SportsRatings: College Football

Results of 2010 Sun Bowl - Final Score: Notre Dame 33, Miami 17

Notre Dame defeated Miami 33-17 in a reprise of the class series from the 1980s. Tommy Rees had two TD passes to Michael Floyd and David Ruffer hit 3 field goals. Meanwhile Miami's Jacory Harris threw three interceptions and replacement Stephen Morris has threw one, but he also threw two 4th-quarter touchdown passes. Notre Dame's Harrison Smith picked off three Miami passes in the first half.

Though it was lopsided early on, the teams finished the game with nearly identical total yardage and first down numbers. The difference was turnovers; Notre Dame committed none while Miami threw four first-half interceptions.

Notre Dame improved to 8-5; Brian Kelly led the team to its most wins since the 2006 season. Miami dropped to 7-6, with interim head coach Jeff Stoutland losing his debut before Al Golden takes over next season.

Game drives

1st Quarter

• Notre Dame: Good kickoff return by Notre Dame past the 40. Penalties affect both teams early on, and negate a decent Rees pass play. But on 3rd and 15 Rees hit Michael Floyd and Floyd got inside the 25. Two plays later Floyd was held in the end zone and pass interference called, putting the ball inside the 5. Rees found Floyd in the end zone for a touchdown. Notre Dame 7, Miami 0
• Miami: Graig Cooper returns the kick to around the 20. Harris completed a short pass, then Miami is called for a false start. Michael James gets a decent run to give Miami a 3rd and 4, but Harris' completion on 3rd down came up short. Miami punt.
• Notre Dame: Robert Hughes won't go down but gains only a couple. Theo Riddick in at wildcat; he is almost caught way back but eludes, nearly getting the first down, and they get it on the next play. Hughes catches a another first down pass and Notre Dame is in Miami territory again. Holding penalty by Notre Dame is offset a play later by face mask penalty. Rees throws a terribly pass but Brandon Harris falls, allowing Floyd to get his 2nd touchdown pass. Notre Dame 14, Miami 0.
• Miami: Terrible kick return, Lamar Miller tackled inside the 15. Harris goes for an ill-conceived bomb and it's intercepted.
• Notre Dame: Miami is at least stuffing the run pretty effectively, the only thing they're doing well so far. So the Irish go back to the pass and Floyd nearly has a first down. Short run play converts. Two short gains later Notre Dame faces a 3rd and 8, which Rees can't convert. Notre Dame punt.
• Miami: Damien Barry close to a 1st down, and Miami converts with a run on 3rd down, their first first down with less than a minute left in the first quarter (Notre Dame has 7 at this point). Miller gets about 3 and the quarter ends.

2nd Quarter

• The Hurricanes get a few more on the ground; 3rd and 3. Harris completes his first long pass for a first down in Notre Dame territory. Harris is picked off again on the next play.
• Notre Dame: From near mid-field Rees goes for it all but Floyd is covered. On the next play, though, Rees pitches to Cierre Wood who runs it the rest of the way for a touchdown. Notre Dame 21, Miami 0.
• Miami: Harris throws a decent pass, then follows it up with an interception. This is getting to be an absolute disaster for Harris.
• Notre Dame: The Irish have the ball near mid-field again, but can't get a first down. Notre Dame punts, but Travis Benjamin muffs the catch after calling for a fair catch. Notre Dame could have had the ball but the defender was scared of the ball due to a brain fart, and Benjamin got it back.
• Miami: Stephen Morris is in for the Hurricanes and gets them a first down. Morris then converted on a 3rd down to move Miami to midfield. But on the next play it's ANOTHER interception by Harrison Smith (this THIRD of the game).
• Notre Dame: A big pass play and penalty on Miami puts the Irish at midfield again. Rees just misses Floyd in the end zone.Ultimately the Irish settle for a field goal this time. Notre Dame 24, Miami 0
  
• Miami: Staying on the ground, Miami gets one first down. Then, facing 3rd and 10 and scared to pass the ball, they run and fall short.
• Notre Dame: Another decent drive, and another field goal. Tommy Rees may have been hobbled on the play previous to the kick. Notre Dame 27, Miami 0.
• Miami: Morris has Miami's best play of the day with 10 seconds left in the half, moving into Notre Dame territory. Miami managed a field goal before the end of the half.

3rd Quarter (less detail as the game becomes less compelling...)

• Miami: Went three and out.
• Notre Dame: The Irish survived two fumbles to drive to the Miami 1-yard line, where they were stopped on two attempts to get in the end zone. Another David Ruffer field goal made it 30-3. Notre Dame 30, Miami 3.
• Miami: The Canes had one of their better drives, from the 13 to the 50, but they went for it on 4th and 1 and failed.
• Notre Dame: Now both teams are slipping on offense. The Irish got the ball at the 50 but missed a field goal.

4th Quarter

• Miami: Another three and out.
• Notre Dame: The Irish have their first 3-and-out.
• Miami: Stephen Morris leads the first Hurricane touchdown drive, completing 4 passes including a 6-yard TD to Leonard Hankerson. Notre Dame 30, Miami 10.
• Notre Dame: Drove into Miami territory and punted.
• Miami: Morris led another Miami touchdown drive, throwing a 59-yard TD pass to Tommy Streeter and making the score respectable at least. Notre Dame 30, Miami 17.
• Notre Dame: Needing a score to make sure the game remains completely out of reach, the Irish drive to the red zone and get another field goal. Notre Dame 33, Miami 17.
• Miami: Morris drove the team to the Notre Dame 13 yard line, but a penalty and an incompletion ended the game.

More College Football Bowls: Go here for the full 2010-2011 schedule with previews and results.

Results of 2010 Meineke Car Car Bowl - Final Score: USF 31, Clemson 26

South Florida held on for a 31-26 win over Clemson in the Meineke Car Care Bowl.

Clemson scored first to take a 3-0 lead, but South Florida responded with 17 straight points to take a 17-3 lead midway through the 2nd quarter.

Clemson got another field goal from Chandler Catanzaro and, with 30 seconds left in the half, Jamie Harper took it in from the one yard line to cut the margin to 4. Halftime score: USF 17, Clemson 13.

South Florida took the momentum back, however, by scoring on their first 2nd half possession. Moise Plancher's 2 yard run put the Bulls back up by 11.

B.J. Daniels scored on an 8 yard run to put USF even farther ahead, 31-13 early in the 4th.

Clemson finally came alive late, scoring a touchdown, getting an onside kick and scoring again. Tajh Boyd passed to Brandon Ford for 13 and 10 yards; the Tigers failed on a 2-point conversion and made a normal PAT to cut the lead to 31-26.

South Florida recovered the next onside kick and ran out the clock.

More College Football Bowls: Go here for the full 2010-2011 schedule with previews and results.

2011 Fiesta Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Oklahoma vs. Connecticut

Saturday January 1: Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, AZ at 8:30 pm eastern

#13 Oklahoma Sooners (11-2) vs. Connecticut Huskies (8-4)

The Big 12 has the least to win this bowl season. Look at what their top teams got: 10-2 Missouri played 7-5 Iowa; 10-2 Oklahoma State played 7-5 Arizona; 10-3 Nebraska played a rematch with 6-6 Washington; and 11-2 Oklahoma plays Big East automatic-qualifier Connecticut. Like the other teams, the Sooners have a lot more to lose than they have to gain.

Vegas line/spread: Oklahoma by 16 1/2 (over/under 55).

Oklahoma is the heaviest favorite of the bowl season (along with Boise State over Utah).

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. spread
Oklahoma	80.5%	51%
UConn	19.5%	49%

Oklahoma wins 4/5 of the game comparisons based on this season's performances. The Sooners are are top ten team (#8) according to the Strength Power Rating, while UConn is an average I-A team at #61. The spread is about right in that it creates nearly a 50/50 split.

Strength Power Rating:      Oklahoma 37, Connecticut 19

With the big difference in power rating, Oklahoma is accordingly a huge favorite. There's a big gap in defensive ranking (the Sooners #21, the Huskies #52) but a huge difference on offense, where Oklahoma ranks #10 and Connecticut #76. These are averages for the whole season; we'll look at how UConn is playing in recent games in a bit.

Yardage analysis:  Oklahoma 44, UConn 13   per attempt:   Oklahoma 27, UConn 12

The same discrepancy in team quality is found in yardage. Oklahoma ranks #8 in yardage differential while UConn is a terrible #85. While Oklahoma outgains the average FBS team by 180 yards, Connecticut is outgained by 59 yards by the same hypothetical team; thus, Oklahoma should outgain UConn by around 240 yards (with 500 total yards), and the corresponding score estimate spread is a whopping 31 points. The Sooners are top 25 in both offense and defense by this measure (9th and 16th) while UConn is poor (#91 and #66) on both sides of the ball.

Using per-play averages (adjusted for opponents played) and assuming a balance between passing and running, UConn looks a lot better on defense but Oklahoma still wins handily. The Sooner offense isn't as potent on a per-attempt basis, but they move fast and call a lot of plays.

Yardage + turnovers + kick returns projection:  Oklahoma 45, UConn 12

Making matters worse, Oklahoma is better when it comes to turnovers, both at gaining them and avoiding committing them. They rank #10 in adjusted turnover margin, compared to UConn's #39. This suggests a statistical average of about a 0.75 turnover advantage for Oklahoma, translating into almost three more points.

On punt returns Oklahoma has the advantage due to their coverage team being #2 in the nation. Neither teams' fielding unit is terribly explosive. Kickoffs are a different matter. The Huskies' Nick Williams has two touchdowns on kickoffs and Robbie Frey averages 26 yards per return; meanwhile Oklahoma has given up three TD returns. Overall UConn gains a full point for field position and possibility of a big play on kick returns.

When Oklahoma has the ball

Oklahoma rushing offense: #70

UConn rushing defense: #66

Oklahoma has relied mostly on DeMarco Murray, who has 1,131 yards and 14 touchdowns this year. But he and his main backups (Roy Finch and Mossis Madu) average only 4.5 yards per carry, hardly an impressive figure. While UConn's ground defense isn't great, it should hold the team to about their average of about 140 yards.

Oklahoma passing offense: #4	UConn passing defense: #76   per att: #47
Oklahoma interceptions thrown ranking: #34	UConn interceptions picked ranking: #19
Oklahoma quarterback protection rank: #46	UConn pass rush rank: #87

Landry Jones was unexpectedly thrust into the starting role last year, but this season he had time to mentally prepare and he's delivered to the tune of 4,289 yards and 35 touchdowns. Ryan Broyles is one of the best receivers in the nation (1,452 yards, 13 TDs) and several other standout targets (RB Murray is #3 on the team with 595 yards) Oklahoma's air attack is relentless and hard to slow down. UConn's pass defense is sub-par in the long run and Jones should have over 350 yards.

UConn will go with their strength and hope to make big plays; Blidi Wreh-Wilson and Jerome Junior both have four interceptions. But Jones has thrown only 11 on the year, so getting more than one will be a challenge for the Huskies. Their quarterback pressure isn't very good so don't expect more than a sack or two either.

When UConn has the ball

UConn rushing offense: #36

Oklahoma rushing defense: #30

UConn's main offensive weapon is Jordan Todman, who has 1,574 yards and 14 touchdowns this year. Contrasted with Oklahoma's running game, Todman and backup Robbie Frey both average over 5 yards per carry. The Sooner rushing defense is better than UConn's, though, and should hold them to around 150 yards.

UConn passing offense: #109	Oklahoma passing defense: #13   per att: #5
UConn interceptions thrown ranking: #36	Oklahoma interceptions picked ranking: #13
UConn quarterback protection rank: #17	Oklahoma pass rush rank: #10

Connecticut's passing game has been troubled and anemic. Zach Frazer started the year, briefly lost his job to Cody Endres, and gained it back when Endres was suspended and left the team (but not before freshman Michael Box started a game in front of him). Frazer has just over 1,200 passing yards this year and only 5 TD passes, and a 5.4 yard per attempt average. Against Oklahoma's strong pass defense that's not going to cut it; Frazer probably won't get far beyond 100 yards.

Frazer has limited his mistakes, however, throwing just 4 interceptions in 222 attempts. The Sooners probably won't have more than one pick despite being one of the top defenses in interceptions (Jamell Fleming and Quinton Carter have 4 each). And despite being #10 in adjusted sacks—Jeremy Beal leads the team with 8.5—they'll probably have only an average amount (2) since Frazer won't be throwing that often. He's been sacked only 10 times this season.

 

Oklahoma's season

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (6)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (2)
Losses (2); to losing teams (0)  

1. Utah State 31-24
2. Florida State 47-17
3. Air Force 27-24
4. @ Cincinnati 31-29
5. Texas 28-20
6. Iowa State 52-0
7. @ #12 Missouri 27-36
8. Colorado 43-10
9. @ #16 Texas A&M 19-33
10. Texas Tech 45-7
11. @ Baylor 53-24
12. @ #14 Oklahoma State 47-41
13. = #17 Nebraska 23-20

With high pre-season rankings, Oklahoma kicked off the season with a performance that had everyone shaking their heads as they almost lost to lowly Utah State at home.

They made that game look like a fluke by beating FSU 47-17 the next week. Surely the Utah State game was due to "looking ahead"? But the next three games weren't that great as they won by a total of 13 points. The competition was at least respectable, and the Iowa State blowout made them 6-0.

But Oklahoma fell to Missouri and then Texas A&M, putting them out of the national title picture. They still had the Big 12 title to fight for, and over the last four games played their most consistent football, beating four bowl teams and two straight top 25 teams at the end.

UConn's season

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (4); to losing teams (1)

1. @ Michigan 10-30
2. Texas Southern 62-3
3. @ Temple 16-30
4. Buffalo 45-21
5. Vanderbilt 40-21
6. @ Rutgers 24-27
7. @ Louisville 0-26
8. #23 West Virginia 16-13 OT
9. Pittsburgh 30-28
10. @ Syracuse 23-6
11. Cincinnati 38-17
12. @ South Florida 19-16

Connecticut had an even more erratic season than Oklahoma; at one point even reaching a bowl game seemed unlikely, let alone winning the conference and with it a BCS bowl bid.

The opening loss to Michigan was, in retrospect, an embarrasing offensive performance, on par with getting shut out at Louisville in game 7. Their other losses (Temple and Rutgers) were very poor efforts, too, and the wins over Buffalo and Vanderbilt weren't that much better (actually, since Texas Southern finished 9-3, dominating them was a pretty strong effort, especially in holding them to 3 points).

But the team turned around 180 degrees after the Louisville loss, playing solid, consistent football on both offense and defense, beating four bowl teams, and winning the Big East. It seemed that one the quarterback situation was fully cleared up and the Huskies upset West Virginia, they didn't look back.

Key Injuries

Neither team has any game-changing injuries as of a day before the bowl game.

Psychology: Oklahoma +1    UConn +5

• Oklahoma's season: +4 wins;  UConn's season: +1 win
• Oklahoma's momentum: -1; UConn's momentum: +2
• Oklahoma glad to be there? -2; UConn glad to be there: +2
• Oklahoma lost final game: -0; UConn lost final game: -0
• Oklahoma coaching situation: +0; UConn coaching situation: +0

Overall Oklahoma has to be happy about winning the Big 12 and playing in a BCS bowl. They finished the season strong. But like other Big 12 teams, what do they have to gain from a win? If you look at their opponent, nothing; they have quite a bit to lose, however.

UConn has nothing but positives across the board. Facing a tough foe, they're expected to lose big so things can only get better if they play well. When they were 3-4 their post-season was in doubt and now they're in the Fiesta Bowl. They've also gained a lot of confidence due to their recent play.

Final analysis

Just going by the average of our computer projections and giving UConn a couple of points for being more psyched up, we get a score of around Oklahoma 40, UConn 17. And that could easily happen. But I don't think it will.

Let's look at how UConn has played recently. During their 5-game winning streak, the Huskies have played almost 10 points better than their full-season average. And I think they'll play even better than that for the biggest game in their school's football history.

Oklahoma played very well down the stretch and even if the prospect of winning this game doesn't excite them that much, they certainly don't want to lose it. I think they'll win, but it will look a lot like the Utah State game—UConn won't go away just because everyone thinks they should.

Prediction:  Oklahoma 31, Connecticut 23

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2010-2011 bowl game schedule.

Results of 2010 Holiday Bowl: Washington Gets Revenge, Final Score 19-7

Washington dominating Nebraska 19-7, winning the rematch of a 56-21 blowout and giving the Huskies a winning season.

Unlike the first game which Nebraska controlled from the start, Washington scored first. Chris Polk ran it in from the 4-yard line, and Erik Folk kicked a 39-yard field goal as the Huskies took a 10-0 lead at the end of the first quarter.

Nebraska got on the board in the 2nd quarter as Taylor Martinez threw a 15 yard pass to Kyler Reed to make it 10-7. Nebraska's defense came up with one of the team's few highlights as they stopped Washington on a 4th and goal from the 1 as the half ended; Still, their 7 points were 21 fewer than they had in the first half of the teams' earlier meeting.

The third quarter saw much of the same, with Nebraska's offense stifled and Washington having occasional success. Jake Locker couldn't pass effectively but he broke through for a 25 yard touchdown to make it 17-7. Locker's poor passing stats—he completed just 5 of 16—were the one constant between the two games.

Later Washington drove into Nebraska territory and again faced a 4th and goal from the 1. And once again Nebraska's defense stopped them.

Their celebration was short-lived; backed up against their own goal line, a holding call gave Washington a safety and a 19-7 lead early in the 4th quarter. Neither team scored from there and Washington celebrated a winning season, two years removed from an 0-12 campaign. Nebraska fell to 10-4, losing three of four, but holding wins over Missouri and Oklahoma State.

Polk ran for 177 yards and Locker had 83. Martinez, who had 150 yards passing and 137 rushing for Nebraska in the first meeting, managed just 53 and 23 this time around as he still didn't see 100% despite the long layoff. As a team, Nebraska's rushing yardage fell from 383 to 91.

More College Football Bowls: Go here for the full 2010-2011 schedule with previews and results.

2010 Music City Bowl Results - Final Score: North Carolina 30, Tennessee 27 2OT

North Carolina beat Tennessee in two overtimes in the Music City Bowl.

In the craziest ending of the bowl season so far, North Carolina forced overtime with a last-second field goal moments after almost allowing time to expire. The officials even declared the game to be over, and for several minutes the crowd, coaches, and players thought Tennessee had won, 20-17. But reminiscent of last year's Texas-Nebraska Big 12 championship, 1 second was put back on the clock. North Carolina, trying to run the field goal team on the field at the same time the spike was needed to stop the clock, had well over 11 men on the field. The 5-yard penalty was a small price to pay for the opportunity to kick the field goal. Casey Barth hit the tying field goal but the arguments from Tennessee continued.

Not only that, but Tennessee was called for an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty for roughing the kicker that carried over into overtime, putting North Carolina at the 12 1/2 yard line to start the first overtime period.

The teams traded scores all game.

UNC's Shaun Draughn scored first on a 58 yard touchdown run on their first possession; Tennessee tied it with a 29-yard Tyler Bray pass to Gerald Jones.

Casey Barth kicked a 28-yarder early in the 2nd half to put North Carolina up 10-7, but Bray gave the Volunteers a 14-10 lead as Bray hit Da'Rick Rogers on a 45 yard touchdown pass. Just before the half ended, the Tar Heels went up 17-14 as T.J. Yates hit Erik Highsmith for 39 yards. Halftime score: North Carolina 17, Tennessee 14.

There was no score in the 3rd quarter, but early in the 4th Bray put Tennessee on top with a 9-yard strike to Justin Hunter. Critically, however, extra point was missed, and the score remained 20-17 until the final second of regulation.

The teams traded touchdowns in the 1st overtime period, but Bray was intercepted in the 2nd overtime. North Carolina ran a few plays and Barth kicked the game winner.

North Carolina finished the year 8-5 after much higher expectations; Tennessee finished 6-7 after starting 2-6.

More College Football Bowls: Go here for the full 2010-2011 schedule with previews and results.

Results & Final Scores of 2010 Armed Forces, Pinstripe Bowl: Army, Syracuse win tight games

Unlike yesterday's blowout-fest, the early games on Thursday featured two tight games, with Syracuse and Army holding on to beat Kansas State and Southern Methodist by 2 points each.

