastern Michigan	3.0	5.0	2	1

In the East, Ohio's surprising loss to Ball State drops the Bobcats to #3 behind Miami of Ohio, who doesn't look capable of challenging Temple for the crown. The West's first showdown among the big three resulted in a Northern Illinois win over Western Michigan, sending the Broncos down to #3 and NIU back to the top. But Toledo is 3-0 and hasn't looked bad all year, and already blasted Temple; if they play their best they'll win the West outright, no tiebreakers necessary.

rank	lw	Mountain West	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	TCU	6.3	0.7	2	0
2	2	Boise State	6.2	0.8	1	0
3	4	San Diego State	4.8	2.2	1	1
4	3	Air Force	4.0	3.0	0	2
5	6	Wyoming	2.3	4.7	1	0
6	5	Colorado State	2.3	4.7	1	1
7	7	UNLV	1.1	5.9	0	1
8	8	New Mexico	0.9	6.1	0	1

TCU holds its faux lead over Boise (due to beating the #3 and #4 teams already), and their matchup will easily be the most important game of the MWC season. The 2nd most important game was played last weekend to decide the #3 position, and San Diego State scored a mild upset by beating Air Force 41-27. The Falcons have to turn around and face Boise State in Boise. The only other intra-conference game is TCU vs. New Mexico in Fort Worth, where the Horned Frogs are a 41 point favorite.

rank	lw	Sun Belt	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Arkansas State	6.5	1.5	2	0
2	3	Louisiana Lafayette	5.5	2.5	4	0
3	2	Florida International	5.1	2.9	1	1
4	7	Louisiana Monroe	4.3	3.7	1	1
5	5	Western Kentucky	4.3	3.7	2	1
6	4	Troy	3.8	4.2	1	2
7	6	North Texas	3.3	4.7	1	2
8	8	Middle Tennessee St	2.1	5.9	0	2
9	9	Florida Atlantic	1.1	6.9	0	3

Note: this projection does not factor in results from tonight's (Tuesday) Arkansas State-FIU game.

The Red Wolves are still looking strong at #1, but beyond that everything's in flux. The Louisiana teams continue to outperform and the ULL Ragin' Cajuns look like the #2 team in the league; at 4-0 they're #1 in the current standings but we favor Arkansas State head-to-head. FIU drops another notch and ULM jumps into a tie for 4th after upsetting Troy, knocking the Trojans into the lower half of the conference. Crazy!

rank	lw	WAC	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Nevada	6.1	0.9	1	0
2	2	Hawaii	4.7	2.3	1	0
3	3	Fresno State	4.5	2.5	2	0
4	4	Louisiana Tech	3.7	3.3	1	1
5	5	San Jose State	3.5	3.5	1	1
6	6	Utah State	2.4	4.6	0	1
7	8	New Mexico State	1.6	5.4	1	1
8	7	Idaho	1.4	5.6	0	3

The only changes from last week happened at the very bottom, where New Mexico State's win over Idaho put the Aggies on top of the Vandals. That's how they're likely to stay given the way Idaho has been playing. This weekend, projected #1 Nevada hosts current league leader Fresno State (2-0) to prove they belong on top.