Well last week's picks went pretty well: 8-2 straight up (picking the Notre Dame upsets as well as USC, missing the radical Cal pick as well as Florida-South Carolina) and going 7-3 against the spread. Not that we're advocating using these picks for anything but informational purposes and to show how computer models can aide in forecasting. This week could be awful; last week was pretty decent though.
This week we have winners such as Alabama vs. I-AA rookie Georgia State and only two intra-top 25 contests. It seems like college football takes a breather before the next two weekend's rivalry games. Still, there are some good contests for the discerning fan, with the majority of the ranked teams playing on the road leaving the door open to upsets.
Here are this week's top ten games and our picks:
Only Undefeated Team in Action: Fresno State (6-3) at #4 Boise State (9-0)
Vegas Line/Spread: Boise State by 30 1/2
Strength Power Rating Pick: Boise State 51-18 (99.89% chance of winning)
Yardage Analysis Score: Boise State 41-9
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Boise State 44-6
Comments: It's a slow Saturday for undefeated teams; Oregon, Auburn, and TCU all have the week off, and Boise State plays on Friday night. Though this would appear to be one of Boise State's tougher challenges this year, the Strength Power Rating suggests a 99.89% chance of winning by the game-comparison system. That is, out of all 6,561 comparisons of Boise's scoring offense and defense to Fresno's, the Bulldogs win just 7 times. Yikes. The stout Bronco rushing defense should hold Fresno to around 100 rushing yards. TCU got their "scare" last weekend, could it be Boise's turn Friday? They really can't afford it as the only BCS title game contender in action.
Final Prediction: Boise State 47, Fresno State 13
Time to Step It Up: #13 Arkansas (8-2) vs. #19 Mississippi State (8-2)
Vegas Line/Spread: Arkansas by 3
Strength Power Rating Pick: Arkansas 26-21 (wins 63%)
Yardage Analysis Score: Arkansas 38-20
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Arkansas 34-21
Comments: Mississippi State has gotten a pretty good rep this year as a team that doesn't lose to bad teams; they fallen only to LSU, Auburn, and Alabama, teams that have a combined 3 losses (two of which came from each other). But they haven't beaten anybody noteworthy other than Florida, who now has four losses. Now they have to step it up and get an impressive win or fall into a bowl that nobody cares about. Arkansas has a slim chance of going to a BCS bowl and they're playing really good football lately. Ryan Mallet should throw for around 350 yards and lead the Razorbacks to the win.
Final Prediction: Arkansas 30, Mississippi State 21
Remember the Big 12? #7 Nebraska (9-1) at #16 Texas A&M (7-3)
Vegas Line/Spread: Nebraska by 2 1/2
Strength Power Rating Pick: Texas A&M 27-24 (55%)
Yardage Analysis Score: Texas A&M 27-24
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Nebraska 26-24
Comments: Texas A&M is a team that hits a "sweet spot" in our subjective rankings, losing only to teams above them and beating those below. A win over Nebraska would upset this equation, as the Cornhuskers beat Oklahoma State who beat the Aggies. So I was a little surprised to find that both the Strength Power Rating and the Yardage Analyzer picked them to win, 27-24 in both cases. Adding in turnovers—a Nebraska strength—tilts the 2nd projection to the Corhuskers by a point or two, but those stats include a 2-interception tally for Nebraska which will be harder to come by with Ryan Tannehill playing quarterback. Going into this analysis I expected to pick Nebraska but I'm going with the Aggies; it will mess up the top 25's logic but then again, that always happens.
Final Prediction: Texas A&M 27, Nebraska 24
How Good is Cal at Home? Part II: #6 Stanford (9-1) at California (5-5)
Vegas Line/Spread: Stanford by 6 1/2
Strength Power Rating Pick: Stanford 30-22 (64%)
Yardage Analysis Score: Stanford 24-14
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Stanford 24-13
Comments: Cal proved last week that they are indeed one of the best teams in the country when they play at home—2nd perhaps only to Oregon. But Stanford is one of the best teams in the country, home or road. Are they at risk playing in Berkeley? Cal's "over-and-above" home field advantage is nearly 18 points (they are about 21 points better at home than on a neutral field). By this measure they should defeat the Cardinal with ease. But last week's Oregon game showed the deficiencies of their offense under Brock Mansion. The defense played an astounding game but the offense was clearly not up to where it was with Kevin Riley at quarterback. Do the Bears have it in them to fight it out with Stanford one week after Oregon? Like last week, where we said the realistic result is that Cal comes up just short...the realisitic result is that Cal comes up just short.
Final Prediction: Stanford 21, California 17
Rose Bowl Hunt - Will the Badgers Score 84? #9 Wisconsin (9-1) at Michigan (7-3)
Vegas Line/Spread: Wisconsin by 4
Strength Power Rating Pick: Wisconsin 45-36 (65%)
Yardage Analysis Score: Michigan 45, Wisconsin 42
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Wisconsin 45, Michigan 42
Comments: Wisconsin proved that it can score points by racking up 83 against Indiana, their second 70+ point output of the season. Michigan gives up a lot of points, too, so the Badgers could have another field day in Ann Arbor. The thing is that the Wolverines can keep up; they topped Illinois 67-65 in triple overtime and scored 65 on Bowling Green in regulation. Denard Robinson was quiet last week but if he has a big game it will be a shootout. Wisconsin will be without John Clay again but it didn't seem to hurt last week. The Wolverines are capable of pulling off the upset here and the Badgers might be ripe after last week's celebration, but Wisconsin is fighting to hold onto a Rose Bowl berth and should outlast UM despite scoring only about half of last week's output.
