2011 Pre-Season Rankings: #83 Arkansas State Red Wolves

SportsRatings 2011 College Football Pre-season Top 120

ARKANSAS STATE RED WOLVES   (Sun Belt #1)

#83	2010 Results	Record: 4-8	Strength:#86  Success:#108  Overall:#86
		AP, USA unranked	Bowl: None
	2011 Outlook	Record: 8-4	Picks: Lindy's #99; Athlon #97; Steele #99
		AP n/a, USA NR	Bowl: New Orleans (eligibility odds: 96%)

The Red Wolves don't have to get much better than they were last year to compete for the Sun Belt crown—they just have to play up to their potential, something they didn't do at all last year.

Offense 6 RS	'10 Scoring Offense: #42 (raw) #72 (adjusted)
	'11 Projected Scoring Offense: #65

If the Red Wolves can cobble together an offensive line, their offense will be great. As it is, the improvement will be limited but the air attack still impressive.

Passing Game	'10 Passing Rank: #32 (raw) #36 (adjusted)	'10 Sacks Allowed (adj.): #71
	'11 Projected Passing Rank: #19	'11 Sacks Allowed (proj.): #98

What worked for Arkansas State last season will work again: going to the air. Ryan Aplin threw for just shy of 3,000 yards and 21 touchdowns (11 int) as a sophomore. Top receivers Dwayne Frampton, Allen Muse, and Taylor Stockmer combined for 1,933 yards and 16 TDs. They're all back and they get Josh Jarboe who was briefly at Oklahoma before playing at Troy and then junior college. In their second season of OC then HC Hugh Freeze's system they'll be even more impressive. But the O-line is the hitch in the plans. They gave up 22 sacks last year, which isn't good given their competition, but isn't bad for how often they throw. However with only one starter back on the line, protection could be a big issue. Aplin will have a tougher time but he's a year wiser, though backup Phil Butterfield is out for the year. The Red Wolves could still have a top 25 passing game.

Rushing

'10 Rushing Rank: #68 (raw) #82 (adjusted)

'11 Projected Rushing Rank: #75

The offensive line is the top topic of this team, and it's the reason why most rank the team closer to #100 nationally. They lose four starters from last year: Derek Newton, Sifa Etu, Kiano Prater, and Dominic Padrta. They're fortunate to get one back, as Tom Castilaw needed a waiver for a 5th year. There are a few others with experience. Eric Allen started half-time in 2009 and 1 game last year; Delano Moore started 3 games in '09 and 1 last year; and James Williams, one of several junior college offensive linemen brought in as a stop-gap, started 2 games at Vanderbilt in 2009. The rushing game can't depend on this line for progress, but luckily the entire backfield returns. Derek Lawson led the team with an even 500 yards while QB Aplin was #2 with 477 net (and 11 touchdowns). Jermaine Robertson (5 TDs) and Sirgregory Thornton (6.8 ypc) combined for 606. Not huge numbers, but no departures, so we foresee pretty much the same running game as last season despite the fragmented line.

Defense 5 RS	'10 Scoring Defense: #91 (raw) #98 (adjusted)	'10 sacks: #60	'10 picks: #82
	'11 Projected Scoring Defense: #87	'11 sacks: #57	'11 picks: #77
'10 Adjusted Stats:	Rush Defense: #99    Pass Defense  per-game: #93   Per-attempt: #114

The defensive line loses Bryan Hall who had 8.5 sacks, but various returning half- and part-time starters (Dorian Woods, Brandon Joiner, Justin Robertson, and Amos Draper) combined for 13, so the pass rush will remain decent. At linebacker they lose #1 tackler Javon McKinnon but Nathan Herrold returns. They used a nickelback a lot so even though Damerio Davis only started part-time, he was one of the best on the defense and he's back, too. The secondary loses the #2 tackler from last season (M.D. Jennings) but the #3 (Kelcie McCray) is back along with Darron Edwards who had 10 pass breakups. Though the purist accounting of returning starters is paltry, the team has back 8 of its top 11 tacklers and 16 of the top 19, so the defense should be better.

Kicking Game:  Neely Sullivant averaged 40.7 yards per punt while Dan Gericke averaged 42.9. Sullivant is back while Gericke went pro—in rugby. Arkansas State had dueling true freshman kickers last season, with Brian Davis (6 of 8 FG) the better of the two as Bobby Zalud made just 6 of 13. Both are back.
Return Game:  Roderick Hall returned both punts (8.2 average) and kickoffs (23.1) for the Red Wolves, and he is back for 2011.

Coaching/Recruiting      2011 Recruiting Rank: #95
The Red Wolves' recruiting class in 2011 wasn't great, but it was a coaching change year. They had a stronger class that year that will still be paying dividends on the field. Hugh Freeze moved from offensive coordinator to head coach when Steve Roberts was fired, and he inherits a team with a lot of potential but some clear weak areas to resolve. One is the offensive line, of course, and a big part of this year's class was devoted to handling just that, as they bring in several junior college linemen including Aaron Williams and James Williams (unrelated).

2010 Recap  Throughout a long 4-8 season the one constant was the offense, that always managed to put some points on the board. Their low for the year was 19 (at Navy) and the high was 51 (MTSU) but in the other 10 games they were in the 20s or 30s. The offensive consistency is one reason why, when head coach Roberts was let go, offensive coordinator Freeze got the job.

Arkansas St. 2011 schedule & forecast
9/3	Sat	@	Illinois	14%	L
9/10	Sat	vs.	Memphis	96%	W
9/17	Sat	@	Virginia Tech	9%	L
9/24	Sat	vs.	Central Arkansas	86%	W
10/1	Sat	@	*W. Kentucky	66%	W
10/8	Sat	@	*LA-Monroe	65%	W
10/18	Tue	vs.	*Fla International	58%	W
10/29	Sat	vs.	*North Texas	80%	W
11/5	Sat	@	*Florida Atlantic	86%	W
11/12	Sat	vs.	*LA-Lafayette	84%	W
11/19	Sat	@	*M. Tennessee St.	78%	W
12/3	Sat	vs.	*Troy	67%	W
Straight up: 10-2  Cume: 8-4  Bowl eligible: 96%

 

2011 Outlook  By our system Arkansas State rates as the best team in the Sun Belt and what's more, they play the #2 and #3 teams at home, giving them a big advantage in the conference race. Game-by-game, we have them winning 10 games on their schedule, and most aren't even very close.

The two losses are pretty apparent: at Illinois, and at Virginia Tech. Beyond that they shouldn't be too heavily challenged other than in some of the road games and FIU and Troy at home. Adding up the cumulative odds an 8-4 record is less ostentatious and perhaps a more realistic goal for a team coming off a 4-8 season. But they should have no problem with bowl eligibility.

The X-factor is the offensive line, which could theoretically be the difference between 10-2 and another 4-8 year. But the first four games are actually good for them; they aren't going to beat Illinois or Virginia Tech even with a great O-line, and they can't lose to Memphis or Central Arkansas even if the line is atrocious. So the first month of the season is for experience only and with luck things will be in order when they start the Sun Belt season. If the Red Wolves are anything but 2-2 in September...that is significant.