SportsRatings: College Football

2011 Pre-Season Rankings: #1 Oregon Ducks

SportsRatings 2011 College Football Pre-season Top 120

OREGON DUCKS   (Pac-12 #1; North #1)

#1	2010 Results	Record: 12-1	Strength:#1  Success:#3  Overall:#2
		AP #3, USA #3	Bowl: Lost to Auburn 22-19 (BCS Title)
	2011 Outlook	Record: 11-1	Picks: Lindy's #3; Athlon #3; Steele #3
		AP #3, USA #3	Bowl: BCS Championship Game

Seems like everybody—AP, USA, Lindy's, Athlon, and Phil Steele—agrees that Oregon is #3 this year, but we have them #1.

Offense 6 RS	'10 Scoring Offense: #1 (raw) #1 (adjusted)
	'11 Projected Scoring Offense: #1

Oregon's offense can't help but lose some of last year's steam—yet it still ranks #1 in the nation.

Passing Game	'10 Passing Rank: #39 (raw) #30 (adjusted)	'10 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #2
	'11 Projected Passing Rank: #44	'11 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #3

When Jeremiah Masoli transferred from Oregon last year after being suspended, he looked like the missing piece of the puzzle that could take Oregon to the national championship game. Without him they just didn't look quite good enough. But Darren Thomas took over and played every bit as well as Masoli. Thomas threw for 2,881 yards and 30 touchdowns with 9 interceptions, completing 61% of his attempts, all number that are actually better than Masoli's. Those numbers will be hard to repeat despite a year under his belt. Key receivers Jeff Maehl (1,076 yards, 12 touchdowns) and D.J. Davis (470 yards) are gone. The next five are back and all had over 100 yards, including starting tight end David Paulson (418) and WR Lavasier Tuinei (396), but the loss of Maehl's nose for the ball hurts. There will also be more than 10 sacks this year, even if the line stays strong. Plus, perennial backup Nate Costa (286 yards last year) departs, leaving no experience if Thomas is injured. All these factors lead to a necessary downgrade in expectations for the Oregon passing game.

Rushing

'10 Rushing Rank: #4 (raw) #5 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #3

LaMichael James finished 3rd in the Heisman voting last year for his 1,731 yard season where he had 21 touchdowns. He wasn't the only Duck that could run—Kenjon Barner burned defenses for 551 yards a mid-season injury. QB Thomas had 486 yards—not quite what Masoli did, but good enough. They do lose Remene Alston's 356 yards and QB Costa's 138, but WR Josh Huff added 214. It seems that on Oregon everyone can and will run the ball. The offensive line is bound to be a bit weaker as three starters are gone—Jordan Holmes, Bo Thran, and C.E. Kaiser. Returning starters Mark Asper and Carson York form the basis of the new line with half-time starter Darrion Weems. James and Barner are an incredible 1-2 punch and Thomas adds a great, built-in wildcat ability. Last year's production will be hard to match and even as they go up to #3 our projection for yardage declines, but only slightly.

Defense 5 RS	'10 Scoring Defense: #12 (raw) #6 (adjusted)	'10 sacks: #16	'10 picks: #6
	'11 Projected Scoring Defense: #9	'11 sacks: #40	'11 picks: #5
'10 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #25    Pass Defense  per-game: #41   Per-attempt: #1

The losses to the Duck defensive line are big: Kenny Rowe (7 sacks, 9.5 tackles for loss), Brandon Bair (13 tackles for loss, 8 pass breakups), and Zac Clark (4 sacks + 5.5 tackles for loss). Terrell Turner returns for his senior year. At linebacker Josh Kaddu is the only one back as Spencer Paysinger and #1 tackler Casey Matthews depart. With only 2 out of the front seven returning, last year's solid pass rush will be a thing of the past and the top 25 rush defense might fall to around average. The secondary will be one of the best in the country, however; it already was last season, and three starters are back: John Boyett (9 pass breakups, 5 interceptions), Eddie Pleasant, and Cliff Harris (17 pass breakups, 6 interceptions). The defense loses a lot but the bulk of the 2nd and 3rd string return so it will still be very good; the issue is whether teams will be able to run on the Ducks and just ignore the pass option.

Kicking Game:  Oregon has their punter, Jackson Rice (42.3 yard average), back along with kicker Rob Beard, who made 10 of 13 field goals.
Return Game:  Oregon's return game was the best in the nation. Cliff Harris averaged a whopping 18.8 yards per return, aided by an incredible four touchdown returns and Kenyon Barner had another, giving Oregon five on the year. On kickoffs, Josh Huff averaged an impressive but much more standard 24.7 yards.

Coaching/Recruiting      2011 Recruiting Rank: #13          2010 Recruiting Rank: #11
Oregon has their 2nd in a row near-top-ten class, though the first one should be docked for Lache Seastrunk who transferred to Baylor. Seastrunk's recruitment has become an issue as head coach Chip Kelly authorized payment to a pseudo-agent of Seastrunks, ostensibly in return for scouting information. But on to this year's class: the top recruit—as touted based on high school play—is certainly De'Anthony Thomas, a cornerback/running back from Los Angeles. After spring ball, that honor might go to tight end Colt Lyerla.

2010 Recap 

Strictly speaking, Oregon only four bowl teams last year. But add in 6-6 Arizona State and 8-5 USC, and half the team's schedule is very tough. And that doesn't even count the road win at Cal, one of the toughest places to play last season. And Oregon State, who had the misfortune of playing Oregon, Stanford, TCU, and Boise State—all arguably top five teams—in the same year.

The truth is, the Pac-10 was one of the best conferences last year. Oregon's dominant wins over Tennessee, USC, Washington, and particularly Stanford, showed how good the team was. The offense was off the charts much of the time and ranks as one of the all-time best scoring offenses. The defense ranged from average to very good with no terrible lapses despite the demands put on it by a high-powered, fast-scoring offense.

For almost all of the year, Oregon was the best team in the nation. Auburn wasn't close until nearly the end of the regular season, and by the time they played, the Tigers were a field goal better than the Ducks. The trouble with Oregon was that they didn't improve over the course of the year, while Auburn did by leaps and bounds.

Oregon 2011 schedule & forecast
9/3	Sat	@	LSU	77%	W
9/10	Sat	vs.	Nevada	95%	W
9/17	Sat	vs.	Missouri State	100%	W
9/24	Sat	@	*Arizona	89%	W
10/6	Thu	vs.	*California	89%	W
10/15	Sat	vs.	*Arizona State	93%	W
10/22	Sat	@	*Colorado	97%	W
10/29	Sat	vs.	*Washington St.	98%	W
11/5	Sat	@	*Washington	90%	W
11/12	Sat	@	*Stanford	52%	W
11/19	Sat	vs.	*USC	90%	W
11/26	Sat	vs.	*Oregon State	93%	W
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 11-1  Bowl eligible: 99.9%

 

2011 Outlook  The first game is one of the most important games of the year for the Ducks, and Cliff Barnes will be unavailable; his interception threat, and punt return threat, is tangible and the loss is bad news for Oregon. But LSU is having personnel problems of their own, too, so it should all even out.

Assuming the Ducks roll through the rest of their schedule until November, we find them against Stanford in a game that's essentially a semi-final for the national championship (as it was last year, in retrospect). The Ducks have to travel to Stanford which really puts the outcome in doubt. We have them winning—barely—as we have them winning all their other games and going 12-0. The Pac-12 title game would be a formality, probably against ASU since USC isn't eligible. Other conferences have had powerful contenders who have stumbled in conference title games in the past, however.

But if they make it though that the Ducks will be in the BCS championship game again. And they'll probably face another SEC team: Alabama. This time it would be in New Orleans, giving the Tide some measure of a home field advantage. And even more than last time, Oregon's offensive and defensive lines would be put to the test. Even though they're our #1 team by some margin, they just don't match up well against Alabama, and they'd have the same problems that they did against Auburn. Chip Kelly would need to come up with a game plan to mitigate some of these issues for Oregon to win, but since they're our #1 team we look for Oregon to break the SEC's reign of dominance and become national champs for the 2011 season.

2011 Pre-Season Rankings: #2 Stanford Cardinal

SportsRatings 2011 College Football Pre-season Top 120

STANFORD CARDINAL   (Pac-12 #2; North #2)

#2	2010 Results	Record: 12-1	Strength:#2  Success:#6  Overall:#4
		AP #4, USA #4	Bowl: Beat Virginia Tech 40-12 (Orange)
	2011 Outlook	Record: 10-2	Picks: Lindy's #8; Athlon #13; Steele #14
		AP #7, USA #6	Bowl: Rose Bowl (eligibility odds: 99.8%)

Stanford's season once again comes down to a showdown with the Ducks.

Offense 5 RS	'10 Scoring Offense: #9 (raw) #2 (adjusted)
	'11 Projected Scoring Offense: #3

The return of Andrew Luck—who could have been the overall #1 draft pick—keeps the Stanford offense one of the nation's best.

Passing Game	'10 Passing Rank: #29 (raw) #27 (adjusted)	'10 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #1
	'11 Projected Passing Rank: #31	'11 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #1

Andrew Luck is back! Some people think that alone is going to make Stanford a great team this year. While that's not true, it's not a bad start. Luck threw for 3,338 yards and 32 touchdowns last year with just 8 interceptions while completing 71% of his attempts. Those are Heisman-worthy numbers but last year was Cam's year. Maybe this year is Luck's? He's going to have to overcome the loss of Stanford's two top receivers, Doug Baldwin (857 yards, 9 touchdowns) and Ryan Whalen (439 yards). The next four are back: tight end Coby Fleener (434), Chris Owusu (396), RB Stepfan Taylor (266), and Griff Whalen (249). The offensive line gave such unreal protection to Luck (6 sacks all year) that even a sharp downgrade keeps them at #1. As only two starters are back that's probably unrealistic. In any case, Luck's numbers probably won't beat last year's which may hurt his Heisman chances, but he'll have more hype from the start and probably begins as the front-runner.

Rushing

'10 Rushing Rank: #17 (raw) #15 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #11

Stepfan Taylor rushed for 1,137 yards and 15 touchdowns last year and he returns, insuring a solid running game from the Cardinal. His backups, Anthony Wilkerson (408 yards) and Tyler Gaffney (255) are back as well. Three more players had over 100 rushing yards and two return. So the backfield is loaded, and that doesn't even count QB Luck, who rushed for 453 yards with an insane 8.2 yard average. Take away sack yardage and he had over 10 yards per carry—which is not surprising as he's undoubtedly a tough customer. The offensive line loses Chase Beeler, Andrew Phillips, and Derek Hall, and won't pave the way quite as well as last year. David DeCastro and Jonathan Martin are back. The returning talent in the backfield is impressive but the losses on the line prevent them from projecting into our top ten.

Defense 6 RS	'10 Scoring Defense: #10 (raw) #2 (adjusted)	'10 sacks: #8	'10 picks: #3
	'11 Projected Scoring Defense: #2	'11 sacks: #6	'11 picks: #7
'10 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #14    Pass Defense  per-game: #27   Per-attempt: #15

Stanford's defense was great across the board in 2010. The rushing defense could suffer but everything else will be strong.

The defensive line takes the biggest hit as two of the three starters depart, including Sione Fua (4.5 sacks). Matthew Masifilo (4 sacks) returns. At linebacker two of the four starters are back, #1 tackler Shayne Skov and #2 Chase Thomas, both of whom had 7.5 sacks; they lose Thomas Keiser (4.5 sacks) and two-way threat Owen Marecic (LB/FB). The secondary loses Richard Sherman who had 9 pass breakups and 4 interceptions, but three senior starters are back: Johnson Bademosi, Delano Howell (5 interceptions), and Michael Thomas. There is some concern up front but overall the top four tacklers are back and Stanford's defense could be just as good as last year, or very close.

Kicking Game:  Punter Daniel Zychlinski averaged 41.8 yards per punt and he's back, but he'll have to compete with David Green who punted the final two games (43.0 average). Nate Whitaker connected on 17 of 19 field goals and he's gone. Either freshman Jordan Williamson or Nate's younger brother Eric will take over.
Return Game:  Drew Terrell averaged a solid 12.2 yards per punt return while Chris Owusu had 24.3 yards per kickoff. Both are back.

Coaching/Recruiting      2011 Recruiting Rank: #25          2010 Recruiting Rank: #23
There is some concern among fans and watchers of Stanford about Jim Harbaugh leaving, and how it will affect the team. That should be a concern, and would be a bigger one if the new coach were someone unfamiliar with the team. But David Shaw has been the offensive coordinator at Stanford for years, so he's worked with Andrew Luck and no one will have to learn a new system. Recruiting didn't even suffer during the transition year as it often does. The ranking falls about in the middle of the Pac-10 conference, as did last year's.

2010 Recap 

Stanford's schedule wasn't exactly a killer in 2010; they didn't beat any top 25 teams during the regular season and beat only three bowl teams during that time. But the Pac-10 was a lot tougher than some of the teams' records. The trouble is, there was a big dropoff after Oregon and Stanford themselves.

So Stanford can only claim Notre Dame, Washington, and Arizona as bowl-team victims. Southern Cal was 8-5 and ineligible, while Arizona State went 6-6 with two FCS wins. Cal and Oregon State suffered the fate of playing in a parity-filled conference and having a killer non-conference schedule and both were 5-7.

But Stanford dominated almost all of their opponents. Near the end, when they destroyed Washington, Arizona, Cal, and Oregon State, they were particularly unstoppable. Their defense during those last five games was as good as any in the nation. And their only loss was to Oregon. By beating Virginia Tech convincingly in the Orange Bowl, they put aside any concerns that they hadn't beaten a top ten team.

Stanford 2011 schedule & forecast
9/3	Sat	vs.	San Jose State	99%	W
9/10	Sat	@	Duke	97%	W
9/17	Sat	@	*Arizona	84%	W
10/1	Sat	vs.	*UCLA	92%	W
10/8	Sat	vs.	*Colorado	98%	W
10/15	Sat	@	*Washington St.	93%	W
10/22	Sat	vs.	*Washington	92%	W
10/29	Sat	@	*USC	74%	W
11/5	Sat	@	*Oregon State	80%	W
11/12	Sat	vs.	*Oregon	48%	L
11/19	Sat	vs.	*California	84%	W
11/26	Sat	vs.	Notre Dame	80%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 10-2  Bowl eligible: 99.8%

 

2011 Outlook 

Stanford looks like they did last year—a very strong team capable of dominating games. They could sail through their schedule until they meet Oregon—at home this time—and if they win that, they'd be in the Pac-12 title game and then on to the national championship.

But even at home they might not be able to beat the Ducks, our #1 team for this year, so we have the Cardinal 11-1 this season. Since the game is played at Stanford it gives them a fighting chance. But Stanford also has back-to-back road games at USC and Oregon State that could test them. And a season final vs. Notre Dame that could be trouble—but again, they get that one at home.

The cumulative odds say that 10-2 is a reasonable guess for this year's outcome, with 11+ wins about a 43% chance and 12-0 about 12% or 1 in 8. Stanford is our #2 team and they face the #1 in a game that's essentially a tossup, so they have a very good chance of being in the national title game against Alabama, another game that would be very much a tossup. More likely though, it's off to the Rose Bowl.

2011 Pre-Season Rankings: #3 Alabama Crimson Tide

SportsRatings 2011 College Football Pre-season Top 120

ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE   (SEC #1; West #1)

#3	2010 Results	Record: 10-3	Strength:#4  Success:#15  Overall:#6
		AP #10, USA #11	Bowl: Beat Mich. St. 49-7 (Capital One)
	2011 Outlook	Record: 11-1	Picks: Lindy's #2; Athlon #1; Steele #1
		AP #2, USA #2	Bowl: BCS Championship Game

Alabama won the national title two years ago. Their bid for a repeat last year fell quite a bit short. With a powerful defense and a remodeled but still good offense, they've got a great shot at it.

Offense 7 RS	'10 Scoring Offense: #18 (raw) #12 (adjusted)
	'11 Projected Scoring Offense: #25

Why is the Tide offense downgraded? Because they lose a big playmaker at receiver and a great manager at quarterback. Oh, and the guy who won the Heisman Trophy, he's gone too.

Passing Game	'10 Passing Rank: #27 (raw) #25 (adjusted)	'10 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #95
	'11 Projected Passing Rank: #64	'11 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #74

Greg McElroy was the ultimate game management quarterback. He wasn't flashy—sometimes you forgot he was there—but he got the job done with a safety-first approach, last year completing 71% of his passes and throwing just 5 interceptions. He nearly had 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns, and his departure likely leaves the offense in the hands of A.J. McCarron, who had 389 yards (3 TD, 0 int) last year. A sophomore, it will take him a while to work up to McElroy's level, and he won't have receiver Julio Jones to throw to. Jones left for the NFL after racking up 1,133 yards last year and scoring seven touchdowns. The new QB will have Marquis Maze (#2 w/557), Darius Hanks (#3, 456), and starting tight end Michael Williams (100 yards) as targets, as well as RB Trent Richardson (266). They have/do not have ex-Ohio State receiver Duron Carter (we will cross out one or the other when his status is finally finalized). Surprisingly, QB protection was a big problem for the Tide last year as they allowed 32 sacks, and while that situation should improve it still won't be ideal for the new quarterback. Losing McElroy and Jones means the passing game is going through a rebuilding phase; there will be fewer passing yards and undoubtedly more interceptions.

Rushing

'10 Rushing Rank: #30 (raw) #21 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #20

2009 Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram moves on after a fantastic Tide career. Last season he was injured early and had his moments but had about half (875) of what he did his Heisman year. Trent Richardson finished with 700 yards and often looks just as good as Ingram. Ingram left for the NFL, but Richardson is back with Eddie Lacy (406) while Demetrius Goode (140) transferred. The offensive line will be solid with four starters back. James Carpenter is gone but William Vlachos (senior) joins juniors Barrett Jones and Chance Warmack and sophomore D.J. Fluker. The rushing production should be about the same as last year and Richardson ought to shine, perhaps making up for all of Ingram's production himself. He might have to as many newcomers have been injured or transferred out.

Defense 9 RS	'10 Scoring Defense: #3 (raw) #1 (adjusted)	'10 sacks: #46	'10 picks: #14
	'11 Projected Scoring Defense: #1	'11 sacks: #29	'11 picks: #2
'10 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #7    Pass Defense  per-game: #11   Per-attempt: #9

Alabama had the #1 scoring defense in college football in 2009. They returned only 2 starters, but by the end of the 2010 season, they had the #1 scoring defense in college football. This time they lose only 2 starters. Our bet is that they have the #1 scoring defense in college football in 2011.

Marcell Dareus is one of the few starters lost, but he's important, having 4.5 sacks, 6.5 tackles for loss, 4 pass breakups, and 10 quarterback hurries last season. The defensive front three has Josh Chapman and half-time starter Damion Square back but may be weaker without Dareus. The linebacking corps should pick up the slack, however. They lose Chavis Williams but Dont'a Hightower and Courtney Upshaw (7 sacks) are back, along with half-time starter Nico Johnson and part-time starters C.J. Mosley (10 pass breakups) and Jerrell Harris. The secondary has all four starters back: corners Dre Kirkpatrick  and Dee Milliner are joined by safeties Mark Barron (#1 tackler) and Robert Lester (8 interceptions!). The pass defense should be great as it was already in the top ten and the pass rush should be stronger. Overall the defense is much better but obviously that can't be reflected in the projected ranking.

Kicking Game:  Punter Cody Mandell returns for his sophomore year after averaging just 39.2 yards per punt, though the net (36.2) was pretty good considering. Kickers Jeremy Shelley and Cade Foster are back, too; Shelley hit 12 of 16 field goals and Foster 7 of 9.
Return Game:  Marquis Maze (punts, 12.7 average) and Trent Richardson (kickoffs, 26.4 average, 1 touchdown) handled fielding chores last year, but as Maze becomes the primary receiver and Richardson the primary running back, the Tide might go with WR Darius Hanks and a backup running back for the unit. The RB was going to be recruit Demetrius Hart but he's out for the year with a torn ACL.

Coaching/Recruiting      2011 Recruiting Rank: #3          2010 Recruiting Rank: #8
Another year, another great recruiting class at Alabama for head coach Nick Saban. The two superstars of the class are Hasean Clinton-Dix, a defensive back from Orlando and Cyrus Kouandjio, an offensive lineman from Maryland. Some other big names won't be seen on the field, at least this year. Among them: Running back Dee Hart, who torn his ACL; WR Danny Woodson, who might grayshirt now that Duron Carter (Chris Carter's son) who played at Ohio State has arrived; and Aaron Douglas, a juco transfer who originally played for Tennessee and died of a drug overdose this summer.

2010 Recap 

Alabama played like a national champion in their first five games, particularly on defense. They survived a big challenge from Arkansas (24-20) but were tripped up by South Carolina 35-21. They played just as poorly in beating Ole Miss 23-10 the next week but came back strong against Tennessee, 41-10.

They still had a great chance at the national title, since they were on a collision course with Auburn. But they played another sloppy, less-than-enthusiastic game against LSU and lost 24-21. A BCS bowl still appeared likely if they won out, and they dominated Mississippi State, then Georgia State, then Auburn—for the first half. Leading 24-0 they got sloppy again; they should have had a few more touchdowns by halftime when they led 24-7. Cam Newton led the comeback and Alabama finished 9-3. Perhaps trying to forget last season and set a tone for 2011, they played with enthusiasm and crushed Michigan State 49-7.

Alabama 2011 schedule & forecast
9/3	Sat	vs.	Kent State	99%	W
9/10	Sat	@	Penn State	88%	W
9/17	Sat	vs.	North Texas	99%	W
9/24	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	82%	W
10/1	Sat	@	*Florida	77%	W
10/8	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	98%	W
10/15	Sat	@	*Mississippi	96%	W
10/22	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	95%	W
11/5	Sat	vs.	*LSU	79%	W
11/12	Sat	@	*Mississippi St.	76%	W
11/19	Sat	vs.	Georgia Southern	99%	W
11/26	Sat	@	*Auburn	77%	W
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 11-1  Bowl eligible: 99.9%

 

2011 Outlook  Alabama appears to be on course for another appearance in the BCS Championship Game.

Not only do we pick them as the favorite in each game—implying a 12-0 record is possible—but they're no less than a 75% favorite in every game. Half of their games are at the 95% level or higher, leaving only Penn State, Arkansas, Florida, LSU, Mississippi State, and Auburn to worry about. The cumulative projection gives them an expected 11-1 record with a strong 22% chance of going undefeated.

Which regular season game are they most likely to be upset in? I'd look at the road game at Mississippi State. The Bulldogs will be good but by then they'll have a few losses, and Alabama will be coming off a big win over LSU most likely. They might even be thinking ahead already to the Auburn game. The Mississippi State game would be the time a team could have a letdown, or not be totally focused.

If they do go undefeated, or probably even if they go 11-1, they'll be in the SEC Championship Game most likely against South Carolina, and after that the BCS Championship Game. There they will face one of the top two teams in our rankings, and according to our rankings, they would lose and finish #2 in the nation. Or, like sometimes happens to the runner-up, #3.

2011 Pre-Season Rankings: #5 Oklahoma Sooners

SportsRatings 2011 College Football Pre-season Top 120

OKLAHOMA SOONERS   (Big Twelve #1)

#5	2010 Results	Record: 12-2	Strength:#8  Success:#5  Overall:#8
		AP #6, USA #6	Bowl: Beat UConn 48-20 (Fiesta)
	2011 Outlook	Record: 10-2	Picks: Lindy's #1; Athlon #2; Steele #2
		AP #1, USA #1	Bowl: Fiesta (eligibility odds: 99.9%)

The Sooners are flying high in the polls, looking to get that elusive 2nd national championship for coach Bob Stoops.

