SportsRatings: College Football

Quick, Dirty, & Tentative but Complete Bowl Projections for 2010-11

NOTE: Updated projections here

The BCS Bowl Games:

BCS Title Game      Auburn          Oregon
Rose Bowl           TCU*            Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl         Oklahoma        Stanford*
Orange Bowl         Virginia Tech   West Virginia
Sugar Bowl          Arkansas        Ohio State

* a "swap" may be arranged here as we have detailed; but saying it might happen and having it become reality are two different things.

For a complete, interactive look at all the BCS Bowl possibilities, use our BCS Projector.

The rest of the field:

Capital One Bowl    Michigan State  LSU
Gator Bowl          Florida         Penn State
Cotton Bowl         Nebraska        Alabama
Alamo Bowl          Oklahoma St     Arizona
Outback Bowl        Iowa            South Carolina
Chick-fil-A Bowl    Florida St      Miss. State
Sun Bowl            UTEP            Pittsburgh
Holiday Bowl        Texas A&M       Washington
Champs Sports Bowl  Miami           Notre Dame    
Liberty Bowl        UCF             Kentucky
Car Care Bowl       NC State        South Florida
Independence Bowl   North Carolina  Air Force
Music City Bowl     Maryland        Tennessee
Pinstripe Bowl      Syracuse        Kansas State
Kraft Bowl          Temple          Boise State
Texas Bowl          Baylor          Northwestern
Humanitarian Bowl   Miami OH        Nevada
Insight Bowl        Missouri        Michigan
TicketCity Bowl     Illinois        Texas Tech
Little Caesars Bowl Boston College  Northern Illinois
Hawaiʻi Bowl        SMU             Hawaii
Armed Forces Bowl   Georgia Tech    Army
Maaco Las Vegas     Utah            Clemson
Poinsettia Bowl     SDSU            Navy
GoDaddy.com Bowl    Troy            Toledo
New Orleans Bowl    Tulsa           Florida Intl
Compass Bowl        UConn           Georgia
New Mexico Bowl     BYU             Fresno State
Beef 'O' Brady's    Louisville      Southern Miss
Military Bowl       Ohio            East Carolina

Seriously, getting these exactly right is probably about as hard as getting the complete NCAA first-round brackets correct.

2010-2011 BCS Bowl Predictor Lets You Test All 128 Outcomes

There are seven games that could reasonably affect the BCS Bowl lineup. Rather than make 128 lists of the projected final standings, I made a simple tool to show what I think will happen under all outcomes of those seven games. I call it the "BCS Bowl Predictor." Enjoy.

 

Stanford's Path to the Rose Bowl: UConn loses, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma win

Stanford fans want their team in the Rose Bowl, but it isn't looking likely. With the Rose Bowl committed to taking an automatic qualifier from a non-AQ conference, it looks like BCS #3 TCU will play Wisconsin. Even if Stanford is #4 in the BCS and therefore an automatic qualifier for a BCS bowl, they will be chosen by either the Orange or Fiesta Bowls.

Case closed, right? Maybe not. Here is what needs to happen (and what won't help).

• Oregon losing won't help. That much is obvious; if the Ducks lose, they will go to the Rose Bowl, leaving zero chance for Stanford. Just getting this one out of the way.
• Auburn losing probably does the trick, sending TCU to the national title game and making Stanford the obvious replacement for Oregon in the Rose. We say "probably" because some have argued that another no-AQ conference team (Boise State if in the top 12) could still be considered an automatic qualifier, and the Rose would take them. I think this has been proven false, but you never know.

Now, let's assume that Stanford finishes #4 in the BCS, Auburn and Oregon are in the title game, and go from there. The Sugar Bowl will have Arkansas and almost certainly choose Ohio State as the opponent. Two teams are left as replacements: Stanford, and either Connecticut or West Virginia. The Orange Bowl picks next. Note: speculation follows.

1. If Florida State wins the ACC then Stanford will be in the Orange Bowl. The Orange Bowl won't want Connecticut, who doesn't travel well, to face the Seminoles; they'll opt for the higher-profile opponent and hope that this energizes FSU fans to make the (relatively) short trip from Tallahassee. If the Big East winner is West Virginia, they'll still choose Stanford. FSU-West Virginia would be a repeat of last year's Gator Bowl, which was a draw last season because of Bobby Bowden's retirement and his links to the Mountaineers. This year it would just be a repeat bowl. So to avoid getting chosen by the Orange Bowl, Stanford must hope that Virginia Tech beats Florida State.
2. If Virginia Tech wins the ACC and UConn wins the Big East then Stanford will still go to the Orange Bowl. An 11-2 Virginia Tech vs. 11-1 Stanford would be a bigger draw for national tv than having the Hokies play 8-4 UConn.
3. If UConn loses to South Florida, however, then Stanford should be in the Fiesta Bowl. In this scenario, West Virginia becomes the automatic qualifier from the Big East, and a Virginia Tech-West Virginia matchup might be a better fit for the Orange Bowl. There is more chance that Mountaineer fans would travel south than Stanford fans travel across the entire country to attend the game.
4. If Nebraska wins the Big Twelve, Stanford remains in the Fiesta Bowl. If all of the above happen (UConn loses, Virginia Tech wins) creating the Virginia Tech-West Virginia Orange Bowl and leaving Stanford to be picked by the Fiesta Bowl, then it will be Stanford vs. Nebraska, while TCU plays Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl. There will probably not be enough impetus for the Bowl commissioners to get involved, though there's a chance that what is described below could still occur.
5. If Oklahoma wins the Big Twelve, Stanford could end up in the Rose Bowl. An Oklahoma-Stanford Fiesta Bowl matchup would be a rematch of last year's Sun Bowl, something that bowl representatives claim they want to avoid. Normally they want to avoid having repeat teams in a bowl year-to-year, and avoid rematches, period, but both seem to happen will regularity. So take this with a grain of salt. But for the BCS bowls it could be taken more seriously, and there is a clause in the BCS rules that specifically allows for shuffling the teams around if it would be in the best interests of all involved. Is that the case here?
   
   Oklahoma probably wouldn't want to face Stanford again, as they won the last game and there's no "revenge" motivation—they'd rather get a chance to knock off an undefeated TCU. Wisconsin would rather face a traditional Pac 10 foe, too.
   
   Also, most agree that Stanford won't travel well. They'd travel better to Glendale than they would to Miami, I'd wager. But they'd travel even better to Pasadena. The Rose Bowl would love to have Stanford rather than TCU. And the Fiesta Bowl would be a better travel fit for TCU, too. With both bowls and all four teams potentially agreeing that it would be better to swap opponents, I could definitely see it happening.

There is it. This scenario underscores what is really wrong with the current system—the selection process that occurs even AFTER the final standings are known. And the rest of the bowls are just as bad if not worse, basing their decisions on economics rather than quality of play. Even when the final records and standings are known, little is engraved in stone. I hope they do sort things out so that Stanford plays in the Rose Bowl and TCU in the Fiesta, but the outcomes above probable have to happen to make it so.

Week 13 Preview, Odds, and Predictions, Part Two: Saturday's Games - Rose Bowl on the Line

Part Two of this weekend's preview, including the top games on Saturday. The games aren't as big as Alabama-Auburn, and only one undefeated team is in action instead of three. But there is a greater quantity of interesting games, as nearly every contest has ramifications.

In addition to huge games in the SEC and Big 12 between ranked teams, undefeated TCU is in action, and the Big Ten leaders—all 10-1—each takes on a strong 7-4 opponent with that conference's championship still up for grabs. The ACC has an important contest in determining that league's title game, and then there are two classic contests between four traditional powers. Have fun.

Here are Saturday's top games:

• Undefeated Teams in Action (1)

Getting This One Out of the Way: #4 TCU (11-0) at New Mexico (1-10)

Vegas Line/Spread: TCU by 43 1/2
Strength Power Rating Pick: TCU 54-1 (TCU wins 99.83% of game comparisons)
Yardage Analysis Score: TCU 52-0
Yardage + Turnovers Score: TCU 56-0
Comments: Like the title says, let's just get this one out of the way. TCU is one of the country's elite teams and New Mexico is one of the nation's worst. The Lobos lost to Oregon 72-0 in week one and things haven't gotten much better since. They've given up 40 or more points 6 times and scored more than 20 only twice. According to the Strength Power Rating TCU's worst game is superior to New Mexico's best, even with home field advantage factored in, but the Lobos win 19 of 14,641 comparisons if TCU's worst offensive and defensive performances are compared to New Mexico's best. So if lightning strikes just right the Horned Frogs could fall. Don't hold your breath though.
Final Prediction: TCU 55, New Mexico 0

• Games Between Ranked Teams (2)
  

'Other' SEC Game this weekend: #6 LSU (10-1) at #12 Arkansas (9-2)

Vegas Line/Spread: Arkansas by 3 1/2
Strength Power Rating Pick: Arkansas 31-26 (62%)
Yardage Analysis Score: Arkansas 34-18
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Arkansas 33-19
Comments: After yesterday's results this one is probably for the Sugar Bowl. Auburn looks like they'll remain in the BCS title game and Alabama is out of the picture, so the winner of this game is the logical choice to replace the Tigers in the Sugar. The difference will be the passing game, which Arkansas has in spades while LSU doesn't.
Final Prediction: Arkansas 34, LSU 27

Big 12 South Title Game: #16 Oklahoma (9-2) at #7 Oklahoma State (10-1)

Vegas Line/Spread: Oklahoma State by 2 1/2
Strength Power Rating Pick: Oklahoma State 36-35 (52%)
Yardage Analysis Score: Oklahoma State 45-38
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Oklahoma State 44-39
Comments: For all intents and purposes, the winner of this game is the Big 12 South champ. If Oklahoma State wins, they're in; if Oklahoma wins it forces a 3-way tie, but the Sooners are all but assured the tiebreaker, which ends up being the team's rank in the BCS standings. Both teams can run the ball and pass, so look for a lot of offense with the Cowboy's explosiveness being offset by their lack of defense to keep things fairly even. The home team has the edge by the numbers and the oddsmakers but the Sooners are putting things together lately and I think they'll win the shootout like Nebraska did when they came to Stillwater.
Final Prediction: Oklahoma 42, Oklahoma State 38

• Big Ten Title Games (3)
  

Big Ten Title Game A: #8 Michigan State (10-1) at Penn State (7-4)

Vegas Line/Spread: Michigan State by 1 1/2
Strength Power Rating Pick: Michigan State 24-21 (57%)
Yardage Analysis Score: Michigan State 24-23
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Michigan State 24-21
Comments: Though in many ways Michigan State deserves the Big Ten title based on head-to-head competition, the Big Ten tiebreakers don't work that way; instead the Spartans need help from arch-rival Michigan. They have to take care of their own business, however, and they're probably the team most likely to lose on Saturday. MSU's power rating is not very good despite their record and success this season, but the Nittany Lions' rating is also less than stellar while their season has been a disappointment. The Spartans aren't playing defense as well as they did in the middle of the season when they were fired up emotionally due to Mark Dantonio's heart attack, and Penn State is playing better offense (but worse defense) than they did early in the year, so look for a higher-than-expected scoring output from these teams in a close game. I'll go with the minor upset.
Final Prediction: Penn State 35, Michigan State 34

Big Ten Title Game B: Northwestern (7-4) at #9 Wisconsin (10-1)

Vegas Line/Spread: Wisconsin by 23
Strength Power Rating Pick: Wisconsin 40-17 (90%)
Yardage Analysis Score: Wisconsin 42-23
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Wisconsin 43-21
Comments: The Strength Power Rating agrees with the oddsmakers to a 'T'. Without Dan Persa the Wildcats are going to have some trouble on offense and at home Wisconsin isn't going to have trouble putting up points. They still have to root for Ohio State to win, otherwise they're left out of the Rose Bowl, but if everything happens as expected they'll be facing TCU in Pasadena.
Final Prediction: Wisconsin 45, Northwestern 21

Big Ten Title Game C: Michigan (7-4) at #10 Ohio State (10-1)

Vegas Line/Spread: Ohio State by 16 1/2
Strength Power Rating Pick: Ohio State 47-25 (86%)
Yardage Analysis Score: Ohio State 49-30
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Ohio State 52-27
Comments: This one is the classic, but it's not as important this year. It's probably more important to Wisconsin than it is to Ohio State, who needs help to reach the Rose Bowl (a Wisconsin loss would probably do it). Denard Robinson isn't quite the phenomenon he was early in the season against weaker defenses when he was at full strength, though he should have his share of highlight reel success. But the Wolverine defense will be the deciding factore; even if Pryor has an off game the Buckeyes will be able to run the ball and run up points.
Final Prediction: Ohio State 49, Michigan 26

• Big (Though Less Significant) Rivalry Games
  

State of Florida Title Game*: Florida (7-4) at Florida State (8-3)

Vegas Line/Spread: FSU by 2
Strength Power Rating Pick: FSU 28-27 (52%)
Yardage Analysis Score: Florida 23-22
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Florida 24-22
Comments: It's very questionable which Florida of the many Florida teams is the best this year, as most have been disappointing. FSU clearly gets the nod over Miami for their 45-17 win, but UCF has the best record of the state's programs. Meanwhile Florida crumbled mid-season and didn't win their division in the SEC. This is the first year in which the outcome really seems a double, but I think Florida will end up on top for yet another year.
Final Prediction: Florida 24, Florida State 23

Battle of First-Year Coaches: Notre Dame (6-5) at USC (7-4)

Vegas Line/Spread: USC by 4 or 4 1/2
Strength Power Rating Pick: USC 31-20 (71%)
Yardage Analysis Score: USC 37-26
Yardage + Turnovers Score: USC 38-25
Comments: It's been a while since Notre Dame has been in the national title picture at the time of this game, but USC has consistently been up there. This year due to their probation they aren't going to a bowl game so unless they were undefeated they wouldn't be in the discussion. Like Florida-FSU, this is the first time in a while that the game is projected to be competitive. I think USC is near enough to the end of its schedule that these late games will be treated as their bowl games, and they'll win yet again. If it comes down to Kelly vs. Kiffin, take the Irish, but the personnel on the field suggest it's still USC's game to lose.
Final Prediction: USC 34, Notre Dame 23

• Another Important BCS Conference Game
  

ACC Atlantic Title Game Decider: North Carolina State (8-3) at Maryland (7-4)

Vegas Line/Spread: NC State by 2
Strength Power Rating Pick: NC State 28-26 (56%)
Yardage Analysis Score: NC State 28-20
Yardage + Turnovers Score: NC State 27-21
Comments: I guess I'm finally on the North Carolina State bandwagon, after weeks of them winning games I didn't think they would. Maryland has had a turnaround year as expected but I thought the Wolfpack would have another building year before making it to a bowl game, let alone the ACC title game which is where they are headed if they win. A Maryland win would send FSU to that game and they are playing at home, but like I said the Wolfpack are riding high this season and should close it out strong.
Final Prediction: North Carolina State 27, Maryland 21

BCS Projections for Sunday, November 28 (Revised x 2): Dream Ends for Boise State, Lives on for Auburn

Everyone wants to know the BCS Standings right now!—before the games have been played, before the polls have been released—instead of just waiting a few days/hours until Sunday evening. So in addition to our projections of the Final BCS Standings, we'll also be predicting the results for the coming Sunday. Check here for the most recent updates.

After Friday's games it's true that a shake up is in the works, but not the one we thought. Two major games turned on a dime and produced the opposite of the expected result. Down 24-0, Auburn rallied and beat Alabama 28-27, while Nevada won the closest of close games and shocked Boise State 34-31 in overtime.

If Alabama had pulled it out, there would have been a huge controversy with many arguing that Auburn still deserved a title shot. It would have been even more intense if Boise had made their short, last-second field goal to win; the Broncos might have lost ground to TCU in the polls, putting the teams in a dead heat in the BCS along with Auburn. But the Tigers' win makes things a lot easier assuming they and Oregon win next week.

Saturday went mostly according to the oddsmakers' projections, except for Oklahoma beating Oklahoma State (which we picked but didn't use in these projections). Just that one major exception causes yet another shakeup in the rankings and leaves a lot of slots unpredictable.

