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Everyone wants to know the BCS Standings right now!—before the games have been played, before the polls have been released—instead of just waiting a few days/hours until Sunday evening. So we'll be predicting the results for the coming Sunday, both before and after the weekend's games have been played.
Of course the big news is BCS #1 Oklahoma's loss to Missouri. Other than that not a lot of BCS-busting activity took place. #4 Auburn beat #6 LSU and #13 Wisconsin beat #15 Iowa. #16 Nebraska did beat #14 Oklahoma State, but that's only a small upset in BCS terms and the Cornhuskers were the favorite by the oddsmakers.
Before the weekend this was the scenario that put Auburn on top, just barely ahead of Oregon. Even a huge beatdown of UCLA doesn't help Oregon much since A) the computers don't see the margin of victory, just that they beat a mediocre team, and B) they were already #1 in the polls so even impressing the humans doesn't do much good.
But now that the games have been played, it looks like Oregon might take the top spot instead. It's going to be close. The key might be TCU, who blasted Air Force 38-7; this might be enough for them to hold their spots in the polls (#4 USA, #3 Harris) meaning Auburn will be #3 and #4 instead of #3 in both polls. They'll be #1 in the computer composite but Oregon's lead in the human polls could be too great. Oregon will move up a few notches in the computers and will gain some votes (maybe at idle Boise's expense) due to their 60-13 win. It depends on how voters view Auburn's win, which was less than dominant and at home, but was over a previously undefeated team. I think Cam Newton gained more #1 Heisman votes than Auburn #1 poll votes from the performance.
UPDATE: After I had changed my mind, Auburn did take the top spot after all, as they went to #3 in the Harris Poll. Oregon was #2. Oklahoma edged Wisconsin for #9; and Nebraska was 14th rather than 12th.
Projected BCS top 15 for Sunday, October 24, 2010 (week 9 i.e. BCS week 2):
pre new team rec notes
2 1 Oregon 7-0 neck and neck with Auburn for #1
4 2 Auburn 8-0 very close to #1
3 3 Boise St 6-0
5 4 TCU 8-0 close to #3
7 5 Michigan St 8-0 solid #5, close to #4
11 6 Missouri 7-0
8 7 Alabama 7-1
9 8 Utah 7-0 could be #7
13 9 Wisconsin 7-1
1 10 Oklahoma 6-1 could be 9th or 11th
10 11 Ohio St 7-1
16 12 Nebraska 6-1
6 13 LSU 7-1 close to #12
12 14 Stanford 6-1
18 15 Arizona 6-1
Boise State could lose support for being idle while some other top teams did so well; if so, TCU could actually pass them for #3.
Oklahoma and LSU take pretty big falls here, but the field is crowded with 1-loss teams which is what they are now. Utah will be tight with Alabama but probably not pass them; Wisconsin will attempt again to pass Ohio State and this time I think they'll make it. But both are really close to Oklahoma, who may only fall to #9 and push the other teams down. Oklahoma #9, Ohio State #10, Wisconsin #11 is a possibility too, but it appears the Badgers will be ahead of the Buckeyes.
UPDATE: With the coaches poll out (see below), Michigan State appears an even more solid #5 and is closer to #3 and #4 Boise and TCU. Utah has a chance of being #7 ahead of Alabama, but Alabama has a big point lead in the coaches poll and Missouri might be ahead of them in the Harris poll so Alabama is still probably #7.
Oklahoma is also very likely to stay in the top ten. It appears that the voters will move Wisconsin ahead of Ohio State, and with the Sooners remaining ahead of Nebraska and still strong in the computer polls, Ohio State will probably fall a spot to #11. This is the only adjustment I'm making since the AP and coaches poll came out.
The AP and USA results suggest Auburn could be #3 in the Harris poll, which would put them neck and neck with Oregon for #1, but Oregon gained a lot of first-place votes in the coaches poll and should do the same in the Harris, which might keep them ahead of the Tigers.
Here are the assumptions I made regarding the USA (coaches) and Harris polls, which have the majority of effect on the BCS rankings:
USA Today (coaches) poll projection
prev new
1 1 Oregon 7-0
2 2 Boise St 6-0
5 3 Auburn 8-0
4 4 TCU 8-0
7 5 Alabama 7-1 actual: #6
8 6 Michigan St 8-0 actual: #7
9 7 Utah 7-0
16 8 Missouri 7-0
11 9 Wisconsin 7-1
10 10 Ohio St 7-1
13 11 Nebraska 6-1 actual: #12
3 12 Oklahoma 6-1 actual: #11
6 13 LSU 7-1
14 14 Stanford 6-1
17 15 Florida St 6-1
The biggest question here is how far Missouri will rise. There's no guarantee even that they'll rise above Oklahoma, but since they're undefeated it would be odd if they didn't. In most other cases where a victorious team is ranked below the team they beat, both teams have the same record; see Wisconsin and Ohio State. I think the coaches will move Wisconsin ahead of Ohio State for beating Iowa, but that's not a given either after the Buckeyes' strong performance. So I've hedged by keeping Ohio State ahead in the Harris Poll, where their lead was bigger to begin with.
UPDATE: The coaches poll projection was correct except that Michigan State and Alabama were reversed, as well as Nebraska and Oklahoma.
Harris Poll projection
prev new
1 1 Oregon 7-0
2 2 Boise St 6-0
3 3 TCU 8-0
5 4 Auburn 8-0
7 5 Alabama 7-1 probably #6 re: coaches poll/AP
8 6 Michigan St 8-0 probably #5 re: coaches poll/AP
9 7 Utah 7-0
16 8 Missouri 7-0
10 9 Ohio St 7-1 probably #10
11 10 Wisconsin 7-1 probably #9
14 11 Nebraska 6-1 probably #12
4 12 Oklahoma 6-1 probably #11
13 13 Stanford 6-1
6 14 LSU 7-1
18 15 Arizona 6-1
The polls should remain pretty similar to each other. Auburn will probably be higher in the USA poll, Ohio State in the Harris poll; Stanford will hold their spot in both, and either Arizona and Florida State should be #15 in either. After seeing the actual coaches poll and AP, the likely changes above are noted. In addition to MSU and Alabama reversing, and Nebraska and Oklahoma reversing, my hedge of having Ohio State ahead of Wisconsin appears unlikely as both AP and USA put the Badgers in front significantly.
THANK GOD THE "POLLERS" FINALLY PUT WISKY AHEAD OF THE FUCKEYES!!!! 31-18 GOD DAMMNIT PROOF IS ON THE FIELD!!!!!!
Posted by: Cheeeeeeze Hed | October 24, 2010 at 05:25 PM