SportsRatings: College Football

Projected BCS Standings for Sunday October 30, 2011

No surprise that LSU and Alabama, who were idle this weekend before their showdown next Saturday, should remain #1 in the BCS standings. Oklahoma State will remain #3, but after that it's a bit foggy.

Stanford might pass Boise State for #4. The Cardinal will rise in the computers for beating USC, regardless of how close the game was. They're already ahead in the human polls. Oklahoma should be #6 after beating 1-loss Kansas State.

Oregon and Arkansas won't make much progress with the computers, and may even slide a notch, for their wins this week. Most of their previous opponents lost during the weekend, which didn't help. But Oregon should remain #7, and Arkansas move up to #8 as Clemson and Kansas State fall.

This Sunday's projected BCS Standings (USA ranking actual; computer composite and Harris projected)

lw   proj   Team         W   L   Comp   USA  Harris
1     1     LSU          8   0     3     1     1
2     2     Alabama      8   0     2     2     2
3     3     Oklahoma St  8   0     1     4     3
6     4     Stanford     8   0     6     3     4
4     5     Boise St     7   0     5     5     5
9     6     Oklahoma     7   1     4     7     7
7     7     Oregon       7   1    13     6     6
10    8     Arkansas     7   1     9     8     8
14    9     Nebraska     7   1    10     9     9
5     10    Clemson      8   1     7    12    11
12    11    V. Tech      8   1     8    11    12
13    12    S. Carolina  7   1    12    10    10
17    13    Houston      8   0    14    14    14
18    14    Michigan     7   1    19    13    13
8     15    Kansas St    7   1    11    19    17

Nebraska could be as high as #9 but their computer ranking is uncertain; they should place somewhere within the 9 to 12 band above. Virginia Tech is inexplicably ahead of Clemson (who beat them 23-3) in the USA/Coaches poll, something the Harris voters hopefully don't replicate, but most of the computers should have Clemson ahead. South Carolina should move up a small amount.

Houston and Michigan round out the magic top 14, which is a required placement for at-large BCS bowl bids. Kansas State should still be near the top 10 in the computer composite as the computers don't know they lost 58-17, but the pollsters know and have dropped the Wildcats to #19 in the USA. Penn State might take the #15 spot from Kansas State but after that the dropoff is pretty steep. Two Big Ten teams, Michigan State and Wisconsin, will fall out of the top 15.

2011 SportsRatings Top 25 - week 9: Dominoes start to fall

The SportsRatings Weekly Top 25 is a subjective ranking of the top 25 college football teams in the style of the AP or USA/Coaches poll. Our rankings properly reflect head-to-head results and give additional consideration to teams who have victories over other top 25 teams.

Even with three undefeated teams idle this week, two more—and very nearly a third—fell this week. #1 Alabama, #3 Louisiana State, and #4 Boise State didn't play this weekend, perhaps saving them from a scare of their own. Of course, either Alabama or LSU will lose on November 5th when the two teams meet. It could have been a meeting of #1 vs. #2, but #2 Stanford pulled out a triple-overtime win at USC to remain unbeaten. Even so, we were set to drop them to #3 for the scare, but they are one of two undefeated teams to have beaten two top 25 foes, so they remain at #2. #5 Oklahoma State had little trouble with Baylor's high-powered offense, winning 59-24.

Oregon moves up a spot to #6; they've won seven straight since losing to LSU. Nebraska and Oklahoma notched big wins and jump six spots each. Both teams have two top 25 wins but Nebraska gets the edge since their loss is to a top 25 team. They beat Michigan State 24-3 while Oklahoma crushed previously unbeated Kansas State 58-17. Arkansas holds at #9 after a tepid comeback win over Vanderbilt, while Clemson—the other unbeaten that fell—drops to #10 after losing 31-17 to Georgia Tech.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week 9 (thru 10/29/2011)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Alabama	8-0	wArk 38-14, @PennSt 27-11
2	2	Stanford	8-0	w@USC 54-46ot, Wash 65-21
3	3	Louisiana State	8-0	wOregon 40-27
4	4	Boise State	7-0	w@Georgia 35-21
5	5	Oklahoma State	8-0	w@Texas 38-26, @TexAM 30-29
7	6	Oregon	7-1	L@LSU 40-27; wASU 41-27
13	7	Nebraska	7-1	L@Wisc 48-17; wMichSt 24-3, Wash 51-38
14	8	Oklahoma	7-1	L TxTech 41-38; w@KSt 58-17, =Texas 55-17
9	9	Arkansas	7-1	L@Alabama 38-14; w=TexAM 42-38
6	10	Clemson	8-1	L@GTech 31-17; w@VTech 23-3
19	11	Penn State	8-1	L Alabama 27-11; wIllinois 10-7
12	12	Virginia Tech	8-1	L Clemson 23-3
16	13	South Carolina	7-1	L Auburn 16-13; w@Georgia 45-42
18	14	Houston	8-0
10	15	Michigan St	6-2	L@ND 31-13, @Neb 24-3; wWisc 37-31, Mich 28-14
11	16	Wisconsin	6-2	L@OSU 33-29, @MichSt 37-31; wNeb 48-17
17	17	Michigan	7-1	L@MichSt 28-14
8	18	Kansas State	7-1	L Oklahoma 58-17; w@TxTech 41-34
23	19	Arizona State	6-2	L@Oregon 41-27, @ILL 17-14; wUSC 43-22
--	20	Georgia Tech	7-2	L@Virg 24-21, @Miami 24-7; wClem 31-17
--	21	Georgia	6-2	L SCar 45-42, BoiseSt 35-21
15	22	Southern Cal	6-2	L@ASU 43-22, Stan 54-46ot
24	23	Cincinnati	6-1	L@Tenn 45-23
25	24	Southern Miss	7-1	L@Marshall 26-20
--	25t	Washington	6-2	L@Stan 65-21, @Neb 51-38
--	25t	Texas	5-2	L=OK 55-17, OKst 38-26
		out:
20	--	Texas A&M	5-3	L Mizz 38-31ot, OKst 30-29, =Ark 42-38;  w@TxTech 45-40
21	--	Texas Tech	6-3	L IowaSt 41-7, TexAM 45-40, KSt 41-34;  w@OK 41-38
22	--	Illinois	6-3	L OhioSt 17-7, @Purdue 21-14, @PSU 10-7;  wASU 17-14

Penn State makes a big jump from #19 to #11 after beating Illinois 10-7 and knocking the Illini out of the rankings. Their move wasn't so much from the win as from the fact that their sole loss is to #1 Alabama, which puts them on par with #9 Arkansas and #12 Virginia Tech, who lost only to Clemson (and barely escaped Duke this weekend). South Carolina moves to #13 after beating Tennessee 14-3, and Houston follows at #14. The Cougars remained unbeaten by dispatching Rice 73-34.

Michigan State and Wisconsin both lost, and drop 5 spots each. The Spartans fell to Nebraska while the Badgers lost their 2nd straight game, both road games decided by a long touchdown pass late in the game. Michigan holds at #17, while Kansas State drops to #18 due to their blowout loss to Oklahoma.

Arizona State beat Colorado 48-14 this weekend and moves up to #19; the Sun Devils previously beat Southern Cal 43-22, so the 6-2 Trojans fall below them to #22. One spot ahead at #21 is Georgia, who was ranked #26 pre-season but never made our top 25 until now. Both USC and the Bulldogs have two losses to top 25 teams. Re-entering at #20 is Georgia Tech; the Yellow Jackets fell out last week but their win over Clemson puts them back in.

#23 Cincinnati was idle and #24 Southern Miss beat UTEP. Tied at #25 are two more teams that, like USC and Georgia, have only lost to ranked teams. But Texas and Washington both have a huge blowout loss on their résumé, relegating them to sharing the #25 spot.

Texas A&M's third close loss dumps them from the rankings, and Texas Tech was embarrassed by Iowa State 41-7 on the weekend following their huge upset of Oklahoma. Illinois dropped their third game in a row after starting 6-0.

2011 Heisman Race, week 8: Most candidates fall flat

Everyone has a bad week now and then, including the majority of the Heisman Race cohort. Normally the contenders are attempting to out-do each other with stellar performances every week, and a dud is ruinous to your chances. But this week was full of fail for the larger part of our list. Russell Wilson's team lost, LaMichael James was out again with injury, Denard Robinson and Robert Griffin's teams were idle, Oklahoma (Landry Jones and Ryan Broyles) was upset, and Justin Blackmon was injured. Marcus Lattimore is of course out for the season, and Trent Richardson had fewer than 100 yards. That leaves three quarterbacks, and the top two didn't have their best games. Only Case Keenum had an unequivocal good game last weekend.

Andrew Luck had a relatively good outing. He didn't make mistakes and Stanford blew out ranked Washington 65-21. But his team ran the ball most of the time, and he finished with fewer than 200 passing yards. Kellen Moore had to fight off a pesky Air Force team that threatened Boise State at home. In the end, though, these two performances were among the best of the week for our group, and they remain #1 and #2. That's also because our #3 candidate, Russell Wilson, had a bad evening against Michigan State. He threw two interceptions, one on a very ill-advised attempt, and seemingly lost control of the game at times. He did throw two TD passes and run for another. He remains #3 for now but his candidacy is harmed by the loss.

LaMichael James' candidacy is in jeopardy as he misses his 2nd consecutive game for Oregon. Still the leading per-game rusher, he has only 5 or 6 more chances to impress voters and rack up yards. His shot at winning is probably past but he could still get to New York if he returns soon—very soon. Otherwise he'll probably dwindle down to somewhere in the top 10. He falls below idle Denard Robinson this week. Robinson is forgotten but not gone, and his performance over the next few weeks will determine whether he can stay in the top five.

2011 Heisman Race after week 8

1. Andrew Luck, QB-Stanford (7-0)
   145-202 72% 1888yd 20TD 3int; 16rsh 83yd 5.2av 1TD 0fmb; 1rec 13yds 0TD
   Luck only threw 21 passes (169 yards, 2 TDs) as Stanford ran all over the Huskies.
   
2. Kellen Moore, QB-Boise State (7-0)
   174-228 76% 1998yd 24TD 5int; 8rsh -12yd -1.5av 0TD 0fmb
   Moore's numbers are nearly identical to Luck's. He was 26 of 30 last weekend.
3. Russell Wilson, QB-Wisconsin (6-1)
   109-149 73% 1780yd 16TD 3int; 32rsh 212yd 6.6av 3TD 0fmb; 1rec 25yds 1TD
   Wilson threw two interceptions in Wisconsin's loss to Michigan State.
4. ^ Denard Robinson, QB-Michigan (6-1)
   76-141 54% 1253yd 11TD 10int; 120rsh 762yd 6.4av 9TD 0fmb
   Michigan did not play last weekend.
5. v LaMichael James, RB-Oregon (6-1)
   95rsh 852yd 9.0ave 8TD 0fmb; 11rec 159yd 1TD; 137ret yds 1TD
   James was out again, still no word on his exact return date.
6. ^ Case Keenum, QB-Houston (7-0)
   194-266 73% 2685yd 23TD 2int; 26rsh 40yd 1.5av 0TD 1fmb
   Keenum completed 24 of 28 passes for 6 touchdowns against Marshall.
7. v Robert Griffin III, QB-Baylor (4-2)
   142-182 78% 1950yd 22TD 2int; 72rsh 295yd 4.1av 2TD 2fmb; 15 rec yds
   Baylor was idle last weekend.
   
8. Trent Richardson, RB-Alabama (8-0)
   149rsh 989yd 6.6av 17TD 0fmb; 18rec 212yd 1TD; 43ret yds 0TD
   Richardson had 77 yards and 2 touchdowns against Tennessee.
9. Justin Blackmon, WR-Oklahoma State (6-0)
   61rec 662yd 8TD 1fmb; 2rsh 6yds 3.0 ave 0TD
   Blackmon had his lowest yardage total of the year (54) and was injured against Missouri.
   
10. Landry Jones, QB-Oklahoma (6-1)
    201-308 65% 2589yd 21TD 7int; 14rsh 22yd 1.6ave 2TD 0fmb
    Oklahoma's upset loss to Texas Tech hurts Jones despite his 5 TD passes.
11. ^ Ryan Broyles, WR-Oklahoma (6-1)
    67rec 899yd 9TD 1fmb; 161ret yds 0TDs 1fmb
    Broyles had 7 receptions for 84 yards against Texas Tech.
12. v Marcus Lattimore, RB-South Carolina (6-1)
    163rsh 818yd 5.0av 10TD 2fmb; 19rec 182yd 1TD
    Lattimore is out for the season with injury.
13. Tajh Boyd, QB-Clemson (8-0)
    172-278 62% 2379yd 24TD 3int; 81rsh 165yd 2.0av 4TD 0fmb
    Boyd's team is 8-0 after a second 50-point offensive effort in a row.
    

Case Keenum had the best weekend of any candidate on last week's chart certainly. He passed for 6 touchdowns and completed 24 of 28 passes in a Houston win. Their opponent was Marshall, which certainly lessens the accomplishment. But Keenum is starting to ring up the all-time NCAA records, and that's worth something. He passes Robert Griffin III, whose team was idle. Griffin could still make a push for the top five but Baylor has two losses and more could be on the way in the tough Big Twelve.

Trent Richardson had just 77 yards against Tennessee, not exactly a Heisman-like stat. For the year, though, he's passed just shy of 1,000 yards, and with Alabama undefeated he will almost certainly make the top 5 in the coming weeks. That is, unless they lose to LSU. If Alabama can't claim to be the best team—with Richardson as best player on the best team—then Richardson's numbers look less impressive. To win the Heisman without being on the best team you should have at least 150 yards per game, and Richardson is well short of that.

Justin Blackmon's candidacy falters further with a 54-yard effort against Missouri. He remains #9 only because #10 Landry Jones doesn't deserve to rise after Oklahoma's loss to Texas Tech. Teammate Ryan Broyles moves up as Marcus Lattimore falls to #12. And finally joining this week is Tajh Boyd, who threw for 5 touchdowns and rushed for another in Clemson's 59-38 win over North Carolina. Any loss by Clemson effectively ends his chances but it hasn't happened yet.

2011 Conference Final Standings Projection - week 8: Upsets everywhere

FBS Conference Projected Standings for 2011 season

Updated for games through week 8 (October 22, 2011)

We use "fuzzy logic" which allows for partial wins and losses to project the most likely conference winners based on our pre-season rankings. Actual results are integrated as the season progresses.

rank = projected ranking position at end of season
lw = last week's ranking
proj W = projected conference wins at end of season
proj L = projected conference losses at end of season
W = current actual conference wins
L = current actual conference losses

ACC
rank	lw	Atlantic division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Clemson	7.0	1.0	5	0
2	2	Florida State	5.5	2.5	2	2
3	3	Wake Forest	4.7	3.3	4	1
4	5	North Carolina State	3.5	4.5	1	2
5	4	Maryland	3.3	4.7	1	3
6	6	Boston College	1.5	6.5	0	4
rank	lw	Coastal division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Virginia Tech	6.2	1.8	3	1
2	2	Miami FL	4.4	3.6	2	2
3	3	Georgia Tech	4.0	4.0	3	2
4	4	North Carolina	3.1	4.9	1	3
5	5	Duke	2.5	5.5	1	2
6	6	Virginia	2.2	5.8	1	2

The ACC was one of the few leagues without a major upsets within its ranks. North Carolina State edges past Maryland in the Atlantic, but neither the Wolfpack's win over Virginia nor Maryland's loss to FSU were an upset. Miami beating Georgia Tech wasn't too big of a deal either, though the Yellow Jackets were ranked. It solidifies the 'Canes as a distant #2 to Virginia Tech, who may run away with the Coastal the way Clemson is running away with the Atlantic.

The Tigers face Georgia Tech next weekend. Tech's star has faded rapidly, but they're capable of giving anyone a tough game with their offense, and Clemson's defense is looking worse each week. Their offense is looking better and better, though. Since Clemson's lead in the Atlantic is so vast, a Tech upset would have bigger repercussions for the BCS than for the ACC.

rank	lw	Big East	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	2	Cincinnati	4.9	2.1	2	0
2	1	West Virginia	4.2	2.8	1	1
3	3	Pittsburgh	4.2	2.8	1	1
4	4	Connecticut	3.5	3.5	1	1
5	7	Louisville	3.1	3.9	1	1
6	5	Rutgers	3.0	4.0	2	1
7	8	Syracuse	2.7	4.3	1	1
8	6	South Florida	2.4	4.6	0	3

The screwiest conference in the country, the Big East at one point last week had every team projected within a game of every other team. We had West Virginia at 5-2 and Syracuse at 2-5, with every other team 3-4 or 4-3. So what happens? Of course, Syracuse not only upsets but blows out West Virginia, 49-23. Cincy beat South Florida to put them at an expected 5-2 and USF at about 2-5, and give the Bearcats the projected BCS berth. The difference between the lone undefeated Big East team, and the only winless one? A 37-34 last minute comeback win.

Louisville beat Rutgers to inch past the Scarlet Knights. They play Syracuse next week, while West Virginia takes on Rutgers. Pitt and UConn play Wednesday night. And nobody has any clue which teams are going to win.

Big Ten
rank	lw	Leaders division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Wisconsin	5.9	2.1	2	1
2	4	Penn State	5.2	2.8	4	0
3	3	Ohio State	4.9	3.1	1	2
4	2	Illinois	4.3	3.7	2	2
5	5	Purdue	3.5	4.5	2	1
6	6	Indiana	0.8	7.2	0	4
rank	lw	Legends division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Michigan State	6.2	1.8	3	0
2	2	Nebraska	5.5	2.5	2	1
3	3	Iowa	4.7	3.3	2	1
4	4	Michigan	4.1	3.9	2	1
5	5	Northwestern	1.8	6.2	0	4
6	6	Minnesota	1.4	6.6	0	3

The huge upset that shook the BCS standings—Michigan State over Wisconsin on a last chance power drive, as the Boss would say—had little effect on our Big Ten projections. Wisconsin is enjambed at the top of the Leaders, even as Penn State stands 4-0 after beating Northwestern. Illinois' star continues to fade with the loss to Purdue, their first actual upset win or loss this year. The Boilermakers distance themselves further from Indiana, but stay in 5th place.