Armed Forces Bowl: Army 16, SMU 14

This game wasn't close most of the way through but it ended up as tight as it could be, as SMU missed a potentially game-winning field goal with minutes left.

Army jumped to a 13-0 lead in the first quarter and scored all of their points in the first half. On SMU's first series Kyle Padron fumbled and Josh McNary took it back 55 yards for a touchdown; Army's second TD came 10 minutes later and this time on offense, as Malcolm Brown rushed 13 yards into the end zone.

Alex Carlton missed the first PAT, but made the second and added a 44-yard field goal late in the 2nd quarter. The halftime score was Army 16, SMU 0.

But it was Army's turn to be shut down, and the Broncos finally had some luck on offense in the third quarter. After being intercepted twice in the first half in addition to the fumble, Padron found Aldrick Robinson for an 8-yard gain to cut the lead to 16-7. On SMU's next series Padron completed a TD pass to Darius Johnson and it was just a two-point Army lead early in the 4th quarter.

SMU stopped Army again and drove to the Army 30 yard line, where Matt Szymanski missed a 47 yard attempt with four minutes to go.

Army took over and Trent Steelman got the Knights the two first downs they needed, first on a 7-yard rush, and then facing 3rd and 4 he connected with Davyd Brooks and Army ran out the clock.

Steelman completed only 2 of 7 attempts for 30 yards and Army generated just 222 yards of offense to SMU's 422. Padron had 303 passing yards and Zach Line rushed for 103. But as we projected in our pre-game analysis, SMU dominated in yardage but Army won the turnover battle big time.

Pinstripe Bowl: Syracuse 36, Kansas State 34

Ryan Nassib threw three touchdown passes and Delone Carter ran for 199 yards and two TDs as Syracuse outlasted Kansas State 36-34.

The Wildcats struck first on Daniel Thomas' 51-yard run. Thomas had just 39 yards on 20 carries other than the TD run as the Orange shut down Kansas State's most feared weapon.

Nassib countered with two long passes, both to Marcus Sales for 52 and 36 yard TDs. Thomas got his 2nd touchdown near the end of the first half, which ended 14 all.

In the third quarter Carter reached the end zone twice on runs of 7 and 15 yards, while Carson Coffman's 10 yard strike to Chris Harped kept the Wildcats close. They took the lead early in the 4th quarter;  Syracuse had missed an extra point on Carter's 2nd TD, so Thomas' third TD run, this time a 1-yarder, put the Wildcats ahead 28-27.

Nassib's 3rd to pass to Sales went for 44 yards; they tried a 2-point conversion to get back the one they missed, but failed, and it was 33-28 Orange. Both misses would almost come back to haunt them.

Kansas State drove into Orange territory and set up for a field goal. From the 11 yard line they went for a fake and failed, and the decision may have cost them the game.

Carter broke off a 60 yard run to put the Orange near the red zone, but they had to settle for a field goal and a 36-28 lead.

Coffman led one more scoring drive, capped by a 30-yard TD pass to Adrian Hillburn which cut the margin to 36-24. However, a celebration penalty against Hilburn for giving a "salute" to the crowd put Kansas State 15 yards back for the conversion. Trying to send the game into overtime, his pass to Aubrey Quarles fell incomplete and Syracuse ran out the clock.

Coffman finished with 224 passing yards and 2 TDs for the Wildcats, who dropped to 7-6. Receiver Marcus Sales had 5 catches for 172 yards and 3 TDs for the Orange, who made an even bigger program turnaround than the Wildcats to reach the bowl game. They finished the year 8-5.

More College Football Bowls: Go here for the full 2010-2011 schedule with previews and results.

2011 Rose Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: TCU vs. Wisconsin

Saturday January 1: Rose Bowl in Pasedena, CA at 5:00 pm eastern

#3 Texas Christian Horned Frogs (12-0) vs. #6 Wisconsin Badgers (11-1)

An unorthodox Rose Bowl due to the directed pick of a non-AQ team, but a very compelling matchup between teams that are a combined 23-1.

Vegas line/spread: TCU by 3 (over/under 58 1/2).

TCU has been a field goal favorite since the line opened.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. spread
TCU	66.4%	62%
Wisconsin	33.6%	38%

TCU is #4 and Wisconsin #12 in the Strength Power Rating, meaning TCU wins most of the game cross-comparisons. We'll see later that most of Wisconsin's better games took place in the last half of the season, so the lion's share of TCU's hypothetical wins are over the early-season Badgers.

Strength Power Rating:      TCU 36, Wisconsin 28

The Strength Power Rating has TCU about a 7.5 point favorite; the score estimate rounds to 36-28. TCU has both a powerful offense and defense, ranking #6 and #5 in adjusted scoring and adjusted scoring defense. Wisconsin's scoring offense is #9 but their defense is just #34.

Yardage analysis:   TCU 34, Wisconsin 14     per attempt:   TCU 37, Wisconsin 31

By yardage differential—a team's yardage gained minus the yardage their defense yields, all adjusted for the teams they play—TCU is the #1 team in the nation. Wisconsin is only #18, so this comparison greatly favors the Horned Frogs, and the score projection reflects this. TCU is #10 in total offense and #1 in total defense, with Wisconsin #29 and #23.

Of course, this assumes that a team's yardage is directly and logically converted to points, which is never the exact case. And it doesn't take into account things such as turnovers and return yards (we attempt to do that below). Using per-play figures instead of per-game, the margin is closer to the power rating projection.

Yardage + turnovers + kick returns projection:  TCU 33, Wisconsin 16

TCU is pretty decent in turnover margin, ranking #33 but Wisconsin is #5. Both teams rarely give up the ball; TCU is 19th and the Badgers are #3 at avoiding turnovers. So the predicted number of turnovers is very low, just two or maybe three, with Wisconsin having the advantage most of the time by about one turnover. This translates into about a 3 1/2 point swing toward the Badgers, on average.

On punts, both teams have good return men but TCU is in the top ten; Jeremy Kerley averages 13 yards per return. And Wisconsin is vulnerable, with only the #106 coverage. On kickoff returns TCU is again among the top ten—again, mostly thanks to Kerley. The Badgers have given up two touchdowns on kickoff returns. TCU should benefit with field position but it only modifies the projection by 1/2 point back toward TCU.

Overall between kick returns and turnovers Wisconsin gains an average of 3 points, but of course both these areas are defined by big plays and are extremely volatile. The Badgers could win the game due to turnovers, or Kerley could make a game-changing play.

When TCU has the ball

TCU rushing offense: #11

Wisconsin rushing defense: #46

TCU runs the ball very well, #7 in raw yardage and #11 when adjusted for opposition. Ed Wesley is the leader with 1,065 yards, and Matthew Tucker, Waymon James, and QB Andy Dalton all have over 400 yards for the Horned Frogs. Wisconsin's rushing defense is good but not great; TCU should have over 200 ground yards, but fewer than their average of 260.

TCU passing offense: #40	Wisconsin passing defense: #16   per att: #33
TCU interceptions thrown ranking: #24	Wisconsin interceptions picked ranking: #37
TCU quarterback protection rank: #9	Wisconsin pass rush rank: #69

Andy Dalton is a winner, first and foremost; he has 41 wins in his college career. The TCU passing offense is usually deliberate rather than explosive, and accordingly Dalton has completed 66% of his attempts for 2,638 yards and 26 touchdowns with just 6 intereceptions. But that's not to say there aren't big playmakers; Josh Boyce averages 18.2 yards per reception and Jeremy Kerley leads with 50 receptions, 10 of them for touchdowns. Wisconsin has a very good pass defense and should hold TCU below their average; still, that means about 200 yards for Dalton.

As mentioned, Dalton rarely throws interceptions. Wisconsin is a bit better than the average team they've faced in picking off passes so it's likely the Badgers will get one during the game. TCU is great at protecting Dalton, too; he's been sacked just 8 times this year. Despite some standout defensive players Wisconsin as a team is actually below average in the pass rush department, but they'll probably sack Dalton once.

When Wisconsin has the ball

Wisconsin rushing offense: #10

TCU rushing defense: #12

As good as TCU is on the ground, Wisconsin may be a notch better. Their three-headed monster of James White (1,029 yards), John Clay (936) and Montee Ball (864) is interchangeable and unstoppable. They average 7.0, 5.3, and 6.1 yards per carry and have an astounding 44 touchdowns between them.

Opposing them is a great rushing defense that could be their match. The Horned Frogs are #3 in raw yardage yielded, but they faced mostly poor rushing teams so their adjusted ranking is #12. On a per-play basis, they're only #37 so they're definitely vulnerable to a great ground team. They did very well against Air Force, holding them to 184 yards (more than 100 below their average) but Wisconsin has a more bruising attack. The Badgers should approach 200 rushing yards, which is almost 50 below their average but over 100 more than TCU normally yields.

Wisconsin passing offense: #87	TCU passing defense: #1   per att: #2
Wisconsin interceptions thrown ranking: #14	TCU interceptions picked ranking: #54
Wisconsin quarterback protection rank: #30	TCU pass rush rank: #62

Wisconsin's passing game is not overwhelming and TCU's pass defense is. Scott Tolzien is remarkably efficient, completing an amazing 74.3% of his attempts for 2,300 yards and 16 touchdowns. But TCU has the best pass defense in the country; they should hold Wisconsin under 100 yards for the game.

TCU's defense relies on fundamentally good coverage rather than big plays; they don't interception the ball or sack the quarterback more than the average team. Tolzien has thrown only 6 interceptions, so it's about 50/50 as to whether TCU will pick one off during the game. And Wisconsin protects him well, giving up only 11 sacks, meaning TCU should have a just one or two sacks. So passing plays aren't dangerous for Wisconsin, but they probably won't be very productive.

 

TCU's season

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (6)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (0); to losing teams (0)  

1. Oregon State 30-21
2. Tennessee Tech 62-7
3. Baylor 45-10
4. @ Southern Methodist 41-24
5. @ Colorado State 27-0
6. Wyoming 45-0
7. Brigham Young 31-3
8. Air Force 38-7
9. @ UNLV 48-6
10. @ #19 Utah 47-7
11. San Diego State 40-35
12. @ New Mexico 66-17

TCU didn't have a hard schedule, that's for sure. But it wasn't easy, either; they played six teams that qualified for bowl games, two more than Wisconsin did—and that's without noting Oregon State, who was at full strength when they played the Horned Frogs.

In terms of performance it's hard to fault them, particularly on defense. In one six-game stretch they gave up 0, 0, 3, 7, 6, and 7 points; three of those teams were bowl-winners BYU and Air Force, and ranked Utah. The Utah game was particularly stunning; before that point the Utes were on a roll but they were crushed 47-7 at home.

TCU's defense had a bit of trouble in their last two games, giving up late plays to San Diego State's passing game and allowing New Mexico to score 17 first-half points. They'll need to play up to the level of the six games before that to stop the Badgers.

Wisconsin's season

Wins vs. winning teams (5)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (1); to losing teams (0)

1. @ UNLV 41-21
2. San Jose State 27-14
3. Arizona State* 20-19
4. Austin Peay 70-3
5. @ #5 Michigan State 24-34
6. Minnesota 41-23
7. #7 Ohio State 31-18
8. @ Iowa 31-30
9. @ Purdue 34-13
10. Indiana 83-20
11. @ Michigan 48-28
12. Northwestern 70-23

A BCS conference team is supposed to be able to gloat about its schedule, but in terms of who they beat, Wisconsin's season isn't much more impressive than TCU's if at all. They played two top 25 teams and beat one of them, and only really beat four teams with winning records (ASU was 6-6 and bowl-ineligible).

But Wisconsin's performances have gotten better throughout the season, ever since the season-defining win over Ohio State. They barely escaped with a win over Iowa, then dominated the last four teams on their schedule. The Badgers' defense stayed pretty uniform, playing mostly average games, but the offense made leaps and bounds and scored an amazing 201 points in their last three games.

One shouldn't get too carried away, however. The three teams they scored 70+ on were I-AA Austin Peay, Indiana, and Northwestern, who rank #415, #143, and #79 in scoring defense nationally. All three games were at home, too. So don't expect a neutral-field game against TCU to go the same, regardless of Wisconsin's improvement. For a better comparison, note the 31 points they scored against Ohio State and Iowa, teams with defenses roughly as good as TCU's.

Key Injuries

Both teams should be basically at full strength for the bowl game.

Psychology: TCU -1    Wisconsin +4

• TCU's season: +0 wins;  Wisconsin's season: +2 wins
• TCU's momentum: +0; Wisconsin's momentum: +1
• TCU glad to be there? -1; Wisconsin glad to be there: +1
• TCU lost final game: -0; Wisconsin lost final game: -0
• TCU coaching situation: +0; Wisconsin coaching situation: +0

I don't think the numbers above mean anything in this contest. Wisconsin is going to be very fired up to be in the Rose Bowl—as any Big Ten team always is—and TCU will be similary psyched to be in a "real" BCS bowl game instead of the "battle of the non-AQs" like last year. There has to be a small amount of resentment that they went undefeated and didn't get to play for the national title, but they were prepared for that eventuality for the whole season.

Will TCU be overwhelmed by the prospect of this big game? It seems that in the last two years when TCU was in fairly high-profile bowl games, they were flat on offense. Both times they faced Boise State so it could be a matchup thing. I can't imagine TCU being flat but they might take some time to settle down and play.

Final analysis

Wisconsin has to be able to run the ball to win the game. If they have any trouble in that department, they don't have the pass to fall back on. If they get their running game going against TCU then maybe the efficient Tolzien can pick his spots and even get some plays through the air. The key will be how TCU handles Wisconsin's power and size. If TCU wins the battle at the line of scrimmage, Wisconsin is sunk. I would expect Wisconsin to push TCU around a bit and have decent running success, but little if any through the air.

TCU's offense has been unstoppable for years—except in their bowl games the last few years where they were flat against Boise twice. They looked somewhat flat against Oregon State and came out with a win, and it seems that even if they have trouble with the Badgers they'll do what they need to do to win.

Wisconsin's offense has been getting better and better throughout the year. In the second half of the season they were a different team. Their monster performances were at the expense of very bad defenses however, and they won't be repeated against TCU. If they want to win they're going to have to physically punish TCU and hope they can run at will by late in the 2nd half. Easier said than done, but they've done it to other teams, even Ohio State to some extent.

The scoring and yardage projections average to about a 12 point TCU win. But Wisconsin is playing about 11 points better in the 2nd half of the season, and it looks like that's going to continue. From there, it's only a point of emotion and Wisconsin could tie the game late, and if it goes into overtime the Badgers probably have the advantage since TCU will be worn down by them. If it doesn't quite get there, though, I think TCU wins in regulation. It's right on the cusp of those two outcomes, so it should be a good game if both teams show up.

Prediction:  TCU 34, Wisconsin 33

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2010-2011 bowl game schedule.

Results & Final Scores of 2010 Military, Texas, and Alamo Bowls: Maryland, Illinois, and Oklahoma State win in blowouts

Three bowls games in one day and all of them were routs from the start. In fact the combined halftime scores of the three games—winners over losers—was 55-19. And in every case, the winning team extended their lead in the second half.

Military Bowl Final Score: Maryland 51, East Carolina 20

Sending fired head coach Ralph Friedgen out with a win, Maryland stomped on East Carolina 51-20 on Da'Rel Scott's 200 yards and D.J. Adams' four rushing touchdowns.

The first quarter was relatively quiet; Danny O'Brien hit Kevin Dorsey for a 45 yard touchdown pass, but there was no other score. Adams had his first TD from the one yard line late in the 2nd quarter, and the teams traded field goals as Maryland took a 16-3 halftime lead into the locker room.

But then East Carolina's defense—and to some extent, their offense—began to show its true colors. The Pirates have one of the nation's worst defenses and usually, one of the most explosive offenses. Dominique Davis—who had 268 passing yards for the game—hit Lance Lewis for a 20 yards touchdown and Michael Barbour added another field goal, but Adams matched those with two more 1-yard touchdown runs, and Maryland led 30-13 late in the 3rd.

That's when Scott exploded. He burst for a 61 yard touchdown run with a minute left in the third, and topped that just minutes later with a 91 yard TD run. Adams got his fourth touchdown—this one all the way out from the four yard-line—and Maryland led 51-13. East Carolina backup Brad Wornick added a meaningless touchdown with minutes left.

East Carolina finished with just 32 rushing yards while Maryland was 3 yards shy of 300. The Pirates fall to 6-7 while Maryland finishes 9-4. I'll ask it again: has there ever been a college football coach fired for taking his team from 2-10 to 9-4?

Texas Bowl Final Score: Illinois 38, Baylor 14

The Texas Bowl played out a lot like the Military Bowl; the winning team took a small first quarter lead, extended it into a moderate halftime lead, and extended it to over 20 points. The winner in this case was Illinois, who dominated as much with defense as offense, though Mikel LeShoure did have 181 rushing yards and three touchdowns.

Illinois' Derek Dimke kicked field goals of 38, 28, and 43 yards as the Illini led 9-0 early in the 2nd quarter. They finally got into the end zone with 10 minutes left in the half on LeShoure's first TD run, a 5 yarder. That was all the score in the first half as Illinois led 16-0.

LeShoure scored early in the 2nd half, this time from 13 yards out. Illinois converted a 2-point attempt and it was 24-0.

Then Robert Griffin finally got going. Hounded by Illinois' pressure throughout the first half and sacked three times, Griffin completed 5 passes and had a 17-yard run on a drive that ended with Jay Finley's 4 yard TD run. Griffen scored again on a 39-yard pass to Kendall Wright and just like that it was 24-14 Illinois with still 14 minutes left to play.

But the Illini were undaunted. LeShoure ran 5 yards for another touchdown, putting Illinois up 31-14, and the defense stopped Griffin inside the Illinois 10 on a 4th and 5. LeShoure was running out the clock when quarterback Nate Scheelhaase broke free for a 55 yard touchdown run to cap the score at 38-14.

Scheelhaase, though overshadowed by LeShoure's, was no slouch; the freshman passed for 242 yards, completing 18 of 23 passes. Griffin had 306 passing yards for Baylor but couldn't run the ball well, netting just 8 yards. Illinois improved to 7-6; Baylor also finished 7-6, losing in their first bowl appearance since 1994.

Alamo Bowl Final Score: Oklahoma State 36, Arizona 10

Third game of the day, third blowout. Brandon Weeden threw for 240 yards and Justin Blackmon had his usual 100+ receiving yards and caught two touchdown passes from Weeden as the Cowboys beat up on the floundering Arizona Wildcats 36-10.

This one had a little more action in the first quarter than the other games. Oklahoma State scored on a 5-yard rush by Jeremy Smith, then Weeden found Blackmon ridiculously wide open for a 71-yard touchdown strike and the Cowboys were up 14-0 just six minutes into the game.

Nick Foles responded just minutes later with a TD toss to Juron Criner. An Oklahoma State field goal close the first quarter with the Cowboys up 17-7. They extended that lead in the second quarter on an interception return; Markelle Martin picked off Foles for 61 yards. There was no further scoring in the half and the score stood Oklahoma State 23, Arizona 7.

The Wildcats managed a field goal early in the third, but that was their last score. Weeden hit Blackmon for another touchdown, this time just 3 yards however. Two Dan Bailey field goals made it 36-10 at the 0:00 mark.

Weeden was 25 of 41 for 240 yards, Foles 32 of 50 for 270 yards. But Arizona's defense never got to Weeden, while Foles was sacked 5 times and intercepted three times by a surprisingly effective Cowboy defense.

Oklahoma State, #14 in the SportsRatings Top 25, finishes the year 11-2. Arizona falls to 7-6 after starting out 7-1.

More College Football Bowls: Go here for the full 2010-2011 schedule with previews and results.

2011 Gator Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Mississippi State vs. Michigan

Saturday January 1: Gator Bowl in Jacksonville, FL at 1:30 pm eastern

#21 Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4) vs. Michigan Wolverines (7-5)

Mississippi State's staunch defense faces Denard Robinson and Michigan.

Vegas line/spread: Miss. State by 4 1/2 (over/under 59 1/2).

Mississippi state is a moderate favorite to win a fairly high-scoring game.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. spread
Miss. State	59.8%	51%
Michigan	40.2%	49%

Mississippi State is #32 in the Strength Power Rating while Michigan is #52. Accordingly when game ratings are compared Mississippi State wins the majority, about 3/5 straight up. Against the spread it's very even.