Offense 8 RS	'10 Scoring Offense: #14 (raw) #7 (adjusted)
	'11 Projected Scoring Offense: #6

Don't expect the Oklahoma offense to be better than it was last year, despite all the returning starters. Just expect more of the same—that's all that's needed anyway.

Passing Game	'10 Passing Rank: #3 (raw) #2 (adjusted)	'10 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #38
	'11 Projected Passing Rank: #2	'11 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #26

Landry Jones had the big year many were expecting last season, passing for 4,718 yards and 38 touchdowns. This year he'll pass Sam Bradford on Oklahoma's all-time yardage list. His efficiency is good for a high-volume QB, too, as he completed 66% and had a reasonable 12 interceptions. He'll have to bring the INTs down to single digits if he wants to be a real Heisman candidate, though, as he risks being tabbed a "system" quarterback otherwise. It's also an open question as to how much he owes his success to receiver Ryan Broyles' presence. Broyles, a potential Heisman candidate himself, had 1,622 receiving yards and caught 14 touchdown passes. He's back with #2 Kenny Stills (786 yards) and tight end James Hanna (#5 w/292, 7 TDs). They lose RB DeMarco Murray and WR Cameron Kenny who combined for 9 TDs and over 1,100 yards, so there is some production to be made up. The offensive line did a solid job protecting Jones last year and should be even more effective this year. Look for another big year from Jones and co., whether or not he surpasses last season's totals.

Rushing

'10 Rushing Rank: #83 (raw) #83 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #86

The biggest loss to Oklahoma's offense is obviously DeMarco Murray. Not just for his 1,214 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns, but his 594 receiving yards made him a versatile threat. Mossis Madu (254 yards last year) is also gone, leaving Roy Finch (398) the probable starter, though freshman Brandon Williams may compete. The offensive line is stronger this year with four starters returning. Erik Mensik is gone but senior Donald Stephenson, juniors Ben Habern and Tyler Evans, and soph Gabe Ikard are back. Despite the loss of the big guy, Oklahoma's team ground production wasn't huge and with a stronger line they should just about match it this season.

Defense 7 RS	'10 Scoring Defense: #33 (raw) #22 (adjusted)	'10 sacks: #10	'10 picks: #12
	'11 Projected Scoring Defense: #19	'11 sacks: #14	'11 picks: #16
'10 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #36    Pass Defense  per-game: #20   Per-attempt: #7

The Sooners had some huge losses on defense but the overall performance should be up this year. On the defensive line they lose Jeremy Beal who had 8.5 sacks, another 10.5 tackles for loss, and 7 pass breakups. They also lose half-time starter Adrian Taylor, but return Stacy McGee and Frank Alexander who had 7 sacks. A number of part-time starters such as Ronnell Lewis (still questionable academically) and Casey Walker are back, too. At linebacker the death of Austin Box (overdosed in May) shocked the team and they'll be wearing helmet decals to honor him and taking turns wearing his jersey number on defense. #1 tackler Travis Lewis (109 tackles) is back with Tony Jefferson who started at nickel back last season and may float between LB and SS this year. Tom Wort is another who started more than 1/2 time. Box started less than 1/2 time last year and even in his absence this is one of the best linebacker groups in the country. The secondary loses the team's #2 and #3 tacklers, safeties Johnathan Nelson and Quinton Carter (13 pass breakups and 6 interceptions combined), but Demontre Hurst (11 pass breakups) is back with Jamell Fleming (14 pass breakups, 5 interceptions) who had academic issues but they were cleared up and he was restored to the team.

Kicking Game:  Punter Tress Way (44.0 average) is back, as is kicker Jimmy Stevens who made 19 of 23 field goal attempts. Patrick O'Hara (4 of 6 FG last year) is around as insurance in case Stevens is injured or slumps.
Return Game:  Ryan Broyles returned punts to the tune of 7.9 yards per attempt and he's back. Running back tandem Murray and Madu were the team's kickoff returners, averaging 28 and 24 yards apiece. As they depart sophomore Trey Franks, another running back, is set to take over.

Coaching/Recruiting      2011 Recruiting Rank: #30          2010 Recruiting Rank: #2
Bob Stoops hit paydirt in his second year at Oklahoma and has been trying to replicate the trick every year since. He's gotten close regularly without making it there, losing in the BCS title game in 2003, 2004, and 2008. This year the expectations are high again. Last year's recruiting class was one of the best in the country, and this year's group was still solidly in the top 25. That is, until Trey Metoyer, one of the nation's top receiver recruits, failed to qualify. Another consensus blue chip, defensive tackle Jordan Wade, failed to make the grade, too. The best in class is Brandon Williams, a running back who has cracked the 2-deep already.

2010 Recap 

With high pre-season rankings, Oklahoma kicked off the season with a performance that had everyone shaking their heads as they almost lost to lowly Utah State at home, winning just 31-24. They made that game look like a fluke by beating FSU 47-17 the next week. Surely the Utah State game was due to "looking ahead"? But the next three games weren't that great as they won by a total of 13 points. The competition was at least respectable, and the 52-0 Iowa State blowout made them 6-0.

But Oklahoma fell to Missouri 36-27 and then Texas A&M 33-19, putting them out of the national title picture. They still had the Big 12 title to fight for, and over the last four games played their most consistent football, beating four bowl teams and two straight top 25 teams at the end. They went to the Fiesta Bowl and held off a pesky UConn team, trouncing them 48-20.

Oklahoma 2011 schedule & forecast
9/3	Sat	vs.	Tulsa	83%	W
9/17	Sat	@	Florida State	37%	L
9/24	Sat	vs.	*Missouri	74%	W
10/1	Sat	vs.	Ball State	99%	W
10/8	Sat	N	*Texas	84%	W
10/15	Sat	@	*Kansas	98%	W
10/22	Sat	vs.	*Texas Tech	95%	W
10/29	Sat	@	*Kansas State	87%	W
11/5	Sat	vs.	*Texas A&M	67%	W
11/12	Sat	vs.	*Iowa State	96%	W
11/19	Sat	@	*Baylor	91%	W
11/26	Sat	@	*Oklahoma State	53%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 10-2  Bowl eligible: 99.9%

 

2011 Outlook  The pivotal game in Oklahoma's national championship quest is on September 17 when they invade Tallahassee to take on the Seminoles. They have two weeks to prepare and they'll need it, as linebacker Travis Lewis will be out the game. They also need the two week to make sure they don't overlook Tulsa in game one; the Sooners have opened poorly in many of recent years. In 2005 they lost to then-unheralded Texas Christian 17-10; in 2006 they barely beat Alabama-Birmingham, 24-17; in 2009 they were upset by BYU 14-13; and last year they edged Utah State 31-24. The odds of the Sooners having another first-game fiasco went down as Tulsa's all-purpose yardage king Damaris Johnson has been suspended for the game.

After the FSU game we don't see too many problems. Missouri is at home; Texas is on the usual neutral field and the Longhorns, though better, aren't at Oklahoma's level yet; Texas A&M is tough but again, at home. Then, the final game at Oklahoma State is another big challenge. It might be for the Big Twelve title, and it might be for entry into the BCS championship game.

The cumulative odds say 10-2, conservative as they are. From our vantage point FSU and OK State are the only outcomes in danger for the Sooners, but Oklahoma has a way of looking dominant and unbeatable, then getting upset the next week. We're guessing there is no national title for the Sooners this season, but they will probably win the Big Twelve and go back to the Fiesta Bowl, where they might be in a rematch with Boise State, or West Virginia.

2011 Pre-Season Rankings: #4 Florida State Seminoles

SportsRatings 2011 College Football Pre-season Top 120

FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES   (ACC #1; Atlantic #1)

#4	2010 Results	Record: 10-4	Strength:#19  Success:#19  Overall:#18
		AP #17, USA #16	Bowl: Beat S. Carolina 26-17 (Chik-fil-A)
	2011 Outlook	Record: 10-2	Picks: Lindy's #5; Athlon #4; Steele #6
		AP #6, USA #5	Bowl: Orange (eligibility odds: 99.9%)

Florida State wants a shot at the national title, and their schedule gives them the means to attain it.

Offense 7 RS	'10 Scoring Offense: #33 (raw) #20 (adjusted)
	'11 Projected Scoring Offense: #11

Christian Ponder is gone but the team has a deep stable of receivers and running backs.

Passing Game	'10 Passing Rank: #68 (raw) #72 (adjusted)	'10 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #54
	'11 Projected Passing Rank: #75	'11 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #57

After three years Christian Ponder (2,044 yards, 20 TDs last season) is no longer the FSU starting quarterback, so it's going to be a bit of a change this year. Luckily E.J. Manuel has been seeing a lot of action the last few years. In 2010 he threw for 861 yards, completing 70% of his attempts, with 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Making things a lot easier, the top receivers are almost all back. The top eight receivers, all of whom caught 10+ passes, were back until Taiwan Easterling (#3 with 551 yards) signed with the Chicago Cubs. Still, Bert Reed (614), Willie Haulstead (587), Rodney Smith (448), and tight end Beau Reliford (198) are back among others. Manuel should be able to replicate last year's production since Ponder was injured much of last season.

Rushing

'10 Rushing Rank: #39 (raw) #23 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #19

FSU had another running back-by-committee year in '10, but Chris Thompson almost broke out to become the star with 845 yards. Ty Jones and Jermaine Thomas were #2 and #3 with a combined 1,017. The biggest loss to the ground game is QB Ponder who had 180 net, while QB Manuel had 170 and double Ponder's average. The offensive line loses two 4-year starters in Ryan McMahon and Rodney Hudson, but with Zebrie Sanders, Andrew Datko, half-time starter David Spurlock (all seniors) and part-time starters (both sophs) Bryan Stork and Henry Orelus, the line is still loaded with experience. There's never any telling who will get the carries year to year but all three backs are good and with Manuel at QB the ground game is set to improve.

Defense 8 RS	'10 Scoring Defense: #20 (raw) #19 (adjusted)	'10 sacks: #3	'10 picks: #43
	'11 Projected Scoring Defense: #13	'11 sacks: #2	'11 picks: #20
'10 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #33    Pass Defense  per-game: #57   Per-attempt: #34

Florida State had 48 sacks last year, which finished #3 per-game after accounting for their opponents. The pass rush will probably be even stronger this year. Markus White (8 sacks) departs, but Brandon Jenkins (13.5 sacks last year) returns with Jacobbi McDaniel and half-time starters Everett Dawkins and Anthony McCloud (5 sacks between the three). Linebacker Nigel Bradham had 5 sacks himself, and he returns while Mister Alexander and Kendall Smith depart. The secondary is rock-solid with Xavier Rhodes (12 pass breakups, 4 interceptions) and Greg Reid (3 int) at cornerback and Terrance Parks and Nick Moody at safety. Backup corner Mike Harris also had 4 interceptions. Both the rushing and passing defense should be in or near the top 25 this year as the defense improves.

Kicking Game:  Punter Shawn Powell and kicker Dustin Hopkins both return. Powell had a strong 44.3 average while Hopkins made 22 of 28 field goals last year.
Return Game:  Cornerback Greg Reid was the Noles main return man last year, averaging 10.1 yards per punt return (with one touchdown) and 23.9 yards per kickoff return. He'll do it again in 2011.

Coaching/Recruiting      2011 Recruiting Rank: #1          2010 Recruiting Rank: #6
Jimbo Fisher's first class didn't show the decline normally inherent in a 1st year coach's recruiting, probably because Fisher had been associated with FSU for so long and the recruits in Bowden's last year all knew him. This year's class even gets the 2nd-coaching-year boost, and is our #1 class for 2011. Nearly 30 signees, and half of them blue-chip quality. Juco Jacob Fahrenkrug is already listed in the starting lineup (offensive line) on defense Cornellius "Tank" Carradine is in the D-line 2-deep. Another defensive standout, Karlos Williams, was one of the most sought after recruits from the state of Florida, as was James Wilder, who could play running back, defensive end, or linebacker. These two back-to-back solid classes are what pushes FSU into the top five.

2010 Recap 

Florida State had high hopes at certain points during the 2010 season. They lost an early game (crushed by Oklahoma 47-17) but found renewed hope after a big win (destroying Miami on the road 45-17). Two more losses left them 6-3, but they came back big and won three straight, beating Clemson, Maryland, and Florida. FSU fell to Virginia Tech in the ACC title game and instead of the Orange Bowl went to the Chik-fil-A Bowl where they subdued South Carolina, 26-17.

FSU 2011 schedule & forecast
9/3	Sat	vs.	LA-Monroe	99%	W
9/10	Sat	vs.	Charleston Southern	100%	W
9/17	Sat	vs.	Oklahoma	63%	W
9/24	Sat	@	*Clemson	77%	W
10/8	Sat	@	*Wake Forest	95%	W
10/15	Sat	@	*Duke	94%	W
10/22	Sat	vs.	*Maryland	92%	W
10/29	Sat	vs.	*N.C. State	87%	W
11/3	Thu	@	*Boston College	82%	W
11/12	Sat	vs.	*Miami FL	87%	W
11/19	Sat	vs.	*Virginia	97%	W
11/26	Sat	@	Florida	68%	W
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 10-2  Bowl eligible: 99.9%

 

2011 Outlook  Florida State fans are looking for a big year in 2011. They're starting in the top 10 in the polls (#5 USA/Coaches poll) and they'll have ample opportunity to move up if they can beat #1 Oklahoma on September 17th. We have them favored there due to home field, but with so many questions about both teams this one can be considered an unknown.

After that there aren't too many challenges, nor opportunities to impress voters and computers. Running the table would put them in a BCS bowl by virtue of winning the ACC, but they could lose to Oklahoma and still do that. If they beat the Sooners they'll be thinking national championship, and a 13-0 record would almost certainly put them in position to be in the title game. That would include a win at Florida and a win over the ACC Coastal champ, presumably Virginia Tech.

The cumulative odds are teetering on the cusp of 10-2 and 11-1, with 11-1 the most likely single result and 10-2 the weighted average result. Because the odds give them two losses, or one, we'll project them to be ACC champs but not in the BCS championship. But the home game against the Sooners gives them the opportunity.

2011 Pre-Season Rankings: #6 Boise State Broncos

SportsRatings 2011 College Football Pre-season Top 120

BOISE STATE BRONCOS   (WAC #1)

#6	2010 Results	Record: 12-1	Strength:#3  Success:#7  Overall:#5
		AP #9, USA #7	Bowl: Beat Utah 26-3 (Poinsettia)
	2011 Outlook	Record: 11-1	Picks: Lindy's #6; Athlon #5; Steele #4
		AP #5, USA #7	Bowl: Fiesta (eligibility odds: 99.9%)

Boise State is back for another run at the BCS championship game, but they'll probably have to settle for one of the non-championship BCS bowls.

Offense 7 RS	'10 Scoring Offense: #2 (raw) #5 (adjusted)
	'11 Projected Scoring Offense: #5

Now a senior, Kellen Moore has one last shot at a national championship dream; he'll have a little less help at receiver than last year.

Passing Game	'10 Passing Rank: #6 (raw) #7 (adjusted)	'10 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #3
	'11 Projected Passing Rank: #15	'11 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #4

Few college quarterbacks accomplish what Kellen Moore has. He's thrown for over 10,000 yards already, and he's 38-2 as a starter. What he really wants is a national title, however. Last year was another great one; he completed 71% of his attempts for 3,845 yards and 35 touchdowns with just 6 interceptions. It could be a bit more challenging this time around as Titus Young (1,215 yards, 9 TDs) and Austin Pettis (951 yards, 10 TDs), the school's all-time top two in receiving yards, depart. He does have starters at wide receiver (Tyler Shoemaker, 582 yards), running back (Doug Martin, 338), and tight end (Kyle Efaw, 299) to throw to, and Kirby Moore (242 in '09) comes back from a redshirt year. Backup QB Joe Southwick (202 passing yards) is good but if Moore is hurt it's a huge drop in experience, but the offensive line protects Moore very well. They might give up double-digits in sacks this year, however (up from 8 last year). Moore will have another great year but without the dynamic duo at receiver it won't be quite as great.

Rushing

'10 Rushing Rank: #21 (raw) #29 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #34

Doug Martin is also a senior, and he led the team with 1,260 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground. Another Boise staple, Jeremy Avery, departs after a solid 2010 (495 yards, 11 TDs). Also gone is #3 rusher Jarvis Hodge (305) while D.J. Harper (160, 8.9 average) is back from his 2nd ACL tear. The offensive line should have another great year. They lose starters Will Lawrence and Matt Slater, but seniors Thomas Byrd and Nate Potter are back along with junior Joe Kellogg. Also, 2009 half-time starter Michael Ames is back from injury and in a backup role. Martin and Harper will make a great 1-2 punch if Harper avoids injury, but the backfield isn't as deep as last year and production may drop slightly.

Defense 7 RS	'10 Scoring Defense: #2 (raw) #3 (adjusted)	'10 sacks: #1	'10 picks: #52
	'11 Projected Scoring Defense: #3	'11 sacks: #1	'11 picks: #63
'10 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #26    Pass Defense  per-game: #3   Per-attempt: #3

If it's possible for Boise State's pass rush to be better than last year, it will be. Boise recorded 49 sacks and finished #1 adjusted for opposition in sacks per game; this year they lose Ryan Winterswyk (2.5 sacks) off the defensive line but seniors Billy Winn (4 sacks), Chase Baker (4.5), and Shea McClellin (9.5) return, while Tyrone Crawford (7) will move into the starting lineup. At linebacker seniors Byron Hout and Aaron Tevis return to the 4-2-5, and backup J.C. Percy was the team's #2 tackler. The secondary loses nickel back Winston Venable (5.5 sacks), Brandyn Thompson, and #1 tackler Jeron Johnson; George Iloka and Jamar Taylor are back. With six seniors in the front six the rush defense should improve and the overall defense might be a bit better, too, despite the weaker secondary.

Kicking Game:  Kyle Brotzman had a great career at Boise State that will unfortunately be remembered for the missed field goals against Nevada. He averaged 44.1 yards per punt last year and made 16 of 23 field goals, missing the two that really mattered unfortunately. Trevor Harman had a 44.7 average on punts last year but Brad Elkin returns from a redshirt year to claim the job. Freshman Jake van Ginkle is the new kicker.
Return Game:  Chris Potter will return punts again after averaging 13.3 yards per attempt last year with one touchdown return. WR Titus Young handled kickoffs in the past, with a 23.5 yard average last year; RB Doug Martin may take over.

Coaching/Recruiting      2011 Recruiting Rank: #76          2010 Recruiting Rank: #119
Chris Peterson has put together five straight 10+ win seasons at Boise State and this year they move to the Mountain West. With BYU and Utah gone it's not quite the move it would have been a few years ago, but they do play TCU which creates a big game for both schools to hang their hat on. In the first half of the 2000s, Boise's undefeated and 1-loss teams weren't among the best in the nation, as they weren't dominant in their wins and occasionally lost to mediocre BCS league teams. But in 2006 Boise was a legit borderline top 10 team and beat Oklahoma to prove it. In recent years they've been a top five program and would be a fully legitimate national title game participant if they'd gotten there either year. Recruiting at Boise State isn't great, and Peterson should be commended for both finding diamonds in the rough and making stars out of them. Last year's recruiting class was almost non-existent due to lack of need and lack of space, as they hardly lost anyone off the roster. This year's class is much more substantial and includes a number of grayshirts that would have been part of last year's tiny group.

2010 Recap 

 During the regular season Boise State played 7 excellent games and 5 very good ones; unfortunately one of the "very good" came at Nevada, where they lost in overtime after missing a game winning chip shot field goal. But they never had any meltdowns, either on offense or defense all year.

The big season-opener vs. Virginia Tech (pretty much a road game) was one of the just "very good" games and they needed a last-minute drive to win. Their next test, Oregon State, was much the same, as they performed well but didn't score a blowout. A number of walkover opponents followed (though Toledo did finish 8-4) until the heart of the WAC schedule, where they faced Hawaii, rival Idaho, Fresno State, and Nevada in a row. In the first three games they played their best football of the season: Boise thrashed Hawaii 42-7, holding the Warriors' high-powered offense to a touchdown; they clobbered their rival Idaho 52-14 on the road; and embarrassed Fresno State with a dominant 52-0 shutout. Going into Nevada, they took a commanding lead but the Wolf Pack battled back and we know what happened next. Suddenly Boise's dream was over. They bounced back well, however, beating Utah State and Utah both soundly to finish 12-1.

Boise St 2011 schedule & forecast
9/3	Sat	@	Georgia	70%	W
9/17	Sat	@	Toledo	91%	W
9/24	Sat	vs.	Tulsa	84%	W
10/1	Sat	vs.	Nevada	85%	W
10/7	Fri	@	Fresno State	93%	W
10/15	Sat	@	*Colorado State	98%	W
10/22	Sat	vs.	*Air Force	81%	W
11/5	Sat	@	*UNLV	99%	W
11/12	Sat	vs.	*TCU	63%	W
11/19	Sat	@	*San Diego State	83%	W
11/26	Sat	vs.	*Wyoming	99%	W
12/3	Sat	vs.	*New Mexico	99%	W
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 11-1  Bowl eligible: 99.9%

 

2011 Outlook  Boise State looks headed for another 12-0 season if they can get past the opener against Georgia and the TCU test later in the year.

Actually there are a few other tests. Tulsa might be very good, though they have to play in Boise. Air Force and San Diego State will both be solid teams. Fresno State will certainly put up more of a fight this year. All of this puts the cumulative projection just barely at 11-1. It gives Boise a 17% chance to go undefeated, which makes sense when you figure that the Georgia and TCU games alone should put them below a 50% chance.

Ultimately though, TCU is much better than any team on their schedule. Unless Georgia is going to be a factor in the SEC race the Bulldogs aren't up to the Broncos standard, unlike the last time they played. Boise was coming off an 11-1 season and lost that game 48-13. But that Boise team ranked #48 at the end of the year. And this year's Georgia doesn't look as good as last year's Virginia Tech. Like they beat Oregon (twice) and Virginia Tech, I think the Broncos will beat Georgia.

After that, it's a matter of staying vigilant, winning with style points, and hoping both Georgia and TCU have good seasons for the BCS computers. And hoping the Alabamas and Oklahomas of the world suffer multiple losses. In the end Boise probably won't make it again, but if they do they'll be a worthy foe.

2011 Pre-Season Rankings: #7 Wisconsin Badgers

SportsRatings 2011 College Football Pre-season Top 120

WISCONSIN BADGERS   (Big Ten #1; Leaders #1)

#7	2010 Results	Record: 11-2	Strength:#12  Success:#10  Overall:#11
		AP #7, USA #8	Bowl: Lost to TCU 21-19 (Rose)
	2011 Outlook	Record: 10-2	Picks: Lindy's #17; Athlon #23; Steele #20
		AP #11, USA #10	Bowl: Rose (eligibility odds: 99.9%)

Wisconsin had a real shot at making the national title game, but they'll probably have to go undefeated to do it. They've got a shot at doing just that.

Offense 5 RS	'10 Scoring Offense: #5 (raw) #6 (adjusted)
	'11 Projected Scoring Offense: #4

The arrival of Russell Wilson from North Carolina State is the last piece of the puzzle Wisconsin needed to compete for a national championship.

Passing Game	'10 Passing Rank: #76 (raw) #87 (adjusted)	'10 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #26
	'11 Projected Passing Rank: #82	'11 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #29

Scott Tolzien didn't set the world on fire with his passing but that wasn't his job on run-oriented Wisconsin. His job was to produce efficiently, and on that front he succeeded in his senior year, completing 73% of his passes for 2,459 yards and 16 touchdowns with just 6 interceptions. He seemingly passed the torch to sophomore John Budmayr (134 yards) who attempted only 10 passes last year, which was a major area of concern on the offense. But over the summer Russell Wilson, ex-N.C. State starter, transferred in and can play immediately under the grad student rule. Wilson passed for over 3,500 yards last year with 28 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, making him a more productive, but less efficient helmsman. He likes to run, too, so it will be interesting to see how he gets worked into the offense. Wisconsin loses three of their top five targets including tight end Lance Kendricks (#1 with 663 yards) and WR David Gilreath (#3, 370) while #2 Nick Toon (459) and #4 Jared Abbrederis (289) return. Five other returnees had 5 or more receptions including starting tight end Jake Byrne. The receiver talent isn't spectacular and Wilson may be a tough fit for the system, but his presence will keep the passing game from faltering at the least.