On the Legends side, Michigan State broadens their lead over Nebraska, but the two still have to play, and it happens this Saturday in a game that probably should determine the division winner. Back in the Leaders, Ohio State hosts Wisconsin and if the Badgers are down, the Buckeyes can get right back in the race. Penn State hosts Illinois and a win, coupled by an Ohio State upset, would put the Nittany Lions in charge of the division big time.

rank	lw	Big Twelve	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	2	Oklahoma State	8.0	1.0	4	0
2	1	Oklahoma	6.9	2.1	3	1
3	3	Texas A&M	6.6	2.4	3	1
4	4	Kansas State	5.4	3.6	4	0
5	5	Missouri	4.6	4.4	1	3
6	6	Texas	4.5	4.5	1	2
7	8	Texas Tech	3.6	5.4	2	2
8	7	Baylor	3.0	6.0	1	2
9	9	Iowa State	1.7	7.3	0	4
10	10	Kansas	0.6	8.4	0	4

Another conference, another big upset, and this one—Texas Tech over Oklahoma—knocked the Sooners out of the projected #1 spot in the Big Twelve. Both the Sooners and the new #1 Cowboys are expected to take another loss somewhere—one will be when the two teams meet—and that would leave Oklahoma State 8-1, Oklahoma 7-2. The Red Raiders, for all the hoopla of their win, still look like the #7 team in the tough league.

Everything else went to plan last weekend. Coming up this Saturday, Texas A&M travels to Missouri who can't seem to catch a break: their three conference losses are to undefeated Oklahoma State and Kansas State, and 1-loss Oklahoma, which is why they still project at #5. Presumably better times are ahead for the Tigers, just not this weekend, and not if this constant losing hurts their confidence in later games. In other action, ever-dangerous Baylor heads to Oklahoma State, so look for a shootout there, and in the Big Twelve's biggest game, Oklahoma goes to Kansas State to give the Wildcats their first major test.

Pac-12
rank	lw	North division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Oregon	8.2	0.8	4	0
2	2	Stanford	7.9	1.1	5	0
3	3	Washington	5.0	4.0	3	1
4	4	California	3.8	5.2	1	3
5	5	Oregon State	3.8	5.2	2	2
6	6	Washington State	2.2	6.8	1	3
rank	lw	South division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Arizona State	6.1	2.9	3	1
2	2	USC	5.6	3.4	3	1
3	3	UCLA	4.5	4.5	2	2
4	5	Arizona	3.2	5.8	1	4
5	4	Utah	2.7	6.3	0	4
6	6	Colorado	1.1	7.9	0	4

The Pac-12 avoided the major upset bug, but some of the victory margins were god awful. We knew Arizona would start winning eventually as their schedule eased, but 48-12 over UCLA? And we had Cal over Utah at the beginning of the year, but not 34-0. The two results cause the only position shift in the rankings as the Wildcats move past the Utes in the lower reaches of the South.

This weekend the big game is Stanford at USC. The Trojans can't win the South, but they can be a spoiler in the North and in the BCS by beating the Cardinal. Are they the Michigan State to Stanford's Wisconsin? The comparison isn't bad. Stanford rolled over Washington the same way Wisconsin rolled Nebraska, but both of those games happened at home. A team's first real road test often comes up sour, and USC is very confident right now.
  

SEC
rank	lw	East division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	South Carolina	6.0	2.0	4	1
2	2	Georgia	5.7	2.3	4	1
3	3	Florida	3.7	4.3	2	3
4	4	Kentucky	2.5	5.5	0	3
5	5	Vanderbilt	1.9	6.1	1	3
6	6	Tennessee	1.6	6.4	0	4
rank	lw	West division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Alabama	7.3	0.7	5	0
2	2	LSU	6.7	1.3	5	0
3	3	Arkansas	5.2	2.8	2	1
4	4	Auburn	4.6	3.4	3	2
5	5	Mississippi State	2.2	5.8	0	4
6	6	Mississippi	0.6	7.4	0	4

Arkansas was almost the SEC representative in Upset Week. But they pulled out a 29-24 comeback win to preserve their status as distant third in the West.

Alabama and LSU play in two weeks, so this weekend will be unimportant for the West, but the East has the annual Georgia-Florida grudge match. Even a Florida win probably doesn't move the Gators up to #2, but it would crush the Bulldogs' chance of making it to the SEC title game. South Carolina faces Tennessee without Marcus Lattimore; the Volunteers are looking for their first SEC win this year and might smell blood.
  

CUSA
rank	lw	East division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Southern Miss	5.7	2.3	2	1
2	2	Central Florida	4.6	3.4	1	2
3	3	East Carolina	4.1	3.9	2	1
4	4	Marshall	3.9	4.1	2	2
5	5	UAB	3.0	5.0	1	3
6	6	Memphis	1.3	6.7	1	3
rank	lw	West division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Tulsa	7.0	1.0	3	0
2	2	Houston	6.3	1.7	3	0
3	3	Southern Methodist	5.2	2.8	3	1
4	5	Rice	2.7	5.3	1	3
5	6	UTEP	2.2	5.8	1	2
6	4	Tulane	2.0	6.0	1	3

Speaking of huge upsets, did you see winless Alabama-Birmingham beat Central Florida on Thursday night? No? UCF was already out of our top position in the East and UAB ahead of Memphis, but the Blazers' 26-24 victory kept each team moving toward the middle. Memphis got their first win, too, upsetting Tulane who now looks like the bottom dog in the West. And projected East winner Southern Miss showed they won't just roll over to the eventual West winner, as they demolished SMU 27-3.

Houston and Tulsa continued their march toward a showdown. It's not quite Alabama-LSU but for the C-USA, it's similar. Both teams have to stay undefeated all the way to November 26, however. This weekend sees Houston hosting Rice and Tulsa against SMU, which will test how far the Golden Hurricane have really come since their early blowout losses against three top-ten teams.
  

MAC
rank	lw	East division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Temple	5.0	3.0	3	2
2	2	Miami OH	4.2	3.8	1	2
3	3	Ohio	3.8	4.2	2	2
4	5	Bowling Green	3.6	4.4	2	2
5	4	Kent State	3.2	4.8	0	3
6	6	Buffalo	2.4	5.6	1	3
7	7	Akron	0.9	7.1	0	3
rank	lw	West division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	2	Toledo	6.3	1.7	4	0
2	1	Northern Illinois	6.2	1.8	3	1
3	3	Western Michigan	4.8	3.2	2	2
4	5	Ball State	4.3	3.7	3	1
5	6	Eastern Michigan	3.9	4.1	3	1
6	4	Central Michigan	3.2	4.8	1	3

From a pre-season vantage point, this might have been the biggest upset of all last week: Eastern Michigan 16, Western Michigan 14. The Broncos were still in the thick of the West race despite losing to Northern Illinois, but the Eagles put turned it into a two-team race. Speaking of which, Northern Illinois held on to beat Buffalo, 31-30, on a Bulls' failed extra point, but Toledo gained more ground with their win over Miami of Ohio and now are officially our favorite to win the West. Ball State beat Central Michigan, 31-27, sending the Chippewas to the cellar in a division where no other team currently has a losing record.

How much better is the West than the East? The West is 16-8 in conference play, the East 9-17. That's hard to do when the majority of league play is within the divisions. Only Temple—who also fell victim to a big upset, losing to Bowling Green 13-10—has a winning conference record in the East. There are no big conference games this weekend, but Toledo plays NIU on Tuesday, November 1st.
  

rank	lw	Mountain West	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	2	Boise State	6.4	0.6	2	0
2	1	TCU	6.3	0.7	3	0
3	3	San Diego State	4.8	2.2	1	1
4	4	Air Force	3.8	3.2	0	3
5	5	Wyoming	2.3	4.7	1	0
6	6	Colorado State	2.3	4.7	1	1
7	7	UNLV	1.1	5.9	0	1
8	8	New Mexico	0.9	6.1	0	2

Boise's win over Air Force wasn't pretty, but it was enough to re-establish the proper pecking order with the Broncos at the top. It might have given TCU some hope that they can compete with Boise on the blue turf however. For Air Force, it was probably their last conference loss; currently 0-3, they should handle the bottom four teams pretty easily and finish #4. The only real battles, other than for #1, look like Wyoming and Colorado State vying for 5th place, and UNLV and New Mexico for last place. The Mountain West is the opposite of the disorderly Big East.

rank	lw	Sun Belt	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Arkansas State	7.0	1.0	3	0
2	2	Louisiana Lafayette	5.1	2.9	4	1
3	3	Florida International	4.7	3.3	1	2
4	5	Western Kentucky	4.6	3.4	3	1
5	4	Louisiana Monroe	3.9	4.1	1	2
6	6	Troy	3.8	4.2	1	2
7	7	North Texas	3.7	4.3	2	2
8	8	Middle Tennessee St	2.5	5.5	1	2
9	9	Florida Atlantic	0.6	7.4	0	4

Upsets can even happen to the hottest teams. Just when it looked like Louisiana-Lafayette was going to make a run at Arkansas State in our projection, the Ragin' Cajuns were upended by Western Kentucky, 42-23. That wasn't an upset from a pre-season view, but ULL was 6-1 going in, with their only loss to Oklahoma State. ULL remains the #2 team in our projection, but drop farther behind the Red Wolves who handled FIU convincingly, 34-16, by dominating the 4th quarter.

This projection doesn't include FIU's Tuesday night overtime win over Troy, but little would change if it did—except that the Trojans would be in 7th place instead of 6th.
  

rank	lw	WAC	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Nevada	6.3	0.7	2	0
2	2	Fresno State	4.4	2.6	2	1
3	3	Hawaii	4.2	2.8	2	1
4	5	Louisiana Tech	4.1	2.9	2	1
5	4	San Jose State	4.0	3.0	2	1
6	6	Utah State	2.0	5.0	0	2
7	7	New Mexico State	1.5	5.5	1	2
8	8	Idaho	1.4	5.6	0	3

Nevada fended off Fresno State last weekend to stay perfect and remain a solid #1 in our WAC projections. Their opponent this weekend is New Mexico State, so they should be staying on top. Louisiana Tech, who inched past San Jose State by beating Utah State, hosts the Spartans this weekend in a game that should help clear out the logjam in the contest for 2nd place. Four teams are 2-1 in the league and all are projected to finish 4-3, more or less.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - week 8: Oklahoma loss changes everything

Here we project the final 2011 BCS Standings using our "fuzzy logic" win counter, with a power rating designed to work based on partial victories and defeats. We use our pre-season rankings as a starting point and actual results are added each week. This week's current BCS ranking is in the column at the far right; our projection is for where the teams will stand on Sunday, December 4th.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - thru week 8 (10/22/2011)

lw	proj	Team	Proj W	Proj L	BCS Bowl	W	L	BCS rank
1	1	Alabama	12.0	1.0	BCS Title	8	0	2
4	2	Oklahoma St	11.0	1.0	BCS Title	7	0	3
3	3	LSU	10.7	1.3	Sugar	8	0	1
6	4	Boise St	11.4	0.6	Fiesta	7	0	4
2	5	Oklahoma	9.9	2.1	Fiesta	6	1	9
8	6	Clemson	10.6	2.4	Orange	8	0	5
9	7	South Carolina	10.1	2.9		6	1	13
11	8	Oregon	11.2	1.8	Rose	6	1	7
10	9	Arkansas	9.2	2.8		6	1	10
7	10	Stanford	10.7	1.3	Sugar	7	0	6
15	11	Kansas St	8.4	3.6		7	0	8
5	12	Wisconsin	10.7	2.3	Rose	6	1	15
12	13	Virginia Tech	10.8	2.2		7	1	12
13	14	Texas A&M	8.6	3.4		5	2	16
14	15	Nebraska	9.7	3.3		6	1	14
17	16	Michigan St	9.2	2.8		6	1	11
16	17	Auburn	7.6	4.4		5	3	23
--	18	Texas Tech	6.6	5.4		5	2	20
21	19	Georgia	8.5	3.5		5	2	22
--	20	Penn State	8.2	3.8		7	1	19
--	21	Texas	7.5	4.5		4	2	24
20	22	Michigan	8.1	3.9		6	1	18
19	23	Ohio State	7.9	4.1		4	3	--
24	24	Houston	10.3	1.7		7	0	17
--	25	Arizona St	8.2	4.8		5	2	21

This projection yields the following likely BCS Bowl pairups (changes from last week in bold):

BCS Championship Game:	Alabama vs. Oklahoma State
Rose Bowl:	Wisconsin vs. Oregon
Fiesta Bowl:	Oklahoma vs. Boise State
Sugar Bowl:	LSU vs. Stanford
Orange Bowl:	Clemson vs. Cincinnati

Two big upsets of top teams, but only one has much effect. Wisconsin lost to Michigan State but remains Rose Bowl bound in our projection; meanwhile Oklahoma's loss throws everything topsy-turvy.

The Sooners ranked #2 and were favored every step of the way, and expected (in a fuzzy logic sense) to finish with about 1 loss. But a hypothetical loss is one thing; a real one knocks you down in both the polls and in the computers. Losing to Texas Tech, who is expected to be good but not great, also didn't do the Sooners any favors. Oklahoma falls to #5 in our projection, still good enough for #2 in the Big Twelve and a Fiesta Bowl berth.

But the top team in the Big Twelve should still go to the BCS Championship, and that team is now expected to be Oklahoma State. The Cowboys move up from #4 to #2, aided by a strong #3 ranking in the current BCS. They, too, are technically expected to have a cumulative "loss" but then again, so is every team (though Boise State is getting close to officially being favored to go undefeated). Of course, the head-to-head game between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State would decide the Big Twelve winner should they both go undefeated until then. Our projections are based on the odds of winning each game, and things look better for Oklahoma State to finish with a better record and stronger BCS ranking than everyone except Alabama. If the Sooners can win out, however, they'll be in as good a position as anyone to be in the title game.

LSU remains #3, reflecting their current position, the liklihood that they won't beat Alabama, and the possibility that they could (which would put them at #1); they're picked for the Sugar Bowl as Alabama's replacement. Boise State moves up to #4 as both the Sooners and the Badgers drop below them. The big help was Wisconsin's loss, as a 1-loss Oklahoma could still pass the Broncos.

Clemson moves up to #6 and is the ACC pick, putting them in the Orange Bowl, while South Carolina is expected to finish all the way up at #7. Being the #3 SEC team precludes their participation in a BCS bowl however. That, and without Marcus Lattimore, this projection is probably more than a bit optimistic. But we'll see.

Oregon has won enough now to reclaim our Pac-12 championship designation. Since we don't pick head-to-head winners in the regular season games, just the percentages, we use the highest finish in our projection as the conference winner, so Oregon gets the extra game against Arizona State. That, and Notre Dame's loss, bump Stanford down to #10 despite their rise to #6 in the current BCS standings.

Every single BCS bowl is affected. As we mentioned, Alabama now faces Oklahoma State in the national title game; Wisconsin takes on Oregon in the Rose Bowl. The Fiesta Bowl now has Oklahoma instead of Oklahoma state, and they have first pick for a 2nd team. Their choices are few, as we have noted before. South Carolina, Arkansas, Kansas State, and Texas A&M are ruled out by the 2-per-conference rule. That leaves Boise State, Stanford, Virginia Tech, and new Big East favorite Cincinnati as the Fiesta choice. Under these conditions, a rematch of the classic 2006 game might be the best bet for the bowl committee.

The Sugar Bowl, already armed with LSU, would probably opt for Stanford, though Virginia Tech would be considered. That leaves Clemson vs. Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl.

Projected BCS Standings for Sunday, October 23: #1 LSU, #2 Alabama, #3 Oklahoma State

This evening's projected BCS Standings hold no surprises at the very top, as LSU should greatly increase their hold on the #1 spot from last week's 3/10,000th point lead.

The Tigers garnered the majority of the 31 1st place votes that Oklahoma disgorged in the USA Today poll due to their loss to Texas Tech. LSU also will get more of a boost in the computers for beating 5-3 Auburn than Alabama will for defeating 3-5 Tennessee. In all, the Tigers should be a clear #1 this week, with Alabama a very solid #2.

Replacing Oklahoma at #3 will be Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are roughly equal to Stanford in the polls but will hold a substantial computer edge. Likewise, Clemson may match Oklahoma State in the computers but will be behind in the polls. The battle for #4 between Stanford, Boise State, and Clemson will be tight but we give it to Stanford as their win impressed the voters most. Boise State is very tight with Clemson; they could hold their spot in front of Stanford and Clemson but due to their narrow win over Air Force they didn't gain as much in the polls, and both the Tigers and Cardinal beat teams with winning records.

Here are our projected BCS standings for Sunday, October 23. *We use the current AP as a projection of the Harris as the two correlate well. Underlined partitions show significant breaks in ranking scores.

lw  proj  Team         W    L   Comp    USA   Harris*
1     1   LSU          8    0     2      1       1
2     2   Alabama      8    0     1      2       2
4     3   Oklahoma St  7    0     3      4       3
8     4   Stanford     7    0     7      3       4
5    5t   Boise St     7    0     6      5       5
7    5t   Clemson      8    0     4      6       6
9     7   Arkansas     6    1     8      8       8
10    8   Oregon       6    1    11      7       7
11    9   Kansas St    7    0     5     12      10
16   10t  Michigan St  6    1    13     10       9
3    10t  Oklahoma     6    1    12      9      11
6    12   Wisconsin    6    1    15     11      12
12   13   Virg. Tech   7    1    10     15      15
13   14   Nebraska     6    1    17     13      13
19   15   Houston      7    0     9     18      18

There should be a sizeable gap between #6 and #7, whoever they are. But #7 through #10 are all very tight. We have Arkansas at #7, and Oregon the edge for #8 over Kansas State since they led last week. But all three spots are close. Michigan State was ranked very poorly by the computers last week; their win over Wisconsin will fix that somewhat but they may be below this range as our computer ranking estimate might be high.