Here are the most recent BCS standings (from November 21, 2010) and this weekend's schedule/results:

rnk  Team          rec  11/26-27 results
1    Oregon       10-0  beat #21 Arizona 48-29
2    Auburn       11-0  beat #11 Alabama 28-27
3    TCU          11-0  beat New Mexico 66-17
4    Boise State  10-0  lost to #19 Nevada 34-31OT
5    LSU          10-1  lost at #12 Arkansas 31-23
6    Stanford     10-1  beat Oregon State 38-0
7    Wisconsin    10-1  beat Northwestern 70-23
8    Ohio State   10-1  beat Michigan 37-7
9    Oklahoma St  10-1  lost to #13 Oklahoma 47-41
10   Michigan St  10-1  beat Penn State 28-22
11   Alabama       9-2  lost to #2 Auburn 28-27
12   Arkansas      9-2  beat #5 LSU 31-23
13   Oklahoma      9-2  beat #9 Oklahoma State 47-41
14   Missouri      9-2  beat Kansas 35-7
15   Nebraska      9-2  beat Colorado 45-17

With the weekend's results and coaches poll in hand, here's an update on what we foresaw for Sunday, and what the actual standings were:

The projected and final BCS top 15 for November 28, 2010 (errors in yellow):

prv  proj  true  Team          rec       prev      proj    actual
2     1     1.   Auburn        12-0    0.9682    0.9777    0.9779
1     2     2.   Oregon        11-0    0.9764    0.9764    0.9777
3     3     3.   TCU           12-0    0.8995    0.9190    0.9167
6     4     4.   Stanford      11-1    0.7763    0.8144    0.8413
7     5     5.   Wisconsin     11-1    0.7688    0.8009    0.8185
8     6     6.   Ohio St.      11-1    0.7148    0.7286    0.7632
12    8     7.   Arkansas      10-2    0.5697    0.7161    0.7189
10    7     8.   Michigan St.  11-1    0.6063    0.7235    0.6980
13    9     9.   Oklahoma      10-2    0.5041    0.6924    0.6780
5    10    10.   LSU           10-2    0.8193    0.5947    0.6067
4    12    11.   Boise St.     10-1    0.8860    0.5260    0.5805
14   11    12.   Missouri      10-2    0.4564    0.5697    0.5148
15   13    13.   Nebraska      10-2    0.4423    0.5075    0.5071
9    16    14.   Oklahoma St.  10-2    0.6815    0.4195    0.4630
16   14    15.   Virg. Tech    10-2    0.4213    0.4689    0.4396 

Auburn didn't seem likely to fall past #3 even had they lost, so it's no surprise that they hold the #2 spot after winning. In fact, they'll probably gain ground in the polls but not enough to unseat Oregon at the top. UPDATE: Now it looks like they could. It depends on the Harris poll but we have them just edging Oregon, not that it matters in the end. It's virtually a tie that the two teams' performances next week could break. UPDATE2: It was only by .002, but Auburn did capture the top spot. That could easily change next week for almost any reason.

Boise State is out of luck, of course. Their loss not only destroys their chance at the national title, it also effectively kills their BCS bowl hopes. They will likely fall out of the top ten. As mentioned, even if they'd made the field goal to win they would have been questionable to pass TCU with a last-second victory; their lead over TCU in the polls was slight and would have suffered. That point is moot, however.

Taking the most advantage of Boise's fall will be Wisconsin and Stanford. The Badgers may edge past the Cardinal for the #4 spot, but as mentioned in the last article this keeps getting predicted and doesn't happen. Particularly if Stanford keeps jumping teams in the polls; they're ahead of Ohio State in the Harris poll and could be in the Coaches poll by Sunday, too, depending on how they do on Saturday. UPDATE1: And now that the Cardinal beat Oregon State 38-0, it's more likely that they move up to #4...but their computer ranking is still an uncertainty so I've kept Wisconsin there. The placing of Stanford is significant because they're guaranteed a BCS bowl at #4 but not at #5. UPDATE2: Now that the coaches poll is out, it looks like once again the Cardinal's gains in the polls outpace the Badgers', and they'll be #4. UPDATE3: This indeed was the case, by a comfortable margin.

The next four spots are the toughest to foresee. Ohio State could land anywhere from #6 to #9; Michigan State anywhere from #6 to #8; Arkansas anywhere from #6 to #8; and Oklahoma from #7 to #9. The polls will make this a bit clearer but predicting the computers for these teams is difficult. Oklahoma State's loss means more poll gains for some of these teams, any of which could pass Ohio State in the end, but the simplest move is that none of the teams pass each other. UPDATE: Based on the coaches poll, this looks like the right order. UPDATE2: Except that Arkansas did pass Michigan State. We overestimated MSU's rise in the computer polls and underestimated Arkansas'.

Boise and LSU will fall quite a bit, with Boise ahead in the polls but getting socked by the computers for their first loss and falling behind LSU in the BCS.

Speaking of Boise, the team that beat them—Nevada—is 11-1 and will come flying into the top 15 at anywhere from 12 to 14. They could be just head of Nebraska and Missouri or just behind. So the Nevada-Nebraska-Missouri trio could be in any order, but all should be ahead of #15 Virginia Tech. After Saturday it looks like Missouri will stay ahead, since they beat Oklahoma and Oklahoma just added quite a bit of value to the computers. UPDATE: Missouri is now slated ahead of Boise State, but this assumes a bigger computer rankings leap than I think the Tigers will get. Also, Nevada got very little love from the coaches after their win, moving up only two spots; they'll be behind not only Missouri and Nebraska but also Virginia Tech, who sailed up to #11 ahead of LSU in the USA poll. UPDATE2: My gut feeling was right; Boise State didn't fall below Missouri. Nevada didn't even make the #15 spot (they were 17th), as Oklahoma State remained high enough in the computers to outflank even Virginia Tech, who is much higher in the polls.

BCS Projections for Sunday, November 28: If Auburn loses, then what?

Everyone wants to know the BCS Standings right now!—before the games have been played, before the polls have been released—instead of just waiting a few days/hours until Sunday evening. So in addition to our projections of the Final BCS Standings, we'll also be predicting the results for the coming Sunday. Check here for the most recent updates.

Last week, for the second straight weekend there was almost no change in the BCS top 15. That should change come Sunday. Not only should Boise State pass TCU, but Alabama is favored to beat Auburn so that's what we're assuming for these projections, and #12 Arkansas is favored over #5 LSU as well. So a shake-up could be in the works.

With games on both Friday and Saturday, we'll make a second set of predictions based on what happened Friday, which will be crucial since that's when #1 Oregon, #2 Auburn, and #4 Boise State play.

Here are the current BCS standings (from November 21, 2010) and this weekend's schedule:

rnk  Team          rec  11/26-27 opponent
1    Oregon       10-0  #21 Arizona (Fri)
2    Auburn       11-0  at #11 Alabama (Fri)
3    TCU          11-0  at New Mexico
4    Boise State  10-0  at #19 Nevada (Fri)
5    LSU          10-1  at #12 Arkansas
6    Stanford     10-1  Oregon State
7    Wisconsin    10-1  Northwestern
8    Ohio State   10-1  Michigan
9    Oklahoma St  10-1  #13 Oklahoma
10   Michigan St  10-1  at Penn State
11   Alabama       9-2  #2 Auburn (Fri)
12   Arkansas      9-2  #5 LSU
13   Oklahoma      9-2  at #9 Oklahoma State
14   Missouri      9-2  vs. Kansas
15   Nebraska      9-2  Colorado (Fri)

Other intra-BCS-top-25 battles include #13 Oklahoma at #9 Oklahoma State, #21 Arizona at #1 Oregon, and #19 Nevada at #4 Boise State. The higher-rated team is favored in these contests, and no other upsets are assumed here; the oddsmakers' line is used to determine the projected winners.

The projected BCS top 15 for November 28, 2010:

pre  new  Team          rec 
1     1.  Oregon        11-0
4     2.  Boise St.     11-0
2     3.  Auburn        11-1
3     4.  TCU           12-0
7     5.  Wisconsin     11-1
6     6.  Stanford      11-1
11    7.  Alabama       10-2
8     8.  Ohio St.      11-1
9     9.  Oklahoma St.  11-1
12   10.  Arkansas      10-2
5    11.  LSU           10-2
10   12.  Michigan St.  11-1
14   13.  Missouri      10-2
15   14.  Nebraska      10-2
16   15.  Virg. Tech    10-2
 

Auburn probably won't fall past #4 in the polls, considering who they've beaten and with only a loss to Alabama, and the fact that some don't like the idea of non-AQ conference teams in the national championship. If it's a blowout they could fall farther, but even a blowout won't make them fall far at all in the computer rankings, placing anywhere from 5th at lowest all the way up to remaining #1 in the individual systems, and ranking 2nd or 3rd in the composite when the top and bottom are thrown out. This means Auburn shouldn't fall past #3 in the BCS, and it's even possible they hold #2. Either way, they'll probably be in good enough position for the final #2 spot to be up for grabs given that the Tigers and Broncos both play another game, and Auburn's will be worth a lot more.

But for this week Boise State should pass both Auburn and TCU, meaning they would be #2 come Sunday. Their goal is to win big enough over Nevada to not only pass TCU, but create a buffer that prevents Auburn from having a chance to regain the #2 spot. The Horned Frogs play New Mexico which is a no-win for them, but they could hold the #3 spot if Auburn loses badly enough.

The #5 through #7 spots are up in the air. My models keep predicting that Stanford will eventually slip in the computers, holding their BCS ranking back, but it doesn't happen. So take Wisconsin's #5 ranking with a grain of salt. Working for the Badgers is their #5 poll position; some pollsters may want to drop Auburn farther than #4 (due to Cam Newton?) and Wisconsin should benefit. Then again, Stanford keeps winning solidly and the pollsters keep rewarding them, so some might have the Cardinal jump the Badgers. The other wild card is Alabama and how much they get moved up in the polls and computers for beating Auburn. They could end up as high as #5 but #7 seems more likely, as they probably won't surpass #9 in the polls.

Ohio State should just barely hold off Oklahoma State for #8, though the Cowboys have a chance to pass them with a big enough win over Oklahoma. Arkansas should jump past LSU if they beat them, and in doing so would pass Michigan State, with LSU in the mix somewhere either in front of or behind the Spartans. Missouri, Nebraska, and Virginia Tech should round out the top 15.

I'll update again after Friday's games, after Saturday's, and after the coaches poll comes out Sunday.

Week 13 Preview, Odds, and Predictions, Part One: Top teams in action Friday

Once again last week's picks went pretty well: 9-1 straight up, and 6-2-1 against the spread. That's 17-3 and 13-5-1 over the last two weeks. It helps that there haven't been many upsets, particularly for the straight up numbers. This weekend's action is split with many games on Friday in addition to Saturday's action, so to make it easy I'll cover the early games first and Saturday's games in a separate post.

Friday has far fewer games than Saturday but interestingly three of the four undefeated teams play on Friday, with Oregon, Auburn, and Boise State all taking on ranked opponents.

Here are Thursday and Friday's top games:

Thursday Evening's Game: #16 Texas A&M (8-3) at Texas (5-6)

Vegas Line/Spread: Texas A&M by 3 1/2
Strength Power Rating Pick: Texas A&M 26-15 (wins 73% of offense/defense performance comparisons)
Yardage Analysis Score: Texas A&M 21-17
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Texas A&M 23-17
Comments: Texas will either get the upset that saves their post-season, or they'll get the loss that puts the finishing touches on their most disappointing year in recent memory. Texas A&M will either get the win that tops off their splendid season or face another heartbreaking loss to the Longhorns. I put this game on the board since the chances of an upset are high; the Aggies have been cruising along and are ripe for a disappointment. They're also raring to go to beat their rival. So what happens? Your guess is as good as mine, and the oddsmakers are conservative with this one due to the rivalry. If this were played in College Station it would be a blowout. In Austin the Longhorns have a chance even though they haven't played well at home by a longshot. Blowout or upset? I'm going with upset, as karma comes back to haunt the ballbusting Aggies.
Final Prediction: Texas 24, Texas A&M 21

Game of the Week: #2 Auburn (11-0) at #11 Alabama (9-2)

Vegas Line/Spread: Alabama by 4
Strength Power Rating Pick: Alabama 34-27 (wins 67%)
Yardage Analysis Score: Auburn 34-31
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Auburn 33-32
Comments: This is a huge game in terms of the national championship, as Alabama is favored to win which would scramble things up quite a bit. The Tide have been a much better team on average despite losing two games, while the Tigers have squeaked by several opponents. The yardage numbers paint a stronger picture for Auburn, and ultimately I think it will be the fact that the game is in Tuscaloosa that will be the difference. Alabama will be able to pass on the Tigers while Auburn will be able to run on the Tide, each approaching 300 yards with just over 400 total yards apiece. Auburn will lose but lose very close, enough so that people will argue that they still deserve a spot in the national title game.
Final Prediction: Alabama 33, Auburn 30

2nd Biggest Game this Weekend: #2 Boise State (10-0) at #15 Nevada (10-1)

Vegas Line/Spread: Boise State by 14
Strength Power Rating Pick: Boise State 45-29 (83%)
Yardage Analysis Score: Boise State 48-30
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Boise State 49-30
Comments: If Boise is due for a "down" game I think it will come next week against Utah State, not in what has become their 2nd most important game of the season. Nevada has played Boise very tough lately, home or away, with the Broncos winning by an average of less than a touchdown the last three times out. Before that, though, Boise dominated by an average of 39 points from 2001 to 2006. The Wolf Pack have a powerful offense that even Boise's very improved defense can't shut down, at least not the way they handled Fresno State. The key battle is Nevada's rushing offense (#5 per-game, #2 per-carry, adjusted for opponents) against Boise State's rush defense (#10 and #2 in those same stats). Either way, the Wolf Pack can't stop Boise's passing game; Nevada may mount around 400 yards of total offense but Boise should top 500. The Broncos know they need a big performance here to pass TCU—just like TCU knew they needed a huge road win against Utah...and we know what happened there.
Final Prediction: Boise State 47, Nevada 24

The Forgotten Big Game: #21 Arizona (7-3) at #1 Oregon (10-0)

Vegas Line/Spread: Oregon by 19
Strength Power Rating Pick: Oregon 43-20 (91%)
Yardage Analysis Score: Oregon 45-30
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Oregon 46-28
Comments: With so many picking Auburn to lose, and wondering if Boise might get upset by Nevada, it seems that Oregon is considered a foregone conclusion to reach 12-0. Really they have two tough games left: against Arizona and then in-state rival Oregon State on the road. Though both defenses are strong, expect a lot of yards in this one, similar to the Boise State-Nevada game: Oregon should reach about 500, Arizona 400. In Tucson this would be a close game but at home Oregon ought to roll.
Final Prediction: Oregon 44, Arizona 24

Big East BCS Buster: West Virginia (7-3) at Pittsburgh (6-4)

Vegas Line/Spread: Pitt by 2 1/2
Strength Power Rating Pick: Pitt 21-17 (59%)
Yardage Analysis Score: West Virginia 17-14
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Pittsburgh 20-17 OT
Comments: Whoever wins this game has the inside track to a BCS bowl game. Well, more accurately if Pitt wins they remain in the driver's seat, and if the Mountaineers win then it causes a three-way tie with Connecticut in control going into the final lap. But whoever wins remains alive to be in one of the most lucrative bowl games in the nation, while either TCU or Boise State may be out of luck. Both teams have had their bad moments this year but I'll take the Panthers at home.
Final Prediction: Pittsburgh 20, West Virginia 17

Top 25 Entrance Exam: Southern Miss (8-3) at Tulsa (8-3)

Vegas Line/Spread: Tulsa by 3 1/2
Strength Power Rating Pick: Tulsa 37-32 (60%)
Yardage Analysis Score: Southern Miss 38-34
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Southern Miss 37-35
Comments: This should be yet another game with 900 total yards of offense. Neither team has a lot of good wins to hang its hat on, but the losses aren't bad either. Southern Miss beat Central Florida while Tulsa upset Notre Dame, and both teams beat Houston. The Golden Hurricane lost to Oklahoma State, East Carolina, and SMU; the Golden Eagles fell to South Carolina, East Carolina, and UAB. With not a lot of difference between the two teams' performances, I'll again go with the home team in a close one.
Final Prediction: Tulsa 36, Southern Miss 34

Heisman Trophy Week 12: A Consensus Top Five?

A few weeks to go and it looks like there is a consensus top five in the Heisman race.  After eliminating two players this week, my list is in line with the various Heisman polls, usually down to the very order. That's not my goal, but it validates my unusual "Survivor"-like method of selection (add a player a week for the first 10 weeks, then eliminate two per week).

Cam Newton and LaMichael James didn't play last weekend, but they were safe from getting the axe. Kellen Moore threw four touchdown passes in a 51-0 win so he was safe. After that, there were four players, two of whom were cut.

