As usual, all the important games are on at the same time. Our pre-season #1, Oregon, faces #12 LSU in Texas, the same time #6 Boise State takes on #26 Georgia. According to the AP and Coaches' polls the games are even bigger, with the former being #3 vs. #4 and the latter #5 vs. #19. Both games start at 8pm Eastern time.
#1 Oregon "at" #12 LSU
This game is being played in Arlington, Texas, which is technically neutral but should be a bit of an advantage for LSU. They'll need all the help they can get with Jordan Jefferson and Russel Shepard out.
Oregon has its own problems with Cliff Harris out, which limits their return game and takes away a major interception threat.
If the Ducks are going to be remotely as good as last year they should win this game. LSU should be good this year but without a couple of key offensive players aren't near 100%. Maybe Jarrett Lee has gotten better in the last few years; if they can beat Oregon in the opener then they have a leg up on the national championship. The Ducks of course need this one to be national champion contenders, but even with a loss LSU is still alive, as is any team that comes out on top in the SEC.
Pick: Oregon 33, LSU 21
#6 Boise State at #26 Georgia
This game should give an idea of how far Boise State's program has really come in the last six years—since their last trip to Athens when the Bulldogs wiped them off the field 48-13. That was a relative down year for Boise State and this one should be close to their best team ever. Georgia had a major down year in 2010, going 6-7, and while this season should be better they probably aren't nearly as good as the 2005 team or other Bulldog teams of that era.
Given that, then Boise State has to be a big favorite. The oddsmakers have them by a field goal, but if the Broncos want to be national title contenders they'd better win big. Georgia plays in the SEC and is certainly going to lose other games, so there will be comparisons between Boise and those teams. The Broncos have no margin for error in trying to get to the national championship game, so this has to be a convincing win. They beat Oregon by 11 and Virginia Tech by 3 the last two years, so they'll only get a dominant win if the Bulldogs are weak this season.
Georgia is in the same boat as LSU. A win can really propel them and put them in position for a great season, but they still have the entire SEC schedule in front of them. If they can run the table in the SEC they'll be in consideration for the national championship even if they lose today's game.
Pick: Boise State 31, Georgia 23
#27 Tulsa at #5 Oklahoma
Another game, #5 Oklahoma vs. #27 Tulsa, has the potential to be the best of the three. Oklahoma's recent history of struggling in its opener, paired with Tulsa's explosive offense, promised to be a bad combination for the AP#1 Sooners.
In the last ten years Oklahoma has lost to TCU and BYU in its opening game, as well as had scares against UAB and Utah State. Tulsa averaged 41 points per game last season and should be even better this year.
What might ruin the game, however, is the absence of Damaris Johnson, who does everything for Tulsa—receiving, rushing, and returning. Since embezzlement charges have him suspended indefinitely Tulsa probably won't be the same.
If Tulsa had Johnson I might pick another surprise tight game, maybe something resembling the Baylor-TCU game from Friday night. But now the 25 point line looks realistic.
Pick: Oklahoma 46, Tulsa 31
Other games
So the real best game will undoubtedly be one of the less-heralded games in the afternoon. Maybe something like BYU-Mississippi will be an all-time classic—whichever game we miss.
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