Another gap separates the top 11 from the rest of the field. At #11 and #12 we see the week's big losers, Oklahoma and Wisconsin. The Sooners fall from the #3 spot all the way to #10 or #11 (we give the spot to the Spartans narrowly), while the Badgers drop to #12. Both will rank worse with the computers than the pollsters, though Oklahoma will fare better than the Badgers who already had a low computer composite last week. Michigan State's ascendance should push Virginia Tech and Nebraska down a notch, and with last week's #14 South Carolina idle and not advancing much in the polls, Houston might sneak in at #15.

 

2011 SportsRatings Top 25 - week eight: Finally, the Big Upsets arrive

The SportsRatings Weekly Top 25 is a subjective ranking of the top 25 college football teams in the style of the AP or USA/Coaches poll. Our rankings properly reflect head-to-head results and give additional consideration to teams who have victories over other top 25 teams.

Finally. We've been waiting for this week for about a month: the week some of the very top teams are upset, shaking up the rankings. Losses by Wisconsin and Oklahoma cause the first meaningful changes in our top 10 since week one when LSU beat Oregon.

The very top spots didn't change. #1 Alabama and #2 Stanford hold steady with blowout wins over Tennessee (37-6) and ex-#14 Washington (65-21). Louisiana State jumps to #3 after blasting Auburn 45-10; contrast this with #4 Boise State's touch-and-go affair with Air Force, whom they defeated 37-26. LSU's résumé is also starting to look undeniably better even as the teams' strength looks about even.

Into the void created by Wisconsin's loss jump Clemson and Oregon, each up two spots. The Tigers keep winning regardless of how many points they give up; they beat North Carolina 59-38. Oregon's defense completely shut down Colorado, 45-2, and their offense worked just fine even without both Darron Thomas and LaMichael James. Kansas State mauled Kansas 59-21 to remain undefeated; they're up to #8 now. Arkansas had to come back from 17 down to beat Mississippi; they move up a spot to #9.

Michigan State (6-1) leaps from #18 to #10 after their upset of Wisconsin; the Badgers are right behind them, as the win was decided literally by inches on the last, crazy play of the game.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week 8 2011 (thru 10/22/2011)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Alabama	8-0	wArk 38-14, @PennSt 27-11
2	2	Stanford	7-0	wWash 65-21
5	3	Louisiana State	8-0	wOregon 40-27, Auburn 45-10
4	4	Boise State	7-0
7	5	Oklahoma State	7-0	w@TexAM 30-29
8	6	Clemson	8-0	w@VTech 23-3, Auburn 38-24
9	7	Oregon	5-1	L@LSU 40-27; wASU 41-27
11	8	Kansas State	7-0	w@TxTech 41-34
10	9	Arkansas	5-1	L@Alabama 38-14; w=TexAM 42-38, Auburn 38-14
18	10	Michigan St	6-1	L@NotreDame 31-13; wWisc 37-31, Mich 28-14
6	11	Wisconsin	6-1	L@MichSt 37-31; wNebraska 48-17
12	12	Virginia Tech	7-1	L Clemson 23-3
13	13	Nebraska	6-1	L@Wisc 48-17; wWash 51-38
3	14	Oklahoma	6-1	L TxTech 41-38
15	15	Southern Cal	6-1	L@ASU 43-22
16	16	South Carolina	6-1	L Auburn 16-13
19	17	Michigan	6-1	L@MichSt 28-14
21	18	Houston	7-0
22	19	Penn State	7-1	L Alabama 27-11
25	20	Texas A&M	5-2	L OKst 30-29, =Ark 42-38; w@TxTech 45-40
--	21	Texas Tech	6-2	L TexAM 45-40, KSt 41-34; w@OK 41-38
17	22	Illinois	6-2	L OhioSt 17-7, @Purdue 21-14; wASU 17-14
23	23	Arizona State	5-2	L@ILL 17-14, @Oregon 41-27; wUSC 43-22
--	24	Cincinnati	6-1	L@Tenn 45-23
--	25	Southern Miss	6-1	L@Marshall 26-20
	out:
14	--	Washington	5-2	L@Neb 51-38, @Stanford 65-21
24	--	Auburn	5-3	L@Ark 38-14, @Clem 38-24, @LSU 45-10;  w@SC 16-13
20	--	Georgia Tech	6-2	L@Virginia 24-21, @Miami 24-7

Virginia Tech and Nebraska remain at #12 and #13. The Hokies knocked off Boston College while the Cornhuskers were idle. Both teams have 1 loss to a team in the top 11. #14 Oklahoma and #15 Southern Cal both have a loss to a lower-ranked opponent. USC beat Notre Dame on the road, 31-17. South Carolina was idle at #16, and with Auburn's exit they have a loss to an unranked team.

Michigan, Houston, and Penn State slide up a few spots each. The Wolverines were idle, while undefeated Houston beat Marshall 63-28 and Penn State (7-1) handled Northwestern 34-24.

The four teams from #20 to #23 all have two losses, but hold a win over a top 25 team. Texas A&M beat Iowa State 33-17 this weekend and offsets its narrow losses to two top ten teams with a previous win at Texas Tech. The Red Raiders, of course, upended Oklahoma in Norman 41-38. They lost close games to Texas A&M and Kansas State. Falling to #22, Illinois has now lost to two unranked teams: Ohio State a week ago, and Purdue 21-14 on Saturday. But they have a win over #23 Arizona State, who beat USC a few weeks ago.

The addition of Cincinnati and Southern Miss, both of whom are 6-1, means that every 1-loss team is in the rankings, along with every 2-loss team that holds a win over another top 25 team. It follows that there is no room for Georgia Tech, who lost to Miami 24-7. Their résumé is similar to Illinois' but without the top 25 win. Washington's résumé is a lot like Texas': a close loss to one top 25 team (Nebraska 51-38, Oklahoma State 38-26) and an absolute blowout loss to another (Stanford 65-21, Oklahoma 55-17). Since the Longhorns aren't ranked, the Huskies must fall out, too. Auburn is out for having three losses, but all are to top ten teams and they have a win over South Carolina, so they aren't looking that bad despite the big loss to LSU.

2011 Heisman Race week seven: Marcus Lattimore out for season

Marcus Lattimore's season started with a bang and ended with a whimper. The South Carolina running back looked like a viable candidate early on after back-to-back game-changing performances against Georgia (176 yards) and Navy (246 yards). At the time he was averaging 178 yards per game and we assumed that in short order he would ascend to the very top of our list. But a couple of sub-par games later, including 66 yards against Auburn in a loss, prevented him from advancing, and a season-ending injury against Mississippi State puts his campaign to rest. Even if he hadn't been injured late in that game, his 17 carry, 39 yard performances was yet another disappointing outing that would have kept him in the lower reaches of our rankings.

Lattimore wasn't the only running back whose luster was lost due to injury. LaMichael James had three consecutive 200 yard outings before being hurt against Cal, forcing him to miss the Arizona State game. Backup Kenyon Barner had 171 yards for the Ducks, begging the question: is there such a thing as a "system" running back? Obviously both James and Barner are great talents, but running backs need every chance they can get to load up on yardage, and if you're in the top three and miss a game, you can't expect to stay there.

Particularly when others are knocking on the door. Denard Robinson didn't have a good game Saturday and Michigan lost to Michigan State, but Russell Wilson of Wisconsin had another solid outing in their blowout of Indiana. He also had a "Heisman moment," catching a touchdown pass to one-up Andrew Luck's first down catch from a few weeks ago. Luck remains in first place, with Kellen Moore still #2. Those two are #3 and #4 in the NCAA in passing efficiency, with Wilson at #1.

2011 Heisman Race after week 7

1. Andrew Luck, QB-Stanford (6-0)
   129-181 71% 1719yd 18TD 3int; 13rsh 60yd 4.6av 1TD 0fmb; 1rec 13yds 0TD
   Against Washington State Luck's first pass was intercepted, but he followed with 4 TDs.
   
2. Kellen Moore, QB-Boise State (6-0)
   151-199 76% 1729yd 21TD 4int; 7rsh -11yd -1.6av 0TD 0fmb
   Moore's numbers are nearly identical to Luck's. He was 26 of 30 last weekend.
3. ^ Russell Wilson, QB-Wisconsin (6-0)
   95-128 74% 1557yd 14TD 1int; 24rsh 182yd 7.6av 2TD 0fmb; 1rec 25yds 1TD
   Only 166 yards passing, but Wilson also caught a TD toss and ran twice for 42 yards.
4. v LaMichael James, RB-Oregon (5-1)
   95rsh 852yd 9.0ave 8TD 0fmb; 11rec 159yd 1TD; 137ret yds 1TD
   James was out with an elbow injury last weekend; his return date is uncertain.
5. v Denard Robinson, QB-Michigan (6-1)
   76-141 54% 1253yd 11TD 10int; 120rsh 762yd 6.4av 9TD 0fmb
   Robinson was 9 of 24 and threw a critical pick-6 in Michgan's first loss.
6. Robert Griffin III, QB-Baylor (4-2)
   142-182 78% 1950yd 22TD 2int; 72rsh 295yd 4.1av 2TD 2fmb; 15 rec yds
   Griffin had a season-high 430 yards in a loss to Texas A&M.
   
7. Case Keenum, QB-Houston (6-0)
   170-238 71% 2309yd 17TD 2int; 24rsh 24yd 1.0av 0TD 1fmb
   Houston was idle last weekend.
8. ^ Trent Richardson, RB-Alabama (7-0)
   132rsh 912yd 6.9av 15TD 0fmb; 15rec 179yd 1TD; 43ret yds 0TD
   Richardson exploded for 183 yards and 4 touchdowns against Ole Miss.
9. v Justin Blackmon, WR-Oklahoma State (6-0)
   53rec 608yd 7TD 1fmb; 2rsh 6yds 3.0 ave 0TD
   Blackmon's numbers are far below last season's; he had 74 receiving yards Saturday.
   
10. ^ Landry Jones, QB-Oklahoma (6-0)
    171-253 68% 1814yd 16TD 6int; 12rsh 11yd 0.9ave 2TD 0fmb
    Jones had 363 passing yards and 3 touchdowns against Kansas.
11. v Marcus Lattimore, RB-South Carolina (6-1)
    163rsh 818yd 5.0av 10TD 2fmb; 19rec 182yd 1TD
    Lattimore had 39 yards and 1 touchdown before being lost for the season to injury.
12. Ryan Broyles, WR-Oklahoma (6-0)
    60rec 815yd 9TD 0fmb; 128ret yds 0TDs 1fmb
    Broyles caught 13 passes for 217 yards and 2 touchdowns against Kansas.
    

Robert Griffin had another great performance but he can't do it all; Baylor's defense wasn't up to the challenge of Texas A&M, so despite Griffin's 430 yards and three touchdowns they lost 55-28. Griffin is every bit as good as Wilson—probably better—but the Heisman goes to players from winning teams. Still, Griffin's stats are amazing and he holds at #6. Case Keenum's Houston Cougars are undefeated, but another Heisman edict is that players on major schools have an advantage. It's true that smaller schools generally play easier schedules. If Houston goes undefeated and Keenum sets the records he's expected to, he could finish in the top five.

Trent Richardson was the other big mover this week. As Lattimore fades from the race, Richardson is just hitting his stride, and his 183 yards against Mississippi puts him in striking distance of the leaders. Most of his big games this year have come against the weaker teams on the schedule, but he now has seven 100+ games in a row. Conversely Oklahoma State's Justin Blackmon now has two games in a row below triple digits in receiving yards, compared to last year when he went over 100 in every game. He drops a spot as does Lattimore. Landry Jones moves into the top ten as Lattimore falls; unlike other polls/predictions that have Jones near the lead, we see his numbers as decent but unspectacular, his play not "inspiring" in Heisman terms—and receiver Ryan Broyles close to eclipsing him as the top player on the team.

So for the 2nd straight week we add a Sooner to the list. Broyles had a remarkable 217 receiving yards last week, his fourth straight game in triple digits. If their trajectories continue, Broyles will pass Blackmon as the top receiver on our list, and should move close to his quarterback too.

2011 Conference Final Standings Projection, week 7: Parity scrambles Big East once again

FBS Conference Projected Standings for 2011.

Updated for games through October 15, 2011. Non-AQ conferences without ranking changes are not listed; for last week's projections click here.

We use "fuzzy logic" which allows for partial wins and losses to project the most likely conference winners based on our pre-season rankings. Actual results are integrated as the season progresses.

rank = projected ranking position at end of season
lw = last week's ranking
proj W = projected conference wins at end of season
proj L = projected conference losses at end of season
W = current actual conference wins
L = current actual conference losses

ACC
rank	lw	Atlantic division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Clemson	6.6	1.4	4	0
2	2	Florida State	5.4	2.6	1	2
3	3	Wake Forest	4.1	3.9	3	1
4	4	Maryland	3.4	4.6	1	2
5	5	North Carolina State	3.2	4.8	0	2
6	6	Boston College	1.8	6.2	0	3
rank	lw	Coastal division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Virginia Tech	5.9	2.1	2	1
2	4	Miami FL	4.3	3.7	1	2
3	2	Georgia Tech	4.2	3.8	3	1
4	3	North Carolina	3.5	4.5	1	2
5	5	Duke	3.1	4.9	1	1
6	6	Virginia	2.5	5.5	1	1

No change in the Atlantic projection, as Virginia Tech rained on Wake Forest's ambitions to finish higher than #3 despite their current 3-1 record. The Hokies have a comfortable lead in the Coastal, especially after Georgia Tech lost to bottom-dweller Virginia. The Yellow Jackets play at Miami and can take back 2nd place with a win. The Cavaliers didn't escape the cellar despite their big upset win, but they have yet to play Duke and if their win was anything but a fluke they should take 5th place.

rank	lw	Big East	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	West Virginia	4.8	2.2	1	0
2	3	Cincinnati	4.4	2.6	1	0
3	2	Pittsburgh	4.2	2.8	1	1
4	7	Connecticut	3.5	3.5	1	1
5	6	Rutgers	3.2	3.8	2	0
6	4	South Florida	3.0	4.0	0	2
7	5	Louisville	2.9	4.1	0	1
8	8	Syracuse	2.0	5.0	0	1

Only West Virginia and Syracuse held at the top and bottom of the projection from last week; that's what happens when there's a 1-game difference between the #2 and #7 teams. Cincinnati inched ahead of Pitt, who lost a non-conference game to Utah that suggests that they're overprojected at #3. Meanwhile UConn beat South Florida, sending the Bulls down to #6 and the Huskies all the way to #4. In-between, Rutgers scored an impressive non-conference win over Navy that doesn't affect our numbers, but in contrast to Pitt suggests that the Scarlet Knights will make their way higher than #5. Projecting this conference is sort of a nightmare, but we're confident with the top and bottom 1 or 2 teams. For now.

Big Ten
rank	lw	Leaders division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Wisconsin	6.6	1.4	2	0
2	2	Illinois	5.0	3.0	2	1
3	4	Ohio State	4.9	3.1	1	2
4	3	Penn State	4.8	3.2	3	0
5	5	Purdue	2.8	5.2	1	1
6	6	Indiana	0.9	7.1	0	3
rank	lw	Legends division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	2	Michigan State	5.4	2.6	2	0
2	1	Nebraska	5.2	2.8	1	1
3	4	Iowa	4.5	3.5	1	1
4	3	Michigan	4.1	3.9	2	1
5	5	Northwestern	2.2	5.8	0	3
6	6	Minnesota	1.6	6.4	0	2

Ohio State came to life with a win over Illinois; it doesn't quite put them past the Illini but if they both finish 5-3 the Buckeyes win the tie-breaker now. It does edge them past Penn State who didn't gain a lot by beating Purdue, and has a tough remaining schedule which offsets their 3-0 record. The difference between the #2 and #4 teams is miniscule and one big win could vault the Lions to the #2 spot; #1 is pretty much reserved for the Badgers.

The Legends division remains a puzzle that changes week to week. With Nebraska idle, Michigan State's big win over Michigan makes the Spartans the narrow favorite. The Wolverines fall below Iowa. As in the Big East, the Legends division contenders are separated by a single win and most have yet to play.

The big game this week is Wisconsin vs. Michigan State, both projected division winners; the four other contests should be walkovers, so any upset would change things greatly.
 

rank	lw	Big Twelve	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Oklahoma	7.9	1.1	3	0
2	2	Oklahoma State	7.6	1.4	3	0
3	3	Texas A&M	6.5	2.5	2	1
4	6	Kansas State	5.1	3.9	3	0
5	4	Missouri	5.1	3.9	1	2
6	5	Texas	4.5	4.5	1	2
7	8	Baylor	3.0	6.0	1	2
8	7	Texas Tech	2.6	6.4	1	2
9	9	Iowa State	1.9	7.1	0	3
10	10	Kansas	0.9	8.1	0	3

Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M are a very strong top three in the Big Twelve. Finally moving up to #4 is Kansas State, who has yet to play any of the top three and isn't expected to seriously challenge for one of the top spots. They hold a win over #5 Missouri. Texas slips a spot to #6 due to the Wildcats' upward vault; they've already played two of the top three and should have a strong finish at 5-4 or 4-5. Texas Tech's loss to Kansas State drops them to #8, bumping Baylor up to #7 even though they lost to A&M last weekend.

Pac-12
rank	lw	North division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Oregon	8.2	0.8	3	0
2	2	Stanford	7.8	1.2	4	0
3	3	Washington	5.0	4.0	3	0
4	4	California	3.5	5.5	0	3
5	5	Oregon State	3.4	5.6	1	2
6	6	Washington State	2.5	6.5	1	2
rank	lw	South division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Arizona State	6.1	2.9	3	1
2	2	USC	5.6	3.4	3	1
3	3	UCLA	4.8	4.2	2	1
4	4	Utah	3.0	6.0	0	3
5	5	Arizona	2.8	6.2	0	4
6	6	Colorado	1.1	7.9	0	3

No change at all in the Pac-12 projections. Oregon beat South leader ASU, but they'll have to beat Stanford on the road when the time comes. Washington beat Colorado to remain #3 in the North, and some talk is starting about them challenging for the division title; don't believe it for a second. We show them at 5-4 here, and 6-3 might give them more of a benefit of the doubt, but they almost certainly won't beat either Oregon nor Stanford, let alone both. They get their shot at the Cardinal on Saturday, in Stanford. Best of luck, Huskies.