All four played and each player's team won. Terrelle Pryor led Ohio State's 20-17 comeback win over Iowa; Andrew Luck led Stanford to a 48-14 crushing of Cal, while Justin Blackmon's Oklahoma State Cowboys drubbed Kansas by the same score; and Colin Kaepernick's Nevada Wolf Pack ran all over New Mexico State 52-6.

This week's list, in rough order (click here for the most recent update):

• Cam Newton, Junior, QB Auburn (11-0) [added week six]
  135-198(68.2%) 2038yd 21TD 6int; 206rsh 1297yd (6.3av) 17TD 0fmb; 1TD rec
  
• Kellen Moore, Junior, QB Boise State (10-0) [added week two]
  201-280(71.8%) 2921yd 28TD 5int; 12rsh -23yd (-2.0 av) 0TD 2fmb
• LaMichael James, Soph, RB Oregon (10-0) [added week five]
  225rsh 1422yd (6.3av) 17TD 4fmb; 10rec 149yd 1TD
• Andrew Luck, Soph, QB Stanford (10-1) [added week eight]
  224-319(70.2%) 2746yd 24TD 7int; 49rsh 445yd (9.1av) 3TD 4fmb
• Justin Blackmon, Soph, WR Oklahoma St (10-1) [added week seven]
  94rec 1560yd 17TD 0fmb; 4rsh 77yds (19av) 1TD; 1 block return TD
  
• Terrelle Pryor, Jr, QB Ohio State (10-1) [added week 3, removed week 12]
  178-271(65.7%) 2331yd 23TD 10int;108rsh 590yd (5.5av) 4TD 0fmb; 1TD rec
  
• Colin Kaepernick, Sr, QB Nevada (10-1) [added week 4, removed week 12]
  181-274(66.1%) 2412yd 19TD 6int;134rsh 984yd (7.3av) 16TD 3fmb
  
• Andy Dalton, Senior, QB TCU [added week 9, removed week 11]
  
• Denard Robinson, Soph, QB Michigan [added week 1, removed week 11]
  
• Mark Ingram, Junior, RB Alabama [added pre-season, removed week 10]

Terrelle Pryor got a lot of press for his 14-yard run on 4th and 10 near the end of the Iowa game, but that was his best moment in a game where he threw two interceptions, including one where the receiver was wide open. Had he done his job there the Buckeyes wouldn't have needed last-minute heroics.

Comparing his stats to Andrew Luck's, Pryor has clearly fallen behind (they had nearly identical stats at one time). Luck has a much better completion percentage now, more yards, more TDs, and fewer interceptions, and even slightly more yards per attempt (by .01). Pryor has more rushing yards but Luck's per-carry average is far better (an amazing 9.1 yards), and his 58-yard run against Cal was a far better "Heisman moment" than Pryor's 14-yarder, particularly when Luck bowled over the safety. Choosing from the final two "mainstream" candidates in the race, I choose Luck.

That leaves my two longshot candidates, one of whom has become mainstream recently, climbing into the top five in the various Heisman polls. It's Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon, who is also my pick to stay in the race. He had his typical outing: 10 catches, 130 yards. He's the wide receiver equivalent of LaMichael James; both lead the nation in total yards as well as yards per game, and both do this despite missing a game (James missed game one due to assault charges, Blackmon missed a game due to a DUI). The difference? James has had a few sub-100 yard games while Blackmon has had over 100 receiving yards in every outing (and at least one touchdown).

So even though Nevada's Colin Kaepernick has his chance to shine against Boise State, he didn't make it that far on my list. Though he threw well and had two TD passes, he had just 35 rushing yards last weekend, and needed to have big games to stay in contention. His numbers are very similar to Newton's, though the latter has clearly faced stronger competition.

Total-TD-to-turnover (TTT) table

Using the seven active candidates from last week, here are each player's total TDs (rushing, passing, receiving, returning) vs. total turnovers (interceptions, fumbles) ranked by the formula TD/(TO+1)

Player            TDs  TOs    TTT 
Justin Blackmon   19    0     19.0
Cam Newton        39    6     5.57
LaMichael James   18    4     3.60
Kellen Moore      28    7     3.50
Colin Kaepernick  35    9     3.50
Terrelle Pryor    28   10     2.55
Andrew Luck       27   11     2.25
 

Blackmon still dominates due to being a receiver. Kellen Moore's numbers fall a bit due to a fumble and an interception, and Andrew Luck's position at the bottom of the chart doesn't bode well for him.

After next weekend two more will be cut, leaving the final three. Luck and Blackmon have their work cut out for them as their is a clear top three in the race, but if Boise State is upset by Nevada Moore is probably out. Newton and James could survive a loss with a solid personal performance, but since Stanford and Oklahoma State already have a loss each, a second would sink their candidates. Both will need strong, multiple-touchdown performances to remain in the race.

2010 Projected Final BCS Standings (post week 12): just 2 weeks left

This year we are projecting the Final (pre-bowl) BCS Standings each week, based on our pre-season standings and using the projected winner from each game. Every week these projections will be updated using the actual results for that week. For the most recent projection click here. This will be the last installment of this format since there are two weeks left; before the final weekend there will be only the weekly top 15 projection.

Here is the projection using our pre-season prognostications combined with results through week 12 (11/20/2010):

2010 Projected Final BCS Rankings  - post-week 12
lw	#	Team	record	BCS Bowl	Current BCS#	If they win out
1	1	Oregon	12-0	Title Game	1	1
2	2	Boise St	12-0	Title Game	4	2
3	3	Auburn	12-1	Sugar	2	2
4	4	TCU	12-0	Fiesta/Orange?	3	4
7	5	Wisconsin	11-1	Rose	7	5
6	6	Stanford	11-1	Rose	6	6
5	7	Alabama	10-2	Orange	11	7
9	8	Ohio State	11-1	Sugar	8	8
8	9	Oklahoma	11-2	Fiesta	13	9
11	10	Arkansas	10-2		12	10
12	11	Missouri	10-2		14	11
13	12	LSU	10-2	(Orange)	5	5
14	13	Virginia Tech	11-2	Orange	16	13
15	14	Oklahoma St	10-2	(Fiesta)	9	4
10	15	Nebraska	10-3	(Fiesta)	15	9
16	16	Michigan St	10-2		10	9
18	17	Utah	10-2		20	17
17	18	Iowa	8-4		24	18
19	19	Arizona	8-4		21	15
22	20	Florida	8-4		--	20

Using this projection, we get the following probable bowl pairings (favorites in bold):

BCS Championship Game:	Oregon vs. Boise State
Rose Bowl:	Wisconsin vs. Stanford
Sugar Bowl:	Auburn vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl:	Virginia Tech vs. Alabama
Fiesta Bowl:	Oklahoma vs. Pittsburgh (BCS #30)

This week's notes:

• Most changes this week are due to Nebraska's loss

Nebraska's loss was an "upset" to the projection, so they slide to #15 from #10 where they would have finished if they'd won out but lost in the Big 12 title game. Other teams slide up to fill the gap, and Oklahoma's win over them in the title game won't mean as much now so the Sooners fall to #9.

Auburn at 1 loss is still very close to remaining #2 but Boise looks like the #2 if they beat Nevada soundly enough and finish strong. Wisconsin, Stanford, and Alabama are very tight for #5 but now it doesn't look like the Tide are positioned well to jump that high for beating Auburn. It also still looks like Stanford's computer rating will fade slightly over the next few weeks, but it doesn't matter; Wisconsin and Stanford will be in the Rose Bowl as long as Auburn loses.

And Pitt at 8-4 still looks like the probable Big East winner, meaning they'll be in a BCS bowl as we've thought pretty much all year.

• Many possible bowl deviations for Fiesta, Orange

With the current assumptions (Auburn loses to Alabama, LSU to Arkansas, Oklahoma wins out) the Sugar would take Ohio State with their pick, the Orange Alabama, and the Fiesta is left with Pitt. Here are some of the more likely variations.

Orange: Virginia Tech is the only sure thing (assumes they win the ACC). Alabama will probably be the pick, but if LSU wins out the Tigers will be the obvious choice and a score for the bowl at 11-1. TCU has a chance of being picked, too, but they shouldn't hold their breath.

Fiesta: The variations of course include either Oklahoma State or Nebraska winning the Big 12, in which case the Cowboys or Cornhuskers would be the Big 12 rep. If something happens to force the Orange Bowl to take Pitt then TCU is in play here, too.

• TCU's best bet is the Sugar Bowl if Ohio State loses to Michigan

If TCU wants to be all but assured of a BCS bowl bid despite Boise State passing them (assuming that happens), then an Ohio State loss to Michigan would be a huge help, probably putting them in the Sugar Bowl.

Right now if Auburn wins the SEC at 12-1 they play in the Sugar Bowl. Ohio State at 11-1 would be a perfect matchup: a high-profile team that travels well and gets good tv ratings. If the Buckeyes lose, however, they might not be in the top 14 to qualify for an at-large bid, and they would be a hard sell at 10-2 if they fall out of the top 10.

The Sugar's other at-large choices other than TCU would include three 10-2 SEC teams (which they couldn't take), and two Big 12 teams outside the top 10 (Missouri, Oklahoma State). TCU would very likely be chosen for the Sugar in that case, with the rest of the field remaining the same.

• Cut the list to top 20 from 25

Beyond the top 20 things are getting ragged as almost of the teams there are projected to lose a game, and they could finish in any order. Not very many of them have a shot at getting into the top 14 if they win out in any case, with Nevada being an exception along with South Carolina and possibly Florida State.

After this weekend I'll have multiple Top 15 projections for various game results for the final weekend. A lot will be clearer, but most of the top teams will still have games left so nothing will be certain until the very end.

==================================================================

BCS Selection Rules for 2010-11
(simplified; full detail here):

• #1 and #2 teams go into BCS Championship game;

then, if still available:

• Rose Bowl gets Big 10, Pac 10 champs*
• Sugar Bowl gets SEC champ
• Orange Bowl gets ACC champ
• Fiesta Bowl gets Big 12 champ

After these conference winners have been placed, selections will be made in the following order:

• BCS #1 team is replaced*
• BCS #2 team is replaced*
• Sugar Bowl picks its 2nd team
• Orange Bowl picks its 2nd team
• Fiesta Bowl picks its 2nd team

*special Rose Bowl note: In replacing a Big Ten or Pac-10 team that makes the BCS title game, the Rose Bowl will select an automatic non-BCS qualifier.

Automatic qualifiers: All of the BCS conference champs must be selected, along with Notre Dame if in the top 8, any one other non-BCS-conference champ if in the top 12 (or top 16 if ranked ahead of a BCS conference champ), and in most cases either the #3 or #4 team in the BCS rankings (if they are BCS-conference teams).

Beyond the automatic qualifiers, the remaining teams are selected "at-large". At-large teams must be selected from those in the top 14.

SportsRatings Top 25 Week 12: Who is Best in the Big Ten?

Welcome to the SportsRatings College Football Top 25 for the week ending November 20, 2010. This is a subjective ranking, not a computer power rating. It does attempt to use several rules, some of which include honoring head-to-head results whenever possible, and giving more consideration to teams with wins over other top 25 teams.

Oregon and Auburn didn't play and remain #1 and #2, while Boise State moves up to #3. They're just playing a bit better than TCU, and now have two top 25 wins as Hawaii enters. Nevada will make it three, or else TCU will regain the #3 spot next week.

A similar switch happens at #5, where Stanford's 48-14 win over Cal, coupled with LSU's struggles against Ole Miss, point out how much better the Cardinal really are. LSU's solid résumé keeps them at #6 but really they're not a top ten team. Still, if they can beat Arkansas I might move them back into the top five.

The Big Ten has three 10-1 teams, and just as many ways to decide who is the top team among them. He they are ranked in the order that head-to-head competition demands: Michigan State, then Wisconsin, then Ohio State. But if we were to rank them purely on who is the best team the order would be clearly reversed: Ohio State is #6 in the Strength Power Rating, Wisconsin far behind at #18, and Michigan State a dismal #35! Yet who is going to the Rose Bowl if they all win out? Probably Wisconsin.

I move Oklahoma State ahead of all three to #7; the Cowboys have an equally strong résumé and are playing much better overall than two of the three Big Ten teams (they rank 10th in Strength). And they'll have to prove it against Oklahoma next week or fall anyway.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week 12 2010 (thru 11/20/2010)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Oregon	10-0	wStanford 52-31, @USC 53-32
2	2	Auburn	11-0	wLSU 24-17, SCar 35-27, Ark 65-43, @MissSt 17-14
4	3	Boise State	10-0	[email protected] 33-30, Hawaii 42-7
3	4	TCU	11-0	[email protected] 47-7
6	5	Stanford	10-1	[email protected] 52-31; wArizona 42-17, USC 37-35
5	6	LSU	10-1	[email protected] 24-17; wAlabama 24-21, MissSt 29-7
10	7	Oklahoma St	10-1	L Nebraska 51-41; wTexAM 38-35
8	8	Michigan St	10-1	[email protected] 37-6; wWisconsin 34-24, @Nwest 35-27
9	9	Wisconsin	10-1	[email protected] 34-24; wOhioSt 31-18
11	10	Ohio State	10-1	[email protected] 31-18; wOhio 43-7
12	11	Alabama	9-2	[email protected] 35-21, @LSU 24-21; [email protected] 24-20, MissSt 30-10
13	12	Arkansas	9-2	[email protected] 65-43, Bama 24-20; [email protected] 41-20, =A&M 21-14, @MissSt38-31ot
7	13	Nebraska	9-2	L Texas 20-13, @TexAM 9-6; wMizz 31-17, @OKst 51-41
14	14	Missouri	9-2	[email protected] 24-17, @Neb 31-17; wOK 36-27, TexAM 30-9
15	15	Nevada	9-1	[email protected] 27-21
16	16	Texas A&M	8-3	L Mizz 30-9, =Ark 21-14, @OKst 38-35; wOK 33-19, Neb 9-6
17	17	Oklahoma	9-2	[email protected] 36-27, @TexAM 33-19
18	18	South Carolina	8-3	[email protected] 31-28, @Aub 35-27, Ark 41-20; wBama 35-21
20	19	Utah	9-2	[email protected] 28-3, TCU 47-7
21	20	Virginia Tech	9-2	L JMadison 21-16, Boise 33-30
23	21	Arizona	7-3	L OregonSt 29-27, USC 24-21, @Stanford 42-17
24	22	Northern Illinois	9-2	[email protected] 27-10, @ILL 28-22; wTemple 31-17
19	23	Mississippi St	7-4	[email protected] 29-7, Aub 17-14, @Bama 30-10, Ark 38-31ot
--	24	Ohio	8-3	[email protected] 24-23, Tol 20-13, @OSU 43-7; [email protected] 31-23
--	25	Hawaii	8-3	[email protected] 31-13, USC 49-36, @Boise 42-7; wNev 27-21
		out:
22	--	USC	7-4	L Wash 32-31, @OreSt 36-7, @Stan 37-35, Ore 53-32; [email protected] 24-21, @Hawaii 49-36
25t	--	Temple	8-3	[email protected] 22-13, Ohio 31-23, @NoILL 31-17
25t	--	Northwestern	7-4	L Purdue 20-17, ILL 48-27, @PennSt 35-21, MichSt 35-27

Alabama holds a win over Arkansas and stays head of them at #11; Nebraska lost this weekend but beat Missouri a few weeks ago, so their slide stops at #13. As for Texas A&M, they are surrounded by teams they beat (#13, #17) or lost to (#7, #12, #14), still ahead of Oklahoma (who has no top 25 wins) but behind the Cornhuskers who they beat at home by just a field goal. They also remain behind 1-loss Nevada who will move in one direction or another next week after facing Boise State.

South Carolina holds at #18. Utah and Virginia Tech both move up a spot after decent wins (Utah over San Diego State, the Hokies over Miami). Another 2-loss team, Northern Illinois, is up to #22, but lose their top 25 win as Temple falls out. The Owls lost to Ohio, who debuts at #24.

Arizona slides up to #21 on an idle week as Mississippi State falls to #23 after losing in double overtime to Arkansas. The Bulldogs have four losses, all to top 25 teams, with two of those games very competitive. They are the only 4-loss team ranked here.

USC is dumped after they got blasted by Oregon State 36-7. The Trojans actually have two top 25 wins now as Hawaii enters, so they could get back in fairly soon, but they were beaten too badly to keep this week. Also falling out was Northwestern, who lost to Illinois at Wrigley Field.

BCS Projections for Sunday, November 21: Updated Projections and Rankings

Everyone wants to know the BCS Standings right now!—before the games have been played, before the polls have been released—instead of just waiting a few days/hours until Sunday evening. So in addition to our projections of the Final BCS Standings, we'll also be predicting the results for the coming Sunday. Check here for the most recent updates.