Strength Power Rating:      Mississippi State 32, Michigan 27

Our Strength Power Rating computes an average score of 32-27, which matches nearly exactly the oddsmakers' spread and over/under. The relatively high scores are indicative both of Michigan's powerful offense (16th in the nation) and troubled defense (91st in the nation), numbers that offset Mississippi State's middling offense (#65) and strong defense (#10).

Yardage analysis:   Miss. St. 41, Michigan 38   per attempt:   Miss. St. 41, Michigan 38

The yardage comparisons predict a wild game with nearly 500 yards of offense per team. The teams' rankings in overall yardage differential—Mississippi State is #23 and Michigan #27—don't clue us into offensive potential, but Michigan's adjusted offensive and defensive rankings do: the Wolverine offense is #2 and their defense is just #110. This suggests that even though the Bulldogs are just #41 on offense they'll have no trouble gaining ground, and even though they're #17 on defense they'll have trouble stopping Michigan.

Interestingly, the per-attempt figures come up with the same score prediction, which is very rare as the two methods of calculation are quite different. It's probably because these teams are fairly balanced between the run and pass, which the per-play figures assume. Both are projected to gain around 4.75 yards per running play and 8.9 per passing play, with Mississippi State slightly higher in each category.

Yardage + turnovers + kick returns projection:  Miss. St. 42, Michigan 35

Mississippi State makes up for their lack of offense by getting a lot of turnovers; they rank #28 in the nation in turnover margin. Michigan is just #82, and they commit a lot. The Bulldogs will probably win the turnover battle by 2, either 2-1 or 3-2. Of course, turnovers are extremely volatile and these are only the most likely occurrences; but on average we can predict that Mississippi State will gain nearly a 4 point advantage.

Mississippi State has the advantage on kick returns. Michigan is poor at punt fielding while the Bulldogs are excellent at coverage; and while kickoff returns are a wash on average, Mississippi State has a touchdown return and Michigan has given up a touchdown. Overall when combined with their turnover advantage it's still closest to 4 points.

When Miss. State has the ball

Miss. State rushing offense: #14

Michigan rushing defense: #80

Mississippi State's strong rushing offense comes from three players who are over 500 for the year led by Vick Ballard who has 905 yards and an egregious 17 touchdowns. QB Chris Relf is 2nd with 671 net and LaDarius Perkins has 526. Michigan's rushing defense is poor and the Bulldogs could have around 250 yards on the ground.

Miss. State passing offense: #91	Michigan passing defense: #116   per att: #111
Miss. State interceptions thrown ranking: #75	Michigan interceptions picked ranking: #61
Miss. State quarterback protection rank: #48	Michigan pass rush rank: #83

Chris Relf is a good runner but as a passer he's not so prolific. For the season he has around 1,500 yards, with 10 touchdowns. He shared time with Tyler Russell early on but estiblished himself as the starter and has nearly double his average yardage over the last two games. Against Michigan he might look like an NFL starter; expect about 230 passing yards for the game, even with top receiver Chad Bumphis out of the game.

Michigan has an average interception rate, and Relf has only thrown five all year (6 others were from Russell's 67 attempts). Michigan should get one interception but probably not any more than that. Though Relf has been vulnerable to pressure, expect an average amount of sacks at most—perhaps 2—from Michigan's tepid pass rush. With a per-attempt yardage ranking of #111 and a per-game rank of #116, there aren't many ways of looking at it: the Wolverines have trouble against the pass, and even Mississippi State can exploit this.

When Michigan has the ball

Michigan rushing offense: #7

Miss. State rushing defense: #8

Denard Robinson is responsible for almost all of Michigan's offense. With 1,643 rushing yards for the year, 14 TDs, and a 6.7 per-carry average (which includes sack losses), Robinson gains yards like a star feature running back. Mississippi State has a rushing defense to match Michigan's offense, so expect Robinson to have under his average of 137 yards, with the team gaining about 215. Vincent Smith and Michael Shaw are the other main contributers.

Michigan passing offense: #31	Miss. State passing defense: #56   per att: #24
Michigan interceptions thrown ranking: #67	Miss. State interceptions picked ranking: #34
Michigan quarterback protection rank: #21	Miss. State pass rush rank: #37

Robinson isn't as good of a passer as a runner, but that's no harsh indictment. He's completed 62% of his passes for 2,316 yards and 16 touchdowns. Backup Tate Forcier saw some time mainly when Robinson was dinged up and added almost 600 yards. WIth Mississippi State's pass defense the easier to exploit, Michigan might go to the air more than usual (though on a per-attempt basis the Bulldogs are better than their per-game numbers indicate). Michigan should have around 250 passing yards if this is the case.

Mississippi State isn't too fearsome when it comes to interceptions, so Robinson (and Forcier if he plays) shouldn't expect to be picked off more than once. And Mississippi State should have just 1 or 2 sacks, as their decent pass rush is offset by Michigan's good protection (and Robinson's elusiveness, as he's been sacked only 7 times).

 

Mississippi State's season

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (4); to losing teams (0)  

1. Memphis 49-7
2. #1 Auburn 14-17 
3. @ #11 LSU 7-29 
4. Georgia 24-12 
5. Alcorn State 49-16 
6. @ Houston 47-24 
7. @ Florida 10-7 
8. UAB 29-24 
9. Kentucky 24-17 
10. @ #15 Alabama 10-30 
11. #8 Arkansas 31-38 2OT
12. @ Mississippi 31-23

Mississippi State is one of those rare teams that has beaten all teams worse than themselves and lost to all those better. They haven't beaten any top 25 teams but they've lost only to top 25 teams. At 8-4, the best team they beat was 7-5 Florida, and the "worst" team they lost to (in terms of record) was 9-3 Alabama.

Two early losses were excuseable—particularly the three point loss to Auburn—and after beating Florida they were ranked. They lost to Alabama big on the road and battled Arkansas into double overtime at home, then beat rival Mississippi to finsh on a high note. After alternating good and bad performances most of the year they've played at their overall average for the last four games. Their offense and defense are pretty variable, though, with the offense ranging from decent to crap, and the defense from decent to excellent.

Michigan's season

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5); to losing teams (0)

1. Connecticut 30-10
2. @ Notre Dame 28-24
3. Massachusetts 42-37
4. Bowling Green 65-21
5. @ Indiana 42-35
6. #5 Michigan State 17-34
7. Iowa 28-38
8. @ Penn State 31-41
9. Illinois 67-65 3OT
10. @ Purdue 27-16
11. #6 Wisconsin 28-48
12. @ #7 Ohio State 7-37

Michigan's season was a lot like Mississippi State's in a way: they beat worse teams and lost to better ones. There's more grey area with the Wolverines, though.

Michigan kicked off the year with their two most impressive wins, beating UConn by 20 and Notre Dame on the road. The next three were unimpressive wins over poor teams, and then the schedule got tough. By this time Robinson was getting dinged up regularly.

Not surprisingly, they lost to Michigan State, Iowa, and with the defense giving up copious amounts of points they fell to Penn State, too. They got a big emotional win when they beat Illinois in triple overtime but weren't competitive in big games against Wisconsin and Ohio State. Overall they were the mirror image of Mississippi State: the offense was good to excellent, and the defense mostly crap.

Key Injuries

Mississippi State will be missing at least one top receiver and maybe two. Leader Chad Bumphis is out for sure, and #5 Leon Berry is doubtful. It shouldn't matter that much against Michigan's pass defense.

Michigan could be without #3 receiver Junior Hemingway, but #4 Martavious Odoms—who played only 6 games this year—could return.

Psychology: Miss. State +2    Michigan -2

• Miss. State's season: +3 wins;  Michigan's season: +2 wins
• Miss. State's momentum: +0; Michigan's momentum: -3
• Miss. State glad to be there? -1; Michigan glad to be there: +1
• Miss. State lost final game: -0; Michigan lost final game: -2
• Miss. State coaching situation: +0; Michigan coaching situation: +?

Both teams had better seasons than last year, but the 2nd half of Michigan's year was rough and they dropped their final two games, whereas Mississsippi State recovered to win their rivalry game against Ole Miss. The "glad to be there" score only reflects the fact that Mississippi State could be playing in a better bowl; in reality they're happy to be at their first bowl since 2007 and playing a team with Michigan's tradition. The Wolverines are in their first bowl since 2007, too.

The real wild card is whether the Wolverines are emotionally fired up to win a game for Rich Rodriguez. If they are, Michigan could play with a lot more spirit and change the game. If they really don't care whether he's fired or not they could come out flat. I don't know what the answer is.

Final analysis

Trying to use logic—always a pitfall in college football—it makes sense that Mississippi State should win the game. Both teams are pretty consistent with who they beat and lose to, the Bulldogs especially. They've beaten all the bowl teams they've faced except for those in the top 25. Michigan would just be another of the above-average teams they've vanquished.

Michigan can't beat top 25 teams, a designation of which Mississippi State is deserved. But early on they beat a couple of teams that were close, UConn and Notre Dame. This suggests that when Denard Robinson was in full health they could play well enough to beat a lower-level top 25 team like 8-4 Mississippi State.

Robinson battled minor injuries in almost every game after the first few and his effectiveness waned. But after a month off he should be back to full strength. So instead of a 7 point Mississippi State win, I think Robinson will be able to tie the game at the end and send it into overtime (or more likely, give them a big lead that the defense will eventually relinquish). But using the logic that Mississippi State will stay consistent I'm taking the Bulldogs in overtime. By late in the game, Robinson might be dinged up again and be less effective, allowing Mississippi State to get a narrow victory.

UPDATE: Changed my mind: Michigan goes for 2 and wins. Logic never works, so Mississippi State is bound to *not* stay consistent. Of course, the two other picks I changed would have been right had I not touched them, so that's one in favor of the Bulldogs.

Prediction:  Michigan 38, Mississippi State 37

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2010-2011 bowl game schedule.

Results of 2010 Champs Sports Bowl - Final Score: North Carolina State 23, West Virginia 7

Russell Wilson took control of his final college game and gave Bill Stewart his first loss as lame duck head coach as North Carolina State took care of West Virginia, 23-7, in the Champs Sports Bowl.

Wilson threw for 275 and 2 TDs and kicker Josh Czajkowski nailed three field goals while Mountaineer mistakes kept them off the board in the second half.

Most of the first quarter was scoreless but Wilson hit Mustafa Greene for a 16-yard score to go up 7-0.

West Virginia tied the game late in the first half, as Geno Smith drove the team downfield and hooked up with Stedman Bailey for a 32 yard touchdown pass. But with two minutes left the Wolfpack were able to get into position for a 45-yard field goal. Halftime score: North Carolina State 10, West Virginia 7.

The second half was all Wolfpack as they slowly but surely padded their lead. Czajkowski hit two 3rd-quarter field goals to make it 16-3. Then in the 4th quarter Jock Sanders muffed a punt inside West Virginia's 10; Wilson hit Jarvis Williams for a 7-yard TD pass to go up 23-7 late in the game.

Meanwhile two Smith fumbles, a Smith interception, a Noel Devine fumble after a long run, and a missed field goal kept the Mountaineers off the board in the 2nd half.

North Carolina State finished the season 9-4, their best year since 2002. West Virginia fell to 8-5, with coach Bill Stewart awkwardly set to coach in 2011 before giving up his position.

More College Football Bowls: Go here for the full 2010-2011 schedule with previews and results.

Results of 2010 Insight Bowl - Final Score: Iowa 27, Missouri 24

Missouri went wild through the air but Iowa responded with a relentless running attack and two key interceptions leading to a 27-24 win over Missouri in the Insight Bowl.

The Hawkeyes, playing without leading rusher Adam Robinson, turned to freshman Marcus Coker who started fall camp the #4 running back. Coker delivered a backbreaking 219 yards on 33 carries and 2 touchdowns, helping offset Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert's 434 passing yards.

Shaking off the effects of a season gone awry, Iowa scored on the opening drive with a long Ricky Stanzi pass completion setting up a 1 yard Coker score. Missouri had to settle for a field goal on their possession as Grant Ressel hit a 23-yarder.

In the second quarter with Iowa facing a 3rd and 1, Coker took the ball just past the yellow line, delivered a jarring hit on a defender in his way, and broke free for a 62 yard touchdown run. Later Iowa added a 34-yard Michael Meyer field goal and led 17-3.

Gabbert came right back, completing six straight passes to give Missouri first down at the Iowa 10; Henry Josey ran it in on the next play. With two minutes left in the half the Tigers got the ball again and did almost exactly the same thing, except that this time Gabbert was intercepted in the end zone. It was the first of two interceptions that turned the outcome of the game to the Hawks; instead of being tied, Iowa went into the locker room holding a 17-10 lead.

Iowa scored an early field goal to extended their lead to 20-10, but Missouri responded with another efficient drive. Gabbert completed 5 of 6 passes before running the ball in himself from the 7 yard line.

Stanzi was intercepted on the 2nd play of Iowa's next drive. Iowa's defense, having no rest from the last series, was starting to look very tired late in the third quarter. Once again, Gabbert conducted a masterful drive, this time mixing up the pass and run as Missouri capitalized on the turnover. Gabbert connected with Michael Egnew for a 3-yard touchdown and Missouri had their first lead of the game at 24-20.

Minutes later Stanzi was intercepted again and the Tigers began to drive; they were in Iowa territory when Gabbert, rolling to his left, tossed a very ill-advised pass that was intercepted by Iowa's Micah Hyde. Hyde took the ball from one sideline all the way to the other, dodging several would-be tacklers, then ran up the field for a touchdown. Iowa led 27-24 with 5:30 left.

Once again, Gabbert led the Tigers into Iowa territory. On 4th and 6 Gabbert hit a sliding T.J. Moe for what was initially ruled a completion despite looking very questionable. The replay actually made the case for a catch a bit more convincing, as Moe had his hands under the ball. It did appear to touch the ground as he slid out of bounds. The officials ruled he had never controlled the ball and Missouri gave it up on downs.

Iowa just needed to run the clock out and, belying their conservative style, called a trick play on 3rd and 3 to get a first down and nearly another touchdown as Stanzi's pass to Allen Reisner went for almost 40 yards to the Missouri one-yard line. Stanzi took a knee, ending his college football career with a win.

Stanzi finished 11 of 21 for 200 yards and two interceptions. Two Missouri receivers—Moe and Jerrell Jackson—finished with over 100 yards in the game. The Tigers ended the season 10-3 with losses to Nebraska and Texas Tech and a win over Oklahoma. Iowa finished 8-5, with all five loss margins at 7 points or fewer.

More College Football Bowls: Go here for the full 2010-2011 schedule with previews and results.

2011 Capital One Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Michigan State vs. Alabama

Saturday January 1: Capital One Bowl in Orlando, FL at 1:00 pm eastern

#5 Michigan State Spartans (11-1) vs. #15 Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3)

An interesting matchup of a Big Ten overachiever and an SEC underachiever.

Vegas line/spread: Alabama by 10 (over/under 52).

Alabama is a very heavy favorite. It's an unusual situation when a 9-3 team is favored so strongly over an 11-1 team if both are from major conferences, but both teams have had unusual seasons.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. spread
Michigan St.	23.5%	58%
Alabama	76.5%	42%

Alabama's game ratings are superior to Michigan State's more than 3/4 of the time. Despite losing three games the Tide rank 6th in the Strength Power Rating, and despite going 11-1 Michigan State ranks a pedestrian #35. We'll look at the teams' schedules later and see why this is.

Even with the spread added in, Alabama remains ahead 58% of the time.

Strength Power Rating:      Alabama 28, Michigan State 16

The Strength Power Rating score projection favors Alabama by even more than the oddsmakers. As mentioned above, Alabama outranks MSU by quite a bit. The score projection is a lot lower than the oddsmakers' over/under; this is because both teams are better on defense, especially Alabama. The Tide once again finished the year #1 in adjusted scoring defense. Alabama's offense is 20th. MSU's defense ranks #38 with their offense #43.

Yardage analysis:   Alabama 33, MSU 14     per attempt:   Alabama 41, MSU 23

One thought I had is: perhaps Michigan State dominates in yardage, thus controlling field position to win games? But they're even lower-rated by yardage differential than by scoring differential. Alabama is #7 (#17 in total offense, #4 total defense) but MSU is only #49 (57th and 39th). All of these figures are adjusted for the teams' opponent difficulty.

The yardage projections predict that Alabama will have over 400 yards of offense and hold MSU to fewer than 300. The per-attempt figures expect a higher scoring game, with Alabama averaging 7 yards a play to Michigan State's 5.

Yardage + turnovers + kick returns projection:  Alabama 34, Michigan State 14

Michigan State is pretty good in turnover margin (#35), but not so good as to explain how they ended up 11-1. Alabama's actually a bit better, at #20, and should win the turnover battle in most cases. There shouldn't be very many, perhaps three total, with the Tide more likely to hold the advantage. This translates to an expected 1 point advantage.

On kick returns Alabama holds the edge but it's not enough to change the score projection. Both have talented punt returners: Keshawn Martin for MSU and Marquis Maze for Alabama are both in the top 15. Alabama is much better on kick returns but they've allowed a touchdown return on coverage.

When Michigan St. has the ball

Michigan St. rushing offense: #42

Alabama rushing defense: #11

The Spartans have some strong runners, lead by Edwin Baker's 1,187 yards and 13 TDs; Le'Veon Bell adds 592 and 8 touchdowns. The two average about 150 yards per game but against Alabama they might only combine for around 100, with the team netting about 120. If their top guys can get close to their average of six yards per carry the Spartans' odds of winning go way up.

Michigan St. passing offense: #64	Alabama passing defense: #9   per att: #7
Michigan St. interceptions thrown ranking: #35	Alabama interceptions picked ranking: #10
Michigan St. quarterback protection rank: #57	Alabama pass rush rank: #61

Junior Kirk Cousins had a great year, completing 68% of his passes for over 2,700 yards and 20 touchdowns. But the Big Ten has generally weak pass defenses so the team ranks about average in terms of passing yards per game. Alabama, meanwhile, has a very strong pass defense. Cousins should have just 170 passing yards for the game in most circumstances.

Making matters worse, the team leader in receptions and touchdown catches, B.J. Cunningham, is out for the game, but MSU has many other solid receivers such as Mark Dell, who leads the team in receiving yards.

Cousins isn't interception-prone, throwing only 9 this year, but Alabama is #10 in pick-offs; d-back Robert Lester has 7 this season. Expect one pick during the game, possibly two. Cousins has less to worry about from Alabama's pass rush which hasn't generated a lot of sacks. They might get two for the game against MSU's similarly average QB protection.

When Alabama has the ball

Alabama rushing offense: #26

Michigan St. rushing defense: #13

Alabama has two of the best running backs in the nation in Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson. But they rank just outside the top 25 in adjusted rushing yards per game. Neither runner truly got on track this year and after some early big games the ground production slipped. Ingram had 816 yards, Richardson 658, but both are very dangerous and could break off a huge run at any time. Michigan State's rushing defense is very solid, however, and Alabama might get around 140 yards as long as MSU doesn't slip up and allow a big one.

Alabama passing offense: #25	Michigan St. passing defense: #85   per att: #45
Alabama interceptions thrown ranking: #5	Michigan St. interceptions picked ranking: #32
Alabama quarterback protection rank: #99	Michigan St. pass rush rank: #77

Greg McElroy has had to do just as much work as the team's star running backs to keep the offense productive. And for the most part he's been successful, completing a stellar 71% for 2,767 yards and 19 touchdowns—numbers comparable to MSU's Cousins. Michigan State gives up a lot more passing yards than Alabama, and with a receiver stable every bit as good as Michigan State's if not better, McElroy could throw for close to 300 yards. Julio Jones has 75 receptions this season for 1,084 yards, and Marquis Maze and Darius Hanks add nearly another 1,000.

McElroy is also better than Cousins in avoiding interceptions; he's thrown just five this year. The Spartans might still get a pick, but it's just a bit over 50% likely. Where MSU should focus is on getting pressure. Though they haven't been effective in that department this year, it's one of Alabama's few weaknesses. They've given up 32 sacks this season, and Michigan State should get 2-3 during the game. Since they likely can't cover Alabama's receivers and can't count on intercepting the ball, getting pressure is their best bet to slow down McElroy.