Rushing

'10 Rushing Rank: #12 (raw) #9 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #7

Wisconsin was 4 yards away from having three 1,000 yard rushers last year, and two of them are back. James White finished #1 with 1,052 yards and 14 touchdowns. John Clay had 1,012 yards and 14 TDs. Montee Ball had 996 and a whopping 18. That's 3,060 yards and 46 touchdowns, of which 2,048 and 32 are back as Clay departs. Beyond that trio there wasn't much more (how could there be?); Zach Brown was expected to be the third RB but he transferred. QB Wilson, however, had 435 last year so they could get some ground yardage out of the QB position. The offensive line takes some hits, as Gabe Carimi and John Moffitt are two huge losses and half-time starter Bill Nagy is gone as well. But they have Kevin Zeitler back with juniors Peter Konz and Ricky Wagner, and Josh Oglesby (2009 starter) returns, so the line should be nearly as strong as last year. White and Ball both had a better average than Clay and should both top 1,000 easily this year; with Russell as a plus the rushing game shouldn't miss a beat.

Defense 6 RS	'10 Scoring Defense: #25 (raw) #32 (adjusted)	'10 sacks: #67	'10 picks: #44
	'11 Projected Scoring Defense: #31	'11 sacks: #67	'11 picks: #49
'10 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #31    Pass Defense  per-game: #18   Per-attempt: #38

The Wisconsin defensive line loses 1-man wrecking crew J.J. Watt, who had 7 sacks, 14 additional tackles for loss, 8 pass breakups, and 10 quarterback hurries. Senior starters Louis Nzegwu and Patrick Butryn are back as well as half-time starters Jodan Kohout and Ethan Hemer, so the D-line is in good shape even if their combined stats (6.5 sacks, 6 tfl, 4 pbu, 8 QBh) aren't as impressive as Watt's by himself. They lose two linebackers including #1 tackler Blake Sorensen while Mike Taylor (#4) is back along with '09 starter Chris Borland. The secondary loses two starters including Niles Brinkley (9 pass breakups) while Antonio Fenelus (team leader w/4 interceptions) and Aaron Henry are back. On balance the defense should be about like last year: good, but not great.

Kicking Game:  Brad Nortman (42.7 yards per punt) and Phillip Welch (17 of 22 field goals) are both back for the Badgers.
Return Game:  Punt and kick returner David Gilreath (10.2 ave on punts, 24.4 on kickoffs, 1 TD) moves on and James White (19.4 ave) may continue to handled kickoffs with fellow RB Jared Abbrederis on punts, while  freshman Kenzel Doe may be used on either, too.

Coaching/Recruiting      2011 Recruiting Rank: #45          2010 Recruiting Rank: #32
Bret Bielema didn't miss a beat when he took over the team from Barry Alvarez in 2006; in his first season the Badgers were 12-1. They've had double digit wins twice more since then including last year's 11 wins, but they are seemingly never even in the discussion for national champion. They've only started better than 6-0 twice in the last 99 years; once in 2004 when there was a glut of undefeated teams, and in 1998 when there was the tops of the polls were similarly crowded. So despite the huge amount of wins there's never been a year when Wisconsin was in pole position for the national championship. Could this be the year?

2010 Recap 

Wisconsin started slow last year, as they were unimpressive in beating UNLV, San Jose State, and Arizona State (21-20). They lost to Michigan State 34-24. But the Badgers got better throughout the season, even after the season-defining 31-18 win over Ohio State. They escaped with a win over Iowa (31-30), then dominated the last four teams on their schedule. The Badgers' offense made leaps and bounds and scored an amazing 201 points in their last three games. Despite the loss to MSU the Badgers were higher in the BCS and got the Rose Bowl bid. When they took on TCU at the Rose Bowl, suddenly the steamrolling stopped; they were held to 19 points and lost when a 2-point conversion attempt was batted down.

Wisconsin 2011 schedule & forecast
9/3	Sat	vs.	UNLV	99%	W
9/10	Sat	vs.	Oregon State	84%	W
9/17	Sat	N	Northern Illinois	88%	W
9/24	Sat	vs.	South Dakota	100%	W
10/1	Sat	vs.	*Nebraska	75%	W
10/15	Sat	vs.	*Indiana	98%	W
10/22	Sat	@	*Michigan State	73%	W
10/29	Sat	@	*Ohio State	51%	W
11/5	Sat	vs.	*Purdue	95%	W
11/12	Sat	@	*Minnesota	89%	W
11/19	Sat	@	*Illinois	68%	W
11/26	Sat	vs.	*Penn State	87%	W
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 10-2  Bowl eligible: 99.9%

 

2011 Outlook  One game stands out in Wisconsin's efforts to go to the national championship or even back the Rose Bowl, and that's Ohio State in Columbus. A very close game by the numbers, it now looks like it favors the Badgers and we pick Wisconsin to win every game this season. The cumulative odds say 10-2 is the most likely outcome, and gives the team a 10% shot at going undefeated. But nowhere else does Wisconsin look in trouble, even hosting Nebraska whom we only give a 25% chance of upset. The road game at Illinois actually looks tougher, and could be a trap if Wisconsin comes to Champaign-Urbana 10-0.

The hardest part of the OSU game might be getting used to going on the road. None of Wisconsin's first six games are true road games; they'll be coming off their first road trip to Michigan State when they face the Buckeyes. They have four road games in five weeks from late October to mid-November.

Starting where they do in the AP and Coaches polls (#11 and #10), Wisconsin might need help even if they went undefeated. If Oklahoma and Alabama run the table the Badgers would go back to the Rose Bowl. Basically they can expect to be in the BCS title game if they are 13-0 and go to the Rose Bowl at 12-1. There they'd face either Oregon or Stanford, depending on how the Pac-12 race goes.

2011 Pre-Season Rankings: #8 TCU Horned Frogs

SportsRatings 2011 College Football Pre-season Top 120

TCU HORNED FROGS   (Mountain West #2)

#8	2010 Results	Record: 13-0	Strength:#5  Success:#2  Overall:#3
		AP #2, USA #2	Bowl: Beat Wisconsin 21-19 (Rose)
	2011 Outlook	Record: 10-2	Picks: Lindy's #15; Athlon #15; Steele #21
		AP #14, USA #15	Bowl: Poinsettia (eligibility odds: 99.9%)

TCU prepares for its final season in the Mountain West with a lot of new faces on offense.

Offense 3 RS	'10 Scoring Offense: #4 (raw) #8 (adjusted)
	'11 Projected Scoring Offense: #16

Even if the passing game goes bust without Andy Dalton the team's mainstay—running the ball—will be strong.

Passing Game	'10 Passing Rank: #53 (raw) #43 (adjusted)	'10 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #7
	'11 Projected Passing Rank: #91	'11 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #20

Andy Dalton started for the Horned Frogs for four years and leaves their all-time leading passer by nearly a 3,000 yard cushion. Last year he threw for 2,857 yards and 27 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions, completing 66% of his attempts. Casey Patchell also completed 2/3 of his attempts, but he only threw the ball 9 times; the team will find out if his efficiency remains as his playtime scales up. Josh Boyce, who finished #1 with 646 receiving yards (6 TDs) is back, but receptions leader (56 to Boyce's 34) Jeremy Kerley (575 yards, 10 TDs) is gone along with Jimmy Young and Bart Johnson who combined for 905 yards and 8 TDs. Three other players with over 100 receiving yards are back including Antoine Hicks who had nearly 500 yards in 2009. The offensive line allowed just 9 sacks last year but Patchell won't have that luxury as the O-line is almost completely rebuilt. In short, don't expect miracles out of Patchell and you won't be disappointed.

Rushing

'10 Rushing Rank: #10 (raw) #14 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #14

TCU's running game has been one of the nation's best for years and that shouldn't change any time soon. Ed Wesley ran for 1,078 yards and 11 touchdowns last year with a 6.5 yard-per-carry average (6.3 last year). Matthew Tucker was #2 with 709 yards and 7 TDs, but his average fell from 6.4 to 4.8. Waymon James ran for 513 (5 TDs) as a freshman. All three are back. The top runner to replace is QB Dalton (435, 6 TDs) and Patchell has shown good running ability (6.3 average last year). Aundre Dean had 223 (7.0 average) and returns as well. The backfield is loaded for bear but the offensive line is depleted. They lose starters Jake Kirkpatrick, Marcus Cannon, Josh Vernon, and Zach Roth. The new line will be built around senior left guard Kyle Dooley. Jeff Olson started part-time last year, and Blaize Foltz started a few games in 2009. Obviously the situtation is not ideal and the line should still be good, it's nothing like last year's line and basically balances out the return of all the backfield talent. Production could be up a bit or down a lot depending on how the O-line works out.

Defense 5 RS	'10 Scoring Defense: #1 (raw) #4 (adjusted)	'10 sacks: #69	'10 picks: #56
	'11 Projected Scoring Defense: #4	'11 sacks: #78	'11 picks: #88
'10 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #12    Pass Defense  per-game: #1   Per-attempt: #2

The Frog defense was one of the nation's best again last year, and was particularly good against the pass. The rush defense was good but not in the top ten once adjusted for the weaker rushing teams they faced. This year the defensive line essentially loses three starters including Wayne Daniels (6.5 sacks). Stansly Maponga is back with part-time starter D.J. Yendry (5.5 sacks combined) but the rushing D rank will probably fall. At the two linebacker positions in the 4-2-5, #1 tackler Tanner Brock (106 tackles) returns with Rose-bowl game-saver Tank Carder. Colin Jones (8.5 tackles for loss) and Tejay Johnson (3 int) are among those lost from the secondary while Greg McCoy is back with half-time starter Tekerrein Cuba. In all the defense slips a bit, over a point per game, but they still rank #4 for this year.

Kicking Game:  Punter Anson Kelton (41.6 yard average) and kicker Ross Evans (11 of 13 field goals made) are both back for their senior years.
Return Game:  The Horned Frogs lose one of the better return men in the country as WR Jeremy Kerley leaves. Kerley averaged 12.9 yards per punt return and 27.7 per kickoff return. Corner Greg McCoy should take over on kickoffs as he had a 33.4 yard average (just 5 attempts) last year. Junior WR Skye Dawson will field punts.

Coaching/Recruiting      2011 Recruiting Rank: #23          2010 Recruiting Rank: #65
Gary Patterson has put together seven 10-win seasons in the last nine years and soon TCU will head off to the Big East, strange as it may seem geographically. The Frogs want an automatic BCS bid if they win their conference, and the Mountain West didn't offer that. Interestingly, since Boise State moves to the MWC this year, if they could have held on to Utah and BYU the conference would have had a great argument for becoming an "AQ" conference, and would have been far more deserving with that lineup than the Big East is. But BYU went independent and Utah went to the Pac-12, and soon the Mountain West will be Boise State plus a bunch of also-rans, much like the WAC was. This year's recruiting class was extra good, possibly because of the announced move and greater chance of being in a high-profile bowl game? More likely, it was just the fact that they went undefeated and won the Rose Bowl; that's about as good as it gets.

2010 Recap 

TCU didn't have a hard schedule, that's for sure. But it wasn't easy, either; they played six teams that qualified for bowl games, and that's without noting Oregon State, who was at full strength when they played the Horned Frogs. In terms of performance it was hard to find fault, particularly on defense. In one six-game stretch they gave up 0, 0, 3, 7, 6, and 7 points; three of those teams were bowl-winners BYU and Air Force, and ranked Utah. The Utah game was particularly stunning; before that point the Utes were on a roll but they were crushed 47-7 at home.

TCU's defense had a bit of trouble in their last two games, giving up late plays to San Diego State's passing game in a 40-35 win and allowing New Mexico to score 17 first-half points before winning 66-17. Against Wisconsin the defense gave up only one disastrous play (the very first from scrimmage) and then regrouped to hold the Badgers to 19, with Tank Carder batting down the pass on the 2-point conversion try to seal the deal on a 13-0 season.

TCU 2011 schedule & forecast
9/3	Sat	@	Baylor	87%	W
9/10	Sat	@	*Air Force	64%	W
9/17	Sat	vs.	LA-Monroe	99%	W
9/24	Sat	vs.	Portland State	100%	W
10/1	Sat	vs.	SMU	93%	W
10/8	Sat	@	*San Diego State	78%	W
10/22	Sat	vs.	*New Mexico	99%	W
10/28	Fri	vs.	BYU	88%	W
11/5	Sat	@	*Wyoming	97%	W
11/12	Sat	@	*Boise State	37%	L
11/19	Sat	vs.	*Colorado State	99%	W
12/3	Sat	vs.	*UNLV	99%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 10-2  Bowl eligible: 99.9%

 

2011 Outlook  TCU's schedule is about as easy as last year's; in fact, the major change is trading Utah for Boise State, and instead of Oregon State they have Louisiana-Monroe. The latter makes the schedule easier, but the former will probably give them their only loss.

Despite TCU's personnel losses the team is still strong and more than a match for most of the teams on the schedule. Six games look like total blowouts: ULM, Portland State, New Mexico, Wyoming, Colorado State, and UNLV. SMU will be a bit more of a challenge but they play them at home.

That leaves five games in question. Baylor and BYU can't be taken for granted but appear to be wins. Air Force and San Diego State could be tough road games but we still favor the Horned Frogs. Then there's the trip to MWC newcomer Boise State, and while TCU has a chance, it's really tough to win there. Boise State loses far less than TCU, too, and has played them very well the last two meetings, managing to shut down TCU's offense. Even if they coast the rest of the year, the Boise game probably ruins another undefeated season attempt, though due to having so many easy games the cumulative odds give a 12% chance that the Horned Frogs go 12-0. The expected number of wins is 10.

Even if TCU went undefeated, like last year they'd probably be shut out of the national title game, but beating Boise would get them to a BCS bowl, probably the Fiesta. Which is no worse than what they would get if they won the Big East; the only difference is they could probably lose 2-3 games and get a BCS bowl in the Big East. This year, it's probably the Poinsettia Bowl for TCU, against the top WAC team so we expect Nevada. That would be quite the clash between running teams.

2011 Pre-Season Rankings: #9 South Carolina Gamecocks

SportsRatings 2011 College Football Pre-season Top 120

SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS   (SEC #2; East #1)

#9	2010 Results	Record: 9-5	Strength:#15  Success:#24  Overall:#17
		AP #22, USA #22	Bowl: Lost to FSU 26-17 (Chik-fil-A)
	2011 Outlook	Record: 9-3	Picks: Lindy's #11; Athlon #21; Steele #12
		AP #12, USA #12	Bowl: Sugar/Capital One (eligibility odds: 99.8%)

South Carolina once again tries to have the kind of season they expected when they hired Steve Spurrier.

Offense 7 RS	'10 Scoring Offense: #38 (raw) #24 (adjusted)
	'11 Projected Scoring Offense: #13

As long as Stephen Garcia behaves himself and Marcus Lattimore avoids injury the South Carolina offense will be a very strong one in 2011.

Passing Game	'10 Passing Rank: #44 (raw) #39 (adjusted)	'10 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #58
	'11 Projected Passing Rank: #22	'11 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #66

Stephen Garcia should literally have a doghouse built for him and reside there, because the guy is just incredible. What does it take for this doofus to obey a few simple rules? Once again coming off multiple suspensions, it's hard to believe he'll last the season without Spurrier saying you know what? I'm sick of this guy's shit. He's gone. But assuming he does play the full year somehow, he should top last year's 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns. Key receiver Alshon Jeffries caught fully half of the yardage that Garcia passed for (1,517 yards, 9 TDs) and he's back along with starter D.L. Moore (#5 with 164 yards) and #4 Ace Sanders (316). #3 was RB Marcus Lattimore (412), while #2 Tori Gurley is gone along with tight end Patrick DiMarco (6th with 147). The O-line might give up even more than last year's 30 sacks but with Garcia and Jeffries back all is good, and backup Connor Shaw (223) is ready to take over in the event that it suddenly isn't all good anymore.

Rushing

'10 Rushing Rank: #60 (raw) #31 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #27

Marcus Lattimore has already become synonymous with "freshman running back phenom" and every reference to a new true freshman running back has to wonder "is he another Marcus Lattimore?" Lattimore rushed for nearly 1,200 yards and scored 17 touchdowns last year, pumping up the South Carolina offense and making the ground game as important as the pass. Backup Brian Maddox had 391 but departs. #3 was QB Garcia (222 after 150+ sack yards deducted) and #4 was backup QB Shaw (165, 5.2 average). RB Kenny Miles was #5 with 152 (3.8) after leading the team in 2009 with 626. The offensive line returns almost three starters. Essentially 2.5 starters leave in Garrett Chisholm, Hutch Eckerson, and half-time starter Jarriel King. Coming back are T.J. Johnson, Rokevious Watkins, and Kyle Nunn. The line might be a little weaker but Lattimore will be stronger; assuming he takes it to the next level rather than having a sophomore slump a la Adrian Peterson, the ground game should improve a bit.

Defense 7 RS	'10 Scoring Defense: #43 (raw) #16 (adjusted)	'10 sacks: #18	'10 picks: #80
	'11 Projected Scoring Defense: #10	'11 sacks: #10	'11 picks: #51
'10 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #5    Pass Defense  per-game: #58   Per-attempt: #35

The SC rushing defense was already among the very best in the country and it could even move up from there. The defensive line loses two starters including Cliff Matthews who had 5.5 sacks, but Devin Taylor (7.5 sacks, 8 pass breakups, and 11 QB hurries) and Travian Robertson (4 sacks) return. They also get the top recruit in the nation, Jadeveon Clowney, who is expected to start immediately. At linebacker they have four players who were starters at one time or another at one position or another, even as two starters from last year leave. Antonio Allen (#2 tackler) is back, and Shaq Wilson who started in 2009 is back from injury along with Rodney Paulk who started in 2006 and 2007 (hurt from 2008-9, played last year). What's more, DeVonte Hollman moves in from safety. In addition to Hollman the secondary loses a half-time starter but #1 tackler Stephon Gilmore (3 interceptions), Akeem Auguste, and D.J. Swearinger are back. The defense has seven of its top eight tacklers returning and should be a top ten unit.

Kicking Game:  Spencer Lanning was punter and placekicker for the Gamecocks last year, with a 44.1 yard average in the former and making 17 of 24 field goals as the latter. He's gone, and freshman Patrick Fish and senior Jay Wooten are set to take over the jobs..
Return Game:  Stephon Gilmore is a true jack-of-all-trades, playing cornerback, running the wildcat (wild cock at SC), and returning kicks. He averaged just 5.2 yards per return however, and WR Ace Sanders may get the job. Likewise Bryce Sherman was only adequate on kickoffs (20.4 average) and freshman Damiere Byrd could replace him.

Coaching/Recruiting      2011 Recruiting Rank: #4          2010 Recruiting Rank: #43
Steven Spurrier recruited a small army in 2011, and that's one reason they rank in the top 5 in our recruiting rankings. With 32 recruits, even if half are above-average you have a great class; here, around 30 of the 32 are above-average prospects. And there are some who are much better than that, of course, including defensive end Jadaveon Clowney, the nation's consensus #1 recruit at any position. He'll start right away on the D-line, and joining him may be Kelcy Quarles, a blue-chip recruit who didn't qualify last year but came back and is now a true freshman. If Spurrier keeps recruiting classes like this his only worry might be figuring out how to feed them all.

2010 Recap 

South Carolina defeated a remarkable seven bowl teams last year, including their big upset of Alabama. Following that win they lost to Kentucky, and when they fell to Arkansas they appeared to be headed for another typical 5-loss season. But they won three straight and found themselves in the SEC title game against Auburn. They lost to the Tigers for the second time (56-17), and it wasn't close like the first one (35-27).

The Gamecocks were up and down last year, on both offense and defense, but their most consistent play was before the SEC title game. They beat Florida handily, 36-14, then scored 69 on the Sun Belt's Troy, and won at rival Clemson 29-7. They just didn't have it against Auburn, however, playing their worst game of the year. Perhaps that performance carried through to their bowl game, where they fell to FSU 26-17.

S. Carolina 2011 schedule & forecast
9/3	Sat	N	East Carolina	97%	W
9/10	Sat	@	*Georgia	63%	W
9/17	Sat	vs.	Navy	93%	W
9/24	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	95%	W
10/1	Sat	vs.	*Auburn	72%	W
10/8	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	88%	W
10/15	Sat	@	*Mississippi St.	57%	W
10/29	Sat	@	*Tennessee	77%	W
11/5	Sat	@	*Arkansas	50%	W
11/12	Sat	vs.	*Florida	71%	W
11/19	Sat	vs.	Citadel	100%	W
11/26	Sat	vs.	Clemson	80%	W
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 99.8%

 

2011 Outlook  It looks like a very good year for Spurrier's team, perhaps his best since his Florida coaching days. But how many times have we heard that before? At lot of things have to happen but the Gamecocks could go undefeated this year and square off against the winner of the powerful SEC West for the right to go to the BCS Championship game. A couple of requirements are: Stephen Garcia has to play well and stay out of trouble. Marcus Lattimore can't get hurt, either.

Assuming the above, they then have to get past Arkansas in Fayetteville, no small task. Though marked at 50% the Gamecocks have a tiny edge and get credited with the "W" on the game-by-game chart putting them at 12-0. Their next toughest game is at Mississippi State. Other tests are at Georgia early in the season, and to a lesser extent Auburn and Florida at home.

The cumulative odds show a 10-win season as the most likely outcome, giving just over a 4% chance of South Carolina going 12-0. The cumulative odds are also interesting in that, though the Gamecocks show a 50.5% chance of getting 10 or more wins, the expected value for number of wins is 9.44, which would round down to 9-3. In other words, the median average of wins is closer to 10, but the mean average is closer to 9. But we show 10-2 because the median (tallest bar above 50% on the bottom chart) and the mode (tallest bar on the top chart) both go with 10-2. [Update: Interestingly, after some final revisions, though the mean is still 9.44, the median has slipped to just below a 50% chance of 10 or more wins, so we put SC at 9-3.]

South Carolina is expected to win the East, undefeated or not, and then be a big underdog to Alabama, the favorite in the West. So no matter how their regular season schedule works out we still have the Gamecocks the #2 team in the SEC. For that they have a good chance of going to a BCS bowl game (Sugar Bowl), and if not, to the Capital One Bowl.

2011 Pre-Season Rankings: #10 Texas A&M Aggies

SportsRatings 2011 College Football Pre-season Top 120

TEXAS A&M AGGIES   (Big Twelve #2)

#10	2010 Results	Record: 9-4	Strength:#24  Success:#16  Overall:#19
		AP #19, USA #21	Bowl: Lost to LSU 41-24 (Cotton)
	2011 Outlook	Record: 9-3	Picks: Lindy's #13; Athlon #11; Steele #9
		AP #8, USA #9	Bowl: Cotton (eligibility odds: 99.8%)

The Aggies will be a lot better than last year, and they were very good, particularly in the 2nd half of the season. Can they make a run to a Big Twelve crown or higher?

Offense 10 RS	'10 Scoring Offense: #35 (raw) #29 (adjusted)
	'11 Projected Scoring Offense: #18

Midway through last year A&M got the right quarterback (and running back) starting, and the team started winning.

