SportsRatings: College Football

SportsRatings Top 25 week 9: Glut of 1-loss teams in Big Ten, Big Twelve

Welcome to the SportsRatings College Football Top 25 for the week ending October 30, 2010. This is a subjective ranking, not a computer power rating. It does attempt to use several rules, some of which include honoring head-to-head results whenever possible, and giving more consideration to teams with wins over other top 25 teams.

This week, the top of the rankings is pretty easy. Oregon stays #1 after clobbering USC, Boise State holds onto #2 as Virginia Tech entering the polls helps them stave off #3 Auburn, and TCU remains #4 a week ahead of their showdown with undefeated #5 Utah.

 Then it gets tough. From #6 through #14, the teams can be in just about any order. But with my guidelines there's a big of direction. In the Big Ten, Michigan State has to remain ahead of Wisconsin, who remains ahead of Ohio State. And in the Big Twelve, Nebraska has priority over Missouri who tops Oklahoma.

With that in mind, we move Alabama up to #6 as Nebraska has that nagging home loss to 4-4 Texas. The Cornhuskers still jump a long way from #15 as they have two wins over 1-loss teams. Missouri follows at #8, only dropping a couple of spots, and LSU is at #9 after their idle week. The Tigers face Alabama next week.

Michigan State deserves to drop a lot after losing 37-6 to Iowa, but they must remain ahead of Wisconsin. This means the Badgers have to be downgraded a bit, and they fall to #11. Oklahoma falls from #10 to #13. Wisconsin gets the higher nod since, with two top 25 wins, they should be ahead of #12 Stanford who has none; Oklahoma meanwhile has only a win over FSU who hangs on at #25. Finally, Ohio State stays at #14 as their sole top 25 win—Miami—fades away.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week nine 2010 (thru 10/30/2010)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Oregon	8-0	wStanford 52-31
2	2	Boise State	7-0	w@VTech 33-30
3	3	Auburn	9-0	wLSU 24-17, SCar 35-27, Ark 65-43, @MissSt 17-14
4	4	TCU	9-0	wBaylor 45-10
7	5	Utah	8-0
8	6	Alabama	7-1	L@SC 35-21; w@Ark 24-20
15	7	Nebraska	7-1	L Texas 20-13; wMizz 31-17, @OKst 51-41, @KSt 48-13
5	8	Missouri	7-1	L@Nebraska 31-17; wOklahoma 36-27
11	9	LSU	7-1	L@Auburn 24-17; wMissSt 29-7
6	10	Michigan St	8-1	L@Iowa 37-6; wWisconsin 34-24
9	11	Wisconsin	7-1	L@MichSt 34-24; wOSU 31-18, @Iowa 31-30
12	12	Stanford	7-1	L@Oregon 52-31
10	13	Oklahoma	7-1	L@Missouri 36-27; wFSU 47-17
14	14	Ohio State	8-1	L@Wisc 31-18; wMiami 36-24
17	15	Oklahoma St	7-1	L Nebraska 51-41; w@KState 24-14
16	16	South Carolina	6-2	L@KY 31-28, @Aub 35-27; wBama 35-21
20	17	Arizona	7-1	L OregonSt 29-27; wIowa 34-27
18	18	Arkansas	6-2	L@Aub 65-43, Bama 24-20
24	19	Iowa	6-2	L@Arizona 34-27, Wisc 31-30; wMichSt 37-6
21	20	Mississippi St	7-2	L@LSU 29-7, Aub 17-14
22	21	Nevada	6-1	L@Hawaii 27-21
23	22	Baylor	7-2	L@TTech 45-38, @TCU 45-10; wKState 47-42
--	23	Virginia Tech	6-2	L JMadison 21-16, Boise 33-30; NCst 41-30
--	24	NC State	6-2	L@ECU 33-27ot, VTech 41-30; wFSU 28-24
13	25t	Florida St	6-2	L@NCState 28-24, @OK 47-17; w@Miami 45-17
25t	25t	Syracuse	6-2	L@Wash 41-20, Pitt 45-14
		out:
19	--	Miami FL	5-3	L@Virg 24-19, @OSU 36-24, FSU 45-17
25t	--	Kansas St	5-3	L@Baylor 47-42, Nebraska 48-13, OKst 24-14

Oklahoma State slides up to #15 after beating Kansas State; Arizona moves up to #17; and Iowa jumps from #24 to #19 for toppling Michigan State. SEC teams South Carolina and Arkansas, who play each other next weekend, hold at #16 and #18. Mississippi State, Nevada, and Baylor move up a notch each.

The biggest moves in the rankings happened due to Florida State and Miami losing. The Seminoles fell to North Carolina State, which both moves the 6-2 Wolfpack ahead of them, but also 6-2 Virginia Tech, who beat N.C. State earlier. And because Miami lost to Virginia and fell out, Florida State no longer has a top 25 win and tumbles all the way to a tie at #25 with Syracuse, who against all odds holds on for a 2nd week in the rankings after taking apart Cincinnati 31-7.

Last week's reserve supply of 2-loss teams was whittled down by nine, with Hawaii and San Diego State probably the best of 8 remaining in terms of résumés. There are several 3-loss teams that are probably better picks for the rankings, including Illinois (who has lost only to Missouri, Michigan State, and Ohio State) and Oregon State (a win over Arizona, losses to Boise, TCU, and Washington).

BCS Projections for Sunday, October 31: Sunday Updates and Standings

Everyone wants to know the BCS Standings right now!—before the games have been played, before the polls have been released—instead of just waiting a few days/hours until Sunday evening. So in addition to our projections of the Final BCS Standings, we'll also be predicting the results for the coming Sunday.

There were no real surprises in the intra-BCS Top 25 games this weekend. Michigan State and Missouri, though ranked #5 and #6, both lost as we and the oddsmakers expected. What we didn't factor in our Friday projection was the magnitude of the Michigan State loss, which will greatly affect how far the Spartans fall in the polls. We'd suggested that a narrow loss to Iowa would drop Michigan State a few spots, keeping them above Wisconsin, but the 37-6 loss is going to drop them out of the top 10, somewhere between 12 and 16. Right now I'm using 12 in one poll and 16 in the other, I'll change that when the coaches poll comes out and gives more clarity. Update: MSU fell to #15 in the coaches poll and may fall to #16 in Harris, where Iowa was higher to start with. Missouri also fell past Oklahoma, and Nebraska didn't pass the Sooners so their upside is diminished despite a big computer bump.

Other results, outside of the top BCS teams, have affected my projection of the computer rankings since Friday. Not the score margins, of course, but there were smaller changes owing to games like Virginia-Miami and Baylor-Texas.

Last week's (October 24) BCS top 15 and this weekend's results:

 1 Auburn         8-0   beat Mississippi 51-31
 2 Oregon         7-0   beat USC 53-32
 3 Boise St.      7-0   beat LA Tech 49-20
 4 TCU            8-0   beat UNLV 48-6
 5 Michigan St.   8-0   lost to #18 Iowa 37-6
 6 Missouri       7-0   lost to #14 Nebraska 31-17
 7 Alabama        7-1   idle
 8 Utah           7-0   beat Air Force 28-23
 9 Oklahoma       6-1   beat Colorado 43-10
10 Wisconsin      7-1   idle
11 Ohio St.       7-1   beat Minnesota 52-10
12 LSU            7-1   idle
13 Stanford       6-1   beat Washington 41-0
14 Nebraska       6-1   beat #6 Missouri 31-17
15 Arizona        6-1   beat UCLA 29-21

BCS Projection: After games of weekend played, after USA-TODAY (coaches) poll out:

prev new
1     1  Auburn        9-0  actual #2
2     2  Oregon        8-0  actual #1
3     3  Boise St.     7-0  actual #4
4     4  TCU           9-0  actual #3
8     5  Utah          8-0 
7     6  Alabama       7-1 
10    7  Wisconsin     7-1  actual #8
9     8  Oklahoma      6-1  actual #9
14    9  Nebraska      7-1  actual #7
11    10 Ohio St.      8-1  actual #11
12    11 LSU           7-1  actual #10
6     12 Missouri      7-1 
5     13 Michigan St.  8-1  actual #14
13    14 Stanford      7-1  actual #13
15    15 Arizona       7-1 

Auburn still looks like a secure #1 to me. Other sites are projecting Oregon to take the top spot, but I don't see how since they can't gain much at all in the polls, already being near the ceiling. Their computer ranking will go up enough to remain #2 easily. Earlier I had speculated that Boise might take over #2—or fall to #4—but now both look unlikely. The top four should remain the same.  

And there is a huge gap between the top four and number five. Utah and Alabama now appear to be competing for the #5 spot, with Utah leading by a razor-thin margin. Despite being idle, Wisconsin made a decent jump in the coaches poll and should be #7 in the BCS, moving ahead of Oklahoma. The team that beat the Sooners (Missouri) lost, as did the team that beat Wisconsin (Michigan State) but the Badgers blow is softened by Iowa's value increasing. All of this means that Wisconsin's computer score moves closer to Oklahoma's while they maintain their poll lead.

Nebraska's formerly-projected big jump doesn't look like it will occur as they are only #10 in the coaches poll, and probably from #10 to #12 in the Harris poll. The Cornhuskers will be around #9. Their victim, Missouri, now probably falls below Oklahoma—whom they beat last week—as they dropped all the way to #14 in the coaches poll. Assuming they do the same in Harris they will end up #12 in the BCS. Oklahoma, with the extra poll slot, is free to move up to #8.

Ohio State and LSU probably will gain one spot this week as Missouri tumbles below them (along with Michigan State, of course). The Spartans may fall all the way to #15 depending on what the Harris pollsters do; they could end up below Iowa in that survey.

Stanford and Arizona are tight for the #14 slot, with the Cardinal probably holding it due to the polls. Their 41-0 win gave the pollsters a reason to move them up, but their computer ranking slips due to opponents UCLA, Wake Forest, Notre Dame, USC, and Washington State all losing. Arizona will hold on to #15 ahead of Iowa.

UPDATE: Well, apparently Auburn's lead wasn't so secure, and Boise State did fall behind TCU. The distance between Oregon and Auburn is slight, as is TCU's lead over Boise State. After that, though, there is a giant gap. Nebraska made almost as big of a move as I had projected earlier (I had them #6, they ended up #7) despite not moving up as much in the polls as I thought. Their margin ahead of Wisconsin and Oklahoma is razor-thin; it's practically a three-way tie for #7.

Unbeatens Fall: Iowa Exposes Michigan State, Final Score 37-6; Nebraska Beats Missouri 31-17

We've been saying for weeks that Michigan State wasn't a great team, but rather a good team that played like a great one due to emotion after coach Mark Dantonio's heart attack. This afternoon #24 Iowa proved that was true by not just beating the Spartans but demolishing them 37-6. They led 30-0 at the half.

Spartan quarterback Kirk Cousins was intercepted three times, one for a touchdown by Micah Hyde who took a lateral from Tyler Sash who actually made the pick. Ricky Stanzi threw three touchdown passes for the Hawkeyes.

Unlike last week against Wisconsin, everything went right for Iowa Saturday except for another missed extra point, but this time it didn't matter as the Hawks keep their Rose Bowl hopes alive.

Nebraska 31, Missouri 17

Despite being without Taylor Martinez most of the game Nebraska jumped out to a 24-0 lead on Missouri, leading 31-17 with 10 minutes remaining. Roy Helu Jr. made up for Martinez' absense by rushing for  three touchdowns on runs of 66, 73, and 54 yards. He had 228 yards after just 10 carries and finished with 307, an all-time Nebraska record.

Martinez left with a leg injury in the first half; in the first quarter he threw for a touchdown to put the Huskers up 17-0.

Nebraska's defense came up with a killer goal-line stand late in the third quarter, forcing Missouri to kick a field goal after starting 1st and goal from the one yard line.

BCS Ramifications

As we (and the oddsmakers) predicted, the BCS #5 and #6 teams lose and will fall; we projected a minor fall for the Spartans since they should remain ahead of Wisconsin, and Missouri wouldn't fall behind Oklahoma. But the magnitude of Michigan State's loss makes it possible they fall farther. The two teams will still remain fairly high in the computer rankings, which don't use margin of victory.

So while it appeared both teams would remain in the BCS top ten, now Michigan State will likely fall out of the top ten and Missouri is borderline.

Nebraska should move well into the top ten, and Iowa could make a bigger move than we expected, to higher than #15. We'll make another projection tomorrow morning.

 

Heisman Trophy week 8: Cam Newton steps in front of Shoelace

The Heisman race has turned around in a 3-week span from Denard Robinson being an overwhelming favorite to Cameron Newton holding the same status. It's now Newton's award "to lose" just like it was for Shoelace just a short while ago.

Cameron Newton just keeps getting better and better, and his 217 yard rushing performance in a marquee game against LSU—including a dazzling, constantly-replayed touchdown run—is what has pushed him to the top of everyone's list. He now accounts for 27 total touchdowns and is in the top six in both rushing yards and passing efficiency.

Kellen Moore didn't play last weekend; his numbers reflect those prior to Boise State's tuesday night win. He's basically in it to the end, hoping everyone else falters. Denard Robinson was idle, too, and has dropped precipitously on other lists I've seen, but I'm not going to project a Michigan collapse. If it happens, then I'll consider moving Robinson farther down, but right now, who has had half the season he's having? Other than Newton, no one has been more impressive, and given Michigan's poorer surrounding cast he's done a remarkable job. Out of sight, out of mind is in play here, and I think once Robinson has another great game he'll be remembered, and with closing contests against Wisconsin and Ohio State he's still got a shot. At this point he's still a lock for a trip to New York in my mind.

This week's list, in rough order (click here for the most recent update):

• Cam Newton, Junior, QB Auburn (8-0) [added week six]
  90-138 (65.2%) 1364yd 13TD 5int; 157rsh 1077yd (6.9av) 14TD 0fmb
• Kellen Moore, Junior, QB Boise State (6-0) [added week two]
  105-151 (69.5%) 1567yd 16TD 1int;  8rsh -11yd (-1 av) 0TD 1fmb
• Denard Robinson, Soph, QB Michigan (5-2) [added week one]
  97-143  (67.8%) 1319yd  9TD 5int; 137rsh 1096yd (8.0av) 9TD 1fmb
• LaMichael James, Soph, RB Oregon (7-0) [added week five]
  134rsh 971yd (7.3av) 11TD 3fmb; 4rec 121yd 1TD
• Terrelle Pryor, Junior, QB Ohio State (7-1) [added week three]
  134-203 (66.0%) 1775yd 18TD 6int; 79rsh 408yd (5.2av) 3TD 0fmb; 1TD rec  
• Justin Blackmon, Soph, WR Oklahoma St (6-1) [added week seven]
  62rec 1112yd 14TD 0fmb; 3rsh 8yds (2.3av) 0TD; 1 TD block return
• Colin Kaepernick, Senior, QB Nevada (6-1) [added week four]
  120-176 (68.2%) 1480yd 10TD 5int; 97rsh 669yd (6.9av) 12TD 3fmb 
• Mark Ingram, Junior, RB Alabama (7-1) [added pre-season]
  85rsh 544yd (6.4av) 8TD 0fmb; 13rec 68yd 0TD
• Andrew Luck, Soph, QB Stanford (6-1) [added week eight]
  133-200 (66.5%) 1728yd 19TD 5int; 35rsh 253yd (7.2av) 2TD 3fmb
  

LaMichael James continues to lead the nation in per-game rushing yardage. That fact plus the Ducks' undefeated and #1 status will keep James in the mix. This week's game against USC is a high-profile opportunity for James, who has an uphill battle against the two running quarterbacks.