 

Michigan St.'s season

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (7)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (1); to losing teams (0)    

1. Western Michigan 38-14
2. @ Florida Atlantic 30-17
3. Notre Dame 34-31 OT
4. Northern Colorado 45-7
5. #6 Wisconsin 34-24
6. @ Michigan 34-17
7. Illinois 26-6
8. @ Northwestern 35-27
9. @ Iowa 6-37
10. Minnesota 31-8
11. Purdue 35-31
12. @ Penn State 28-22

Michigan State rates poorly by score margin, and in yardage they rate similarly poorly. They're good but not staggering in turnover margin.  So how did they end up 11-1? There are two ways: either they play at the level of their opponents and do just well enough to win; or, they had a really easy schedule. Which is it?

It appears to be a bit of both. Their schedule wasn't easy per sé (they played 8 bowl teams) but it was bereft of elite teams except for Wisconsin (they didn't play Ohio State). When it got tougher, they (usually) rose to the occasion to beat the better team. How many "better" teams did they face? According to the Strength Power Rating—which ranks them just #35—they played three superior teams: #33 Notre Dame, #25 Iowa, and #12 Wisconsin. The Irish they beat in East Lansing in overtime on a trick play. Iowa they lost to, 37-6. How did they manage to beat the Badgers? After the Notre Dame win Mark Dantonio had a heart attack. The emotion of the big win followed by his hospitalization put the team on a different level temporarily. They smoked Northern Colorado, beat Wisconsin, and took care of Michigan and Illinois fairly easily. Dantonio was back on the sidelines with the team at the Northwestern game and they returned to their former level of play. Then came Iowa.

The Spartans finished out the year at about their true level: good enough to beat Minnesota, Purdue, and Penn State but hardly an elite team.

Alabama's season

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (5)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (2)
Losses (3); to losing teams (0)

1. San Jose State 48-3
2. Penn State 24-3
3. @ Duke 62-13
4. @ #8 Arkansas 24-20
5. Florida 31-6
6. @ #20 South Carolina 21-35
7. Mississippi 23-10
8. @ Tennessee 41-10
9. @ #11 LSU 21-24
10. #21 Mississippi State 30-10
11. Georgia State 63-7
12. #1 Auburn 27-28

Alabama played like a national champion in their first five games, particularly on defense. They survived a big challenge from Arkansas but were tripped up by South Carolina. They played just as poorly in beating Ole Miss the next week but came back strong against Tennessee.

They still had a great chance at the national title, since they were on a collision course with Auburn. But they played another sloppy, less-than-enthusiastic game against LSU and lost. A BCS bowl still appeared likely if they won out, and they dominated Mississippi State, then Georgia State, then Auburn—for the first half. Leading 24-0 they got sloppy again; they should have had a few more touchdowns by halftime when they led 24-7. Cam Newton led the comeback and Alabama finished 9-3.

Still one of the best teams in the nation, Alabama can beat anybody. But when they play uninspired football they're vulnerable to lose to a team that does play inspired football—a team like Michigan State.

Key Injuries

The Spartans' loss of B.J. Cunningham hurts but the receiver corps is deep. Michigan State lost a lot more receivers last year and did okay, so this shouldn't be a deal-breaker. Alabama will be without safety Mark Barron, which should at least even things out for MSU losing Cunningham.

Both teams' quarterbacks were ailing after their last games but both are expected to be at full strength come January 1st.

Psychology: Michigan St. +2    Alabama -5

• Michigan St.'s season: +5 wins;  Alabama's season: -4 wins
• Michigan St.'s momentum: -1; Alabama's momentum: -2
• Michigan St. glad to be there? -2; Alabama glad to be there: +2
• Michigan St. lost final game: -0; Alabama lost final game: -1
• Michigan St. coaching situation: +0; Alabama coaching situation: +0

Some of the numbers above don't tell the story correctly. The "glad to be there" score is about how good a team's record is for the bowl they attained, and Michigan State has the -2 because they feel they should be in a BCS bowl. But they're more than excited to be facing Alabama. Likewise Alabama at 9-3 is facing an 11-1 opponent, but they wanted the national championship game again. So I'd X those numbers out and focus on the first line: Michigan State has 5 more wins than last year at this time, and Alabama has 4 fewer. That's about how far apart these teams are emotionally, a big edge for Michigan State.

Final analysis

Michigan State is not good enough to beat Alabama on talent, but if they play inspired football and Alabama doesn't, then the Spartans will win the game. Michigan State played their best football when emotions were running high due to their coaches' illness. Alabama's malaise seemed to come and go.

I think that the Tide will be less than fired up to play in this bowl game when they were thinking Repeat National Champs all off-season. So we may see a version of that Alabama squad.

Michigan State, meanwhile, will be ready to take on Alabama. They're having a great season. They won't be as good as they were mid-season, but they'll play at the highest level they're currently capable of.

I just don't think it will be quite enough. Matching talent to talent, Alabama beats the Spartans as badly as Iowa did. But Michigan State plays with a lot more heart, and that will keep things close. It might even put them over the top.

Prediction:  Alabama 31, Michigan State 27

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2010-2011 bowl game schedule.

Results of 2010 Independence Bowl - Final Score: Air Force 14, Georgia Tech 7

Think these teams were familiar with each others' offenses? Defense ruled the day as Air Force beat Georgia Tech 14-7 to win the Independence Bowl. Two field goals, a touchdown and a 2-point conversion were enough to put the Falcons ahead, and a last-minute interception kept them there.

Air Force scored first on a 42-yard field goal but the Yellow Jackets took the lead with a 5-yard Anthony Allen TD run. Both scores took place in what was a wild first quarter, at least compared to the rest of this game.

The only other score in the half came with two seconds left, as Air Force's Zack Bell kicked his second field goal, a 41-yarder this time, to draw the Falcons within 1. At the half it was Georgia Tech 7, Air Force 6.

Georgia Tech received the 2nd half kickoff and from their own 18 embarked on a mammoth, 18-play drive that ended with a Tevin Washington fumble on Air Force's 5 yard line. That was the first of three costly Georgia Tech mistakes.

The second and third were muffed punts. Air Force recovered the second one on Georgia Tech's 14 yard line and scored three plays later, with Jared Tew taking it in from the 3. They went for two and made it, putting the Falcons ahead by 7, 14-7.

After forcing a punt Air Force went on a mammoth drive of their own, moving from their 9 to Georgia Tech's 20 in 17 plays and taking over 9 minutes off the clock. They, too, came up empty on a missed field goal.

The Yellow Jackets had one last chance, and Washington did a good job of calmly driving down the field as receivers got out of bounds to preserve the clock. But Jon Davis intercepted Washington with 20 seconds left and sealed the Air Force win.

Tim Jefferson finished with 116 passing yards to Washington's 40 for Georgia Tech, but the Yellow Jackets outgained Air Force 279 to 170 on the ground. Washington—playing in place of the injured Josh Nesbitt—had 131 and Allen 91 while Tew led Air Force with 58.

Air Force finished the season 9-4 with losses to 12-0 TCU, 10-2 Oklahoma, 10-3 Utah, and 9-4 San Diego State. Georgia Tech fell to 6-7.

More College Football Bowls: Go here for the full 2010-2011 schedule with previews and results.

2011 Outback Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Florida vs. Penn State

Saturday January 1: Outback Bowl in Tampa, FL at 1:00 pm eastern

Florida Gators (7-5) vs. Penn State State (7-5)

The Outback Bowl scored a pretty good matchup thanks to two underachieving teams.

Vegas line/spread: Florida by 7 (over/under 48).

Florida is a touchdown favorite in what is seen as a somewhat lower-scoring game.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. spread
Florida	77.1%	63%
Penn State	22.9%	37%

With Florida 28th and Penn State 58th, the Gators win the majority of game comparisons and are heavily favored by this system. While Florida has played very good and poor games, Penn State is pretty consistent so it appears that Florida "decides" who wins this one. We've also given them home field advantage in the numbers above; giving them only half HFA reduces their odds in both columns by a few percentage points.

Strength Power Rating:      Florida 29, Penn State 17

Again with full home field advantage Florida is a 12 point favorite by the Strength Power Rating, but since they're playing in Tampa they should only get a point or two, not full HFA. Still, that's a 10 or 11 point spread.

Both offenses have struggled this year, and that's why the projected over/under is somewhat low. FLorida is 29th in adjusted scoring offense, Penn State a dismal 74th. Penn State is a more respectable #42 in scoring defense and the Gators are 30th.

Yardage analysis:   Florida 24, Penn St 17     per attempt:   Florida 28, Penn St 17

The teams' yardage rankings aren't all that different from their score-based power rating rankings. Florida is 29th and Penn State is #46 in yardage differential (yardage gained vs. yielded) adjusted for their opponents. But when converted to a score projection the yardage numbers yield a tighter game with a 7-point spread. With just partial HFA it's Florida 23, Penn State 17.

The per-attempt figures (uses per-play yardage averages rather than per-game) pop Florida back to an 11-point favorite, with Florida holding a big advantage in projected yards per carry on the ground (5.0 to 3.3). This would allow Florida to control the clock, as both teams' passing games show a low per-attempt result.

Yardage + turnovers + kick returns projection:  Florida 25, Penn St 17

Florida is slightly more likely to win the turnover battle, with both teams getting two turnovers in a normal game. The averages are 1.9 to 1.7, with Florida's gains coming from interceptions which are more predictable than fumbles. The total projected advantage is less than a point in the end.

The kick return game tilts very slightly to the Gators. Penn State has the edge in punt returns as their fielding is better and Florida's coverage poor. But on kickoffs Florida ranks #4 in the nation and Andre Debose has taken two returns back for touchdowns. The overall edge, though, is small and perhaps when added to Florida's turnover advantage adds up to a point total.

When Florida has the ball

Florida rushing offense: #31

Penn State rushing defense: #62

Florida's ground game never became the feared attack that it was expected to, but the Gators did pretty well rushing the ball. As was common for the last several seasons no superstar running back emerged, but six different players rushed for more than 250 yards led by Jeffery Demps' 531. Penn State's rushing defense is merely average at best so Florida should have around 180 yards.

Florida passing offense: #78	Penn State passing defense: #19   per att: #43
Florida interceptions thrown ranking: #41	Penn State interceptions picked ranking: #66
Florida quarterback protection rank: #45	Penn State pass rush rank: #108

There were high hopes for John Brantley coming into the season but he got off to a rocky start and only managed 2,020 passing yards for the season with a paltry 9 touchdowns. Tight end Jordan Reed saw some "wildcat" action but rarely passed the ball, adding 3 TD passes. The Lions' pass defense is pretty good at limiting yardage and Florida might be held under 170 yards through the air.

Brantley and co. aren't all that interception-prone and Penn State isn't a big interception threat, so the Nittany Lions pick off a pass only about 2/3 of the time. Florida's offensive line has given up 22 sacks but Penn State isn't a big sack threat; there will probably only be one sack during the game from the Lions' pass rush, if that. In short, even though great production is not expected out of Brantley in this game, there aren't a lot of impediments to trying for more.

When Penn State has the ball

Penn State rushing offense: #44

Florida rushing defense: #25

Evan Royster took a while to get on track but he finished with 916 yards, still below last year's total. Freshman Silas Redd added 424 with a good 6.1 average. Florida has a stout rushing defense and Royster might have to work hard to reach 100 yards, with about 130 for the team as a whole.

Penn State passing offense: #62	Florida passing defense: #11   per att: #13
Penn State interceptions thrown ranking: #54	Florida interceptions picked ranking: #5
Penn State quarterback protection rank: #26	Florida pass rush rank: #88

Robert Bolden was famously the first true freshman to start at quarterback for Joe Paterno, but he was injured mid-season and Matthew McGloin took over. Immediately the offense was more productive and McGloin. Both Bolden and McGloin have completed 58% of their passes and both have just over 1,300 passing yards, but McGloin has a 13:4 TD:int ratio while Bolden's is 5:7. Against Florida's tough pass defense things won't be easy, but McGloin should have over 180 passing yards.

Compared team vs. team, Florida's excellent secondary should have upwards of two interceptions during the game, but McGloin is less interception-prone than Bolden; he has only 4 this season. So Florida might get only one pick this game, particularly without Janoris Jenkins in the game. Florida's defense will probably only get a single sack, at they've been less effective this year and Penn State's O-line has done a good job of protection. So just like Florida, Penn State's passing game won't get a lot of payoff per-attempt, but there isn't great risk in continuing to try.

 

Florida's season

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (5)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5); to losing teams (0)  

1. Miami (OH) 34-12
2. South Florida 38-14
3. @ Tennessee 31-17
4. Kentucky 48-14
5. @ #15 Alabama 6-31
6. #11 LSU 29-33
7. #21 Mississippi State 7-10
8. Georgia 34-31 OT
9. @ Vanderbilt 55-14
10. #20 South Carolina 14-36
11. Appalachian State 48-10
12. @ Florida State 7-31

Florida's performances were up-and-down, mostly due to their offense. The early games were a bit sloppy due to Brantley's new-starter status but the running game kept things going. Yet after QB Trey Burton scored 6 touchdowns against Kentucky the team managed just 6 points against Alabama. Mississippi State and Florida State held them to 7 points.

They split close games with LSU and Georgia, and South Carolina handled the Gators pretty easily. They didn't beat a ranked team all year, but their losses were to strong teams and they beat five bowl teams. In short, they became the middling SEC team that so many other squads had been relegated to be in recent years when Florida was dominant.

Penn State's season

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5); to losing teams (0)

1. Youngstown State 44-14
2. @ #15 Alabama 3-24
3. Kent State 24-0
4. Temple 22-13
5. @ Iowa 3-24
6. Illinois 13-33
7. @ Minnesota 33-21
8. Michigan 41-31
9. Northwestern 35-21
10. @ #7 Ohio State 14-38
11. @ Indiana 41-24
12. #5 Michigan State 22-28

At what point was it obvious that Penn State wasn't a great team? And when did they recover to became a good team?

The Alabama loss didn't make it obvious, since Alabama was #1 in the polls at the time the Tide beat them roughly the same as they later beat Florida. The Lions shut out Kent State, but needed to come back against Temple. Those were further warning signs. Iowa handled them easily, but Iowa was well-regarded at the time. The Illinois loss, however, put Penn State on track to a losing season in many minds. Losing at home by 20 to a team that went 3-9 last year? Bad news. Worse news, their starting quarterback was hurt.

But that's when Penn State started playing well on offense. A shaky win at Minnesota was followed by a road-race win against Michigan and after beating Northwestern they were back to 6-3. They fell to Ohio State and, after a battle, to Michigan State, but avoided the fate many had forecast for them following the Illinois debacle.

And after the Illinois game, they were very consistent on offense and defense. Good, but not great.

Key Injuries

Florida has a variety of possible issues. D-back Janoris Jenkins is out with a shoulder injury; he has three interceptions this year and his absence gives a little more hope to Penn State's passing game. Starting defensive tackles Lawrence Marsh and Terron Sanders are also gone. On offense, right tackle Maurice Hurt is out; leading rusher Jeffrey Demps will likely play but could be slowed with an ankle injury; and sometimes-QB Jordan Reed is recovering from a concussion.

Penn State has fewer problems. Punter Anthony Fera might remain out, but they could get back a couple of players on defense than have missed time.

Psychology: Florida +0    Penn State -3

• Florida's season: -5 wins;  Penn State's season: -3 wins
• Florida's momentum: -1; Penn State's momentum: +1
• Florida glad to be there? +0; Penn State glad to be there: +0
• Florida lost final game: -1; Penn State lost final game: -1
• Florida coaching situation: +7; Penn State coaching situation: +0

The teams are in basically the same situation, save one element. Both had far less satisfying seasons and lost their final game (indeed both lost two of their last three). Penn State made a bit of a recovery, so Florida's year was a bigger bust overall.

But when Urban Meyer announced his retirement, that likely gave Florida a big emotional boost. Players like to send their coach out with a win, and even though Meyer pulled this trick last year so far he hasn't taken it back. It's at least enough to wipe out the lingering effects of the disappointing year.

Final analysis

Penn State will be Penn State. They didn't play with much variability throughout the year, and I don't expect anything too crazy from them on January 1st. The offense got a lot better when McGloin took over, but the defense downgraded a bit and remained level for the last six games. In total I'd say they're playing about 4 points better in the last six games than in the first six, so adding 2 points over their season average is warranted.

Both teams should be able to pass the ball safely but for the most part ineffectively. The difference is that Penn State may have trouble running the ball on Florida whereas the Gators should move it on the ground much more easily; Demps may be gone or hobbled but they have plenty of other options available as always.

All of the injuries to Florida's starters will impact the game somewhat but shouldn't be the deciding factor. The defense is hurt the most, with three starters out. This further adds to Penn State's offensive possibilities as Florida's defensive line will be weakened.

Whereas Penn State's performance is predictable, Florida can go either way, playing a solid game or a poor one, with the offense being the main variable. Meyer's retirement should spark the "good" Florida offense to emerge and with it the Gators should send him off with a win.

Prediction:  Florida 31, Penn State 21

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2010-2011 bowl game schedule.

Results of Little Caesars Pizza Bowl - Final Score: Florida International 34, Toledo 32

T.Y. Hilton's dynamic kickoff return touchdown sparked Florida International to a thrilling come-from-behind win in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl, 34-32 over Toledo. The win came in FIU's first-ever bowl appearance.

The return came early in the 3rd quarter after Toledo had taken a 17 point lead on the Panthers. The Rockets dominated the first half, with Adonis Thomas scoring twice—on runs of 4 and 87 yards—to give Toledo a 14-0 lead. The Panthers got on the board with a 1-yard Darriet Perry TD run, but Terrence Owens found Danny Noble on a 10-yard touchdown strike to extend the lead back to 14, 21-7 at the end of the half.

The second half looked like more of the same early as Toledo drove downfield and added three more points to their total on a Danny Noble field goal. Then Hilton struck.

Taking the ball at the 11 yard line, he made a quick slant move and he sped past defenders trying to keep up while moving sideways. He dashed down the sidelines and, once all alone, practically walked into the end zone. The momentum shifted dramatically to FIU.

The Panthers intercepted Owens three plays later, leading to another Perry touchdown run to cut the lead to three, 24-21. As the 3rd quarter ended FIU intercepted Owens again in Toledo territory, but Wesley Carroll had the ball intercepted back by the Rockets.

But no matter; FIU's defense came up with yet another interception, and this time Carroll hooked up with Hilton for a 10-yard score to take their first lead, 28-24 with 7:30 left in the game.

By this point it was clear to the announcers that FIU was able to intercept not just Toledo's passes but also their offensive signals from the sidelines; they seemed to know with great certainty which plays would be passing or running plays. Whatever they were doing, it was working: the defense stopped Toledo again, then blocked the 4th down punt leading to a 31-yard field goal by Jack Griffin, extending the FIU lead to 7 points, 31-24 with about 3 minutes left.

Toledo's offense had one more chance, and they made the most of it. After converting on a 4th down in FIU territory, it was Owens who dashed 14 yards into the end zone to bring the Rockets within one. Toledo head coach Tim Beckman decided to go for two points and the lead and they got it as Owens found Eric Page in the end zone. Toledo led 32-31 with 1:14 left.

The Rockets gave up midfield position on the kickoff in order to avoid Hilton, but got a big sack to put the Panthers back on their own 40 facing 4th and 17. But FIU head coach Mario Cristobal pulled out the "Boise" as they call it, and ran the hook-and-lateral with Carroll passing to Jacob Younger, who lateraled to Hilton. Hilton was still several yards short but two big steps near the sideline—the 2nd of which was right at the edge of the field—helped him cross the first down line as he went out of bounds. The play was reviewed and stood as called, and FIU was back in business.

Carroll found Greg Ellingson to put the Panthers in field goal position, and on the last play Griffin nailed a 34 yard field goal that won the game, 34-32, for Florida International.

Carroll finished with 140 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 interception, while Perry had 131 rushing yards and two TDs. Ellingson was the top receiver for the Panthers but it was Hilton's return that made the difference and turned the game around.

Owens had 131 passing yards and one touchdown to go with his three interceptions for the Rockets. Thomas had 194 yards, most of them in the first half.

FIU finished the year 7-6 and is now 1-0 all-time in bowl game appearances; Ohio fell to 8-5.

More College Football Bowls: Go here for the full 2010-2011 schedule with previews and results.