Passing Game	'10 Passing Rank: #20 (raw) #16 (adjusted)	'10 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #99
	'11 Projected Passing Rank: #8	'11 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #77

Technically Texas A&M loses over half their production from the quarterback position from last year. Jarrod Johnson had 1,947 yards and 14 touchdowns and departs, while Ryan Tannehill (1,638 and 13) remains. But Tannehill took over the starting job midway through the season following a 3-game slump and won six straight for the Aggies. Almost every receiver is back, from Jeff Fuller's 1,026 yards (12 TDs) to tight end Nehemiah Hicks' 141, and everyone in between like starters Ryan Swope (825) and Uzoma Nwachukwu (407). Tannehill had 143 as a receiver before taking over the QB job. The offensive line allowed 37 sacks but got better when Tannehill was QB and should be stronger next year. The passing game is ready for the big time and should be in the top ten; what A&M is missing with Johnson gone is a solid backup as the #2 QB will probably be a freshman.

Rushing

'10 Rushing Rank: #45 (raw) #52 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #36

Those fully crediting Tannehill for the team's resurgence should not that in the same game where Tannehill took over for Johnson, Cyrus Gray effectively took over for Christine Michael at running back as he had 117 yards to Michael's 33. Michael hurt his ankle the next game and was out for the season with 631 yards; Gray went on to rack up 1,138 and 12 touchdowns. Both are back this year and will be following an even stronger offensive line. Three starters—juniors Patrick Lewis and Brian Thomas, and sophomore Luke Joeckel—are back with half-time starters Evan Eike and Jake Matthews as center Matt Allen exits. This year if both stay healthy they can really have a 1-2 punch with Gray and Michael, and the ground game should be stronger.

Defense 9 RS	'10 Scoring Defense: #34 (raw) #17 (adjusted)	'10 sacks: #19	'10 picks: #20
	'11 Projected Scoring Defense: #12	'11 sacks: #46	'11 picks: #12
'10 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #32    Pass Defense  per-game: #30   Per-attempt: #5

Though the Aggies lose a starter from the defensive line, they have Tony Jerrod-Eddie back along with Jonathan Mathis who started the majority, and Eddie Brown who started half-time last year and nearly full-time the year before, so the rush defense should actually improve. What won't improve is the team's sack rating, as linebackers Von Miller (10.5 sacks) and Michael Hodges (4.5 sacks, #1 tackler with 115) are gone. Garrick Williams (112 tackles) and Sean Porter are back, but they combined for just 1/2 sack. The secondary is where the real talent is now, as the team finished #5 in per-attempt pass defense last season and all starters return. Back are seniors Terrence Frederick (9 pass breakups), Trent Hunter, and Coryell Judie (4 interceptions), and two juniors who started half-time, Steven Campbell and Steven Terrell. They also have Dustin Harris who started in 2009 and last year had 9 pass breakups and 4 interceptions as a backup. They lose a few big names in the middle but overall the defense is better.

Kicking Game:  Ryan Epperson had just a 37.6 yard punting average last year; he returns but the job is open between Epperson, senior Ken Wood, and freshman Drew Kaser. Kicker Randy Bullock who made 16 of 21 field goals returns.
Return Game:  Kenrick McNeal will try to improve his 5.8 yard punt return average, while Coryell Judie would be hard-pressed to have a better 2011 after averaging 30.2 yards per kickoff return and taking two kicks back for touchdowns. Cyrus Gray also returned kickoffs at a 24.8 yard clip.

Coaching/Recruiting      2011 Recruiting Rank: #35          2010 Recruiting Rank: #22
This year's recruiting class wasn't bad but didn't make the top 25 nationally and ranks just in the middle of the conference. It might have ranked higher but near-blue chip recruit Jonathon Henderson was arrested for robbery and apparently had his offer withdrawn; he's currently not on the roster. Mike Sherman got a raise after his third year at aTm; he now makes a cool $2.2 million. So people are happy with him in College Station, but College Station isn't happy playing second fiddle to Texas in the Big Twelve, and rumors keep flying that the school is going to fly the coop after this season to join the SEC.

2010 Recap 

After three wins over easy opponents, TAMU went on a three-game slide—all against top 25 teams—that put the Aggies at 3-3 for the first half of the season and eventually led to the replacement of Jerrod Johnson at QB. The second half of the season went a lot smoother. After blasting Kansas with Tannehill taking over at QB, they beat four straight bowl teams including Oklahoma and Nebraska, then beat arch-rival Texas in Austin. The offense played very well in the first four wins and the defense stepped up against Nebraska (winning 9-6) in particular. The Aggies beat 5 bowl teams and all their losses were to top 25 teams.

Texas A&M 2011 schedule & forecast
9/3	Sat	vs.	SMU	93%	W
9/17	Sat	vs.	Idaho	97%	W
9/24	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma State	58%	W
10/1	Sat	N	Arkansas	58%	W
10/8	Sat	@	*Texas Tech	86%	W
10/15	Sat	vs.	*Baylor	93%	W
10/22	Sat	@	*Iowa State	87%	W
10/29	Sat	vs.	*Missouri	69%	W
11/5	Sat	@	*Oklahoma	33%	L
11/12	Sat	@	*Kansas State	81%	W
11/19	Sat	vs.	*Kansas	99%	W
11/26	Sat	vs.	*Texas	82%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 99.8%

 

2011 Outlook  Looking at each game individually and picking a winner, Texas A&M should go 11-1 this year. The mostly likely outcome according to the odds is 10-2. And the expected value, or weighted average of outcomes, is 9-3. There's only a 25% chance they'll fall short of 9 wins, and less than 0.5% chance that they'll fail to be bowl-eligible. According to our odds above they have a 3% chance of going undefeated.

The game that messes up their odds the most is the trip to Norman to take on the Sooners; that contest alone wipes out about 70% of their chance for an undefeated season. Other than that game the toughest battles look like Oklahoma State and Arkansas, two teams the Aggies lost to in 2010. For all nine other games the odds for A&M winning are 7 in 10 or greater. Part of the reason for that is the Aggies have seven home games and a "neutral" game, with only four on the road.

But one of those road games is the Oklahoma game. If the Aggies get past both OK State and Arkansas, that game will be very, very important.

2011 Pre-Season Rankings: #11 Oklahoma State Cowboys

SportsRatings 2011 College Football Pre-season Top 120

OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS   (Big Twelve #3)

#11	2010 Results	Record: 11-2	Strength:#9  Success:#11  Overall:#9
		AP #13, USA #10	Bowl: Beat Arizona 36-10 (Alamo)
	2011 Outlook	Record: 9-3	Picks: Lindy's #7; Athlon #12; Steele #13
		AP #9, USA #8	Bowl: Alamo (eligibility odds: 99%)

After surprising nearly everyone with an 11-win season in 2010, no one's going to be taken by surprise by the Cowboys this year.

Offense 9 RS	'10 Scoring Offense: #3 (raw) #4 (adjusted)
	'11 Projected Scoring Offense: #2

The Cowboys had a top five offense last year, and with quarterback Brandon Weedon, receiver Justin Blackmon, and the entire offensive line back, it could be even better in 2011.

Passing Game	'10 Passing Rank: #2 (raw) #4 (adjusted)	'10 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #5
	'11 Projected Passing Rank: #1	'11 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #2

The critical part of Oklahoma State's passing game is Justin Blackmon. His decision to return for another year insured that the Cowboys will have a great passing game again. Sure, quarterback Brandon Weeden's numbers are impressive—4,277 yards, 34 touchdowns, 13 interceptions—and he's more than just a system quarterback. But if he had chosen not to return, backup Clint Chelf (who completed 74% of his meager attempts, for around 20 yards per attempt) would still have Blackmon to throw to and do just fine. Blackmon caught 111 passes for 1,782 yards and 20 touchdowns; beyond him they have Josh Cooper (736 yards) and running back Joseph Randle (#4 with 427 yards). #3 Bo Bowling (437) is gone and no one else had more than 17 catches, though 5 players who had 11-17, and over 100 yards, return, including Hubert Anyiam who had over 500 in 2009. Blackmon is clearly the key puzzle piece and is a legit Heisman candidate if he can top last year's figures. The offensive line was just amazing last season, #5 in the nation when adjusted for the opposing teams' pass rush, giving up just 10 sacks in over 500 attempts. With all five starters back, if it's possible to cut it to single digits they will. Oklahoma State has our projected #1 passing offense for 2011.

Rushing

'10 Rushing Rank: #36 (raw) #49 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #52

The ground game isn't the focus of Oklahoma State's offense but they run so many plays that the running backs get significant attempts. It also helped that in the first year of implentation they happened to have one of Oklahoma State's all-time greats, Kendall Hunter. In his senior year Hunter came up 7 yards short of matching his 2008 rushing totals, gaining 1,548 yards and scoring 16 touchdowns. As he moves on to the NFL it will be up to sophmores Joseph Randle (452 yards) and Jeremy Smith (262) to make up the difference, which won't be easy. However, given the offensive line's experience it might be possible. All five starters are back: seniors Levy Adcock, Jonathan Rush, Grant Garner, and Nick Martinez join juniors Lane Taylor. Those five started every game for the Cowboys last year and should help Randle go over 1,000 yards...but 1,500+ is doubtful.

Defense 6 RS	'10 Scoring Defense: #62 (raw) #52 (adjusted)	'10 sacks: #70	'10 picks: #10
	'11 Projected Scoring Defense: #61	'11 sacks: #70	'11 picks: #9
'10 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #42    Pass Defense  per-game: #78   Per-attempt: #17

The Cowboy defensive line loses three starters, including full-timers Ugo Chinasa and Chris Donaldson who had 7 sacks total, but returnees Richetti Jones and Jamie Blatnick combined for 10 sacks so the fairly weak pass rush shouldn't get any worse. At linebacker they lose Justin Gent and #1 tackler Orie Lemon (133 tackles) while two half-time starters, Shaun Lewis and James Thomas (3 interceptions each), returning. The secondary has Markelle Martin (10 pass breakups), Johnny Thomas (3 int), and Brodrick Brown back while Andrew McGee (5 int) departs. Overall the defense takes a step down due to weakness up front and the loss of Lemon in the middle.

Kicking Game:  Quinn Sharp is back at punter after a stellar 2010 where he averaged 46.2 yards per punt with a 41.0 net. Sharp will also take over as placekicker this season, replacing Dan Bailey who made a splendid 27 of 31 attempts last season.
Return Game:  The Cowboys were even productive on kick returns, with WR Josh Cooper averaging 9.6 yards per punt return with one taken back for a touchdown, and corner Justin Gilbert averaging 26.8 yards per kickoff return and two touchdowns. Both are back for more.

Coaching/Recruiting      2011 Recruiting Rank: #18          2010 Recruiting Rank: #15
Mike Gundy turned an obvious rebuilding year into a great one in 2010. After a solid 2008 created great expectations for 2009 which turned into mild disappointment, the power trio of Zac Robinson, Kendall Hunter, and Dez Bryant was reduced by 2/3. Gundy hired Dana Holgersen away from Houston to shake things up and boy did it work out. Now he's had two very solid recruiting years in a row. The consensus top recruit of the class is Herschel Sims from Abilene, Texas, who has the potential to help people get over the loss of Kendall Hunter.

2010 Recap 

Oklahoma State wasn't supposed to be good, let alone great. But last year's trio of Weeden, Blackmon, and Hunter outperformed 2009's  trio of Zac Robinson, Dez Bryant (lost early in season) and Hunter (injury-hobbled). You couldn't tell from the first few games: everyone beats up on Washington State, and beating Troy and Tulsa didn't impress. But after the Cowboys outgunned Texas A&M 38-35, most people realized they weren't a fluke. They were 6-0 when they faced Nebraska and lost in a 51-41 shootout. Four more wins came before Oklahoma beat them in a second shootout 47-41. They beat Arizona handily in the Alamo Bowl.

2010 was a season much like the 1988 season, with losses to the same two opponents. Also similarly, the defense was weak, playing particularly poorly against Troy (38 points), Nebraska (51), and Oklahoma (47). Nebraska's Martinez threw 5 TD passes against them, and in the final loss to Oklahoma the secondary was burned spectacularly in two consecutive series late in the game.

OK State 2011 schedule & forecast
9/3	Sat	vs.	LA-Lafayette	99%	W
9/10	Sat	vs.	Arizona	79%	W
9/17	Sat	@	Tulsa	67%	W
9/24	Sat	@	*Texas A&M	42%	L
10/8	Sat	vs.	*Kansas	99%	W
10/15	Sat	@	*Texas	70%	W
10/22	Sat	@	*Missouri	55%	W
10/29	Sat	vs.	*Baylor	93%	W
11/5	Sat	vs.	*Kansas State	90%	W
11/12	Sat	@	*Texas Tech	85%	W
11/19	Sat	@	*Iowa State	86%	W
11/26	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma	47%	L
Straight up: 10-2  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 99%

 

2011 Outlook  Looks like another really good year for Oklahoma State, with the team favored in nearly every single game. The two that they aren't favored in are not too far out of reach, either, nearly being tossups.

If they can get past Texas A&M in College Station and beat Oklahoma at home, then they might be 12-0. That's not to dismiss the other, lesser pitfalls on their schedule—like Missouri in Columbia, Tulsa in Tulsa, and Texas in Austin—but they should win those along with the "easy" games like ULL, Kansas, Baylor, and Kansas State, all at home. The cumulative projection comes out to 9-3, with just a 2% chance of going undefeated, but a 99% chance of bowl eligibility.

If the Cowboys finish 3rd in the Big Twelve they'll go back to the Alamo Bowl, while a 2nd place finish would move them up to a Cotton Bowl bid. With a little luck in the two critical games, the Cowboys could play for the national title if they run the table and then beat AP #1 Oklahoma, but it's probably more likely they lose those and a third, maybe Missouri. Why? Because after last year they've completely lost the element of surprise!

2011 Pre-Season Rankings: #12 Louisiana State Tigers

SportsRatings 2011 College Football Pre-season Top 120

LOUISIANA STATE TIGERS   (SEC #3; West #2)

#12	2010 Results	Record: 11-2	Strength:#14  Success:#8  Overall:#10
		AP #8, USA #8	Bowl: Beat Texas A&M 41-24 (Cotton)
	2011 Outlook	Record: 8-4	Picks: Lindy's #4; Athlon #8; Steele #5
		AP #4, USA #4	Bowl: Cotton/Capital One (eligibility odds: 97%)

Assuming no major suspensions this season, LSU will be better on both offense and defense and have had great recruiting. But special teams losses limit them from advancing into our top ten.

Offense 8 RS	'10 Scoring Offense: #45 (raw) #26 (adjusted)
	'11 Projected Scoring Offense: #15

Trouble at quarterback and wide receiver may hamper but won't dislodge the new offensive coordinator's plans for a respectable passing attack.

Passing Game	'10 Passing Rank: #107 (raw) #99 (adjusted)	'10 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #34
	'11 Projected Passing Rank: #65	'11 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #44

Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee combined for under 2,000 yards last year. Jefferson played more and had 1,411 with 7 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Lee had 573, 2, and 1. Lee becomes important given Jefferson's potential law troubles stemming from a bar fight; JJ will be out the first game and perhaps more. Whether he returns or not the team is set for better pass production—new offensive coordinator Steve Kragthorpe is looking to pass a lot more—but it would help to have both experienced QBs in the fold. The receiver situation is mixed. Terrance Toliver (579 yards) is gone but Rueben Randle (254), Russell Shepard (254), and tight end DeAngelo Peterson (198) are back. Shepard, however, has his own trouble with the NCAA involving his girlfriend's embezzlement charges. The offensive line should offer better protection that last year's poor 24 sacks (out of ~300 attempts), but more attempts means more sacks in total. Lee threw for 1,873 yards three years ago so if Jefferson is out production will still go up, but he also threw 16 interceptions that year including seven pick 6's.

Rushing

'10 Rushing Rank: #29 (raw) #19 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #33

Steven Ridley had 1,147 yards and 15 TDs for LSU last season, and the #2 rusher was QB Jefferson who might be MIA this year. Even the #4 rusher, WR Shepard, is in doubt. They've got Michael Ford (244) and probable starter Spencer Ware (175) back so all is not lost, and the offensive line should get an upgrade this year as only one starter, Joseph Barksdale, leaves. Back are senior Josh Dworaczyk (though he'll miss the early season games), juniors P.J. Lonergan and Alex Hurst, and T-Bob Hebert, a senior who started half of '10 and all of '09 and may be mixed up in the barfight fiasco. Even if Hebert, Jefferson, and Shepard are all ready to go, the running game will lose a bit of steam due to more emphasis on passing and the loss of their 1,000 yard rusher.

Defense 7 RS	'10 Scoring Defense: #11 (raw) #11 (adjusted)	'10 sacks: #36	'10 picks: #9
	'11 Projected Scoring Defense: #7	'11 sacks: #31	'11 picks: #8
'10 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #27    Pass Defense  per-game: #5   Per-attempt: #11

LSU's defense got them through last year as the offense wasn't quite at an elite level, and this year the D might be even better. The defensive line loses two starters including Drake Nevis who had 6 sacks, but Kendrick Adams returns with Lavar Edwards and Sam Montgomery who together add up to a full-time starter. At linebacker they lose top tackler Kelvin Sheppard (116 tackles) but Ryan Baker (7 sacks) and Stefoin Francois are back and Karnell Hatcher moves in from safety. In addition to Hatcher the secondary loses all-purpose phenom Patrick Peterson (4 interceptions) but Morris Claiborne (5 int) and Brandon Taylor are back. Each unit arguably loses its best player but almost everyone else is back along with nearly all of the 2nd and 3rd string.

Kicking Game:  The kicking game takes a big hit this year, or rather, two hits. Derek Helton averaged a whopping 45.7 yards per punt and both he and kicker Josh Jasper (41.0 on punts, 28 of 34 field goals including 3 of 4 past the 50) are gone. Freshman Brad Wing and junior Drew Alleman will take over. Good luck, gentlemen!
Return Game:  Perhaps an even biggest set of shoes to fill belongs to Patrick Peterson, a lockdown corner who was just as good at returning kicks. He averaged 16.1 yards per punt return with two touchdowns, and 29.1 per kickoff. Receiver Rueben Randle and cornerback Ron Brooks will try to keep the magic going.

Coaching/Recruiting      2011 Recruiting Rank: #10          2010 Recruiting Rank: #5
The ever-controversial Les Miles continues to bring in great recruiting classes, which he needs to keep up with the Joneses in the SEC (where this class ranks just #6). It's not a huge class unlike last year's which had nearly 30 signees, so the "oversigning" charge isn't applicable this year. This year three recruits are among the very top in the nation: Defensive tackle Anthony Johnson, offensive tackle La'el Collins, and receiver Jarvis Landry. All are from Louisiana. Another top recruit is quarterback Zach Mettenberger who attended Butler Community College in Kansas following a stint at Georgia. He could be the Tigers' quarterback solution if Jefferson remains out and Lee can't produce.

2010 Recap 

In 2010 LSU played a lot of good teams and had a lot of close games, suggesting they play to the level of their competition, and that they can't transcend it—both hallmarks of a team that lived by defense.

And sometimes it took trick plays to put them over the top, like the fake field goal that beat Florida 33-29 and the fourth-down reverse that toppled Alabama 24-21. They needed Patrick Peterson's returns to beat North Carolina and West Virginia (30-24 and 20-14), and big time luck in a Tennessee mistake (too many men on the field after a goal-line stop) to beat the Volunteers.

But luck couldn't quite get them past Auburn and Arkansas. The first loss (24-17) ended their national title hopes and the 2nd (31-23) ended their BCS bowl hopes. But given their lack of traditional offense it's pretty amazing they achieved 10 wins against the schedule they played. That offense finally came to life in the bowl against Texas A&M, where Jordan Jefferson threw three touchdown passes to lead LSU to a 41-24 win.

LSU 2011 schedule & forecast
9/3	Sat	vs.	Oregon	23%	L
9/10	Sat	vs.	Northwestern St.	100%	W
9/17	Sat	@	*Mississippi St.	44%	L
9/24	Sat	@	West Virginia	54%	W
10/1	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	87%	W
10/8	Sat	vs.	*Florida	69%	W
10/15	Sat	@	*Tennessee	74%	W
10/22	Sat	vs.	*Auburn	70%	W
11/5	Sat	@	*Alabama	21%	L
11/12	Sat	vs.	W. Kentucky	99%	W
11/19	Sat	@	*Mississippi	88%	W
11/26	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	62%	W
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 97%

 

2011 Outlook  LSU picked the wrong game to open the season. With Jordan Jefferson and Russell Shepard out, they should have scheduled Northwestern State (5-6 in the FCS) as their opener. Instead the all-important Oregon game is first. We treat this as a home game for LSU due to the travel distance difference: 7 hours vs. 35 hours by ground, and two time zones for the Ducks, which guarantees a pro-LSU crowd. It doesn't matter much—we have the Ducks a prohibitive favorite, and this game is a big reason LSU's cumulative odds of going undefeated are less than 1/2 of 1%.

The other game that kills the undefeated dream is November 5th at Alabama. But those are the only two losses we mark for them game-by-game. Mississippi State is another probable loss since the legal issues with Jefferson and Shepard have escalated, and we're assuming both are out for four games. West Virginia will be tough, too, if that's the case.

While Florida and Arkansas are good teams, and Tennessee and Auburn are capable of upsetting the Tigers, the team should be at full strength by then. All the uncertaintly adds up to a predicted 8-4 record for LSU. Even at 10-2 they'd be 2nd in the West to Alabama, so no SEC title is likely this year. As the #3 SEC team, they'd go to the Capital One, Cotton, or Outback Bowl depending on the BCS bowl situation.

2011 Pre-Season Rankings: #13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

SportsRatings 2011 College Football Pre-season Top 120

NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH   (Independent #1)

#13	2010 Results	Record: 8-5	Strength:#31  Success:#27  Overall:#31
		AP #33, USA #36	Bowl: Beat Miami 33-17 (Sun)
	2011 Outlook	Record: 9-3	Picks: Lindy's #19; Athlon #6; Steele #7
		AP #16, USA #18	Bowl: Fiesta/Champs (eligibility odds: 99%)

The Irish have been due for a breakthrough year for a couple of seasons, and this time it really looks like it's going to happen, with about a 50/50 chance of going to a BCS bowl.

Offense 9 RS	'10 Scoring Offense: #68 (raw) #50 (adjusted)
	'11 Projected Scoring Offense: #42

Two decent quarterbacks, a key wide receiver returning, and a strong offensive line help Notre Dame's middling offense to improve.

Passing Game	'10 Passing Rank: #34 (raw) #40 (adjusted)	'10 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #28
	'11 Projected Passing Rank: #21	'11 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #15

Dayne Crist played 2/3 of the season and had 2,033 passing yards, 15 TDs, and 7 interceptions. Tommy Rees finished out the season and had 1,106 yards, 12 TDs, and 8 picks. Crist was 4-5 as a starter while Rees was 4-0 but threw the late interception that lost the Tulsa game that Crist started. The two battled for the starting job and Brian Kelly recently announced that Crist has the job. With both QBs back (backup Nate Montana transferred) the passing game gets a big upgrade. It also helps that #1 receiver Michael Flord (1,025 yards, 12 TDs) chose not to go pro and that Kelly chose not to suspend him for any game time following a DUI arrest. Also back are #2 Theo Riddick and tight end Tyler Eifert (764 yards combined). They lose #4 Kyle Rudolph but the next four targets are back. The O-line gave up a decent 20 sacks last year and that number should be smaller this season. Overall the passing game should grow in leaps and bounds this fall for the Irish.

Rushing

'10 Rushing Rank: #92 (raw) #74 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #71

The Irish running game isn't very productive and don't expect too much more this year. Though Cierre Wood (603 yards) is back, Armando Allen and Robert Hughes (814 combined) leave; Jonas Gray was #4 with 100 yards and he's back too. The offensive line should improve, however, and with it the ground attack should be at least as good as last year. Senior starters Trevor Robinson and Taylor Dever are back with junior Braxston Cave and soph Zack Martin as Chris Martin departs.

