Yardage analysis, or comparing team's average yardage gains after adjusting for the teams they played, can give a clue as to exactly why teams are failing or succeeding, and point out teams that may begin to have success if they turn those yards into points more effectively. These are the early results (games through 9/25/2010) for this season.
Let's get right into it. After week four, here are the top schedule-corrected rushing teams:
Rank Team Rec Total[rank] Rush[rank] Pass[rank]
1. Air Force 3-1 403.8[ 53] 366.7[ 1] 37.0[126]
2. Michigan 4-0 568.3[ 1] 359.0[ 2] 209.2[ 68]
3. Nebraska 4-0 490.9[ 12] 348.6[ 3] 142.3[107]
4. Georgia Tech 2-2 405.0[ 52] 318.8[ 4] 86.1[124]
5. Navy 2-1 407.1[ 49] 311.8[ 5] 95.2[121]
Note that three are the usual suspects, triple-option teams Air Force, Georgia Tech, and Navy. Rich Rodriguez' offense is very run-oriented and Michigan has the #1 rusher in the nation with Denard Robinson, and the Wolverines are #2 in the country as a team. Nebraska, who was a traditional rushing power for decades before a largely-unsuccessful dabbling with pro-style offenses recently, comes in at #3 and has their own running quarterback once again.
At #6 is last year's #1, Nevada, and at #7 is ground-game powerhouse Oregon. Not many surprises in rushing offense.
Let's look at passing offense:
Rank Team Rec Total[rank] Rush[rank] Pass[rank]
1. Hawaii 2-2 556.1[ 2] 95.5[104] 460.5[ 1]
2. Arkansas 3-1 549.6[ 4] 97.2[100] 452.3[ 2]
3. Louisiana Tech 1-3 416.5[ 43] 6.9[129] 409.5[ 3]
4. Arizona St 2-2 495.9[ 10] 128.4[ 80] 367.4[ 4]
5. Oklahoma 4-0 473.9[ 21] 117.8[ 87] 356.0[ 5]
A little more interesting. Hawaii had 459 passing yards against USC and threw for 7 touchdowns against Charleston Southern last weekend. Arkansas' Ryan Mallet is the most productive passer so far so the Razorbacks' #2 showing is expected.
Louisiana Tech is a team that has made a big transition from a run-oriented offense to a spread attack led by ex-Troy offensive coordinator Tony Franklin. Apparently it's having an effect as the Bulldogs are racking up huge passing stats—while ranking dead last in rushing. All three of the top passing teams are struggling on the ground.
Arizona State is another team whose passing game has been juiced by a major change in the offense from last season, and like Arkansas they have an ex-Michigan quarterback at the helm (Steven Threet). Oklahoma at #5 is relying a lot on the pass despite having DeMarco Murray in the backfield.
Taking a look at overall offensive yardage production, a few more balanced teams sneak in:
Rank Team Rec Total[rank] Rush[rank] Pass[rank]
1. Michigan 4-0 568.3[ 1] 359.0[ 2] 209.2[ 68]
2. Hawaii 2-2 556.1[ 2] 95.5[104] 460.5[ 1]
3. Iowa 3-1 552.5[ 3] 248.6[ 14] 303.8[ 16]
4. Arkansas 3-1 549.6[ 4] 97.2[100] 452.3[ 2]
5. California 2-2 539.0[ 5] 268.6[ 10] 270.4[ 30]
Michigan's balance puts them at #1 ahead of Hawaii with Arkansas at #4. Iowa and California make the top five as they're doing well in both areas, particularly the Hawkeyes who at this time are the only team in the top 25 in both rushing and passing yards. Last year's Iowa offense was only average, while their defense won games for them, so it will be interesting to see if these numbers hold up.
Despite ranking #14 in rushing, Iowa was unable to move the ball on the ground against Arizona, and that is reflected in the Wildcats' early rushing defense ranking:
Rank Team Rec Total[rank] Rush[rank] Pass[rank]
1. Arizona 4-0 149.9[ 1] 20.1[ 1] 129.8[ 15]
2. Virginia 2-1 192.7[ 4] 35.6[ 2] 157.0[ 25]
3. Illinois 2-1 317.2[ 36] 52.9[ 3] 264.2[104]
4. Boise St 3-0 216.3[ 6] 62.0[ 4] 154.3[ 22]
5. Central Florida 2-2 162.2[ 2] 63.8[ 5] 98.3[ 6]
At #2, Virginia limited USC to 147 yards on the ground but have also played two FCS teams which are harder to grade. Illinois at #3 might not last either as they allowed 163 yards from Northern Illinois but they held Missouri to under 100.
Boise State shut down both Virginia Tech's Ryan Williams and Oregon State's JacQuizz Rodgers, and held Wyoming to negative yardage, so they're definitely for real (and they're #1 on a per-carry basis). Central Florida had a top ten rushing defense last year and they recently held Kansas State's Daniel Thomas to just 76 yards.