2011 TicketCity Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Texas Tech vs. Northwestern

Saturday January 1: TicketCity in Dallas, TX at Noon eastern

Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-5) vs. Northwestern Wildcats (7-5)

Two 7-5 teams does not a proper New Year's Day bowl make, but these teams are historically fun to watch.

Vegas line/spread: Texas Tech by 9 1/2 (over/under 60).

For a variety of reasons Texas Tech is a big favorite to win a higher-scoring game.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. spread
Texas Tech	71.4%	54%
Northwestern	28.6%	46%

Texas Tech only ranks 55th—just above average—in the Strength Power Rating. But Northwestern is a lowly #80, about 2/3 of the way down the chart. Most of the Red Raiders' game ratings are well above those of Northwestern, with or without considering home field advantage.

When the large spread is factored in they still win the majority—unless we take away home field advantage, in which case Northwestern wins just over 51%. Interestingly the 50/50 point against the spread comes when we give Texas Tech 0.75 points worth of home field advantage.

Strength Power Rating:      Texas Tech 35, Northwestern 24

The teams' power rating scores point to a 9 point advantage for Texas Tech, which approaches 12 points if full home advantage is used. The Red Raiders are much better on offense (#40 in adjusted scoring) than defense (#63), while Northwestern is equally low-rated (#78, #76) in both. This results in a moderately high score prediction, nearly matching the oddsmakers' estimate. The score numbers here include full home field advantage, but happen to round to make an 11 point margin which is probably more accurate for a team not strictly playing on their home field.

Yardage analysis: Texas Tech 45, N'western 34  per attempt:   N'Western 29, Texas Tech 28

These teams' rankings are much the same by yardage as they are by scoring. Texas Tech ranks 56th and Northwestern 77th in yardage differential, and the predicted margin is the same 11 points. The offensive and defensive components are much more skewed toward offense, however, with Tech ranking #22 and Northwestern #43 while their defenses rank a poor #95 and #104! That's why the score projection from the yardage numbers is so much higher than the pure score-based numbers in the section above. According to these estimates, Texas Tech should have over 500 yards of total offense and Northwestern well above 400 yards. Remember, this is a full-season estimate that doesn't take into account injuries and player losses (see When Northwestern has the ball)

The per-attempt numbers show Northwestern with a better overall per-attempt yardage and suggest that if they control time of possession they can win a close game.

Yardage + turnovers + kick returns projection:  Texas Tech 45,  Northwestern 35

These teams are very close (#76 and #78) in adjusted turnover margin. Texas Tech is expected to gain two turnovers in this game and commit just under two. So in most games the situation is a wash, but the Red Raiders' slim statistical advantage works out to nearly half a point for projection purposes, hardly a significant amount.

Northwestern has the advantage on kick returns, with a bigger chance for a game changing play. On punts they rank #4 in coverage while Texas Tech is just #87 in fielding, limiting the Raiders odds of a big play to near zero. The kickoff rankings are more even, but Northwestern has two good kickoff returners including Venric Mack (27.6 average, 1 TD) while Texas Tech has allowed two TD returns this year. Overall Northwestern gains nearly 1 1/2 points in the projection, for a net of one point total.

When Texas Tech has the ball

Texas Tech rushing offense: #91

N'western rushing defense: #93

Texas Tech is still a passing team under Tommy Tuberville, but Baron Batch has had some great games this year. He and Eric Stephens combine for over 1,300 yards and 4.7 yards per carry. Northwestern's rushing defense isn't great and the Raiders should have around 160 ground yards.

Texas Tech passing offense: #7	N'western passing defense: #100   per att: #55
Texas Tech interceptions thrown ranking: #42	N'western interceptions picked ranking: #48
Texas Tech quarterback protection rank: #56	N'western pass rush rank: #103

Texas Tech is once again near the top of the passing charts. Not *on* top as they were a few years ago, but still in the top ten. Northwestern gives up a lot of passing yards so expect about 350 passing yards for Taylor Potts and crew.

Potts has thrown for 3,357 yards, completed 66%, and has 31 TD passes, which are the reasons why he's kept the starting job ahead of Steven Sheffield, who hasn't matched his level of play from last season. As usual Tech has a clutch of talented receivers, with Lyle Leong and Detron Lewis the stars. Both have just over 800 yards, with Lewis leading in receptions (79) and Leong in touchdowns (17).

Potts has thrown only 9 interceptions, so Northwestern probably won't get more than one on him, and probably only one sacks as well since Northwestern's pass rush isn't that scary. It will be a challenge for the Wildcats to find a way to deal with Texas Tech's passing game.

When Northwestern has the ball

Northwestern rushing offense: #47

Tx Tech rushing defense: #73

Northwestern has had a more balanced offense this year, mainly because of Dan Persa's running ability. He and freshman Mike Trumpy are both just over 500 yards for the year. Normally, against Texas Tech's sub-par rushing defense they'd have around 170 yards, but without Persa they lose one of their main ground weapons. They've done well on the ground in the two games without him, but there might not be enough runners available to continue picking up the slack (see Injuries).

Northwestern passing offense: #53	Tx Tech passing defense: #110   per att: #75
Northwestern interceptions thrown ranking: #56	Tx Tech interceptions picked ranking: #28
Northwestern quarterback protection rank: #119	Tx Tech pass rush rank: #46

While Northwestern's ground game hasn't suffered without Persa, passing yards took a nosedive without him. Persa would have had a field day against Texas Tech's terrible pass defense, probably approaching 300 yards. The projection calls for 268 yards but that includes the 10 games where Persa played; without him they've been getting 129 yards per game, so I'd expect fewer than 200 in the bowl, maybe even 150. With the extra practice, backup Evan Watkins might gain a better rapport with receivers such as Jeremy Ebert (919 yards, 8 TDs) and have a better outing than his first two.

Interceptions weren't a problem for Northwestern under Persa, who had just 4 in 302 attempts. Before the last two games the Wildcats were #14 in avoiding interceptions. But Even Watkins and Kain Colter combined for 5 interceptions in the last 2 games—every 1 in 9 pass attempts—and sunk them to #56. For the last two games they were certainly #120. So the statistical estimate of 1.22 interceptions for Texas Tech is almost certainly on the low side.

Northwestern has been uniformly bad at protecting the quarterback, whether the QB in question was Persa (34 sacks) or Watkins (5 sacks in 49 attempts). So the estimate of around 4 sacks during the game stands. Between the pressure he'll face and his propensity for picks, Watkins is going to have a lot to deal with that could prevent him from taking advantage of Texas Tech's poor pass coverage.

 

Texas Tech's season

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (5); to losing teams (2)    

1. Southern Methodist 35-27
2. @ New Mexico 52-17
3. Texas 14-24
4. @ Iowa State 38-52
5. Baylor 45-38
6. #14 Oklahoma State 17-34
7. @ Colorado 27-24
8. @ #16 Texas A&M 27-45
9. #12 Missouri 24-17
10. @ #13 Oklahoma 7-45
11. Weber State 64-21
12. Houston 35-20

Texas Tech's season started slow and never really got on track. The early loss to Texas dampened their spirits enough that they couldn't hang with Iowa State the next week and the Red Raiders were 2-2 under their new coach.

The Baylor win was a good comeback, but Oklahoma State and Texas A&M beat them easily, while they barely got by Colorado. At this point they were a very unimpressive 4-4. Then they got their big win, beating Missouri, and though Oklahoma killed them, the Red Raiders finished with two wins. In all, the season wasn't a disaster but was pretty uninspiring. They had just 3 bowl-team victories and two losses to losing squads. The offense was great some weeks and terrible others, while the defense ranged from pretty good to abominable.

Northwestern's season

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (1)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5); to losing teams (1)

1. @ Vanderbilt 23-21
2. Illinois State 37-3
3. @ Rice 30-13
4. Central Michigan 30-25
5. @ Minnesota 29-28
6. Purdue 17-20
7. #5 Michigan State 27-35
8. @ Indiana 20-17
9. @ Penn State 21-35
10. Iowa 21-17
11. Illinois 27-48
12. @ #6 Wisconsin 23-70

Northwestern only beat one team—Iowa—that qualified for a bowl game. And late in that game they lost Dan Persa and were destroyed in their final two outings.

The Wildcats started out 5-0, but a very mediocre 5-0, beating 2-10 Vandy, I-AA Illinois State, 4-8 Rice, 3-9 Central Michigan, and 3-9 Minnesota before falling at home to 4-8 Purdue. Hanging on against Michigan State was one of their biggest accomplishments.

They beat Indiana (5-7) by just a field goal, then lost three of their last four games convincingly. They beat Iowa after trailing late and strangely, the defense collapsed when they lost Persa. Some of that probably had to do with the offense no longer able to keep opponents' offenses off the field. The Wildcats still scored 50 points in the last two games, as there was little urgency on the part of their opponents to stop them. Also, two of those touchdowns came from an interception and kick return.

Key Injuries

Northwester suffered the biggest loss—quarterback Dan Persa—in game 10 against Iowa. Persa is the team's 2nd leading rusher, but what they'll really miss is his passing, as backup Evan Watkins hasn't been as effective.

But the running game is hurt as well. Northwestern could conceivably be without all four of their top rushers. The certainties are #2 Persa and #3 Arby Fields, who quit the team at the end of the regular season. #1 Mike Trumpy missed the last game with a wrist injury and is probable but not certain, and #4 Jacob Schmidt missed the last five games and may or may not be back.

Texas Tech is in much better shape, with a few players out on offense and defense that should be back for the bowl game.

Psychology: Texas Tech +1    Northwestern -5

• Texas Tech's season: -1 wins;  Northwestern's season: -1 wins
• Texas Tech's momentum: +1; Northwestern's momentum: -3
• Texas Tech glad to be there? +1; Northwestern glad to be there: +1
• Texas Tech lost final game: -0; Northwestern lost final game: -2
• Texas Tech coaching situation: +0; Northwestern coaching situation: +0

Both teams finished with a worse record than last year. On the bright side, they're playing on New Year's Day, regardless. The main factor I see is Northwestern's losing streak. Both of their last two games were lopsided losses. It can't give them too much confidence that they played so poorly once Persa went out.

Northwestern is still seeking its first bowl win since 1948, so that alone should give them some motivation in this game. They've done better than expected in their bowl appearances the last two years, taking both Missouri and Auburn into overtime despite being 12 and 9 point underdogs.

Final analysis

Northwestern just has far too many problems on offense for me to think they can win this game. Their running game is weakened to the point where Texas Tech's defense is a match for it, and the passing game is broken without Persa. Northwestern's QB protection is terrible; Persa's mobility and running ability allowed him to deal with that fact, but Watkins doesn't have Persa's running skill or passing accuracy. He also throws interceptions, something Persa avoided. So even though Texas Tech's pass defense is awful (it's worst in the nation in raw numbers, and 110th when corrected for the excellent passing teams they've faced), poor QB protection and Watkins' inexperience puts a damper on Northwestern's hopes for exploiting the Red Raiders' weaknesses.

The Wildcats' only hope on offense is that Watkins makes a big leap during the off month, and that a few of their running backs can return reasonably healthy. Even then, they have to keep up with Texas Tech's offense.

Texas Tech can probably run the ball well on Northwestern, enough to keep them honest when trying to defend the pass. And Northwestern's pass defense isn't very good. They can hope for big plays, but that would just be hope—Potts doesn't get intercepted all that much, and Northwestern doesn't get very many sacks at all.

Northwestern's only chance is that they somehow repeat their gutsy performances of the last two years in bowl games. Their attempts to get their first modern-era bowl win—and perhaps their foes underestimating them—seems to have been worth 10 points per game. We picked those as very close games, too, so there were other reasons, reasons we don't see in this game. They also had an experienced quarterback in those outing, something they won't have on New Year's Day, so I don't see them keeping this one very close.

Prediction:  Texas Tech 35, Northwestern 17

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2010-2011 bowl game schedule.

2010 Chick-fil-A Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: South Carolina vs. Florida State

Friday December 31: Chick-fil-A Bowl in Atlanta, GA at 7:30 pm eastern

#20 South Carolina Gamecocks (9-4) vs. Florida State Seminoles (9-4)

Two BCS conference runners-up clash in Atlanta.

Vegas line/spread: South Carolina by 3 (over/under 54.5)

The Gamecocks are favored by a field goal.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. spread
South Carolina	49.3%	44%
FSU	50.7%	56%

South Carolina and Florida State are about as even as can be in our main power rating. Florida State wins a sliver more game comparisons than South Carolina, and since they're the underdog they cover most of the time. Both teams are in the lower reaches of the top 25 in the power rating.

Strength Power Rating:      South Carolina 26.56, Florida State 26.55

This is how close the teams are when using the All-Division Strength Power Rating, which uses game results of teams in Division I, II, III and NAIA. With both teams' offenses and defenses in the top 25, there's only a 0.01 point difference in the projected score. Florida State's scoring offense and South Carolina' scoring defense both rank #20, while the Gamecock offense and Seminole defense are 25th and 24th. Call it South Carolina in double overtime?

Yardage analysis:   S. Carolina 28, FSU 21     per attempt:   S. Carolina 33, FSU 27

The Gamecocks hold a clearer advantage in yardage, ranking 17th in differential (yards gained - yards yielded, adjusted for competition) to #35 for FSU. They hold a slight lead in total offense (31st to 36th) but a big advantage in total defense (14th to 42nd). In an average game South Carolina should have about 400 total yards to around 350 for the Seminoles, and that translates into a touchdown spread. The per-attempt figures yield a similar result.

Yardage + turnovers + kick returns projection:  S. Carolina 28, FSU 21

Assuming an average game between the two teams, not much changes when turnovers and kick returns are considered.

South Carolina holds a slim advantage in turnover margin. Both teams are very good ranking #21 and #23 for all types of turnovers, and in an "average game" the Gamecocks will gain 1.8 turnovers and FSU 1.7. That translates into 3/10 of a point. What's interesting is that for South Carolina, 1.5 of the 1.8 are on fumble recoveries; they rank #2 in fumble recoveries and FSU is just 75th in holding onto the ball. Since fumbles are less predictable than interceptions, South Carolina's slight advantage is probably negligible.

And any edge they have goes away after considering the kick return game. Neither team is particularly great at either punt or kickoff returns, nor at covering kicks, so their chances of having or giving up a big play are even closer to random.

When South Carolina has the ball

South Carolina rushing offense: #31

FSU rushing defense: #32

Freshman sensation Marcus Lattimore is the heart of South Carolina's rushing offense. He has almost 1,200 yards and 17 TDs this season. Florida State's rushing defense is good, so this will be a key area of battle during the game. The Gamecocks should manage about 150 yards on the ground, which means Lattimore have around 100. If he has considerably more, South Carolina is in good shape.

South Carolina passing offense: #38	FSU passing defense: #53   per att: #36
South Carolina interceptions thrown ranking: #47	FSU interceptions picked ranking: #59
South Carolina quarterback protection rank: #65	FSU pass rush rank: #2

After several years of mixed reviews, Stephen Garcia finally had the type of year expected of him for so long. Completing 65% of his passes, Garcia threw for 2,816 yards and 20 touchdowns. Alshon Jeffery was a big reason, pulling in 79 catches for 1,387 yards and 9 TDs. Based on the per-game adjusted numbers, Garcia should have just under 250 passing yards for the game.

Of course, that assumes that he has time to throw, something that might not happen if Florida State's defense has anything to say about it. Florida State is #2 in the country in sacks, with linemen Brandon Jenkins (13) and Markus White (8) the big threats. The Gamecocks have been about average in QB protection, which means that FSU should have an "average" amount of sacks: 3 or 4 for the game. Garcia is better than his backups at avoiding sacks, so 3 might be more likely. Still, there will be lots of pressure and it could seriously impact their main offensive plan.

Garcia has less to worry about vis a vis interceptions; FSU should get about 1 during the game as they are only average in that aspect.

When FSU has the ball

FSU rushing offense: #27

South Carolina rushing defense: #2

FSU doesn't have any stars but their top three runners combined for over 1,500 yards, not too shabby. Chris Thompson (699 yards) and Ty Jones (520) both averaged over 6 yards per carry. But South Carolina's rushing defense is one of the very best in the nation. Ninth in raw average, they're #2 when corrected for their opposition. FSU might have to settle for about 110 yards on the ground, well below their average, perhaps even less if #3 runner Jermaine Thomas can't play or Jones is still hobbled by a hurt ankle.

FSU passing offense: #60	South Carolina passing defense: #74   per att: #41
FSU interceptions thrown ranking: #13	South Carolina interceptions picked ranking: #87
FSU quarterback protection rank: #52	South Carolina pass rush rank: #15

Christian Ponder's senior year wasn't the Heisman candidacy many thought it could be. Instead of racking up gaudy stats, injuries forced him to share time with E.J. Manuel (777 yards, 3 TDs) and he finished with just over 2,000 passing yards and 20 TDs. He needed elbow surgery recently and is questionable for the bowl game. Manuel has shown the ability to pass well, and FSU has a stable of reliable receivers.

The yardage projection calls for around 235 yards. Perhaps with both healthy, it might be 250, and with only Manuel, closer to 200? But those figures might be too optimistic. South Carolina's pass defense ranks lower than it should because of the fact that teams don't try to run on them as much. On a per-attempt basis they're #41, not #74, so it's going to take more attempts to get over 200 yards.

Neither quarterback has much to worry about in terms of interceptions. Ponder has only 8 for the year. Manuel has 4 in 1/4 as many attempts, so if Ponder can't play then South Carolina has a decent chance to intercept Manuel; otherwise they probably won't have any. Sacks are another matter, and the Gamecoacks should get 2 or 3 during the game. Manuel is more elusive than Ponder, so if he starts call it 2, and 3 if Ponder plays.

 

South Carolina's season

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (7)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (4); to losing teams (0)  

1. Southern Miss 41-13
2. Georgia 17-6 
3. Furman 38-19 
4. @ #1 Auburn 27-35 
5. #15 Alabama 35-21 
6. @ Kentucky 28-31 
7. @ Vanderbilt 21-7 
8. Tennessee 38-24 
9. #8 Arkansas 20-41 
10. @ Florida 36-14 
11. Troy 69-24 
12. @ Clemson 29-7 
13. #1 Auburn 17-56

South Carolina has defeated a remarkable seven bowl teams, including their big upset of Alabama. Following that win they lost to Kentucky, and when they fell to Arkansas they appeared to be headed for another typical 5-loss season. But they won three straight and found themselves in the SEC title game against Auburn. They lost to the Tigers for the second time, and it wasn't close like the first one.

The Gamecocks have been up and down this year, on both offense and defense, but their most consistent play was before the SEC title game. They beat Florida handily, then scored 69 on the Sun Belt's Troy, and won at rival Clemson 29-7. They just didn't have it against Auburn, however, playing their worst game of the year. It's best that they just pretend that one didn't happen.

FSU's season

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (6)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (4); to losing teams (0)

1. Samford 59-6
2. @ #13 Oklahoma 17-47 
3. Brigham Young 34-10 
4. Wake Forest 31-0 
5. @ Virginia 34-14 
6. @ Miami (FL) 45-17 
7. Boston College 24-19 
8. @ North Carolina State 24-28 
9. North Carolina 35-37 
10. Clemson 16-13 
11. @ Maryland 30-16 
12. Florida 31-7 
13. @ #18 Virginia Tech 33-44

Like South Carolina, Florida State had high hopes at certain points during the season. They, too, lost an early game (crushed by Oklahoma) but found renewed hope after a big win (in their case, destroying Miami on the road 45-17).

Like the Gamecocks, two more losses left them 6-3. But they came back big and won three straight. They even beat two of the same three teams South Carolina beat on that stretch, Clemson and Florida. FSU came closer than SC did to winning their last game, but an Orange Bowl trip was not to be.

Key Injuries

For FSU quarterback Christian Ponder is the obvious question mark. With a hurt elbow, even if he's back for the bowl his effectiveness might be reduced. But there are issues at running back. #2 rusher Ty Jones has been slowed by an ankle injury, and #3 Jermaine Thomas has been out with a knee. Jones is expected to play and be healthy, while Thomas should be back but not at 100%.

South Carolina doesn't have any major players out.