Terrelle Pryor had a good game against Purdue, and has an even easier opponent coming up at Minnesota. But as if to underscore his inconsistency he had two interceptions to go with his three touchdown passes. Though he may—most of the time—be a better passer than Newton or Robinson, his running isn't nearly as dynamic and without leading his team to a BCS title game there's not much that can kick-start his candidacy.

Oklahoma State's Justin Blackmon had such a strong game against Nebraska that he raised his stock even as his team lost. Then he went out and got a DUI and got himself suspended for this weekend's Kansas State game. Bummer. There goes his (long) shot at a 2,000 yard season, and possibly with it his chances for a high Heisman finish.

Nevada was idle; Colin Kaepernick is beyond a darkhorse to even go to New York, but he deserves some consideration and the game against Boise State will be his center-stage performance. Last year's winner Mark Ingram had another pedestrian game and is firmly the team's #2 rusher (although per-game he still leads Trent Richardson). He's finally fallen out of the top five in ESPN's Heisman Predictor, and when we start making cuts he'll undoubtedly be the first to go.

Nebraska's Taylor Martinez was the best player of the week other than Newton, and his team knocked off an unbeaten foe, too. But even Martinez's five touchdown passes couldn't convince us to list him this round; although his sudden passing prowess makes him a double threat on the level of Newton, Robinson, Pryor, or Kaepernick (he rushed for 112 yards, too), he's burned out twice already, including just last week when he was benched against Texas. We'll make him prove himself one more time—against undefeated Missouri, who also has a potential candidate in Blaine Gabbert.

So Andrew Luck joins the list this week after being on the radar all season. He could make the top five but he's got a major uphill battle in terms of winning the award which already seems out of reach. As we've seen recently, though, the race can turn on a dime.

BCS Projections for Sunday, October 31st: Road Tests For Top Teams

Everyone wants to know the BCS Standings right now!—before the games have been played, before the polls have been released—instead of just waiting a few days/hours until Sunday evening. So in addition to our projections of the Final BCS Standings, we'll also be predicting the results for the coming Sunday. Check here for the most recent updates.

This week there are only two games between top 25 BCS teams: #6 Missouri vs. #14 Nebraska, and #5 Michigan State vs. #18 Iowa. But there will be many tests, because every active undefeated team plays on the road.

We have #1 Auburn traveling to Mississippi, while #2 Oregon goes to Pasedena to face dangerous USC. #4 TCU plays at UNLV. #5 Michigan State and #6 Missouri both play on the road. And #8 Utah makes it six undefeated teams that play a road game this weekend as they face Air Force in Colorado Springs.

Boise State already won their game on Tuesday, and #16 Florida State lost to N.C. State so the Seminoles won't be in the top 15.

Here is the current BCS top 15, from last week (October 24, 2010):

 1 Auburn         8-0   at Mississippi
 2 Oregon         7-0   at USC
 3 Boise St.      7-0   beat LA Tech 49-20 Tuesday
 4 TCU            8-0   at UNLV
 5 Michigan St.   8-0   at #18 Iowa
 6 Missouri       7-0   at #14 Nebraska
 7 Alabama        7-1   idle
 8 Utah           7-0   at Air Force
 9 Oklahoma       6-1   Colorado
10 Wisconsin      7-1   idle
11 Ohio St.       7-1   at Minnesota
12 LSU            7-1   idle
13 Stanford       6-1   at Washington
14 Nebraska       6-1   #6 Missouri
15 Arizona        6-1   at UCLA

BCS Projection: Assumes favorites (by oddsmakers) win, i.e. Nebraska beats Missouri, Iowa beats Michigan State

prev new
1     1  Auburn        9-0
2     2  Oregon        8-0
3     3  Boise St.     7-0
4     4  TCU           9-0
8     5  Utah          8-0
14    6  Nebraska      7-1
7     7  Alabama       7-1
5     8  Michigan St.  8-1
10    9  Wisconsin     7-1
6     10 Missouri      7-1
9     11 Oklahoma      6-1
11    12 Ohio St.      8-1
12    13 LSU           7-1
15    14 Arizona       7-1
13    15 Stanford      7-1

With a win Auburn easily holds onto the top spot, but from there it's dicey. Boise State could actually pass Oregon, which seems silly since Oregon faces one of their highest-ranked foes yet. Shouldn't a win over USC secure them at least at #2?

It probably will. But if Missouri and Michigan State—#2 and #3 in the computer composite—fall enough to boost Boise State (tied for 6th) up a few notches in most computers, but not Oregon (8th), the Broncos could garner enough points to end up #2. Remember, Oregon has almost no upside in either of the polls, so any advancement they make is in the computer side. The Ducks have a bit of a cushion, but if they beat USC narrowly their aura of dominance—and with it their near-unanimous #1 polls slot—could crumble.

It's also possible, though, that Boise could fall to #4 behind TCU, who might be the new computer #2. If the Broncos lose their #2 spot in the USA or Harris to Auburn, their tiny lead over the Horned Frogs is in jeopardy. If either of these moves happen, it will probably be temporary; Boise will eventually re-settle in at #3 barring a loss by a team above them.

Utah could rise to #5 as they're well-positioned in the polls to advance with a decent win over Air Force and an idle week by Alabama. But the team really poised to jump is Nebraska. A win over previously-unbeaten Missouri—the Huskers' second win over an unbeaten team—would boost them in the the polls (where luckily the #9, #11, and #12/13 teams are idle) as well as the computers. They'll easily break into the top ten and probably come close to making the top five (BCS) under this scenario.

Michigan State's computer ranking won't suffer too much, and pollsters will try to keep them ahead of Wisconsin, so the Spartans should maintain a top ten ranking. Missouri's "stop-loss" is Oklahoma whom they beat just last week, so they'll fall a bit further but also could stay in the top ten. Idle teams Oklahoma and LSU will probably slip, as will Ohio State who plays lowly Minnesota.

Rounding out the top 15 should be Pac-10 teams Arizona and Stanford. Former #18 Iowa might reach #15 as the Hawks' computer ranking will jump if they beat the Spartans, but the polls are not kind this week. With the losing teams remaining fairly high and a 7-1 Arizona sure to remain ahead of a 6-2 Iowa team they beat, the best Iowa can do is rise a few spots in the USA and Harris. That's better luck than former #16 Florida State, who lost and took themselves out of the equation on Thursday night.

That's it for the pre-weekend forecast. I'll post an update Sunday morning once all of this is irrelevant due to upsets.

Week 9 Preview, Odds, and Predictions: Will #1 Fall Again?

The talk has been about the Number One spot: how it's cursed this year, and how for the first time in several decades the #1 team has lost three weeks in a row. Therefore, Oregon had better be careful! Or wait, should Auburn be careful? Or both? The "three-in-a-row" soundbyte uses the same logic that allows multiple teams to claim a national champ for a given year. In actuality, the AP #1 team did not lose three in a row (Oregon won last week, following losses by Alabama and Ohio State) but since BCS #1 Oklahoma lost, well, the sportswriters counted that for some reason. Makes a good talking point.

But with two #1 teams, there's double the chance that we'll be able to call it four in a row, just pick the poll/system you want. And neither team has an easy task: Oregon travels to USC, where the Trojans are quietly looking like a very strong team all of a sudden, and Auburn plays at Mississippi. The Tigers have had maybe one easy game all year so anything involving them should be interesting.

As for the rest of the undefeated teams, four more are in action, meaning six of the seven are putting their seasons on the line; Boise State already won on Tuesday night. What's interesting is that all of them play on the road. Missouri has the toughest assignment (at Nebraska) while Michigan State (at Iowa) and Utah (at Air Force) don't have walks in the park, either. I think we'll see at least one undefeated team lose this week, and don't be surprised if half lose, as the amount gets whittled down to around two by the end of the regular season.

Thursday Night Football: Florida State (6-1) at N.C. State (5-2)

Vegas Line/Spread: FSU by 3 1/2
Strength Power Rating Pick: FSU (55%) 32-29
Yardage Analysis Score: 31-31
Comments: The perception of Florida State and North Carolina State is that the former is a powerful team—they beat Miami 45-17 after all—and that the latter is a 5-2 fluke who just lost to East Carolina. But the Wolfpack's 5-2 record includes some decent victims, such as Georgia Tech, UCF, Cincinnati, and 44-17 over Boston College. Playing at home, the oddmakers see roughly a field goal margin and the Strength Power Rating agrees. By yardage analysis it's a straight-up draw. Using the FBS-only Strength Power Rating—which negates the effects of week one where both teams had blowouts over FCS teams—N.C. State is favored by 35/100ths of a point. Florida State has a recent history of looking good in the ACC before disappointing their fans, and North Carolina State is one of the surprise teams of the year. I predict an entertaining Thursday evening with a narrow Wolfpack win.
Final Prediction: North Carolina State 34, Florida State 31 (OT)

Trojans Playing Spoiler? #1 Oregon (7-0) at USC (5-2)

Vegas Line/Spread: Oregon by 6 1/2
Strength Power Rating Pick: Oregon (76%) 43-29
Yardage Analysis Score: Oregon 49-45
Comments: What's interesting about USC is that they've become the ultimate spoiler. Unable to win the Pac-10 even if they hadn't already lost two games, the Trojans can still crush teams' dreams. And it could happen to Oregon this weekend. Through the first few games USC looked terrible, narrowly beating Hawaii, Virginia, and Minnesota. Then they lost two games and were written off. But since then things have changed. A 48-14 blowout of Cal showed that they're still extremely dangerous. The Hawaii win looks a lot better since the Warriors are 5-2. And a last-second loss at Stanford is better than many top 25 teams would do. The Trojans are knocking on the door of the top ten in the Strength Power Rating. Let's face it: a few missed field goals and USC is 7-0, and being touted as the "real" #1 team, though ineligible for post-season play. There's no middle ground with how the Trojans are portrayed; their season is either a shambles are they are the greatest team of all time. If they beat Oregon it will be the latter again. But can anybody beat the Ducks, who are running away with the top spot in the Strength ratings, with a top ten defense to go with their #1 offense? USC's defense will be the best the Ducks have faced, but they can pass if the running game is slowed. This should be a high-scoring game, and USC should have their third narrow loss.
Final Prediction: Oregon 42, USC 39

Dixie Bowl: #3 Auburn (8-0) at Mississippi (3-4)

Vegas Line/Spread: Auburn by 7
Strength Power Rating Pick: Auburn (73%) 44-30
Yardage Analysis Score: Auburn 41-28
Comments: I don't think the Tigers are going to blow this one, which means there will be no fourth week in a row of some #1 team falling. The question is how close will the game be. Auburn has won four games by a touchdown or less, while three of Mississippi's losses have been by two touchdowns. The oddsmakers go with the 1-touchdown pattern while both my power ratings predict about a two touchdown margin. Splitting the difference, Auburn wins by 10.
Final Prediction: Auburn 34, Mississippi 24

Big Twelve North Title Game: #5 Missouri (7-0) at #15 Nebraska (6-1)

Vegas Line/Spread: Nebraska by 7 1/2
Strength Power Rating Pick: Nebraska (57%) 30-25
Yardage Analysis Score: Nebraska 37-23
Comments: Nebraska's a running team that can't pass well. Missouri's a passing team that doesn't run well. Nebraska is great against the pass and poor against the run. Missouri is average-to-mediocre against both, but is #1 in the nation in the red zone, which explains their #5 scoring defense rating. So look for Nebraska to run all over the TIgers—until they get inside the 20. Good thing for Nebraska that Taylor Martinez often scores on long runs from outside the 20. Nebraska has the #1 pass defense in the country and did well overall against Oklahoma State, but still gave up some big plays. Missouri will have to count on that if they want to stay unbeaten. Overall I think Nebraska will be better able to sustain drives, even if they have to settle for field goals, and Missouri won't be able to keep up.
Final Prediction: Nebraska 30, Missouri 21

Rose Bowl Confusion Eliminator/Creator: #6 Michigan State (8-0) at #24 Iowa (5-2)

Vegas Line/Spread: Iowa by 6 1/2
Strength Power Rating Pick: Iowa (62%) 28-23
Yardage Analysis Score: Iowa 24-21
Comments: This game either eliminates some Big Ten title confusion, or adds more to it. If Iowa wins there will be four teams with a single conference loss, with Iowa beating Michigan State beating Wisconsin beating Ohio State and Iowa. Ohio State visits Iowa next week, while the Spartans don't play the Buckeyes. A win here and MSU has a clear path to a Rose Bowl berth. But will they win? I could see this game going either way, and in a big way. Michigan State is overrated in terms of actual quality; that is, they have earned their high ranking but head-to-head they probably lose to most top 25 teams. Iowa should be able to beat them at home and perhaps expose them. But in terms of psychology it's the opposite: the Spartans are flying high with momentum and possibility, while Iowa is questioning itself after letting last week's game get away from them in the final minutes with major mistakes on special teams, defense, and offense. If they crumble it could be a lopsided Spartan win. Michigan State is a lot like Iowa last year: winning close games with a team that is clearly overachieving. I'm pretty sure they'll lose at least one game, and if it isn't here then I don't know where it will be.
Final Prediction: Iowa 34, Michigan State 17

Missing Justin Blackmon: #17 Oklahoma State (6-1) at #25 Kansas State (5-2)

Vegas Line/Spread: Oklahoma State by 5
Strength Power Rating Pick: Oklahoma State (62%) 44-38
Yardage Analysis Score: Oklahoma State 51-28
Comments: What a difference one player makes. The line has steadily fallen since receiver Justin Blackmon's DUI arrest and one-game suspension, from over a touchdown to (as of this writing) 5 points. And I think his impact could be even greater. Who knows if Brandon Weeden would have good numbers without Blackmon to throw to? 14 of his 21 TD passes have gone JB's way. If the Cowboys are a one touchdown favorite and Blackmon is worth two touchdowns a game, doesn't that put them in big trouble? Luckily for the Cowboys they also have Kendall Hunter, who rushed for 201 yards against Nebraska. And if he can do that against Nebraska then he can certainly do it against Kansas State, who has an atrocious rushing defense. The Wildcats answer with Daniel Thomas, who had some amazing efforts early but hasn't sustained it, and while Oklahoma State's defense is nothing to crow about it's better than Kansas State's. Oklahoma State still wins despite missing Blackmon.
Final Prediction: Oklahoma State 37, Kansas State 28

Mountain West Game of the Week: #7 Utah (7-0) at Air Force (5-3)

Vegas Line/Spread: Utah by 7
Strength Power Rating Pick: Utah (75%) 41-27
Yardage Analysis Score: Utah 31-27
Comments: Utah is playing well enough to make me a believer. Only 40th in our pre-season top 120, the Utes are playing at top 5 level so far. Mostly that consists of blowout out terrible teams so convincingly that it can't be ignored. Their victims so far include 1-6 UNLV, 0-7 New Mexico, 1-7 San Jose State, 4-4 Iowa State, and Wyoming and Colorado State, both 2-6. The one winning team they've defeated is 4-3 Pittsburgh, at home in overtime. So Air Force is going to be the first tough team they've faced on the road, and we'll find out whether the Pitt game was a fluke or not. The Utes could be one of those teams that can blow out poor teams but struggles with a strong team; or else the Pitt performance was a major underperformance. The key to this game is rushing defense, both Utah's and Air Force's. The Utes are decent against the run, which is crucial against the Falcon triple-option. Meanwhile Air Force's rushing D is terrible, and Utah will capitalize. Their main passing weapons may struggle againt the Falcons, who really do have a great pass defense. Utah's next three games—Air Force, TCU, and Notre Dame—are critical and I have a feeling they'll lose two of them, most likely the first two. Utah can prove itself this weekend, but I'm picking the upset in the Utes first road test; Air Force has lost two in a row and is setting a classic trap as Utah could be looking ahead to TCU.
Final Prediction: Air Force 27, Utah 26

Mountain West Snoozefest of the Week: #4 TCU (8-0) at UNLV (1-6)

Vegas Line/Spread: TCU by 35
Strength Power Rating Pick: TCU (98.95%) 45-6
Yardage Analysis Score: TCU 43-0
Comments: Comparing TCU and UNLV's game performances, the Strength Power Rating finds no wins for UNLV out of 56 cross-comparisons. That is, UNLV's best game is worse than TCU's worst game. Splitting out offensive and defensive performances, creating 3,136 matchups, it does find 33 permutations were UNLV triumphs, hence the roughly 1% chance of winning granted to the Rebels. The way the Horned Frogs have been playing lately on defense, though (0, 0, 3, and 7 points yielded) I'm not sure I would give them even that.
Final Prediction: TCU 41, UNLV 0

5-2 Matchup of the Week: East Carolina (5-2) at Central Florida (5-2)

Vegas Line/Spread: UCF by 7 1/2
Strength Power Rating Pick: UCF (77%) 36-24
Yardage Analysis Score: UCF 29-16
Comments: There are scads of 2-loss teams out there, but these are the only two who play each other. Central Florida has lost to 5-2 Kansas State and 5-2 North Carolina State, while East Carolina beat N.C. State and 5-2 Southern Miss while losing to 6-2 Virginia Tech. So these teams are the nexus of all 2-loss teams, and one has to fall. That will probably be East Carolina. UCF has been very consistent and was competitive in its two losses. The Pirates have pulled off some upsets but were beaten down 42-17 and 49-27. UCF should win this one at home.
Final Prediction: Central Florida 35, East Carolina 17

 

Bronco Status Report: What Needs To Happen For Boise State's BCS Title Hopes

Boise State's run toward the BCS title game has been a topic of discussion since day one of this season. Tonight the Broncos play Louisiana Tech and will again try to impress against a less-than-impressive foe. At this point in the season, what has to happen for Boise State to reach the BCS title game? Is it really an "impossible road"?