The South remains the same too. ASU already beat USC, who is ineligible, leaving UCLA the Sun Devils' principle challenger. The most interesting game featuring a Pac-12 South team is the non-conference USC-Notre Dame game.

SEC
rank	lw	East division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	South Carolina	6.0	2.0	4	1
2	2	Georgia	5.7	2.3	4	1
3	3	Florida	3.7	4.3	2	3
4	4	Kentucky	2.5	5.5	0	3
5	5	Vanderbilt	1.9	6.1	1	3
6	6	Tennessee	1.7	6.3	0	3
rank	lw	West division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Alabama	7.3	0.7	4	0
2	2	LSU	6.4	1.6	4	0
3	3	Arkansas	5.0	3.0	1	1
4	4	Auburn	4.9	3.1	3	1
5	5	Mississippi State	2.2	5.8	0	4
6	6	Mississippi	0.7	7.3	0	3

Like the Pac-12, the SEC didn't budge due to last weekend's games either. Georgia continues to win, foiling those who thought they'd fold after starting 0-2. The most interesting development in the conference was Marcus Lattimore's injury, which puts South Carolina's projected East title in jeopardy. We don't factor that in, so the Bulldogs could end up with the title. The Gamecocks hold the head-to-head tiebreaker though, so if they can stay even they win.

The West is all Alabama and LSU, as seen by both the projection and the current standings. Auburn is 3-1 but not a factor unless they can beat LSU this weekend. Don't count on that, as they're playing on the road and in any case aren't nearly as good as the Tigers.

CUSA
rank	lw	East division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	2	Southern Miss	5.4	2.6	1	1
2	1	Central Florida	5.3	2.7	1	1
3	3	East Carolina	4.1	3.9	2	1
4	4	Marshall	4.0	4.0	2	1
5	5	UAB	2.3	5.7	0	3
6	6	Memphis	0.5	7.5	0	3
rank	lw	West division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Tulsa	6.9	1.1	2	0
2	2	Houston	6.2	1.8	2	0
3	3	Southern Methodist	5.5	2.5	3	0
4	4	Tulane	2.9	5.1	1	2
5	5	Rice	2.8	5.2	1	2
6	6	UTEP	2.2	5.8	1	2

Southern Miss jumps back up to the top spot in the East—or rather, floats up as Central Florida crashes and burns by losing to SMU. As of now the three top West teams are projected to finish with better records than the top team in the East, so the conference title game will be played in the West. Who that opponent will be is a mystery; Tulsa is unbeaten at 2-0 and was the pre-season favorite, but Houston and SMU are also unbeaten in conference play and have looked tough. The Golden Hurricane are hard to judge due to their crushing pre-conference slate, but with Demaris Johnson not coming back at all this season, they may be hard-pressed to beat the Cougars and Mustangs.

This weekend, one potential title game matchup is previewed as SMU faces Southern Miss on Saturday.

MAC
rank	lw	East division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Temple	5.8	2.2	3	1
2	3	Miami OH	4.6	3.4	1	1
3	2	Ohio	3.6	4.4	1	2
4	4	Kent State	3.2	4.8	0	3
5	5	Bowling Green	2.9	5.1	1	2
6	6	Buffalo	2.4	5.6	1	2
7	7	Akron	1.1	6.9	0	2
rank	lw	West division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	2	Northern Illinois	6.2	1.8	2	1
2	3	Toledo	6.0	2.0	3	0
3	1	Western Michigan	5.8	2.2	2	1
4	4	Central Michigan	3.8	4.2	1	2
5	5	Ball State	3.8	4.2	2	1
6	6	Eastern Michigan	3.0	5.0	2	1

In the East, Ohio's surprising loss to Ball State drops the Bobcats to #3 behind Miami of Ohio, who doesn't look capable of challenging Temple for the crown. The West's first showdown among the big three resulted in a Northern Illinois win over Western Michigan, sending the Broncos down to #3 and NIU back to the top. But Toledo is 3-0 and hasn't looked bad all year, and already blasted Temple; if they play their best they'll win the West outright, no tiebreakers necessary.

rank	lw	Mountain West	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	TCU	6.3	0.7	2	0
2	2	Boise State	6.2	0.8	1	0
3	4	San Diego State	4.8	2.2	1	1
4	3	Air Force	4.0	3.0	0	2
5	6	Wyoming	2.3	4.7	1	0
6	5	Colorado State	2.3	4.7	1	1
7	7	UNLV	1.1	5.9	0	1
8	8	New Mexico	0.9	6.1	0	1

TCU holds its faux lead over Boise (due to beating the #3 and #4 teams already), and their matchup will easily be the most important game of the MWC season. The 2nd most important game was played last weekend to decide the #3 position, and San Diego State scored a mild upset by beating Air Force 41-27. The Falcons have to turn around and face Boise State in Boise. The only other intra-conference game is TCU vs. New Mexico in Fort Worth, where the Horned Frogs are a 41 point favorite.

rank	lw	Sun Belt	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Arkansas State	6.5	1.5	2	0
2	3	Louisiana Lafayette	5.5	2.5	4	0
3	2	Florida International	5.1	2.9	1	1
4	7	Louisiana Monroe	4.3	3.7	1	1
5	5	Western Kentucky	4.3	3.7	2	1
6	4	Troy	3.8	4.2	1	2
7	6	North Texas	3.3	4.7	1	2
8	8	Middle Tennessee St	2.1	5.9	0	2
9	9	Florida Atlantic	1.1	6.9	0	3

Note: this projection does not factor in results from tonight's (Tuesday) Arkansas State-FIU game.

The Red Wolves are still looking strong at #1, but beyond that everything's in flux. The Louisiana teams continue to outperform and the ULL Ragin' Cajuns look like the #2 team in the league; at 4-0 they're #1 in the current standings but we favor Arkansas State head-to-head. FIU drops another notch and ULM jumps into a tie for 4th after upsetting Troy, knocking the Trojans into the lower half of the conference. Crazy!

rank	lw	WAC	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Nevada	6.1	0.9	1	0
2	2	Hawaii	4.7	2.3	1	0
3	3	Fresno State	4.5	2.5	2	0
4	4	Louisiana Tech	3.7	3.3	1	1
5	5	San Jose State	3.5	3.5	1	1
6	6	Utah State	2.4	4.6	0	1
7	8	New Mexico State	1.6	5.4	1	1
8	7	Idaho	1.4	5.6	0	3

The only changes from last week happened at the very bottom, where New Mexico State's win over Idaho put the Aggies on top of the Vandals. That's how they're likely to stay given the way Idaho has been playing. This weekend, projected #1 Nevada hosts current league leader Fresno State (2-0) to prove they belong on top.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - Week 7: No change in bowls after BCS rankings unveiled

Here we project the final 2011 BCS Standings using our "fuzzy logic" win counter, with a power rating designed to work based on partial victories and defeats. We use our pre-season rankings as a starting point and actual results are added each week. This week's current BCS ranking is in the column at the far right; our projection is for where the teams will stand on Sunday, December 4th.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - thru week 7 (10/15/2011)

lw	proj	Team	Proj W	Proj L	BCS Bowl	W	L	BCS rank
1	1	Alabama	12.0	1.0	BCS Title	7	0	2
2	2	Oklahoma	10.9	1.1	BCS Title	6	0	3
3	3	LSU	10.4	1.6	Sugar	7	0	1
4	4	Oklahoma St	10.6	1.4	Fiesta	6	0	4
6	5	Wisconsin	11.3	1.7	Rose	6	0	6
5	6	Boise St	11.2	0.8	Sugar	6	0	5
7	7	Stanford	11.5	1.5	Rose	6	0	8
11	8	Clemson	10.2	2.8	Orange	7	0	7
8	9	South Carolina	10.1	2.9		6	1	14
9	10	Arkansas	9.0	3.0		5	1	9
10	11	Oregon	10.2	1.8		5	1	10
12	12	Virginia Tech	10.6	2.4		6	1	12
16	13	Texas A&M	8.5	3.5		4	2	17
14	14	Nebraska	9.6	3.4	Fiesta	5	1	13
19	15	Kansas St	8.2	3.8		6	0	11
17	16	Auburn	7.9	4.1		5	2	20
25	17	Michigan St	8.4	3.6		5	1	16
13	18	Illinois	9.0	3.0		6	1	23
--	19	Ohio State	7.9	4.1		4	3	--
15	20	Michigan	8.1	3.9		6	1	18
21	21	Georgia	8.5	3.5		5	2	--
23	22	West Virginia	8.8	3.2	Orange	5	1	15
24	23	Missouri	7.1	4.9		3	3	--
--	24	Houston	10.2	1.8		6	0	19
22	25	Notre Dame	8.2	3.8		4	2	--

This projection yields the following likely BCS Bowl pairups (changes from last week in bold):

BCS Championship Game:	Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Rose Bowl:	Wisconsin vs. Stanford
Fiesta Bowl:	Oklahoma State vs. Nebraska
Sugar Bowl:	LSU vs. Boise State
Orange Bowl:	Clemson vs. West Virginia

The first actual BCS rankings came out last Monday and the top four there is the top four here. But the more likely winners of the Alabama-LSU and Oklahoma-Oklahoma State matchups are projected to finish #1 and #2, while the losers are relegated to the Sugar and Fiesta bowls. As last week, Wisconsin and Stanford are paired in the Rose Bowl, Clemson and West Virginia in the Orange, and Boise State goes to the Sugar. And rounding off the pairings that are exactly the same as they were last week, Nebraska holds at #14 to again nab a Fiesta Bowl invite that would otherwise be Oregon's.

What little changed this week was of little real consequence. Whether Clemson is behind or ahead of South Carolina, Arkansas, and Oregon doesn't matter if they win the ACC. And the upward movement of Texas A&M into projected BCS eligibility matters little if they're #3 in the Big Twelve conference. Nebraska's ranking was in line with where we expected, and Oregon fell to #11, which gives the Cornhuskers more of an argument for being included in the bowl picks.

The bigger changes occurred in the lower half of the chart. Kansas State neared projected BCS eligibility, though it hardly matters if they pierce the top 14 while remaining #4 in the conference. Their #15 takes into account opportunity—they absolutely control their own destiny for the Fiesta Bowl, and maybe even for the national title—and chance of collapse, which could put them at 8-4 and near the bottom, or out of, the rankings. After this weekend, their schedule takes a tough turn. Missouri at 3-3 is also in the rankings due to potential for big wins, but as they're expected to lose those games they aren't ranked very high and already have 3 losses.

Also moving up big is Michigan State. By sealing up the Michigan win, the Spartans become a slight favorite in their division. Ohio State's win over Illinois helped them, too, as MSU beat OSU three weeks ago and the Spartans and Illini don't play. Speaking of the Buckeyes, they have a rejuvinated projection despite being 4-3 currently (Miami's win over North Carolina helped), and join the middle of a Big Ten-rich pack from #17 to #20 as Illinois and Michigan slide.

Not much else is different. Houston peeks in at #24, but only winning out would put them in the top 14, and the expected one or two losses keep them well out of BCS contention. Even a 13-0 Houston is behind a 12-0 Boise State, and the latter is more likely. We don't place them in the CUSA title game yet, either, though it doesn't change their projected ranking if they make it there.

Notre Dame didn't get the small support from the computers we thought they might have so they've been re-evaluated downward. They still have a great shot at a BCS bowl if they win out; anything else and they fall short.

Ten Teams Left: Who Will Finish Undefeated?

At the same time as the first BCS standings are released, college football has been culled down to ten undefeated teams from 120. Which are most likely to go undefeated for the entire season?

We'll look at each team, and considering their strength and the strength of their opponents, figure out how likely each is to remain undefeated during their regular schedule and after their conference championship game, if applicable. We also note how the teams are now expected to finish with game-by-game and cumulative projections.

The ten undefeated teams (as of October 16, 2011) in order of likelihood to finish the season (pre-bowl games) undefeated:

1. Boise State (6-0); Odds: 80.4%; favored: 12-0; cume: 12-0.
   Boise's biggest upcoming contest—against TCU—doesn't look to be nearly the challenge it seemed at the beginning of the season. The same goes for Air Force, who along with San Diego State forms the only other test of the year for the Broncos. UNLV, Wyoming, and New Mexico are guaranteed wins for all practical purposes, and there is no conference championship game in the Mountain West. Boise State is one of college football's elite teams this year and has no excuse for not going 12-0; of course, the same thing was said last year.
2. Wisconsin (6-0); Odds: 56.4% (47.3%); favored: 12-0; cume: 11-1.
   The Badgers are just shy of being favored to be 12-0 in a cumulative projection for their 12 games of the regular season, grading out with 11.48 wins. Yet there's an over 50% chance they'll finish 12-0; in other words, their mean # of wins is 11.48, but their mode is 12 wins. The Badgers play at Michigan State, Ohio State, and Illinois, and also face Penn State at home. Go 12-0 and they'll probably rematch either MSU or Nebraska in the Big Ten title game. Despite these hurdles, Wisconsin is so good that there's a roughly 50/50 chance of them being 13-0 when all is said and done.
3. Stanford (6-0); Odds: 44.9% (38.7%); favored: 12-0; cume: 11-1.
   The big hurdle is Oregon, of course. Other than that, only Notre Dame—another home game—can stop the Cardinal from being 12-0, and then they'll have to get past Arizona State (most likely) to be 13-0. Those are some tough games, but it's only a handful. They do travel to USC which is potentially always a problem, but Oregon is the game that really lowers their odds of going unbeaten.
4. Alabama (7-0): Odds: 46.3% (37.5%); favored: 12-0; cume: 11-1.
   The Tide are rolling, but even though they've got one more win under their belts than teams #1 through #3, having to play LSU crunches their odds quite a bit. They're at home so they should beat the Tigers, but their odds of doing so are around 57%, which is a lot of uncertainty. Add in their slim odds of being upset by someone else on their schedule (very unlikely) and having to win the SEC title game (moderate chance of upset facing Georgia in Atlanta), and Alabama is less than 50% likely to go 12-0, and has about a 3 in 8 chance of being 13-0.
5. Oklahoma (6-0): Odds: 32.7%; favored: 12-0; cume: 11-1.
   The Sooners face a number of moderate challenges and one big one when they travel to Oklahoma State in late November. With six games left, their odds of going unbeaten are around 1 in 3, but there is no conference championship to worry about.
6. LSU (7-0): Odds: 37.2% (30.1%); favored: 11-1; cume: 11-1.
   LSU's remaining schedule is actually a bit easier than Alabama's, other than the game in which they meet. They'll be the underdog in Tuscaloosa, mainly for playing on the road, hence their 11-1 game-by-game record. Even if they beat the Tide, they still have to play Arkansas, but they'll be at home for that one. Like Alabama, they might have to beat Georgia in Atlanta to win the SEC title and go 13-0, which cuts their odds to around 30%.
7. Houston (6-0): Odds: 34.5% (24.2%); favored: 12-0; cume: 11-1.
   Houston is a borderline top 25 team, and has won several games in close calls against questionable competition. But they won't face any great teams this year on their path to 13-0. Marshall, Rice, UAB, and Tulane are near-gimmes. They finish with SMU and Tulsa, both formidable challenges for the Cougars, and then take on the East division winner. We give the Cougars about a 1 in 4 chance of accomplishing all of that.
8. Oklahoma State (6-0): Odds: 12.2%; favored: 11-1; cume: 10-2.
   The Cowboys are just below the top six in quality, along with Oregon. Like the Ducks, their offense among the very best in the nation but the defense is merely good. They're also in arguably the toughest conference in the country this year, and games against Missouri, Baylor, Kansas State, and Texas Tech will test them even before they host Oklahoma. As a result, their cumulative projection is to finish 10-2, and they have only about a 1 in 8 chance of running the table.
9. Clemson (7-0): Odds: 11.6% (6.2%); favored: 11-1; cume: 10-2.
   Clemson is another borderline top 25 team (in strength) that has overachieved and won some close ones. All of their remaining games will present some challenge, but particularly Georgia Tech and South Carolina, both on the road. They're projected to lose to the Gamecocks (giving them a 11-1 game-by-game finish) and the Yellow Jackets game is a tossup. In all, they'll probably finish 10-2. If they do go 12-0, they'll probably rematch Virginia Tech and that game probably won't be as easy as it was the first time around. In all, Clemson's chances of going 13-0 are pretty slim, but they'd really only need one upset (and against a team that lost their star).
10. Kansas State (6-0): Odds: 0.2%; favored: 8-4; cume: 9-3.
    The Wildcats are the team no one is picking to go 12-0, and for good reason. First of all, they're the weakest team on the list (if you properly factor in their opening 10-7 win over Eastern Kentucky). And two, they have a murderous schedule coming up. After what should be a breather (though Kansas is a rivalry game), they face Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, and Texas in a 4-week span. They really should lose all of those, hence the 8-4 prediction, but they've been been winning the close games this year so they might reach the cumulative projection of 9-3. But 12-0 is an extreme longshot, 1 in 500 to be exact.

The odds run the gamut from Boise State's 80.4% chance of finishing 12-0 to Kansas State's meager 0.2%. The top six teams correspond to the top six teams in the Strength Power Rating, so team quality is the biggest factor.

  #  Team                        rec   Overall      Strength     Success
  1. Stanford                    6-0   39.35 [  6]  34.17 [  1]   5.18 [ 10]
  2. Alabama                     7-0   47.63 [  1]  34.11 [  2]  13.51 [  1]
  3. Oklahoma                    6-0   41.87 [  3]  34.05 [  3]   7.81 [  6]
  4. LSU                         7-0   45.32 [  2]  33.67 [  4]  11.64 [  3]
  5. Boise St                    6-0   40.51 [  5]  33.17 [  5]   7.34 [  8]
  6. Wisconsin                   6-0   40.56 [  4]  32.82 [  6]   7.73 [  7]

These six teams—in any order, basically—have been the clear top six in any version of the Strength Power Rating (FBS only or all-division) over the last several weeks. But while there is little difference between the ratings of the top six, there's a huge difference in their remaining schedule strength. Boise State plays a very easy schedule, while Alabama and LSU face each other.