Psychology: South Carolina +2    FSU +1

• South Carolina's season: +2 wins;  FSU's season: +3 wins
• South Carolina's momentum: +0; FSU's momentum: -2
• South Carolina glad to be there? +1; FSU glad to be there: +1
• South Carolina lost final game: -1; FSU lost final game: -1
• South Carolina coaching situation: +0; FSU coaching situation: +0

Both teams' situations are so close (see the season breakdowns) that I don't think either has the advantage in psychology. Both teams improved over last season's result, had great hopes at mid-season, lost a few key games, came back to win their division, and lost in the conference championship game.

Final analysis

A lot of South Carolina's offensive success is going to depend on Marcus Lattimore, and if he can tip the scales in the running game to the Gamecocks. He's going to have to make up for the Garcia's potential problems handling Florida State's pass rush. If he runs well, the passing game can open up and receiver Jeffery can take over.

Florida State has problems on offense, too. Ponder might not play, and might not be 100% if he does. A few of their running backs may be out or hobbled. And even at 100% strength they'll have their hands full with South Carolina's defense, particularly when trying to run the ball.

I think South Carolina is a definite favorite in the game, and the game should be fairly close, three or four points. In order to make a definite pick against the spread I'll go with four. And with FSU's pass rush giving Garcia trouble, and Florida State having real difficulty running the ball, the game should be a bit lower scoring than most people expect.

Prediction:  South Carolina 24, Florida State 20

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2010-2011 bowl game schedule.

2010 Liberty Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Central Florida vs. Georgia

Friday December 31: Liberty Bowl in Memphis, TN at 3:30 pm eastern

#25 Central Florida Knights (10-3) vs. Georgia Bulldogs (6-6)

UCF wins their conference and plays a 6-6 SEC team, which is a fairly typical occurrence.

Vegas line/spread: Georgia by 6 1/2 (over/under 53.5).

The 6-6 Bulldogs are nearly a touchdown favorite over the 10-win Knights. Interestingly while the spread has remained constant the over/under is down by two points—probably due to Georgia's running back problems.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. spread
UCF	31.8%	47%
Georgia	68.2%	53%

Records aside, Georgia ranks much higher in the Strength Power Rating; they're #28 to UCF's #43. The vast majority of game comparisons fell the Bulldogs' way, even after the spread is taken into account.

Strength Power Rating:      Georgia 29, Central Florida 22

Georgia's big advantage is on offense, where they rank 22nd to UCF's #64. The Knights actually have the better scoring defense (28th to 38th) but it's not enough to make up the difference in offenses. The Strength Power Rating favors to Bulldogs by an amount roughly similar to the spread.

Yardage analysis:   Georgia 24, UCF 14     per attempt:   Georgia 36, UCF 30

Georgia ranks #26 by yardage to #56 for Central Florida. The Bulldogs defense rates particularly well at #18, while UCF is just behind at #26. Again Georgia has a big advantage in adjusted total offense, 38th to just 81st for the Knights. Georgia should have around 350 total yards, with UCF just under 300, and a ten point spread when converted to a points estimate.

The per-attempt yardage score estimate is a bit closer but much higher-scoring. The teams have nearly equal per-attempt passing yardages, but Georgia averages a full yard per carry extra (about 4 ypc to 3 ypc for UCF) when their offenses and defenses are pitted against each other.

Yardage + turnovers + kick returns projection:  Georgia 28, UCF 13

Georgia gets a projected big bonus from turnovers, more than five points total. This comes from ranking 15th in turnover margin, usually netting an extra turnover per game against the average foe. And Central Florida is below average (#77) when it comes to turnovers. In an average game the Bulldogs should force nearly two turnovers, and UCF just 0.5 turnovers, giving Georgia 5 1/2 points or so.

A bit of this advantage goes away when kick returns are considered. There's no different in the punting game: UCF has a better fielding unit but Georgia has better coverage, and they cancel out. The Knights are a better on kickoffs, however. Both teams have great coverage, but UCF is the top-rated team in kickoff return average; Quincy McDuffie is #2 in the nation with 32.7 yards per return and two touchdowns. It only means about 1/2 point in the projection, since big plays on kick returns are highly variable, but it's something to consider as a possible momentum-changer.

Overall, Georgia gains 5 points from projected big play opportunities.

When UCF has the ball

UCF rushing offense: #38

Georgia rushing defense: #33

It's a good matchup in the running game between these teams. Central Florida has three players with over 500 yards: Ronnie Weaver (890), QB Jeff Godfrey (546), and Latavius Murray (533), and each of them has 10 or more rushing TDs. The Bulldog rush defense should be up to the task and hold them below 150 yards, but it will be a challenge.

UCF passing offense: #95	Georgia passing defense: #17   per att: #71
UCF interceptions thrown ranking: #56	Georgia interceptions picked ranking: #35
UCF quarterback protection rank: #56	Georgia pass rush rank: #56

Freshman Jeff Godfrey has been an efficient passer, completing 68% for the Knights for just over 2,000 yards and 13 touchdowns. Georgia's pass defense has an unusual disconnect between the per-game and per-attempt ranking, but expect Godfrey to throw for about 150 yards.

Huge production isn't expected from the UCF passing game, as it's meant to be conservative and support the running game. Godfrey has just 6 interceptions but UCF's ranking is just average because A) two other passers have added three interceptions, and B) the teams UCF plays aren't particularly good at making picks. Georgia is pretty good, and should get a pick during the game. In terms of sacks, UCF's O-line has given up 20 (18 on Godfrey), so Georgia should have a couple in the bowl game.

When Georgia has the ball

Georgia rushing offense: #51

UCF rushing defense: #36

Washaun Ealey is the team's #1 back with 751 yards and 11 TDs, and with Caleb King combined for nearly 1,200 yards. Both average over 5 yards per carry. UCF appears to have a great rushing defense at first blush—they're #10 in the nation in raw average—but when corrected for their opponents it's only #36. Apparently they face many poor rushing teams. But they're good enough to hold Georgia to about the same 140 yards that their own offense might generate on the ground, and probably less if King is ineligible (see Injuries).

Georgia passing offense: #41	UCF passing defense: #23   per att: #42
Georgia interceptions thrown ranking: #12	UCF interceptions picked ranking: #71
Georgia quarterback protection rank: #59	UCF pass rush rank: #45

Georgia starts a freshman QB too, but they've made passing as big as the run in their offense. Aaron Murray has 2,851 passing yards and 24 TDs on the season. Of course, he's got A.J. Green (771 yards, 9 TDs) and Kris Durham (612 yards) to throw to, which helps. Four others have over 100 receiving yards. Central Florida has a good pass defense and though Murray should go over 200 yards, it probably won't be that much more.

Like his UCF counterpart, Murray has thrown only 6 interceptions. But the Knights aren't very effective in taking the ball away, so it's doubtful that they'll get a pick on Murray this game. Sacks are another matter; they should have decent pressure and get to Murray a couple of times during the game. Pressuring the quarterback rather than going for interceptions should be their strategy if they want to slow down the Bulldog passing game with big plays.

 

UCF's season

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (3); to losing teams (0)     

1. South Dakota 38-7
2. North Carolina State 21-28
3. @ Buffalo 24-10
4. @ Kansas State 13-17
5. UAB 42-7
6. @ Marshall 35-14
7. Rice 41-14
8. East Carolina 49-35
9. @ Houston 40-33
10. Southern Miss 21-31
11. @ Tulane 61-14
12. @ Memphis 37-17
13. Southern Methodist 17-7

Central Florida had a great year and won their conference title, but they were lucky to face SMU instead of Tulsa. The 7-6 Mustangs were only the 2nd bowl-bound team they beat all year; the other was 6-6 East Carolina.

Aside from those teams they beat eight teams with losing records, not exactly a killer résumé. On the plus side they didn't lose to any losing teams, falling to BCS conference foes NC State and Kansas State in close contests as well as Southern Miss. Their offense was fairly inconsistent, looking average most of the time with a few terrible games (Buffalo and Southern Miss).

Georgia's season

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (6); to losing teams (1)

1. Louisiana-Lafayette 55-7
2. @ #20 South Carolina 6-17 
3. #8 Arkansas 24-31 
4. @ #21 Mississippi State 12-24 
5. @ Colorado 27-29 
6. Tennessee 41-14 
7. Vanderbilt 43-0 
8. @ Kentucky 44-31 
9. @ Florida 31-34 OT
10. Idaho State 55-7 
11. @ #1 Auburn 31-49 
12. Georgia Tech 42-34

Georgia started 1-4, which wasn't totally unexpected. Looking at the teams they faced 1-3 should have been foreseen, and in the pre-season Colorado looked better than they turned out. Still, 1-4 didn't please the fans by a long shot.

When they started winning an offensive explosion led the way: 41 against Tennessee, 43 on Vanderbilt, 44 at Kentucky. This started on A.J. Green's 2nd game back and carried through to the end of the season, so there might be some correlation there. Meanwhile, though, the defense started to falter with the Kentucky game and seemed to continue the decline all the way through the Georgia Tech win.

Key Injuries

For Georgia, Caleb King is questionable and probably out for the game due to academic issues (UPDATE: King is confirmed out). This obviously hurts Georgia's running game as King has been just as effective as Waushan Ealey and it places more burden on Ealey. Further, fullback Shaun Chapas is out, so run blocking will suffer too. UCF doesn't have any major losses.

Psychology: UCF -1    Georgia +5

• UCF's season: +2 wins;  Georgia's season: -1 wins
• UCF's momentum: +1; Georgia's momentum: +2
• UCF glad to be there? -4; Georgia glad to be there: +4
• UCF lost final game: -0; Georgia lost final game: -0
• UCF coaching situation: +0; Georgia coaching situation: +0

I'm not sure if the numbers above accurately reflect much about the emotion of the game. Central Florida is penalized for having to play a 6-6 teams when they've got 10 wins, but since it's Georgia from the SEC, I doubt they feel all too short-changed. And while Georgia must feel good about reaching a bowl game after starting 1-4, they normally expect to be playing on New Year's Day. Maybe Georgia still gets a 2 point edge, or maybe it's a wash. I'd have to know more about what the players are feeling in this case.

Final analysis

If King doesn't play, the Bulldogs' balance will probably shift even more to the pass. Most people—even coaches I'm sure—tend to look at raw yardage rankings and if you saw that UCF was #10 against the run and #46 against the pass, what would you do? Especially if your team is #72 in rushing? My guess is the Bulldogs are thinking pass even if King is available, and will be moreso if he isn't.

Georgia will have a tougher time passing than they think, especially if they don't establish the run. That would allow Central Florida to apply pressure on the quarterback, their best shot of disrupting Murphy.

However, Georgia's offense has been on a roll for more than half the season, and the receivers are the key. If Georgia does things right they can have a good game through the air. And UCF's offense doesn't appear to be a huge threat. Georgia's defense has been sluggish lately but they can compete on running plays and should do well against the pass, too.

The great intangible is attitude and emotion. It's hard to tell who is going to be "up" for the game but that team will have a good-sized advantage. But I have to ignore emotion since I can't tell which way it's going to go. If emotion is fickle, changing a lot during the game, things could turn on big plays such as interceptions or kick returns.

What I do think will happen is extra scoring. Georgia's offense has been rolling and their defense hasn't, so both teams will see a few additional points.

Prediction:  Georgia 32, Central Florida 24

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2010-2011 bowl game schedule.

Results of 2010 Hawaii Bowl: Tulsa Rocks the Warriors, Final Score 62-35

Two costly interceptions sank Hawaii in the first half, then Tulsa's offense did the trick in the 2nd half, spoiling Hawaii's home-field bowl game as the #24 Golden Hurricane pulled away from the #22 Warriors, 62-35.

The game ended up the high-scoring battle it was touted to be but it took a while, mainly because Hawaii was unable to hold onto the football. They had six first-half turnovers including four interceptions thrown by quarterback Brian Moniz. One of those by Moniz, as well as another by Shane Austin, were returned for touchdowns by Tulsa.

The Golden Hurricane were able to take a 10-0 first quarter lead even with their own offense sputtering, as both teams had turnovers in the red zone.

Hawaii started to get on track in the 2nd quarter with a one-yard Shane Austin run and a pass from Moniz to Greg Salas. But between those scores the Tulsa defense kept pace with Hawaii's offense via the two interception TD returns, the first by John Flanders, then one by Curnelius Arnick less than two minutes later. The Tulsa offense contributed a field goal made it 27-14 Tulsa at the half.

The teams traded scores wildly in the middle of the 3rd quarter. Moniz connected with Salas again, and Alex Green took it in from the one for Hawaii, but G.J. Kinne got the Tulsa passing game going and had TD passes of 15 and 47 yards to Jameel Owens and Thomas Roberson, the former set up by a 57-yard Damarius Johnson reception. Johnson, who finished with 98 yards rushing and 102 receiving, also scored on a 67 yard run for the Golden Hurricane, who led 48-28 at the end of three.

Hawaii drew to within 13 again on a 33-yard Moniz pass to Royce Pollard, but that was the closest they'd get. Tulsa's Alex Singleton got his second rushing touchdown of the night, then Kinne hit Johnson for a touchdown, Kinne's 3rd and Johnson's 2nd score.

Moniz finished with 403 passing yards but he was sacked 6 times in addition to the 4 interceptions and briefly knocked out of the game. Salas had 206 receiving yards. Hawaii ended the year 10-4; they lost big to Boise State but were the only team to beat Nevada.

Kinne had 343 passing yards for the Golden Hurricane, who finished 10-3 and appear likely to make the final AP top 25.

More College Football Bowls: Go here for the full 2010-2011 schedule with previews and results.

2010 Sun Bowl Preview, Odds, and Predictions: Miami vs. Notre Dame

Friday December 31: Sun Bowl in El Paso, TX at 2:00 pm eastern

Miami Hurricanes (7-5) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-5)

Notre Dame and Miami play for the first time in two decades.

Vegas line/spread: Miami by 3 (over/under 47).

The Hurricanes are favored by a field goal.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. spread
Miami	51.2%	45%
Notre Dame	48.8%	55%

These teams are very well matched by quality; Miami is #32 and Notre Dame #34 in the Strength Power Rating. Comparing just game performances—Miami's 12 games vs. Notre Dame's 12—each team wins 72 of 144 for exactly 50%. Extending the comparison to offensive and defensive performances and cross-combining them yields 144x144 performances, and Miami wins 51.2%. Add the spread and Notre Dame covers 55% of the time.

Strength Power Rating:      Miami 21, Notre Dame 20

Not only are the teams of similar overall quality, but they have roughly equivalent offenses and defenses. Miami ranks #46 to Notre Dame's #52 in adjusted scoring offense, while Notre Dame is #20 to Miami's #23 scoring defense. Miami ends up about a 1/2 point favorite in the Strength Power Rating; the scores round to a 21-20 Miami win.

Yardage analysis:   Miami 31, Notre Dame 21    per attempt:   Miami 28, Notre Dame 18

Though the teams are very close when their score results are compared, when adjusted yardages are compared Miami is clearly the better team, ranking #14 in yardage gained minus yardage yielded to Notre Dame's #46. The main difference is on offense, where Miami is #16 and Notre Dame is #61. Their defenses are comparable, Miami ranking #27 and Notre Dame #33. The predicted total yardages are 419 for Miami and 333 for Notre Dame; converted to a score projection Miami is favored by 10 points.

The same 10 point spread exists when per-attempt rather than per-game yardages are used, but with less scoring involved.

Yardage + turnovers + kick returns projection:  Miami 30, Notre Dame 20

After modifying the yardage analysis for the potential effects of turnovers and kick returns, the margin remains at 10 points.

The teams are both about average in turnover margin, but for different reasons. Notre Dame is average because they commit an average amount of turnovers and recover an average amount. Miami on the other hand is #4 in turnovers gained, and #116 in turnovers lost (that is, they lose a lot, too). Both teams will probably commit around three turnovers, but Notre Dame comes out slightly ahead, giving them about 3/4 of a point in an average game.

Miami makes that up on kick returns, however, having a slightly better chance of big play returns; it's not much of an advantage as Notre Dame has a better overall average.

When Miami has the ball

Miami rushing offense: #17

Notre Dame rushing defense: #15

Miami's running game vs. Notre Dame's rush defense is a great matchup, as both teams rank in the top 20. Miami's extremely deep running back corps consists of Damien Berry (865 yards), Lamar Miller (633), Mike James (384) and Graig Cooper (165, and last season's top rusher). The 'Canes can usually find someone who is having a decent game, and even against Notre Dame's defense they should total around 175 yards. Looking at the adjusted per-attempt stats, Miami ranks #7 while Notre Dame's defense ranks #24, so Miami might be able to move the ball better than expected—as long as the offensive line isn't too weakened by the flu.

Miami passing offense: #44	Notre Dame passing defense: #64   per att: #35
Miami interceptions thrown ranking: #118	Notre Dame interceptions picked ranking: #27
Miami quarterback protection rank: #21	Notre Dame pass rush rank: #16

Miami's passing game is fairly prolific but problematic. Jacory Harris (1,756 yards, 14 TDs) was the #1 quarterback all year until he suffered a concussion on a slam to the turf against Virginia. Since then the quarterback situation has been unstable. Eventually Stephen Morris was found to be reliable, and he's thrown for 958 yards in backup and replacement roles. Harris should be fully recovered—he played in the final game and threw a costly interception—but whether he or Morris plays more, expect about 240 yards of passing from the Canes, as star receiver Leonard Hankerson (1,085 yards, 12 TDs) can make plays whoever is throwing the ball.

Even before his injury, though, Harris was interception-prone, and he has 12 for the year. But Morris has 8 in half as many attempts. In fact, every quarterback Miami has used this year is interception-prone, leading to their #118 ranking, while Notre Dame is pretty good at pick-offs. I'd expected two and possibly more during the bowl game. The Canes offensive line is good at protection overall, but Notre Dame's pass rush is tough (considering the teams they've played), and the Irish should get good pressure and a couple of sacks, particularly if the Miami O-line is missing anyone because of the flu.

Update: Harris was announced as the starter, with Morris slighty injured in practice but available if needed.

When Notre Dame has the ball

Notre Dame rushing offense: #77

Miami rushing defense: #77

Just like on the other side of the field, this is an even match, with both teams being fairly poor at the task at hand. Armando Allen was lost due to hip problems in November and Cierre Wood took over; combined, the two had just over 1,000 yards and only 4 touchdowns. Miami's rushing defense is shaky enough that the Irish should have 150 ground yards, and more if the Canes give up big running plays as they tend to.

Notre Dame passing offense: #40	Miami passing defense: #7   per att: #9
Notre Dame interceptions thrown ranking: #86	Miami interceptions picked ranking: #11
Notre Dame quarterback protection rank: #36	Miami pass rush rank: #17

Just before they lost their top running back, Notre Dame lost their quarterback, Dayne Crist to a season-ending injury. Crist had over 2,000 passing yards and 15 touchdowns when Tommy Rees had to step in. Rees did well, passing for over 900 yards and 10 touchdowns total. Michael Floyd has been the go-to receiver with 10 touchdown receptions for the Irish and nearly 1,000 yards. The projection calls for 185 yards, but Rees hasn't been as productive as Crist was, so against Miami's defense he'll probably fall a bit short of that.

He also gets intercepted at about twice the rate of Crist, and already has one more (8) than Crist did. Miami could have two or even three interceptions in an average game against the Irish with Rees at QB. But to Rees' credit he doesn't get sacked nearly as often as Crist did, and though Miami has a solid pass rush they might not get the expected two sacks.

 

Miami's season

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (5)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5); to losing teams (1)  

1.  Florida A&M 45-0
2. @ #7 Ohio State 24-36
3. @ Pittsburgh 31-3
4. @ Clemson 30-21
5. Florida State 17-45
6. @ Duke 28-13
7. North Carolina 33-10
8. @ Virginia 19-24
9. Maryland 26-20
10. @ Georgia Tech 35-10
11. #18 Virginia Tech 17-31
12. South Florida 20-23 OT

Miami's season looked very bright at a couple of spots. One spot was pre-season, or perhaps before the Ohio State game, when the Canes thought they might be among the nation's elite. The Buckeyes put an end to that notion.

But still, they had high hopes for an ACC title and after crushing Pitt and beating Clemson many thought they'd do it. Then came the FSU debacle and that seemed premature, too. After beating North Carolina it looked like they'd have a very good season, but the loss to Virginia put that in doubt. The wins over Maryland and Georgia Tech were pretty good considering the circumstances, but when they fell to Virginia Tech they lost their fire and sleepwalked through the overtime loss to USF.