Boise's schedule includes only a handful of noteworthy opponents: BCS-conference teams Virginia Tech and Oregon State, and WAC surprise Nevada. Hawaii and Fresno State, and perhaps a few other WAC teams will be bowl-eligible. The better those teams do, the better Boise State looks. And the Broncos have to keep winning, and winning by the gaudy scores they've been winning by, particularly tonight as they have the stage all to themselves. There is no room for slip-up. At 11-1 they are out, of course, but an unimpressive 12-0 does the same.

But more important than what they do is what happens to other teams around the country. With Boise State at #2 in the polls and #3 in the BCS, it's safe to say that no team with 2 losses will finish ahead of an undefeated Bronco team, despite the clamoring of the usual suspects (normally SEC conference administrators). This still leaves 16 teams that could possibly finish in front: every undefeated or 1-loss team except for Nevada, whom Boise plays.

Current BCS standings:

1.     Auburn       8-0    
2.     Oregon       7-0    
3.     Boise St.    6-0    
4.     TCU          8-0    
5.     Michigan St. 8-0    
6.     Missouri     7-0    
7.     Alabama      7-1    
8.     Utah         7-0    
9.     Oklahoma     6-1    
10.    Wisconsin    7-1    
11.    Ohio St.     7-1    
12.    LSU          7-1    
13.    Stanford     6-1    
14.    Nebraska     6-1    
15.    Arizona      6-1    
16.    Florida St.  6-1    
17.    Oklahoma St. 6-1    

Teams in red are the ones who pose the most threat to Boise; these are teams that, if they win out, are almost certain to finish ahead of Boise State. These teams (all but one of them, at least) must lose for Boise to get to the BCS title game; some of them could finish ahead even if they lose only once more. Teams in yellow are those who might finish ahead if they win out; a loss by these teams would improve Boise State's chances a lot.

Teams that will be ahead of Boise State with the given record:

• Auburn (13-0) Must lose a regular season game, maybe two. At 13-0 they unquestionably stay ahead.
• Oregon (12-0) Must lose one game. At 12-0 they unquestionably remain ahead of Boise.
• Missouri (13-0) Must lose once, maybe twice. Undefeated, with a win over Nebraska and a Big 12 title game win, they pass Boise State.
• Alabama (12-1) Must lose again. At 12-1 with an SEC title game win, Alabama is very likely ahead of Boise State. With 2 losses they are not under any circumstances.
• Oklahoma  (12-1) Must lose again. If Oklahoma wins out and wins the Big 12 title they will likely pass Boise State.
• Oklahoma St. (12-1) Must lose again. Only 20th in the polls and 17th in the computers right now, the Cowboys play 5-2 Kansas State, 5-2 Baylor, Texas, Kansas, and 6-1 Oklahoma, then probably 6-1 Nebraska in the Big 12 title game. Winning all of those would boost them immensely in the polls, and particularly in the computers, probably enough to pass the Broncos.

Teams that might be ahead of Boise State with the given record:

• Michigan St. (12-0) Probably has to lose a game. Even at 12-0 the Spartans might not pass the Broncos; they don't play Ohio State so their schedule strength won't be very high at the end of the season, but they'll still certainly be ahead in the computers and the pollsters will have them close behind at a minimum. An undefeated Big Ten team will always get the benefit of the doubt.
• Auburn (12-1, 11-1) Going 12-0 and losing in the SEC title game puts them neck and neck with the Broncos, and if they win the SEC title at 12-1 the pollsters could put them ahead, too. At 11-1 with a loss to Alabama they would finish behind, but 11-1 with a win over Alabama it's close.
• LSU (12-1) Might need to lose again. Probably won't pass Boise State even at 12-1, unless they dominate Alabama. The SEC title game will be against less-than-stellar competition, perhaps even a rematch with Florida, and Louisiana-Monroe doesn't help them with the computers. Still, LSU is a traditional national power and could get the benefit of the doubt when push comes to shove.
• TCU (12-0) Not likely to pass Boise even at 12-0. But if Utah finishes 11-1 and TCU beats them soundly they could be a threat. A loss by the Horned Frogs—or even a 2nd loss by Utah, preferably against Air Force the week before playing TCU—would put Boise ahead of all Mountain West teams.
• Missouri (12-1) With one loss and a Big 12 title, Missouri is close. It gets really complicated if they lose a rematch to Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game, a case in which BOTH Missouri and Oklahoma could be ahead of Boise.
• Nebraska (12-1) Might need to lose again. Unlikely to pass Boise even at 12-1, but if Missouri goes 11-1 then Nebraska could finish ahead. Their remaining schedule is not strong enough to boost them in the computers or with the pollsters otherwise.
• Utah (12-0) A loss would be helpful. The Utes are not likely to pass Boise even at 12-0, but should they go undefeated and dominate TCU it could happen.

Teams that pose little or no threat of passing Boise even if they win out:

• Wisconsin (11-1) Not likely to pass Boise State at 11-1. With just Purdue, Indiana, Michigan, and Northwestern left on the schedule there are no "statement" games and their strength of schedule only declines.
• Ohio State (11-1) Not likely to pass Boise State at 11-1. Winning at Iowa would boost their schedule strength and Penn State and Michigan will be higher-profile games, but they likely won't pass Wisconsin in the polls and the computers still won't have them very high.
• Stanford (11-1) Unlikely to pass Boise at 11-1.
• Arizona (11-1) Unlikely to pass Boise at 11-1. The Pac-10 is looking strong based on their non-conference play, but mainly by the magnitude of their wins, not who they beat. So as far as the computers—which can't see margin of victory—are concerned, the Pac-10 is not overwhelmingly strong. Note Oregon's computer ranking (#8) vs. their ranking in the polls (#1).
• Florida St. (12-1) Unlikely to pass Boise at 12-1, even with a conference title game win. The ACC is just too weak, both by the estimation of the pollsters and computers, for FSU to pass an undefeated Boise, particularly considering the magnitude of their loss to Oklahoma. If they play Virginia Tech in the ACC title game and dominate them, some pollster could move them ahead of Boise, but they'd still be too far behind in the computers.

So in summary, the biggest problems Boise State faces are the SEC and Big 12.

• The Pac 10 and Big 10 threats are finished if Oregon and Michigan State lose a game, and even if neither does, Boise could still finish #2 and play Oregon in the title game.
• The Mountain West threats—TCU and Utah—face each other, so one is knocked off and the winner probably won't pass Boise anyway.
• The SEC has Auburn, Alabama, and LSU as possible BCS title game contenders. Boise State's best bet is for LSU to beat Alabama and Alabama to beat Auburn. That leaves LSU in the SEC title game which, even if they win, they aren't guaranteed to place ahead of the Broncos. And LSU is more likely than the other teams to be upset in it, too.
• The Big 12 situation is almost as problematic as the SEC. Any of Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, or Nebraska winning out presents a problem. But the most likely of those—Nebraska wins out—poses the least threat.

Right now it looks like Boise State will finish where they are right now—at #3. So many of the other teams play each other—and upsets are so common—that it's unlikely that more than two teams will be ahead of the Broncos. On the other hand, however, there are so many teams from the SEC and Big 12 that have a shot that it's almost inevitable that a team from one conference or the other will be ahead in the end. And with Oregon looking very strong, a #4 finish for Boise is probably more likely than a #2 finish.

There is still hope, but it doesn't look like Boise State will be in the national title game. The Broncos just have to hope for a year-end finish more like 2001 or 2007 than 2004 or 2009.

2010 Projected Final BCS Standings (post-week 8): Still Oregon vs. Alabama

This year we are projecting the Final (pre-bowl) BCS Standings each week, based on our pre-season standings and using the projected winner from each game. Every week these projections will be updated using the actual results for that week. For the most recent projection click here.

Here is the projection using our pre-season prognostications combined with results through week 8 (10/24/2010):

2010 Projected Final BCS Rankings  - post-week 8
lw	#	Team	record	BCS Bowl	Current BCS#	If they win out
1	1	Oregon	12-0	Title Game	2	1
2	2	Alabama	12-1	Title Game	7	2
3	3	Boise St	12-0	Rose	3	3
4	4	Nebraska	12-1	Fiesta	14	4
6	5	TCU	12-0	Orange?	4	5
7	6	Auburn	11-1	Sugar	1	1
8	7	Wisconsin	11-1	Rose	10	7
9	8	Ohio State	11-1	Sugar	11	8
5	9	Oklahoma	11-2	Orange?	9	3
24	10	Missouri	10-2		6	1
11	11	Stanford	10-2		13	10
13	12	Virginia Tech	11-2	Orange	23	12
10	13	Texas	9-3		--	13
12	14	Arkansas	10-2		19	14
14	15	Michigan St	10-2		5	3
15	16	Iowa	9-3		18	9
22	17	Arizona	9-3		15	5
18	18	Utah	10-2		8	4
16	19	South Carolina	7-5		20	6
20	20	Miami FL	9-3		22	11
17	21	LSU	9-3		12	4
19	22	Florida	9-4		--	10
21	23	Florida St	9-4		16	9
25	24	Oregon St	7-5		--	11
--	25	Texas Tech	8-4		--	19

(#23 Washington dropped out)

Using this projection, we get the following probable bowl pairings (favorites in green):

BCS Championship Game: Oregon vs. Alabama
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Boise State
Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech  vs. Oklahoma (or TCU)
Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska vs. Pittsburgh (#32 in rankings)

This week's notes:

• Oklahoma loss drops them out of probable Sugar Bowl berth

Last week Oklahoma was projected to finish #5, losing only to Nebraska in the Big 12 title game. This put them in line for a Sugar Bowl berth unless Ohio State was chosen instead. After losing to Missouri, Ohio State is the clear choice. Missouri, meanwhile, rises into the BCS bowl equation but along with the Sooners is probably not going to make it. Oklahoma will be a strong candidate to be chosen for the Orange Bowl, but there will be cries a foul play if they are chosen ahead of Missouri who beat them, as well as undefeated TCU who may end up getting the nod. But the Sooners would travel better and money might trump everything.

• Big East still can't field a decent team

West Virginia lost to Syracuse so the Big East's automatic berth goes back to Pittsburgh, who has three losses already, and probably won't be in the final BCS Top 25.

• Wisconsin continues Rose Bowl march, but Michigan State must lose twice

The Badgers barely beat Iowa and are on track to finish 11-1 and go to the Rose Bowl, but they don't control their own destiny. If Michigan State finishes 11-1 or better, the Spartans will very likely be in the Rose Bowl; according to this projection, beating Iowa this weekend puts them in. Their opponent, due to the Rose Bowl's strange stipulation of replacing a team with an automatic non-BCS conference qualifier, would be Boise State. Stanford is in a tough situation. They'd need Boise State to lose, and TCU, and probably Utah, and all would have to fall out of the top 16. They would qualify for a BCS bowl at 10-2, but they might need to be 11-1 to insure a top 12 finish; if they finish 13th the Rose Bowl could choose a team outside the Pac-10. An Oregon loss would also derail those hopes, as the Ducks would fall out of the BCS title game and into the Rose Bowl.

==================================================================

BCS Selection Rules for 2010-11
(simplified; full detail here):

• #1 and #2 teams go into BCS Championship game;

then, if still available:

• Rose Bowl gets Big 10, Pac 10 champs*
• Sugar Bowl gets SEC champ
• Orange Bowl gets ACC champ
• Fiesta Bowl gets Big 12 champ

After these conference winners have been placed, selections will be made in the following order:

• BCS #1 team is replaced*
• BCS #2 team is replaced*
• Sugar Bowl picks its 2nd team
• Orange Bowl picks its 2nd team
• Fiesta Bowl picks its 2nd team

*special Rose Bowl note: In replacing a Big Ten or Pac-10 team that makes the BCS title game, the Rose Bowl will select an automatic non-BCS qualifier.

Automatic qualifiers: All of the BCS conference champs must be selected, along with Notre Dame if in the top 8, any one other non-BCS-conference champ if in the top 12 (or top 16 if ranked ahead of a BCS conference champ), and if still available the #3 and (in many cases) #4 teams in the BCS rankings.

Beyond the automatic qualifiers, the remaining teams are selected "at-large". At-large teams must be selected from those in the top 12.

SportsRatings Top 25 Week 8: Missouri Makes Its Move

Welcome to the SportsRatings College Football Top 25 for the week ending October 23, 2010. This is a subjective ranking, not a computer power rating. It does attempt to use several rules, some of which include honoring head-to-head results whenever possible, and giving more consideration to teams with wins over other top 25 teams.

It's time for all the undefeated teams—there are seven remaining—to be ranked above everyone else. There are no pretenders; every one has either proven itself either a very strong team, or has a good résumé, or both.

If we look at pure performance, apart from quality wins, Oregon, Boise State, TCU, and Utah are performing like top 5 teams, while Missouri is at least top ten. Auburn and Michigan State definitely lag behind. For résumés, no one is close to Auburn, which is why they'll be #1 among the BCS computer composite Sunday night; they have four wins over teams in our Top 25. Oregon, Missouri, and Michigan State also have a win over a 1-loss team.

Oregon and Boise State have been the most dominant teams, and Oregon regains the top spot this week. It wasn't so much their 60-13 crushing of UCLA as Boise's lack of a top 25 win, which at this stage prevents a team from being #1. TCU is playing nearly as well, especially on defense, and actually gains a top 25 win as Baylor joins, but it's not enough to stop Auburn from advancing to #3 from #5. The Tigers have a win over 1-loss LSU, and three wins over 2-loss SEC teams. How good are they really? Pretty much all of those wins have been close, and the Tigers could have been 6-2 or even 4-4 right now. They seem to be getting better each week; as long as they win, they'll stay high in the rankings.