Another week of few upsets, but this time one top ten team did lose as Nebraska fell 9-6 to Texas A&M. Nebraska was poised to perhaps pick up a spot or two in the crowded 6 to 8 range, but now will struggle to hold on to a top 15 ranking.

Here are the current BCS standings (from November 14, 2010) and this weekend's results:

rnk  Team          rec  11/20 results
1    Oregon       10-0  idle
2    Auburn       11-0  idle 
3    TCU          11-0  idle 
4    Boise State   9-0  beat Fresno State 51-0 Fri. 
5    LSU           9-1  beat Mississippi 43-36 
6    Stanford      9-1  beat California 48-14
7    Wisconsin     9-1  beat Michigan 48-28
8    Nebraska      9-1  lost to #19 Texas A&M 9-6
9    Ohio State    9-1  beat #20 Iowa 20-17
10   Oklahoma St   8-1  beat Kansas 48-14
11   Alabama       8-2  beat Georgia St 63-7 Thurs.
12   Michigan St   9-1  beat Purdue 35-31
13   Arkansas      8-2  beat #21 Miss. St 38-31 2OT
14   Oklahoma      8-2  beat Baylor 53-24
15   Missouri      8-2  beat Iowa State 14-0
 

As expected, Nebraska held on, so the top 15 contains the same teams as last week but in a slightly different order.

The projected and actual BCS top 15 for November 21, 2010:

prev proj true Team           rec    11/14 ave  proj ave  11/21 ave
1     1    1.  Oregon        10-0    0.9753     0.9763     0.9764   
2     2    2.  Auburn        11-0    0.9687     0.9691     0.9682   
3     3    3.  TCU           11-0    0.8966     0.8868     0.8995   
4     4    4.  Boise St.     10-0    0.8634     0.8737     0.8860   
5     5    5.  LSU           10-1    0.8243     0.8243     0.8193
6     7    6.  Stanford      10-1    0.7553     0.7594     0.7763   
7     6    7.  Wisconsin     10-1    0.7258     0.7654     0.7688   
9     9    8.  Ohio St.      10-1    0.6674     0.6981     0.7148   
10    8    9.  Oklahoma St.  10-1    0.6601     0.7116     0.6815   
12   10   10.  Michigan St.  10-1    0.6066     0.6324     0.6063   
11   11   11.  Alabama        9-2    0.6151     0.6242     0.6019   
13   12   12.  Arkansas       9-2    0.5133     0.5542     0.5697   
14   13   13.  Oklahoma       9-2    0.4728     0.4754     0.5041   
15   14   14.  Missouri       9-2    0.4563     0.4606     0.4564   
8    15   15.  Nebraska       9-2    0.7203     0.4371     0.4423

Pre-coaches poll analysis - who is #3?

Oregon and Auburn were idle and will keep the top two spots. TCU was idle, too, and is in danger of falling to #4 behind Boise State, but it looks like the Horned Frogs will lose only a small amount of computer support while the Broncos will gain just a small amount. So it all depends on how much the voters extend Boise's currently slim lead, and it probably won't quite be enough.

Another possible move is for Wisconsin to take over #6 from Stanford, and again the voters will have the final say. The Badgers will pick up more slots on the computers from Nebraska's loss and could edge ahead. But Stanford's domination of Cal one week after Oregon nearly lost to the Bears is an issue that should help the Cardinal retain their spot. It should be close.

Oklahoma State will likely move past Ohio State into the #8 spot. The Cowboys and Buckeyes both will make gains in the computer rankings but only Oklahoma State will move up in the polls as Nebraska falls below them, and should inch past. Also, Michigan State as suggested on Friday will likely jump to #10, passing Alabama who is stalled in the computers by playing a I-AA team. Michigan State's close call with Purdue might not help them with the humans, though.

The final positions are up for grabs too between Nebraska, Missouri, and perhaps Virginia Tech. The Cornhuskers probably won't fall below Missouri in the polls and they'll stay close enough in the computers to be in a dead heat with the Tigers. Tie goes to the polls, where Nebraska's narrow loss and the fact they beat Missouri a few weeks ago should prevail.

Post-Coaches poll analysis

Things look about the same after the USA Today poll came out. TCU appears likely to hold onto the #3 spot. Wisconsin still could pass Stanford if the computers pan out the way we think, but again some of the computer rankings throw curves. And after seeing exactly how Nebraska fell in the USA poll, it looks like they'll be behind Missouri at #15 despite remaining ahead in the polls. Again that's dependent on the computers who might not drop Nebraska as far as we assume.

Post-announcement analysis

TCU held the #3 spot as expected, and even gained a few points, but Boise closed the gap dramatically. Stanford gained enough in the Harris poll to remain ahead of Wisconsin; the Cardinal actually passed Ohio State in that poll, but the Buckeyes still held off Oklahoma State for the #8 spot. In fact, the Buckeyes pulled away from the Cowboys a bit. Michigan State did indeed pass Alabama, though both teams lost a bit of ground. And Nebraska did end up at #15 just behind Missouri.

Stanford Makes Their Own Statement, beats Cal 48-14

Do you think the Pac-10 wishes they'd scheduled Oregon and Stanford to play late in the season rather than early?

Imagine if Stanford were still undefeated, having defeated the Golden Bears 48-14 in Berkeley a week after Oregon struggled to a 15-13 win. Both teams would have been in the top five and many would be predicting a Cardinal victory.

Instead, Stanford's best hope is for a Rose Bowl berth, which they will get unless the bowl is forced to take Boise State or TCU.

Stanford dominated from the start on Saturday, leading 31-0 at the half and 45-0 in the third quarter. Andrew Luck had a 58 yard run in which he collided with—and bowled over—a Cal defender. He threw for two touchdowns on 16 of 20 passing, keeping his Heisman chances alive. He should at least finish in the top five.

Ohio State beats Iowa; Virginia Tech intercepts Miami

In other games, Ohio State beat Iowa 20-17. Terrelle Pryor struggled at times, missing a wide open receiver in the end zone and getting intercepted instead in the first half, but he ran for 14 yards on a 4th and 10 that would have ended the game with the Buckeyes down 17-13. He finished with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions; his own Heisman hopes may have taken a hit or been slightly enhanced, depending on what voters think but in my book he fell behind Luck for good.

The Buckeyes kept up with the Joneses in the Big Ten race as Wisconsin beat Michigan 48-28 and Michigan State rallied to beat Purdue 35-31, but the Buckeyes are unlikely to go to the Rose Bowl. All three teams are 6-1 in conference and have fairly tough challenges next week; Ohio State hosts Michigan, Wisconsin hosts Northwestern, and the Spartants visit Penn State. If Ohio State loses, Michigan State goes to the Rose Bowl; if Michigan State loses, Wisconsin goes. If Wisconsin loses or all three win, the Big Ten winner is decided by BCS ranking, in which Wisconsin has a hard-to-beat lead.

In the ACC, Virginia Tech clinched the Coastal championship by beating Miami 31-17. The Hokies pulled away late due to interceptions, garnering three in all. They will now face either FSU, N.C. State, or Maryland for the ACC title and a Rose Bowl berth.

Boise Makes a Statement, 51-0 over Fresno State

Boise State's 51-0 win last night over Fresno State probably means that they will pass TCU in the BCS on Sunday.

Fresno State is not a bad team at all, particularly on offense. In their three previous losses they scored 38, 27, and 34 points. 27 was their low for the year; the Bulldogs scored over 30 seven of nine times.

Boise State's offense scored exactly the 51 that the Strength Power Rating projected, but their defense was expected to yield around 18. Instead they bottled up the Bulldogs both on the ground and through the air. The former wasn't a big surprise; we said the Bulldogs wouldn't get 100 yards—instead they got fewer than 50, with Robbie Rouse held to 70 after rushing for 200+ the last two games. Quarterback Ryan Colburn had a worse time, though, completing only 6 of 23 attempts for 79 yards and 2 interceptions.

TCU's idle week will cause them to slip a bit with the computers as the teams playing will pass them in some of the rankings, while Boise State's win will boost them a bit, drawing the teams closer. And Boise State should expand its very narrow lead over the Horned Frogs in the USA and Harris polls. The upshot is a very tight race for the BCS #3 spot which I think Boise State will get by a small margin.

Given that Auburn is widely expected to lose to Alabama, the #3 spot becomes very important, and as we've been projecting since the Tide's 2nd loss, it looks more and more likely that the Broncos will face Oregon for the national championship.

Just a few weeks ago, following TCU's win over Utah, pundits around the country were stating with authority that Boise State would be the team "left out" of the BCS system since they'd be the #2 non-AQ school. We pointed out that A) TCU had peaked with the computers and would only decline, B) Utah would probably lose again—probably to Notre Dame even—and that would hurt TCU in both the polls and with the computers, and C) Boise State had four games left to TCU's two games, and against better competition, facts that help them immensely. We predicted that Boise State would be the top non-AQ team when all was said and done—if they delivered on the field.

And the last point is still valid. This performance helps, but the crucial one is next week against Nevada. And even after that, they have to beat Utah State forcefully. A bad performance in either and TCU or even a 1-loss Auburn could finish ahead in the final BCS.

But the way it's looking at the moment, the Broncos are headed for either the title game or at least, the Rose Bowl.

BCS Projections for Sunday, November 21: Boise State, TCU Deadlocked

Everyone wants to know the BCS Standings right now!—before the games have been played, before the polls have been released—instead of just waiting a few days/hours until Sunday evening. So in addition to our projections of the Final BCS Standings, we'll also be predicting the results for the coming Sunday. Check here for the most recent updates.

Last weekend there was almost no change in the top 15; in fact, the top ten remained the same. This weekend could bring more of the same, for two reasons. 1) The top three teams in the BCS are idle, and 2) there are no intra-top 15 games this week, and only a few between a top 15 and top 25 BCS team.

Here are the current BCS standings (from November 14, 2010) and this weekend's schedule:

rnk  Team          rec  11/20 opponent
1    Oregon       10-0  idle
2    Auburn       11-0  idle 
3    TCU          11-0  idle 
4    Boise State   9-0  Fresno State (Friday) 
5    LSU           9-1  Mississippi 
6    Stanford      9-1  at California
7    Wisconsin     9-1  at Michigan
8    Nebraska      9-1  at #19 Texas A&M
9    Ohio State    9-1  at #20 Iowa
10   Oklahoma St   8-1  at Kansas
11   Alabama       8-2  beat Georgia St 63-7 Thurs.
12   Michigan St   9-1  Purdue
13   Arkansas      8-2  at #21 Mississippi St
14   Oklahoma      8-2  at Baylor
15   Missouri      8-2  at Iowa State
 

Assuming the favorites win there might be zero change in the order in the USA and Harris polls. A lot depends on style points—particularly Boise State's game Friday night—but assuming no 83-20 games this week the polls should remain the same.

The projected BCS top 15 for November 21, 2010:

pre  new  Team         rec 
1     1.  Oregon       10-0 
2     2.  Auburn       11-0 
3     3t  TCU          11-0 
4     3t  Boise State  10-0 
5     5.  LSU          10-1 
7     6.  Wisconsin    10-1 
8     7.  Nebraska     10-1 
6     8.  Stanford     10-1 
9     9.  Ohio State   10-1 
10   10.  Oklahoma St  10-1 
12   11.  Michigan St  10-1 
11   12.  Alabama       9-2  
13   13.  Arkansas      9-2 
14   14.  Oklahoma      9-2 
15   15.  Missouri      9-2

So what will happen without any upsets? The biggest news will be Boise and TCU, who should be locked in a dead heat after this weekend. Idle TCU will slip a bit and Boise State will get a small boost in the computers, and assuming they are impressive Friday night they'll pull a bit more away in the polls. That may be enough to make the race for #3 too close to call going into Sunday. We keep TCU ahead here because they're more likely to hold the spot than relinquish it, as the bar is set pretty high for Boise to gain style points against Fresno.

It could go the other way for Boise, too; a sloppy performance or a close call would put them back at #4 in the polls and keep them there in the BCS. They have no margin for error. But if they perform as expected, they position themselves to eventually take over the #3 spot outright on the week of the 28th.

Positions 6 through 8 are up in the air, too. We're showing Wisconsin and Nebraska making just enough headway to supplant Stanford, but this one is probably system noise. The teams are pretty close and Stanford plays 5-6 Cal while Wisconsin and Nebraska's opponents are 7-3; Nebraska plays #19 Texas A&M,  so there is a chance the Cornhuskers could move up to #6. But unless Stanford's game is close and the other two dominate, the order could just as easily remain unchanged.

The only other position we see changing is Michigan State retaking #11 from Alabama. The Tide moved ahead of the idle Spartans last week with their win over Mississippi State; this week it's the Tide who are essentially idle (they beat I-AA Georgia State on Thursday) so Michigan State should inch past them, assuming they do well against Purdue.

Final scores and upsets will change all of this, so watch for updates which we'll have on Sunday morning.

Heisman Trophy Week 11: Cam Still #1 (until further notice)

Cam Newton continues to dominate the Heisman field, with looming allegations the only thing that can stand in his way. There are enough other strong candidates that if Auburn loses to Alabama or South Carolina (or both) someone else might be more deserving regardless. But with Auburn on a bye week Cam with retain his #1 ranking next week unless the hammer comes down.

Kellen Moore has a good chance to impress voters this week as he's the only one active of the top three. Of course that's a double-edged sword. LaMichael James didn't help his chances by tallying fewer than 100 yards last weekend, but he remains the nation's #1 rusher (per game and overall) and the only running back in the race.

After that were five other players, two of whom had to be cut. It was a close call for all.

This week's list, in rough order (click here for the most recent update):

• Cam Newton, Junior, QB Auburn (11-0) [added week six]
  135-198(68.2%) 2038yd 21TD 6int; 206rsh 1297yd (6.3av) 17TD 0fmb; 1TD rec
  
• Kellen Moore, Junior, QB Boise State (9-0) [added week two]
  174-242(71.9%) 2588yd 24TD 4int; 10rsh -23yd (-2.3 av) 0TD 1fmb
• LaMichael James, Soph, RB Oregon (10-0) [added week five]
  225rsh 1422yd (6.3av) 17TD 4fmb; 10rec 149yd 1TD
• Terrelle Pryor, Junior, QB Ohio State (9-1) [added week three]
  160-238(67.2%) 2136yd 22TD 8int; 93rsh 512yd (5.5av) 4TD 0fmb; 1TD rec
  
• Andrew Luck, Soph, QB Stanford (9-1) [added week eight]
  208-299(69.6%) 2511yd 22TD 7int; 46rsh 373yd (8.1av) 3TD 4fmb
• Colin Kaepernick, Senior, QB Nevada (9-1) [added week four]
  166-247(67.2%) 2161yd 17TD 6int;129rsh 946yd (7.3av) 15TD 3fmb
  
• Justin Blackmon, Soph, WR Oklahoma St (9-1) [added week seven]
  84rec 1430yd 16TD 0fmb; 4rsh 77yds (19av) 1TD; 1 block return TD
  
• Andy Dalton, Senior, QB TCU (11-0) [added week nine, removed week 11]
  185-279(66.3%) 2482yd 23TD 6int; 76rsh 415yd (5.5av) 5TD 1fmb
• Denard Robinson, Soph, QB Michigan (7-3) [added week 1, removed week 11]
  131-207 (63.3%) 1990yd 14TD 9int; 205rsh 1417yd (6.9av) 12TD 3fmb
  
• Mark Ingram, Junior, RB Alabama [added pre-season, removed week 10]

Colin Kaepernick and Justin Blackmon are the darkhorses in the race but we keep both of them. Kaepernick is most like Newton and Robinson, a quarterback for whom running is often their main threat. His passing numbers dwarf Robinson's and he's nearing 1,000 rushing yards; he also has a big game coming up against Boise State which could propel him into the national spotlight. We'll try to hold on to him until then, but he needs to do well next week. Last weekend he rushed for 156 yards and 2 TDs in a 35-34 win.

Justin Blackmon is the only receiver on board and he had another 100+ yard game. His only flaw was missing a game, but like LaMichael James does in rushing, he still leads the nation in total yards as well as yards per game, and like James is averaging over 150 yards per game. He needs to keep getting 100+ yards per game; one miss there and I'll let him go. To guarantee he stays next week he needs 200+ yards and several TDs, or another big rushing TD, the kind of things that allow receivers to compete for the Heisman.

