2010 Projected Final BCS Standings (post week 11): TCU's fate uncertain again

This year we are projecting the Final (pre-bowl) BCS Standings each week, based on our pre-season standings and using the projected winner from each game. Every week these projections will be updated using the actual results for that week. For the most recent projection click here.

Here is the projection using our pre-season prognostications combined with results through week 11 (11/13/2010):

2010 Projected Final BCS Rankings  - post-week 11
lw	#	Team	record	BCS Bowl	Current BCS#	If they win out
1	1	Oregon	12-0	Title Game	1	1
2	2	Boise St	12-0	Title Game	4	2
3	3	Auburn	12-1	Sugar	2	2
4	4	TCU	12-0	Fiesta/Orange?	3	4
6	5	Alabama	10-2	Orange	11	5
7	6	Stanford	11-1	Rose	6	6
8	7	Wisconsin	11-1	Rose	7	7
13	8	Oklahoma	11-2	Fiesta	14	8
9	9	Ohio State	11-1	Sugar	9	9
5	10	Nebraska	11-2		8	5
10	11	Arkansas	10-2		13	11
12	12	Missouri	10-2		15	12
11	13	LSU	10-2		5	5
14	14	Virginia Tech	11-2	Orange	16	14
19	15	Oklahoma St	10-2		10	4
15	16	Michigan St	10-2		12	10
16	17	Iowa	8-4		20	16
18	18	Utah	10-2		23	18
17	19	Arizona	8-4		22	16
21	20	Miami FL	8-4		24	17
22	21	North Carolina	8-4		--	21
20	22	Florida	8-4		--	22
--	23	Nevada	10-3		18	12
23	24	Penn State	8-4		--	24
--	25	Hawaii	10-3		--	25

(#24 UCF and #25 Miss. State fell out)

Using this projection, we get the following probable bowl pairings (favorites in green):

BCS Championship Game:	Oregon vs. Boise State
Rose Bowl:	Wisconsin vs. Stanford
Sugar Bowl:	Auburn vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl:	Virginia Tech vs. Alabama
Fiesta Bowl:	Oklahoma vs. Pittsburgh (BCS #29)

This week's notes:

• Will an undefeated TCU make it to a BCS bowl or not?

One week after everyone else had ushered them into the BCS title game (assuming an Auburn loss to Alabama), TCU is in an uncertain state and we don't have them in a BCS bowl under most conditions. Unlike most, we were projecting the Utah loss to Notre Dame already and knew that TCU's computer ranking would take a hit, but we didn't forsee the Notre Dame game being so one-sided, nor TCU having a close call with San Diego State. Now Boise has passed TCU in the polls and with the computers it's inevitable, too, meaning that the Broncos will get the title shot if Auburn falters. Indeed, Auburn might remain ahead of TCU even if they lose. Imagine a year-end scenario such as this:

Polls             Computer composite
1. Oregon         1. Oregon
2. Boise State    2. Auburn
3. TCU            3. Boise State
4. Auburn         4. Alabama
5. Wisconsin      5. TCU

Which is likely if Alabama beats Auburn. The Tigers would likely remain the top 1-loss team in the polls while remaining very strong with the computers after an SEC title game win. Alabama could pass TCU in the computers after beating the Tigers, who stay ahead of the Horned Frogs overall. A wild card is the Cam Newton investigation, which could turn voters off of the Tigers and drop them further in the polls if they lose.

But everyone know that both Boise and TCU have no room for error. If the Broncos falter at all, TCU can regain their position in the polls which is worth twice as much as the computer rankings. Boise State has three games left; assuming TCU dominates hopeless New Mexico and Boise wins all three, it comes down to Boise's style points. The wins will put them ahead of TCU with the computers, but Boise has three chances to slip up and put more doubt in voters' minds.

• Rose Bowl is pretty well set if Auburn loses

As long as Alabama beats Auburn, the Rose Bowl is pretty well determined: Wisconsin vs. Stanford. The Badgers and Cardinal look like they'll hold their current BCS positions. Since we again switched favorites (back to Oklahoma) in the Big Twelve title game, this means Nebraska won't jump either team. Wisconsin's monster win over Indiana in some ways legitimized them as a highly-ranked team among voters, and Stanford's big wins over Washington and Arizona did the same a few weeks ago. So when the Rose Bowl gets around to choosing a replacement for Oregon, it won't go "off the board" and take TCU, which was one of the possibilities explored last week when TCU was flying high.

Wisconsin should remain well ahead of Ohio State even as the Buckeyes win out against Iowa and Michigan. The Iowa win lost a bit of luster after the Hawkeyes fell to Northwestern. Even if it hadn't, the pollsters will keep the Badgers ahead of OSU in the polls and they'll stay ahead in the computers.