#5 Missouri has made rapid leaps up the rankings as they begin to prove they're for real. First they had some strong performances that showed they were a strong team, and now they have a signature win to back it up. Utah has proven itself like Missouri did, and it's hard to determine whether the Utes or the Tigers are the stronger team, but their schedule has been weak so they're #7, behind #6 Michigan State. The Spartans appear to be the weakest of the undefeated teams but their win over Wisconsin legitimizes them. All three of these teams will be tested in the coming weeks: Missouri against Nebraska, Michigan State against Iowa, and Utah against TCU.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week eight 2010 (thru 10/23/2010)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
2	1	Oregon	7-0	wStanford 52-31
1	2	Boise State	6-0
5	3	Auburn	8-0	wLSU 24-17, SCar 35-27, Ark 65-43, @MissSt 17-14
4	4	TCU	8-0	wBaylor 45-10
11	5	Missouri	7-0	wOklahoma 36-27
7	6	Michigan St	8-0	wWisconsin 34-24, @Nwest 35-27
9	7	Utah	7-0
8	8	Alabama	7-1	L@SC 35-21; w@Ark 24-20
13	9	Wisconsin	7-1	L@MichSt 34-24; wOSU 31-18, @Iowa 31-30
3	10	Oklahoma	6-1	L@Missouri 36-27; wFSU 47-17
6	11	LSU	7-1	L@Auburn 24-17; wMissSt 29-7, WVA 20-14
12	12	Stanford	6-1	L@Oregon 52-31
14	13	Florida St	6-1	L@OK 47-17; w@Miami 45-17
15	14	Ohio State	7-1	L@Wisc 31-18; wMiami 36-24
16	15	Nebraska	6-1	L Texas 20-13; w@OKst 51-41, @KState 48-13
17	16	South Carolina	5-2	L@KY 31-28, @Aub 35-27; wBama 35-21
10	17	Oklahoma St	6-1	L Nebraska 51-41
18	18	Arkansas	5-2	L@Aub 65-43, Bama 24-20
19	19	Miami FL	5-2	L@OSU 36-24, FSU 45-17
21	20	Arizona	6-1	L OregonSt 29-27; wIowa 34-27
22	21	Mississippi St	6-2	L@LSU 29-7, Aub 17-14
25t	22	Nevada	6-1	L@Hawaii 27-21
--	23	Baylor	6-2	L@TTech 45-38, @TCU 45-10; wKState 47-42
24	24	Iowa	5-2	L@Arizona 34-27, Wisc 31-30
20	25t	Kansas St	5-2	L@Baylor 47-42, Nebraska 48-13
--	25t	Syracuse	5-2	L Pitt 45-14, @Wash 41-20; w@WVA 19-14
		out:
23	--	West Virginia	5-2	L Syracuse 19-14, @LSU 20-14
25t	--	Northwestern	5-2	L Purdue 20-17, MSU 35-27

As for the teams with losses, I'm ranking them pretty much by résumé but team strength still holds a bit of sway with the 1-loss teams. Alabama has a win over 2-loss Arkansas and a loss to 2-loss South Carolina, but still gets the nod as the top team with a loss. You could argue that #9 Wisconsin and #10 Oklahoma have better qualifications, as each has lost to an undefeated team and beat a 1-loss team, but Alabama has looked stronger overall. LSU's close loss to Auburn drops them from the top ten, but they remain ahead of Stanford, whose lack of big wins holds them back.

At #13, we put Florida State ahead of Ohio State. This is a good case where pre-season ranking influences the national polls. Each team has a road loss to a top ten team, and the Seminoles' road win over Miami was much more impressive than the Buckeyes' home win. It's true that FSU's loss was more of a beatdown, but the AP, USA, and Harris polls have Ohio State 5-7 spots ahead. The only reason is pre-season ranking; if FSU had started higher, they'd probably still be higher or at least very close.

#15 Nebraska knocked Oklahoma State from the ranks of the unbeaten, but their loss to Texas holds them back. Likewise, South Carolina's loss to Kentucky prevents them from being in the top ten. Arkansas and Miami hold at #18 and #19; both have losses to two teams ranked ahead of them. Arizona slides up to #20, and Mississippi State to #21, with Nevada the lowest-ranked 1-loss team.

It was hard to rank the rest of the 2-loss teams. Baylor gets in by beating Kansas State, but the Wildcats still had one of the better résumés of the 20 or so 2-loss teams, as both losses are to ranked opponents. There aren't many options; nearly all of the 2-loss teams have a poor loss, or a loss to another 2-loss team, and the pecking order leads up to 6-2 Virginia Tech, who lost to I-AA James Madison. So Kansas State remains in for now, as does Iowa, who holds at #24 for their 1-point loss to Wisconsin. And because they beat a ranked team, Syracuse gets to be in the top 25 this week. They earned it, even if their schedule has been a bit laughable. Both Maine and Colgate?

West Virginia falls out for losing to Syracuse, while Northwestern is edged out by their loss to Michigan State. Both are pretty high in the 2-loss-team pecking order and could get back in fairly easily. Other 2-loss teams higher in the "others receiving votes" column include Hawaii (beat Nevada), USC (beat Hawaii, lost to Stanford), Michigan (lost only to Iowa and Michigan State), and San Diego State (lost by 3 to BYU and Missouri). Virginia Tech, too, is on the verge of getting back in, which will help Boise State; with wins over East Carolina and North Carolina State, they could be pushed into the rankings fairly soon.

Projected BCS Rankings For Sunday October 24, 2010: Oregon (or Auburn) is #1

Everyone wants to know the BCS Standings right now!—before the games have been played, before the polls have been released—instead of just waiting a few days/hours until Sunday evening. So  we'll be predicting the results for the coming Sunday, both before and after the weekend's games have been played.

Of course the big news is BCS #1 Oklahoma's loss to Missouri. Other than that not a lot of BCS-busting activity took place. #4 Auburn beat #6 LSU and #13 Wisconsin beat #15 Iowa. #16 Nebraska did beat #14 Oklahoma State, but that's only a small upset in BCS terms and the Cornhuskers were the favorite by the oddsmakers.

Before the weekend this was the scenario that put Auburn on top, just barely ahead of Oregon. Even a huge beatdown of UCLA doesn't help Oregon much since A) the computers don't see the margin of victory, just that they beat a mediocre team, and B) they were already #1 in the polls so even impressing the humans doesn't do much good.

But now that the games have been played, it looks like Oregon might take the top spot instead. It's going to be close. The key might be TCU, who blasted Air Force 38-7; this might be enough for them to hold their spots in the polls (#4 USA, #3 Harris) meaning Auburn will be #3 and #4 instead of #3 in both polls. They'll be #1 in the computer composite but Oregon's lead in the human polls could be too great. Oregon will move up a few notches in the computers and will gain some votes (maybe at idle Boise's expense) due to their 60-13 win. It depends on how voters view Auburn's win, which was less than dominant and at home, but was over a previously undefeated team. I think Cam Newton gained more #1 Heisman votes than Auburn #1 poll votes from the performance.

UPDATE: After I had changed my mind, Auburn did take the top spot after all, as they went to #3 in the Harris Poll. Oregon was #2. Oklahoma edged Wisconsin for #9; and Nebraska was 14th rather than 12th.

Projected BCS top 15 for Sunday, October 24, 2010 (week 9 i.e. BCS week 2):

pre new team         rec  notes
2    1  Oregon       7-0  neck and neck with Auburn for #1
4    2  Auburn       8-0  very close to #1
3    3  Boise St     6-0
5    4  TCU          8-0  close to #3
7    5  Michigan St  8-0  solid #5, close to #4
11   6  Missouri     7-0
8    7  Alabama      7-1 
9    8  Utah         7-0  could be #7
13   9  Wisconsin    7-1 
1    10 Oklahoma     6-1  could be 9th or 11th
10   11 Ohio St      7-1
16   12 Nebraska     6-1
6    13 LSU          7-1  close to #12
12   14 Stanford     6-1
18   15 Arizona      6-1 

Boise State could lose support for being idle while some other top teams did so well; if so, TCU could actually pass them for #3.

Oklahoma and LSU take pretty big falls here, but the field is crowded with 1-loss teams which is what they are now. Utah will be tight with Alabama but probably not pass them; Wisconsin will attempt again to pass Ohio State and this time I think they'll make it. But both are really close to Oklahoma, who may only fall to #9 and push the other teams down. Oklahoma #9, Ohio State #10, Wisconsin #11 is a possibility too, but it appears the Badgers will be ahead of the Buckeyes.

UPDATE: With the coaches poll out (see below), Michigan State appears an even more solid #5 and is closer to #3 and #4 Boise and TCU. Utah has a chance of being #7 ahead of Alabama, but Alabama has a big point lead in the coaches poll and Missouri might be ahead of them in the Harris poll so Alabama is still probably #7.

Oklahoma is also very likely to stay in the top ten. It appears that the voters will move Wisconsin ahead of Ohio State, and with the Sooners remaining ahead of Nebraska and still strong in the computer polls, Ohio State will probably fall a spot to #11. This is the only adjustment I'm making since the AP and coaches poll came out.

The AP and USA results suggest Auburn could be #3 in the Harris poll, which would put them neck and neck with Oregon for #1, but Oregon gained a lot of first-place votes in the coaches poll and should do the same in the Harris, which might keep them ahead of the Tigers.

Here are the assumptions I made regarding the USA (coaches) and Harris polls, which have the majority of effect on the BCS rankings:

USA Today (coaches) poll projection

prev new
1    1 Oregon       7-0
2    2 Boise St     6-0
5    3 Auburn       8-0
4    4 TCU          8-0
7    5 Alabama      7-1  actual: #6
8    6 Michigan St  8-0  actual: #7
9    7 Utah         7-0
16   8 Missouri     7-0
11   9 Wisconsin    7-1
10  10 Ohio St      7-1
13  11 Nebraska     6-1  actual: #12
3   12 Oklahoma     6-1  actual: #11
6   13 LSU          7-1
14  14 Stanford     6-1
17  15 Florida St   6-1

The biggest question here is how far Missouri will rise. There's no guarantee even that they'll rise above Oklahoma, but since they're undefeated it would be odd if they didn't. In most other cases where a victorious team is ranked below the team they beat, both teams have the same record; see Wisconsin and Ohio State. I think the coaches will move Wisconsin ahead of Ohio State for beating Iowa, but that's not a given either after the Buckeyes' strong performance. So I've hedged by keeping Ohio State ahead in the Harris Poll, where their lead was bigger to begin with.

UPDATE: The coaches poll projection was correct except that Michigan State and Alabama were reversed, as well as Nebraska and Oklahoma.

Harris Poll projection

prev new
1    1 Oregon          7-0
2    2 Boise St        6-0
3    3 TCU             8-0
5    4 Auburn          8-0
7    5 Alabama         7-1  probably #6 re: coaches poll/AP
8    6 Michigan St     8-0  probably #5 re: coaches poll/AP
9    7 Utah            7-0
16   8 Missouri        7-0
10   9 Ohio St         7-1  probably #10
11  10 Wisconsin       7-1  probably #9
14  11 Nebraska        6-1  probably #12
4   12 Oklahoma        6-1  probably #11
13  13 Stanford        6-1
6   14 LSU             7-1
18  15 Arizona         6-1

The polls should remain pretty similar to each other. Auburn will probably be higher in the USA poll, Ohio State in the Harris poll; Stanford will hold their spot in both, and either Arizona and Florida State should be #15 in either. After seeing the actual coaches poll and AP, the likely changes above are noted. In addition to MSU and Alabama reversing, and Nebraska and Oklahoma reversing, my hedge of having Ohio State ahead of Wisconsin appears unlikely as both AP and USA put the Badgers in front significantly.

 

Longhorns' up and down season down again; final score: Iowa State 28, Texas 21

Texas' up and down season hit another sour note as they lost at home to the Iowa State Cyclones 28-21.

Texas was overrated in the pre-season; that was pretty certain even before today. Despite losing 4-year starting quarterback Colt McCoy and star receiver Jordan Shipley, they were ranked 5th in the AP and #4 by the coaches. At SportsRatings we were a bit less generous but still had the Longhorns #16.

We felt Texas would be about 9-3, with losses to Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Nebraska; that would mean a 4-3 result at this point in the year. As it turns out, Texas is 4-3 currently, but they didn't take the expected path, and the future is equally uncertain.

After some minor struggles in their first two games the Longhorns beat Texas Tech 24-14 in Lubbock, which seemed to confirm the conventional view that they were at least a top ten team. But in the very next game they were manhandled by UCLA 34-12 at home, casting doubt on their top 25 worthiness. An expected loss to Oklahoma followed and they stood 3-2.

But last week they surprised heavily-favored Nebraska, and suddenly things looked up again. A game ahead of our 9-3 pick, Texas looked like a strong bowl team once again, possibly a BCS bowl team if they won out to 10-2 and got some help (only two teams from each conference can be BCS bowl teams).

Now, after another embarrassing home loss, they're on track for 9-3 if the rest of the season plays out as we originally thought. But given that four of their seven games already have belied our predictions, what does that mean for their remaining five contests?

• Texas hosts Baylor next week and should win at home, but they've lost two in a row at home to teams arguably not as good as the Bears
• They go on the road to Kansas State the week after that; the Wildcats are no pushover at 5-1
• Oklahoma State—undefeated at this juncture—follows, also a home game
• The Longhorns then host Florida Atlantic in what should truly be a breather. But didn't they expect that of Iowa State?
• They close hosting Texas A&M, always a potentially dangerous rival.

In all that's 4 of 5 remaining games at home. So if they can just win at home the season won't be a disaster, but they're only 1-2 at home this season. Given what they've done so far, a 1-4 finish—and a 5-7 record overall, missing a bowl game—isn't inconceivable.

Neither would it be shocking if the Longhorns won out. They'll still be favored in most of those games. But after seeing them get upset twice by mediocre teams, it's hard to have faith. At this point a 4-1 or 3-2 finish seems most likely, a 7 or 8 win season.

One thing's for sure, and that is that Texas is campaigning hard to win the Most Unpredictable Team of the Year Award, joining 2007 UCLA, 2008 Maryland, and 2009's Texas A&M or California for that honor.

BCS Rankings For Sunday October 24, 2010: Pre-weekend projections

Everyone wants to know the BCS Standings right now!—before the games have been played, before the polls have been released—instead of just waiting a few days/hours until Sunday evening. So in addition to our projections of the Final BCS Standings, we'll also be predicting the results for the coming Sunday.

This week there are four games among the top 25 in the BCS leaderboard. At first we'll assume that all the teams ranked higher in the polls (not the BCS) will win this weekend. Since any upset in those games will have a big effect on the standings, we'll also take a look at what happens if the underdogs win, one by one.

Of course, this means that permutations take over and with four games in play, you have 16 different possibilities. We're not going to make 16 different projections; even if we did, one upset in any of the other games would throw things off and they'd all be wrong. At least Oregon has already played, so we don't have to worry about them losing.