Three quarterbacks on the list have similar stats: Stanford's Andrew Luck, Ohio State's Terrelle Pryor, and TCU's Andy Dalton. Andrew Luck had a good game but no TD passes, an interception and a fumble against Arizona State in a close call. Terrelle Pryor had fewer than 150 passing yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception in a good win over Penn State. Andy Dalton had four touchdown passes but a late interception cost them a touchdown and spurred San Diego State's near-comeback.

All three have led their teams to great records, with Dalton's the best but Luck's just as impressive if you consider they had to play Oregon. The three are very even but Dalton's had 11 games, has just New Mexico State left to play, and has the weekend off coming up, so there's not a lot of chance for him to add more to his Heisman résumé. The other two will fight it out and at least one if not both will be struck from the list next week. But Dalton unfortunately has to go now.

 Denard Robinson had a great first half of the season but it's been in decline since. He could finish strong and end up in New York after all (he plays ranked Wisconsin and Ohio State) but with his last game his TD to Turnover ratio went south. Also he's the only one on the last whose team has more than two losses, or even one loss actually. I wouldn't have thought it would happen this early, but I'm cutting him too.

Total-TD-to-turnover (TTT) table

Using the nine still-active candidates, here are each player's total TDs (rushing, passing, receiving, returning) vs. total turnovers (interceptions, fumbles) ranked by the formula TD/(TO+1)

Player            TDs  TOs    TTT 
Justin Blackmon   18    0     18.0
Cam Newton        39    6     5.57
Andy Dalton       29    6     4.14
Kellen Moore      24    5     4.00
LaMichael James   18    4     3.60
Colin Kaepernick  32    9     3.20
Terrelle Pryor    27    8     3.00
Andrew Luck       25   11     2.08
Denard Robinson   26   12     2.00
 

Like the last two weeks, Blackmon dominates due to being a receiver. Newton's numbers are pretty strong and Moore's would be equal to Dalton's if he'd played 11 games too.

Next week two of Pryor, Luck, Kaepernick, and Blackmon will be cut, unless Boise State is upset, in which case Moore might be gone. Newton and James are safe for their numbers and the fact that they don't play.

Week 12 Preview, Odds, and Predictions: Georgia State Looks for the Upset of the Century

Well last week's picks went pretty well: 8-2 straight up (picking the Notre Dame upsets as well as USC, missing the radical Cal pick as well as Florida-South Carolina) and going 7-3 against the spread. Not that we're advocating using these picks for anything but informational purposes and to show how computer models can aide in forecasting. This week could be awful; last week was pretty decent though.

This week we have winners such as Alabama vs. I-AA rookie Georgia State and only two intra-top 25 contests. It seems like college football takes a breather before the next two weekend's rivalry games. Still, there are some good contests for the discerning fan, with the majority of the ranked teams playing on the road leaving the door open to upsets.

Here are this week's top ten games and our picks:

Only Undefeated Team in Action: Fresno State (6-3) at #4 Boise State (9-0)

Vegas Line/Spread: Boise State by 30 1/2
Strength Power Rating Pick: Boise State 51-18 (99.89% chance of winning)
Yardage Analysis Score: Boise State 41-9
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Boise State 44-6
Comments: It's a slow Saturday for undefeated teams; Oregon, Auburn, and TCU all have the week off, and Boise State plays on Friday night. Though this would appear to be one of Boise State's tougher challenges this year, the Strength Power Rating suggests a 99.89% chance of winning by the game-comparison system. That is, out of all 6,561 comparisons of Boise's scoring offense and defense to Fresno's, the Bulldogs win just 7 times. Yikes. The stout Bronco rushing defense should hold Fresno to around 100 rushing yards. TCU got their "scare" last weekend, could it be Boise's turn Friday? They really can't afford it as the only BCS title game contender in action.
Final Prediction: Boise State 47, Fresno State 13 

Time to Step It Up: #13 Arkansas (8-2) vs. #19 Mississippi State (8-2)

Vegas Line/Spread: Arkansas by 3
Strength Power Rating Pick: Arkansas 26-21 (wins 63%)
Yardage Analysis Score: Arkansas 38-20
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Arkansas 34-21
Comments: Mississippi State has gotten a pretty good rep this year as a team that doesn't lose to bad teams; they fallen only to LSU, Auburn, and Alabama, teams that have a combined 3 losses (two of which came from each other). But they haven't beaten anybody noteworthy other than Florida, who now has four losses. Now they have to step it up and get an impressive win or fall into a bowl that nobody cares about. Arkansas has a slim chance of going to a BCS bowl and they're playing really good football lately. Ryan Mallet should throw for around 350 yards and lead the Razorbacks to the win.
Final Prediction: Arkansas 30, Mississippi State 21

Remember the Big 12?  #7 Nebraska (9-1) at #16 Texas A&M (7-3)

Vegas Line/Spread: Nebraska by 2 1/2
Strength Power Rating Pick: Texas A&M 27-24 (55%)
Yardage Analysis Score: Texas A&M 27-24
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Nebraska 26-24
Comments: Texas A&M is a team that hits a "sweet spot" in our subjective rankings, losing only to teams above them and beating those below. A win over Nebraska would upset this equation, as the Cornhuskers beat Oklahoma State who beat the Aggies. So I was a little surprised to find that both the Strength Power Rating and the Yardage Analyzer picked them to win, 27-24 in both cases. Adding in turnovers—a Nebraska strength—tilts the 2nd projection to the Corhuskers by a point or two, but those stats include a 2-interception tally for Nebraska which will be harder to come by with Ryan Tannehill playing quarterback. Going into this analysis I expected to pick Nebraska but I'm going with the Aggies; it will mess up the top 25's logic but then again, that always happens.
Final Prediction:  Texas A&M 27, Nebraska 24

How Good is Cal at Home? Part II: #6 Stanford (9-1) at California (5-5)

Vegas Line/Spread: Stanford by 6 1/2
Strength Power Rating Pick: Stanford 30-22 (64%)
Yardage Analysis Score: Stanford 24-14
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Stanford 24-13
Comments: Cal proved last week that they are indeed one of the best teams in the country when they play at home—2nd perhaps only to Oregon. But Stanford is one of the best teams in the country, home or road. Are they at risk playing in Berkeley? Cal's "over-and-above" home field advantage is nearly 18 points (they are about 21 points better at home than on a neutral field). By this measure they should defeat the Cardinal with ease. But last week's Oregon game showed the deficiencies of their offense under Brock Mansion. The defense played an astounding game but the offense was clearly not up to where it was with Kevin Riley at quarterback. Do the Bears have it in them to fight it out with Stanford one week after Oregon? Like last week, where we said the realistic result is that Cal comes up just short...the realisitic result is that Cal comes up just short.
Final Prediction: Stanford 21, California 17

Rose Bowl Hunt - Will the Badgers Score 84?  #9 Wisconsin (9-1) at Michigan (7-3)

Vegas Line/Spread: Wisconsin by 4
Strength Power Rating Pick: Wisconsin 45-36 (65%)
Yardage Analysis Score: Michigan 45, Wisconsin 42
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Wisconsin 45, Michigan 42
Comments: Wisconsin proved that it can score points by racking up 83 against Indiana, their second 70+ point output of the season. Michigan gives up a lot of points, too, so the Badgers could have another field day in Ann Arbor. The thing is that the Wolverines can keep up; they topped Illinois 67-65 in triple overtime and scored 65 on Bowling Green in regulation. Denard Robinson was quiet last week but if he has a big game it will be a shootout. Wisconsin will be without John Clay again but it didn't seem to hurt last week. The Wolverines are capable of pulling off the upset here and the Badgers might be ripe after last week's celebration, but Wisconsin is fighting to hold onto a Rose Bowl berth and should outlast UM despite scoring only about half of last week's output.
Final Prediction: Wisconsin 45, Michigan 40

Rose Bowl Hunt part II: #11 Ohio State (9-1) vs. Iowa (7-3)

Vegas Line/Spread: Ohio State by 3
Strength Power Rating Pick: Ohio State 27-21 (66%)
Yardage Analysis Score: Ohio State 24-14
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Ohio State 23-15
Comments: Unlike the above Big Ten game, this one should come down to defense. Iowa is as bad at beating Ohio State as they are at beating Northwestern, and the Buckeyes are a better team. The Hawkeyes' running game has been hobbled and they may struggle to get 100 yards against Ohio State, who will probably outgain them slightly in each area on their way to a win. If Iowa can intercept Terrelle Pryor multiple times and avoid turnovers themselves things might be different.
Final Prediction: Ohio State 24, Iowa 18

ACC Coastal Division Championship Game: #21 Virginia Tech (8-2) vs. Miami (7-3)

Vegas Line/Spread: Virginia Tech by 2 1/2
Strength Power Rating Pick: Miami 24-23 (53%)
Yardage Analysis Score: Miami 35-24
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Miami 31-27
Comments: This isn't really the Coastal championship game, unless Virginia Tech wins in which case they are the Coastal champs. Miami would have to depend on Virginia upsetting Virginia Tech in order to make the ACC title game. That said, this is the key game remaining. Somewhat surprisingly, with home field advantage the Canes are favored by both projections, though expected turnovers greatly narrow Miami's margin in the yardage comparison. Miami's been doing pretty well with quarterback Stephen Morris and he'll be the starter again. I don't think it will make any difference whether Miami wins this game or not in terms of the ACC race, but Virginia Tech might be thinking the same thing, that they need to win one of the next two. That attitude could make a difference.
Final Prediction: Miami 27, Virginia Tech 24

ACC Atlantic Division Championship Game: Florida State (7-3) at Maryland (7-3)

Vegas Line/Spread: FSU by 4
Strength Power Rating Pick: FSU 30-25 (58%)
Yardage Analysis Score: FSU 31-17
Yardage + Turnovers Score: FSU 28-20
Comments: Like the above game, this isn't strictly the Atlantic division title game, but it's close. The winner of this game has an excellent chance of going to the ACC title game. Maryland controls their own destiny and needs to beat FSU and N.C. State, while FSU has to win this game and hope N.C. State loses to either North Carolina or Maryland, a pretty good bet. The Seminoles should outgain the Terrapins comfortably in both passing and rushing but FSU can't count on gaining turnovers while Maryland should gain about two. Still, Florida State appears to be on their way to the ACC title game.
Final Prediction: Florida State 29, Maryland 23

Mountain West Runner-up: #20 Utah (8-2) vs. San Diego State (7-3)

Vegas Line/Spread: Utah by 2 1/2
Strength Power Rating Pick: Utah 34-27 (61%)
Yardage Analysis Score: Utah 30-23
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Utah 30-24
Comments: People are going to be pretty down on Utah after two blowout losses, and figure that the Aztecs played TCU a whole lot closer, so shouldn't they beat the Utes? But that's probably wrong. Unless the Utes have been totally ruined they should win this game, and their offense is due for an explosion after scoring just 10 points in two games. This game completes the classic round robin conundrum: Team A kills Team B, who kills Team C. Then Team A plays Team C and wins by just a few points. In this case Team A is TCU, B is Utah and C is SDSU. The order of games is just shifted around a bit. That said, Utah could really use a bye weekend right now; they lost to Notre Dame a lot worse than expected and San Diego could smell blood. I just think it's rebound time, and they'll get a hard-fought win.
Final Prediction:  Utah 34, San Diego State 23

 

Scheduling Boondoggle of the Decade: Georgia State (6-4) at #12 Alabama (8-2)

Vegas Line/Spread: No line
Strength Power Rating Pick: Alabama 53-0 (99.97%)
Yardage Analysis Score: n/a
Yardage + Turnovers Score: n/a
Comments: Given the records this doesn't look like such a bad idea. Even knowing Georgia State is an FCS (I-AA) team doesn't make this game any different from the 100 or so FBS vs. FCS games scheduled each year. What makes it so wrong is that this is Georgia State's first year ever playing football. And they are taking on the defending national champion. They have ex-Alabama coach Bill Curry and boast several I-A transfers who wanted to play a bigger role. But this is a joke. Not as big of a joke as it looked like at the beginning of the season—the Panthers padded their schedule with even lower division schools to get some wins, and played some good teams pretty close—but it's still a joke. Of all offense-defense cross-comparisons, Georgia State wins three times in 10,000.
Final Prediction: Alabama 56, Georgia State 3

SportsRatings Top 25 Week 11: Top 14 teams unchanged

Welcome to the SportsRatings College Football Top 25 for the week ending November 13, 2010. This is a subjective ranking, not a computer power rating. It does attempt to use several rules, some of which include honoring head-to-head results whenever possible, and giving more consideration to teams with wins over other top 25 teams.

No change in the top five, the top ten, even the top 14. But as teams build their résumés some moves are inevitable in the future. 

Oregon had a close call against Cal but remains #1; Auburn will take over the top spot if they can beat Alabama in two weeks, but with USC giving the Ducks a 2nd top 25 win they hold on. #3 TCU also had a close call but it was against a ranked San Diego State team, so they hold off Boise State. The Broncos will have a stronger résumé by the end of the regular season most likely.

The one-loss teams are in the same pack as before. #5 LSU and #6 Stanford each have loss to an undefeated team and two strong wins. #7 Nebraska and #8 Michigan State now each have two top 25 wins, and the Cornhuskers' loss to Texas is looking worse by the week. #9 Wisconsin and #10 Oklahoma State lost to Michigan State and Nebraska respectively and each has a top 25 win.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week 11 2010 (thru 11/13/2010)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Oregon	10-0	wStanford 52-31, @USC 53-32
2	2	Auburn	11-0	wLSU 24-17, SCar 35-27, Ark 65-43, @MissSt 17-14
3	3	TCU	11-0	[email protected] 47-7, SDSU 40-35
4	4	Boise State	9-0	[email protected] 33-30
5	5	LSU	9-1	[email protected] 24-17; wAlabama 24-21, MissSt 29-7
6	6	Stanford	9-1	[email protected] 52-31; wArizona 42-17, USC 37-35
7	7	Nebraska	9-1	L Texas 20-13; wMizz 31-17, @OKst 51-41
8	8	Michigan St	9-1	[email protected] 37-6; wWisconsin 34-24, @Nwest 35-27
9	9	Wisconsin	9-1	[email protected] 34-24; wOSU 31-18, @Iowa 31-30
10	10	Oklahoma St	9-1	L Nebraska 51-41; wTexAM 38-35
11	11	Ohio State	9-1	[email protected] 31-18
12	12	Alabama	8-2	[email protected] 35-21, @LSU 24-21; [email protected] 24-20, MissSt 30-10
13	13	Arkansas	8-2	[email protected] 65-43, Bama 24-20; [email protected] 41-20, =TexAM 21-14
14	14	Missouri	8-2	[email protected] 24-17, @Neb 31-17; wOK 36-27, TexAM 30-9, SDSU 27-24
20	15	Nevada	8-1	[email protected] 27-21
22	16	Texas A&M	7-3	L Mizzou 30-9, =Ark 21-14, @OKst 38-35; wOK 33-19
17	17	Oklahoma	8-2	[email protected] 36-27, @TexAM 33-19
23	18	South Carolina	7-3	[email protected] 31-28, @Aub 35-27, Ark 41-20; wBama 35-21
16	19	Mississippi St	7-3	[email protected] 29-7, Aub 17-14, @Bama 30-10
15	20	Utah	8-2	[email protected] 28-3, TCU 47-7
21	21	Virginia Tech	8-2	L JMadison 21-16, Boise 33-30
--	22	USC	7-3	L Wash 32-31, @Stan 37-35, Ore 53-32; [email protected] 24-21
18	23	Arizona	7-3	L OreSt 29-27, USC 24-21, @Stan 42-17; wIA 34-27
25	24	Northern Illinois	8-2	[email protected] 27-10, @Illinois 28-22; wTemple 31-17
--	25t	Northwestern	7-3	L Pur 20-17, @PSU 35-21, MSU 35-27; wIA 21-17
--	25t	Temple	8-2	[email protected] 22-13, @NoILL 31-17
		out:
19	--	Iowa	7-3	[email protected],@Ariz 34-27, Wisc 31-30; wMichSt 37-6
24	--	San Diego State	7-3	[email protected] 24-21, @Missouri 27-24, @TCU 40-35

Ohio State still has no top 25 wins and that could be the case at the end of the regular season. Of the Big Ten teams in the top 25, the Buckeyes lost to Wisconsin and don't play Michigan State or Northwestern. Beating Iowa and Michigan would likely keep those teams out of the rankings, and Miami fell out a few weeks ago. After the bowl games, however, it could be very different: Miami, Iowa, Michigan, and Penn State each might be ranked, and Ohio is 8-3 and has a chance to make it in, too. Add a win over their bowl opponent and the Buckeyes could have as many as six top 25 wins come January.