Although only one team is >50% likely to be undefeated, there should be roughly three undefeated teams in total. So although Boise State will probably go undefeated, the other two will likely face off in the national championship game.

Actual BCS Standings for Sunday, October 16, 2011: LSU a slight surprise at #1

The biggest surprise in the initial BCS standings for 2011 is right at the top. Instead of Alabama narrowly leading LSU and Oklahoma, the Tigers are #1 and Alabama is #2. The difference was truly miniscule; LSU's average was .9522 to Alabama's .9519

LSU's rise to the top was mainly because of their big lead at #1 in the Harris poll, which released its first poll along with the BCS standings. We expected the Tigers to be #1 but thought it would be a very tight race; instead, there was plenty of distance between LSU (2819 points) and Alabama (2744) in the Harris poll, with Oklahoma an equally distant third (2684).

Actual BCS Standings for October 16, 2011

BCS  proj   Team         W    L    
1     2t    LSU          7    0    
2     1     Alabama      7    0     
3     2t    Oklahoma     6    0     
4     4     Oklahoma St  6    0     
5     8     Boise St     6    0     
6     5     Wisconsin    6    0     
7     6t    Clemson      7    0     
8     6t    Stanford     6    0     
9     9     Arkansas     5    1     
10    10    Oregon       5    1     
11    13    Kansas St    6    0     
12    14    Virg. Tech   6    1     
13    11    Nebraska     5    1     
14    15    S. Carolina  6    1     
15    --    W. Virginia  5    1 

Other surprises (for us) included Boise State's #5 ranking; we had the Broncos anywhere from #6 to #8, with the latter most likely. Whereas they are #7 in the USA/coaches poll, Boise State ended up #5 in the Harris poll, and that vaulted them over the three teams (Wisconsin, Clemson, and Stanford) that we placed in front of them.

Near the bottom of the top 15, Nebraska's computer composite was lower than we expected and they ended up #13 overall, while Michigan State didn't make the cut (they weren't in the top 25 in two of the computer rankings) finishing at #16. Instead, West Virginia rounded out the top 15.

One interesting point is that Oklahoma State is #1 in the computer composite. We knew they'd be up there, but had them #2 behind Alabama. I'm sure many people are wondering how the Cowboys could rank above the Tide, or even ahead of LSU (who was #3). They did beat Texas A&M, which is probably their best win, as well as 4-2 Texas, but a big reason they're #1 is because of Louisiana-Lafayette! The Ragin' Cajuns are now 6-1, and that's a source of points most people will overlook when rating the Cowboys. Alabama edges LSU with the computers because Arkansas is a better "skin" than Oregon to the computers, since Oregon hasn't played much of anyone. Remember, the computers see only wins and losses, not score margin.

2011 SportsRatings Top 25 - week seven: Blowouts, upsets, and comebacks for undefeated teams

The SportsRatings Weekly Top 25 is a subjective ranking of the top 25 college football teams in the style of the AP or USA/Coaches poll. Our rankings properly reflect head-to-head results and give additional consideration to teams who have victories over other top 25 teams.

It was supposed to be a weekend of blowouts and for the top teams it was, just like last week, but for the lower-rung of undefeated teams nothing was easy.

#1 Alabama crushed Mississippi 52-7 while #2 Stanford and #3 Oklahoma overcame slow starts to beat Washington State 44-14 and Kansas 47-17 respectively. #4 Boise State battered Colorado State 63-13, #5 LSU dominated Tennessee 38-7, and #6 Wisconsin dispatched Indiana 59-7.

Three other undefeated teams had a tougher go of it. #7 Oklahoma State beat Texas, 38-26, in a game that was tight through the third quarter where the teams traded back-to-back 100 yard kickoff returns. #8 Clemson was down 35-17 to Maryland in the 2nd half before storming back to win 56-45. And Kansas State won a back-and-forth battle over Texas Tech, 41-34. The Wildcats move up to #11.

#9 Oregon fended off Arizona State 41-27, and idle Arkansas moved up to #10.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week 7 2011 (thru 10/15/2011)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Alabama	7-0	wArk 38-14, @PennSt 27-11
2	2	Stanford	6-0
3	3	Oklahoma	6-0
4	4	Boise State	6-0
5	5	Louisiana State	7-0	wOregon 40-27
6	6	Wisconsin	6-0	wNebraska 48-17
7	7	Oklahoma State	6-0	w@TexAM 30-29
8	8	Clemson	7-0	w@VTech 23-3, Auburn 38-24
9	9	Oregon	4-1	L@LSU 40-27; wASU 41-27
11	10	Arkansas	4-1	L@Alabama 38-14; wAuburn 38-14
15	11	Kansas State	6-0	wBaylor 36-35
16	12	Virginia Tech	6-1	L Clemson 23-3
17	13	Nebraska	5-1	L@Wisc 48-17; wWash 51-38
18	14	Washington	5-1	L@Neb 51-38
19	15	Southern Cal	5-1	L@ASU 43-22
20	16	South Carolina	6-1	L Auburn 16-13
10	17	Illinois	6-1	L OhioSt 17-7; wASU 17-14
--	18	Michigan St	5-1	L@NotreDame 31-13; wMich 28-14
12	19	Michigan	6-1	L@MichSt 28-14
13	20	Georgia Tech	6-1	L@Virginia 24-21; wUNC 35-28
22	21	Houston	6-0
24	22	Penn State	7-1	L Alabama 27-11
14	23	Arizona State	5-2	L@ILL 17-14, @Oregon 41-27; wUSC 43-22
25	24	Auburn	5-2	L@Ark 38-14, @Clem 38-24; w@SC 16-13
--	25	Texas A&M	4-2	L OKst 30-29, =Ark 42-38; wBaylor 55-28
		out:
21	--	Baylor	4-2	L@TexAM 55-28, @KState 36-35
23	--	North Carolina	5-2	L@GTech 35-28, Miami 30-24

Virginia Tech, Nebraska, Washington, USC, and South Carolina each move up four spots. The Hokies beat upstart Wake Forest 38-17. Nebraska was idle but holds a win over Washington, who trounced Colorado 52-24. USC beat Cal convincingly on Thursday, 30-9, and South Carolina edged Mississippi State 14-12.

Most of this upward movement was due to losses by three previously undefeated teams. #17 Illinois had their first loss of the year at home against Ohio State, 17-7; Michigan fell at Michigan State 28-14 and fell to #19, and the Spartans jump in one spot ahead of the Wolverines. Georgia Tech was defeated by Virginia 24-21.

Houston was idle and remains unbeaten, moving up to #21. Penn State slides up to #22 after another close win, this time over Purdue, 18-13. Arizona State drops from #14 to #23 with their 2nd loss; #24 Auburn (beat Florida 17-6) also has two losses and, like ASU, a win over a top 25 team. Texas A&M re-enters the rankings at #25 after beating Baylor, 55-28. North Carolina also falls out after their loss to Miami.

Projected BCS Standings for Sunday, October 16, 2011: Alabama #1, LSU and Oklahoma tight for #2

When the first BCS standings are announced this evening, look for the Alabama Crimson Tide to be in the #1 position, with a very narrow lead over Oklahoma and LSU, who are essentially tied for #2.

Forecast after release of USA/coaches poll:

Not much changed after the release of the USA poll from our pre-poll projection. LSU didn't gain that much ground on Oklahoma, who remained #1. But we list LSU ahead of the Sooners because they're likely to be ahead in the initial Harris poll which hasn't been released yet. The top three teams are far ahead of the rest of the pack.

Oklahoma State now ranks ahead of Wisconsin since they moved up in the USA poll, but these teams should be very close and in either order. The next "rung" is Clemson, Stanford, and Boise State; Clemson slipped into a tie for 8th in the USA while Boise was passed by Oklahoma State; our projected ordering of these teams doesn't change but the Stanford-Boise tie is now a Clemson-Stanford tie. We still list Clemson ahead as they should be closer to Stanford in the Harris poll than they are in the coaches' poll.

Our projected BCS ranking for Sunday, October 16:

rnk    Team        W    L   Comp  Polls
1     Alabama      7    0     1     3
2t    LSU          7    0     4     2
2t    Oklahoma     6    0     6     1
4     Oklahoma St  6    0     2     6
5     Wisconsin    6    0     7     4
6t    Clemson      7    0     3     8t
6t    Stanford     6    0    10     5
8     Boise St     6    0     8     7
9     Arkansas     5    1    11    10
10    Oregon       5    1    16     8t
11    Nebraska     5    1    12    11
12    Michigan St  5    1     9    13
13    Kansas St    6    0     5    16
14    Virg. Tech   6    1    15    14t
15    S. Carolina  6    1    23    12
16    Michigan     6    1    14    17

Teams with the "bands" could be in any order potentially, and teams listed in a tie are extremely close. But teams in a higher "band" should be ahead of those in a lower grouping, unless the Harris poll has major differences from the USA/coaches poll.

Arkansas and Oregon should be #9 and #10 as we projected earlier (see below). But we've moved Nebraska and Michigan State ahead of Kansas State after the poll release. The Wildcats didn't move up much, probably due to their narrow win. Idle Nebraska moved up more spots, and the Spartans jumped past Kansas State in the USA poll. The spots from #9 to #13 are all pretty tight but this is the order we foresee for tonight's announcement.

We still see Virginia Tech and South Carolina rounding out the top 15, though Michigan might take the final slot instead of the Gamecocks.

Forecast prior to USA/coaches poll availability:

Alabama should be #1 in the computer composite and no lower than the #3 ranking in the USA/coaches poll that they had last week. The Harris poll should correspond pretty well to the USA poll. The #2 BCS ranking will go to either LSU or Oklahoma, depending on whether Oklahoma loses support from their previous #1 USA poll ranking. We list LSU #2 since Oklahoma's performance against Kansas wasn't great, and LSU may be ahead of the Sooners in the Harris poll as they are in the AP poll. Remember, each poll (USA, Harris) counts as much as the computer composite (each is 1/3 of the total).

rnk    Team        W    L   Comp  Polls
1     Alabama      7    0     1     3
2t    LSU          7    0     4     2
2t    Oklahoma     6    0     6     1
4     Wisconsin    6    0     7     4
5     Oklahoma St  6    0     2     7
6     Clemson      7    0     3     8
7t    Stanford     6    0    10     5
7t    Boise St     6    0     8     6
9     Arkansas     5    1    11    10
10    Oregon       5    1    16     9
11    Kansas St    6    0     5    15
12    Nebraska     5    1    12    12
13    Michigan St  5    1     9    16
14    Virg. Tech   6    1    15    14
15    S. Carolina  6    1    23    11

The Tide should end up with a very narrow lead over LSU and Oklahoma, with Wisconsin quite a way behind in 4th place. Oklahoma State might take 4th place as the distance between the Badgers and Cowboys should be minimal, and the latter could be in 2nd place in the computer composite whereas Wisconsin's rank won't be great with their weak schedule.

Clemson, Stanford, and Boise State could be in any order from 6th to 8th. Clemson's rank with the computers will be much better than the other two which should give them the slight edge despite being slightly lower-ranked in the polls. The difference between the Broncos and the Cardinal is too close to call before seeing the updated USA poll.

There's a huge gap between whoever is #8, and #9 Arkansas, the highest-rated team with a loss. Oregon should take the #10 spot, bogged down by a low computer rating. Kansas State's poll ranking is low while their computer ranking will be fairly high. They'll be very close to Oregon, and maybe just a hair ahead of #12 Nebraska. The remaining three teams—Michigan State, Virginia Tech, and South Carolina—could move around if our projected polls rankings for them are different.

First Losses for Georgia Tech, Michigan, and Illinois. Who's next?

Three undefeated teams have fallen already on Saturday, as Georgia Tech, Michigan, and Illinois all fell by late Saturday afternoon. Will there be more?

Georgia Tech lost to Virginia 24-21 in only real upset of the three games. But if you look at the facts surrounding the game it wasn't all that unexpected. Virginia was idle last week, giving them two weeks to prepare for the Yellow Jackets' triple-option offense, and that bolsters an opponent's chances measureably. In addition, you might recall GT running back Orwin Smith's statement a few weeks ago that he was itching to face "the tough teams" i.e., Clemson and Virginia Tech, to show what the team could do. That of course gave fire to the teams they play in-between, namely Maryland—who played them close—Virginia, and Miami. When you look ahead to the "tough teams" you better not be looking past anyone else, and clearly Georgia Tech's attitude was that those teams didn't matter.

Michigan's loss to Michigan State was also not too surprising, given how good Michigan State's defense has been this year. In terms of yardage given up (adjusted for opposition), the Spartans were among the very best in both rushing and passing defense going in the game:

Raw  Adj Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
  1   1. Michigan St                  4-1   162.4 [ 1]   42.0 [ 2]  120.4 [ 2]
  2   2. Central Florida              3-2   227.6 [ 2]  109.1 [27]  118.5 [ 1]
  4   3. Penn State                   5-1   241.6 [ 3]   48.4 [ 3]  193.2 [24]
 12   4. Boise St                     5-0   243.1 [ 4]   91.4 [16]  151.7 [ 7]
  5   5. LSU                          6-0   244.2 [ 5]   28.5 [ 1]  215.6 [47]

All they had to do is prevent Denard Robinson from running wild, and score enough points of their own against the improved Wolverine defense. They did that, winning 28-14. Michigan was driving near the end but the Spartans came up with a pick-6 that put them up for good.

Ohio State beating Illinois was perhaps a bit more of a surprise, but the Illini have followed the path we forecast for them going into the year, namely starting 6-0 and then falling to the Buckeyes. Many were down on Ohio State (and for good reason) but the team is full of talent and at any time they can have a good game. Their defense is still sound which gives them a shot against any time, and they proved that by holding the Illini to 7 points, winning 17-7. Rumors of Ohio State's demise—including potentially missing a bowl game—have been way overblown.

Where does this leave the three teams? I think that Georgia Tech has been exposed again as a team that will run roughshod over unprepared defenses, but good defenses that have time to prepare for the triple-option will beat them every time. They're 6-1 now but could lose 4 out of their last 5, as they face Miami, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Duke, and Georgia.

Michigan is a lot better, particularly on defense, than they were the last two years when they "collapsed" after a strong start. Much of that was due to schedule, and their schedule is a lot tougher over the 2nd half of the season once again. With remaining games against Purdue, Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, and Ohio State, the Wolverines might only finish 8-4, but that would be their best record since 2007.

Illinois has been playing according to plan, based on our pre-season projections. Game-by-game, they should beat Purdue, edge Penn State, beat Michigan at home, lose to Wisconsin, and beat Minnesota, which would put them at 10-2. But beating both Penn State and Michigan might be too tall of a task, so the Illini might finish 9-3 instead. But of the three teams that lost today, their outlook is the best.

The day began with 13 undefeated teams and as of 7pm eastern there were only 10. More will fall, next week if not this week, as squads are whittled down inevitably as the season progresses.

2011 Heisman Race Week 6: James' peak soured by injury

LaMichael James had three 200+ yard games last year, which is pretty astounding. Against Cal this year, he had his third consecutive 200+ yard game, which is bordering on Barry Sanders territory. But just when James was ready to cap it off with another touchdown run in the Bear red zone, he suffered an ugly-looking injury that could cost him several games and derail his Heisman hopes.

James suffered a dislocated elbow which he pushed back in himself while on the field, which could give him "toughness points" if that counts for anything. He was hilarious in the post-game interview, saying that "talking to the media" would be part of his recuperation process. James started slow this year with a bad performance against LSU, but his recent play has put him back in the running for a good finish even if his odds of winning the Heisman are slim. How he bounces back from this injury will determine a lot about where he ends up. This week we move him up to #3, one spot short of where he started the year.

Andrew Luck remains #1; he and #2 Kellen Moore both had their typical excellent games. Michigan's Denard Robinson slips to #4 this week. He had a Jekyll and Hyde game against Northwestern where his first half was awful and his 2nd half amazing. He ended with 117 rushing yards and 4 total TDs, but three more interceptions. Though he led a great comeback and Michigan is still undefeated, it was his first-half play that dug the hole against a team they were expected to beat. With 9 interceptions against 10 passing touchdowns, it's hard to justify his lofty rank. But his running game makes up for that and going forward, the longer he can keep Michigan undefeated against a tough schedule, the closer to the top he'll get.

2011 Heisman Race after week six

1. Andrew Luck, QB-Stanford (5-0)
   106-145 73% 1383 yd 14TD 2int; 12rsh 60yd 5.0av 1TD 0fmb; 1rec 13yds 0TDs
   Another near-perfect game against Colorado helps Luck hold the top spot.
   
2. Kellen Moore, QB-Boise State (5-0)
   125-169 74% 1391yd 17TD 4int; 5rsh -6yd -1.2av 0TD 0fmb
   Moore kept pace with Luck with his own 3-touchdown blowout.
3. ^ LaMichael James, RB-Oregon (4-1)
   95rsh 852yd 9.0ave 8TD 0fmb; 11rec 159yd 1TD; 137ret yds 1TD
   James had his 3rd straight 200+ yard performance against Cal, but was injured late.
4. v Denard Robinson, QB-Michigan (6-0)
   67-117 57% 1130yd 10TD 9int; 102rsh 720yd 7.1av 8TD 0fmb
   Robinson threw 3 interceptions in the first half, then led a comeback win with 117 rushing yards.
5. Russell Wilson, QB-Wisconsin (5-0)
   83-111 75% 1391yd 13TD 1int; 22rsh 140yd 6.4av 2TD 0fmb
   Wisconsin was idle last weekend.
6. Robert Griffin III, QB-Baylor (4-1)
   114-142 80% 1520yd 19TD 1int; 60rsh 280yd 4.7av 2TD 2fmb; 15 rec yds
   Griffin showed off his running skills with 107 yards against Iowa State.
   