Final Prediction: Wisconsin 45, Michigan 40
Rose Bowl Hunt part II: #11 Ohio State (9-1) vs. Iowa (7-3)
Vegas Line/Spread: Ohio State by 3
Strength Power Rating Pick: Ohio State 27-21 (66%)
Yardage Analysis Score: Ohio State 24-14
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Ohio State 23-15
Comments: Unlike the above Big Ten game, this one should come down to defense. Iowa is as bad at beating Ohio State as they are at beating Northwestern, and the Buckeyes are a better team. The Hawkeyes' running game has been hobbled and they may struggle to get 100 yards against Ohio State, who will probably outgain them slightly in each area on their way to a win. If Iowa can intercept Terrelle Pryor multiple times and avoid turnovers themselves things might be different.
Final Prediction: Ohio State 24, Iowa 18
ACC Coastal Division Championship Game: #21 Virginia Tech (8-2) vs. Miami (7-3)
Vegas Line/Spread: Virginia Tech by 2 1/2
Strength Power Rating Pick: Miami 24-23 (53%)
Yardage Analysis Score: Miami 35-24
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Miami 31-27
Comments: This isn't really the Coastal championship game, unless Virginia Tech wins in which case they are the Coastal champs. Miami would have to depend on Virginia upsetting Virginia Tech in order to make the ACC title game. That said, this is the key game remaining. Somewhat surprisingly, with home field advantage the Canes are favored by both projections, though expected turnovers greatly narrow Miami's margin in the yardage comparison. Miami's been doing pretty well with quarterback Stephen Morris and he'll be the starter again. I don't think it will make any difference whether Miami wins this game or not in terms of the ACC race, but Virginia Tech might be thinking the same thing, that they need to win one of the next two. That attitude could make a difference.
Final Prediction: Miami 27, Virginia Tech 24
ACC Atlantic Division Championship Game: Florida State (7-3) at Maryland (7-3)
Vegas Line/Spread: FSU by 4
Strength Power Rating Pick: FSU 30-25 (58%)
Yardage Analysis Score: FSU 31-17
Yardage + Turnovers Score: FSU 28-20
Comments: Like the above game, this isn't strictly the Atlantic division title game, but it's close. The winner of this game has an excellent chance of going to the ACC title game. Maryland controls their own destiny and needs to beat FSU and N.C. State, while FSU has to win this game and hope N.C. State loses to either North Carolina or Maryland, a pretty good bet. The Seminoles should outgain the Terrapins comfortably in both passing and rushing but FSU can't count on gaining turnovers while Maryland should gain about two. Still, Florida State appears to be on their way to the ACC title game.
Final Prediction: Florida State 29, Maryland 23
Mountain West Runner-up: #20 Utah (8-2) vs. San Diego State (7-3)
Vegas Line/Spread: Utah by 2 1/2
Strength Power Rating Pick: Utah 34-27 (61%)
Yardage Analysis Score: Utah 30-23
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Utah 30-24
Comments: People are going to be pretty down on Utah after two blowout losses, and figure that the Aztecs played TCU a whole lot closer, so shouldn't they beat the Utes? But that's probably wrong. Unless the Utes have been totally ruined they should win this game, and their offense is due for an explosion after scoring just 10 points in two games. This game completes the classic round robin conundrum: Team A kills Team B, who kills Team C. Then Team A plays Team C and wins by just a few points. In this case Team A is TCU, B is Utah and C is SDSU. The order of games is just shifted around a bit. That said, Utah could really use a bye weekend right now; they lost to Notre Dame a lot worse than expected and San Diego could smell blood. I just think it's rebound time, and they'll get a hard-fought win.
Final Prediction: Utah 34, San Diego State 23
Scheduling Boondoggle of the Decade: Georgia State (6-4) at #12 Alabama (8-2)
Vegas Line/Spread: No line
Strength Power Rating Pick: Alabama 53-0 (99.97%)
Yardage Analysis Score: n/a
Yardage + Turnovers Score: n/a
Comments: Given the records this doesn't look like such a bad idea. Even knowing Georgia State is an FCS (I-AA) team doesn't make this game any different from the 100 or so FBS vs. FCS games scheduled each year. What makes it so wrong is that this is Georgia State's first year ever playing football. And they are taking on the defending national champion. They have ex-Alabama coach Bill Curry and boast several I-A transfers who wanted to play a bigger role. But this is a joke. Not as big of a joke as it looked like at the beginning of the season—the Panthers padded their schedule with even lower division schools to get some wins, and played some good teams pretty close—but it's still a joke. Of all offense-defense cross-comparisons, Georgia State wins three times in 10,000.
Final Prediction: Alabama 56, Georgia State 3
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