2011 Projected Final BCS Standings - Week 2: Stanford wins, but slides

Here we project the final 2011 BCS Standings, this time using our "fuzzy logic" win counter, with a power rating designed to work based on partial victories and defeats. We use our pre-season rankings as a starting point and actual results are added each week.

2011 Projected Final BCS Standing - Week 2 (9/11/2011)

lw	proj	Team	Proj W	Proj L	BCS Bowl	W	L	USA rank
1	1	Alabama	11.42	1.58	BCS Title	2	0	2
2	2	Oklahoma	9.81	2.19	BCS Title	1	0	1
3	3	Florida St	11.15	1.85	Orange	2	0	5
5	4	Boise St	10.75	1.25	Sugar	1	0	4
6	5	LSU	8.69	3.31	Sugar	2	0	3
11	6	South Carolina	10.19	2.81		2	0	11
8	7	Oregon	10.84	2.16	Rose	1	1	14
4	8	Stanford	10.25	1.75		2	0	6
9	9	Texas A&M	9.43	2.57	Fiesta	1	0	9
10	10	Oklahoma St	9.34	2.66		2	0	7
7	11	Wisconsin	10.94	2.06	Rose	2	0	8
12	12	Arkansas	8.25	3.75		2	0	13
13	13	Ohio State	9.12	2.88	Fiesta	2	0	16
21	14	Auburn	7.60	4.40		2	0	19
15	15	Virginia Tech	10.28	2.72		2	0	12
18	16	Florida	7.46	4.54		2	0	17
16	17	Nebraska	8.87	4.13		2	0	10
23	18	TCU	9.90	2.10		1	1	23
19	19	West Virginia	8.56	3.44	Orange	2	0	20
14	20	Mississippi St	7.46	4.54		1	1	25
17	21	Missouri	7.88	4.12		1	1	--
22	22	Michigan State	7.52	4.48		2	0	15
--	23	Tulsa	8.96	4.04		1	1	--
--	24	South Florida	8.27	3.73		2	0	22
--	25	Arizona State	7.30	5.70		2	0	18

This projection yields the following likely BCS Bowl pairups:

BCS Championship Game:	Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Rose Bowl:	Oregon vs. Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl:	Texas A&M vs. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl:	LSU vs. Boise State
Orange Bowl:	Florida State vs. West Virginia

The only change this week is that Oregon gets the Rose Bowl bid instead of Stanford, and that's likely to come down to their head-to-head meeting anyway.

But why does Stanford fall from 4th to 8th? Again, like last week, it has to do with Notre Dame's loss. The Irish were the biggest skin on Stanford's schedule aside from Oregon, and now that the Irish are 0-2 and looking more like a 7-5 team than a 10-2 team, the Cardinal won't be able to use them as a late-season boost. Since Oregon finishes ahead of them in the projection we give them the Pac-12 title game, too, which moves them ahead of Stanford. An Ohio State upset loss—like the one that almost happened against Toledo—would really help the Cardinal (or whoever is the 2nd place Pac-12 team) clinch an at-large selection.

The big upward mover is South Carolina, who got a big win at Georgia that solidified their shot to win the SEC East. But unless they can move past LSU—who should finish 2nd in the West—they won't be in a BCS bowl. They don't play LSU, so it will be all about style points, and they'll need a lot to overcome the fact that the Sugar Bowl will want the home team as Alabama's replacement.

Even Auburn is in the BCS mix after their upset win over Mississippi State, but they're in line behind LSU, South Carolina, and Arkansas for the SEC's 2nd BCS bowl spot. Other than the Tigers replacing the Bulldogs the top 14 teams are the same from last week to this week, though shuffled a bit.

Three new teams move into the projection as Penn State, Notre Dame, and Pitt slide out. Tulsa would have to be the #1 non-AQ team to make a BCS bowl, but the Hurricane play Oklahoma State this weekend and face Boise State the week after; win those and they will definitely be in the top 14. Arizona State's win over Missouri helps but they face a tough road in the Pac-12 and would need to upset Stanford or Oregon in the title game to get a berth. South Florida's job is a lot simpler—just win the Big East title and they're in. Right now West Virginia and Pitt are the Bulls' main competition.

The big game this weekend is Oklahoma vs. Florida State. If FSU wins they'll replace Oklahoma in the projected BCS Championship game, relegating Oklahoma to the Fiesta. An Oklahoma win probably leaves things as they are, since FSU is far ahead in the projected ACC race and still goes to the Orange Bowl.