Defense 8 RS	'10 Scoring Defense: #23 (raw) #14 (adjusted)	'10 sacks: #20	'10 picks: #17
	'11 Projected Scoring Defense: #5	'11 sacks: #7	'11 picks: #18
'10 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #13    Pass Defense  per-game: #71   Per-attempt: #43

Notre Dame is going to have a defense to watch. Already among the best in sacks and rushing defense, they'll get even better as five starters return to the front seven. Two of the three defensive line starters are back; nose guard Ian Williams is gone but ends Kapron Lewis-Moore and Ethan Johnson (5 sacks). Linebacker Kerry Neal is gone but Darius Fleming (6 sacks) is back with Carlo Calabrese and #1 tackler Manti Te'o (133 tackles). The Irish pass defense was their weakness last year but only Darren Walls departs; starters Gary Gray, Zeke Motta, and Harrison Smith (7 interceptions) return. With improvement expected in every area, the Irish D should be dominant this year.

Kicking Game:  Punter Ben Turk and kicker David Ruffer are both back. Turk averaged just 38.3 yards per punt but his net was a decent 36.3. Ruffer made an excellent 18 of 19 field goals.
Return Game:  The return team is back intact, but Theo Riddick will take over on punt returns for John Goodman who averaged a paltry 1.3 yards. Bennett Jackson averaged a much more satisfactor 22.2 on kick returns.

Coaching/Recruiting      2011 Recruiting Rank: #11          2010 Recruiting Rank: #21
Brian Kelly's first year was deemed mostly a success by the end, but at its low point it appeared to be headed for failure. They were 4-5 after losing to Tulsa on a stupid play, this following the accident that killed a Notre Dame student working for the team. The turnaround started when they beat Utah, continued as they beat USC for the first time since 2001, and was sealed with the bowl win over Miami. Recruiting in Kelly's second year was better, as expected. Two of the nation's most sought-after recruits, linebacker Ishaq Williams from Brooklyn and defensive lineman Stephon Tuitt from Georgia, committed to the Irish, and another blue chip D-lineman, Aaron Lynch from Florida, impressed in the spring game.

2010 Recap 

Twice Notre Dame's season was declared a failure, but in the end the Irish showed they weren't all that bad. Thy beat Purdue but lost three straight to start 1-3. That sounds awful, but considering it was a 4-point loss to Michigan, an overtime game at 11-2 Michigan State, and a loss to 12-1 Stanford, and in retrospect it's perfectly understandable. Three straight wins, all over bowl-eligible teams, put them back over 500.

Then they had their worst game of the year, a big loss to Navy whom they once dominated annually. The Tulsa loss—a game they should have won but blew at the end—followed the accident that killed a Notre Dame student videographer. This was the low point of the season; they were 4-5 and the Kelly era was being declared worse than a disaster.

A week off helped, as did catching Utah after they were ruined by TCU. Notre Dame played their best game of the year and Utah their worst, and the 28-3 win was what the Irish needed to jump-start the season. Continuing their top-notch play they swamped Army and beat USC 20-16 at USC—their first win over the Trojans since 2001. They beat Miami in the Sun Bowl 33-17 and could easily only have had two losses on the year.

Notre Dame 2011 schedule & forecast
9/3	Sat	vs.	South Florida	83%	W
9/10	Sat	@	Michigan	75%	W
9/17	Sat	vs.	Michigan State	79%	W
9/24	Sat	@	Pittsburgh	64%	W
10/1	Sat	@	Purdue	85%	W
10/8	Sat	vs.	Air Force	73%	W
10/22	Sat	vs.	USC	64%	W
10/29	Sat	vs.	Navy	91%	W
11/5	Sat	@	Wake Forest	89%	W
11/12	Sat	@	Maryland	74%	W
11/19	Sat	vs.	Boston College	82%	W
11/26	Sat	@	Stanford	20%	L
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 99%

 

2011 Outlook  Notre Dame should finally have a real winning season—not the tepid winners they've been having the last three years since recovering from Charlie Weis' 3-9 debacle. No, this should be a year when Notre Dame is taken seriously as a national title contender, and at the very least they will be in contention for a BCS bowl game.

The Irish are favorites in every game except the final at Stanford. Some of the games should be comfortable wins (USF, Purdue, Navy, Wake Forest, BC), some look more competitive (Michigan, Michigan State, Air Force, Maryland), and a few will be tough (at Pitt, USC) but Notre Dame should win each one if everything goes to plan. They will probably lose to Stanford, however, making an undefeated season very difficult but setting up a potentially huge game if the Cardinal are in the top ten as expected.

The cumulative odds calculate a likely 9-win season out of all that, given the number of relatively close contests. There is a 1 in 3 chance of 10+ wins, a 9% chance of going 11-1, and just over a 1% chance for a 12-0 year. Splitting the difference between the cume and game-by-game and assuming the Irish go 10-2, that would probably get them to a BCS bowl. 9-3 probably puts them in the Big East #2 position, i.e. the Champs Sports Bowl, against an ACC team (Miami, or if they're sanctioned, Clemson). But even 9-3 might be enough for Notre Dame to be the preferred at-large BCS team, and they've been itching to be able to take Notre Dame since 2007.

2011 Pre-Season Rankings: #14 Ohio State Buckeyes

SportsRatings 2011 College Football Pre-season Top 120

OHIO STATE BUCKEYES   (Big Ten #2; Leaders #2)

#14	2010 Results	Record: 12-1	Strength:#7  Success:#4  Overall:#7
		AP #5, USA #5	Bowl: Beat Arkansas 31-26 (Sugar)
	2011 Outlook	Record: 9-3	Picks: Lindy's #14; Athlon #9; Steele #16
		AP #18, USA #16	Bowl: Capital One (eligibility odds: 99%)

A whole lot has changed in Columbus in the last several month, but it might not even end up knocking the Buckeyes off the top of the Big Ten.

Offense 6(3) RS	'10 Scoring Offense: #11 (raw) #11 (adjusted)
	'11 Projected Scoring Offense: #19

Losing Terrelle Pryor knocks the Buckeyes into the 2nd ten nationally, and for the first five games they'll have to do without their leading rushing and top returning receiver. Ohio State's offense ranks #46 until they get those key players back.

Passing Game	'10 Passing Rank: #54 (raw) #58 (adjusted)	'10 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #57
	'11 Projected Passing Rank: #87	'11 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #62

With Terrelle Pryor (2,772 yards, 27 TDs, 11 int), Ohio State was a pre-season top ten team; without him they fall to the second ten. The question went from "who will start the first five games?" to "who is the new starting quarterback?" and the answer is probably Joe Bauserman, who had 174 passing yards (2 TDs, 1 int) last year, though newcomer Braxton Miller is still in the running. Bauserman is 26 years old and a senior, things that should help him as he's thrust into the limelight. He has most of last year's targets to look for—or at least, he will after the first five games. #2 receiver DeVier Posey (848 yards, 7 TDs) and Dan Herron (180 yards) are both gone until game six, leaving tight end Jake Stoneburner (#3 w/222 yards) the top receiver until then. #1 Dane Sanzenbacher (948 yards, 11 TDs) and #4 Brandon Saine (195) were departing regardless of the scandal. Not only does the new quarterback have to deal with a lack of receivers early, but also one of the three returning starters on the O-line is gone for the first five games, too. For the early season games we have Ohio State's pass ranking at an abysmal #111.

Rushing

'10 Rushing Rank: #14 (raw) #13 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #13

Dan "Boom" Herron rushed for 1,155 yards and 16 touchdowns last year but as mentioned is out for the first five games. QB Pryor was 2nd with 754, and since he's gone along with #3 Brandon Saine (337), Ohio State's total rushing yardage this year will take a dive. Jaamal Berry (266 yards, 8.3 average) and Jordan Hall (161) look to pick up the slack for the first five games, and redshirt freshman Rod Smith could be in front of both of them. The offensive line is in good shape from mid-season on, with Mike Brewster, J.B. Shugarts, and Mike Adams back. Bryant Browning and Justin Boren are gone, and so is Adams for the first five. In the early part of the season without Herron and Adams the Buckeyes aren't even a top 25 rushing team, but they'll recover after that. Herron will need a heck of a performance to top 1,000 again given only 7 games (8 with a bowl game), as he misses the early games (among them Marshall and Eastern Michigan) so necessary to pumping up a running back's numbers. The #13 ranking doesn't mean they'll match last year's total, but that by the 2nd half of the season they could be producing at about the same rate, per-game, as last season.

Defense 4 RS	'10 Scoring Defense: #5 (raw) #5 (adjusted)	'10 sacks: #57	'10 picks: #21
	'11 Projected Scoring Defense: #11	'11 sacks: #63	'11 picks: #31
'10 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #1    Pass Defense  per-game: #9   Per-attempt: #4

The defense doesn't take nearly the hit that the offense does, which will really help the team get through the early games, most of which the defense can win on its own.

Ohio State's rushing defense was the best in the country last year after correcting for their opponents' running game. Two starters return on the offensive line, Nathan Williams and John Simon, but they also lose two starters, Cameron Heyward who had 9.5 tackles for loss and Dexter Larimore; backup Solomon Thomas is also one of the players gone the first five games. The rush defense might not be #1 this season but should remain very strong as it's been the last several years. Only one of three linebackers returns: Andrew Sweat. Gone are #1 tackler Brian Rolle (9 tackles for loss) and #2 Ross Homan. The secondary was great last year but is much weaker as Chimdi Chekwa (9 pass breakups), Jermale Hines, and Devon Torrance (8 pass breakups) are all gone. Orhian Johnson is the team's leading returning tackler with 50 stops. The Buckeye defense loses 7 starters and its top four tacklers and can no longer be considered a top ten defense at this time. But it's not too far off and the vast majority of the 2nd and 3rd string return.

Kicking Game:  Punter Ben Buchanan (41 yard average) is back but kicker Devin Barclay (20 of 24 field goals made) is gone, with sophomore Drew Basil set to replace him.
Return Game:  Running backs Jordan Hall and Jamaal Berry handled returns last year and both are back. Berry averaged 25.4 yards on kickoffs while Hall had a 27.9 average and one touchdown, and averaged 9.9 yards per punt return.

Coaching/Recruiting      2011 Recruiting Rank: #14          2010 Recruiting Rank: #27
Jim Tressel stepped down from Ohio State after 10 seasons due to the tattoo-for-peraphernalia scandal, as Ohio State vacated all wins from last year. Luke Fickell, former defensive coordinator, was elevated once again from 5-game interim head coach to 2011 interim head coach. All the scandal and turmoil didn't affect recruiting that much, though most of the class was signed before Tressel left in the summer. The 2011 class is again #1 in the Big Ten and strong that last year's relatively small class. QB Braxton Miller is among the top recruits and may even start this year. Curtis Miller is a consensus 5-star and perhaps the nation's top linebacker prospect. The 2012 class may start to see the effects of the chaos, as the Buckeyes lost a top commit, Kyle Kalis, to Michigan.

2010 Recap 

Ohio State didn't build a great résumé as an elite team last year despite finishing 12-1. They faced only one top 25 team during the regular season and lost that game to Wisconsin; they didn't play Michigan State. Victims Miami, Iowa, and Penn State didn't live up to pre-season hype. In all, though the Buckeyes beat six bowl teams during the regular season, those were all 7-5 except for 6-6 Illinois and 8-4 Ohio. Worse, four of the six lost their bowls, with Miami, Ohio, and Michigan getting blown out.

But regardless of how their opponents fared Ohio State beat them badly enough to rank among the elite in the Strength Power Rating. Their first six games were amazingly consistent in performance. There was just a slight dip in the game they lost on the road to Wisconsin, two games where they took out their frustrations against Purdue and Minnesota, and back to the average again for the last three wins.

Ohio State did very well at home but struggled in 3 of their 4 road games, looking tepid against Illinois (24-13), losing to the Badgers, and needing a late drive to beat Iowa 20-17. In the Sugar Bowl they stormed to a big lead but almost lost, needing a late interception to seal the 31-26 win. In the end they officially vacated all their wins for the season, but we all know they went 12-1.

OSU 2011 schedule & forecast
9/3	Sat	vs.	Akron	99%	W
9/10	Sat	vs.	Toledo	87%	W
9/17	Sat	@	Miami FL	58%	W
9/24	Sat	vs.	Colorado	85%	W
10/1	Sat	vs.	*Michigan State	68%	W
10/8	Sat	@	*Nebraska	54%	W
10/15	Sat	@	*Illinois	60%	W
10/29	Sat	vs.	*Wisconsin	49%	L
11/5	Sat	vs.	*Indiana	98%	W
11/12	Sat	@	*Purdue	85%	W
11/19	Sat	vs.	*Penn State	82%	W
11/26	Sat	@	*Michigan	73%	W
Straight up: 11-1  Cume: 9-3  Bowl eligible: 99%

 

2011 Outlook  Despite all the problems Ohio State has faced the last eight months, the loss of Pryor, and the players suspended for the first five games, we still make the Buckeyes the favorite in nearly every game, putting them at 11-1 or 12-0 for the year when looked at game-by-game, depending on how the Wisconsin game is looking.

In the first five games where the team is depleted there aren't too many challenges. The first two should be easy wins, as should Colorado and they get Michigan State at home. Miami on the road is a very close call but that's assuming the 'Canes are at full strength, and that probably won't be true as their own suspensions become known [and the game's odds have been adjusted for what we know now, which is that the canes will still be missing several players]. After that the main threats are Nebraska, by which time the suspended Buckeyes are back, and Wisconsin, whom they also get to play in Columbus. Add in Illinois and this is the team's toughest stretch. The rest of the year should be of only moderate challenge.

Add up all those close games, though, and you get a different picture. The Buckeyes can expect to lose three games in all, and going 12-0 is just a 2% likelihood. An undefeated record would obviously give them the Big Ten Leaders division crown and they'd face Nebraska for the Big Ten title; win that, and it's on to the national championship. But Ohio State is almost certainly not good enough to win every game. Their expected win value puts them 2nd in the Leaders.

As long as they don't lose two Big Ten games they will win their division if they can beat Wisconsin. So a BCS bowl game is a very realistic goal. If not that, then they'll probably be in the Capital One Bowl against a top SEC team such as South Carolina or LSU.

2011 Pre-Season Rankings: #15 Arkansas Razorbacks

SportsRatings 2011 College Football Pre-season Top 120

ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS   (SEC #4; West #3)

#15	2010 Results	Record: 10-3	Strength:#11  Success:#14  Overall:#12
		AP #12, USA #12	Bowl: Lost to Ohio St. 31-26 (Sugar)
	2011 Outlook	Record: 8-4	Picks: Lindy's #10; Athlon #16; Steele #8
		AP #15, USA #14	Bowl: Cotton Bowl (eligibility odds: 98%)

Even without their start quarterback and running back from last year, the Razorbacks will still be good. But probably not good enough to win the SEC, nor even the tough SEC West.

Offense 5 RS	'10 Scoring Offense: #71 (raw) #9 (adjusted)
	'11 Projected Scoring Offense: #21

Arkansas knew they'd be without Ryan Mallett this season but the loss of Knile Davis is another big blow to the offense.

Passing Game	'10 Passing Rank: #4 (raw) #3 (adjusted)	'10 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #69
	'11 Projected Passing Rank: #7	'11 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #88

It was no surprise when Bobby Petrino recently named Tyler Wilson the new starting quarterback; after all, when he had to replace Ryan Mallett against Auburn he threw for 332 yards and 4 touchdowns. For the year he completed 68% of his attempts for 453 yards, 4 TDs and 3 interceptions. Mallett's 3,869 yards and 32 touchdowns won't easily be replaced, but most of Arkansas' top receivers return. Back are Joe Adams (813 yds, 6 TDs), Jarius Wright (788 yds, 5 TDs), Greg Childs (659, 6), and Cobi Hamilton (630, 6). Tight end D.J. Williams (627, 4) is gone but that's it of the top targets. Protection could be down as only two starters on the line return, so Wilson will need to find his targets quickly. You would have to expect some decline from Mallett but the passing game should still be quite potent.

Rushing

'10 Rushing Rank: #69 (raw) #38 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #61

With the entire crew returning, the rushing game was expected to pick up some of the slack as Mallett departed. When #2 rusher Broderick Green (365 yards) tore his acl, improvement in the running game was put in doubt. But when Knile Davis (1,322 yards, 13 TDs) hurt his ankle and was lost for the season, it had a bigger effect, knocking the rushing game outlook down to average, and bringing the offense down about 10 ranking spots, and knocking the team down several spots in our rankings. They still have Ronnie Wingo who had 253 yards last year with a 6.2 yard per carry average. The offensive line also dropped a notch due to unexpected personnel loss. DeMarcus Love, Wade Greyson, and Ray Dominguez were expected losses, but Seth Oxner who started in 2009 transferred to Arkansas Monticello, leaving two sophomores—Travis Swanson and Alvin Bailey—as the lone returning starters on the line. Wingo will do well as the feature back but the outlook is considerably less bright for the ground game than it was not long ago.

Defense 7 RS	'10 Scoring Defense: #47 (raw) #38 (adjusted)	'10 sacks: #21	'10 picks: #37
	'11 Projected Scoring Defense: #23	'11 sacks: #8	'11 picks: #33
'10 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #41    Pass Defense  per-game: #22   Per-attempt: #30

The Arkansas defensive line should be much stronger this year. Demario Ambrose departs but starters Jake Bequette (7 sacks), DeQuinta Jones, and Alfred Davis are back with part-time starter Bryan Jones, and they get 2009 starter Zach Stadther back, too. Senior linebackers Jerico Nelson (8.5 tackles for loss) and #1 tackler Jerry Franklin (100 tackles, 6.5 sacks) return as Anthonly Leon (10 tackles for loss) departs. The secondary loses two starters but Isaac Madison and Tramaine Thomas (4 interceptions) return. Overall the defense should be much stronger this year.

Kicking Game:  Both punter Dylan Breeding (42.5 yard average) and kicker Zach Hocker (16 of 19 field goals) are back for the Razorbacks.
Return Game:  Joe Adams had one punt return touchdown while averaging 15.6 yards. Dennis Johnson will take over on kickoffs for Lance Ray (22.5 average) who transferred.

Coaching/Recruiting      2011 Recruiting Rank: #15          2010 Recruiting Rank: #35
Bobby Petrino's 4th recruiting class is an excellent one, his best yet with the Razorbacks. Juco Robert Thomas will help make the defensive line even better, and freshman Brey Cook is one of the top offensive line prospects in the country.

2010 Recap 

Arkansas' push for a season to remember culminated in the Alabama game, where they came up just short after Mallett threw a few late interceptions. The Razorbacks edged Texas A&M and got into a shootout with Auburn where they couldn't keep up. At 4-2, they appeared destined to be relegated to a lower-rung SEC bowl. But things improved. The running game came along and the offense got even better, helping them roll over Ole Miss, Vandy, South Carolina, and UTEP and Arkansas was back in BCS bowl contention. The defense did just enough to secure wins against Mississippi State and LSU, and along with Alabama's loss to Auburn, the Razorbacks were first in line for the Sugar Bowl. They fell behind but rallied to almost beat Ohio State, but again Mallett was intercepted and they lost 31-26.

Arkansas 2011 schedule & forecast
9/3	Sat	vs.	Missouri State	99%	W
9/10	Sat	vs.	New Mexico	99%	W
9/17	Sat	vs.	Troy	96%	W
9/24	Sat	@	*Alabama	18%	L
10/1	Sat	N	Texas A&M	42%	L
10/8	Sat	vs.	*Auburn	65%	W
10/22	Sat	@	*Mississippi	86%	W
10/29	Sat	@	*Vanderbilt	85%	W
11/5	Sat	vs.	*South Carolina	50%	L
11/12	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	82%	W
11/19	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi St.	63%	W
11/26	Sat	@	*LSU	38%	L
Straight up: 8-4  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 98%

 

2011 Outlook  Arkansas should have no trouble going 3-0 in three early home games, particularly since Missouri State's quarterback was suspended for the game. New Mexico will only be a touch tougher and while Troy has defeated BCS schools before, it probably won't happen this time.

Then come games at Alabama and the designated neutral field in Arlington for Texas A&M. After those, Arkansas will know whether they have a shot at a national title. The rest of the way is fairly smooth sailing, in theory, with speedbumps against South Carolina and LSU. The SC game is an extremely close call. Game-by-game and by cumulative odds, that suggests an 8-4 season for the Razorbacks.

If the Razorbacks finish as the 4th most attractive SEC bowl option, they'll be headed to the Cotton or Outback Bowl. Assuming the SEC has two BCS teams, then they move up a bowl, but even so Arkansas heads back to Arlington for the Cotton Bowl against the Big Twelve's #2 team which is...Texas A&M. That doesn't really work does it? No, not really. So they'll get Oklahoma State instead, or Arkansas will go elsewhere.

2011 Pre-Season Rankings: #16 California Golden Bears

SportsRatings 2011 College Football Pre-season Top 120

CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS   (Pac-12 #3; North #3)

#16	2010 Results	Record: 5-7	Strength:#23  Success:#69  Overall:#28
		AP, USA unranked	Bowl: None
	2011 Outlook	Record: 8-4	Picks: Lindy's #55; Athlon #54; Steele #42
		AP NR, USA NR	Bowl: Holiday (eligibility odds: 93%)

Here is perhaps our biggest discrepancy with the rest of the prognostication world: our call for Cal to be a very good team in 2011. The Bears don't return a huge number of starters but they were underrated last season and underachieved while playing very erratically.

Offense 6 RS	'10 Scoring Offense: #73 (raw) #43 (adjusted)
	'11 Projected Scoring Offense: #30

Buffalo transfer Zach Maynard helps offset Kevin Riley's departure, but the running game is weaker without Shane Vereen.

Passing Game	'10 Passing Rank: #94 (raw) #89 (adjusted)	'10 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #31
	'11 Projected Passing Rank: #80	'11 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #36

Kevin Riley and Brock Mansion combined for just 2,055 yards last year, hardly the kind of output Jeff Tedford is looking for from his quarterbacks. Riley departs, Mansion (49% completions, 646 yards, 2 TDs, 5 int) remains, which would be bad news if he's all Cal had. But transfer Zach Maynard is now eligible; Maynard had 2,696 yards and 18 TDs at Buffalo two years ago and should take over the starting role with Mansion the backup. Top receivers Marvin Jones (765 yards) and Keenan Allen (490) are back along with starting tight end Anthony Miller (152). Maynard should throw for more yards than Riley and Mansion did together last year, which isn't really saying that much.

Rushing

'10 Rushing Rank: #52 (raw) #48 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #58

Shane Vereen was the offense's workhorse last season, racking up 1,167 yards and 13 touchdowns. Without him, they're left with Isi Sofele who had 338 yards and receivers Keenan Allen and Marvin Jones (230 combined). QB Maynard netted 300 yards at Buffalo in '09 and Covaughn DeBoskie-Johnson had 211 in '09 (70 last year). The offensive line loses Chris Guarnero and Donovan Edwards while Mitchell Schwartz, Brian Schwenke, and Justin Cheadle are back. The combined yardage for the running backs and quarterbacks shouldn't be too far off last year's totals.

Defense 5 RS	'10 Scoring Defense: #40 (raw) #13 (adjusted)	'10 sacks: #4	'10 picks: #50
	'11 Projected Scoring Defense: #15	'11 sacks: #4	'11 picks: #59
'10 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #21    Pass Defense  per-game: #7   Per-attempt: #8

Cal's defense was very underrated last year. They gave up a lot of points because they played in the Pac-10 which had the highest-scoring teams in the country. Both the rush and pass defense were very good.

This year's model might lose a bit on the rushing defense portion. Just one starter—Ernest Owusu—returns to the front three, and Cameron Jordan (5.5 sacks) is one of those lost. The linebackers are in pretty good shape as Mychal Kendricks (8.5 sacks) and D.J. Holt return, but they do lose #1 tackler Mike Mohamed. In the secondary Chris Conte and Darian Hagan are gone but Marc Anthony and Josh Hill return with half-time starter Sean Cattouse; they combined for 20 pass breakups last year. Overall the defense slips a bit as they lose their top player in each unit.