7. ^ Case Keenum, QB-Houston (6-0)
   170-238 71% 2309yds 17TD 2int; 24rsh 24yd 1.0av 0TD 1fmb
   Keenum added over 300 yards and 3 TDs in the Cougars' 56-3 romp.
8. v Justin Blackmon, WR-Oklahoma State (5-0)
   46rec 534yd 6TD 1fmb; 2rsh 6yds 3.0 ave 0TD
   Blackmon had another uncharacteristic sub-100 yard game against Kansas.
   
9. Marcus Lattimore, RB-South Carolina (5-1)
   146rsh 779yd 5.3av 9TD 2fmb; 16rec 153yd 1TD
   Lattimore treaded water with 102 yards against Kentucky.
10. Trent Richardson, RB-Alabama (6-0)
    115rsh 729yd 6.3av 11TD 0fmb; 13rec 149yd 1TD
    Richardson also had just over 100 yards in Alabama's win.
11. Landry Jones, QB-Oklahoma (5-0)
    142-205 69% 1814yds 13TD 5int; 10rsh 2yd 0.2ave 2TD 0fmb
    Jones was a pre-season favorite for many but just enters our rankings after week 6.
    

Russell Wilson was idle last week, and Robert Griffin made his case again as the best dual-threat quarterback in the country. He rushed for over 100 yards for the first time this year, and now sits at #2 in passing efficiency. #1? Russell Wilson.

Case Keenum rises another spot to #7 as he closes in on several NCAA records, something that could earn him a trip to New York. Winning the trophy is a longshot as the "system quarterback" tag is normally invoked for highly-productive quarterbacks from non-AQ conferences. He displaces Justin Blackmon, who had another sub-100 yard receiving effort and is far behind his stats from last year.

SEC running backs Marcus Lattimore and Trent Richardson both had just over 100 yards in winning performances. It will take more than that to win the trophy, though. With Alabama looking unstoppable and South Carolina already saddled with a loss, Richardson's long-term odds look better than Lattimore's, and he's ahead of Mark Ingram's pace in his 2009 Heisman season.

Added this week is Landry Jones. Oklahoma is undefeated and has been one of the top teams all year, and Jones led their blowout of Texas with three touchdown passes. For the year his numbers are strong but his interception count has been a limiting factor. If the Sooners stay undefeated he's got a chance, but if they lose a game it's doubtful he'll be a finalist.

2011 SportsRatings Top 25 - week six: Top Teams Roll

The SportsRatings Weekly Top 25 is a subjective ranking of the top 25 college football teams in the style of the AP or USA/Coaches poll. Our rankings properly reflect head-to-head results and give additional consideration to teams who have victories over other top 25 teams.

The top five teams all blitzed their opponents this week, leading to no change in the top 10. #1 Alabama shut out a decent Vanderbilt team, 34-0; #2 Stanford crushed Colorado 48-7; #3 Oklahoma, of course, demolished former #25 Texas 55-17; #4 Boise State absolutely dominated Fresno State 57-7; and #5 Louisiana State beat former #13 Florida 41-11. #6 Wisconsin was idle.

With #7 Oklahoma State smacking Kansas 70-28, #8 Clemson downing Boston College 36-14, #9 Oregon handling former #24 California 43-15, and #10 Illinois beating Indiana 41-20, the top ten remained the same.

The closest we came to making a change concerned Clemson, one of only two teams to have two wins over current top 25 squads. But Auburn is only #25 and Oklahoma State was so explosive last week that it's hard to justify; there will be ample time to sort out the exact positions these teams should hold. The same goes for LSU, who beat Florida; the Gators fall out of the rankings, and it's hard to move Boise State down for their performance against Fresno.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week 6 2011 (thru 10/08/2011)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Alabama	6-0	wArk 38-14, @PennSt 27-11, @FLA 38-10
2	2	Stanford	5-0
3	3	Oklahoma	5-0	w=Texas 55-17
4	4	Boise State	5-0
5	5	Louisiana State	6-0	wOregon 40-27, FLA 41-11
6	6	Wisconsin	5-0	wNebraska 48-17
7	7	Oklahoma State	5-0
8	8	Clemson	6-0	w@VTech 23-3, Auburn 38-24
9	9	Oregon	4-1	L@LSU 40-27; wCal 43-15
10	10	Illinois	6-0	wASU 17-14
11	11	Arkansas	4-1	L@Alabama 38-14; wAuburn 38-14
12	12	Michigan	6-0
15	13	Georgia Tech	6-0	wUNC 35-28
14	14	Arizona State	5-1	L@ILL 17-14; wUSC 43-22
16	15	Kansas State	5-0	wBaylor 36-35
17	16	Virginia Tech	5-1	L Clemson 23-3
18	17	Nebraska	5-1	L@Wisc 48-17; wWash 51-38
19	18	Washington	4-1	L@Neb 51-38; wCal 31-23
20	19	Southern Cal	4-1	L@ASU 43-22
22	20	South Carolina	5-1	L Auburn 16-13
23	21	Baylor	4-1	L@KState 36-35
--	22	Houston	6-0
--	23	North Carolina	5-1	L@GTech 35-28
--	24	Penn State	5-1	L Alabama 27-11
21	25	Auburn	4-2	L@Clem 38-24, @Ark 38-14; w@SC 16-13
		out:
13	--	Florida	4-2	L Alabama 38-10, @LSU 41-11
24	--	California	3-2	L@Wash 31-23, @Oregon 43-15
25	--	Texas	4-1	L=Oklahoma 55-17

Arkansas held their spot at #11 by beating Auburn 38-14, and Michigan remained undefeated and held at #12.

Georgia Tech escaped Maryland to stay unbeaten, and jumped past Arizona State at #13. The Sun Devils beat Utah 35-14 but have a loss to Illinois. #15 Kansas State held off Missouri to move to 5-0.

Virginia Tech and  Nebraska each moved up a spot; the Hokies edged Miami 38-35 and the Cornhuskers rallied to beat Ohio State 34-27. Washington  and Southern Cal were idle but each moves up a spot to #18 and #19.

#20 South Carolina ran roughshod over Kentucky, 56-3, despite playing without Stephen Garcia (who was since dismissed). #21 Baylor beat Iowa State 49-26.

The namesake teams of the top football states all exit the rankings this week: Florida, California, and Texas. The Gators and Bears suffered their second losses, and Texas was obliterated by Oklahoma. Still, despite the margins, Florida and Texas have only lost to undefeated teams and are in good position to return promptly as each team plays a ranked team this weekend.

Replacing the three are undefeated Houston; North Carolina, whose only loss is to Georgia Tech; and Penn State who fell only to Alabama. Houston rolled last week, 56-3 over East Carolina, while the Tar Heels and Nittany Lions used defense to top Louisville 14-7 and Iowa 13-3 respectively. Other teams whose only loss is to a top 25 squad including West Virginia (to LSU, 47-21) and, perhaps surprisingly, Louisiana-Lafayette, who lost 61-34 to Oklahoma State. Rutgers can also be counted in this group now that North Carolina is ranked.

We kept Auburn in at #25 due to their win over South Carolina; this keeps the top 25 very solid, as no ranked team has a loss to an unranked team. This week the Tigers play Florida, who have lost only to undefeated teams Alabama and LSU.

2011 Conference Final Standings Projections - week six: FSU tanks in the ACC

FBS Conference Projected Standings for 2011 season

Updated for games through October 8, 2011. Non-AQ conferences without ranking changes are not listed; for last week's projections click here.

We use "fuzzy logic" which allows for partial wins and losses to project the most likely conference winners based on our pre-season rankings. Actual results are integrated as the season progresses.

rank = projected ranking position at end of season
lw = last week's ranking
proj W = projected conference wins at end of season
proj L = projected conference losses at end of season
W = current actual conference wins
L = current actual conference losses

ACC
rank	lw	Atlantic division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	2	Clemson	6.18	1.82	3	0
2	1	Florida State	5.38	2.62	0	2
3	4	Wake Forest	4.26	3.74	3	0
4	3	Maryland	3.83	4.17	1	1
5	5	North Carolina State	3.24	4.76	0	2
6	6	Boston College	1.76	6.24	0	3
rank	lw	Coastal division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Virginia Tech	5.78	2.22	1	1
2	3	Georgia Tech	4.63	3.37	3	0
3	4	North Carolina	3.96	4.04	1	1
4	2	Miami FL	3.75	4.25	0	2
5	5	Duke	3.19	4.81	1	0
6	6	Virginia	2.03	5.97	0	1

Just two games into their ACC schedule and Florida State slips out of the top spot. FSU started the year an overwhelming favorite in the Atlantic division but a loss to Clemson and particularly the one to Wake Forest killed that. Their remaining schedule is still pretty easy, so there's no reason they can't recover and do well this year—they're a full game ahead of Wake Forest in our projection—but if three losses in a row have destroyed their attitude, they'll sink further. Their fall leaves 3-0 Clemson a huge favorite in the Atlantic and Wake Forest even moves up to #3.

In the Coastal division, Georgia Tech continues their climb and looks to challenge Virginia Tech. Miami has suffered two close losses and it might be that kind of year for the Hurricanes. They play North Carolina this weekend and need a win if they want to finish in the top half of the division.
   

rank	lw	Big East	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	2	West Virginia	4.84	2.16	1	0
2	1	Pittsburgh	4.21	2.79	1	1
3	3	Cincinnati	4.05	2.95	0	0
4	4	South Florida	3.53	3.47	0	1
5	5	Louisville	3.25	3.75	0	0
6	7	Rutgers	3.19	3.81	2	0
7	6	Connecticut	2.94	4.06	0	1
8	8	Syracuse	1.98	5.02	0	1

Pittsburgh was a slight favorite last week in the tightest conference, but their blowout loss to Rutgers drops them to a precarious #2. The beneficiary is West Virginia, who looks like the only team that will go 5-2 in the Big East. From #2 to #6 the difference is just one game: 4-3 vs. 3-4, so these teams could be in any order (as witnessed by Rutgers beating Pitt 34-10). The Scarlet Knights are probably a lot better than we gave them credit for, so they are the most likely team to exceed these expectations. There are only two intra-conference games this week, Louisville-Cincinnati and South Florida-Connecticut.

Big Ten
rank	lw	Leaders division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Wisconsin	6.61	1.39	1	0
2	2	Illinois	5.39	2.61	2	0
3	4	Penn State	4.53	3.47	2	0
4	3	Ohio State	4.46	3.54	0	2
5	5	Purdue	3.03	4.97	1	0
6	6	Indiana	0.90	7.10	0	2
rank	lw	Legends division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	3	Nebraska	5.24	2.76	1	1
2	1	Michigan State	5.08	2.92	1	0
3	4	Michigan	4.43	3.57	2	0
4	2	Iowa	4.28	3.72	0	1
5	5	Northwestern	2.46	5.54	0	2
6	6	Minnesota	1.60	6.40	0	2

Illinois keeps up with Wisconsin and even Penn State is now 2-0 after beating Iowa, dropping Ohio State to #4 in the Leaders division. As bad as they've been, that's probably as far as they'll drop; they led Nebraska most of the way and Purdue and especially Indiana won't challenge them.

Speaking of the Cornhuskers, the win over the Buckeyes put them back on track to win the Legends division, but since they have a loss they'll have to beat all their challengers, most obviously Michigan State and Michigan, who play this weekend. Iowa is a close 4th and plays #5 Northwestern this weekend; they'll hold the spot win or lose as the Wildcats themselves are 0-2.
    

rank	lw	Big Twelve	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Oklahoma	7.88	1.12	2	0
2	2	Oklahoma State	7.27	1.73	2	0
3	3	Texas A&M	6.45	2.55	1	1
4	4	Missouri	4.95	4.05	0	2
5	5	Texas	4.79	4.21	1	1
6	6	Kansas State	4.63	4.37	2	0
7	7	Texas Tech	3.11	5.89	1	1
8	8	Baylor	3.06	5.94	1	1
9	9	Iowa State	2.00	7.00	0	2
10	10	Kansas	0.87	8.13	0	2

Surprisingly no change in the projected ordering of the Big Twelve. Oklahoma's bombing of Texas was basically expected, so if affected neither team very much. Kansas State's win over Missouri pulled the Tigers and Wildcats closer into a virtual 3-way tie for #4 with the Longhorns. The big game this week is probably Baylor vs. Texas A&M; both teams have big potential but have dropped close conference games. Oklahoma State has to keep up with Oklahoma by beating Texas, too, another big opportunity (and possible disaster) for Texas.

Pac-12
rank	lw	North division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Oregon	8.13	0.87	2	0
2	2	Stanford	7.71	1.29	3	0
3	3	Washington	4.81	4.19	2	0
4	4	California	4.13	4.87	0	2
5	5	Oregon State	3.44	5.56	1	2
6	6	Washington State	2.57	6.43	1	1
rank	lw	South division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Arizona State	6.17	2.83	3	0
2	2	USC	5.01	3.99	2	1
3	3	UCLA	4.84	4.16	2	1
4	4	Utah	3.00	6.00	0	3
5	5	Arizona	2.84	6.16	0	4
6	6	Colorado	1.34	7.66	0	2

Nothing too shocking happened in the Pac-12 last weekend, so there was no movement in the projections. The closest thing to an upset was Oregon State beating Arizona, which moved neither team but did lead to the Wildcats losing their head coach. How this will affect the team we don't know—sometimes teams start winning mid-stream with a coaching change, and Arizona's schedule is much easier from here on out having faced Oregon, Stanford, and USC already. Oregon takes on Arizona State this Saturday in a contest that could be a preview of the Pac-12 Championship game.

SEC
rank	lw	East division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	South Carolina	5.55	2.45	3	1
2	2	Georgia	5.48	2.52	3	1
3	3	Florida	4.17	3.83	2	2
4	4	Kentucky	2.45	5.55	0	3
5	6	Vanderbilt	2.15	5.85	1	2
6	5	Tennessee	1.93	6.07	0	2
rank	lw	West division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Alabama	7.24	0.76	3	0
2	2	LSU	6.16	1.84	3	0
3	4	Arkansas	5.03	2.97	1	1
4	3	Auburn	4.46	3.54	2	1
5	5	Mississippi State	2.61	5.39	0	3
6	6	Mississippi	0.77	7.23	0	2

Georgia pulled closer to South Carolina, but the Gamecocks already beat the Bulldogs and that should be the difference as long as Stephen Garcia's departure doesn't rattle them. Based on the Kentucky win they'll be just fine. Tennessee's loss to Georgia hurt them; we expected them to lose but they had a decent shot at winning, and they lose that "percentage." Will they really finish below Vanderbilt? Well, look at their schedule: their next 4 SEC games are LSU, Alabama, South Carolina, and Arkansas. Then they play Vandy in a game that could save them from the cellar.

Alabama and LSU continue on their collision course, while Arkansas pulled away from Auburn with a win over the Tigers. The Mississippi teams already have been relegated to spoiler status, something that was expected of the Rebels but not the Bulldogs.
    

MAC
rank	lw	East division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Temple	5.71	2.29	2	1
2	2	Ohio	4.28	3.72	1	1
3	3	Miami OH	4.12	3.88	0	1
4	4	Kent State	3.61	4.39	0	2
5	5	Bowling Green	3.15	4.85	1	1
6	6	Buffalo	2.48	5.52	1	1
7	7	Akron	1.14	6.86	0	2
rank	lw	West division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Western Michigan	6.12	1.88	2	0
2	3	Northern Illinois	5.84	2.16	1	1
3	2	Toledo	5.75	2.25	2	0
4	4	Central Michigan	4.68	3.32	1	1
5	5	Ball State	3.08	4.92	1	1
6	6	Eastern Michigan	2.05	5.95	1	1

Everything went pretty much to plan in the Mid-American conference last week, but the tight battle for #1 in the West continues. Western Michigan beat Bowling Green to remain the favorite, but Northern Illinois' win over Kent State was worth more than Toledo's beatdown of Eastern Michigan, which was almost a given. This weekend is a big one as the Huskies host the Broncos; the winner takes firm control of the West (projection-wise). Toledo is waiting for their shot at the top teams in the West, having already demolished East leader Temple.

Note that the West is 8-4 in conference play and the East 5-9.

rank	lw	Mountain West	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	2	TCU	6.32	0.68	2	0
2	1	Boise State	6.23	0.77	0	0
3	3	Air Force	4.73	2.27	0	1
4	4	San Diego State	4.03	2.97	0	1
5	5	Colorado State	2.29	4.71	1	0
6	6	Wyoming	1.98	5.02	0	0
7	7	UNLV	1.49	5.51	0	0
8	8	New Mexico	0.93	6.07	0	1

TCU replacing Boise State at #1 in the MWC? What does it mean??? No more than a double-rainbow, i.e., just a fluke. TCU is 2-0 and Boise hasn't played a conference game. TCU's projected loss value comes almost completely from the Broncos, as the Horned Frogs have already defeated #3 Air Force and #4 San Diego State, the only other decent teams in the conference. Their odds of losing to the bottom four are almost zero. So with two wins under their belt they take a theoretical lead, but the head-to-head contest will decide everything.