Michigan State, who beat Wisconsin, is projected to be upset by Penn State in their final game, making the Badgers the automatic choice, but if the Spartans win out there is a three-way tie that is broken by the BCS ranking. Even if it comes down to the BCS standings Wisconsin will get the nod.

• Either Alabama or TCU misses a BCS bowl

Last week we noted that either TCU, Alabama, or Stanford would be left out of a BCS bowl, and after the weekend it's more likely that it's TCU. With Nebraska "out of the way" for now, Alabama could finish in the top five. They can't be picked for the Sugar Bowl (which will have Auburn) but the Orange Bowl would love to have them, and the "public pressure" to fix things so TCU could get in the Fiesta Bowl probably won't be too great anymore.

If the Orange takes Alabama, the Fiesta is left with Pitt (or whoever from the Big East). The only way the "higher ups" might get involves is if Virginia Tech loses a 3rd (or 4th) game and still wins the ACC, in which case pitting them against an 8-4 Pitt might preserve the luster of the other bowl games better. In that scenario, TCU might play Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.

Another way Alabama loses out is if LSU beats Arkansas and finishes with 1 loss. The Tigers would be a clear pick for the Orange in that case, ahead of the Tide whom they beat. If that happens, both Alabama and TCU are left out. The weekend's winner, therefore, is Stanford, who held their BCS position despite a narrow win.

• Other teams that could make a move

Nebraska's tepid win over Kansas, as well as Texas' continued death spiral, has hurt the 'Huskers chances for a big move if they win out. They would still make big gains by winning out and winning the Big Twelve title game, but not the extent of threatening to pass TCU or Boise. There isn't an impressive foe for them to beat, either, as they already beat Oklahoma State and Oklahoma has two losses. More than anything, though, it's the loss to Texas at home that looks really bad compared to other teams' more excuseable defeats.

Speaking of Oklahoma State, they could make a decent run by beating both Oklahoma and Nebraska while winning the Big Twelve, a result that would put them at or near the top of the computer rankings at 12-1. But their advancement in the polls would be limited by the undefeated (and some 1-loss) teams in front of them. The Fiesta Bowl is their highest realistic goal.

Likewise, LSU's best hope is for an at-large BCS bowl, since they can't make the Sugar Bowl. At 1 loss, they'd be picked somewhere.

• Bottom of the charts

Florida's loss to South Carolina was an upset, but it didn't knock the Gators down too far. Mostly because it didn't add a loss to their projected record. In net terms, they'll still have four losses: one added due to losing to South Carolina, but one taken away due to not being in the SEC title game. This is also the reason South Carolina doesn't reappear on the list, as they gained a win but their projected losses remains the same, and if they lose to Clemson and Auburn they won't be in the top 25 at 8-5. If they beat the Tigers, of course, they're in the Sugar Bowl, which would really turn things upside-down.

Nevada's projected record finally gets good enough for them to appear on the year-end projection. We still have them losing to Boise and perhaps Louisiana Tech in an upset, still good enough to hold on at #23. Win out and they rise to an unremarkable #12, as few teams in the top dozen are expected to lose. They're the ultimate spoiler at this point, and can dash Boise State's hopes even with a tough-fought game.

Hawaii, who beat Nevada, should finish the year 10-3 as they have just three terrible teams left, and this should be good enough for them to appear in the polls and place 25th in the BCS rankings. Many BCS conference teams will be taking their 4th or 5th loss at this time and clearing the way for the Warriors. One of those teams is Florida State, currently #25 in the BCS. They are favored to win the ACC Coastal division but may lose to Florida and Virginia Tech which would knock them out as well.

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BCS Selection Rules for 2010-11
(simplified; full detail here):

• #1 and #2 teams go into BCS Championship game;

then, if still available:

• Rose Bowl gets Big 10, Pac 10 champs*
• Sugar Bowl gets SEC champ
• Orange Bowl gets ACC champ
• Fiesta Bowl gets Big 12 champ

After these conference winners have been placed, selections will be made in the following order:

• BCS #1 team is replaced*
• BCS #2 team is replaced*
• Sugar Bowl picks its 2nd team
• Orange Bowl picks its 2nd team
• Fiesta Bowl picks its 2nd team

*special Rose Bowl note: In replacing a Big Ten or Pac-10 team that makes the BCS title game, the Rose Bowl will select an automatic non-BCS qualifier.

Automatic qualifiers: All of the BCS conference champs must be selected, along with Notre Dame if in the top 8, any one other non-BCS-conference champ if in the top 12 (or top 16 if ranked ahead of a BCS conference champ), and in most cases either the #3 or #4 team in the BCS rankings (if they are BCS-conference teams).

Beyond the automatic qualifiers, the remaining teams are selected "at-large". At-large teams must be selected from those in the top 14.

Comments

[chub]

u were right TCU got screwed...undefeated and no ntl championshp...but they got a bcs bowl tho