Kicking Game:  Punter Bryan Anger had one of the top averages in the country (45.6 yards) last year (38.5 net). He's back, as is kicker Giorgio Tavecchio who made 11 of 16 FG attemps; he's got distance but has accuracy issues.
Return Game:  The Bears lose punt returner Jeremy Ross, who averaged 12.7 per return; Keenan Allen, who averaged 22.6 yards on kickoff returns, may take over on punts while WR Coleman Edmund and RB Sofele (19.4 ave) handled kickoffs.

Coaching/Recruiting      2011 Recruiting Rank: #17          2010 Recruiting Rank: #44
After 8 bowl seasons in a row Jeff Tedford had his first losing year as Cal's coach. This year's recruiting class is pretty darn good, too, placing about 3rd in the Pac-12. Viliami Moala from Sacramento is one of the nation's highest-rated defensive linemen, and there are a half-dozen other consensus blue-chips in the class.

2010 Recap  How does Cal rate so high by our method? They return a standard amount of starters, and even lose some key players. They do have a good recruiting class which helps, and they get a transfer quarterback that offsets the loss of last year's starter. But none of that should put a 5-7 team in the top 25—unless that 5-7 team was already at top 25 level.

Cal finished #25 in last year's final power rating; their rating is an average of all their performances, which ranged from #1 worthy to bottom 25 level. Their top performances were beating Colorado 52-7 and Arizona State 50-17. Close losses to Arizona (10-9 on the road) and Oregon 15-13 actually boosted their rating. On the other hand when they fell to USC 48-14 and Oregon State 35-7 it dragged them down, naturally. But their 20-13 win over Washington State lowered their rating as well.

Ultimately Cal averaged out to a very good team with a HUGE standard deviation in their performance, usually blowing out good teams at home but losing to bad ones on the road. They lost a number of close games, too, such as the final game to Washington 16-13, which kept them out of a bowl game.

Cal 2011 schedule & forecast
9/3	Sat	vs.	Fresno State	92%	W
9/10	Sat	@	Colorado	80%	W
9/17	Sat	vs.	Presbyterian	100%	W
9/24	Sat	@	*Washington	61%	W
10/6	Thu	@	*Oregon	11%	L
10/13	Thu	vs.	*USC	59%	W
10/22	Sat	vs.	*Utah	75%	W
10/29	Sat	@	*UCLA	59%	W
11/5	Sat	vs.	*Washington St.	86%	W
11/12	Sat	vs.	*Oregon State	67%	W
11/19	Sat	@	*Stanford	16%	L
11/26	Sat	@	*Arizona State	52%	W
Straight up: 10-2  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 93%

 

2011 Outlook  We wrote about Cal's home/road schizm last season before the Oregon game where we predicted a very close loss for the Bears (they fell 15-13). This year as Phil Steele points out they play all their home games temporarily in San Francisco while stadium renovations are done on the Berkeley campus. Does this mean their home field advantage will suffer?

First, I doubt the level of schizm we saw last year will exist this season, and second, the reduction in home field advantage should be very minimal. They're still playing far closer to home than their opponents, will have the crowd and everything else associated with the home advantage except perhaps the concept of "ownership." We don't dock Cal's home field advantage in these predictions.

What the predictions do assume is a level of consistence that Cal never came close to having last year. We use a normal distribution to convert from a point spread to a percentage, and Cal's distribution last year was anything but normal. If they do find consistency, here's what to expect: a winning season and a return to a bowl game. And, at the end of the year, a chance to go 11-1 if they can win their last two.

We have them losing at least one, however, and finishing 10-2 or 9-3. The cumulative odds—probably a better way to handle Cal—show 8-4, and perilously close to 7-5. But in most cases, a bowl game. If they really end up the Pac-12 #3 they'll go to the Holiday Bowl, perhaps facing Texas, another team that went 5-7 last year and should have a good turnaround.

2011 Pre-Season Rankings: #17 Southern Cal Trojans

SportsRatings 2011 College Football Pre-season Top 120

SOUTHERN CAL TROJANS   (Pac-12 #4; South #1)

#17	2010 Results	Record: 8-5	Strength:#17  Success:#34  Overall:#21
		AP, USA unranked	Bowl: None (ineligible)
	2011 Outlook	Record: 7-5	Picks: Lindy's #27; Athlon #20; Steele #17
		AP #25, USA n/e	Bowl: None (ineligible)

This Trojan team won't be too much different than last year's in quality or in results.

Offense 6 RS	'10 Scoring Offense: #37 (raw) #14 (adjusted)
	'11 Projected Scoring Offense: #24

Matt Barkley is back but many important receivers, running backs, and offensive linemen aren't.

Passing Game	'10 Passing Rank: #41 (raw) #33 (adjusted)	'10 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #11
	'11 Projected Passing Rank: #43	'11 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #18

It seems like just yesterday when Matt Barkley was a true freshman taking over at USC. His freshman and sophomore yardages were about the same (around 2,750) but as a soph he dramatically improved his TD:int ratio, mostly by adding more touchdowns (TDs went from 15 to 26, INTs from 14 to 12). As a junior he'll be even better, but his supporting cast in the passing game might not. First, quality backup Mitch Mustain (348 yards last year) leaves. Second, a number of good receivers depart. Robert Woods (792 yards) is back but Ronald Johnson (692 yards, 8 TDs) is gone along with fullback Stanley Havili and David Ausberry (648 combined). Four others who had over 100 yards are returning, including starting tight end Rhett Ellison and Brice Butler who at one time said he was going to transfer. Thirdly, the offensive line loses three starters. Overall production could fall a bit and Barkley's totals might be about the same as the last two years as he has just 12 games instead of 13.

Rushing

'10 Rushing Rank: #25 (raw) #22 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #32

The running back by committee approach that has dominated USC's backfield loses several of its stalwarts. Gone are Allen Bradford, C.J. Gable, and fullback Stanley Havili, who have racked up thousands of yards over the years and combined for 1,213 in 2010. Mary Tyler led last season with 913 (9 TDs) and he returns along with Dillon Baxter (252). The offensive line loses some multi-year starters, too, as Kristofer O'Dowd, Butch Lewis, and Tyron Smith depart. Khaled Holmes and Matt Kalil, both juniors, are back. With a weaker backfield and weaker line, expect rushing yardage to decline but not much as USC always has a strong running game.

Defense 7 RS	'10 Scoring Defense: #61 (raw) #30 (adjusted)	'10 sacks: #34	'10 picks: #23
	'11 Projected Scoring Defense: #26	'11 sacks: #30	'11 picks: #17
'10 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #39    Pass Defense  per-game: #68   Per-attempt: #45

USC's defensive line loses just one starter, but that is sacks leader (4.5) Jurrell Casey. Nick Perry, Armond Armstead, and DaJohn Harris combined for 10.5 sacks and all return. The Trojans lose two of last year's three starting linebackers, however, though both Devon Kennard and Chris Galippo started the majority of games. The secondary loses Shareece Wright (10 pass breakups) but T.J. McDonald (#1 tackler), Jawanza Starling, and Nickell Robey (4 interceptions) are back. All in all about the same as last year, which means still good, but still giving up a lot of points in the Pac-12 conference.

Kicking Game:  The Trojans must replace both punter Jacob Hartman (41.1 average) and kicker Joe Houston (10 of 16 field goals). Two true freshmen, Kris Albarado and Andre Heidari, are set to take over.
Return Game:  The Trojans had two touchdowns on kick returns last year. One was by Robert Woods on a kickoff; he averaged 25.6 yards per return and he's back. Departing receiver Ronald Johnson (14.2 average) had the other one on a punt. RB Curtis McNeal will take over that slot.

Coaching/Recruiting      2011 Recruiting Rank: #2          2010 Recruiting Rank: #9
Due to NCAA sanctions, USC will be limited on their roster and recruiting over the next several year. There has also been an exodus of players the last few years to escape the sanctions. So what did Lane Kiffin do? He went shopping to stock up for the lean times, bringing in 30 recruits to bring the roster numbers up. And of course the level of quality of the recruits was astonishing for such a large class, making USC's 2011 class our #2 class. Wide receiver George Farmer is probably the #1 receiver in the nation for 2011, and about a dozen other players in the class are also consensus blue chips. Kiffin leaves a lot to be desired in some areas, but as a recruiter he's doing his job well.

2010 Recap  USC's 2010 season went almost as we had predicted: four early wins and then the losses started mounting. First they were close, like Washington (32-31) and Stanford (37-35), but then Oregon romped, 53-32. The worst was losing 36-7 to Oregon State, and Notre Dame finally beat the Trojans for the first time since 2001. The UCLA win was their 13th game and had to serve as their bowl.

USC 2011 schedule & forecast
9/3	Sat	vs.	Minnesota	88%	W
9/10	Sat	vs.	*Utah	74%	W
9/17	Sat	vs.	Syracuse	89%	W
9/24	Sat	@	*Arizona State	51%	W
10/1	Sat	vs.	*Arizona	69%	W
10/13	Thu	@	*California	41%	L
10/22	Sat	@	Notre Dame	36%	L
10/29	Sat	vs.	*Stanford	26%	L
11/5	Sat	@	*Colorado	79%	W
11/12	Sat	vs.	*Washington	73%	W
11/19	Sat	@	*Oregon	10%	L
11/26	Sat	vs.	*UCLA	71%	W
Straight up: 8-4  Cume: 7-5  Bowl eligible: 86%*

 

2011 Outlook  USC will be a better team this year but that doesn't mean they'll have a better result than 2010. Early wins are expected again as the first three games are at home. If they can get past ASU in Tempe they could start 5-0, and with a little more luck they'll go into Notre Dame 6-0.

But they'll probably lose at least one of those two, as well as Notre Dame and Stanford the following week. The Trojans should handle Colorado and Washington, but not Oregon on the road, before beating UCLA once again. That puts them 7-5 and the cumulative projection agrees. Their seven wins are pretty solid so 8-4 and 9-3 aren't far-fetched. They'd almost certainly be bowl-eligible if they could be, but they can't so they won't. Saves us the trouble of having to figure out where they might go.

2011 Pre-Season Rankings: #18 Missouri Tigers

SportsRatings 2011 College Football Pre-season Top 120

MISSOURI TIGERS   (Big Twelve #4)

#18	2010 Results	Record: 10-3	Strength:#18  Success:#12  Overall:#15
		AP #18, USA #18	Bowl: Lost to Iowa 27-24 (Insight)
	2011 Outlook	Record: 8-4	Picks: Lindy's #23; Athlon #25; Steele #28
		AP #21, USA #21	Bowl: Insight (eligibility odds: 98%)

Quarterback is basically the only position that the Tigers don't have returning talent at. If they find an answer there, they'll be better than they were last year.

Offense 8 RS	'10 Scoring Offense: #43 (raw) #39 (adjusted)
	'11 Projected Scoring Offense: #34

Missouri loses Blaine Gabbert, but they've got all their receivers and running backs from last year and a still-solid offensive line.

Passing Game	'10 Passing Rank: #38 (raw) #38 (adjusted)	'10 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #43
	'11 Projected Passing Rank: #35	'11 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #51

All Missouri needs is a quarterback and everything will be fine. Blaine Gabbert actually had lower stats in 2010, throwing for 3,186 yards with 16 TDs and 9 interceptions. The year before he had nearly 3,600 yards and 24 TDs, back when he had Danario Alexander (1,781 yards, 14 TDs). Without Alexander, Gabbert wasn't nearly as good suggesting to me that he is just a touch overrated and therefore easier to replace in Missouri's system than most would think. Blaine's brother Tyler tried out for the job, didn't get it and transferred (to Louisville, which he has already left). James Franklin (106 yards 1 TD last year) looks like the new starter, and he did complete 79% last year (of 14 attempts) despite being used as a wildcat QB. Everyone who caught a pass is back, including T.J. Moe (1,045 yards), tight end Michael Egnew (762), Jerrell Jackson (656), and Wes Kemp (420). The offensive line protected Gabbert very well last year save for a couple of aberrant games (6 sacks by Nebraska, 4 by Kansas) and should do so again for Franklin. Our calculations don't show a rise in passing yards but the Tigers move up a couple ranking spots. If Missouri opts to pass as much, with luck Franklin could approach Gabbert's 2010 numbers.

Rushing

'10 Rushing Rank: #57 (raw) #55 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #50

Missouri didn't have a big-name rusher last year but De'Vion Moore, Henry Joseph, and Kendial Lawrence combined for 1,376 yards and 17 touchdowns and all are back. QB Gabbert added 232 net which Franklin should surpass as he has good running ability (116 yards, 5.0 yard average on 23 rushes). Marcus Murphy had 181 but he needed shoulder surgery and redshirted. The offensive line returns three starters, all seniors: Austin Wuebbels, Jayson Palmgren, and Dan Hoch. Another senior, Elvis Fisher, ruptured his patella in fall camp and will miss the season. They also lose center Tim Barnes. Without Fisher the line probably won't be better than last year but the rushing numbers should still improve with the three top runners available and a true running QB.

Defense 6 RS	'10 Scoring Defense: #6 (raw) #8 (adjusted)	'10 sacks: #15	'10 picks: #15
	'11 Projected Scoring Defense: #6	'11 sacks: #12	'11 picks: #35
'10 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #65    Pass Defense  per-game: #21   Per-attempt: #18

Missouri had a top ten defense last year, but they gave up a lot of yards to teams that could run the ball. This year the rushing D should be much more stout with three starters back on the defensive line. Though they lose Aldon Smith (5.5 sacks), seniors Jacquies Smith (5.5 sacks), Terrell Resonno, and Dominique Hamilton are all back. Backup Brad Madison led the team in sacks with 7.5 and joins the starting lineup. At linebacker Will Ebner returns with #1 tackler Zaviar Gooden while Andrew Gachkar departs. The secondary loses three starters, however, returning only Kenji Jackson. It looks like teams will pass on the Tigers a bit more this year, but the defense as a whole seems every bit as good.

Kicking Game:  Punter Matt Grabner (42.6 average) is gone and former walk-on Trey Barrow will be his replacement; he handled kickoffs last year. Placekicker Grant Ressel made 17 of 19 field goal attempts and is back this year.
Return Game:  Departing corner Carl Gettis averaged 6.1 yards per punt return last year, and fellow CB Kip Edwards might be his replacement. Marcus Murphy handled kickoffs last year with a 19.8 average and due to his injury they'll need a replacement there, too. Gahn McGaffie had one touchdown return on a kickoff in three attempts last year so he'd be a good candidate.

Coaching/Recruiting      2011 Recruiting Rank: #68          2010 Recruiting Rank: #19
This year's recruiting class isn't nearly as good as last year's, partly because it's quite a bit smaller and also because a few of the bigger names (Brandon Hannah and Gerrand Johnson) transferred. Despite ranking near the bottom of the Big Twelve, the class boasts mega-blue chip Sheldon Richardson, a defensive tackle from California who was finally cleared to practice a few weeks ago.

2010 Recap 

In the last several seasons Missouri has been known for their offense, but in 2010—despite a 10-2 record—the offense took several games off. In wins over Illinois, San Diego State, Colorado, and Iowa State, the offense was pedestrian (23, 27, 26, and 14 points), and lack of production lost the game to Texas Tech 24-17. On the other hand, the defense rose to the occasion and won all four of those games mentioned holding the opponent to 13, 24, and 0 twice and was instrumental in the Texas A&M (30-9) and Oklahoma (36-27) wins, the Tigers' two best moments. They recorded two shutouts in Big Twelve play and held teams under 20 on five other occasions. Against Iowa the defense was solid but their weakness—rush defense—cost them as Iowa's Marcus Coker rushed for 219 yards. The offense made mistakes too including two key interceptions and Missouri lost 27-24.

Missouri 2011 schedule & forecast
9/3	Sat	vs.	Miami OH	91%	W
9/10	Sat	@	Arizona State	51%	W
9/17	Sat	vs.	W. Illinois	95%	W
9/24	Sat	@	*Oklahoma	26%	L
10/8	Sat	@	*Kansas State	72%	W
10/15	Sat	vs.	*Iowa State	88%	W
10/22	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma State	45%	L
10/29	Sat	@	*Texas A&M	31%	L
11/5	Sat	@	*Baylor	78%	W
11/12	Sat	vs.	*Texas	73%	W
11/19	Sat	vs.	*Texas Tech	87%	W
11/26	Sat	@	*Kansas	93%	W
Straight up: 9-3  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 98%

 

2011 Outlook  Missouri's first test is their road trip to Arizona State. With the Sun Devils still weakened from off-season injuries, the Tigers have a real chance, but conversely the new quarterback will only have one start under his belt.

The rest of the season looks pretty well mapped out. The Tigers have a chance to beat Oklahoma State playing at home, but they probably lose that one as well as Oklahoma and Texas A&M on the road. They should win the rest including the four at the end of the year and go either 9-3—if they beat ASU—or 8-4. The latter is what the cumulative odds suggest anyway, so maybe that's more realistic given the change in experience going from Gabbert to Franklin. Still, lots of potential for this team, even though they'll probably end up in the same bowl as last year, maybe against Illinois this time instead of Iowa.

2011 Pre-Season Rankings: #19 Mississippi State Bulldogs

SportsRatings 2011 College Football Pre-season Top 120

MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS   (SEC #5; West #4)

#19	2010 Results	Record: 9-4	Strength:#25  Success:#28  Overall:#26
		AP #15, USA #17	Bowl: Beat Michigan 52-14 (Gator)
	2011 Outlook	Record: 8-4	Picks: Lindy's #21; Athlon #27; Steele #25
		AP #20, USA #20	Bowl: Chik-fil-A (eligibility odds: 96%)

Mississippi State may be a top 25 team but they're fighting for respect in the rough SEC West.

Offense 8 RS	'10 Scoring Offense: #48 (raw) #54 (adjusted)
	'11 Projected Scoring Offense: #39

The Bulldogs have their quarterbacks, running backs, and receivers back.

Passing Game	'10 Passing Rank: #86 (raw) #88 (adjusted)	'10 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #50
	'11 Projected Passing Rank: #70	'11 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #49

Chris Relf and Tyler Russell battled for the starting job into the 2010 season. They had nearly identical completion percentages (58%+) but Relf got the lion's share of play and had 1,789 yards to Russell's 635. He also had a much better ratio, 13:6 to Russell's 5:6. Topping it off, he can run the ball. With both players back the Bulldogs hope for less anemic totals, and they have nearly all their receivers back to help. Chad Bumphis led with 634 yards, and four other players had over 200 including starters Arceto Clark (362) and Chris Smith (264). Tight end Marcus Green should be more productive in his senior year, too; he had just 36 yards last season (306 in '09). The offensive line does give up quite a few sacks (24) given the low number of pass attempts, but it shouldn't get any worse and with all the other components in place the passing game should be substantially improved.

Rushing

'10 Rushing Rank: #16 (raw) #16 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #9

Mississippi State's offense is based on the run and it shows in their stats, where they were in the top 20 nationally. They should aim to push that into the top 10 given the returning talent in the backfield. Vick Ballard had 968 yards and an amazing 19 touchdowns last year. QB Relf had a solid 713 despite over 150 sacks yards. LaDarius Perkins added 566 and Robert Elliot 221. All return for '11. The offensive line should be of roughly the same quality this year; they lose Derek Sherrod and J.C. Brignone but Quentin Saulsberry, Addison Lawrence, and Gabe Jackson are back. Ballard should hit the 1,000 yard mark this year and Relf could too, if he runs as much as last year and you don't count sack yardage against him.

Defense 7 RS	'10 Scoring Defense: #21 (raw) #9 (adjusted)	'10 sacks: #51	'10 picks: #30
	'11 Projected Scoring Defense: #8	'11 sacks: #59	'11 picks: #31
'10 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #4    Pass Defense  per-game: #53   Per-attempt: #19

Mississippi State's defense is what made the team good last year. This year they'll be better up front and in the secondary, while a transfer helps out the weaker linebacker unit.

The Bulldogs rush defense will stay rock-solid as three starters return to the defensive line. NFL draftee Pernell McPhee (12 QB hurries) is gone but Sean Ferguson, Josh Boyd, and Fletcher Cox are back. The secondary got picked on due to the run defense being tough but did a good job and they'll only get better. Corners Johnthan Banks and Corey Broomfield (3 int each) are back as are safeties Charles Mitchell and Nickoe Whitley (3 int). All three starting linebackers are gone, however, including the team's #1 and #2 tacklers, Chris White (110 tackles, 6 sacks, 9.5 tackles for loss), and K.J. Wright (9 pass breakups). Clemson transfer Brandon Maye had 103 tackles in 2009 and will anchor the new group. The Bulldog defense should be top ten again.

Kicking Game:  Placekicker Derek DePasquale connected on 10 of 12 attempts last year and returns, while punter Heath Hutchins (41.5 average) departs. He'll be replaced by sophomore Baker Swedenburg.
Return Game:  Chad Bumphis averaged 8.6 yards per punt return and is back, but star kickoff returner Leon Berry (26.8 average, 1 TD return) departs. LaDarius Perkins had a 20.1 yard average. WR Brandon Heavens among others will join the fielding team.

Coaching/Recruiting      2011 Recruiting Rank: #48          2010 Recruiting Rank: #31
Dan Mullen has gotten the job done at Mississippi State everywhere but recruiting. He took over a 4-8 team and in two years had a 9-4 season. But his recruiting classes have been at the bottom of the SEC, where talent pours into the other teams and half the conference is ranked in the top 10 this season. It's impressive what he's been able to do with what are mostly Sylvester Croom's recruits, but whether he can sustain the program with average classes remains to be seen.

2010 Recap 

Last year Mississippi State was one of those rare teams that has wasn't upset; they beat all the teams worse than themselves and lost to all those better. They didn't beat any top 25 teams and they lost only to top 25 teams. At 9-4, the best team they beat was 8-5 Florida, and the "worst" teams they lost to (in terms of record) were 10-3 Alabama and Arkansas.

Two early losses were excuseable—particularly the 17-14 loss to Auburn—and after beating Florida 10-7 they were ranked. They lost to Alabama big on the road (30-10) and battled Arkansas into double overtime at home (losing 38-31), then beat rival Mississippi to finish the regular season on a high note. The Bulldogs finished the entire season on a very high note, thrashing Michigan 52-14 in the Gator Bowl.

Miss St 2011 schedule & forecast
9/3	Sat	@	Memphis	99%	W
9/10	Sat	@	*Auburn	44%	L
9/17	Sat	vs.	*LSU	56%	W
9/24	Sat	vs.	Louisiana Tech	90%	W
10/1	Sat	@	*Georgia	49%	L
10/8	Sat	@	UAB	89%	W
10/15	Sat	vs.	*South Carolina	43%	L
10/29	Sat	@	*Kentucky	68%	W
11/5	Sat	vs.	Tenn.-Martin	100%	W
11/12	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	24%	L
11/19	Sat	@	*Arkansas	37%	L
11/26	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi	90%	W
Straight up: 7-5  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 96%

 

2011 Outlook  There are a lot of different ways Mississippi State's season could go in 2011 due to their schedule, particularly, the home and road split.

The Bulldogs face Auburn and Georgia, two teams they would beat at home, on the road. Meanwhile they face LSU and South Carolina at home, giving them a fighting chance in both. But all four are more likely to be losses [note: LSU is looking like a win as the Tigers may be without key players]. Add in Alabama and Arkansas and you may have a disappointing 6-6 record. That makes it sound like a bowl season could be in jeopardy.