Here is the current BCS top 12, from last week, October 17, 2010:

1    Oklahoma       6-0
2    Oregon         6-0
3    Boise State    6-0
4    Auburn         7-0
5    TCU            7-0
6    LSU            7-0
7    Michigan St    7-0
8    Alabama        6-1
9    Utah           6-0
10   Ohio State     6-1
11   Missouri       6-0
12   Stanford       5-1

The big games this week are:

• #1 Oklahoma vs. #11 Missouri
• #4 Auburn vs. #6 LSU
• #13 Wisconsin vs. #15 Iowa
• #14 Oklahoma State vs. #16 Nebraska

Projection A: Favorites (higher-ranked in the polls) win - Oklahoma, Auburn, Wisconsin, Nebraska

prev new
1     1 Oklahoma       7-0
2     2 Oregon         7-0
4     3 Auburn         8-0
3     4 Boise St.      6-0
5     5 TCU            8-0
7     6 Michigan St.   8-0    
8     7 Alabama        7-1
13    8 Wisconsin      7-1 
9     9 Utah           7-0
10   10 Ohio St.       7-1
16   11 Nebraska       6-1
6    12 LSU            7-1
(#11 Missouri, #12 Stanford out)

If all goes as planned there is little change. But LSU's fall will allow other teams to move up, and Wisconsin and Nebraska get boosts for bigger wins. I think if Wisconsin beats Iowa they will jump over Ohio State—whom they beat—in the Coaches and Harris polls.

Boise State is at a disadvantage since they don't play until Tuesday, meaning they won't even get a meager amount of points from the computers; this combined with Auburn beating LSU will move the Tigers to #3 ahead of the Broncos.

Missouri's loss will drop them out of the top 12, and Stanford—who has little to gain with either the humans or computers by playing Washington State—is pushed down a spot and out of the top 12.

Projection B: Missouri upsets Oklahoma (Auburn, Wisconsin, Nebraska win)

prev new
4     1 Auburn        8-0       
2     2 Oregon        7-0       
3     3 Boise St.     6-0   
5     4 TCU           8-0       
7     5 Michigan St.  8-0     
11    6 Missouri      7-0 
8     7 Alabama       7-1
13    8 Wisconsin     7-1  
9     9 Utah          7-0 
1    10 Oklahoma      6-1       
10   11 Ohio St.      7-1 
16   12 Nebraska      6-1 
(#6 LSU, #12 Stanford out)

This might be the most interesting projection: what happens with an Oklahoma loss? If the #1 team falls, Auburn could very well end up #1 in the BCS. It would be very close between Auburn and Oregon, but remember that Oregon has little upside in the human polls (being #1 already in both) and their win over UCLA won't impress the computers all that much (the computers don't see the 60-13 score).

Auburn would jump to #3 in both human polls (they are 5th in both) and to #1 in a majority of the computers. It would be neck and neck with the Ducks but the Tigers might edge them; it could depend on how narrowly they beat LSU, as that would influence the human polls. We'll look later at a scenario that puts the Ducks on top.

Projection C: LSU beats Auburn (Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Nebraska win)

prev new
1     1 Oklahoma      7-0       
2     2 Oregon        7-0       
6     3 LSU           8-0
3     4 Boise St.     6-0   
5     5 TCU           8-0
7     6 Michigan St.  8-0     
8     7 Alabama       7-1     
9     8 Utah          7-0 
13    9 Wisconsin     7-1  
4    10 Auburn        7-1       
10   11 Ohio St.      7-1 
16   12 Nebraska      6-1 
#11 Missouri, #12 Stanford out

So, now you ask, what if Auburn loses? Then they fall to about #10. They'll fall a bit farther in the human polls but the computer ratings will still have them ranked pretty high. LSU, meanwhile, will rise to #3, pushing back Boise State but not challenging for #1. And even if Oklahoma loses, LSU won't be in a position to overtake Oregon. They're a spot further back in the polls so they wouldn't go quite as high as Auburn, and they're already #2 in the computer ratings so they have less upside.

Projection D: Iowa beats Wisconsin (Oklahoma, Auburn, Nebraska win)

prev new
1     1 Oklahoma      7-0       
2     2 Oregon        7-0       
4     3 Auburn        8-0       
3     4 Boise St.     6-0   
5     5 TCU           8-0       
7     6 Michigan St.  8-0     
8     7 Alabama       7-1
9     8 Utah          7-0 
15    9 Iowa          6-1 
16   10 Nebraska      6-1  
6    11 LSU           7-1 
10   12 Ohio St.      7-1  
#11 Missouri, #12 Stanford out

If Iowa beats Wisconsin—which the oddsmakers a predicting anyway—then it's the Hawkeyes instead of the Badgers making a move into the top 10. They won't go quite as high since they won't necessarily pass Ohio State in the human polls. But the Buckeyes will be hurt in the computers if the team they lost to loses, and that could drop them to #12 behind Iowa, Nebraska, and even LSU (the Tigers remain stronger in the computers even with a loss to Auburn).

Projection E: Oklahoma State beats Nebraska (Oklahoma, Auburn, Wisconsin win)

prev new
1     1 Oklahoma      7-0       
2     2 Oregon        7-0    
4     3 Auburn        8-0   
3     4 Boise St.     6-0   
5     5 TCU           8-0       
7     6 Michigan St.  8-0     
8     7 Alabama       7-1
13    8 Wisconsin     7-1
9     9 Utah          8-0 
14   10 Oklahoma St.  7-0     
10   11 Ohio St.      7-1 
6    12 LSU           7-1
#11 Missouri, #12 Stanford out

Above we see Oklahoma State breaking into the big time if they can remain undefeated.

Projection F: Northwestern beats Michigan State (Oklahoma, Auburn, Wisconsin, Nebraska win)

prev new
2     1 Oregon        7-0       
1     2 Oklahoma      7-0       
4     3 Auburn        8-0       
3     4 Boise St.     6-0   
5     5 TCU           8-0       
13    6 Wisconsin     7-1  
9     7 Utah          8-0 
8     8 Alabama       7-1
10    9 Ohio St.      7-1 
16   10 Nebraska      6-1 
6    11 LSU           7-1
7    12 Michigan St.  7-1
#11 Missouri, #12 Stanford out    

Surprisingly, this is the one scenario that probably puts Oregon on top, and it doesn't even require an Oklahoma loss. The reason is that a Michigan State loss would slide Oregon up a spot in the computer rankings but not Oklahoma, who is already on top there. And it wouldn't give Oklahoma any gains in the human polls, either, since Michigan State is below them. Oklahoma might move up from #3 (USA) and #4 (Harris) if they beat Missouri, but it likely won't be enough if Oregon makes extra computer gains.

So there it is. Remember that not only will combinations of these upsets change things (often in odd ways), but that upsets around the country for teams not even in the top 25 of the BCS can change things because of the way the computers work—everything is interconnected. So we'll make another projection once the games have been played. Who sez the BCS is no fun?

Week 8 preview, odds, and predictions: LSU vs. Auburn, Oklahoma vs. Missouri and more

It's another big weekend of college football. Why does this season seems 10 times better than last season? Perhaps because it *is*. There are better games, better matchups, and generally is more excitement this year. It started in the early weeks which didn't have last year's dearth of decent games, and has continued each week. This weekend is not exception, with not one but two battles of undefeated teams.

Last week we noted there were 13 undefeated teams left, and in order to geometrically progress down to 2 by the end of the regular season, three teams would have to lose. Ohio State, Nevada, and Nebraska complied, so now we're down to 10. The formula states that two should lose this week, and we're going out on a limb and saying that's going to happen; of course, it's guaranteed since Auburn and LSU face each other, as do Oklahoma and Missouri.

Here are the week's top games:

Weekend Kickoff: UCLA (3-3) at #2 Oregon (6-0)

Vegas Line/Spread: Oregon by 26 1/2
Strength Power Rating Pick: Oregon (97%) 46-13
Yardage Analysis Score: Oregon 48-21
Comments: Oregon is enjoying their first week ever on top of the AP poll but most host unpredictable UCLA. They're a huge favorite, but I have a hunch the game will be a lot closer than the 25 (now 26 1/2) point spread and certainly the 27 or 33 that our power ratings and yardage stats suggest. It would make sense then to think UCLA is going to score a lot with their pistol running offense, since Oregon has allowed a lot of rushing yards at times. And clearly Oregon is going to score a lot; all projections and predictions seem to give them 40+ points in this game. But I'm going the other way, thinking that tonight will be a battle of stalled offenses, maybe due to turnovers.
Final Prediction: Oregon 13, UCLA 7

SEC East/BCS Title Eliminator: #6 LSU (7-0) at #5 Auburn (7-0)

Vegas Line/Spread: Auburn by 6
Strength Power Rating Pick: Auburn (64%) 34-27
Yardage Analysis Score: Auburn 28-17
Comments: Both of these teams have lived on the edge, scraping by on narrow victories week after week. LSU held on for 6-point wins against North Carolina and West Virginia, got a gift against Tennessee, and won by trick play against Florida. Auburn held off Mississippi State by 3, Clemson by 3 in overtime, South Carolina by 8, and Kentucky by 3. One team's luck will run out, and I think it's LSU's time. Auburn is a better team and they're playing at home. Their offense is sound with Cam Newton running (literally) the show, while LSU has their usual quarterback consistency issues. Don't expect a repeat of last week's insane Auburn-Arkansas shootout, as LSU also has its typical strong defense. Both the spread and the Strength Power rating favor Auburn by about a touchdown, but the yardage analysis prediction looks about right to me.
Final Prediction: Auburn 27, LSU 17

Big Twelve Game of the Week: #3 Oklahoma (6-0) at #11 Missouri (6-0)

Vegas Line/Spread: Oklahoma by 3
Strength Power Rating Pick: Missouri (59%) 29-25
Yardage Analysis Score: Missouri 41-34
Comments: Missouri's been racking up some strong performances lately and they rank ahead of the Sooners in our power ratings. Plus they're at home. That should make for an easy prediction, but when psychology enters then the Sooners get a bonus. It's one reason why the spread favors Oklahoma. Missouri can't seem to get over the hump against Oklahoma, last winning in 1998 when the Sooners went 5-6. Missouri has also faced a relatively weak schedule so far; Illinois and San Diego State are outperforming lately, but aren't top 10 teams. The one nick against Oklahoma is that they ended up #1 in the BCS rankings, but I doubt that will have a big effect. An interesting contest; this could very well be the game where Missouri makes itself known among the national title contenders and Oklahoma is exposed after many close calls. But I think it will be another close Sooner win.
Final Prediction: Oklahoma 29, Missouri 26

Big Twelve Game of the Week Runner-up: #16 Nebraska (5-1) at #10 Oklahoma State (6-0)

Vegas Line/Spread: Nebraska by 5 1/2
Strength Power Rating Pick: Oklahoma State (51%) 36-35
Yardage Analysis Score: Nebraska 41, Oklahoma State 32
Comments: Normally I would pick Nebraska in this game, easy. But after the Texas loss I'm not sure. It's not how Nebraska played—catch a few passes here and there and they win pretty easily, and every team has an 'off' game—but how they've reacted, or more specifically, the fans. Players were essentially heckled for the dropped balls and other mistakes, and the team can't have very good morale right now. Who knows how it works itself out; they might take it out on the Cowboys. Being on the road might actually help the situation, too. If they were at home I think I'd take the upset for sure. Self-doubt is not good for a team, and Taylor Martinez can't feel good about being pulled. How he reacts is paramount, and he is only a freshman after all. Nebraska has the #1 pass defense, but last year they were bombed by Texas Tech so Brandon Weedon could have success hooking up with Justin Blackmon, and Kendall Hunter might run as well as Gilbert Garrett did last week.
Final Prediction: Oklahoma State 35, Nebraska 31

Big Ten Game Where an Upset Would Shock: #7 Michigan State (7-0) at #25 Northwestern (5-1) 

Vegas Line/Spread: Michigan State by 5
Strength Power Rating Pick: Michigan State (84%) 28-15
Yardage Analysis Score: Michigan State 35-26
Comments: Northwestern is not a very good team, really, but they're 5-1 and they tend to play to the level of their competition, meaning Michigan State can't relax at all when traveling to Evansville. Not that they would anyway; they've been on a mission since Mark Dantonio had his heart attack. And they'll keep moving forward, getting wins until they meet a team better than they are. That will probably (though not certainly) be Iowa, and if it isn't, they could end up undefeated.
Final Prediction: Michigan State 30, Northwestern 17

Big Ten Game Where An Upset Would Not Shock: #13 Wisconsin (6-1) at #24 Iowa (5-1)

Vegas Line/Spread: Iowa by 6
Strength Power Rating Pick: Iowa (63%) 28-23
Yardage Analysis Score: Iowa 23-20
Comments: An upset wouldn't be a surprise here, mostly because it's hard to tell what constitutes an upset. An Iowa win? They're favored by the oddsmakers and are playing at home. A Wisconsin win? They just knocked off Ohio State. But certainly the idea of the "letdown" is in play, and going from beating the #1 team at home to playing a ranked team on the road is a trap. Iowa has played only one bad half this season (the first half in the loss to Arizona) and is showing few weaknesses on offense or defense. Speaking of which, they have the top rushing defense in the country, bad news for John Clay and company. Iowa controls the Big Ten race, hosting Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State over the next three weeks, and week one at least goes to the Hawkeyes.
Final Prediction: Iowa 30, Wisconsin 24

Mountain West Ground-Game-Grinder: Air Force (5-2) at #4 TCU (7-0) 

Vegas Line/Spread: TCU by 18 1/2
Strength Power Rating Pick: TCU (88%) 39-20
Yardage Analysis Score: TCU 33-14
Comments: Knowing how close (20-17) Air Force played TCU last year—when the Horned Frogs were every bit as dominant as this season—I was surprised to see such a huge spread. Then I calculated the projected scores by the Strength power rating and via yardage analysis and got 19 points each time. So on paper it makes sense that TCU is a near-20 point favorite. And last year's game was in Colorado Springs; playing at home two years ago TCU won 44-10. Air Force's rushing defense has been terrible this year, not good for a team playing the Frogs. But I still think this will be a relatively close game; maybe not as close as the Falcons gave Oklahoma, but not a walkover.
Final Prediction: TCU 34, Air Force 24

Mountain West Snoozer: Colorado State (2-5) at #9 Utah (6-0)

Vegas Line/Spread: Utah by 30 1/2
Strength Power Rating Pick: Utah (95%) 47-14
Yardage Analysis Score: Utah 31-20
Comments: Utah has another practical bye this week. The Utes really have a pretty easy schedule; there are no big names on it other than TCU (and perhaps Air Force) as their opening week, overtime win against Pitt looks less impressive by the day. Against the likes of UNLV, New Mexico, San Jose State, Iowa State, and Wyoming, they've looked good, and will continue to do so until they meet a decent foe.
Final Prediction: Utah 35, Colorado State 14

 

2010 Projected Final BCS Standings (post-week 7): Oregon vs. Alabama in title game

This year we are projecting the Final (pre-bowl) BCS Standings each week, based on our pre-season standings and using the projected winner from each game. Every week these projections will be updated using the actual results for that week. For the most recent projection click here.