Air Force and San Diego State play Thursday in a game that should determine who finishes #3 in the conference.
     

rank	lw	Sun Belt	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Arkansas State	6.53	1.47	2	0
2	3	Florida International	5.11	2.89	1	1
3	4	Louisiana Lafayette	5.02	2.98	3	0
4	2	Troy	4.50	3.50	1	1
5	6	Western Kentucky	3.97	4.03	1	1
6	7	North Texas	3.75	4.25	1	1
7	5	Louisiana Monroe	3.63	4.37	0	1
8	8	Middle Tennessee St	2.07	5.93	0	2
9	9	Florida Atlantic	1.42	6.58	0	2

Louisiana-Lafayette continues their incredible run, beating perennial conference favorite Troy last weekend and moving into a virtual tie for 2nd place in our Sun Belt projections. Since they already beat FIU they're in the driver's seat to finish #2. Troy falls to #4. Western Kentucky's win over MTSU pushes them up to #5 with North Texas #6 after beating FAU. ULM fell to Arkansas State as expected, but the three teams were in a tight logjam last week so even the expected results were enough to cause some movement.

rank	lw	WAC	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Nevada	6.14	0.86	1	0
2	2	Hawaii	4.65	2.35	1	0
3	3	Fresno State	4.25	2.75	1	0
4	5	Louisiana Tech	3.72	3.28	1	1
5	4	San Jose State	3.50	3.50	1	1
6	6	Utah State	2.72	4.28	0	0
7	7	Idaho	2.22	4.78	0	2
8	8	New Mexico State	0.79	6.21	0	1

No big news here, just a bit of movement from expected results, as Louisiana Tech gets a win under their belt that edges them past San Jose State. Most teams played non-conference games last week, but this week is different. All of the games have heavy favorites, so any upsets should shuffle things around a bit. This is the conference where they current standings most cleanly reflect the year-end projections, with only the bottom two being out of order.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - Week 6: Here Comes the Big Ten

Here we project the final 2011 BCS Standings using our "fuzzy logic" win counter, with a power rating designed to work based on partial victories and defeats. We use our pre-season rankings as a starting point and actual results are added each week.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - Week 6 (10/8/2011)

lw	proj	Team	Proj W	Proj L	BCS Bowl	W	L	USA rank
1	1	Alabama	11.86	1.14	BCS Title	6	0	3
2	2	Oklahoma	10.87	1.13	BCS Title	5	0	1
3	3	LSU	10.14	1.86	Sugar	6	0	2
4	4	Oklahoma St	10.26	1.74	Fiesta	5	0	7
5	5	Boise St	11.22	0.78	Sugar	5	0	6
6	6	Wisconsin	11.31	1.69	Rose	5	0	4
7	7	Stanford	11.40	1.60	Rose	5	0	5
9	8	South Carolina	9.71	3.29		5	1	13
10	9	Arkansas	9.04	2.96		5	1	11
8	10	Oregon	10.13	1.87		4	1	9
11	11	Clemson	9.75	3.25	Orange	6	0	8
15	12	Virginia Tech	10.40	2.60		5	1	17
16	13	Illinois	9.39	2.61		6	0	15
19	14	Nebraska	9.55	3.45	Fiesta	5	1	14
20	15	Michigan	8.43	3.57		6	0	10
13	16	Texas A&M	8.44	3.56		3	2	23
14	17	Auburn	7.45	4.55		4	2	--
12	18	Texas	7.78	4.22		4	1	21
25	19	Kansas St	7.64	4.36		5	0	18
22	20	Georgia Tech	7.90	4.10		6	0	12
--	21	Georgia	8.21	3.79		4	2	--
24	22	Notre Dame	8.20	3.80		4	2	--
--	23	West Virginia	8.84	3.16	Orange	5	1	16
18	24	Missouri	6.95	5.05		2	3	--
--	25	Michigan St	8.08	3.92		4	1	19

This projection yields the following likely BCS Bowl pairups (changes from last week in bold):

BCS Championship Game:	Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Rose Bowl:	Stanford vs. Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl:	Oklahoma State vs. Nebraska
Sugar Bowl:	LSU vs. Boise State
Orange Bowl:	Clemson vs. West Virginia

Same story as last week, with the SEC and Big Twelve favorites expected in the BCS Championship game, and the runner-ups in those conferences waiting in line in case they can pull of the upset. The Big Ten and Pac-10 favorites in the Rose Bowl, naturally, and the ACC and Big East favorites in the Orange.

The one change in the projected bowl pairings is due to the rise of Nebraska after their comeback win over Ohio State. Despite losing to Wisconsin badly two weeks ago, they're 5-1 and their path, while not exactly clear, gives them a good shot at winning the Big Ten Legends division and finishing in the top 14, making them eligible for a BCS bowl.

Based on this finish, the Fiesta chooses their 2nd team, they'll pick between Boise State, Oregon, Virginia Tech, Illinois, Nebraska, and West Virginia. South Carolina and Arkansas aren't eligible due to the 2-team-per-conference limit. The Virginia teams are a bad pick distance-wise and aren't high rated in the standings. Boise and Oregon make more sense regionally, but Boise won't create much interest. Of the Big Ten teams, Nebraska will travel much better than Illinois. So it would come down to Oregon and Nebraska, and matching the Cornhuskers against their old Big Twelve foe is probably what the Fiesta Bowl would want.

But Nebraska is a borderline qualifier in this scenario; Michigan is right behind them and could win the division as well, and they'd make a great selection too. Along with Illinois that's three Big Ten teams that have increased their stock this week, and all three have met or exceeded expectations so far. Illinois is 6-0 and for most, that's a surprise; we picked the Illini to start 6-0 but actually getting there puts them in position to argue for a BCS berth. The road ahead gets tougher though with games against Michigan and Wisconsin. The Wolverines are undefeated but they face some tests ahead, too (Michigan State, Illinois, Nebraska, even Ohio State). 5-1 Nebraska plays Michigan and Michigan State. The Spartans poke into the rankings, too, but they play Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nebraska in the next three weeks, at which time we'll probably be able to make a pretty good judgement of where they stand.

By the end of the season one of these teams will almost certainly be in the top 14, and since the Big Ten has sent two teams to BCS bowls every year since the BCS' inception, don't bet against the conference's #2 squad making the cut. How the Big Ten's first conference championship game affects matters is unknown; with Wisconsin looking pretty dominant, it might be better to finish #2 in the Legends division than take a late-season loss to the Badgers.

Despite the Big Ten's surge, the standings are all about the SEC and Big Twelve and will remain so. Even as Texas A&M, Auburn, and Texas slide out of BCS bowl territory (for now), undefeated Kansas State makes a decent move up and Georgia is not completely out of the picture yet; both won important games last week. In all 12 of the 25 teams are from those two conferences (6 SEC, 6 Big Twelve), with 5 from the Big Ten, 3 from the ACC, 2 Pac-12, 1 Big East, and 2 other (Boise State and Notre Dame).

Next week the first BCS standings come out, and we'll switch from using the USA/Coaches poll to integrating the current BCS placement, before projecting forward with our fuzzy future game results.

2011 Heisman Race Week 5: Russell Wilson the new Robert Griffin?

A couple of candidates stumbled this week: Kellen Moore stumbled while winning big; Robert Griffin stumbled at the very end of a loss; and Marcus Lattimore had a generally poor performance in his team's loss. The best performance in a big game went to Wisconsin's Russell Wilson, while newcomer Trent Richardson had his best outing for Alabama.

Andrew Luck retakes our top spot. He was nearly perfect (23 of 27) against UCLA, and had a Heisman moment with a 1-handed sideline catch. It didn't win the game for the Cardinal but it will be replay many a time on YouTube. Meanwhile Kellen Moore had a subpar performance against Nevada. The Broncos won easily, 30-10, but Moore wasn't himself completing just 58% and throwing two interceptions. He falls to #2 as, due to Boise's easier schedule, he's held to a higher standard.

Michigan's Denard Robinson arguably had his first solid passing performance of the year, as he completed 15 of 19 throws for two touchdowns. Rushing is what his candidacy is built on and he added only 51 yards to that total. However, it's looking more and more like the team could keep winning, which is necessary for Robinson to remain a viable candidate. LaMichael James was idle this week but still leads the country in rushing yards per game and stays at #4.

Pushing his way into the top five is Russell Wilson, the Heisman's new man of the moment. Starring in Wisconsin's thrashing of Nebraska, Wilson put on quite a show (2 TDs in the air, 1 on the ground) and with the Badgers looking unstoppable in the Big Ten he can ride the tide of a winning team. Last week everyone was talking about Robert Griffin (and for good reason), but now it's seems clear that Wisconsin is going to win more games than Baylor and that always ends up being an important consideration to voters.

2011 Heisman Race after week five

1. ^ Andrew Luck, QB-Stanford (4-0)
   80-112 71% 1013 yd 11TD 1int; 11rsh 58yd 5.3av 1TD 0fmb; 1rec 13yds 0TDs
   23 of 27, 3 TDs, and one incredible 1-handed catch puts Luck back on top.
   
2. v Kellen Moore, QB-Boise State (4-0)
   102-138 74% 1137yd 14TD 4int; 5rsh -6yd -1.2av 0TD 0fmb
   Moore had his worst game of the year, throwing 2 interceptions in any easy win.
3. Denard Robinson, QB-Michigan (5-0)
   50-91 55% 793yd 8TD 6int; 77rsh 603yd 7.8av 6TD 0fmb
   Just 51 yards rushing but Robinson had his best passing outing, hitting 15 of 19 in a 58-0 romp.
4. LaMichael James, RB-Oregon (3-1)
   65rsh 613yd 9.4ave 9TD 0fmb; 11rec 159yd 1TD; 135ret yds 1TD
   Oregon was idle last week.
5. ^ Russell Wilson, QB-Wisconsin (5-0)
   83-111 75% 1391yd 13TD 1int; 22rsh 140yd 6.4av 2TD 0fmb
   Wilson was the star of the big win over Nebraska.
6. v Robert Griffin III, QB-Baylor (3-1)
   92-112 82% 1308yd 18TD 1int; 36rsh 173yd 4.8av 1TD 2fmb; 15 rec yds
   Griffin had an incredible day until the pick that lost the game against Kansas State.
   
7. Justin Blackmon, WR-Oklahoma State (4-0)
   38rec 450yd 5TD 1fmb; 2rsh 6yds 3.0 ave 0TD
   Oklahoma State was idle last week.
   
8. ^ Case Keenum, QB-Houston (5-0)
   140-201 70% 14TD 2int; 22rsh 36yd 1.6av 0TD 1fmb
   Keenum led Houston to another narrow victory, the Cougars' 3rd this year.
9. v Marcus Lattimore, RB-South Carolina (4-1)
   124rsh 677yd 5.5av 9TD 2fmb; 12rec 139yd 1TD
   Lattimore had 66 yards and a fumble in South Carolina's loss to Auburn.
10. Trent Richardson, RB-Alabama (5-0)
    96rsh 622yd 6.5av 10TD 0fmb; 11rec 148yd 1TD
    Richardson rushed for 181 yards against Florida, his 4th straight 100+ performance
    

Last week it seemed inevitable that Robert Griffin would push his way into the top three if not to #1 in short order, but now the question remains: how many games is Baylor going to win? After losing to Kansas State, a 6-6 finish isn't out of the question, and that would kill his hopes the same way Michigan's 7-5 finish did Denard Robinson's last year. Griffin can hardly be blamed for his team's loss as the Bears' offense scored 35 points, all on Griffin touchdown passes. But late in the game he threw a crucial interception that gave the Wildcats the game. We don't downgrade him for the performance, but with Wilson pushing past him he falls to #6. With his stats, he's not out of it by a longshot, but he's going to have to perform miracles to keep his team winning week in and week out.

#7 Justin Blackmon was idle last week. Case Keenum rises a spot to #8 as Marcus Lattimore falls. Keenum passed for 471 yards in a winning effort as Lattimore rushed for just 66 while losing to Auburn.

Trent Richardson is added to the list this week. The top teams usually have a dog in the race and Richardson is showing that he should be Alabama's representative after rushing for 181 yards against Florida. He also had 126 in the Tide's win over Arkansas; that's two good performances against top 25 teams.

2011 SportsRatings Top 25 - week 5: Rankings scrambled, Alabama new #1

The SportsRatings Weekly Top 25 is a subjective ranking of the top 25 college football teams in the style of the AP or USA/Coaches poll. Our rankings properly reflect head-to-head results and give additional consideration to teams who have victories over other top 25 teams.

There was a considerable shakeup among the ranked teams this week, with eight teams in the top 25 losing games, mostly to other ranked teams. The top seven teams didn't lose but we move Alabama to the top, displacing Stanford to #2. For the second straight week the Tide dominated a top ten opponent, beating former #9 Florida 38-10 on the road, and now hold two top 25 wins while Stanford, Oklahoma, and Boise State have none.

#2 Stanford drubbed UCLA 45-19, comparable to the beating Texas gave the Bruins; Oklahoma actually exceeded expectations in destroying Ball State 62-6; and Boise State got revenge on Nevada for last year's season-destroying upset, 30-10 (for comparison, Oregon beat Nevada 69-20). #5 Louisiana State took it easy on Kentucky, winning just 35-7 (Florida beat Kentucky the previous week 48-10).

The big game of the week was supposed to be #6 Wisconsin vs. #14 Nebraska, but it turned into a 48-17 rout as the Badgers got a win over their first live opponent of the season. #7 Oklahoma State was idle.

The real big game of the week turned out to be Clemson's 23-3 shutdown of Virginia Tech. For the second straight week the Tigers beat the supposed best team in the ACC, and for the third straight week they beat a top 25 foe. With Auburn's re-introduction into the top 25, Clemson now holds two top 25 wins, the only team other than Alabama to do so, and they leap from #16 to #8 in our rankings. Oregon slides up a spot to #9, and Illinois moves into the top ten after their third straight 3-point victory. The Illini have won all 5 of their games at home.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week 5 2011 (thru 10/01/2011)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
2	1	Alabama	5-0	wArk 38-14, @FLA 38-10
1	2	Stanford	4-0
3	3	Oklahoma	4-0
4	4	Boise State	4-0
5	5	Louisiana State	5-0	wOregon 40-27
6	6	Wisconsin	5-0	wNebraska 48-17
7	7	Oklahoma State	4-0	w@TexAM 30-29
16	8	Clemson	5-0	w@VTech 23-3, Auburn 38-24
10	9	Oregon	3-1	L@LSU 40-27
12	10	Illinois	5-0	wASU 17-14
20	11	Arkansas	3-1	L@Bama 38-14; w=TexAM 42-38
23	12	Michigan	5-0
9	13	Florida	4-1	L Alabama 38-10
17	14	Arizona State	4-1	L@ILL 17-14; wUSC 43-22
25	15	Georgia Tech	5-0
--	16	Kansas State	4-0	wBaylor 36-35
11	17	Virginia Tech	4-1	L Clemson 23-3
14	18	Nebraska	4-1	L@Wisc 48-17; wWash 51-38
19	19	Washington	4-1	L@Neb 51-38; wCal 31-23
22	20	Southern Cal	4-1	L@ASU 43-22
--	21	Auburn	4-1	L@Clem 38-24; w@SC 16-13
8	22	South Carolina	4-1	L Auburn 16-13
13	23	Baylor	3-1	L@KState 36-35; wTCU 50-48
24	24	California	3-1	L@Wash 31-23
--	25	Texas	4-0
		out:
15	--	South Florida	4-1	L@Pitt 44-17
18	--	Texas A&M	2-2	L OKst 30-29, =Ark 42-38
21	--	TCU	3-2	L@Baylor 50-48, SMU 40-33ot

Arkansas bounced back from last week's loss to Alabama with a comeback win over Texas A&M, 42-38. With most of the losing teams in the second ten, the Razorbacks jump back up to #11, followed by 5-0 Michigan who beat Minnesota 58-0—but like Illinois have yet to play a road game. Florida (this week's Alabama victim) dropped to #13 while Arizona State moved up three spots after handling Oregon State 35-20.

Georgia Tech and Kansas State, both undefeated, make big moves. The Yellow Jackets beat North Carolina State and are now 5-0 as they leap past many fallen teams from #25 to #15. Kansas State upset Baylor 36-35 and are 4-0; they debut at #16.

Virginia Tech's loss drops them from #11 to #17, and Nebraska falls to #18, remaining ahead of Washington as they beat they Huskies three weeks ago. Washington beat Utah 31-14 this week and holds at #19. Right behind them is Southern Cal; they outlasted Arizona 48-41.

Auburn re-enters the top 25 at #21 after beating former #8 South Carolina 16-13, knocking the Gamecocks all the way down to #22. Auburn lost earlier in the year to Clemson; this is the third close game they've won this season.

It wasn't a good week for Baylor. They drop ten spots to #23 for their loss to Kansas State; they also lose bragging rights as TCU drops out of the top 25 after being upset by SMU, 40-33, in overtime. Former #15 South Florida drops out after losing to unranked Pittsburgh, 44-17, and Texas A&M's 2nd loss puts them out to pasture as well.

The Texas Longhorns debut in our top 25 this year at #25, right behind idle California. The Longhorns beat up on previously undefeated Iowa State, 37-14, a week after beating up on UCLA, giving them two road victories in a row over teams that beat them at home last year. They've got a tough road ahead of them in the Big Twelve, though, starting next week with #3 Oklahoma.

Two other undefeated Texas teams are still left out: Texas Tech (4-0) and Houston (5-0). Neither has played a tough schedule and both have had close calls. We're not going too far out on a limb by excluding them, as they are also the only undefeated teams absent from the AP and coaches polls this week.

2011 Conference Final Standings Projections - week five: Big Ten shuffled

FBS Conference Projected Standings for 2011 season

Updated for games through October 1, 2011 (week 5)

We use "fuzzy logic" which allows for partial wins and losses to project the most likely conference winners based on our pre-season rankings. Actual results are integrated as the season progresses.

We list all BCS conferences, and other conferences with ranking changes; see previous posts for conferences not included this round.

rank = projected ranking position at end of season
lw = last week's ranking
proj W = projected conference wins at end of season
proj L = projected conference losses at end of season
W = current actual conference wins
L = current actual conference losses

ACC
rank	lw	Atlantic division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Florida State	6.33	1.67	0	1
2	2	Clemson	5.82	2.18	2	0
3	3	Maryland	4.43	3.57	1	0
4	6	Wake Forest	3.32	4.68	2	0
5	4	North Carolina State	3.24	4.76	0	2
6	5	Boston College	2.11	5.89	0	2
rank	lw	Coastal division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Virginia Tech	5.48	2.52	0	1
2	2	Miami FL	4.05	3.95	0	1
3	4	Georgia Tech	4.04	3.96	2	0
4	3	North Carolina	3.96	4.04	1	1
5	5	Duke	3.19	4.81	1	0
6	6	Virginia	2.03	5.97	0	1

The Tigers did it again: For the second straight week Clemson upset a division favorite, beating Virginia Tech 23-3. It doesn't put them on top of our Atlantic division projection, but they're within a 1/2 game and hold the tiebreaker over FSU already, so they're in the driver's seat. The moves in the Atlantic come from Wake Forest's win over Boston College, which sends the Eagles to the cellar and jumps the Deacons above N.C. State, who is also off to an 0-2 start.