But with five very high-probability wins (Memphis, LA Tech, UAB, Tennessee-Martin, and Ole Miss in Starkville) the Bulldogs need only find one more win. It could be Kentucky, or it could be one of the four early tossup games mentioned, but there's a very good chance (95%) that they'll reach six wins. In fact the cumulative odds figure that the tossup games are more or less split between wins and losses and Mississippi State is most likely to have an 8-4 year. By mid-season the Bulldogs will be anywhere from 3-3 to 6-0 and we'll see what scenario is unfolding. If they do finish as the 5th SEC team that would send them to the Chik-fil-A Bowl where they might face Virginia Tech, another real tossup game.

2011 Pre-Season Rankings: #20 Virginia Tech Hokies

SportsRatings 2011 College Football Pre-season Top 120

VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES   (ACC #2; Coastal #1)

#20	2010 Results	Record: 11-3	Strength:#10  Success:#17  Overall:#14
		AP #16, USA #15	Bowl: Lost to Stanford 40-12 (Orange)
	2011 Outlook	Record: 10-2	Picks: Lindy's #12; Athlon #7; Steele #15
		AP #13, USA #13	Bowl: Chick-fil-A (eligibility odds: 99%)

Another year, another 10+ win season for the Hokies.

Offense 6 RS	'10 Scoring Offense: #21 (raw) #19 (adjusted)
	'11 Projected Scoring Offense: #20

The offense will change a lot without Tyrod Taylor but the adjustments should keep the Hokie offense rolling.

Passing Game	'10 Passing Rank: #72 (raw) #73 (adjusted)	'10 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #87
	'11 Projected Passing Rank: #78	'11 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #65

Tyrod Taylor had his best passing performance in his senior year, throwing for 2,743 yards and 24 touchdowns against just 5 interception. Which makes losing him all the more of a painful transition for 2011. 6' 6" Logan Thomas completed just 12 of 26 passes last year for 107 yards but he'll have a full complement of receivers back from last year starting with Jarrett Boykin (847 yards) and Danny Coale (732), while Dyrell Roberts, Marcus Davis, and RB David Wilson combined for 776. The offensive line allowed an awful 34 sacks last year but that should improve as four starters are back. Thomas probably won't be as efficient as Taylor (13th in nation in 2010) but he could be nearly as productive.

Rushing

'10 Rushing Rank: #23 (raw) #20 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #26

Darren Evans topped 1,000 yards as a freshman three years ago, and when he was hurt in the pre-season of '09 freshman Ryan Williams topped 1,500 yards. Neither repeated those numbers in the following seasons and both left early after disappointing 2010 campaigns. Evans led with 854 (11 TDs) while Williams had 447 and 9 TDs in half a season. Also gone is QB Taylor who had 659 (6 TDs), leaving David Wilson (619 yards, 5 TDs) in the backfield by his lonesome. Well not entirely alone: Tony Gregory topped 100 yards, and Josh Oglesby had 335 in '09. But much of the expectation for a good running game is on Wilson's shoulders. With the help of a strong offensive line he should deliver. As Beau Warren departs, four senior starters return: Jaymes Brooks, Greg Nosal, Blake DeChristopher, and Andrew Lanier. Running behind a strong line, Wilson should top 1,000 yards fairly easily, though the group won't fully compensate for losing their star backs and QB Thomas won't replace Taylor's ground yardage.

Defense 5 RS	'10 Scoring Defense: #26 (raw) #23 (adjusted)	'10 sacks: #13	'10 picks: #4
	'11 Projected Scoring Defense: #16	'11 sacks: #13	'11 picks: #4
'10 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #50    Pass Defense  per-game: #29   Per-attempt: #29

Virginia Tech's defense is always good, but their rushing defense was surprisingly poor at #50 last year. The defensive line returns just one starter, Antoine Hopkins, losing John Graves (16 QB hurries) and Steven Friday (8.5 sacks, 21 QB hurries) while oddly moving Chris Drager (20 QB hurries) to tight end. At linebacker Lyndell Gibson (10 QB hurries) is gone while #1 tackler Bruce Davis (6 sacks, 12 QB hurries) is back with Jeron Gouveia-Winslow. The secondary loses Davon Morgan (5 interceptions) and Rashad Carmichael (4 int) but Jayron Hosley (9 interceptions!) is back with Eddie Whitley (2). Despite losing several starters the 2nd and 3rd string are back nearly intact so the defense on the whole is stronger, though the rushing defense is a concern.

Kicking Game:  The Hokies had one of the nation's best kicking games in 2010 but both punter Brian Saunders (44 yard average) and kicker Chris Hazley (21 field goals in a row!) depart. The new kicker is Cody Journell while either Scott Demier or WR Danny Coale could handle punting.
Return Game:  The kick fielding unit was fantastic last year and all components are back. Jayron Hosley averaged 12.6 yards per punt return with one touchdown, and David Wilson had two touchdowns along with his 26.5 average on kickoffs.

Coaching/Recruiting      2011 Recruiting Rank: #39          2010 Recruiting Rank: #37
Frank Beamer has now had seven 10-win seasons in a row with Virginia Tech. It always seems that a loss comes early, destroying the Hokies' shot at a national title before it gets started; the last four seasons they've lost within the first two games. Beamer always has special teams and defense up to snuff, and he does less with more as Virginia Tech rarely has top recruiting classes. The last two years aren't great but are not too far below the norm in Blacksburg.

2010 Recap 

When Virginia Tech lost at home to James Madison of the FCS, there were 3 possible conclusions. One, that Virginia Tech was terrible. Two, that James Madison must be really great. Or three, Virginia Tech had a fluke performance 5 days after losing a huge game to Boise State.

Most pundits decided on explanation #1 and wrote off the Hokies. Looking back, as both the Hokies and Broncos ran off 10 straight wins, did it ever make sense to compare them with James Madison, instead of concluding that the one game where Virginia Tech played poorly was a fluke? Of course not. Virginia Tech was one of the most consistent teams in the country, perhaps *the* most consistent—if you take away that one aberration. The Hokies beat seven bowl teams in an 11-game winning streak leading into the Orange Bowl where they were crushed by Stanford 40-12.

VA Tech 2011 schedule & forecast
9/3	Sat	vs.	Appalachian State	92%	W
9/10	Sat	@	East Carolina	91%	W
9/17	Sat	vs.	Arkansas State	91%	W
9/24	Sat	@	Marshall	93%	W
10/1	Sat	vs.	*Clemson	69%	W
10/8	Sat	vs.	*Miami FL	70%	W
10/15	Sat	@	*Wake Forest	84%	W
10/22	Sat	vs.	*Boston College	75%	W
10/29	Sat	@	*Duke	82%	W
11/10	Thu	@	*Georgia Tech	79%	W
11/17	Thu	vs.	*North Carolina	77%	W
11/26	Sat	@	*Virginia	81%	W
Straight up: 12-0  Cume: 10-2  Bowl eligible: 99%

 

2011 Outlook  There's no reason for Virginia Tech to lose an early game this year. If they drop one of the first two then the team might be in trouble. Although they do play Appalachian State who famously shocked Michigan, and East Carolina who beat the Hokies in the 2008 opener, it's pretty likely that Virginia Tech will have their first 4-0 start since 2006.

The next two games are actually their toughest challenges: Clemson and Miami. Both are at home, and the Miami game may get a lot less threatening when suspensions are announced. Down the line through the entire ACC season, the Hokies will be favored, meaning we give them a 12-0 record picking the contests game by game. The cumulative odds favor a 10-2 mark, with a 1 in 3 chance of getting to 11 wins and a solid 8% chance of going undefeated.

Of course if they do that well they're back in the ACC championship game where they'd probably face Florida State and probably lose. So we don't see a BCS title game—nor a BCS bowl—in Virginia Tech's 2011 future. Instead they'd go to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl against an SEC team, probably Mississippi State.

2011 Pre-Season Rankings: #21 Florida Gators

SportsRatings 2011 College Football Pre-season Top 120

FLORIDA GATORS   (SEC #6; East #2)

#21	2010 Results	Record: 8-5	Strength:#28  Success:#36  Overall:#29
		AP #31, USA #32	Bowl: Beat Penn State 37-24 (Outback)
	2011 Outlook	Record: 7-5	Picks: Lindy's #20; Athlon #18; Steele #19
		AP #22, USA #23	Bowl: Gator Bowl (eligibility odds: 92%)

Talk about agreement: Florida is #18 Athlon, #19 Phil Steele, #20 Lindy's, #21 SportsRatings, #22 AP, and #23 USA/Coaches poll.

Offense 6 RS	'10 Scoring Offense: #44 (raw) #22 (adjusted)
	'11 Projected Scoring Offense: #9

Charlie Weis takes over the offense and...okay Notre Dame fans (and foes), stop laughing.

Passing Game	'10 Passing Rank: #88 (raw) #79 (adjusted)	'10 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #53
	'11 Projected Passing Rank: #53	'11 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #87

What happens when you go from a spread option to a pro-style offense, anyway? More passing? Less QB running? A decided schematic advantage? We suppose it means a run/pass mix, which takes a step away from the run-run-pass mix Urban Meyer favored. So without going overboard we've credited the passing game with a few more attempts per game that the running game will no longer see. This roughly corresponds to the times the quarterback would be running the ball, something less likely with John Brantley starting under center. Brantley struggled to reach 2,000 yards and had 10 interceptions with only 9 touchdowns last year while trying to run Meyer's offense. Weis' offense will be more better suited to him. Instead of competing with Jordan Reed (252 passing yards) and Trey Burton (83), he'll be throwing to them, as Reed moves to tight end and Burton to fullback (though either might run the wildcat at times). Seven players had over 100 receiving yards and six return, with Deonte Thompson (570 yards) the leader and Omarius Hines and Frankie Hammond the #3 and #4 (557 combined). The team might suffer many more than last year's 24 sacks, due to the offense passing a bit more and because four starters leave the O-line. Weis' offense should fit Brantley better but pro-style offenses take a while to gear up so we don't look for Danny Wuerfful-type numbers.

Rushing

'10 Rushing Rank: #43 (raw) #30 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #41

Isn't it time for Jeffery Demps to become a superstar already? The fastest man in college football for the last three years, Demps has had pedestrian rushing totals as he's been part of a committee backfield and had injuries. This year he's been injured in the off-season and the rest of last year's committee returns. Demps led with 551 and RB/WR Chris Rainey (366) is back as are ex-QBs Burton (349, 11 TDs) and Reed (328). Mike Gillislee had 325. Emmanuel Moody (265) departs while Omarius Hines (152) is also back. Meyer never had a "feature" back and it's not certain Weis will, either. The offensive line loses some strength as Mike Pouncey leaves with Carl Johnson, Maurice Hurt, and Marcus Gilbert. Xavier Nixon and Jon Halapio both started the majority of games and Weis brings in Dan Wenger who started a full year at Notre Dame in 2008. With Rainey and Burton to share the carries, it appears Demps will again, at best, lead the committee.

Defense 3 RS	'10 Scoring Defense: #30 (raw) #29 (adjusted)	'10 sacks: #93	'10 picks: #1
	'11 Projected Scoring Defense: #43	'11 sacks: #101	'11 picks: #3
'10 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #24    Pass Defense  per-game: #12   Per-attempt: #14

Florida's secondary was the best at picking off passes last season. They won't be #1 next year as Ahmad Black (#1 tackler with 108, 10 tackles for loss, 5 interceptions) is gone along with Janoris Jenkins and Will Hill, who combined for another 5 INTs. Jeremy Brown (3 int) returns. A.J. Jones and half-time starter Brandon Hicks are gone at linebacker while Jelani Jenkins and half-time starter Jonathan Bostic (3 int) are back. The defensive line is depleted, basically losing 3 1/2 starters including Justin Trattou (10 tackles for loss) and Duke Lemmens (team leader with 4 sacks). Part-time starter Jaye Howard (9 tackles for loss) is back. The defense looks weaker across the board but returning reserves and incoming talent should prevent anything disastrous under defensive specialist Will Muschamp's first year as head coach.

Kicking Game:  Punter Chas Henry (45.1 yard average, 40.9 net) also kicked 7 of 11 field goals. He departs, and though senior Caleb Sturgis (2 of 4 FG) will resume placekicking chores, the punting job falls to freshman Kyle Christy.
Return Game:  Andre Debose (28.0 average, 2 TDs) and RB Demps (32.5) are both great kickoff returners. Cornerback Janoris Jenkins averaged 8.3 yards per punt return but he was dismissed and transferred, leaving the punt fielding job to RB/WR Rainey.

Coaching/Recruiting      2011 Recruiting Rank: #27          2010 Recruiting Rank: #1
This is what a coaching transition recruiting class looks like. Will Muschamp takes over from Urban Meyer, who actually went through with his promise to retire the second time around. At Texas Muschamp was one of the original "coaches in waiting" nearly all of whom got tired of waiting and went elsewhere. A prized defensive coordinator, Muschamp made the interesting hire of Charlie Weis as offensive coordinator, separting the man's specialty from his perceived lack of effectiveness as a head coach. This year's recruiting class is a far cry from last year's which, once all the DNQs and transfers had been sorted through, ranked as our #1 class for 2010. Normally the "transition year" effect isn't so pronounced, and it's heightened by this year's smaller class and a couple of early prospect tranfers (TB Mike Blakely to Auburn, WR Javares McCoy to Texas Tech).

2010 Recap 

Florida's 2010 performances were up-and-down, mostly due to their offense. The early games were a bit sloppy due to Brantley's new-starter status but the running game kept things going. Yet one game after QB Trey Burton scored 6 touchdowns against Kentucky (48-14) the team managed just 6 points against Alabama (31-6). Mississippi State (10-7) and Florida State (31-7) held them to a touchdown apiece in beating the Gators.

The Gators split close games with LSU (a 33-29 loss) and Georgia (W 34-31 OT), but South Carolina handled the Gators pretty easily, 36-14. In the Outback Bowl they sent Urban Meyer off with a 37-24 win. Though they didn't beat a ranked team all year, their losses were to strong teams and they beat six bowl teams. In short, they became the middling SEC team that so many other squads had been relegated to being in recent years when Florida was dominant.

Florida 2011 schedule & forecast
9/3	Sat	vs.	Florida Atlantic	99%	W
9/10	Sat	vs.	UAB	96%	W
9/17	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	79%	W
9/24	Sat	@	*Kentucky	67%	W
10/1	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	23%	L
10/8	Sat	@	*LSU	31%	L
10/15	Sat	@	*Auburn	43%	L
10/29	Sat	N	*Georgia	56%	W
11/5	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	89%	W
11/12	Sat	@	*South Carolina	29%	L
11/19	Sat	vs.	Furman	97%	W
11/26	Sat	vs.	Florida State	32%	L
Straight up: 7-5  Cume: 7-5  Bowl eligible: 92%

 

2011 Outlook  Florida may be a borderline top 25 team by everyone's estimation, but that doesn't cut it in the SEC. After two gimme non-conference foes they should handle Tennessee at home and Kentucky on the road, but Alabama and LSU are probably too touch. The Auburn game will be a good measure of both recent national champions to see which is rebuilding faster; the edge goes to the home field Tigers for now.

The Gators should beat Georgia, but it's a tough call at the neutral location. Vandy should remain an easy win this year, while South Carolina on the road is another trying challenge. Furman is the team's 4th easy victim, and FSU the only challenging non-conference team on the slate.

In all they look very 7-5. 8-4 would require beating Auburn and not slipping against Georgia, so it's not far-fetched. Better than 8-4 requires getting an upset against a very good team, either Alabama, LSU, South Carolina, or FSU. Likewise falling below 6-6 would take some doing considering there are four cupcakes; the Gators need only go 2-6 against the rest. If they finish 6th in the SEC, the Gators would go to the Gator Bowl, a natural fit, and play a Big Ten team like Michigan State.

2011 Pre-Season Rankings: #22 Auburn Tigers

SportsRatings 2011 College Football Pre-season Top 120

AUBURN TIGERS   (SEC #7; West #5)

#22	2010 Results	Record: 14-0	Strength:#6  Success:#1  Overall:#1
		AP #1, USA #1	Bowl: Beat Oregon 22-19 (BCS Championship)
	2011 Outlook	Record: 7-5	Picks: Lindy's #24; Athlon #42; Steele #33
		AP #23, USA #19	Bowl: Music City (eligibility odds: 88%)

Heavy losses drag Auburn from their brief perch atop college football, but great recruiting should keep the Tigers a bowl team.

Offense 3 RS	'10 Scoring Offense: #7 (raw) #3 (adjusted)
	'11 Projected Scoring Offense: #12

A host of starters are gone, and the bad news is Cam Newton is one of them.

Passing Game	'10 Passing Rank: #66 (raw) #61 (adjusted)	'10 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #29
	'11 Projected Passing Rank: #108	'11 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #70

Heisman trophy winner Cameron Newton was last year's offense. In fact he was last year's team, because without him the Tigers wouldn't have been close to the top 10 let alone national champions. His exit leaves a huge hole in the offense that won't be filled. With regards to passing, Newton threw for 2,854 yards and had 30 touchdown passes with just 7 interceptions, completing 66%. WR Kodi Burns had starting QB experience but he's gone, too, leaving Barrett Trotter (64 career yards) at the helm. It would be okay if he had the best receivers available but Darvin Adams (963 yards, 7 TDs) departs along with #2 Terrell Zachery (605). Emory Blake (554) and tight end Philip Lutzenkirchen (185) are back with Quindarious Carr (103) but that's it for targets with over 100 receiving yards under their belt. Worse, the offensive line might not provide very good protection for Trotter, having given up 23 sacks last year when fast, hard-to-tackle Newton was QB. Barrett can run a bit, too, but the O-line will only get worse as four starters are gone. We think our numbers overestimate the passing decline but that it will be substantial.

Rushing

'10 Rushing Rank: #5 (raw) #2 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #5

Newton's greatness was in his dual threat, and by running for 1,473 yards and 20 touchdowns he made himself harder to defend as a passer, too. But Newton wasn't the team's only ground-gainer by a longshot. Michael Dyer had 1,093 yards (5 TDs) and Onterio McCalebb had 810 (9 TDs). They're both back while Mario Fannin (395 yards) departs. Hampering the ground production, the offensive line loses four starters from last year: Lee Ziemba, Ryan Pugh, Byron Isom, and Mike Berry. Senior Brandon Mosley is the sole returnee, and though they've had great recruiting for years the O-line won't be better with one or two freshmen starting or an all-freshman 2nd string, two scenarios that might play out. Basically losing only Newton's production from the QB spot, the Tigers have two great running backs who combined for 1,900 yards last year; they will continue to have a great running game, though our numbers perhaps overestimate it. Take some of Auburn's rushing yards and give them to the passing game, and that's probably more realistic.

Defense 3 RS	'10 Scoring Defense: #53 (raw) #26 (adjusted)	'10 sacks: #11	'10 picks: #51
	'11 Projected Scoring Defense: #47	'11 sacks: #45	'11 picks: #92
'10 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #3    Pass Defense  per-game: #94   Per-attempt: #23

Auburn's defense was great against the run, leading teams to pass a lot against it. Up front the defensive leader was Nick Fairley who had 11.5 sacks, an additional 12.5 tackles for loss, and a monstrous 21 quarterback hurries. Fairley is gone along with Zach Clayton and Antoine Carter, whom when combined almost matched Fairley's stats. Though Nosa Eguae returns, you can see why our sacks estimate for the team plummets from near top ten to near average. At linebacker Daren Bates returns but they lose two more starters including #1 tackler Josh Bynes. The secondary loses another three starters including Zac Etheridge and Demond Washington who had six of the team's 12 interceptions last year. Nieko Thorpe (9 pass breakups) is back and is the only one of the team's top seven tacklers from last year that returns. The Tiger defense obviously gets a downgrade this season.

Kicking Game:  Even the special teams are troublesome this year. Punter Ryan Shoemaker (39.2 average) departs and his replacement, Steven Clark, averaged just 34.9 yards in 9 attempts. At kicker, 4-year starter Wes Byrum (17 of 22 last year) is gone, and sophomore Cody Parkey or perhaps senior Chandler Brooks will get the job.
Return Game:  Quindarius Carr had just a 5.7 yard per return average on punts so freshman Trovon Reed is now listed as the main punt returner. Demond Washington had a touchdown return to bolster his 24.3 yard average; he departs, leaving the job to RB McCalebb, who had a 28.4 yard average in limited action.

Coaching/Recruiting      2011 Recruiting Rank: #5          2010 Recruiting Rank: #4
When you lose a whole lotta players, like Auburn does this year, you hope and pray that recruiting went well the last few years. The last two years are most important, because then you know there is new blood coming into the program. Last year's class had redshirting freshmen, and this year's class has any number of new bodies. Luckily for Auburn Gene Chizik has put together back-to-back top five classes, so that over the 2-year period they've done better than almost any other team in the nation. In the last two years they've added nearly two dozen consensus blue chips to the team. There might not be a Cam Newton in this year's crop, but between recruits like QB Kiehl Fraser (Arkansas), OG Christian Westerman (Arizona), LB Kris Frost (North Carolina), and RB/WR Quan Bray (Georgia), Chizik's staff has shown the ability to recruit from many areas. Recruiting is the main reason Auburn stays in our top 25 despite overwhelming personnel losses, and could be back in the top ten in the next few years.

2010 Recap  Let's be clear: Auburn was not the best team in the country last year. Not for the whole season they weren't. In fact, at the beginning they were borderline top 25 at best. As the year went on they got better—by which we mean, Cam Newton got better, and pulled the team up with him—until they were good enough to edge Oregon on the last game of the year.

Auburn almost lost to Mississippi State, though Newton got them through that one 17-14. They needed overtime to edge Clemson. You can't tell me MSU and Clemson were elite teams last year, but in September they were Auburn's equals. The Tigers probably reached top 25 quality when they beat South Carolina 35-27. At Kentucky they won 37-34, and Auburn was certainly the luckiest undefeated team left, having won 3 of their first 6 by a field goal. Then Cam started to really be Cam, and they crushed Arkansas 65-43, beat LSU 24-17, and after three easier wins they were probably a true top ten team at 11-0. Heading into Alabama they fell behind 24-0 but rallied to win 29-28. Now they were maybe a top five team, and 12-0, though they could just as easily have been 7-5.

The SEC title game proved how much better they were. They beat South Carolina 56-17, a 39 point margin as opposed to September's 8 point home win. Meeting Oregon, the Tigers hit a last second field goal to prove they'd reached the very top, at the very last second of the college football season.

Auburn 2011 schedule & forecast
9/3	Sat	vs.	Utah State	95%	W
9/10	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi St.	56%	W
9/17	Sat	@	Clemson	53%	W
9/24	Sat	vs.	Florida Atlantic	99%	W
10/1	Sat	@	*South Carolina	28%	L
10/8	Sat	@	*Arkansas	35%	L
10/15	Sat	vs.	*Florida	57%	W
10/22	Sat	@	*LSU	30%	L
10/29	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi	89%	W
11/5	Sat	vs.	Samford	99%	W
11/12	Sat	@	*Georgia	47%	L
11/26	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	23%	L
Straight up: 7-5  Cume: 7-5  Bowl eligible: 88%

 

2011 Outlook  While Auburn's quality declines precipitously, their schedule still includes two FBS cupcakes (Utah State from the WAC and FAU from the Sun Belt) and one FCS team (Samford), all three at home of course. So the Tigers are already half-way to bowl eligibility.

With some luck they might even start 4-0, but 2-2 is just as likely as they face Mississippi State at home and Clemson on the road. They'll probably lose to South Carolina and Arkansas, while Florida is another close game and LSU another likely loss. They could finish 3-1 but Georgia is another tossup. In all we have them 7-5, but that includes going 3-1 in close games so a fall to 4-8 is not out of the question.

Playing the odds, though, Auburn should be 7-5, with 8-4 actually more likely than falling to 6-6. The three easy games are such certain wins (and Mississippi should be a fourth) that they only have to win a few more to get to a bowl. Yes, there's the chance that their luck with revert to the mean instead of regressing to the mean. If that happens then they will have a losing record. But we see Auburn in a bowl game in 2011—albeit one a little bit earlier in the bowl season, and with a slightly smaller payout.