Here is the projection using our pre-season prognostications combined with results through week 7:

2010 Projected Final BCS Rankings  - post-week 7
lw	#	Team	record	BCS Bowl	Current BCS #
2	1	Oregon	12-0	Title game	2
3	2	Alabama	12-1	Title game	8
4	3	Boise St	12-0	Rose	3
1	4	Nebraska	12-1	Fiesta	16
7	5	Oklahoma	12-1	Orange	1
5	6	TCU	12-0		5
11	7	Auburn	11-1	Sugar	4
8	8	Wisconsin	11-1	Rose	13
9	9	Ohio State	11-1	Sugar	10
21	10	Texas	10-2		19
12	11	Stanford	10-2		12
6	12	Arkansas	10-2		23
10	13	Virginia Tech	11-2	Orange	25
13	14	Michigan St	10-2		7
16	15	Iowa	9-3		15
14	16	South Carolina	7-5		21
17	17	LSU	9-3		6
18	18	Utah	10-2		9
15	19	Florida	9-4		--
19	20	Miami FL	9-3		--
20	21	Florida St	9-4		17
22	22	Arizona	8-4		18
23	23	Washington	8-4		--
--	24	Missouri	9-3		11
--	25	Oregon St	7-5		--

(#24 Texas Tech and #25 Clemson dropped out)

Using this projection, we get the following probable bowl pairings (favorites in green):

BCS Championship Game: Oregon vs. Alabama
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Boise State
Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska vs. West Virginia (#32 in rankings) 

This week's notes:

• Ohio State's loss changed nothing, but Nebraska's did

Since the Ohio State upset was predicted, the Buckeyes remain #9 and out of the national title race and Wisconsin remains Rose Bowl representative. They need Michigan State to drop two games as projected, however, or the Spartans will go. The Big Ten could end up with four one-loss teams, where Iowa beats MSU who beat Wisconsin who beat Ohio State who beats Iowa. Iowa would be left out due to their loss to Arizona and the highest-ranked in the BCS standings would be the Rose Bowl rep. If it looks like that might happen I'll run that simulation, but the polls would be hard to predict.

Nebraska's loss knocks them out of national title contention even if they win out and beat an undefeated Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game, which is still what is projected to happen. The margin is very slim and could flip to Oklahoma, which would make the Sooners undefeated and put them in ahead of Alabama. So Oklahoma can still be national champs by winning out, unlike Nebraska.

Texas' win also made the Longhorns suddenly relevant in the BCS, but not unless the one of the other teams loses a few more, since only two teams from a conference can be selected.

• Boise State up to #3, TCU hurt by Air Force's loss

Boise State is once again up to #3, still below a 1-loss Alabama and potentially jumped by any other teams that remain undefeated by aren't projected to be. They certainly weren't helped by Nevada's loss to Hawaii, but TCU—right behind them last week—was hurt by Air Force's unexpected loss to San Diego State, which reduced the value of their (future) win over the Falcons.

Boise State still appears to be a lock for a BCS bowl, and as the automatic qualifier they'd go to the Rose Bowl—since Oregon is taken by the title game. TCU still appears to be outside, looking in on any BCS bowl.

• Auburn solidifies BCS bowl chances

By knocking off Arkansas—and with Alabama rising to the title game—Auburn would be the logical "replacement" for the Sugar Bowl. Of course if they beat Alabama (and LSU and the other SEC teams they're projected to beat) they would go to the SEC title game and with a win would be in the national championship game. LSU controls their destiny in the same way but is projected to have three losses, including one to Auburn.

Alabama is the projected SEC West representative, and Florida is still the rep from the East, as no other team seems to want that distinction. There is clearly a power imbalance in the SEC this year.

The Sugar Bowl opponent would be chosen from Oklahoma and Ohio State; if the Sooners do run the table and lose by a point or so to Nebraska, they'd still be the higher-rated team, and the probable choice. But the Sugar Bowl might opt for the Buckeyes, leaving Oklahoma to the Orange which used to be the Big 12's normal bowl. If TCU is selected, though, the Buckeyes could be out of the BCS equation for the first time since 2004.

• Big East and ACC's woes continue

The Big East's top rep continues to be West Virginia at #32, ending up in the Fiesta Bowl since they choose last. Virginia Tech drops a few spots this week (along with Miami, FSU, and Clemson) because of North Carolina's State's loss to East Carolina but still gets the ACC title and Orange Bowl bid.

• Missouri and Oregon State debut

Texas Tech and Clemson fell out; the Red Raiders for losing to Oklahoma State, and Clemson despite winning 31-7. The Tigers were supposed to win anyway, and N.C. State's non-conference loss hurt them. Replacing them are Missouri and Oregon State. Missouri won the first game they weren't projected to by beating Texas A&M; Oregon State lost, but that was already accounted for and they were #26 last week.

==================================================================

BCS Selection Rules for 2010-11
(simplified; full detail here):

• #1 and #2 teams go into BCS Championship game;

then, if still available:

• Rose Bowl gets Big 10, Pac 10 champs*
• Sugar Bowl gets SEC champ
• Orange Bowl gets ACC champ
• Fiesta Bowl gets Big 12 champ

After these conference winners have been placed, selections will be made in the following order:

• BCS #1 team is replaced*
• BCS #2 team is replaced*
• Sugar Bowl picks its 2nd team
• Orange Bowl picks its 2nd team
• Fiesta Bowl picks its 2nd team

*special Rose Bowl note: In replacing a Big Ten or Pac-10 team that makes the BCS title game, the Rose Bowl will select an automatic non-BCS qualifier.

Beyond the automatic qualifiers, the remaining teams are selected "at-large". At-large teams must be selected from those in the top 12.

Heisman Trophy week 7: Many candidates harmed last weekend

It was a bad weekend for Heisman candidates. Two of the very top contenders suffered losses and two lesser contenders had poor games, while another two hoping to become contenders can probably be written off from making our short-list. Three of the four didn't finish the game they started.

Denard Robinson has led our list since the first week but as his team's losses mount and he continues to suffer minor injuries he may no longer be "the man." There's a lot of season left and he has as good of a chance as anyone, but the race is pretty wide open now. He played pretty well against Iowa, rushing for 105 yards and completing 13 of 18 passes, but he missed most of the second half with injury.

Tyrelle Pryor was hot and cold as Ohio State lost to Wisconsin. At times he ran well and made good throws and showed leadership; at other times he seemed half-hearted and completed only 14 of 28 passes. Bottom line: he couldn't lead his team to victory, and with the loss he's no longer the "best player on the best team" candidate.

It was even a worse week for Taylor Martinez and Ryan Mallet, two quarterbacks who were moving up in perception. Martinez followed his 241 yard rushing performance against Kansas State with a 21-yard total and 4 of 12 passing against Texas, and he was replaced in the second half. Arkansas' Mallet did well early against Auburn but was hurt, and his replacement threw four touchdown passes in a losing effort. Both are probably out of the race for good. Trophy winners rarely get pulled, and if your backup plays as well as you that leads to the "system" tag.

This week's list, in rough order (click here for the most recent update):

• Kellen Moore, Junior, QB Boise State [added week two]
  105-151 (69.5%) 1567yd 16TD 1int;  8rsh -11yd (-1 av) 0TD 1fmb
• Denard Robinson, Soph, QB Michigan [added week one]
  97-143  (67.8%) 1319yd  9TD 5int; 137rsh 1096yd (8.0av) 9TD 1fmb
• Terrelle Pryor, Junior, QB Ohio State [added week three]
  118-181 (65.2%) 1505yd 15TD 4int; 75rsh 410yd (5.5av) 3TD 0fmb; 1TD rec
  
• LaMichael James, Soph, RB Oregon [added week five]
  114rsh 848yd (8.3av) 9TD 3fmb; 3rec 96yd 1TD
• Cam Newton, Junior, QB Auburn [added week six]
  80-122 (65.6%) 1278yd 13TD 5int; 129rsh 860yd (6.7av) 12TD 0fmb
• Colin Kaepernick, Senior, QB Nevada [added week four]
  120-176 (68.2%) 1480yd  10TD 5int; 97rsh 669yd (6.9av) 12TD 3fmb 
• Mark Ingram, Junior, RB Alabama [added pre-season]
  71rsh 456yd (6.4av) 6TD 0fmb; 12rec 69yd 0TD
• Justin Blackmon, Soph, WR Oklahoma State [added week seven]
  57rec 955yd 12TD 0fmb; 3rsh 8yds (2.3av) 0TD; 1 TD block return
  

Our longshot candidate, Colin Kaepernick, had a terrible game, too, with just 30 yards rushing, two interceptions, and two fumbles as Nevada lost to Hawaii. Alabama beat Mississippi but Mark Ingram had another ho-hum game with just 60 yards. Oregon's LaMichael James is probably lucky the Ducks had an idle week.

The only players who had great games were Boise State's Kellen Moore and, particularly, Auburn's Cameron Newton. Moore completed 14 of 16 passes for two touchdowns and is now as much of a front-runner as anyone. Newton put on a show against Arkansas, rushing for 188 yards and three touchdowns and throwing for another. A strong performance in a win against undefeated LSU next week would seal his status as a front-runner, if he's not there already.

Who to add this week? Andrew Luck of Stanford has been hanging around a long time, waiting to be added. Stanford was idle this week so I'm going to wait a bit. Also, the Cardinal have a loss and there are candidates on undefeated teams to look at. Oklahoma has Landry Jones, DeMarco Murray, and Ryan Broyles, but none is quite the most dynamic at their position yet. TCU's Andy Dalton has been a bit erratic but a strong performance against Utah could boost him. LSU's Patrick Peterson is fading as a possible longshot defensive/return candidate. Michigan State doesn't really have any standouts, though QB Kirk Cousins would probably be the one, unless linebacker Greg Jones becomes this year's pet defensive star. Utah has two decent quarterbacks, neither of whom will get consideration. Missouri's Blaine Gabbert is a possibility but isn't ahead of Stanford's Luck unless they beat Oklahoma next week.

That leaves Oklahoma State. Quarterback Brandon Weeden has shined at times but already has 8 interceptions. Running back Kendall Hunter is among the nation's leading rushers. But it's receiver Justin Blackmon that's dominating at his position. Blackmon has over 100 receiving yards in every game so far this year, and had 190 and 207 in his last two games. He's averaging a whopping 159 yards per game, and has 12 touchdown receptions. We don't have a receiver on the list yet, either, and he's shown he's certainly among the best in the country. He also returned a teammate's blocked punt for a touchdown.

SportsRatings Top 25 Week 7: Big Changes, But Not At Top

Welcome to the SportsRatings College Football Top 25 for the week ending October 16, 2010. This is a subjective ranking, not a computer power rating. It does attempt to use several rules some of which include honoring head-to-head results whenever possible, and giving more consideration to teams with wins over other top 25 teams.

Ohio State's loss to Wisconsin doesn't shake up the top of our Top 25 the way it will the other polls, as we had the Buckeyes at #6 last week. More self-patting on back: we picked the Wisconsin upset at the beginning of the year and stuck with it last week, coming within a few points of the final score (30-17 vs. 31-18). And finally, we were right about 3 undefeated teams losing last week and picked two of them: Ohio State and Nevada. We chose Missouri to lose rather than Nebraska; the Tigers won easily while the Cornhuskers looked hapless against Texas.

All of that leaves Boise State at #1, but it's tentative: the Broncos won 48-0 Saturday but lost their top 25 win as Oregon State falls out. Oregon was idle and remains #2, but Oklahoma slides up to #3 after beating Iowa State 52-0. The Sooners lose one of their top 25 wins with Air Force's loss, but their résumé is sufficiently better than TCU's. The #4 Horned Frogs are still rolling along, especially on defense where they've given up just three points total in the last three games.

Then come the changes, as teams move up to fill the void from Nebraska and Ohio State. Auburn rallied to crush Arkansas and now has three top 25 wins, albeit over 2-loss teams. They move up to #5, followed by LSU who also has a strong résumé; Auburn and LSU face each other next week in a battle of unbeaten SEC teams. Michigan State leaps from #13 to #7 to ensure that all undefeated teams who have a top 25 win are grouped at the top. Alabama follows as the top-ranked 1-loss team. The three remaining undefeated teams—Utah, Oklahoma State, and Missouri—follow at #9 thru #11, while idle Stanford remains #12.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week seven 2010 (thru 10/16/2010)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Boise State	6-0	w@OregonSt 37-24
2	2	Oregon	6-0	wStanford 52-31
4	3	Oklahoma	6-0	wFSU 47-17, AirForce 27-24
3	4	TCU	7-0	wOregonSt 30-21
7	5	Auburn	7-0	wSCar 35-27, Ark 65-43, @MissSt 17-14
8	6	LSU	7-0	wMissSt 29-7, WVA 20-14, @FLA 33-29
13	7	Michigan St	7-0	wWisconsin 34-24
10	8	Alabama	6-1	L@SC 35-21; w@Ark 24-20, FLA 31-6
14	9	Utah	6-0
15	10	Oklahoma St	6-0
19	11	Missouri	6-0
12	12	Stanford	5-1	L@Oregon 52-31
20	13	Wisconsin	6-1	L@MichSt 34-24; wOSU 31-18
16	14	Florida St	6-1	L@OK 47-17; w@Miami 45-17
6	15	Ohio State	6-1	L@Wisc 31-18; wMiami 36-24
5	16	Nebraska	5-1	L Texas 20-13; w@KState 48-13
9	17	South Carolina	4-2	L@KY 31-28, @Aub 35-27; wBama 35-21
11	18	Arkansas	4-2	L@Aub 65-43, Bama 24-20
22	19	Miami FL	4-2	L@OSU 36-24, FSU 45-17
23	20	Kansas St	5-1	L Nebraska 48-13
25	21	Arizona	5-1	L OregonSt 29-27; wIowa 34-27
--	22	Mississippi St	5-2	L@LSU 29-7, Aub 17-14; w@FLA 10-7
--	23	West Virginia	5-1	L@LSU 20-14
--	24	Iowa	5-1	L@Arizona 34-27
18	25t	Nevada	6-1	L@Hawaii 27-21
--	25t	Northwestern	5-1	L Purdue 20-17
		out:
17	--	Air Force	5-2	L@OK 27-24, @SDSU 27-25
21	--	Florida	4-3	L MissSt 10-7, @Bama 31-6, LSU 33-29
24	--	Oregon St	3-3	L@Wash 35-34ot, @TCU 30-21, Boise 37-24; w@Az 29-2

Wisconsin leaps from #20 to #13 with their big win, moving ahead of Ohio State (naturally; we'll see if the other polls do this or not) who falls 9 spots to #15. Florida State is just ahead at #14, and just behind is Nebraska, who falls 11 spots to #16.

Two  SEC teams, South Carolina and Arkansas, suffer their second losses and drop to #17 and #18. The Gamecocks are cushioned by their win over Alabama, while Arkansas, like #19 Miami, has fallen only to ranked teams. #20 Kansas State beat rival Kansas 59-7 last Thursday.

Arizona moves up to #21; their loss to Oregon State became more of a liability but their win over Iowa is a plus as the Hawkeyes finally move back in at #24. Mississippi State—who has lost only to undefeated LSU and Auburn—enters after knocking off Florida. All of the one-loss teams are now in the top 25 as West Virginia (5-1, only loss to LSU) appears for the first time this year at #23 and 5-1 Northwestern joins freshly-defeated Nevada in a tie at #25.

Dropped out: Air Force's 2nd loss knocked them out, as they'd have to be ranked behind San Diego State. The Aztecs are 4-2 and lost to undefeated Missouri and 2-5 BYU, both by three points; they may find themselves ranked in the next few weeks. Florida's third loss displaced them, and the same fate befell Oregon State who lost at Washington in double overtime.

Other two-loss teams with wins over top 25 teams included Texas, Hawaii, and Purdue. The Longhorns losses are to Oklahoma and UCLA; Hawaii fell to 5-2 USC and 3-3 Colorado; Purdue lost to Notre Dame and Toledo, both 4-3.

The coming week features a lot of great games, as seems par for this year. They include:

• #6 LSU at #5 Auburn
• #3 Oklahoma at #11 Missouri
• #7 Michigan State at #25 Northwestern
• #16 Nebraska at #10 Oklahoma State
• #13 Wisconsin at #24 Iowa

Great SEC Defense on Display? Auburn 65, Arkansas 43

Just a few years ago when SEC games routinely ended 6-3 or 7-6, the hue and cry was that the SEC had "great defenses" unlike those on the West coast. If Pac-10 and WAC teams tried to play offense against the SEC, they'd be shut down instead of scoring 40+ points against terrible defenses.