Alabama, Arkansas, and Missouri are the top 2-loss teams, each having two top 25 wins. 1-loss Nevada moves up to #15, while Texas A&M jumps to #16; the Aggies have lost to three teams in the top 14 and beat #17 Oklahoma, so it makes sense that they fit in a slot just above the Sooners.

South Carolina regains some lost ground after beating Florida, perching at #18 just ahead of #19 Mississippi State who lost to Alabama. Utah drops to #20 but their loss to Notre Dame still isn't as bad as #21 Virginia Tech's home loss to James Madison.

The bottom of the rankings is crowded this week; #23 Arizona lost to USC, who enters at #22. Northwestern bumped off Iowa and joins at #25. Northern Illinois moves up a spot and welcomes fellow MAC team Temple in at #25 (tied with Northwestern) meaning all the teams with two or fewer losses are represented. Temple's stay will be short as they already lost Tuesday night to Ohio.

Both Iowa and San Diego State could have remained in the top 25; Iowa has lost only to top 25 teams and holds a win over Michigan State, while SDSU has three close losses and only fell to TCU by 5. Each will have a chance to re-enter next week as the Hawkeyes play #11 Ohio State while the Aztecs host faltering #15 Utah.

2010 Projected Final BCS Standings (post week 11): TCU's fate uncertain again

This year we are projecting the Final (pre-bowl) BCS Standings each week, based on our pre-season standings and using the projected winner from each game. Every week these projections will be updated using the actual results for that week. For the most recent projection click here.

Here is the projection using our pre-season prognostications combined with results through week 11 (11/13/2010):

2010 Projected Final BCS Rankings  - post-week 11
lw	#	Team	record	BCS Bowl	Current BCS#	If they win out
1	1	Oregon	12-0	Title Game	1	1
2	2	Boise St	12-0	Title Game	4	2
3	3	Auburn	12-1	Sugar	2	2
4	4	TCU	12-0	Fiesta/Orange?	3	4
6	5	Alabama	10-2	Orange	11	5
7	6	Stanford	11-1	Rose	6	6
8	7	Wisconsin	11-1	Rose	7	7
13	8	Oklahoma	11-2	Fiesta	14	8
9	9	Ohio State	11-1	Sugar	9	9
5	10	Nebraska	11-2		8	5
10	11	Arkansas	10-2		13	11
12	12	Missouri	10-2		15	12
11	13	LSU	10-2		5	5
14	14	Virginia Tech	11-2	Orange	16	14
19	15	Oklahoma St	10-2		10	4
15	16	Michigan St	10-2		12	10
16	17	Iowa	8-4		20	16
18	18	Utah	10-2		23	18
17	19	Arizona	8-4		22	16
21	20	Miami FL	8-4		24	17
22	21	North Carolina	8-4		--	21
20	22	Florida	8-4		--	22
--	23	Nevada	10-3		18	12
23	24	Penn State	8-4		--	24
--	25	Hawaii	10-3		--	25

(#24 UCF and #25 Miss. State fell out)

Using this projection, we get the following probable bowl pairings (favorites in green):

BCS Championship Game:	Oregon vs. Boise State
Rose Bowl:	Wisconsin vs. Stanford
Sugar Bowl:	Auburn vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl:	Virginia Tech vs. Alabama
Fiesta Bowl:	Oklahoma vs. Pittsburgh (BCS #29)

This week's notes:

• Will an undefeated TCU make it to a BCS bowl or not?

One week after everyone else had ushered them into the BCS title game (assuming an Auburn loss to Alabama), TCU is in an uncertain state and we don't have them in a BCS bowl under most conditions. Unlike most, we were projecting the Utah loss to Notre Dame already and knew that TCU's computer ranking would take a hit, but we didn't forsee the Notre Dame game being so one-sided, nor TCU having a close call with San Diego State. Now Boise has passed TCU in the polls and with the computers it's inevitable, too, meaning that the Broncos will get the title shot if Auburn falters. Indeed, Auburn might remain ahead of TCU even if they lose. Imagine a year-end scenario such as this:

Polls             Computer composite
1. Oregon         1. Oregon
2. Boise State    2. Auburn
3. TCU            3. Boise State
4. Auburn         4. Alabama
5. Wisconsin      5. TCU

Which is likely if Alabama beats Auburn. The Tigers would likely remain the top 1-loss team in the polls while remaining very strong with the computers after an SEC title game win. Alabama could pass TCU in the computers after beating the Tigers, who stay ahead of the Horned Frogs overall. A wild card is the Cam Newton investigation, which could turn voters off of the Tigers and drop them further in the polls if they lose.

But everyone know that both Boise and TCU have no room for error. If the Broncos falter at all, TCU can regain their position in the polls which is worth twice as much as the computer rankings. Boise State has three games left; assuming TCU dominates hopeless New Mexico and Boise wins all three, it comes down to Boise's style points. The wins will put them ahead of TCU with the computers, but Boise has three chances to slip up and put more doubt in voters' minds.

• Rose Bowl is pretty well set if Auburn loses

As long as Alabama beats Auburn, the Rose Bowl is pretty well determined: Wisconsin vs. Stanford. The Badgers and Cardinal look like they'll hold their current BCS positions. Since we again switched favorites (back to Oklahoma) in the Big Twelve title game, this means Nebraska won't jump either team. Wisconsin's monster win over Indiana in some ways legitimized them as a highly-ranked team among voters, and Stanford's big wins over Washington and Arizona did the same a few weeks ago. So when the Rose Bowl gets around to choosing a replacement for Oregon, it won't go "off the board" and take TCU, which was one of the possibilities explored last week when TCU was flying high.

Wisconsin should remain well ahead of Ohio State even as the Buckeyes win out against Iowa and Michigan. The Iowa win lost a bit of luster after the Hawkeyes fell to Northwestern. Even if it hadn't, the pollsters will keep the Badgers ahead of OSU in the polls and they'll stay ahead in the computers.

Michigan State, who beat Wisconsin, is projected to be upset by Penn State in their final game, making the Badgers the automatic choice, but if the Spartans win out there is a three-way tie that is broken by the BCS ranking. Even if it comes down to the BCS standings Wisconsin will get the nod.

• Either Alabama or TCU misses a BCS bowl

Last week we noted that either TCU, Alabama, or Stanford would be left out of a BCS bowl, and after the weekend it's more likely that it's TCU. With Nebraska "out of the way" for now, Alabama could finish in the top five. They can't be picked for the Sugar Bowl (which will have Auburn) but the Orange Bowl would love to have them, and the "public pressure" to fix things so TCU could get in the Fiesta Bowl probably won't be too great anymore.

If the Orange takes Alabama, the Fiesta is left with Pitt (or whoever from the Big East). The only way the "higher ups" might get involves is if Virginia Tech loses a 3rd (or 4th) game and still wins the ACC, in which case pitting them against an 8-4 Pitt might preserve the luster of the other bowl games better. In that scenario, TCU might play Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.

Another way Alabama loses out is if LSU beats Arkansas and finishes with 1 loss. The Tigers would be a clear pick for the Orange in that case, ahead of the Tide whom they beat. If that happens, both Alabama and TCU are left out. The weekend's winner, therefore, is Stanford, who held their BCS position despite a narrow win.

• Other teams that could make a move

Nebraska's tepid win over Kansas, as well as Texas' continued death spiral, has hurt the 'Huskers chances for a big move if they win out. They would still make big gains by winning out and winning the Big Twelve title game, but not the extent of threatening to pass TCU or Boise. There isn't an impressive foe for them to beat, either, as they already beat Oklahoma State and Oklahoma has two losses. More than anything, though, it's the loss to Texas at home that looks really bad compared to other teams' more excuseable defeats.

Speaking of Oklahoma State, they could make a decent run by beating both Oklahoma and Nebraska while winning the Big Twelve, a result that would put them at or near the top of the computer rankings at 12-1. But their advancement in the polls would be limited by the undefeated (and some 1-loss) teams in front of them. The Fiesta Bowl is their highest realistic goal.

Likewise, LSU's best hope is for an at-large BCS bowl, since they can't make the Sugar Bowl. At 1 loss, they'd be picked somewhere.

• Bottom of the charts

Florida's loss to South Carolina was an upset, but it didn't knock the Gators down too far. Mostly because it didn't add a loss to their projected record. In net terms, they'll still have four losses: one added due to losing to South Carolina, but one taken away due to not being in the SEC title game. This is also the reason South Carolina doesn't reappear on the list, as they gained a win but their projected losses remains the same, and if they lose to Clemson and Auburn they won't be in the top 25 at 8-5. If they beat the Tigers, of course, they're in the Sugar Bowl, which would really turn things upside-down.

Nevada's projected record finally gets good enough for them to appear on the year-end projection. We still have them losing to Boise and perhaps Louisiana Tech in an upset, still good enough to hold on at #23. Win out and they rise to an unremarkable #12, as few teams in the top dozen are expected to lose. They're the ultimate spoiler at this point, and can dash Boise State's hopes even with a tough-fought game.

Hawaii, who beat Nevada, should finish the year 10-3 as they have just three terrible teams left, and this should be good enough for them to appear in the polls and place 25th in the BCS rankings. Many BCS conference teams will be taking their 4th or 5th loss at this time and clearing the way for the Warriors. One of those teams is Florida State, currently #25 in the BCS. They are favored to win the ACC Coastal division but may lose to Florida and Virginia Tech which would knock them out as well.

==================================================================

BCS Selection Rules for 2010-11
(simplified; full detail here):

• #1 and #2 teams go into BCS Championship game;

then, if still available:

• Rose Bowl gets Big 10, Pac 10 champs*
• Sugar Bowl gets SEC champ
• Orange Bowl gets ACC champ
• Fiesta Bowl gets Big 12 champ

After these conference winners have been placed, selections will be made in the following order:

• BCS #1 team is replaced*
• BCS #2 team is replaced*
• Sugar Bowl picks its 2nd team
• Orange Bowl picks its 2nd team
• Fiesta Bowl picks its 2nd team

*special Rose Bowl note: In replacing a Big Ten or Pac-10 team that makes the BCS title game, the Rose Bowl will select an automatic non-BCS qualifier.

Automatic qualifiers: All of the BCS conference champs must be selected, along with Notre Dame if in the top 8, any one other non-BCS-conference champ if in the top 12 (or top 16 if ranked ahead of a BCS conference champ), and in most cases either the #3 or #4 team in the BCS rankings (if they are BCS-conference teams).

Beyond the automatic qualifiers, the remaining teams are selected "at-large". At-large teams must be selected from those in the top 14.

BCS Projections for Sunday, November 14: Updated Projections and Rankings

Everyone wants to know the BCS Standings right now!—before the games have been played, before the polls have been released—instead of just waiting a few days/hours until Sunday evening. So in addition to our projections of the Final BCS Standings, we'll also be predicting the results for the coming Sunday. Check here for the most recent updates.

Things went mostly as expected through the top 15, with a few upsets in the lower ranks that should allow the Big Twelve's Oklahoma and Missouri back in the top 15 as Iowa and Utah lost. Other than that, there were a few matters of degree, namely Wisconsin's 83 point game and TCU giving up 35 points that could affect the top 10.

Here are the current BCS standings (from November 7, 2010) and this weekend's results:

rnk  Team          rec  11/13 opponent
1    Oregon        9-0  beat California 15-13
2    Auburn       10-0  beat Georgia 49-31 
3    TCU          10-0  beat San Diego St 40-35 
4    Boise State   8-0  beat Idaho 52-14 
5    LSU           8-1  beat LA-Monroe 51-0 
6    Stanford      8-1  beat Arizona St 17-13
7    Wisconsin     8-1  beat Indiana 83-20
8    Nebraska      8-1  beat Kansas 20-3
9    Ohio State    8-1  beat Penn State 38-14
10   Oklahoma St   8-1  beat Texas 33-16
11   Michigan St   9-1  (idle) 
12   Alabama       7-2  beat Mississippi St 30-10 
13   Iowa          7-2  lost at Northwestern 21-17
14   Utah          8-1  lost at Notre Dame 28-3
15   Arkansas      7-2  beat UTEP 58-21
 

Other than the obvious—Iowa and Utah dropping out of the top 15—there isn't necessarily any change, as we predicted on Friday. Without upsets in the top ten, things should remain much as they were.

The projected BCS top 15 for November 14, 2010:

pre  proj  true Team           rec   proj ave   actual
1     1.    1.  Oregon        10-0    .9777      .9753
2     2.    2.  Auburn        11-0    .9684      .9687
3     3.    3.  TCU           11-0    .8993      .8966
4     4.    4.  Boise St.      9-0    .8658      .8634
5     5.    5.  LSU            9-1    .8269      .8243
6     6.    6.  Stanford       9-1    .7423      .7553
7     7.    7.  Wisconsin      9-1    .7341      .7258
8     8.    8.  Nebraska       9-1    .7294      .7203
9     9.    9.  Ohio St.       9-1    .6641      .6674
10   10.   10.  Oklahoma St.   9-1    .6577      .6601
12   12.   11.  Alabama        8-2    .6124      .6151
11   11.   12.  Michigan St.   9-1    .6186      .6066
 15   13.   13.  Arkansas       8-2    .5024      .5133
16   14.   14.  Oklahoma       8-2    .4765      .4728
17   15.   15.  Missouri       8-2    .4528      .4563
 

Pre-coaches poll analysis

Oregon's close call at Cal will cause them to lose some first place votes, which may go to Auburn but the Tigers should stay #2 because A) Oregon's computer rating is moving up, probably to a solid #2, and B) voters may be reluctant to put Auburn #1 due to the recent Cam Newton scandal. Either way, Oregon should remain #1, Auburn #2.

TCU is hit by a double whammy. They could lose some votes to Boise State for their close call, and in the computers they are hit by Utah's loss to Notre Dame as well as Oregon State's loss to Washington State, which should drop them from their computer composite #2 to 3rd or even 4th behind LSU. We warned everyone last week that TCU's position ahead of Boise State—particularly in the computers—was not secure, and this weekend was the first step toward the Broncos overtaking them. For now, they will remain #3 in the BCS even if Boise edges past them in the polls, which is possible but not predicted.

Wisconsin's huge win over Indiana will help them garner votes in the polls even as they remain #5 in both. It won't help their computer rankings any as the computers see their 83-20 win just the same as a 23-20 win. The Badgers should gain a spot overall to #6; meanwhile Nebraska might also edge past Stanford, but this is pretty speculative as the Cardinal probably will move up rather than down in the computer rankings, though we're showing the opposite right now.

We originally saw Alabama passing idle Michigan State but now it seems the Spartans will hold down the #11 spot, while Arkansas moves up to #13 and Oklahoma and Missouri fill the gaps left by Iowa and Utah.

Post-coaches poll analysis

We speculated Friday there'd be little change, and now it looks like there will be very little at all. The "noise" movements in the top ten probably won't even happen. Though Wisconsin gained some poll support, being #5 behind four undefeated teams doesn't allow much upward movement so they don't gain enough to pass Stanford, who may see a drop in their score but not enough to fall past Nebraska. So the top ten should remain the same as last week.

TCU did fall past Boise State in the coaches' poll, and might do so in the Harris poll as well. But it's still very close and not enough to allow the Broncos to overtake them; despite a drop in their computer rankings, Boise won't gain much in that department this week.

Alabama will come very close to overtaking Michigan State, which would be the highest position change. It may or may not happen; it depends on the whim of the computers, and right now tie goes to the runner with the Spartans holding their spot. A comfortable margin separates the Tide from Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri.

Post-announcement analysis

Well Alabama did pass Michigan State after all. The Spartans dropped a bit in the computers on their idle week and that's all it took. Other than that, nothing much happened of note.

Week 11 Power Ratings: One game can still make a difference

There weren't too many upsets but there were some crazy scores last week. Early in the season when few games have been played, score-margin-based power ratings can change radically and these changes are muted as the weeks go by. But even in the 11th week of action there can be dramatic changes.