2011 Pre-Season Rankings: #23 Nebraska Cornhuskers

SportsRatings 2011 College Football Pre-season Top 120

NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS   (Big Ten #3; Legends #1)

#23	2010 Results	Record: 10-4	Strength:#16  Success:#18  Overall:#16
		AP #20, USA #19	Bowl: Lost to Washington 19-7 (Holiday)
	2011 Outlook	Record: 8-4	Picks: Lindy's #9; Athlon #10; Steele #10
		AP #10, USA #11	Bowl: Outback (eligibility odds: 98%)

The rest of the world has Nebraska hovering around the top ten as they move to the Big Ten, but we see a squad trying to break in a very new offense and losing some key players on special teams.

Offense 5 RS	'10 Scoring Offense: #39 (raw) #36 (adjusted)
	'11 Projected Scoring Offense: #28

New coordinator Tim Beck brings a faster-tempo to the offense and, like Michigan is trying to do with Denard Robinson, he may have Taylor Martinez passing more and running less.

Passing Game	'10 Passing Rank: #113 (raw) #98 (adjusted)	'10 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #78
	'11 Projected Passing Rank: #84	'11 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #102

Taylor Martinez was perhaps the most exciting newcomer on the college football scene last year—at least, for the first few months. After he got hurt his speedy excursions downfield became limited. As a passer Martinez had his moments—5 touchdown passes against Oklahoma State—but for the year he had just 1,631 yards and 10 touchdowns. Other than Martinez the QB cupboard got barer, as ex-starter Zac Lee departs, backup Cody Green (340 yards, 3 TDs) transferred, hotshot recruit Bubba Starling signed with the Royals, another recruit (Jamal Turner) switched to wide receiver, and Kody Spano left in the spring. At receiver they lose #1 Niles Paul (516 yards) and #4 Mike McNeil (346), but #2 and #3 Brandon Kinnie and Kyler Reed (891 combined yds) are back and RB Rex Burkhead added 148. It will be interesting to see what form the new offense takes and how much more passing is done—as well as how they plan to protect Martinez, who was rattled by pressure last year. The offensive line gave up 29 sacks, terrible considering how little the 'Huskers threw the ball, and a faster tempo might make things even worse as the O-line returns just two starters. Still, more throwing = more yards in our book.

Rushing

'10 Rushing Rank: #9 (raw) #10 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #21

Nebraska had a huge triple threat running the ball last season. First it was Martinez who established himself as a runner, and though injuries wore him down late he finished with 965 and 12 TDs—despite over 200 sack yards. Roy Helu exploded for 307 yards against Missouri and led the team with 1,235 and 11 touchdowns. Rex Burkehead was a consistent gainer and finished with 951. Helu is gone and Martinez probably won't have that kind of yardage this year. Plus, the offensive line may be a bit weaker. They lose starters Keith Williams, Ricky Henry, and D.J. Jones, while senior Mike Caputo and sophomore Jeremiah Sirles return. They also have senior Marcel Jones, who started in 2009, back. Burkhead will continue to gain yardage and should surpass 1,000 this year and Martinez will still take off and run occasionally—especially early, against say, Chattanooga—but everyone saw what the Big Ten season did to Denard Robinson. Nebraska should still be a ground-attack-based team but not quite like last year.

Defense 6 RS	'10 Scoring Defense: #9 (raw) #10 (adjusted)	'10 sacks: #33	'10 picks: #16
	'11 Projected Scoring Defense: #14	'11 sacks: #22	'11 picks: #22
'10 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #71    Pass Defense  per-game: #2   Per-attempt: #6

Last year's defense was tough overall but surprisingly gave up a lot of rushing yards. That's partly a result of having such a strong pass defense, which made teams stick to the ground more than they would have. This year the rushing defense should get a boost as three starters return on the defensive line: Jared Crick (9.5 sacks, 10 QB hurries), Cameron Meredith (10 QB hurries), and Baker Steinkuhler; they lose Pierre Allen, credited with 12 QB hurries. At linebacker they lose Eric Hagg, and with a transition from 4-2-5 to more 4-3 that leaves two spots open. Anchoring the corps will be Lavonte David, who recorded an incredible 152 tackles last year with 6 sacks and 10 pass breakups. The secondary loses roughly three starters (due to using nickel defense) including Prince Amukamara (13 pass breakups) but back are Alfonzo Dennard and Austin Cassidy, along with a few part-time starters. Overall the defense should remain roughly as strong, perhaps a bit stronger against the run and more lenient against the pass, which is the right direction for the Big Ten.

Kicking Game:  Punter/kicker Alex Henery had a great year, averaging 43.2 yards per punt and making 18 of 19 field goals. It's doubtful that Nebraska will find a replacement at either slot as good, and this is one area where the team is likely to slide. Brett Maher is looking to take over both jobs; a walk-on from the track team, he has 0 career punts in college and was holder for Henery. Freshman Mauro Bondi will compete for the placekicking job.
Return Game:  WR Niles Paul's return capability is another reason that losses on special team demote the Cornhuskers. Paul leaves after having a touchdown on a kickoff return and averaging 24.4 yards per return, and 11.4 on punt returns. Rex Burkehead may handle punts and freshman Jamal Turner could join Tim Marlowe (21.9 average) on kickoffs.

Coaching/Recruiting      2011 Recruiting Rank: #29          2010 Recruiting Rank: #29
Bo Pelini has Nebraska back in the double-digit win column, but some controversy remains. When he got on Taylor Martinez's case on the sidelines last year it prompted a lot of speculation that Martinez might transfer. So far Pelini—a defensive coach by trade—has the Black Shirts back, but the offense has stalled dead in certain games under his watch. This year's recruiting class is decent and is in the running for #2 in the Big Ten. Despite high-profile recruit Starling (see QBs) opting for an MLB contract and uncertainty about Charles Jackson's clearinghouse status, there are still plenty of consensus blue chips in the class like RB Aaron Green and QB (now WR) Jamal Turner, both from Texas.

2010 Recap  Nebraska played some great football and some poor football in 2010, mostly dependent on whether the offense was up to snuff one week to the next. Their first three games were good enough, and certainly the 56-21 Washington road win was impressive. But they laid an egg against I-AA South Dakota State, winning just 17-3. They made up for that next week against Kansas State, crushing the Wildcats 48-13.

But the next week was their worst game of the season; they lost at home 20-13 to a Texas team that would finish 5-7 on the year. Inexplicably, they roared back for their two best wins, beating Oklahoma State 51-41 and Missouri 31-17 back-to-back. Martinez was injured against Missouri and the glow didn't last as they were nearly upset by Iowa State (winning 31-30 in overtime), scored just 20 against Kansas at home, and fell to Texas A&M 9-6 scoring just 2 field goals. The offense regrouped against Colorado 45-17 with Martinez out, and played Oklahoma close (23-20) with Martinez back but still hobbled. The pointless rematch with Washington might have been a new low as they fell 19-7, a 47 point swing. The defense really only played one bad game (at Iowa State) and all four losses were more due to the offense than the D.

Nebraska 2011 schedule & forecast
9/3	Sat	vs.	Chattanooga	96%	W
9/10	Sat	vs.	Fresno State	89%	W
9/17	Sat	vs.	Washington	68%	W
9/24	Sat	@	Wyoming	93%	W
10/1	Sat	@	*Wisconsin	25%	L
10/8	Sat	vs.	*Ohio State	46%	L
10/22	Sat	@	*Minnesota	77%	W
10/29	Sat	vs.	*Michigan State	68%	W
11/5	Sat	vs.	*Northwestern	85%	W
11/12	Sat	@	*Penn State	59%	W
11/19	Sat	@	*Michigan	62%	W
11/26	Sat	vs.	*Iowa	73%	W
Straight up: 10-2  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 98%

 

2011 Outlook  Nebraska kicks off 2011 with three home games, two near-gimmes and the third game against Washington in the last 12 months. They won convincingly on the road, lost pathetically on a neutral field, and now will host the Huskies. It's an interesting early test for both teams. They travel to Wyoming for another all-but-certain win, then their first Big 10 season starts.

And they get thrown right into the fire, having to travel to Madison to face the Badgers, who are also in everyone's top ten this year. We see a loss, and even Ohio State at home is a tossup (made more interesting and tougher to pick since the Buckeyes will have their suspended players back by this time).

But the 'Huskers should be favored the rest of the way, meaning a 10-2 season is possible, even expected, perhaps. Adding up the cumulative odds reveals 8.46 expected wins, just a sliver under 9-3, even as 9-3 is the single most likely result. They'd get a rematch with one of the "Leaders" in Indianapolis for the Big Ten title, but a different result would be an upset. As the #3 Big Ten team the Cornhuskers would go to the Outback Bowl to face an SEC team, probably Arkansas, which would make a very traditional, very red and white bowl game (ok: scarlet, creme, cardinal, and white).

2011 Pre-Season Rankings: #24 Arizona State Sun Devils

SportsRatings 2011 College Football Pre-season Top 120

ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS   (Pac-12 #5; South #2)

#24	2010 Results	Record: 6-6	Strength:#13  Success:#61  Overall:#20
		AP, USA unranked	Bowl: None
	2011 Outlook	Record: 7-5	Picks: Lindy's #25; Athlon #28; Steele #24
		AP #28, USA #26	Bowl: Sun (eligibility odds: 82%)

At one time the darling of pre-season prognosticators, some of whom had them in their top 10, ASU fell on hard times due to injuries and now looks like a borderline top 25 club.

Offense 8 RS	'10 Scoring Offense: #28 (raw) #13 (adjusted)
	'11 Projected Scoring Offense: #17

With a little more running and a little less passing, the offense may balance out to be nearly as effective as last year.

Passing Game	'10 Passing Rank: #15 (raw) #10 (adjusted)	'10 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #72
	'11 Projected Passing Rank: #23	'11 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #26

The first of many casualties the football team faced was starting quarterback Steven Threet, who retired due to repeated concussions. Threet threw a lot of interceptions (16) but was reasonably productive with over 2,500 passing yards and 18 TDs. He leaves the team in the hands of Brock Osweiler who had almost 800 yards and a 5:0 TD:Int ratio. Top receiver Kerry Taylor (699 yards) is gone but it looked like nearly everyone else was back until #2 T.J. Simpson (481) suffered an ACL tear that very likely puts him out for the year. They do have Mike Willie (442 yards), Gerell Robinson (387), and four other players who topped 200 receiving yards last year including WRs Aaron Pflugrad and Jamal Miles. The team has no proven backup QB now as Samson Szakacsy left, but protection should be much better than last year's 31 sacks as all five offensive line starters return. The passing game is bound to slide but should still remain sound.

Rushing

'10 Rushing Rank: #79 (raw) #72 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #53

The ground game is in better shape than the passing game (relative to last season), but it had its share of scares, too. Cameron Marshall (#1 with 787 yards and 9 TDs) is back, but #2 Deantre Lewis (539) was shot in the leg during the off-season and looked doubtful for a while. He's back and should only miss a few games at most. A few other backs have had minor injuries during camp, too, but as a whole the group is in good shape. The offensive line should be in great shape as five starters return. Back are  seniors Garth Gerhart and Mike Marcisz, sophomore Evan Finkenberg, and junior Andrew Sampson along with half-time starters Mike Marcisz and Dan Knapp. Between the full complement of ball carriers and the stronger offensive line, the rushing game should take up the slack left by the passing game.

Defense 5 RS	'10 Scoring Defense: #55 (raw) #27 (adjusted)	'10 sacks: #25	'10 picks: #32
	'11 Projected Scoring Defense: #27	'11 sacks: #28	'11 picks: #53
'10 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #11    Pass Defense  per-game: #98   Per-attempt: #37

The defense was hit hard during the off-season, with one starter in each unit lost. The first casualty came in the spring in the secondary when Omar Bolden (3 int) tore his ACL, making his return this year very unlikely. They also lose Max Tabach, but still have most of the crew back, including Eddie Elder, Clint Floyd, and Osahon Irabor. At linebacker top tackler Vontaze Burfict (8.5 tackles for loss) is back but #2 Brandon Magee tore his Achilles' tendon and will take a medical redshirt. Colin Parker and other part-time starters return with Burfict leaving the LB slot in decent shape despite Magee's loss. On the defensive line three starters are gone including James Brooks, who left the team in the summer for personal reasons. Jamaar Jarrett and Junior Onyeali together started a total of 12 games and combined for 11 sacks, but the strong rushing defense could suffer. Before the recent losses the defense looking like one of the better ones in the nation. Now it's looking about the same as last year—still good, but not great.

Kicking Game:  The kicking game needs a new punter and placekicker to replace Trevor Hankins (44.6 per punt average) and Thomas Weber (made 17 of 24 FG last year). Juco Josh Hubner is the new punter and freshman Alex Garoutte (very inconsistent in the spring according to Athlon) takes over at kicker.
Return Game:  Jamal Miles will continue as punt returner (8.6 average last year) and perhaps field kickoffs too as LeQuan Lewis (28.5 yards per kickoff return, one touchdown) departs. Kyle Middlebrooks also took back kickoffs to the tune of 26.4 yards per attempt.

Coaching/Recruiting      2011 Recruiting Rank: #73          2010 Recruiting Rank: #21
The three seasons since 2007 have been big disappointments—two losing seasons, and no bowl game last year either. It looked like 2011 was the year that Dennis Erickson would match his rookie year with ASU, when the team went 10-3, but now they might have to aim lower due to all the personnel losses. Recruiting was disappointing this year, too, compared to last, with this class at or near the bottom of the Pac-12. Erickson has been on the hot seat for a while now, and it didn't help when last year's top receiver Taylor tweeted an insult about the coach in January, saying that Erickson shouldn't be the head coach. This year's results might determine whether there is a change or not.

2010 Recap  ASU was far better than their 6-6 record last year. They lost to Wisconsin by a point, Oregon by just 11, Oregon State by a field goal, USC by 1, and Stanford by 4 points. In other words, with an extra touchdown per game they'd have been 10-2. They did get blown out by Cal, 50-17, needed double overtime (and luck) to beat Arizona, and two of their six wins were over FCS teams. Getting close but losing doesn't impress the fans much, so they'll have to get over the hump in 2011.

ASU 2011 schedule & forecast
9/1	Thu	vs.	UC Davis	99%	W
9/10	Sat	vs.	Missouri	49%	L
9/17	Sat	@	Illinois	47%	L
9/24	Sat	vs.	*USC	49%	L
10/1	Sat	vs.	*Oregon State	59%	W
10/8	Sat	@	*Utah	52%	W
10/15	Sat	@	*Oregon	7%	L
10/29	Sat	vs.	*Colorado	84%	W
11/5	Sat	@	*UCLA	49%	L
11/12	Sat	@	*Washington St.	68%	W
11/19	Sat	vs.	*Arizona	60%	W
11/26	Sat	vs.	*California	48%	L
Straight up: 6-6  Cume: 7-5  Bowl eligible: 82%

 

2011 Outlook  Arizona State really was on track to have a great season. Even after all the injuries, it looks like a decent season and it still could be a great one. There's only one game that looks out of reach, meaning 11-1 is a possibility and would have been a probability before all the personnel losses hit.

In the aftermath, there are about six games that are too close to call; all of these would have gone ASU's way previously. And a few early one are so close—Missouri, Illinois, and USC—that even the exclusion or inclusion of backup running back Deantre Lewis can alter the outcome by our method. We've docked him through the Missouri game and counted a 50% chance of him coming back after that rather than redshirting, and that popped the Sun Devils from 9-3 straight-up to 6-6; there's a fine line between a superb year and having a new head coach in January.

Even if ASU suffers a 1-3 September, which is possible, there should be better times ahead and they could go 7-1 from there. Of course there are lots of close calls along the way: Utah in Salt Lake City, UCLA in LA, and Cal in Berkeley (or rather San Fran, where they play this season). So instead of trying to pick these impossible games let's look at the cumulative odds. There we find that a 7-5 season is most likely for the Sun Devils, with a trip perhaps to the Sun Bowl, maybe against Miami or whoever replaces them if they're ineligible.

Just for kicks I figured out where we would have ranked ASU without *all* the injuries, including Threet. ASU came out just below the top ten, a strong favorite in 11 games, cumulative odds saying 9-3 with a 1 in 4 chance of 10 or more wins. File that under "what could have been" but if the Sun Devils have luck on their side this year all that could still happen.

2011 Pre-Season Rankings: #25 Oregon State Beavers

SportsRatings 2011 College Football Pre-season Top 120

OREGON STATE BEAVERS   (Pac-12 #6; North #4)

#25	2010 Results	Record: 5-7	Strength:#22  Success:#65  Overall:#27
		AP, USA unranked	Bowl: None
	2011 Outlook	Record: 6-6	Picks: Lindy's #60; Athlon #53; Steele #51
		AP NR, USA #44	Bowl: MAACO Las Vegas (eligibility odds: 62%)

Probably the best team in the nation with a losing record last year, the Beavers aren't quite as good in 2011 but a slightly less killer schedule might see them going bowling this year.

Offense 8 RS	'10 Scoring Offense: #82 (raw) #33 (adjusted)
	'11 Projected Scoring Offense: #22

 A stronger offensive line will help Ryan Katz in his 2nd year starting, but getting James Rodgers back healthy would help even more.

Passing Game	'10 Passing Rank: #71 (raw) #50 (adjusted)	'10 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #79
	'11 Projected Passing Rank: #25	'11 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #68

Ryan Katz had a fair outing as Oregon State's starting QB last year, completing 60% for 2,401 yards and 18 touchdowns, with a slightly excessive 11 interceptions. The team faced very good pass defenses last year, however. The Beavers' top three targets return in Markus Wheaton (675 yards), tight end Joe Halahuni (390) and Jordan Bishop (353). The real bonus though will be the healthy return of James Rodgers, who had over 1,000 yards in 2009 and just 215 before an ACL injury ended his 2010 season. It isn't clear when that return will come, but it looks like a few games in, and Halahuni is out for at least a few games as well. Sacks—35 of them—plagued the team last year, too, but that should get somewhat better as the O-line strengthens. If Rodgers returns, even if he's not his old self, the passing game should approach top 25 quality. Either way it should improve in Katz's second season as starter.

Rushing

'10 Rushing Rank: #98 (raw) #77 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #77

While James may be back, we know Jacquizz isn't. The Beavers' #2 all-time career rusher departs after amassing 1,184 yards and 14 touchdowns last year. WR Wheaton was #2 in rushing with 220, and James Rogers was third with just 38. QB Katz managed 14 net after subtracting 220 sacks yards. This year's starter is either Ryan McCants, who had 14 last season but 337 three seasons ago, or Jovan Stevenson who didn't play in 2010 but had 137 two years ago. James Rogers had over 300 in 2009, also, so between those players there will be some production, but not enough to make up for Jacquizz. The offensive line will help out there, as four starters are back. Seniors Grant Johnson, Burke Ellis, and Mick Remmers join junior Michael Phillip as Alex Linnenkohl departs. This season the yardage will be spread around a lot more and with a stronger line, could add up to be nearly what Jacquizz had, though there may be no go-to guy who can take over a game like 'Quizz could.

Defense 3.5 RS	'10 Scoring Defense: #64 (raw) #20 (adjusted)	'10 sacks: #6	'10 picks: #40
	'11 Projected Scoring Defense: #30	'11 sacks: #19	'11 picks: #62
'10 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #51    Pass Defense  per-game: #34   Per-attempt: #46

Even more than the offense, the defense looked worse than it actually was due to the Beavers' schedule. Playing Oregon and Stanford is bad enough, but they also took on Boise State and TCU. The defense gave up an average number of points last year (64th in nation) but when corrected for their killer schedule was really a top 25 defense.

This year the team's great pass rush will weaken as three defensive line starters who combined for 14 sacks are gone, including Stephen Paea (6) and Gabe Miller (5). Dominic Glover (2.5 sacks) is back pending academic issues. At linebacker they lose two starters including their top tackler Dwight Roberson while Rueben Robinson is back. The secondary loses another two starters and Brandon Hardin (shoulder surgery) may be out three games or the whole year. Lance Mitchell holds down the fort at safety. Overall the team loses six, and maybe seven of its top eight tacklers and will be weaker, but they were vastly underrated last year. The Beavers still have to play Oregon and Stanford, as well as Wisconsin, but not Boise or TCU.

Kicking Game:  Punter Johnny Hekker (41.7 average) returns but Justin Kahut (8 of 12 field goals) is kaput, with frosh Trevor Romaine taking over.
Return Game:  Kick returns is another area where James Rodgers is so important. Last year he had the team's only touchdown return and averaged 28.7 on kickoffs and 18.3 on punts (inflated by the TD) before injury. Corner Jordan Poyer took over and did very well (27.8 on kickoffs, 9.5 on punts) so he will remain at the job until Rodgers is 100%. WR Marcus Wheaton may join the ranks too.

Coaching/Recruiting      2011 Recruiting Rank: #41          2010 Recruiting Rank: #68
Mike Riley had an average recruiting year for a Pac-12 school, and a better one than last year. The most important find seems to be juco Rusty Fernando who is listed as a starter on the defensive line. Four freshmen on the team were suspended for one game by Riley after committing MIP (minor in possession) offenses.

2010 Recap  Oregon State was a team that played everybody close, win or lose, for most of the season. They barely beat Louisville (35-28) in between moderate losses to TCU (30-21) and Boise State (37-24). They beat the Arizona teams by a total of 5 points, then lost by a point in overtime to Washington. They were 3-3 but could have been 4-2 or 0-6. They beat Cal 35-7 for their first convincing win but fell to UCLA (by 3) and Washington State 31-14 for their first inexcusable loss. Somehow rebounding to thrash USC 36-7, they lost to Stanford and Oregon 38-0 and 37-20. Their 5-7 record made them look like a below average team, but in power ratings the Beavers looked very good.

Oregon St 2011 schedule & forecast
9/3	Sat	vs.	Sacramento State	85%	W
9/10	Sat	@	Wisconsin	16%	L
9/24	Sat	vs.	*UCLA	63%	W
10/1	Sat	@	*Arizona State	41%	L
10/8	Sat	vs.	*Arizona	61%	W
10/15	Sat	vs.	BYU	77%	W
10/22	Sat	@	*Washington St.	67%	W
10/29	Sat	@	*Utah	52%	W
11/5	Sat	vs.	*Stanford	20%	L
11/12	Sat	@	*California	33%	L
11/19	Sat	vs.	*Washington	65%	W
11/26	Sat	@	*Oregon	7%	L
Straight up: 7-5  Cume: 6-6  Bowl eligible: 63%

 

2011 Outlook  Despite being a top 25-level team by our numbers, the Beavers still have a very tough schedule and will be fortunate to reach bowl eligibility. Dropping TCU and Boise State helps but getting Wisconsin doesn't. They'll also be short about 4 key players for that game, which I think can just be written off as a learning experience. They have BYU instead of Boise State and that one they can win.

The Beavers should be very competitive in the Pac-12. Not for the title, but for a decent placing. Home games against UCLA, Arizona, and Washington should be wins, and they can beat Washington State and maybe Utah on the road. They will probably lose to Stanford at home and the Civil War could be a bigger rout this year in Eugene, but we tally seven wins for the Beavers and the cumulative projection says a 6-6 finish is likely. Given the team's up-and-down performance last year combined with many super-close games, I'd say the cume is the way to go instead of trying to pick individual contests.

If the Beavers qualify for a bowl game and do finish #6 in the Pac-12, they'd go to the MAACO Las Vegas Bowl. Here comes the irony: they'd be matched up against the #1 Mountain West team. That's certain to be either Boise State or TCU, the teams they so thankfully dropped from this year's schedule. Either TCU or Boise will probably go to a BCS bowl this year, so the Beavers would get the one the other. Try as they might, the schedule doesn't get easier after all!