Fast forward to 2008 or so when the wide open, pass-oriented offenses that those teams in the west espoused had made their way to almost every conference. Suddenly those same great SEC defenses were giving up 30+ points routinely, and were exposed as being not fundamentally different than defenses from any other conference.

As if it needed more confirmation, Auburn and Arkansas racked up 108 points between them, with the Tigers pulling away in the fourth quarter to win 65-43.

Auburn led 27-21 at the half after Razorback QB Ryan Mallet left the game with a head injury. His backup, Tyler Wilson, didn't miss a beat and threw four touchdown passes. Meanwhile Cam Newton kept scoring with his feet. Arkansas led 43-37 early in the fourth quarter.

Then Auburn exploded for 28 points: a Cam Newton TD pass; a fumble return for a touchdown; a Cam Newton TD run; and a 38 yard Micheal Dyer run to top it off.

Under Gene Chizik, #7 Auburn has embraced the spread and with running quarterback Newton, he has their offense scoring points in a manner unheard of under Tommy Tuberville. They are now 7-0 and a major player in the SEC—and potentially the national title race.

#11 Arkansas falls to 4-2. Their promising season has lost a lot of its luster, as has Mallet's Heisman once-thriving Heisman candidacy. Cam Newton's, however, is gaining momentum along with his team's success.

Texas Stuns Nebraska in Lincoln 20-13

Texas made a big stride toward keeping their season relevant as they beat Nebraska in Lincoln, 20-13, severely damaging the #5 Cornhuskers' national title hopes.

Taylor Martinez was ineffective both throwing and running while Texas QB Garrett Gilbert was the one shining on the ground. Gilbert ran for two touchdowns and set up a field goal with runs as the Longhorns took a 17-3 lead.

Zac Lee took over for Nebraska but dropped passes doomed the Cornhuskers. Only a 95-yard punt return by Eric Hagg kept the game close at the end, but Nebraska's onside kick attempt was unsuccessful and Texas ran out the clock.

Texas rises to 4-2, with losses to UCLA and Oklahoma. Nebraska falls to 5-1.

BCS Rankings For Sunday October 17: Projections - Oklahoma #1

Everyone wants to know the BCS Standings right now!—before the games have been played, before the polls have been released—instead of just waiting a few hours until Sunday evening. So in addition to our projections of the Final BCS Standings, we'll also be predicting the results for the coming Sunday.

To do this requires picking the game results, projecting the Coaches' and Harris polls, and figuring out in general what the computer polls will look like. The latter is what most people are puzzled by, but since it's only 1/3 of the formula it's actually a lot less important than people think.

Because upsets can change everything, I'm going to assume no upsets among the top teams, which leads to minimal change in the polls. The computer rankings move a lot even without upsets, though, particularly at this stage of the season.

We'll update the predictions after the weekend's games have been played, and again after the polls are released. Later in the afternoon most of the computer rankings are available and it's a fairly simple process to apply the actual BCS formula.

• BCS Projection A: Before 10/16 games - assumes all ranked teams win:

  1. Ohio State                  7-0  
  2. Boise St                    6-0  
  3. Oregon                      6-0  
  4. Oklahoma                    6-0  
  5. Auburn                      7-0  
  6. TCU                         7-0  
  7. Nebraska                    6-0  
  8. LSU                         7-0  
  9. Michigan St                 7-0  
 10. Alabama                     6-1  
 11. Utah                        6-0  
 12. South Carolina              5-1  

Notes: The talk has been about Ohio State and how low they'll be in the BCS. I don't think that will be the case after the weekend. They're #1 in both polls, and a win over Wisconsin would boost them in the computers, which is where they've been lagging. The other topic has been Boise State and how high they will be when the BCS comes out, and that one is true.

The computers will like Auburn a lot if they beat Arkansas, with Oklahoma and LSU also ranked high. But Ohio State will be high enough in the computers to be among the highest-ranked team overall.

• BCS Projection B: After 10/16 games, before polls released: 

 1. Oklahoma                     6-0
 2. Oregon                       6-0
 3. Boise St.                    6-0
 4. TCU                          7-0
 5. Auburn                       7-0
 6. LSU                          7-0
 7. Michigan St.                 7-0
 8. Alabama                      6-1
 9. Utah                         6-0
10. Ohio St.                     6-1
11. Wisconsin                    6-1
12. Stanford                     5-1

Ok, obviously a lot changed on Saturday. It's going to be really tight between the top three. Oklahoma was really helped by Texas' win over Nebraska, but they still have to pass TCU in at least one of the human polls (I think they will in the Coaches poll). Even then, Oregon or Boise could be #1. Boise State was hurt by Oregon State's loss. So was TCU, but Auburn was hurt more by South Carolina's loss so the Horned Frogs might take the #4 spot. TCU and Auburn are in a dead heat for that spot. LSU and Michigan State are tight for the #6 spot, as are Alabama and Utah for #8. Wisconsin is in a dead heat with Ohio State, ironically, for #10 with Stanford a pretty solid #12.

• BCS Projection C: After 10/16 games, after Coaches poll released:

 1. Oklahoma                     6-0
 2. Oregon                       6-0
 3. Boise St.                    6-0
 4. TCU                          7-0
 5. Auburn                       7-0
 6. LSU                          7-0
 7. Michigan St.                 7-0
 8. Alabama                      6-1
 9. Utah                         6-0
10. Wisconsin                    6-1
11. Ohio St.                     6-1
12. Stanford                     5-1

Ok apparently the Harris poll isn't coming out any time soon, probably not before the "BCS countdown" so I'll do without it. There isn't much change, or much more of a clue between the teams that are close.

It's looking like Wisconsin *will* be ahead of Ohio State in the first BCS, or is more likely as the Buckeyes fell a spot further in the Coaches poll than I thought. They're still a place ahead of the Badgers, but the computers should push Wisconsin ahead narrowly. It still appears that Oklahoma will be on top, with Oregon and Boise very close for #2.

• Actual BCS Standings for FBS Week 7 (BCS Week 1):

 1. Oklahoma     6-0  .9215
 2. Oregon       6-0  .8921
 3. Boise St.    6-0  .8898
 4. Auburn       7-0  .8641
 5. TCU          7-0  .8573
 6. LSU          7-0  .8245
 7. Michigan St. 7-0  .7628
 8. Alabama      6-1  .6654
 9. Utah         6-0  .6540
10. Ohio State   6-1  .5726
11. Missouri     6-0  .5491
12. Stanford     5-1  .5374

Well we got the top three right, which is better than most other places I saw that projected it. As expected Oregon and Boise were very close, as were Auburn and TCU, though we had the latter two flipped. Other than that we were essentially on the mark, with the exception of Wisconsin. Substitute Missouri for Wisconsin in our 2nd projection and there it is. The computers weren't far off from where I thought on Missouri but Wisconsin was several spots lower.

Next week I'll include USA and Harris poll projection breakouts, as I was pretty much spot on with those as well.

Week 7 preview, odds, and predictions: 13 undefeated teams left, 12 in action

Going into week 7 of the college football season there are 13 undefeated teams; 12 of them play this weekend. None play against each other, so it's possible that after Saturday the only undefeated team will be Oregon who is idle!

But that's not very likely. Most of the teams do take on decent competition, however, with five teams facing opponents that have 2 losses on the season. A couple face ranked opponents. On the other end of the spectrum, Boise State visits 1-5 San Jose State while LSU tackles I-AA McNeese State.

If the number of undefeated teams follows a steady progression down to two or so by the end of the regular season (which is normal for the last decade despite two years with 5 each), then about three teams should lose this week. Who will fall on Saturday?

Here are the week's 12 active undefeated teams, starting with the six who could lose:

• Battle for the Roses: #6 Ohio State (6-0) at #20 Wisconsin (5-1)
  Vegas Line/Spread: Ohio State by 4
  Strength Power Rating Pick: Ohio State (78.4%) 35-25
  Yardage Analysis Score: Ohio State 28-16
  Comments: This one is for the Roses—or at least it looked like it pre-season. We saw this as the key battle that might put Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl. But the Badgers messed up against Michigan State, putting the Spartans in the mix (Ohio State and Michigan State don't play). Iowa controls their own destiny, too. But by our current projections this one is still the key game, and whoever wins should be in. Objectively the Badgers haven't been great this year and the Buckeyes are the better team. But Ohio State has its up games and its down games, and if they hit a "down" one Wisconsin could win at home. Let's make the Big Ten race interesting, shall we?
  Final Prediction: Wisconsin 30, Ohio State 17
  
  
• SEC West Playoff: #11 Arkansas (4-1) at #7 Auburn (6-0)
  Vegas Line/Spread: Auburn by 3 1/2
  Strength Power Rating Pick: Auburn (56.9%) 27-25
  Yardage Analysis Score: Arkansas 35-31
  Comments: Auburn's been living on the edge since the second week of the season. They held off Mississippi State 17-14, then edged Clemson in overtime 27-24. The Tigers had to come back against South Carolina 35-27 and beat Kentucky with a last-second field goal. The odds of this team going undefeated are very slim, though in that sense they are looking like Ohio State's 2002 squad. This game is one of their toughest remaining, and I'm torn between the Tigers winning another close one at home or losing their perfect record. Arkansas needs to win this one to remain relevant in the SEC race, but psychology is probably in Auburn's favor.
  Final Prediction: Auburn 28, Arkansas 27
  
  
• Big Ten Surprises: Illinois (3-2) at #13 Michigan State (6-0)
  Vegas Line/Spread: Michigan State by 7
  Strength Power Rating Pick: Michigan State (57.3%) 22-20
  Yardage Analysis Score: Michigan State 24-21
  Comments: Both these teams are surprises. Illinois dominated Penn State 33-13 last week and has only lost to two undefeated teams—Ohio State and Missouri. Meanwhile Michigan State is 6-0 and if they're not in the Big Ten driver's seat they're at least in the passenger seat; they don't play Ohio State so even going 8-0 in conference won't guarantee a Big Ten title. They'd still make the Rose Bowl, though, as an undefeated Ohio State would be in the national championship game. The Spartans really started playing well after the Notre Dame win and coach Mark Dantonio's heart attack. With the coach back and healthy, will their emotional edge let up? I think it's inevitable, particularly after the big Michigan win. It could happen at any time, but I'll give them at least one more week since they're playing at home.
  Final Prediction: Michigan State 24, Illinois 20
  
  
• Big Twelve Shootout: #15 Oklahoma State (5-0) at Texas Tech (3-2)
  Vegas Line/Spread: Texas Tech by 3 (over/under 69)
  Strength Power Rating Pick: Oklahoma State (80.2%) 57-43
  Yardage Analysis Score: Oklahoma State 51-38
  Comments: All indications for this game are for a high score. Maybe not the 100 points the Strength Power rating foresees, or even the 89 that the yardage numbers signal, but this could look like Texas Tech's game against Baylor last weekend and the over/under seems low. As to who wins, that's a crapshoot. Interestingly the oddsmakers favor Texas Tech. They're at home but their defense hasn't been able to stop anyone this year, and Oklahoma State has a multi-dimensional offense with Brandon Weeden and Kendall Hunter.
  Final Prediction: Oklahoma State 42, Texas Tech 34
  
  
• The Run vs. The Pass: #18 Nevada (6-0) at Hawaii (4-2)
  Vegas Line/Spread: Nevada by 6 1/2
  Strength Power Rating Pick: Nevada (67.0%) 47-37
  Yardage Analysis Score: Nevada 55-45
  Comments: Nevada is #2 in adjusted rushing yardage while Hawaii is #1 in passing yards. This one should be a shootout of a different kind, with one team running the ball. Hawaii just beat Fresno State and is always a tough road game. Nevada will have trouble with Hawaii's passing game but they can pass, too, if necessary so falling behind doesn't mean they are lost despite their run-oriented offense. The last time Nevada played in Hawaii they were crushed by SMU 45-10 as the Mustangs passed all over them and the Wolf Pack couldn't get their ground game moving. Vai Taua didn't play in that game, though, and Nevada's pass defense is better this year. Still, don't be surprised if you wake up Sunday morning and see that the Warriors pulled off the upset. Since I need to pick three upsets, this will be one of them, despite both projections calling for a 10 point Nevada win.
  Final Prediction: Hawaii 42, Nevada 37
  
  
• Big Twelve Shootout #2: #19 Missouri (5-0) at Texas A&M (3-2)
  Vegas Line/Spread: Missouri by 3 1/2
  Strength Power Rating Pick: Texas A&M (49.44%) 27-24 OT
  Yardage Analysis Score: Texas A&M 34-17
  Comments: Missouri has quietly gone 5-0 now, the last win being a 26-0 shutout of Colorado. Their 23-13 win over Illinois is looking better each week, and their narrow escape against San Diego State isn't looking nearly as bad since the Aztecs are a respectable 3-2. But this isn't a team that's going to be undefeated all season. The Aggies have lost two in a row, first on the road to Oklahoma State and last week on a neutral field (Dallas Stadium) to Arkansas, both ranked teams. Now in their third straight game against current top 25 teams, they're in danger of seeing their season's potential disappear. By points analysis the game is a tossup, with Missouri winning 316 and Texas A&M 309 runs, but with the Aggies a 1/100th point favorite on average. Yardage-wise it's not close, as the Aggies should be scoring a lot more points based on the yardage they're getting. If they do that, they'll get a big win and Missouri will go home 5-1.
  Final Prediction: Texas A&M 27, Missouri 21

And here are the six who are (probably) safe this week:

• Revenge Is Sweet: Texas (3-2) at #5 Nebraska (5-0)
  Vegas Line/Spread: Nebraska by 10
  Strength Power Rating Pick: Nebraska (84.2%) 32-12
  Yardage Analysis Score: Nebraska 34-6
  Comments: Pre-season we picked Texas to start 3-2, so all the hand-wringing about the Longhorns is misplaced. It should have been clear that they weren't going to be a top 5 team after losing a 4-year starting quarterback and their all-time leading receiver. After they lose to Nebraska they'll be 3-3 and the criticisms of Mack Brown will be amplified. The Longhorns should win out after that and finish 9-3. The magnitude of the loss to UCLA is the only troublesome thing in their year so far, but until they get that fourth loss I'm not going to call the season a disappointment. And if they manage to beat the Cornhuskers people will talk about how they've "righted the ship." I don't see that happening, as Nebraska has had this game in their crosshairs since the last second of the Big Twelve Championship in 2009.
  Final Prediction: Nebraska 41, Texas 17
  
  
• Can the Sooners Have an Easy Game?: Iowa State (3-3) at #4 Oklahoma (5-0)
  Vegas Line/Spread: Oklahoma by 22 1/2
  Strength Power Rating Pick: Oklahoma (77.6%) 37-21
  Yardage Analysis Score: Oklahoma 45-28
  Comments: The spread is big for Oklahoma but do you believe it? Other than their 47-17 win over Florida State the Sooners have lived on the edge, always leading but always letting the other team stick close and continue to score. I can't believe that Iowa State, who scored 52 on Texas Tech, would fail to be another team that stays annoyingly close. Both projections call for a closer game than Vegas does, as does common sense. Those crafty oddsmakers usually know what they're talking about, so maybe this is finally a game where the Sooners can coast. But Iowa State has a history of being pesky against clearly better teams, and I see no exception this time.
  Final Prediction: Oklahoma 33, Iowa State 23
  
