FBS Conference Projected Standings for 2011 season
Updated for games through September 17, 2011 (week 3)
We use "fuzzy logic" which allows for partial wins and losses to project the most likely conference winners based on our pre-season rankings. Actual results are integrated as the season progresses.
(During the pre-conference season we list only conferences with ranking changes; see previous posts for conferences not included)
rank = projected ranking position at end of season
lw = last week's ranking
proj W = projected conference wins at end of season
proj L = projected conference losses at end of season
W = current actual conference wins
L = current actual conference losses
| ACC | ||||||
|
rank
|
lw
|
Atlantic division |
proj W
|
proj L
|
W | L |
| 1 | 1 | Florida State | 7.10 | 0.90 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 2 | Maryland | 4.43 | 3.57 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | 3 | Clemson | 4.36 | 3.64 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 4 | North Carolina State | 4.00 | 4.00 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | 5 | Boston College | 2.92 | 5.08 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | 6 | Wake Forest | 2.51 | 5.49 | 1 | 0 |
|
rank
|
lw
|
Coastal division |
proj W
|
proj L
|
W | L |
| 1 | 1 | Virginia Tech | 6.17 | 1.83 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 2 | North Carolina | 4.55 | 3.45 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | 3 | Miami FL | 4.05 | 3.95 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | 5 | Duke | 3.19 | 4.81 | 1 | 0 |
| 5 | 4 | Georgia Tech | 2.69 | 5.31 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 6 | Virginia | 2.03 | 5.97 | 0 | 1 |
Duke's upset win over Boston College kept the Eagles in last place in the Atlantic, while the Blue Devils moved up a projected spot with a win under their belt. But Georgia Tech, who falls to #5, hasn't played a conference game yet and at 3-0 and coming off a 66-point effort against Kansas, could be a contender in the Coastal when all is said and done. We'll know a lot more after they play North Carolina next week.
|
SEC
|
||||||
|
rank
|
lw
|
East division |
proj W
|
proj L
|
W | L |
| 1 | 1 | South Carolina | 6.10 | 1.90 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 3 | Florida | 4.38 | 3.62 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | 2 | Georgia | 4.34 | 3.66 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kentucky | 3.04 | 4.96 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 5 | Tennessee | 2.35 | 5.65 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | 6 | Vanderbilt | 2.22 | 5.78 | 1 | 0 |
|
rank
|
lw
|
West division |
proj W
|
proj L
|
W | L |
| 1 | 1 | Alabama | 6.81 | 1.19 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 2 | LSU | 5.71 | 2.29 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | 3 | Arkansas | 4.86 | 3.14 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 4 | Auburn | 4.09 | 3.91 | 1 | 0 |
| 5 | 5 | Mississippi State | 3.11 | 4.89 | 0 | 2 |
| 6 | 6 | Mississippi | 1.00 | 7.00 | 0 | 1 |
Despite losing to Florida, 0-1 Tennessee is projected to finish above 1-0 Vanderbilt, mostly due to being the favorite in their head-to-head contest. The Commodores are 3-0 overall, though, after beating Mississippi (who is expected to be exactly 1-7 in conference play). The only position move comes as Florida inches above Georgia for 2nd place, by such a slim margin that their head-to-head, neutral field game will surely be the deciding factor.
|
CUSA
|
||||||
|
rank
|
lw
|
East division |
proj W
|
proj L
|
W | L |
| 1 | 1 | Central Florida | 5.79 | 2.21 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 2 | Southern Miss | 5.25 | 2.75 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | East Carolina | 3.67 | 4.33 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 4 | Marshall | 3.62 | 4.38 | 1 | 0 |
| 5 | 5 | UAB | 2.82 | 5.18 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | 6 | Memphis | 0.76 | 7.24 | 0 | 0 |
|
rank
|
lw
|
West division |
proj W
|
proj L
|
W | L |
| 1 | 1 | Tulsa | 6.80 | 1.20 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 2 | Houston | 5.81 | 2.19 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 3 | Southern Methodist | 4.88 | 3.12 | 1 | 0 |
| 4 | 5 | Tulane | 3.40 | 4.60 | 1 | 1 |
| 5 | 4 | Rice | 3.33 | 4.67 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 6 | UTEP | 1.87 | 6.13 | 0 | 1 |
Tulane didn't just beat Alabama-Birmingham, they killed them 49-10 and evened their Conference USA record at 1-1. This pushed them past Rice for the #4 spot in the West division, but despite their big win they've got a long way to go to even reach the top half of the division. UAB, meanwhile, remains a solid #5 in the East in front of Memphis.
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