Here's a comparison of last weeks All-Division Strength Power Rating to this week's:

11/6 13th  Team                   rec  Rating:11/6   11/13   Change
 1    1. Oregon                  10-0        79.46   78.02   -1.44
 2    2. Boise St                 9-0        72.57   71.28   -1.29 
 4    3. Stanford                 9-1        69.20   68.59   -0.61 
 3    4. TCU                     11-0        71.37   67.05   -4.32 
 5    5. Alabama                  8-2        64.17   64.56    0.39 
 6    6. Ohio State               9-1        63.79   63.86    0.07 
10    7. Auburn                  11-0        59.67   60.35    0.68 
11    8. Southern Cal             7-3        59.37   59.94    0.57 
 7    9. Oklahoma St              9-1        60.53   59.54   -0.99 
15   10. Oklahoma                 8-2        58.04   58.81    0.77 
20   11. California               5-5        56.63   57.82    1.19 
14   12. Missouri                 8-2        58.17   57.50   -0.67 
16   13. Arkansas                 8-2        57.38   57.38    0.00 
19   14. Texas A&M                7-3        56.66   57.14    0.48 
13   15. Arizona                  7-3        58.62   57.09   -1.53 
 8   16. Nebraska                 9-1        60.44   57.07   -3.37 
21   17. Arizona St               4-6        56.62   56.89    0.27 
27   18. Wisconsin                9-1        52.85   56.78    3.93 
24   19. LSU                      9-1        54.67   56.58    1.91 
17   20. Nevada                   9-1        57.33   55.81   -1.52 
30   21. South Carolina           7-3        52.46   55.70    3.24 
26   22. Virginia Tech            8-2        53.73   54.78    1.05 
18   23. Iowa                     7-3        57.30   54.57   -2.73 
 9   24. Utah                     8-2        59.89   54.55   -5.34 
22   25. Florida                  6-4        56.61   54.42   -2.19 

In week 11 we see some big moves in ranking: California, Wisconsin, and South Carolina each jumped 9 spots, while Nebraska was down 8. Texas A&M and LSU rose 5 spots while Iowa was down 5. And two teams had the biggest moves: Utah fell 15 spots from #9 to #24, while Oregon State fell from #12 to #27.

The scores that fueled these moves were:

• Oregon 15, California 13: By sticking to within two points of Oregon when they were a huge underdog, Cal jumped from #20 to #11 despite the loss and their 5-5 record. Their defense is now the #4 rated defense among 730 teams for holding the Ducks to two touchdowns. Cal gained 1.19 rating points while the Ducks lost 1.44 but held onto the #1 spot by a wide margin.
• Wisconsin 83, Indiana 20: In a rating based purely on score margin (and not constrained) this is a good way to make a jump. The Badgers gained 3.93 points when all was said and done.
• South Carolina 36, Florida 14: Beating the Gators by 22 on the road lifted the Gamecocks by 3.24 points, and dumped the Gators by 2.19.
• Nebraska 20, Kansas 3: With the Jayhawks ranked #134, the Cornhuskers should have beat them by at least 30 points at home. They lost 3.37 points from last week, but some of that was due to the poor play of their previous opponents, such as Iowa State who lost to Colorado 34-14.
• Texas A&M 42, Baylor 30: This score isn't far out of line with expectations, and the Aggies gained just 0.48 points. They moved up 5 spots mostly due to losses by Utah, Iowa, and Oregon State.
• LSU 51, LA Monroe 0: A shutout never hurts, even a shutout of a weak foe. The Tigers' average rating went up 1.91 points. Wins over weak opponents can cut both ways, of course, if the margin isn't as big as expected but in this case LSU delivered.
• Northwestern 21, Iowa 17: The Hawkeyes lost 2.73 points for losing to the Wildcats, a week after losing points for sneaking past Indiana.
• Notre Dame 28, Utah 3: The Utes only fell from #5 to #9 after getting blasted by TCU by 40, but getting beat by 25 by Notre Dame is much worse. The Utes lost 5.34 points, a huge total for this late in the season. It had the effect of pulling down TCU, too.
• Washington State 31, Oregon State 14: Losing to Washington State will drag almost any I-A team's rating down. The Beavers were ranked very high for a 4-4 team, as they were competitive with TCU and Boise State and beat Arizona. This loss dragged all three of those teams down a bit, too.

Loser of the week: TCU. A week after crushing Utah and positioning themselves as a possible BCS title contender, the Horned Frogs allowed San Diego State to make their contest uncomfortably close, with TCU winning 40-35 after leading 37-14. Making matters worse, Utah's loss to Notre Dame, and Oregon State's loss to Washington State were so radically out of step with the ratings that they helped pull down TCU's rating, too, to the tune of -4.32 points, dropping the Horned Frogs to #4 behind Stanford.

The Oregon State debacle also hurt #2 Boise State, who lost 1.29 points despite crushing rival Idaho 52-14 on Friday.

Cool Customer of the Week: Arkansas. The Razorbacks moved up to #13 but that was completely due to four teams dropping below them and one passing them. Their rating was unchanged after their 58-21 win over UTEP.

We Picked It: Notre Dame beats Utah, 28-3, hurting TCU in the process

Our big upset pick for this week came true, with Notre Dame beating Utah 28-3 in South Bend. The score was a lot more one-sided than we expected, though, meaning it will be even worse for TCU.

No matter what, Utah's loss hurts the Horned Frogs with the computers and pollsters; it was a lot like Virginia Tech losing to James Madison the week after Boise State beat them. The margin of victory in this case makes it worse, with the pollsters perhaps re-evaluating TCU's 47-7 pasting of Utah last week. Already there were many who discounted Utah as having been exposed; there will be many more, now.

Which is a shame since Utah's loss to Notre Dame was almost completely due to their mindset after TCU dismantled them. On a normal day they would have beaten Notre Dame the way they beat teams of similar quality (they beat Pittsburgh in overtime, and Air Force 28-23). But the team was devastated by the one-sided loss to the Horned Frogs and they weren't ready to play a week later, and certainly not ready to play in a big-time atmosphere.

On the other hand, Notre Dame was ripe for a big win and they got it. After the tragedy that struck when a student videographer was killed, the Irish played poorly and lost to Tulsa. They had a week off and when emotions had settled the team knew they needed a big win for the university. Notre Dame has gotten a bad rap this year as they really haven't played terrible football in most games, losing close games to Michigan and Michigan State, and the 1-point game to Tulsa; if those games had gone the other way, Notre Dame would have entered this game 7-2 and still hopeful of a BCS bowl bid.

Not that they're that good, either. Navy showed how poor the Irish can play, and even in winning (Purdue, for example) they haven't been consistent. A win against Army will make the Irish bowl-eligible, then they play at USC which will be as hard as usual, so they'll likely end up 6-6. But this was expected to be a rebuilding year after losing Claussen and Tate, and Kelly appears to have the team pointed in the right direction for next year.

BCS Projections for Sunday, November 14: Any Change This Weekend?

Everyone wants to know the BCS Standings right now!—before the games have been played, before the polls have been released—instead of just waiting a few days/hours until Sunday evening. So in addition to our projections of the Final BCS Standings, we'll also be predicting the results for the coming Sunday. Check here for the most recent updates.

This weekend there are no games between the top 15 in the BCS; the closest is #12 Alabama, who hosts #19 Mississippi State. Within the top 25, Florida and South Carolina (#22 and #23) play for an SEC title berth while #24 Kansas State travels to #17 Missouri. But those games don't matter much unless there are some upsets, and for forecasting the BCS rankings we don't deal in upsets. So while I think this weekend is going to hold a number of surprises, for this projection we're assuming that every team currently in the top 15 wins.

Here are the current BCS standings (from November 7, 2010) and this weekend's schedule:

rnk  Team          rec  11/13 opponent
1    Oregon        9-0  at California
2    Auburn       10-0  Georgia 
3    TCU          10-0  San Diego St 
4    Boise State   8-0  at Idaho (Fri) 
5    LSU           8-1  LA-Monroe 
6    Stanford      8-1  at Arizona St
7    Wisconsin     8-1  Indiana
8    Nebraska      8-1  Kansas
9    Ohio State    8-1  Penn State
10   Oklahoma St   8-1  at Texas
11   Michigan St   9-1  (idle) 
12   Alabama       7-2  #19 Mississippi St 
13   Iowa          7-2  at Northwestern
14   Utah          8-1  at Notre Dame
15   Arkansas      7-2  UTEP

For the polls, there isn't much reason to assume much movement at all; every team in the top 15 in the BCS is in the top 15 in the USA and Harris polls, just in a somewhat different order. The computer rankings will change, however, and if there are no upsets that will be the main reason for any re-ordering we see by Sunday.

The projected BCS top 15 for November 14, 2010:

pre  new  Team          rec 
1     1.  Oregon        10-0 
2     2.  Auburn        11-0 
3     3.  TCU           11-0 
4     4.  Boise State    9-0 
5     5.  LSU            9-1 
7     6.  Wisconsin      9-1 
6     7.  Stanford       9-1 
8     8.  Nebraska       9-1 
9     9.  Ohio State     9-1 
10   10.  Oklahoma St    9-1 
12   11.  Alabama        8-2 
11   12.  Michigan St    9-1 
13   13.  Iowa           8-2 
15   14.  Arkansas       8-2 
14   15.  Utah           9-1

Without any losses among the top 15, the order should stay nearly the same. We're also assuming reasonable victory margins, so any movement in the polls that happens from close or ugly wins isn't addressed, nor boosts that teams invariably get from blowout wins. Everyone in the top 15 wins comfortably but not dramatically, in other words. Happens every week, right?

But in this scenario the computers become important. At #6, Wisconsin could slip past Stanford. The two were basically tied for that slot last week and the Badgers are in better position to move up, ranking #10 in the computer composite to Stanford's #6.

Alabama should pass Michigan State at #11; the Tide play #19 Mississippi State while the Spartans are idle. In some of the computer polls, idle is bad; in every one, beating a 7-2 team is good.

Finally Arkansas may overtake Utah for #14. The Razorbacks play UTEP who is a surprise 6-4 while Utah plays 4-5 Notre Dame.

So the movements projected from a boring weekend are essentially random noise. Of course, the games are going to be a lot more interesting; there will be last-second wins and blowouts, upsets will happen, and we have the added intrigue of the whole Cam Newton saga, which could influence the polls if there's more big news. As always, updates will follow after the games are played and again after the coaches' poll is released.

Pitt falls to UConn: Thru November 12, zero Big East teams are bowl-eligible

The Big East just keeps getting worse and worse. It's been criticized in the last few years as the worst of the BCS conferences, but this year it's undeniable.

With no teams in the top 25 and none with fewer than three losses, the Big East's BCS Bowl representative is guaranteed to be the dog of the bunch, especially now that UConn beat Pittsburgh, 30-28, giving the conference leader its 4th overall loss.

Pitt stands at 3-1 in the conference and every other team has two conference losses. The current Big East standings:

     Record:    Conf     All
Pittsburgh      3-1      5-4
Syracuse        3-2      6-3
South Florida   2-2      5-3
Louisville      2-2      5-4
Connecticut     2-2      5-4
Rutgers         1-2      4-4
Cincinnati      1-2      3-5
West Virginia   1-2      5-3

I guess you could say it's an exciting conference race now as everyone is still alive. Pittsburgh has South Florida, West Virginia, and Cincinnati left to play, and that 1-game lead keeps them the favorite. Even if any of the three teams with 3 losses win out there's no guarantee they'd win the league, so it's probable that the winner will have an 8-4 overall record. But 9-3 or 7-5 isn't far-fetched.

And though it will happen Saturday when Louisville meets USF, amazingly none of the conference's teams has qualified for a bowl game yet. Syracuse is the only team with six wins, and they have two wins over FCS teams so they'll have to reach seven wins to qualify. Here is a comparison of the conferences with regard to how many members have reached bowl eligibility as of November 12:

Big Ten:  7
Big 12:   7
SEC:      7
ACC:      6
MAC:      5
MWC:      4
WAC:      4
C-USA:    4
Pac-10:   3
Ind:      1
Big East: 0
Sun Belt: 0

The Big East isn't keeping very good company at the bottom with the Sun Belt. Is it because of tough out-of-conference schedules? Yes and no.

Here are the Big East's out-of-conference losses (teams with losing records in red):

• Pitt: Utah, Miami, Notre Dame
• Syracuse: Washington
• USF: Florida
• Louisville: Kentucky, Oregon State
• UConn: Michigan, Temple
• Rutgers: North Carolina, Tulane
• Cincinnati: Fresno State, N.C. State, Oklahoma
• West Virginia: LSU

Overall, not too terrible really. 11 of the 15 have winning records and only Tulane is an embarrassing loss. But here are their out-of-conference wins (BCS schools in green, FBS grey):

• Pitt: New Hampshire, FIU
• Syracuse: Akron, Maine, Colgate
• USF: Stony Brook, Western Kentucky, Florida Atlantic
• Louisville: Eastern Kentucky, Arkansas State, Memphis
• UConn: Texas Southern, Buffalo, Vanderbilt
• Rutgers: Norfolk State, FIU, Army
• Cincinnati: Indiana State, Miami (Ohio)
• West Virginia: Coastal Carolina, Marshall, Maryland, UNLV

Not much there to brag about; the only two wins over BCS conference foes are highlighted. There are just three FBS teams on that list with a winning record.

It's going to be a sad day for the Fiesta Bowl (who picks last) or Orange Bowl (who could be forced to take the Big East winner to make better overall pairings) when the BCS bowl reps meet to pick their teams.

Week 11 Preview, Odds, and Predictions: Upset Possibilities Abound; are the Irish due for some luck?

Many (including SportsRatings) have been looking at the BCS standings and trying to project who will be in the national championship game as well as the other BCS bowls. But of course, if a few games here and there go awry, the whole picture changes. This could be one of those weeks. In addition to BCS #1 Oregon facing a dangerous Cal team on the road, a resurgent Georgia has a chance to tackle a possibly distracted Auburn squad. Other potential major victims this week include Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Alabama, Arizona, some of which would be huge upsets. But in some ways, the biggest would be Notre Dame beating Utah.

Notre Dame vs. Utah

Notre Dame has a history of pulling off amazing upsets. People forget that because they've been so bad recently under Charlie Weis (and even this year under Brian Kelly) that it hasn't been happening; the Luck of the Irish seems to be gone. But it always returns when least expected. Utah is only a 6 point favorite, but for many people this would be the biggest upset of the week.

With the recent death of a student videographer, emotions around South Bend are running high. The football team lost a game they should have won against Tulsa just after the accident. Now they've had a week off and the team can go one of two ways: sleepwalk through the rest of the season and miss a bowl game, or play like they have nothing to lose.

Utah was just plain ruined by TCU last week. Now they have to go on the road to face the Irish in a game they'll be expected to win easily. But they, too, may be at a crossroads. With no BCS bowl to play for and lingering doubts about themselves from last week, they could be walking into a trap.

Other Major Upsets Possibly In Play:

• Oregon-Cal
• Auburn-Georgia
• Oklahoma State-Texas
• Penn State-Ohio State
• Mississippi State-Alabama
• USC-Arizona

Every weekend has potential upsets. But some weekends are full of them while others are not. Random? Probably so. But for some reason this weekend "feels" like one of those where the upsets keep coming. The six games above all are in play because the opponents have shown that they can play great football at times, and if they bring their "A" game and have a little luck, they'll be the winner.

Cal is a perfect example. They've folded in some games and looked terrific in others, racking up 50+ points three times. Georgia was awful early on but has come back strong and nearly beat Florida two weeks ago, averaging 42.8 points in their last five outings. Texas has one of the best defenses in the country; if their offense produces at all, they can play with anyone as Nebraska found out. Penn State was deemed "over" not long ago; now they are back and are 6-3. Finally, USC has its moments, moments where they look like the USC of old, and are still a formidable foe.

