Here we project the final 2011 BCS Standings using our "fuzzy logic" win counter, with a power rating designed to work based on partial victories and defeats. We use our pre-season rankings as a starting point and actual results are added each week.
2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - Week 3 (9/17/2011)
| lw | proj | Team | Proj W | Proj L | BCS Bowl | W | L | USA rank |
| 2 | 1 | Oklahoma | 10.44 | 1.56 | BCS Title |
2 | 0 | 1 |
| 1 | 2 | Alabama | 11.43 | 1.57 | BCS Title |
3 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | 3 | Oklahoma St | 9.67 | 2.33 | Fiesta |
3 | 0 | 6 |
| 5 | 4 | LSU | 9.25 | 2.75 | Sugar |
3 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | 5 | Texas A&M | 9.46 | 2.54 | 2 | 0 | 8 | |
| 4 | 6 | Boise St | 10.84 | 1.16 | Sugar |
2 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | 7 | Stanford | 11.30 | 1.70 |
Rose |
3 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | 8 | South Carolina | 10.26 | 2.74 | 3 | 0 | 10 | |
| 11 | 9 | Wisconsin | 11.06 | 1.94 | Rose |
3 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | 10 | Oregon | 9.91 | 2.09 | Fiesta |
2 | 1 | 13 |
| 3 | 11 | Florida St | 10.52 | 2.48 | Orange |
2 | 1 | 14 |
| 12 | 12 | Arkansas | 8.29 | 3.71 | 3 | 0 | 12 | |
| 15 | 13 | Virginia Tech | 10.37 | 2.63 | 3 | 0 | 11 | |
| 18 | 14 | TCU | 9.91 | 2.09 | 2 | 1 | 20 | |
| 16 | 15 | Florida | 7.67 | 4.33 | 3 | 0 | 14 | |
| 17 | 16 | Nebraska | 9.19 | 3.81 | 3 | 0 | 9 | |
| -- | 17 | Texas | 7.59 | 4.41 | 3 | 0 | 18 | |
| 21 | 18 | Missouri | 7.93 | 4.07 | 2 | 1 | -- | |
| 19 | 19 | West Virginia | 9.01 | 2.99 | Orange |
3 | 0 | 16 |
| 13 | 20 | Ohio State | 8.54 | 3.46 | 2 | 1 | -- | |
| 24 | 21 | South Florida | 8.28 | 3.72 | 3 | 0 | 17 | |
| 14 | 22 | Auburn | 7.07 | 4.93 | 2 | 1 | -- | |
| -- | 23 | Clemson | 7.55 | 4.45 | 3 | 0 | 22 | |
| -- | 24 | Illinois | 8.89 | 3.11 | 3 | 0 | -- | |
| -- | 25 | Baylor | 5.79 | 6.21 | 2 | 0 | 19 |
This projection yields the following likely BCS Bowl pairups (changes from last week in bold):
| BCS Championship Game: | Oklahoma vs. Alabama |
| Rose Bowl: | Stanford vs. Wisconsin |
| Fiesta Bowl: | Oklahoma State vs. Oregon |
| Sugar Bowl: | LSU vs. Boise State |
| Orange Bowl: | Florida State vs. West Virginia |
After filling in the automatic selections (Oklahoma and Alabama in the BCS Championship, Oklahoma State in the Fiesta, LSU in the Sugar, Stanford and Wisconsin in the Rose, and FSU in the Orange), the selection order is:
- Fiesta Bowl
- Sugar Bowl
- Orange Bowl
When the Fiesta selects, Texas A&M, South Carolina, and Arkansas will be ineligible due to 2-team conference limits, so they must choose from Boise State, Oregon, Virginia Tech, TCU, and West Virginia. None are ideal for attendance and TV purposes. Probably the Virginia teams are out, leaving one of the western teams in the mix. The Fiesta would probably opt for the major conference team, Oregon, under these circumstances. The Sugar would take Boise over an LSU-West Virginia rematch, leaving the Mountaineers in the Orange.
The big news this week is that the Big Twelve suddenly looks relevant, despite its perhaps imminent demise. Oklahoma State rockets up to #3 and Texas A&M, idle last week, still moves up to #5. Texas leaps in at #17 and Missouri and Baylor also make the top 25. The big reason is Oklahoma's win over Florida State, which put the Sooners as the projected regular-season-end #1; both the Cowboys and Aggies have hopes of upsetting Oklahoma and replacing them at the team, and both control their own destiny to the national title game. They play each other next week, and the winner has the inside track to the Fiesta Bowl.
Florida State's loss to Oklahoma pretty much relegates them to ACC champ—if they can beat Virginia Tech—and nothing more. If Oklahoma loses, the team that beat them—be it Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Texas—will finish ahead of the Seminoles under almost any circumstance. Texas' win over UCLA puts them at 3-0, and while we project Baylor to lose to most of the higher-ranked Big Twelve teams, they have the potential for a high ranking if they win some of those; their USA/Coaches poll ranking puts them in good position if they do so. In all the Big Twelve is 23-2 against outside competition this year, including a surprising 3-0 performance from Iowa State who beat Iowa and Connecticut.
Only our Rose and Fiesta projections changed despite the big games. Stanford takes over as Pac-12 champ from Oregon again; those two will probably flip-flop all year until they meet to decide it on the field. Along with Oklahoma State passing Texas A&M for the Fiesta, last week's choice Ohio State drops out of BCS range with their loss to Miami.
Along with Texas three other teams enter at the bottom of the list. Clemson and Baylor are more due to their USA/Coaches poll ranking, while Illinois won a crucial contest with Arizona State and now looks to be 9-3 or 10-2. They play both Ohio State and Wisconsin at home, so there's hope for a Rose Bowl berth, even if it's not terribly likely. We're still not very sold on Michigan—who faces a very tough 2nd half of season again this year—nor Michigan State from the Big Ten; and Georgia Tech and North Carolina of the ACC are both 3-0 and ranked in the USA poll but have yet to face a real test. They play each other this coming weekend and the winner gets a boost but still has a way to go to challenge Virginia Tech as the Coastal favorite.
Dropping out this week are Michigan State, Mississippi State, Tulsa, and Arizona State. The Spartans were only ranked due to their Coaches poll ranking, as we had them favored to lose to the Irish. The Bulldogs needed to beat LSU to stay among the BCS favorites, and didn't. Tulsa lost the second of their three huge games (the first to Oklahoma, #2 to Oklahoma State, and #3 is this week against Boise State). And Arizona State lost the toss-up game to Illinois; they're still the favorite in the Pac-12 South (the real favorite, USC, is ineligible), so they'll have a shot at upsetting Oregon/Stanford to go to a BCS bowl, but the odds are slim.
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