2011 Conference Final Standings: Fuzzy Logic Projections - week two

FBS Conference Projected Standings for 2011 season

Updated for games through week two (Sep. 10, 2011)

We use "fuzzy logic" which allows for partial wins and losses to project the most likely conference winners based on our pre-season rankings. Actual results are integrated as the season progresses.

rank = projected ranking position at end of season
lw = last week's ranking
proj W = projected conference wins at end of season
proj L = projected conference losses at end of season
W = current actual conference wins
L = current actual conference losses

Only conferences that had league play this week are included; see last week's post for other conference projected standings.

ACC
rank	lw	Atlantic division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Florida State	7.10	0.90	0	0
2	3	Maryland	4.43	3.57	1	0
3	4	Clemson	4.36	3.64	0	0
4	2	North Carolina State	4.00	4.00	0	1
5	5	Boston College	3.72	4.28	0	0
6	6	Wake Forest	2.51	5.49	1	0
rank	lw	Coastal division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Virginia Tech	6.17	1.83	0	0
2	2	North Carolina	4.30	3.70	0	0
3	3	Miami FL	4.05	3.95	0	1
4	4	Georgia Tech	2.69	5.31	0	0
5	5	Duke	2.39	5.61	0	0
6	6	Virginia	2.27	5.73	0	0

In just two weeks Maryland has gone from #4 to #2 in the ACC Atlantic. Admittedly there's not much difference in that division between #2 and #5; Florida State is a solid #1 and Wake Forest is still a decided #6 despite upsetting North Carolina State, who falls to #4. With Clemson struggling with Wofford and Boston College being blown out by Central Florida, the Terrapins are looking like the Seminoles' best competition.

Pac-12
rank	lw	North division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Oregon	7.91	1.09	0	0
2	2	Stanford	7.45	1.55	0	0
3	3	California	4.85	4.15	0	0
4	4	Oregon State	4.09	4.91	0	0
5	5	Washington	3.64	5.36	0	0
6	6	Washington State	2.32	6.68	0	0
rank	lw	South division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	USC	5.21	3.79	1	0
2	2	Arizona State	4.77	4.23	0	0
3	3	Utah	4.04	4.96	0	1
4	4	UCLA	4.04	4.96	0	0
5	5	Arizona	3.81	5.19	0	0
6	6	Colorado	1.87	7.13	0	0

The Pac-12 South is looking more and more like Arizona State's to take, as ineligible USC did the Sun Devils a big favor by knocking off Utah. The Utes fall into a virtual tie with UCLA, and we keep them #3 since they play the Bruins at home so they should have the head-to-head win. Arizona State's win over Missouri demonstrated that they will at least live up to some of the potential they had in the off-season, and they remain the favorite to be sacrificial lamb to Oregon or Stanford in the inaugural Pac-12 title game.

SEC
rank	lw	East division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	South Carolina	6.10	1.90	1	0
2	2	Georgia	4.34	3.66	0	1
3	3	Florida	4.17	3.83	0	0
4	4	Kentucky	3.04	4.96	0	0
5	5	Tennessee	2.55	5.45	0	0
6	6	Vanderbilt	1.80	6.20	0	0
rank	lw	West division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Alabama	6.81	1.19	0	0
2	2	LSU	5.16	2.84	0	0
3	3	Arkansas	4.86	3.14	0	0
4	5	Auburn	4.09	3.91	1	0
5	4	Mississippi State	3.66	4.34	0	1
6	6	Mississippi	1.42	6.58	0	0

Let's not get carried away: Georgia didn't lose much when they fell to South Carolina, nor did Auburn become a BCS threat by upsetting Mississippi State. Georgia remains the favorite to finish #2 in the East while the Gamecocks distanced themselves from the rest of the pack. In the West, the Tigers move up one notch, displacing their victims, but they are in no way serious contenders for the West crown, being a full game behind LSU and Arkansas and nearly three games behind Alabama, in our estimation.

CUSA
rank	lw	East division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	2	Central Florida	5.79	2.21	0	0
2	1	Southern Miss	5.25	2.75	0	1
3	3	East Carolina	3.67	4.33	0	0
4	5	Marshall	3.62	4.38	1	0
5	4	UAB	3.54	4.46	0	0
6	6	Memphis	0.76	7.24	0	0
rank	lw	West division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Tulsa	6.80	1.20	1	0
2	2	Houston	5.81	2.19	0	0
3	3	Southern Methodist	4.88	3.12	1	0
4	4	Rice	3.33	4.67	0	0
5	5	Tulane	2.69	5.31	0	1
6	6	UTEP	1.87	6.13	0	1

A big upset and an emphatic non-conference win make it seem very likely that Central Florida, not Southern Miss, will represent the East division in the CUSA final. Southern Miss' loss to Marshall—who moves up to #4 in the division—knocks the Golden Eagles down to #2. And after seeing UCF's 30-3 romp over Boston College, that projection rings true. Tulsa is still the overall favorite and they beat up on projected 5th-place Tulane last week.

MAC
rank	lw	East division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Temple	5.97	2.03	1	0
2	2	Miami OH	4.91	3.09	0	0
3	3	Ohio	4.67	3.33	0	0
4	4	Kent State	4.17	3.83	0	0
5	5	Bowling Green	2.49	5.51	0	0
6	6	Buffalo	1.84	6.16	0	0
7	7	Akron	1.61	6.39	0	1
rank	lw	West division	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Northern Illinois	6.41	1.59	0	0
2	2	Western Michigan	5.77	2.23	0	0
3	3	Toledo	5.15	2.85	0	0
4	4	Central Michigan	4.18	3.82	0	0
5	5	Ball State	3.21	4.79	0	0
6	6	Eastern Michigan	1.61	6.39	0	0

The East's top team dispatched the East's bottom team 41-3, and naturally this caused no shift in the standings. The Owls might be the conference's best team, as Northern Illinois lost a tight game at Kansas and Western Michigan didn't play well at Michigan two weekends ago. Of course, Toledo is an X-factor in the West following their performance at Ohio State, a close 27-22 loss.

rank	lw	Mountain West	proj W	proj L	W	L
1	1	Boise State	6.23	0.77	0	0
2	2	TCU	6.10	0.90	1	0
3	3	Air Force	4.73	2.27	0	1
4	4	San Diego State	4.25	2.75	0	0
5	5	Colorado State	2.29	4.71	1	0
6	6	Wyoming	1.98	5.02	0	0
7	7	UNLV	1.49	5.51	0	0
8	8	New Mexico	0.93	6.07	0	1

No change in the Mountain West standings either after TCU took care of Air Force, 35-19, widening the gap between the conference's marquee teams and 2nd tier.