On the Coastal side, Georgia Tech continues their rise as they beat the Wolf Pack Saturday, passing their first real road test. They're virtually tied with Miami in the projection, but still behind the Hokies who remain a big favorite. The Hurricane and Hokie defenses have shut down Tech's option attack in the past, but if this year's model is different the Yellow Jackets could be back on top.
 

rank	lw	Big East	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Pittsburgh	5.00	2.00	1	0
2	2	West Virginia	4.61	2.39	0	0
3	3	Cincinnati	4.05	2.95	0	0
4	4	South Florida	3.53	3.47	0	1
5	5	Louisville	3.25	3.75	0	0
6	6	Connecticut	3.18	3.82	0	0
7	8	Rutgers	2.40	4.60	1	0
8	7	Syracuse	1.98	5.02	0	1

Pitt's big win over South Florida doesn't change much in the Big East race, with both teams retaining their expected finishes. The Panthers look set for a 5-2 result, which should be enough to win the league provided they beat West Virginia, who should stick close. The only change from the initial conference games is that Rutgers' overtime win relegates Syracuse to the cellar.

Big Ten
rank	lw	Leaders division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Wisconsin	6.61	1.39	1	0
2	3	Illinois	5.26	2.74	1	0
3	2	Ohio State	5.01	2.99	0	1
4	4	Penn State	4.10	3.90	1	0
5	5	Purdue	2.60	5.40	0	0
6	6	Indiana	1.02	6.98	0	1
rank	lw	Legends division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	3	Michigan State	5.08	2.92	1	0
2	2	Iowa	4.71	3.29	0	0
3	1	Nebraska	4.70	3.30	0	1
4	4	Michigan	4.00	4.00	1	0
5	5	Northwestern	2.89	5.11	0	1
6	6	Minnesota	2.02	5.98	0	1

The Big Ten kicked off its conference season in a big way with projected Leaders winner Wisconsin beating projected Legends winner Nebraska. But the game that had the biggest effect was Michigan State's 10-7 win over Ohio State. That dropped the Buckeyes to third in the Leaders after just one game, and the future might not be too bright for the team; 5-3 would be considered a pretty strong comeback. The Buckeyes do get some pretty good players back from suspension but their schedule is pretty tough over the next few weeks.

On the Legends side, Michigan State's win puts them at #1, but it's close between the Spartans, the Iowa Hawkeyes, and Nebraska. The real team to watch is Michigan, who is projected at 4-4 in the league but has the potential to win it. Their schedule does get a lot harder—like it did last year when they "collapsed" after starting strong—and they've played every game at home so far. But the defense looks completely different than it did last year.

rank	lw	Big Twelve	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Oklahoma	7.71	1.29	1	0
2	2	Oklahoma State	7.26	1.74	1	0
3	3	Texas A&M	6.30	2.70	0	1
4	4	Missouri	5.66	3.34	0	1
5	5	Texas	4.95	4.05	1	0
6	6	Kansas State	3.91	5.09	1	0
7	8	Texas Tech	3.25	5.75	1	0
8	7	Baylor	2.64	6.36	0	1
9	9	Iowa State	2.42	6.58	0	1
10	10	Kansas	0.89	8.11	0	1

All of the teams that are 1-0 in conference play in the Big Twelve are also undefeated in all games so far. Not much changed for the league's projections this week except Baylor fell a notch for losing to Kansas State and Texas Tech moved up to replace them. The Bears have a great offense but their defense will lose games, and they have a gantlet to run in this league.

Pac-12
rank	lw	North division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Oregon	8.02	0.98	1	0
2	2	Stanford	7.69	1.31	2	0
3	3	Washington	4.81	4.19	2	0
4	4	California	4.24	4.76	0	1
5	5	Oregon State	3.06	5.94	0	2
6	6	Washington State	2.83	6.17	1	0
rank	lw	South division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Arizona State	5.69	3.31	2	0
2	2	USC	5.01	3.99	2	1
3	3	UCLA	4.58	4.42	1	1
4	4	Utah	3.48	5.52	0	2
5	5	Arizona	3.23	5.77	0	3
6	6	Colorado	1.36	7.64	0	1

There were no changes in projected rankings finish in the Pac-12. In the North, Stanford beat UCLA as expected to stay right up with Oregon before their showdown later this year. And in the South, Arizona State beat Oregon State to hold their projected top spot. Washington State took another step toward escaping the North cellar by beating South #6 Colorado, 31-27. The Buffaloes are expected to remain there despite Arizona's 0-3 start; the Wildcats lost a shootout to USC, 48-41.

SEC
rank	lw	East division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	South Carolina	5.43	2.57	2	1
2	3	Georgia	5.06	2.94	2	1
3	2	Florida	4.48	3.52	2	1
4	4	Kentucky	2.57	5.43	0	2
5	5	Tennessee	2.35	5.65	0	1
6	6	Vanderbilt	2.17	5.83	1	1
rank	lw	West division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Alabama	7.22	0.78	2	0
2	2	LSU	5.85	2.15	2	0
3	4	Auburn	4.81	3.19	2	0
4	3	Arkansas	4.68	3.32	0	1
5	5	Mississippi State	2.61	5.39	0	3
6	6	Mississippi	0.77	7.23	0	2

Despite being upset by Auburn, South Carolina is the projected winner of the East. They hold a win over Georgia, who moves up to 2nd place due to Florida's loss and their own win over Mississippi State. Remember when people were leaving them for dead just a few weeks ago?

In the West Alabama rules and if they falter, LSU will take over. Auburn's upset win displaces Arkansas at #3 but that's got to be their ceiling; Arkansas and Auburn play next week essentially for the #3 spot in the division. The Mississippi teams are firmly entrenched in the cellar, though the Bulldogs will win some games; the Rebels might not.
 

MAC
rank	lw	East division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Temple	5.42	2.58	1	1
2	2	Ohio	5.08	2.92	1	0
3	4	Miami OH	4.12	3.88	0	1
4	3	Kent State	3.76	4.24	0	1
5	5	Bowling Green	3.28	4.72	1	0
6	6	Buffalo	1.68	6.32	0	1
7	7	Akron	1.14	6.86	0	2
rank	lw	West division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	2	Western Michigan	5.99	2.01	1	0
2	3	Toledo	5.71	2.29	1	0
3	1	Northern Illinois	5.69	2.31	0	1
4	4	Central Michigan	4.68	3.32	1	1
5	5	Ball State	3.38	4.62	1	0
6	6	Eastern Michigan	2.08	5.92	1	0

Toledo, who lost to Boise State, Ohio State, and Syracuse (nearly beating both of the last two), faced projected East winner Temple, who throttled Maryland. It wasn't even close, as Toledo took out the frustrations of being robbed of the Syracuse game on the Owls, 36-13. Temple is still the pick in the East, as most of the best teams are in the West.

The real upset was Northern Illinois' 48-41 loss to Central Michigan. The race at the top was already tight, and now it's a 3-way race between Western Michigan (who beat UConn on Saturday), Toledo, and the Huskies. Western Michigan had little trouble with Central a few weeks ago, so they and the Rockets might end up pulling away from the erstwhile favorites.

rank	lw	WAC	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Nevada	6.14	0.86	1	0
2	3	Hawaii	4.65	2.35	1	0
3	2	Fresno State	4.25	2.75	1	0
4	5	San Jose State	3.50	3.50	1	1
5	4	Louisiana Tech	3.27	3.73	0	1
6	6	Utah State	2.72	4.28	0	0
7	7	Idaho	2.67	4.33	0	1
8	8	New Mexico State	0.79	6.21	0	1

Hawaii topped Louisiana Tech 44-26 on the road, a result that pushed the Warriors up to #2 in the WAC projection and dropped the Bulldogs to 5th. Nevada (1-3) has quite a lead at #1, which may seem odd but their losses are to top ten teams Oregon and Boise State, as well as undefeated Texas Tech by a point. They have a road win over projected #4 San Jose State already, and they have yet to play a game at home. They also play Hawaii and Fresno at home.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - Week 5: Orange Bowl changes again

Here we project the final 2011 BCS Standings using our "fuzzy logic" win counter, with a power rating designed to work based on partial victories and defeats. We use our pre-season rankings as a starting point and actual results are added each week.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - Week 5 (10/1/2011)

lw	proj	Team	Proj W	Proj L	BCS Bowl	W	L	USA rank
2	1	Alabama	11.84	1.16	BCS Title	5	0	3
1	2	Oklahoma	10.71	1.29	BCS Title	4	0	1
3	3	LSU	9.83	2.17	Sugar	5	0	2
4	4	Oklahoma St	10.25	1.75	Fiesta	4	0	7
6	5	Boise St	11.15	0.85	Sugar	4	0	6
8	6	Wisconsin	11.41	1.59	Rose	5	0	5
7	7	Stanford	11.38	1.62	Rose	4	0	4
10	8	Oregon	10.02	1.98	Fiesta	3	1	9
5	9	South Carolina	9.59	3.41		4	1	14
12	10	Arkansas	8.69	3.31		4	1	12
19	11	Clemson	9.39	3.61	Orange	5	0	8
13	12	Texas	7.94	4.06		4	0	10
9	13	Texas A&M	8.30	3.70		2	2	25
23	14	Auburn	7.80	4.20		4	1	23
14	15	Virginia Tech	10.10	2.90		4	1	17
21	16	Illinois	9.27	2.73		5	0	16
11	17	Florida	7.77	4.23		4	1	18
16	18	Missouri	7.67	4.33		2	2	--
15	19	Nebraska	8.70	3.30		4	1	15
25	20	Michigan	8.00	4.00		5	0	11
18	21	Florida St	9.02	2.98		2	2	22
--	22	Georgia Tech	7.31	4.69		5	0	13
20	23	Ohio State	8.01	3.99		3	2	--
--	24	Notre Dame	7.93	4.07		3	2	--
--	25	Kansas St	6.92	5.08		4	0	21

This projection yields the following likely BCS Bowl pairups (changes from last week in bold):

BCS Championship Game:	Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Rose Bowl:	Stanford vs. Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl:	Oklahoma State vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl:	LSU vs. Boise State
Orange Bowl:	Clemson vs. West Virginia (#26)

Once again the Orange Bowl projection changes due to upsets, and again Clemson is responsible for most of it. The Tigers beat Virginia Tech and now, holding wins over the two previous favorites, become the favorite themselves. South Florida's loss to Pittsburgh wasn't a big upset but dropped them out of the polls, and now no Big East teams make the projected year-end top 25. The actual conference race is still wide open with Pittsburgh being our favorite, but West Virginia is the highest-rated in our projection so we use them as the Orange Bowl opponent for Clemson.

And again, all of the eligible teams are taken; nine of the top 14 are in BCS bowls, and the five others are crowded out by the two-teams-per-confernence rule. The only team new to the top 14 is Auburn, and they are fifth in line in the SEC. The Big Twelve has four teams in the top 14.

Alabama takes over the top spot from Oklahoma due to beating Florida while the Sooners already had almost full credit for beating Ball State. With South Carolina's loss, Boise State moves up a spot but their future stock went down with TCU's loss. Wisconsin jumped over Stanford due to the Nebraska win but like the announcers mentioned during that game, an undefeated Badger team waits in line behind an undefeated team from the SEC and Big Twelve.

The Big Ten is getting interesting with Illinois and Michigan hoping to challenge Wisconsin for the Rose Bowl slot. Neither is projected as a serious threat but some upset wins could change that. Illinois has had close calls lately and Michigan has to prove it can win on the road. Ohio State's chances dissolved with their loss to Michigan State, but ironically the Spartans aren't in the projected top 25 due to that win. As the new projected winner of the Legends division, they add a championship game with Wisconsin that they're likely to lose, so their overall record suffers. It also helps Nebraska's record, too, as it erases another near-certain loss from the Cornhuskers' slate.

Notre Dame also pokes their head back into the projected final standings. Michigan's continued success helps ease the harm of that loss, and though South Florida lost last week they're 4-1. At 8-4 the Irish wouldn't qualify for a BCS bowl, but at 9-3 they might be under consideration. If they run the table at 10-2, which would include a win over Stanford, they'd be a shoo-in. Their remaining schedule includes three challenges—Air Force, USC, and Navy—all at home, followed by three easier games—Wake Forest, Maryland, and Boston College—with the latter two also at home, before they travel to face the Cardinal.

Week 5 Preview, Odds, and Predictions: Nebraska-Wisconsin clash as Big Ten season starts

This weekend features three games that could be previews of major conference championship games. The most likely is Nebraska vs. Wisconsin, as the Badgers' path looks clear in the "Leaders" while Nebraska is probably the best team in the "Legends" side. In the ACC Clemson takes on Virginia Tech, and in the SEC Alabama faces Florida, and both of those are legitimate predictions for title games, too. In the top intra-conference game, the Big Twelve's Texas A&M battles Arkansas of the SEC.

#18 Texas A&M (2-1) vs. #20 Arkansas (3-1)
Line/spread: Texas A&M by 2 1/2
Strength Power Rating pick: Texas A&M 31-17
Analysis: This game should settle—until the bowl season—the argument over which conference is better this year, the Big Twelve or the SEC. Most people aren't even having that argument but the Big Twelve's pre-conference record puts them at the top, and they can prove it if A&M can beat the Razorbacks. Both teams lost last week and the question is: which team can bounce back? Though Arkansas lost to Alabama by several touchdowns, they'll probably put that game in the past faster than the Aggies can lose the bitter taste of last week's blown lead over Oklahoma State. Just like last year, they lost a close game to the Cowboys, and I think they'll follow the pattern and again lose to Arkansas in the following week.
Final prediction: Arkansas 27, Texas A&M 21

#13 Baylor (3-0) at Kansas State (3-0)
Line/spread: Baylor by 3 1/2
Strength Power Rating pick: Baylor 38-17
Analysis: This is where Robert Griffin's Heisman hopes come to a crashing halt or continue to fly. Seven of the ten teams in the Big Twelve are still undefeated, but that number will fall by at least two teams (see Texas vs. Iowa State below). Baylor hasn't played a road game yet but the Wildcats aren't exactly a juggernaut at home, having defeated Eastern Kentucky just 10-7 in Manhattan on opening week. They also haven't faced a threat like Griffin yet this year. Baylor was good enough to beat TCU, and to us the Strength Power Ratings' projected score looks pretty sound.
Final prediction: Baylor 38, Kansas State 17

#16 Clemson (4-0) at #11 Virginia Tech (4-0)
Line/spread: Virginia Tech by 7
Strength Power Rating pick: Virginia Tech 30-20
Analysis: This is another game that could be a championship game come December. We still favor Florida State making the title game, but Clemson holds a win over the Seminoles so they have a great chance. Meanwhile Virginia Tech looks good in the Coastal as most of those teams are stumbling with the exception of Georgia Tech. The Tigers have definitely faced better competition than the Hokies, with a win over Auburn in addition to FSU. Virginia Tech's offense hasn't been explosive but it's clear that the defense is good, giving up 13, 10, 7, and 10 points in their four games. Clemson will be on the road for the first time and their run of hard-fought wins should come to an end. 
Final prediction: Virginia Tech 20, Clemson 17

Texas (3-0) at Iowa State (3-0)
Line/spread: Texas by 9 1/2
Strength Power Rating pick: Texas 28-21
Analysis: This is the other Big Twelve conference clash of undefeated teams, and here, Iowa State is the surprise at 3-0. The Cyclones upset Iowa in triple overtime, then went on the road and stunned Connecticut 24-20. Like Kansas State, they also nearly lost to a Division I-AA team in the first weekend, and they're also underdogs to a visiting team from Texas. We didn't pick the Longhorns for a major turnaround this year—we see them as a bowl team, not a top 25 team—but the change in quarterback is probably just what they need to get there. Two weeks ago they beat UCLA 49-20 on the road after losing to them 34-12 last season. A similar reversal against the Cyclones would take them from last year's 28-21 loss to a 44-point blowout. That could happen, since it does seem like Iowa State's luck has to run out, and maybe in a big way. But Texas is probably still too shaky on offense to rack up huge points reliably yet. Reversing last year's score matches the Strength Power Rating's prediction, so we'll go with that.
Final prediction: Texas 28, Iowa State 21

#2 Alabama (4-0) at #9 Florida (4-0)
Line/spread: Alabama by 3 1/2
Strength Power Rating pick: Alabama 30-25
Analysis: We realize this game is being played in the Swamp, but this line seems a bit low to us. Florida has been putting up a lot of points—41, 39, 33, and 38, to be exact. But Alabama has given up just 7, 11, 0, and 14 in their four games. With all the talk about LSU having the #1 defense, the Tide D will look at this game as another chance to prove otherwise. The Gator offense has been running like a machine in a series of what amounts to practice sessions; if they can produce against Alabama it will mean a lot. We think this game goes the low-scoring route however.
Final prediction: Alabama 20, Florida 13

#14 Nebraska (4-0) at #6 Wisconsin (4-0)
Line/spread: Wisconsin by 10
Strength Power Rating pick: Wisconsin 40-27
Analysis: The Badgers have been uber-consistent in knocking off four overmatched opponents at home this year by an average of 40 points. Nebraska has been all over the board on defense but is 4-0 and averaging over 40 points on offense per game. Twice the Cornhuskers scored 13-point wins, allowing Fresno State 29 points and Washington 38. For this game, the piling-on of points should end. Even though Nebraska's defense hasn't been great so far, it's a lot better than what Wisconsin has faced. And the Cornhuskers will move the ball a lot slower against the Badgers, so the whole game will be played in molasses compared to what both teams are used to so far. Wisconsin has been so spoon-fed early on that they might have trouble adjusting to playing a real foe, but they're at home again and should come out on top.
Final prediction: Wisconsin 27, Nebraska 24