Notre Dame's season

Wins vs. bowl/winning teams (6)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (5); to losing teams (0)

1. Purdue 23-12
2. Michigan 24-28
3. @ #5 Michigan State 31-34
4. #4 Stanford 14-37
5. @ Boston College 31-13
6. Pittsburgh 23-17
7. Western Michigan 44-20
8. @ Navy 17-35
9. #24 Tulsa 27-28
10. #19 Utah 28-3
11. Army 27-3
12. @ USC 20-16

Twice Notre Dame's season was declared a failure, but in the end the Irish showed they weren't all that bad. The Irish beat Purdue but lost three straight to start 1-3. That sounds awful, but considering it was a 4-point loss to Michigan, a near-win against 11-1 Michigan State, and a loss to 11-1 Stanford, and in retrospect it's perfectly understandable. Three straight wins, all over bowl-eligible teams, put them back over 500.

Then they had their worst game of the year, a big loss to Navy whom they once dominated annually. The Tulsa loss—a game they should have won but blew at the end—followed the accident that killed a Notre Dame student videographer. This was the low point of the season; they were 4-5 and the Kelly era was being declared worse than a disaster.

A week off helped, as did catching Utah after they were ruined by TCU. Notre Dame played their best game of the year and Utah their worst, and it was the win the Irish needed to jump-start the season. Continuing their top-notch play they swamped Army and beat USC at USC—their first win over the Trojans since 2001. And looking back on their season, it could have pretty easily been 10-2.

Key Injuries

Miami will probably have Jacory Harris pretty close to 100% after the time off, but his offensive line could be slowed by the cases of flu that is going around the team. Seantrell Henderson and Orlando Franklin will likely play but could be slowed by lingering effects of the stomach flu. Receiver Leonard Hankerson and running back Mike James are two others who have been ill and might not be 100%. The cumulative effect of four key players being slowed isn't good, as Miami is counting on the offensive line to power the running game and protect the quarterback, while Hankerson is the passing offense's lynchpin.

Notre Dame is looking much better after suffering key injuries all season. They won't have Crist or Allen back but their offensive line, unlike Miami's, will be stronger with Ian Williams back.

Psychology: Miami -11    Notre Dame +3

• Miami's season: -2 wins;  Notre Dame's season: +1 wins
• Miami's momentum: -1; Notre Dame's momentum: +1
• Miami glad to be there? +1; Notre Dame glad to be there: +1
• Miami lost final game: -2; Notre Dame lost final game: -0
• Miami coaching situation: coach fired -7; Notre Dame coaching situation: +0

I don't think Miami's in great shape emotionally for this game. Their season fell apart, they lost their final two games, and head coach Randy Shannon was fired. That's a lot to overcome.

Notre Dame is on a roll heading into the bowl game. They hit bottom a month ago; Miami's still bottoming out right now, and will have to recover quickly if they want to stay in this game.

Final analysis

This is a pretty even matchup on paper. By score margins it's nearly a draw. By yardage Miami has a sizeable advantage. But look at how their seasons ended and any advantage Miami has disappears.

From there, consider the effects of the coaching change on Miami. Many of the players there came to Miami specifically to play for Randy Shannon, and he won't be there to coach the bowl game. Most of the players will get on with business, but some will find it hard to be motivated. The combination of the season's end and coaching change is a big net negative for the Hurricanes.

And whether it really has much effect, add the flu bug that's going around Miami players to the fact that Notre Dame's defense is playing incredible football lately, and the Miami offense will have that much more difficulty moving the ball.

Notre Dame's had their own problems on offense, so I don't expect any outbursts from them either. But the Irish are peaking right now, while Miami is barely coming off its low point. The game should still be close and might come down to turnovers, particularly interceptions, and lately Notre Dame's been lucky and the Hurricanes haven't.

Prediction:  Notre Dame 20, Miami 16

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2010-2011 bowl game schedule.

2010 Meineke Car Care Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: South Florida vs. Clemson

Friday December 31: Car Care Bowl in Charlotte, NC at Noon eastern

South Florida Bulls (7-5) vs. Clemson Tigers (6-6)

Two middling teams with mediocre offenses face off on the last day of 2010. The question for both is: who will start at quarterback?

Vegas line/spread: Clemson by 6 (over/under 40).

Clemson is a moderate favorite to win a low-scoring game. The line has grown from 4 1/2 to 5 1/2 to 6 points before game time.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. spread
USF	35.5%	48%
Clemson	64.5%	52%

Despite being just 6-6, Clemson easily outranks South Florida in the Strength Power Rating, 37th to 65th, and wins nearly 2/3 of the game comparisons. Even as the spread has grown to 6 points, Clemson wins the majority.

Strength Power Rating:      Clemson 20, South Florida 14

Clemson's advantage in our power rating shows up in the projected score; Clemson emerges about a 5 1/2 point favorite which rounds to 6. The low scoring projection is mainly a product of poor offenses: Clemson ranks 77th in adjusted scoring and USF is 87th. Clemson's defense ranks 11th and USF's is 45th. When each defense is far better than the opponent's offense, a low-scoring game is the logical conclusion.

Yardage analysis:   Clemson 17, USF 10     per attempt:   Clemson 20, USF 14

The conclusion when comparing yardage numbers is even a bit lower-scoring, but the margin remains about the same. The Tigers rank 50th in adjusted yardage differential to South Florida's #73 and should have about 300 total yards to roughly 250 for the Bulls. As in scoring, both teams rank low on offense, with Clemson 84th and USF 97th in total offense adjusted for their opposition. And both are considerably better on defense; Clemson is 13th, USF 35th.

The per-attempt figures don't paint a very different picture; in fact, the score projection matches the Strength Power Rating projection. The per-attempt breakdowns suggest Clemson will hold South Florida to fewer than 3 yards per carry on the ground.

Yardage + turnovers + kick returns projection:  Clemson 19, USF 9

The turnover comparison between these teams is interesting because neither is expected to recover a fumble from the other; Clemson is expected to win the turnover battle 1.7 to 0.8, all on interceptions, creating a nearly 4 point swing to the Tigers. Fumbles are not seen as a factor because Clemson ranks #118 and South Florida #120 in recovering fumbles, while in terms of holding onto the ball USF is #10 (5 fumbles lost) and Clemson #33 (9 lost). In other words, they rarely fumble and almost never recover fumbles (9 total between them), so any turnovers on the ground will be a surprise.

On kick returns Clemson and South Florida are roughly even in fielding, while the Tigers are better at coverage. But when it comes to potential for big plays, the Bulls have the edge, having taken back four kicks for touchdowns. It's roughly a wash but we'll give USF about a point.

In all, considering kick returns and turnovers increases Clemson's projected edge by a field goal.

When USF has the ball

USF rushing offense: #60

Clemson rushing defense: #9

South Florida isn't a great rushing team, in fact they're almost exactly average for the FBS. Moise Plancher leads the team; he and Demetrius Murray combined for 1,251 yards. Clemson's rushing defense is pretty lock-down, and USF might be stopped short of 100 ground yards.

USF passing offense: #100	Clemson passing defense: #43   per att: #29
USF interceptions thrown ranking: #102	Clemson interceptions picked ranking: #20
USF quarterback protection rank: #85	Clemson pass rush rank: #27

B.J. Daniels led the team most of the year and passed for just shy of 1,500 yards; Bobby Eveld took over for a few games when Daniels was injured and has 454 yards. Neither has been spectacular; both had more interceptions than touchdowns and completed about 56% of their passes—but Daniels adds a running threat that Eveld doesn't. Daniels should be fully recovered for the bowl game and get most of the reps, but Eveld is an option if things don't go well. Expect around 150 yards from the two combined. 

The two quarterbacks have been intercepted 15 times, which is pretty bad. Clemson's secondary is very adept at taking the ball away, too, and may get 2 picks during the contest. Not only that, but USF is vulnerably to Clemson's pass rush. Daniels gets sacked more often then Eveld, so let's call it 3 sacks if Daniels starts, and just 2 if they go with Eveld. All in all it looks like a tough time for USF's passing game.

When Clemson has the ball

Clemson rushing offense: #56

USF rushing defense: #28

Clemson is about as good as USF on the ground. Like the Bulls they have two solid but unspectacular backs, with Jamie Harper and Andre Ellington combining for 1,400 yards and 16 TDs. Of the two Ellington has the better average, but he was injured late in the season and needed surgery in December, so it will be up to Harper to carry most of the load. South Florida's rushing defense is strong but not nearly as good as Clemson's; normally the Tiger duo would have around 130 yards, but without Ellington that might not happen.

Clemson passing offense: #84	USF passing defense: #47   per att: #32
Clemson interceptions thrown ranking: #64	USF interceptions picked ranking: #83
Clemson quarterback protection rank: #20	USF pass rush rank: #50

Kyle Parker had a sophomore slump of sorts, not that his stats completely fell apart from last season but they took a step back rather than a step forward. Parker threw for just over 2,000 yards and only 12 TDs this season. Losing his top three receivers probably had something to do with it. Parker was benched in Clemson's final game, and coach Dabo Swinney has threatened to start backup Tahj Boyd instead. Assuming Parker starts, the Tigers will probably get around 175 passing yards on USF's fair (per-game) to decent (per-play) pass defense.

Parker has thrown just 10 interceptions in 324 attempts (3%), but he was benched after an interception. The Bulls aren't great at picking off passes; they might get one during the game. Parker is much better than Boyd at avoiding sacks, suffering just 12 to Boyd's 4 (10%). Overall Clemson's line does a good job at protection and USF will probably only get one sack assuming Parker is the QB.

 

USF's season

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5); to losing teams (0)

1. Stony Brook 59-14
2. @ Florida 14-38
3. Western Kentucky 24-12
4. Florida Atlantic 31-3 
5. Syracuse 9-13 
6. @ #23 West Virginia 6-20 
7. @ Cincinnati 38-30
8. Rutgers 28-27
9. @ Louisville 24-21 OT
10. Pittsburgh 10-17
11. @ Miami (FL) 23-20 OT
12. Connecticut 16-19

While it's true that South Florida didn't lose to any teams with a losing record, it's also true that it took them an overtime period to beat both of the bowl-bound teams they vanquished.

Had the Louisville and Miami games gone just a bit different, USF would be 5-7 and not playing in the post-season. Then again, had the Syracuse, Pitt, and UConn games turned just a bit, USF would be 10-2 and probably playing in the Orange Bowl. Just about every Big East team has a story like that.

In general the team's offense never got on track this year, while the defense played consistent football. It's what kept them close enough to get the wins at Louisville and Miami. The offense arguably won two games: Cincinnati and Rutgers, while it has to take the blame for four of the team's five losses.

Clemson's season

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (6); to losing teams (0)

1. North Texas 35-10
2. Presbyterian 58-21
3. @ #1 Auburn 24-27 OT
4. Miami (FL) 21-30
5. @ North Carolina 16-21
6. Maryland 31-7
7. Georgia Tech 27-13
8. @ Boston College 10-16
9. NC State 14-13
10. @ Florida State 13-16
11. @ Wake Forest 30-10
12. #20 South Carolina 7-29

After two cupcakes Clemson traveled to Auburn and very nearly beat the "other" Tigers, one of Auburn's many close calls. It was one of Clemson's best performances. But it kicked off a 3-game losing streak that dug the Tigers into a hole.

They dug themselves out by beating Maryland and Georgia Tech, but lost to Boston College. Their upset of North Carolina State was the last hurrah, though. They lost two out of three to finish 6-6, bowl-eligible but unsatisfied.

The offense, with baseball-bound Kyle Parker riddled by inconsistency and threatened with replacement constantly, performed worse each outing, particularly after Ellington was injured. The defense, on the other hand, can't be blamed for any of their losses apart from Miami.

Key Injuries

South Florida should be stronger on the defensive line come bowl time, as defensive ends Patrick Hampton and Craig Marshall will be back. Hampton missed the UConn game and for Marshall it was his first game in over a month.

Andre Ellington is out for the bowl game; he was 2nd in total rushing yards on the team, but he averaged 5.9 yards per carry to Jamie Harper's 4.1, so his loss is significant.

Psychology: USF -1    Clemson -2

• USF's season: +0 wins;  Clemson's season: -2 wins
• USF's momentum: +1; Clemson's momentum: +0
• USF glad to be there? -1; Clemson glad to be there: +1
• USF lost final game: -1; Clemson lost final game: -1
• USF coaching situation: +0; Clemson coaching situation: +0

Both teams are probably mildly disappointed by their seasons and situation; USF matched last year's record, beat Miami but lost their last game. Clemson fell a couple notches, didn't get to the ACC title game like last year, but at 6-6 any bowl is a good bowl and they are playing on New Year's Eve.

Clemson probably takes a bigger hit in the "intangibles" department, however. Kyle Parker has had a rough year and when he's gone he can forget all about it. Will he be psyched up for the bowl game? Since it's his last game you can expect him to want to do well, for himself if not for his coach with whom he's developed a contentious relationship.

Final analysis

The reasons to expect a low-scoring game keep mounting. From the start this matchup—between two poor offenses and good defenses—doesn't look like a barn-burner. Add in the fact that both teams have quarterback controversies and it just favors the defenses that much more.

Both team's offenses are on a downward trajectory, too; Clemson has been fading all year and USF has hit a rough patch the last four games. Meanwhile, USF's defense has been great the last month and Clemson's has been almost uniformly solid.

Clemson's defense matches up perfectly with USF's offense: they should dominate against the run, and against the pass where they are a good at interceptions and sacks as the Bulls are bad at avoiding them. South Florida's defense gets two starting defensive ends back at full strength, while Clemson's top rusher is out. The Tigers will either start an inferior quarterback, or one who might be sick of being benched and just looking forward to his baseball career. B.J. Daniels is doubtful to be at 100% for USF.

Since this is bound to be a low-scoring game, it should be close to the end. If one team can get "up" for it and generate some offense they could administer a blowout. I don't see Clemson being that team. USF has a chance to do it, but I wouldn't call it likely, as Clemson's defense hasn't rolled over all year. I'm not going to try to predict if USF can get themselves whipped up, but rather go with the most likely result: Clemson winning a game with anemic offense.

Prediction:  Clemson 13, South Florida 6

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2010-2011 bowl game schedule.

2010 Poinsettia Bowl Results - Final Score: San Diego State 35, Navy 14

San Diego State is known for the pass, but it was Ronnie Hillman's 228 yards that drove the Aztec offense in a 35-14 win over Navy in the Poinsettia Bowl.

Hillman rushed for three touchdowns and caught another to lead the Aztecs.

Playing on a soggy field in a stadium that was heavily flooded just days ago, San Diego State struck first and took a 14-0 lead in the first quarter. Hillman ran for a 22 yard touchdown, then Ryan Lindley connected with Vincent Brown on a 53-yard TD pass. Brown had 165 receiving yards, all in the first half.

Uncharacteristically, Navy's first score came through the air, with Ricky Dobbs completing a 30-yard pass to Greg Jones. But Hillman responded with his second TD run, this time for 37 yards and a 21-7 lead late in the first half. Navy continued to run the ball as the clock ran but Dobbs hooked up with Jones again, completing a 40 yard pass to the 11-yard line; a few plays later Dobbs found the end zone. Halftime score: San Diego State 21, Navy 14.

Dobbs completed another bomb to the red zone on Navy's first possession of the 2nd half, but it led to a Navy 4th and goal that they couldn't convert as Dobbs' short pass fell off the receiver's fingertips. There was no score in the 3rd quarter but San Diego State scored on the first play of the fourth; Hillman caught a 15 yard pass from Lindley to put the Aztecs up 28-14.

They extended the lead to 35-14 in the fourth behind Hillman, who ran a lot of clock out on a drive that culminated in his 1-yard sweep for yet another touchdown. An Aztec interception of Dobbs killed any hope the Midshipmen had of making the score respectable.

Ryan Lindley passed for 276 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Dobbs threw for 148 yards and rushed for 108. Navy's ground-intensive offense finished with 235 yards, just 7 more than Hillman had.

Navy and San Diego State both finish the season 9-4. But the Aztecs four losses came by a combined 15 points, and the teams that beat them were to top 25 teams Missouri, TCU, and Utah, and bowl-winner BYU. With the convincing win they look like a solid top 25 team themselves.

More College Football Bowls: Go here for the full 2010-2011 schedule with previews and results.

2010 Holiday Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Nebraska vs. Washington

Thursday December 30: Holiday Bowl in San Diego, CA at 10:00 pm eastern

#17 Nebraska Cornhuskers (10-3) vs. Washington Huskies (6-6)

They played in September in Seattle and Nebraska won, 56-21. Now they face off on a neutral field to decide who the winner really is!

Vegas line/spread: Nebraska by 13 1/2 (over/under 53)

Nebraska started a 13 point favorite; the line bumped up to 14 and settled at an average of 13 1/2. That's three touchdowns fewer than last time. Much less offense is expected from the Cornhuskers this time around.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. spread
Nebraska	71.5%	52%
Washington	28.5%	48%

With Nebraska #10 and Washington #46 in the Strength Power Rating, there's bound to be a big difference in the teams' average game rating. When all their games (and offensive and defensive sub-components) are cross-compared, Nebraska is the winner over 70% of the time. One of those games was their previous meeting; Nebraska's performance on that date was better than any Washington game performance, and Washington's effort was worse than any Nebraska performance.

Strength Power Rating:      Nebraska 32, Washington 19

The Strength Power Rating says the typical game between these two will end up 32-19, which is almost exactly what the oddsmakers are suggesting if you use the spread and the over/under. Washington's score isn't far from the 21 they got against the Cornhuskers last time out, but Nebraska's total is 24 points lower. That's because Nebraska's offense never played a better game than they did at Washington on September 18, and it's not likely to be repeated.

In the last game Nebraska played like Oregon on offense (in fact, Oregon scored only 53 on the Huskies, and that was in Eugene). Normally the Cornhuskers have the #18 offense, but as we'll see that varies significantly. They also have the #13 defense, while Washington ranks just 45th and 51st in these departments.

Yardage analysis:   Nebraska 31, Wash 20     per attempt:   Nebraska 41, Wash 26

Nebraska outranks Washington 15th to 52nd in yardage differential. There's a substantial gap in total adjusted offense (27th to 42nd) but the big difference is in total defense, where Nebraska ranks #9 while the Huskies are #52. This nets a score projection that's just a bit closer than the score-based projection, with Nebraska up by 11, outgaining the Huskies by 100 total yards.

The per-attempt projections compares a team's per-play stats; Nebraska is expected to average more per play both in rushing and passing, and a bigger score is suggested.

Yardage + turnovers + kick returns projection:  Nebraska 29, Washington 18

Washington is more likely to win the turnover battle, but neither team should be plagued by turnovers in a normal game. The Huskies might recover one or two loose balls/interceptions, while Nebraska can expect about one. This translates into about a 1 1/4 point advantage to Washington in this volatile category. Note that last game it was just the opposite: Nebraska picked off two passes while Washington recovered one Nebraska fumble.

Kick returns favor Nebraska. They rank high in kick fielding (Niles Paul has returned one kickoff and one punt for a touchdown) while Washington's coverage is poor. Nebraska's coverage is poor, too, but the Huskies' punt and kickoff fielding is so-so. Overall on the kick return game Nebraska nets about a point, as long as Paul returns from injury.

Combining the yardage projection with the turnover and kick return estimates, the estimated margin remains the same.

When Nebraska has the ball

Nebraska rushing offense: #9

Washington rushing defense: #88

Nebraska has one of the nation's top rushing attacks, and you never know from one game to the next who is going to be leading the charge. Roy Helu Jr. is #1 with 1,211 yards but he only led the team in a handful of games, including his 307 yard effort against Missouri. Much of the time it was QB Taylor Martinez (942 net yards), who racked up five 100+ yard performances in his first seven games and had 241 against Kansas State. Then there's Rex Burkhead (912 yards) who came on strong late in the season. Between these three the Cornhuskers should have around 280 rushing yards, as Washington doesn't defend the run well. This might be conservative as they had 383 the first time out, with all three of their star runners topping 100 yards.

Nebraska passing offense: #97	Washington passing defense: #22   per att: #52
Nebraska interceptions thrown ranking: #4	Washington interceptions picked ranking: #34
Nebraska quarterback protection rank: #68	Washington pass rush rank: #49

Martinez is primarily a running thread and has just over 1,500 yards passing. But he's shown he can throw the ball; against Oklahoma State he had five touchdown passes. Washington's pass defense is quite a bit better than Oklahoma State's, and should limit Martinez and crew (Cody Green and Zac Lee have played many series, and Green and wildcat Burkhead have three TD passes each) to 143 yards. This jibes with the previous game's result, when Martinez had 150 passing yards.