Let's take a look at total defense next:
Rank Team Rec Total[rank] Rush[rank] Pass[rank]
1. Arizona 4-0 149.9[ 1] 20.1[ 1] 129.8[ 15]
2. Central Florida 2-2 162.2[ 2] 63.8[ 5] 98.3[ 6]
3. Colorado 2-1 174.9[ 3] 69.3[ 6] 105.5[ 9]
4. Virginia 2-1 192.7[ 4] 35.6[ 2] 157.0[ 25]
5. Texas A&M 3-0 215.6[ 5] 211.2[112] 4.3[ 1]
Arizona has put the lid on the rush so far this year and is good at pass defense, too. Central Florida and Colorado have both been excellent in both areas. Colorado may be a surprise but even though they gave up 52 points to California they held the Bears to nearly as few yards as Arizona, and held Hawaii to their lowest passing total.
Texas A&M is the oddball, with a crazy passing number so far (not counting last night's Oklahoma State game) but with a terrible rushing defense number. The Aggies results are almost certainly due to having played only three games and the "newness" of the season in general. They've only given up a total of 227 rushing yards, so their low ranking there is as flukish as their #1 pass defense rating.
Notice that four of the top five in rushing defense are among the top ten in total defense, the exception being Illinois whose passing defense has been dismal. Let's take a look at pass defense:
Rank Team Rec Total[rank] Rush[rank] Pass[rank]
1. Texas A&M 3-0 215.6[ 5] 211.2[112] 4.3[ 1]
2. Navy 2-1 321.7[ 39] 304.7[128] 17.0[ 2]
3. Rutgers 2-1 267.2[ 14] 192.4[ 96] 74.7[ 3]
4. Florida Atlantic 1-2 328.6[ 46] 253.4[124] 75.1[ 4]
5. Army 3-1 223.4[ 7] 142.9[ 52] 80.5[ 5]
Here is where we note that per-attempt passing defense is a much better measure, since teams with poor rushing defense aren't thrown against much, making their pass defense look great. The top five in per-attempt pass defense are:
Rank Team Rec Total[rank] Rush[rank] Pass[rank]
1. Texas A&M 3-0 7.9[ 8] 3.9[ 59] 4.0[ 1]
2. Virginia 2-1 6.2[ 2] 2.1[ 7] 4.0[ 2]
3. Alabama 4-0 7.7[ 5] 3.6[ 40] 4.1[ 3]
4. Navy 2-1 11.5[ 75] 7.0[128] 4.4[ 4]
5. Arizona 4-0 6.0[ 1] 1.5[ 2] 4.4[ 5]
Now we still have Texas A&M and Navy in the top five, but Rutgers and Army fall to more average positions while Florida Atlantic is only 83rd, showing that teams just aren't throwing on them—they're running against FAU's 124th-ranked rushing offense. Note that there are over 120 teams in these rankings because several FCS teams have played 2 or more games against Division I-A opponents.
Navy's poor rushing defense is strange, as they are a run-based team and finished #26 in rushing defense last year. They lost all three linebackers, however, and that may have made a big difference. It's early in the year and the Midshipmen have played just three games so these results may be a fluke, but since they rank poorly in both per-game and per-attempt rushing defense there might be something to it.
Finally, a team's total yardage differential—yards on offense vs. yards yielded on defense—can often identify teams that are having success in the trenches but haven't had success in the final score yet. Here are the top ten teams that are outgaining their opponents, also corrected for opposition:
Rank Team Rec Yds± Off Def
1. Arizona 4-0 276.7 36 1
2. Boise St 3-0 273.8 13 6
3. Alabama 4-0 270.5 8 8
4. Iowa 3-1 248.6 3 27
5. California 2-2 240.4 5 26
6. Arkansas 3-1 224.9 4 41
7. Nevada 4-0 210.8 7 25
8. Virginia 2-1 201.2 58 4
9. Nebraska 4-0 186.7 12 28
10. Texas A&M 3-0 184.1 55 5
Not too many surprises in the top ten as six of these teams are undefeated (before last night). Iowa's only loss is to Arizona who rules the yardage game so far. Cal also lost to Arizona, as well as to #7 Nevada. Arkansas nearly beat #3 Alabama; the Tide are perhaps tellingly the only team in the top ten in both offense and defense, though #2 Boise is close. The only surprise team on the list is Virginia at #8.
The Cavaliers lost to USC but made a good game of it, falling only 17-14. While their offense has barely been above-average, their defense has been rock-solid. But as we noted above, two of their three games have been against FCS (I-AA) opponents, so their performance has basically been judged by the USC game. If that game was a fluke, then so is their top ten ranking here.
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