Here are this week's top ten games and our picks:

Luck of the Irish?: #15 Utah (8-1) at Notre Dame (4-5)

Vegas Line/Spread: Utah by 6
Strength Power Rating Pick: Utah 34-23 (Utah wins 71% of comparisons)
Yardage Analysis Score: Utah 31-24
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Utah 30-26
Expected # of Sacks: Utah 2.2, Notre Dame 2.0
Comments: By most measures, Utah should win this one comfortably, hold Notre Dame to fewer than 100 rushing yards, and create yet another embarrassment for the Irish program. But the vagaries of psychology can change everything. And it's never easy playing in South Bend. Don't forget, even though Notre Dame is 4-5 and has looked terrible (at Navy, for example) they could easily be 7-2 right now, as they nearly beat Michigan and Michigan State and should have defeated Tulsa. Their other loss came to Stanford. As for Utah, mediocre teams (Pitt and Air Force) have given them fits this year, and they tend to play worse than they are when on the road (remember 2008's undefeated team beating a 3-9 Michigan team by a hair). It's also quite telling that the spread is so low compared to the Strength Power Rating projection. As I explained above, this is my major upset pick, and it won't have good consequences for TCU both with the computers and human pollsters.
Final Prediction:  Notre Dame 28, Utah 27

Could #1 Fall Again? • #1 Oregon (9-0) at California (5-4)

Vegas Line/Spread: Oregon by 20
Strength Power Rating Pick: Oregon 44-24 (Oregon 84%)
Yardage Analysis Score: Oregon 34-20
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Oregon 35-20
Expected # of Sacks: Oregon 2.6, Cal 1.7
Comments: Oregon has been a paragon of consistency—at least 42 points every outing—while Cal has been up and down. As mentioned above the Bears scored 50 three times but have been held to single digits twice. And the teams they put 50+ on—UC Davis, Colorado, and ASU—aren't world-beaters. But notice something interesting: all three of those big wins came at home. As did their 35-7 crushing of UCLA. All totalled, the Bears have outscored their opponents at home 189-34 while losing 81-158 on the road. According to the Strength Power Rating, their game ratings are 35 points better at home. Put another way, at home they play equivalent to Oregon; on the road they're Iowa State. Looking at Oregon's road play, they're still great but not as good as they are at home, and not as good as the Bears are at home. Though the Ducks win 5 of 6 on average, that's still a good 16% that Cal should take, and this game will test the Cal home/road theory. The outperformance is mainly on offense, so they'll have to pour it on stay ahead. Oregon's defense isn't the best, and if Cal has their typical home game of the season thus far it will be a shootout. This will be their first home game without Kevin Riley at QB, so it's more realistic to think that Cal will come up short, but that's no fun now is it?
Final Prediction: California 48, Oregon 45

Could #2 Fall As Well? • Georgia (5-5) at #2 Auburn (10-0)

Vegas Line/Spread: Auburn by 8
Strength Power Rating Pick: Auburn 38-30 (67%)
Yardage Analysis Score: Auburn 41-23
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Auburn 40-23
Expected # of Sacks: Auburn 2.4, Georgia 1.1
Comments: Auburn is favored by 8, the same margin the Strength Power Rating gives, so it's not clear that the Cam Newton fallout is affecting people's perceptions at all. And that's probably accurate; if anything, Auburn's margin should be increased since they're playing at home. In general, when a team is "embattled" they will outperform at home and underperform on the road. If the scandal lasts, look for it to hurt the Tigers big time at Alabama. But for now, it's them against the world and they're going to take it to Georgia. Now, the Bulldogs have been playing great football recently, so don't expect a blowout. But though they're playing a touchdown better than their average, the Tigers will match it. Expect a good, hard-fought rivalry game with Auburn coming out ahead and racking up over 300 rushing yards. Update: There's increasing talk that Cam Newton might not be allowed to play. The pick doesn't change either way.
Final Prediction: Auburn 40, Georgia 34

Will the Longhorns ever catch a break? • #10 Oklahoma State (8-1) at Texas (4-5)

Vegas Line/Spread: Oklahoma State by 5 1/2
Strength Power Rating Pick: Oklahoma State 38-23 (75%)
Yardage Analysis Score: Oklahoma State 28-24
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Oklahoma State 33-21
Expected # of Sacks: Texas 1.5, Oklahoma State 0.7
Comments: I'm trying to think of a way to pick Texas here, to justify it, I guess. There doesn't seem to be anything other than Texas is due for a good game after the crap they've played recently. Or maybe, their defense is sound, if they slow the Cowboys down and keep the game low-scoring, they have a chance. That worked against Nebraska on the road, why not Oklahoma State at home? Probably because the Longhorns have a home field DISadvantage at the moment. It's by total defensive yardage that Texas looks the best, ranking #2 in the nation, with the #2 pass defense. They're not even that bad against the run, despite UCLA's field day against them. So slow down Weeden/Blackmon and Hunter and they come really close, 28-24, by the yardage estimate. But add in expected turnovers and the Cowboys pull away again. So their only hope is to win the turnover battle; that or play like they did against Nebraska. But the last three games don't seem to show any hope of that happening.
Final Prediction: Oklahoma State 34, Texas 20

Joe Pa Gets #401? • Penn State (6-3) at #11 Ohio State (7-2)

Vegas Line/Spread: Ohio State by 18
Strength Power Rating Pick: Ohio State 33-13 (93%)
Yardage Analysis Score: Ohio State 33-10
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Ohio State 35-7
Expected # of Sacks: Ohio State 1.8, Penn State 1.5
Comments: Left for dead a few weeks ago, Penn State's chance for a good bowl game are back with a vengeance; the discovery of new quarterback Matt McGloin has saved their offense and halted the interceptions that plagued them with Robert Bolden at the helm. With Ohio State and Michigan State still on the schedule, getting more than seven wins will be a chore. I think they'll get the upset against the Spartans but the Buckeyes aren't going to succumb at home. McGloin will lessen Ohio State's expected turnover advantage and deliver through the air but he can't save the running game which should be held to under 100 yards. The new and improved Penn State will do respectably but I see no upset here.
Final Prediction: Ohio State 34, Penn State 23

Tide Get Unthinkable 3rd Loss? • #16 Mississippi State (7-2) at Alabama (7-2)

Vegas Line/Spread: Alabama by 13 1/2
Strength Power Rating Pick: Alabama 23-8 (81%)
Yardage Analysis Score: Alabama 28-14
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Alabama 28-14
Expected # of Sacks: Mississippi State 2.9, Alabama 0.4
Comments: Mississippi State has lost only to LSU and Auburn, who have one loss combined, and that's due to Auburn beating LSU. So in theory they're as high as #3 in the nation. But with Florida as their top "skin" and recent 5- and 7-point wins over UAB and Kentucky there's not much evidence that they're an elite team. The problem is offense, which they have little of, and Alabama's defense which should shut them down pretty effectively, particularly through the air where I see them failing to top 100 yards. They have a big advantage in the pass rush, where they should trouble Greg McElroy while feeling little heat themselves, so if they can slow down Alabama's passing game they could keep the score low enough to have a chance. But again, this is at Alabama and the Tide aren't as clueless on offense as Florida.
Final Prediction: Alabama 24, Mississippi State 10

Wildcats Have a Hangover, Too • USC (6-3) at #18 Arizona (7-2)

Vegas Line/Spread: Arizona by 4
Strength Power Rating Pick: Arizona 30-28 (52.5%)
Yardage Analysis Score: Arizona 42-34
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Arizona 42-33
Expected # of Sacks: Arizona 2.5, USC 2.2
Comments: Can Arizona recover from last week's beatdown at Stanford, regroup, and face the Trojans at home? All the numbers say they should win: the oddsmakers have them by 4, the Strength Power Rating by 2, and by yardage (adjusted by estimated turnovers) says 9 points. Both teams like to pass and both should go over 300 yards, with Arizona getting 332 yards to USC's 310. Nick Foles should be closer to 100% and if he's not, Matt Scott has also topped a 70% completion rate—wasn't it just last pre-season that Arizona fans (and coaches) were complaining that both QBs sucked? Anyway, this is a game that should be pretty close and Foles still being slightly hobbled could make a difference.
Final Prediction: USC 29, Arizona 23

The No-Upset Zone: #24 San Diego State (7-2) at #3 TCU (10-0)

Vegas Line/Spread: TCU by 26 1/2
Strength Power Rating Pick: TCU 42-11 (96%)
Yardage Analysis Score: TCU 45-10
Yardage + Turnovers Score: TCU 48-7
Expected # of Sacks: TCU 0.9, SDSU 0.8
Comments: According to our in-depth game-comparison system, which splits offensive and defensive TCU has a 96% chance of winning. If you look at whole games, however, there has not been a single SDSU performance that matches the worst TCU performance. The Horned Frogs smell the blood of a national championship and they aren't going to let to upstart Aztecs get in the way. According to the yardage statistics, TCU should go over 500 yards of total offense while holding San Diego State to 56 rushing yards.
Final Prediction: TCU 42, San Diego State 7

Idaho Challenging Boise...Really? • #4 Boise State (8-0) at Idaho (4-5)

Vegas Line/Spread: Boise State by 34 1/2
Strength Power Rating Pick: Boise State 49-15 (98.8%)
Yardage Analysis Score: Boise State 52-10
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Boise 54-7
Expected # of Sacks: Boise State 6.0, Idaho 0.5
Comments: This game is a big deal in Moscow, Idaho, and more than usual since Boise State's president called Vandal fans "nasty" and "inebriated." Well, what are Vandals supposed to be? The fans may be angry and fired up but that won't help their team, who has no chance on paper at least. Boise has a 98.8% chance of winning this game, and are favored by 34.5, 34, and 47 by the oddsmakers and our statistics. Looking at the computed yardage estimates Idaho may have trouble reaching positive rushing yards, while Boise State should pass for over 300 and reach 500 total yards. The Broncos ought to have the turnover advantage, and should typically rack up 6 sacks (hence the negative rushing yardage) while Idaho is equally likely to have 1 or none.
Final Prediction:  Boise State 52, Idaho 17

SEC East Title Game: #23 South Carolina (6-3) at Florida (6-3)

Vegas Line/Spread: Florida by 6 1/2
Strength Power Rating Pick: Florida 28-21 (66%)
Yardage Analysis Score: Florida 27, South Carolina 24 OT
Yardage + Turnovers Score: Florida 26-21 (Gators 2 INT 1 fumble rec, Gamecocks 2 fumble rec)
Expected # of Sacks: South Carolina 2.9, Florida 2.4
Comments: Once again this was being touted as South Carolina's year, where they could win their division in the SEC (which, along with Arizona's Pac-10 hopes, we called out as premature). But even as the Gators faltered, giving South Carolina an opening to take control, the Gamecocks blew it as well. They lost to Kentucky the same week Florida suffered their third loss, and last week were blitzed by Arkansas, leaving this game as the decider. Based on yardage the teams are so evenly matched that our estimates have the Gators outgaining the Gamecocks by just 2 total yards. But Florida should have better luck with turnovers and seems to have gathered together enough quarterbacks recently to run an offense so I give this one to them.
Final Prediction: Florida 27, South Carolina 21

Alabama Loses, Moves from 15th to 11th in BCS Computers. How?

Yahoo! Sports' Matt Hinton's Fun Fact of the Week is

Alabama's average computer rank is 11th after Saturday's loss at LSU, up from 15th before the defeat.

and predictably, some respondants said the computers use "junk math." Of course, it does seem strange. Aren't teams supposed to drop, not rise, when they lose? Let's look at this a bit closer.

First, it's not entirely accurate that Alabama rose from 15th to 11th. Technically, it was not their average that went from 15th to 11th, but the ranking of their "adjusted" average, where the high and low are thrown out before averaging the remaining four. If you total their computer rankings, then rank that total without throwing any away, Alabama was 12th, not 15th, on October 31st. So their overall computer ranking really only moved up one spot.

Still, why did it move up at all after a loss? Their summed ranking was 74 on October 31st and improved to 73 on November 7. That's just a total of one position among all the computers, but going from 7-1 to 7-2 you would expect a decline in ranking. That's what happened with three of the computers.

The reasonable computers?

Anderson & Hester (AH), Richard Billingsley (RB), and Ken Massey's (KM) ratings all dropped the Tide for the loss. And all seem pretty reasonable.

• In AH, #9 Alabama lost on the road to #3 LSU, and fell to #10
• In RB, #6 LSU beat #4 Alabama and the two swapped places
• In KM, Alabama was ranked just 16th, and fell to 17th for losing to a top ten team.

I don't think you can argue much with those results. For the record, in SportsRatings' Success Ratings, Alabama was #16 with a 4.82 score and fell to #17 with a 4.32 rating.

The other three computer rankings, then, are what we should be investigating: the Colley Matrix (CM), Jeff Sagarin (JS), and Peter Wolfe (PW).

• In CM, the Tide were 13th and rose to #11
• In JS, Alabama moved from #17 to #16
• In PW, they moved up from 15 to 13

Let's think about what happens when a team loses to another strong team. First of all, both teams' strength of schedule increases. SOS is rarely an explicit item in a power rating, but rather is inextricable to the functioning of the power rating itself. With some way of embedding SOS, there is no power rating; you'd have to rank the teams by wins and losses alone.

So Alabama's loss is immediately softened by an increase in their SOS. But it rarely if ever should cause a team's rating, i.e. the mathematical score output by the system, to increase. It could, however, essentially leave the team unchanged, or declining very little.

Alabama's opponents

Remember, also, that a team's rating is not just based on its own play that weekend. In determining SOS, a team's opponents' performance is a critical factor, naturally. Only Billingsley's method does not re-evaluate opponents' strength as the season continues; most systems, including the other five used by the BCS, continually modify the SOS ratings. How did Alabama's previous opponents fare?

San Jose State     Lost to NM State
Penn State         Beat Northwestern
Duke               Beat Virginia
Arkansas           Beat South Carolina
Florida            Beat Vanderbilt
South Carolina     Lost to Arkansas
Mississippi        Beat UL Lafayette
Tennessee          Beat Memphis

Of Alabama's eight previous opponents, 6 won and 2 lost. Disregarding Arkansas and South Carolina (who played each other) the Tide's foes were 5-1. San Jose State was 1-7 and hardly worth anything as a win anyway, so their loss is negligible. Florida, Ole Miss, and Tennessee beat poor competition, but combined it's somewhat significant. Penn State beating Northwestern and especially, Duke beat Virginia increased those teams' value.

So in short, Alabama lost to a 1-loss team and therefore lost value, but some of that was made up by the fact that Alabama's opponents fared well over the same weekend, making Alabama's wins over them look better. The end result is that Alabama's rating by most reasonable systems should not decline very much.

How Alabama's neighbors in the rankings fared

And in Alabama's case, they happened to be ranked behind several teams that suffered a much worse loss. While Alabama's score decline slightly, these teams took big hits and fell below the Tide. This seems to be what happened in two of the computer ratings where Alabama moved up:

• In CM, Alabama moved past Oklahoma, Utah, and Arizona, all of whom lost, and was passed by Stanford (who beat Arizona) for a net gain of two places
• In PW, Alabama moved past Missouri and Oklahoma, both of whom lost.

It's more accurate to say that those teams "fell past" Alabama, as the Tide really made no upward move to speak of. 

But this does leave Sagarin's ranking, wherein Alabama moved up one place from 17 to 16. One spot came from Oklahoma's loss, but that was balanced out by Arkansas passing the Tide after beating South Carolina. Alabama's net gain actually came from passing Ohio State, the former #16 who fell to #18. What gives?

Why Alabama passed the Buckeyes in Sagarin

The Buckeyes were idle over the weekend, so they didn't affect the rankings at all. One team dropped below them while three passed them: Alabama, Mississippi State, and Arkansas. The latter two won games, so their move is understandable. So it all comes down to this: why did Alabama pass Ohio State?

In all the computer rankings we've looked at, this seems like the only puzzling bit. Why would Alabama lose a game and move past Ohio State, who didn't play? Again, we have to look at opponents. What did Ohio State's previous opponents do last weekend?

Marshall         Beat UAB
Miami (FL)       Beat Maryland
Ohio             Beat Buffalo
Eastern Michigan idle
Illinois         Lost to Michigan
Indiana          Lost to Iowa
Wisconsin        Beat Purdue
Purdue           Lost to Wisconsin
at Minnesota     Lost to Michigan State

Ohio State's opponents were 4-4, with one team idle. Take away Wisconsin and Purdue who played each other and that becomes 3-3, which is not a great weekend for a top team's opponents. So Ohio State, without playing a single down, saw its rating (according to Sagarin) decline because half of its wins were no longer as impressive.

And relating it to Alabama, it's saying that it is better to lose to a good team and have your opponents go 5-1 than to not play and have your opponents go 3-3. At least, with those specific opponents, and opponents' opponents.

We don't know the details, either. Alabama was 17th and Ohio State 16th, and they might have been separated by 1/1,000 of a point. Maybe Sagarin got the teams' places mixed up when he sent it last week's rankings. Maybe someone from Ohio State called him an idiot and he's getting revenge. Anything is possible.

But more likely, it's an explainable quirk of a complex system. A quirk, yes, but an explainable one. Other scenarios would single out a different computer rating as the "culprit" and no algorithmic system is going to make perfect sense all the time.

So there we have our verdict. In the case of Alabama 10/31 vs. Alabama 11/06, we find:

• Anderson & Hester, Richard Billingsley, and Ken Massey's ratings to be extremely sensible
• Wes Colley and Peter Wolfe's ratings to be unintuitive but ultimately sound
• Jeff Sagarin's rating is confounding but ultimately makes some sense when the specifics of the case are examined.

Those who disagree and think Sagarin uses "junk math" must first display their own M.I.T. math degree and then you will be heard.