Since they don't throw often, Nebraska throws very few interceptions. Martinez has just 6 in 187 attempts and the others have just 1 in 72 attempts, both very good numbers. Washington is about 50/50  to pick one off according to our numbers. Martinez has been sacked quite a bit, including 7 times against Oklahoma and 3 against Washington the first time around. He was hobbled by a leg injury in the 2nd half of the season which reduced his mobility but should be a lot better with several weeks to heal. The Huskies should have 2 sacks, possibly 3 like last time.

When Washington has the ball

Washington rushing offense: #34

Nebraska rushing defense: #59

Chris Polk is Washington's go-to guy; he finished the year with 1,238 yards a and 8 touchdowns. Jesse Callier was a good backup and QB Jake Locker can run the ball, too, netting over 300 yards. Nebraska's defense is only average against the run, and the comparison numbers say Washington should end up with 174 yards. Sounds reasonable, as in September they had 175.

Washington passing offense: #58	Nebraska passing defense: #3   per att: #12
Washington interceptions thrown ranking: #15	Nebraska interceptions picked ranking: #10
Washington quarterback protection rank: #30	Nebraska pass rush rank: #26

Jake Locker is probably glad to have a do-over against Nebraska. Last time out he was a horrendous 4 of 20 (20%) for 71 yards and 1 touchdown, and he was intercepted twice. Even though Nebraska's passing defense is one of the very best in the country you can't expect him to do that poorly again. He'll probably have around 150 yards this time, well below his 200 yard average but not embarrassing.

Odds are Locker will only be intercepted once, too, which would further help keep the game from being the blowout it was last time when Nebraska team leaders Eric Hagg and Alfonzo Dennard each got a pick (with Dennard taking his back for a touchdown). Apart from the Nebraska game Locker threw just 7 picks all year. He probably got off easy in the sacks department last game as the Cornhuskers only got to him once; there will most likely be two this time around.

 

Nebraska's season

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (2)
Losses (3); to losing teams (1)  

1. Western Kentucky 49-10
2. Idaho 38-17 
3. @ Washington 56-21 
4. South Dakota State 17-3 
5. @ Kansas State 48-13 
6. Texas 13-20 
7. @ #14 Oklahoma State 51-41 
8. #12 Missouri 31-17 
9. @ Iowa State 31-30  OT
   
10. Kansas 20-3 
11. @ #16 Texas A&M 6-9 
12. Colorado 45-17 
13. @ #13 Oklahoma 20-23
    

Nebraska played some great football and some poor football this season, mostly dependent on whether the offense was up to snuff one week to the next. Their first three games were good enough, and certainly the Washington win was impressive. But they laid an egg against South Dakota State, scoring just 17 points. They made up for that next week against Kansas State, crushing the Wildcats 48-13.

But the next week was their worst game of the season; they lost at home to a Texas team that would finish 5-7 on the year. Inexplicably, they roared back for their two best wins, beating Oklahoma State and Missouri back-to-back. Martinez was injured against Missouri and the glow didn't last as they were nearly upset by Iowa State, scored just 20 against Kansas at home, and fell to Texas A&M while scoring just 2 field goals. The offense regrouped against Colorado with Martinez out, and played Oklahoma close with Martinez back but still hobbled.

The defense really only played one bad game (at Iowa State) and all three losses were more on the offense than the defense.

Washington's season

Wins vs. winning teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (6); to losing teams (0)

1. @ Brigham Young 17-23
2. Syracuse 41-20
3. #17 Nebraska 21-56
4. @ USC 32-31
5. Arizona State 14-24
6. Oregon State 35-34 2OT
7. @ Arizona 14-44
8. #4 Stanford 0-41
9. @ #2 Oregon 16-53
10. UCLA 24-7
11. @ California 16-13
12. @ Washington State 35-28

Washington's path to bowl-eligibility was a rough one. With three bowl-eligible teams in their pre-conference schedule and a tough league where some very good teams finished 5-7, it was an uphill battle most of the season. They didn't get a win at BYU but they handled Syracuse before losing big to Nebraska, meaning they needed to finish with a winning Pac 10 record.

Beating USC was a big help. They lost to ASU but edge Oregon State to start out 2-1 in conference play. But then they had to face Arizona, Stanford, and Oregon back-to-back-to-back, and lost all three; at this point the Huskies were 3-6 and Jake Locker was trying to come back from injury he suffered against Stanford. But Washington beat UCLA handily and squeaked by Cal and rival Washington State to finish 6-6, ready for their first bowl game since 2002.

Key Injuries

For Nebraska, the key is Taylor Martinez and how much the near-month off will help get him back to early-season form. At the very least he should regain much mobility, allowing him to move naturally in the pocket once again. Receiver Niles Paul missed the last few games and it isn't guaranteed that he'll play in the bowl.

For Washington, defensive tackle Semisi Tokolahi is out. He only became the starter recently, so the net impact relative to their season average isn't great. They should also get some players back on defense.

Psychology: Nebraska -5    Washington +5

• Nebraska's season: +1 win;  Washington's season: +1 win
• Nebraska's momentum: -1; Washington's momentum: +0
• Nebraska glad to be there? -4; Washington glad to be there: +4
• Nebraska lost final game: -1; Washington lost final game: -0
• Nebraska coaching situation: -0?; Washington coaching situation: +0

Rematch games are always tricky. The conventional wisdom is that rematches favor the team that lost the first time, since they can work on what they did wrong and, more importantly, the team that won has the feeling that they have nothing to gain by playing again. The latter certainly seems to be the case here. But does Washington have anything to gain by playing a team that beat them 56-21?

Washington has some momentum due to their 3 game winning streak, and apart from the "rematch" business Nebraska was three points away from a BCS bowl and is now playing a 6-6 team instead. Since Washington can't be all that excited about this game, but won't be "down" since it's their first bowl in 8 years, I'd say they're a wash (no pun intended), while Nebraska's -5 score will likely translate directly to their bottom line.

Bo Pelini has been a bit 'embattled' and had trouble due to some of his action late in the season, but it doesn't appear that anything will come of it beyond what's already been said. Rumors that he was up for the Miami job turned out to be unfounded. Still, his focus and the team's is questionable.

Final analysis

Nebraska already proved they're the better team, winning convincingly on Washington's turf. Playing again on a neutral field won't change anything, even if Washington wins a close game which is a possibility. There have been many times where Team A has beaten Team B convincingly but loses a close game upon a rematch, most notably Texas-Colorado in 2001. The Buffaloes lost 41-7 in the first game but won the 2nd 39-37, and Washington hopes to duplicate that feat.

Nebraska also has the "let-down" syndrome in play. They almost went to a BCS bowl, missing it by 3 points, and slid far down the bowl hierarchy until they were left playing a 6-6 team. Once again, there's a Texas example for this situation. In 2006 Texas lost 12-7 to Texas A&M, missing out on the Big 12 title game. They ended up in the Alamo Bowl against 6-6 Iowa and were a 17 point favorite. Iowa stunned them early and led much of the game; Texas prevailed 26-24 but it was a clear case of the Bowl Letdown Syndrome.

There are other intangibles. Jake Locker is a senior and will want to go out with a good performance, doubly so because of his poor first outing against the Cornhuskers. Meanwhile Taylor Martinez has had a difficult second half of the season and won't push the issue with his health.

All things considered, the Texas-Iowa scenario looks about right.

Prediction:   Nebraska 27, Washington 23

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2010-2011 bowl game schedule.

2010 Las Vegas Bowl Results - Final Score: Boise State 26, Utah 3

After a rough start Boise State's offense came alive for 26 unanswered points to win the Maaco Las Vegas Bowl, defeating Utah 26-3.

Both teams missed several scoring opportunities that could have put about three more touchdowns on the board apiece. Penalties, turnovers, and dropped passes plagued both teams, and Boise twice missed out on a touchdown by virtue of being out of bounds by an inch.

Utah was energetic and effective on defense as the Utes shut out the Broncos in the first quarter. They sacked Kellen Moore on the first series, stopped them on 4th down on the second one, and on the third Chaz Walker intercepted Moore setting up a field goal for a 3-0 first quarter lead.

The second quarter started out just as bad for Boise, as Kyle Efaw fumbled after a completed pass. But Utah's offense was getting less and less potent as Boise's defense tightened, and they had to punt again.

Then Boise's offense struck suddenly, scoring on the next three series. Doug Martin rambled 84 yards for a touchdown; Kyle Brotzman added a field goal next time out; and with less than a minute left, Kellen Moore completed two long passes, the second one a touchdown strike to Tyler Shoemaker. Boise tried a very unorthodox two point conversion which failed, leaving the halftime score Boise State 16, Utah 3.

Boise continued their domination in the 3rd quarter but blew some scoring opportunities. Austin Pettis fumbled a near-TD catch out the back of the end zone (the reviewed call was the 2nd near-TD that Boise missed by an inch). Pettis made up for it with an 18-yard TD catch, but the Broncos came up empty in another red zone opportunity and the 3rd quarter ended with Boise up 23-3.

Utah missed a field goal on the first play of the 4th quarter, their second missed field goal. It followed the second time a Ute touchdown pass was called back due to a penalty. Kyle Brotzman then added his second field goal, the first two he had made since the Nevada debacle.

Moore finished with 339 passing yards and 2 TD tosses, while Martin rushed for 147 yards. Pettis had an equal amound of yardage in receptions. The defense was the real star of the bowl game, as they limited Utah to just over 100 yards rushing and fewer than 100 passing.

Boise State, #10 in the SportsRatings Top 25, finished the year 12-1; #19 Utah fell to 10-3.

More College Football Bowls: Go here for the full 2010-2011 schedule with previews and results.

2010 Music City Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: North Carolina vs. Tennessee

Thursday December 30: Music City Bowl in Nashville, TN at 6:40 pm eastern

North Carolina Tar Heels (7-5) vs. Tennessee Volunteers (6-6)

Two teams with similar offenses—little running, quite a bit of passing—match up to see who can end their unusual season on a positive note.

Vegas line/spread: North Carolina by 1 (over/under 50).

The Tar Heels are a slim favorite to win a game with average scoring. The line opened at North Carolina by 2 but now it's anywhere from a pick 'em to UNC by 2, with the average being UNC by 1.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. spread
UNC	44.2%	40%
Tennessee	55.8%	60%

Despite Tennessee's woes early in the season they're not far removed from North Carolina in the Strength Power Rating's game ratings. North Carolina is #42 and Tennessee #49; if you grant Tennessee home field advantage, the Volunteers win most of the comparisons, and 3/5 against the spread.

Strength Power Rating:      Tennessee 23, North Carolina 21

The projected winner changes depending on whether home field advantage is given to Tennessee: they're a 2 point favorite with it, and a 1 point underdog without. They're playing in-state and should have most of the crowd support, but they're not playing on their home field and North Carolina comes from the same general region, so perhaps UT should get 1 1/2 or 2 points, which makes the contest even closer.

The low score is due to both teams having better defenses (UNC #29, UT #48) than offenses (#59 and #56). North Carolina's defense gives them a slight edge which is (at least somewhat) taken away by home advantage for the Volunteers.

Yardage analysis:   UNC 28, Tennessee 21     per attempt:   UNC 26, Tennessee 26

There's a wider gap between the teams in yardage numbers. North Carolina ranks 31st and Tennessee just 62nd in adjusted yardage differential. The offense/defense rankings aren't too far off from their score-based counterparts; again, both teams are better on defense (#22 and #57) than on offense (#50 and #62). But this team home field advantage doesn't make up the difference, and North Carolina is a one-touchdown favorite when yardage is converted to an estimated score.

Using per-attempt rather than per-game adjusted figures it's too close to call. Against Tennessee, North Carolina averages just 3 yards per carry and Tennessee 3.3. But the Tar Heels have a 0.3 yard-per-attempt advantage in passing, which evens everything out.

Yardage + turnovers + kick returns projection:  UNC 26,  Tennessee 21

Expanding the yardage projection to include estimated turnovers and kick returns, Tennessee pulls a bit closer, as big plays and special teams play gives them about 2 points on average.

Tennessee should narrowly win the turnover battle, but of course dealing with these small numbers nothing is certain. But in more cases the Volunteers, who rank #24 in turnover margin, will have a positive margin against the Tar Heels who rank #43. Both will probably turn the ball over twice, but Tennessee's 0.35 advantage translates into about a 1 1/2 point difference on average.

On punt returns neither team gains much; North Carolina's coverage is bad, but Tennessee's fielding is poor. In kickoff returns the teams are both poor at returns, but Tennessee has a strong coverage unit. On kick returns overall Tennessee gains about a 1/2 point.

When UNC has the ball

UNC rushing offense: #92

Tennessee rushing defense: #41

North Carolina's rushing output isn't great. Johnny White led the team with 720 yards and a 5.5 average, but he's out for the season. Backup Shaun Draughn (477 yards) hasn't been 100% lately. That leaves Anthony Elzy (296 yards) as the top back; he had over 100 against Duke. Between Elzy and a healthier Draughn the Tar Heels should be at their normal strength, which means they may or may not reach 100 yards against a decent Volunteer rushing defense. Update: Now Elzy is out, too. UNC probably won't get to triple digits unless Draughn is at full strength.

UNC passing offense: #19	Tennessee passing defense: #92   per att: #46
UNC interceptions thrown ranking: #16	Tennessee interceptions picked ranking: #8
UNC quarterback protection rank: #101	Tennessee pass rush rank: #42

T.J. Yates has over 3,000 passing yards this season and 18 touchdowns. Dwight Jones has been his top target but eight other targets have over 100 receiving yards. The Tar Heels could have nearly 300 passing yards against the Volunteers, who give up quite a few yards on average. But UT's per-attempt defensive numbers are better, and between interceptions and sacks they have a chance to slow UNC down greatly.

Yates hasn't thrown many interceptions (just 8 this year) but Tennessee is in the top ten in picks; Prentiss Waggner has 5 and Janzen Jackson 4. At least one of them should get a pick during the bowl game, and if there's more than one the tide starts to turn to Tennessee. Attempting to get pressure on Yates is worthwhile, too, as he's been sacked 34 times this season; even though Tennessee's pass rush is marginal, they should have about three sacks.

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee rushing offense: #97

UNC rushing defense: #23

Like North Carolina, Tennessee doesn't run the ball a lot or particularly well. Losing Monterio Hardesty and Bryce Brown from last season left them with Tauren Poole, who is a good runner but has had to do most of the work himself. He's just short of 1,000 yards, 6 to be exact, but as a team Tennessee probably won't get 100 since North Carolina has a good defense.

Tennessee passing offense: #27	UNC passing defense: #34   per att: #28
Tennessee interceptions thrown ranking: #55	UNC interceptions picked ranking: #18
Tennessee quarterback protection rank: #114	UNC pass rush rank: #59

Tennessee's passing game has seen a dramatic improvement since Tyler Bray took over for Matt Simms. Before the South Carolina game Tennessee's passing game was an adjusted #49; now it's #27 for the whole season, meaning it's clearly been a top 25 level attack over the last five games. Bray had 300+ in three of the four games he started, and should have at over 250 in the bowl game despite North Carolina's decent pass defense. Denarius Moore has been the team's most prolific target (912 yards, 9 TDs) while Gerald Jones has the most receptions (46).

Bray does have more of an interception problem than Simms, however, so North Carolina might get more than the expected 1 pick. But he's a lot less of a liability when it comes to sacks—he's been caught just 12 times to Simms' 25. The numbers say UNC gets 3.25 sacks, but correcting that for Bray's ratio and UNC should get just a couple. 

 

UNC's season

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5); to losing teams (0)

1. = #11 LSU 24-30
2. Georgia Tech 24-30
3. @ Rutgers 17-13
4. East Carolina 42-17
5. Clemson 21-16
6. @ Virginia 44-10
7. @ Miami (FL) 10-33
8. William & Mary 21-17
9. @ Florida State 37-35
10. #18 Virginia Tech 10-26
11. North Carolina State 25-29
12. @ Duke 24-19

North Carolina began the season without a dozen or so players, mostly on defense and including several starters. They dropped identical 30-24 games to LSU and Georgia Tech. The defense improved as they slowly got players back but it never consolidated into the dominant unit that was forecast before the season began and before the myriad of allegations took hold.

The Tar Heels won their next four games and appeared to be in good shape before the Miami loss took them back down to earth. Beating FSU on the road had them 6-3, but losses to Virginia Tech and N.C. State prevented any run at the ACC title. They closed out the season with an anemic win over Duke.

Tennessee's season

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (1)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (6); to losing teams (0)

1. Tennessee-Martin 50-0
2. #2 Oregon 13-48
3. Florida 17-31
4. UAB 32-29
5. @ #11 LSU 14-16
6. @ Georgia 14-41
7. #15 Alabama 10-41
8. @ #17 South Carolina 24-38
9. @ Memphis 50-14
10. Mississippi 52-14
11. @ Vanderbilt 24-10
12. Kentucky 24-14

We foresaw Tennessee's early woes pretty clearly, predicting that they'd start out 2-6. It wasn't that hard, really—just look at their schedule. UT-Martin and UAB are the only soft dates, with every other team in most pre-season top 25s. Since Tennessee didn't look like a top 25 team to us, it was hard to find any early wins. In their last four games we saw at least two wins, with the other games being close. But that's where the Volunteers actually exceeded expectations.

Once Tyler Bray was established at quarterback, Tennessee not only beat Memphis and Vanderbilt as they were supposed to, but they handled Mississippi (easily, 52-14) and beat Kentucky for their first defeat of a bowl-eligible team. As you can see, in their last four games the team played much better, with the defense playing especially well the last three.

Key Injuries

North Carolina has a lot of its missing players back from the early season suspensions, but others were ruled ineligible. Though they improved over the first two games they never became a dominant defense. Linebacker Bruce Carter was lost for the season before the Duke game, making matters worse.

On offense their biggest concern is at running back, where they are without their top rusher and their #2 hasn't been effective for the last month; making matters worse, word came out days before the bowl that Anthony Elzy is being held out for team rules violations. They also lost starting offensive lineman Alan Pelc.

The Volunteers might have a couple of defensive standouts—corner Art Evans and tackle Montori Hughes—back for the bowl game.

Psychology: UNC -3    Tennessee +2

• UNC's season: -1 win;  Tennessee's season: -1 wins
• UNC's momentum: -1; Tennessee's momentum: +2
• UNC glad to be there? -1; Tennessee glad to be there: +1
• UNC lost final game: -0; Tennessee lost final game: -0
• UNC coaching situation: +0; Tennessee coaching situation: +0

North Carolina's had a tough season from the start and they never really hit their stride. Tennessee hit bottom at 2-6 but they've rebounded impressively since then. Playing close to home, the Volunteers have to be happier about their situation, considering that a few months ago it was as bleak as possible.

Final analysis

At first blush, apart from any numerical analysis, a game between North Carolina and Tennessee falls firmly in the Tar Heels' favor, probably by about 6 points. But looking at the details, that lead starts to be chipped away.

First, put the game in Nashville, where Tennessee fans are sure to overwhelm Tar Heel fans. That makes the game a field goal at best.

Then consider North Carolina's offense. In the running game, they're without their season's leading rusher and the #3 rusher, who had been starting lately. When passing, they'll have to deal with Tennessee's ability to intercept the ball, as well as their own inability to protect the quarterback. If their pass game is stifled enough, and their running game unable to generate, the Tar Heels will have trouble on offense.

Tennessee's offense is much better under Tyler Bray. The Volunteers' problem with sacks diminishes significantly when it's Bray under center rather than Simms. The team has much more of a deep threat, and has significantly more passing yards than they've averaged for the year.

To top it off, North Carolina keeps losing players to injury while Tennessee could be getting some back. North Carolina finished the year with two losses followed by a poor showing against Duke, while Tennessee appears to keep getting stronger.

All of this added up makes it look like Tennessee should be the 6 point favorite, given the conditions of the game and the situation at this point in the season. And as the running back situation for UNC gets worse, I've docked them yet another point.

Prediction: Tennessee 26, North Carolina 19

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2010-2011 bowl game schedule.