  
• Most Disappointing MWC Matchup: BYU (2-4) at #3 TCU (6-0)
  Vegas Line/Spread: TCU by 29 1/2
  Strength Power Rating Pick: TCU (98.6%) 37-4
  Yardage Analysis Score: TCU 38-6
  Comments: BYU was supposed to be one of TCU's more impressive victims this year as the Horned Frogs attempted an against-the-odds run at a national title. The Cougars are anything but impressive this year at 2-4, so it's lucky for TCU that Air Force has picked up the ball in the Mountain West along with Utah. Almost a 30 point favorite, the Frogs have a lot to live up to. They've recorded two shutouts in a row and could make it three at home against BYU. Without Max Hall, Harvey Unga, and Dennis Pitta the Cougars are a shade of their former selves in a rebuilding year.
  Final Prediction: TCU 38, BYU 13
  
  
• Somewhat Better MWC Matchup: #14 Utah (5-0) at Wyoming (2-4)
  Vegas Line/Spread: Utah by 20 1/2
  Strength Power Rating Pick: Utah (96.6%) 45-14
  Yardage Analysis Score: Utah 45-14
  Comments: Wyoming is a "comparison" team this year, as they have already played Texas (lost 34-7 on the road), Boise State (51-6 at home), Air Force (20-14 at home), and TCU (45-0 road). Now Utah gets to show where they belong in the pecking order, and both projections call for a 45-14 win. This game looked like a bit of a challenge for the Utes pre-season but the Cowboys haven't lived up to last year's bowl-winning breakthrough; though the 2-4 start was easily foreseen, they struggled even in their two wins over Southern Utah and Toledo. After this weekend and the next at BYU things should get much better and they could still be bowl eligible.
  Final Prediction: Utah 45, Wyoming 14
  
  
• Worst WAC Game of the Week: #1 Boise State (5-0) at San Jose State (1-5)
  Vegas Line/Spread: Boise State by 41
  Strength Power Rating Pick: Boise State (100%) 44-4
  Yardage Analysis Score: Boise State 48-6
  Comments: This is perhaps the most lopsided matchup of the week. Even with Boise State's offense and defense both performing the worst they have this season, and the Spartans' units at their best, the Broncos would win. So the Strength Power Rating gives no chance of an upset, and its spread and the yardage numbers are in line with the oddsmakers' 41 points. Despite the fact that they can't lose this game, it's a no-win situation for the Broncos. Beating the spread by a little won't impress anyone, beating it by a lot will be dismissed as running up the score, and if the game is closer it will be seen as weakness. A shutout always looks good though, so that should be their goal.
  Final Prediction: Boise State 45, San Jose State 3
  
  
• You Deserve A Break Today: McNeese State (2-3) at #8 LSU (6-0)
  Vegas Line/Spread: LSU by 41 1/2
  Strength Power Rating Pick: LSU (99.9%) 45-0
  Yardage Analysis Score: LSU 27-0
  Comments: I guess we were wrong; there is one more lopsided matchup than the Boise State game. LSU plays Division I-AA (FCS) McNeese State, and they're a 41 1/2 point favorite. After playing the hardest schedule of any undefeated team so far and escaping with their lives the last few weeks the Tigers deserve a break, and this game should be one. The Strength Power Rating splits McNeese's offensive and defensive performances for 25 possibilities, and with LSU's 36 it constructs 900 possible outcomes. McNeese State wins exactly 1 of those, so if there's a perfect storm it could be the upset of the century. Don't bet on it, though. Both projections have the Cowboys scoring 0 points, so it's just a matter of how much LSU puts on the board.
  Final Prediction: LSU 35, McNeese State 0

 

Wetzel's bias ruins potentially informative BCS article, book

It would be nice to see an in-depth article about the computer ratings used in the BCS. Most people are very curious as to how they work, and since each computer rating is as important as roughly 14 pollsters, it would give some insight into what factors rank one team ahead of another. This is something that most college football fans know very little about. A large organization like Yahoo! Sports would be capable of doing a quality, comprehensive job with such an article.

They tried, but of course since Dan Wetzel was involved, what little insight we get is lost in the haze of vitriol directed at the BCS, and indirectly at the computer ratings and the men who created them. 'Death to the BCS: Nonsense Rules is one long, anti-BCS rant, pretty much the same as everything Wetzel writes on the subject, interspersed with interesting snapshots of the people who created several of the computer rating systems.

A further look reveals that the article is an excerpt from a full-length book, one which I can't imagine anyone in their right mind would read. The few who love the BCS (is there anyone?) wouldn't want to read it; the majority who hate the BCS already know why they hate it. What possible insight is there in a book whose objective is to slam the BCS?

The excerpted article shows how painful a read the book must be. Every time an objective, interesting fact tries to get in the way, the authors storm in with opinion and more BCS denigration. Along the way there are a few bizarre moments:

• They say that it is "hypocrisy" for the computer algorithms to be forbidden to use margin of victory, while allowing the voters to consider it. Come again? Does Wetzel favor sequestering the voters, and feeding them only win/loss information? Criticize the BCS for crippling the computers, sure, but to compare what they can use vs. what the humans are "allowed" to use is beyond silly. If anything, non-biased look at the situation would see that since the pollsters are almost certain to notice margin of victory, it's already accounted for in 2/3 of the system, and that human intelligence has the ability to know when to value a large margin of victory and when to dismiss it. But if your goal is to slam the BCS, you can turn anything into another trashing point.
• They cite an analysis of the computer rankings' predictive ability, which concluded it was low. Of course, the purpose of rankings is not necessarily to be predictive. That's only one facet of a rating system. Any year-end rating system should be based on how well teams in fact performed, not a guess as to how they would do if the games were played again.
• They take quite some time to slam Richard Billingsley, who has the rating algorithm most different from the others. Particularly interesting is how much hatred they have for his "carry-over" over ratings from one year to the next. Apparently they think this is foolish and stupid. Perhaps it lacks intellectual rigor, but by the end of the season the starting points are almost meaningless. And even if starting point did make a difference...has Wetzel looked at the pre-season AP poll, and how close it resembles the final AP poll from last season? Teams move up or down a few spots here and there, and that's it. Alabama was #1, they remain #1. Boise State moved just from #4 to #3, despite having 20 starters back. Texas fell only a few spots despite losing a 4-year starting quarterback. So where is the disdain for their fellow sportswriters?
• They mis-identify the problem with allowing the use of margin of victory, saying it was about "sportsmanship." That's not the whole truth. The real problem is that the system could be "gamed" by teams running up the score, and thereby put the focus on how much a team wins by. Which in turn could jeopardize players' health and allow less participation by the reserves. It's a legitimate point: do we really want to see teams trying to win by as much as they possibly can, against even the worst of competition? And most "solutions" to the M.O.V. problem create an unfortunate side effect whereby even playing a weak team will cause a team's rating to fall; it's better to not play the game at all. (For the record I'm in favor of using margin of victory; I think there should be ratings that use it and ratings that don't.)
• Wetzel hates the computers mainly because all he knows about them is their association with the BCS. The truth is that the computer ratings have made pollsters far more intelligent. Teams that would have been rated too high before the computer rating era are now left closer to where they belong. And vice versa. But writing an article or book that gave credit to the computer ratings for increasing insight into college football, and as a worthwhile tool to consider when evaluating teams and their schedules? That would give tangential credit to the BCS, which is verboten.

A few years ago Wetzel showed off his 16-team playoff brackets, and the 2nd round had something very telling: an expected matchup between Oklahoma and Texas Tech. Of course, the teams had played just weeks earlier, resulting in a 65-21 Oklahoma win. So Texas Tech gets a second chance? And if they win by a point, that's ok?

It's results like that which make a playoff system potentially worse—yes, even worse—than the BCS itself. What Wetzel is saying by presenting that matchup with a straight face is: the regular season does not matter at all. A 44 point win? Thrown in the trash heap. Play it again.

A well-constructed playoff would be great. But what are the odds that we'll get that? When even professional BCS-haters like Wetzel come up with horrifically stupid systems to replace it, imagine what the real powers that be will construct. And don't say making a playoff system is easy and obvious. So is making a BCS system, and look how they messed that up. Given a very simple job—determine the top two teams—they ignored the obvious: use the AP and Coaches poll only, like we'd been doing for decades. Instead they made a convoluted system with all sorts of extraneous variables, and got weird results that didn't match what everyone wanted: the top two teams in the polls.

They tweaked the system by simplifying it, and today's formula is the best one so far (which doesn't say much). The next logical step would be to get rid of the computers except in case of a tie. It's taken them 12 years and they aren't even at the obvious place they should have been in 1998. How long will it take them to whip a playoff system into shape?

Hate it, slam it, wish it would go away, but the BCS is what we've got right now, and I and many others would like to read interesting, informative, unbiased, and non-vitriolic articles about how the system works. We'll have to wait for those articles, though, because they aren't being written. Instead we get full-length books that preach to the choir about hating the BCS. It's a shame, because reading between the glut of bias there are some intriguing moments even in the short article. The reader is doomed, however, to only getting one viewpoint on the subject, one that colors everything written within.

Heisman Trophy Week 6: Robinson leaves the door open

Denard Robinson threw three interceptions in a losing effort, had fewer than 100 rushing yards for the first time, and fell to second in the nation in rushing yards per game, yet he is still the Heisman front-runner.

"Shoelace" did leave the door open, of course. But if each player gets three "strikes" before he's out of the race, Robinson's poor performance is just his first strike. Several other players being considered have had bad games, and those are forgotten after their next productive game. Witness Taylor Martinez, who is getting Heisman attention for his 241 yard explosion against Kansas State—just a week after he threw two interceptions against I-AA South Dakota State.

Robinson did reveal another way he can lose the award. Previously the speculation was that as a runner, a loss would hurt him far less than it would a traditional quarterback; that and the fact that he was carrying the team seemed to make his candidacy seemingly immune to Wolverine losses. But when he throws interceptions, he becomes a "regular" quarterback and has to shoulder the burden of defeat.

Still, no one else has accomplished what Robinson did his first five games. He remains in front—with one strike against him and a strong coterie of candidates breathing down his neck.

This week's list, in rough order (click here for the most recent update):

• Denard Robinson, Soph, QB Michigan [added week one]
  84-125  (67.2%) 1223yd  8TD 4int; 119rsh 991yd (8.3av) 9TD 1fmb 
• Kellen Moore, Junior, QB Boise State [added week two]
  91-135 (67.4%) 1336yd 14TD 1int;  7rsh -15yd (-2 av) 0TD 1fmb
• Terrelle Pryor, Junior, QB Ohio State [added week three]
  104-153 (68.0%) 1349yd 15TD 3int; 57rsh 354yd (6.2av) 3TD 0fmb; 1TD rec
  
• Colin Kaepernick, Senior, QB Nevada [added week four]
  106-150 (70.7%) 1321yd  8TD 3int; 86rsh 639yd (7.4av) 11TD 1fmb
• LaMichael James, Soph, RB Oregon [added week five]
  114rsh 848yd (8.3av) 9TD 3fmb; 3rec 96yd 1TD
• Mark Ingram, Junior, RB Alabama [added pre-season]
  56rsh 396yd (7.1av) 6TD 0fmb; 9rec 62yd 0TD
• Cam Newton, Junior, QB Auburn [added week six]
  70-108 (64.8%) 1138yd 12TD 5int; 104rsh 672yd (6.5av) 9TD 0fmb
  

Speaking of strikes, Mark Ingram has to have at least two by now if not more. For the second straight game he rushed for fewer than 50 yards, most recently in a losing effort. Add to this the fact that he missed the first two games of the season and his candidacy seems dead in the water; last year's winner is looking like the first cut when that time comes.

Kellen Moore and Tyrelle Pryor both threw three TD passes last weekend, both against inferior competition in blowout wins. Moore is far more consistent by Pryor adds the running game and has more high-profile games in the future. How he does against teams like Wisconsin and Iowa will determine his candidacy. Meanwhile, Moore's hopes die if Boise loses even once.

Colin Kaepernick had a decent but unspectacular game considering the competition (San Jose State). If he's going to get any real national attention he'll have to explode in games like these while he waits for the Boise State game as his potential turning point. LaMichael James had a good game against lowly Washington State; he scored twice on the ground and on an 84-yard pass play, too. But he also lost two fumbles, which I consider very important but which no one else seems to track or care about.

Cam Newton of Auburn is leading some people's lists though I don't see why. He already has thrown five interceptions, and his passing/rushing numbers aren't equal to Robinson's or Kaepernick's. The "what have you done for me lately" effect explains some of it, as he ran for 198 yards and four touchdowns against Kentucky in a close win.

And that's what gets him on our list ahead of the likes of Taylor Martinez and Andrew Luck. Unlike Nebraska without Martinez, without Newton Auburn would be staring at a losing record rather than 6-0. Luck brought Stanford their latest win and he'll probably make the list soon, but for now players on undefeated teams get the nod. Newton also accounts for 21 total touchdowns, which ain't shabby. The Tigers face Arkansas and Ryan Mallet, another potential candidate, this weekend.

2010 Projected Final BCS Standings (post-week 6): Oregon new champion, but Tide remains strong

This year we are projecting the Final (pre-bowl) BCS Standings each week, based on our pre-season standings and using the projected winner from each game. Every week these projections will be updated using the actual results for that week. For the most recent projection click here.

Here is the projection using our pre-season prognostications combined with results through week 6:

2010 Projected Final BCS Rankings (pre-Bowl) - post-week 6
LW	#	Team	record	BCS bowl
2	1.	Nebraska	13-0	Title game
3	2.	Oregon	12-0	Title game
1	3.	Alabama	12-1	Sugar
4	4.	Boise St	12-0	Rose
5	5.	TCU	12-0
9	6.	Arkansas	11-1	Fiesta
8	7.	Oklahoma	12-1	Fiesta
7	8.	Wisconsin	11-1	Rose
6	9.	Ohio State	11-1	Sugar
10	10.	Virginia Tech	11-2	Orange
18	11.	Auburn	10-2
11	12.	Stanford	10-2
12	13.	Michigan St	10-2
--	14.	South Carolina	8-4
15	15.	Florida	10-3
13	16.	Iowa	9-3
25	17.	LSU	9-3
20	18.	Utah	10-2
14	19.	Miami FL	9-3
--	20.	Florida St	9-4
21	21.	Texas	9-3
19	22.	Arizona	8-4
17	23.	Washington	8-4
22	24.	Texas Tech	9-3
--	25.	Clemson	8-4

(#16 Penn State, #23 Pittsburgh, and #24 Houston dropped out)

Using this projection, we get the following probable bowl pairings (favorites in green):

BCS Championship Game: Oregon vs. Nebraska
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Boise State
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia (#29 in rankings)
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Arkansas (or TCU)

This week's notes:

• Alabama's loss benefits Oregon, but the Tide are still in good position

Naturally Alabama's loss to South Carolina shook up the projected rankings. The Tide had settled in as the favorite after beating Arkansas and Florida, but the loss throws a wrench in their plans. But not a very big one. Alabama still is projected to be the #3 team in the rankings when all is said and done, and they're surprisingly close to being ahead of Oregon for the #2 spot.

The SEC title game pairing didn't change, despite Alabama and Florida both losing. Both were defeated by opponents from the other division, so neither lost control of their destiny. If Florida beats South Carolina and Alabama beats LSU and Auburn, we'll still have an Alabama-Florida rematch in the title game. It would be better still for Alabama if South Carolina makes it to the SEC championship game; if the Tide goes 12-1 and has avenged their only loss, their chances of playing for the BCS title are very good.

Right now that prize goes to an undefeated Nebraska and Oregon, and regardless of what Alabama does the voters will make sure two BCS-conference undefeated teams get first priority. The computers (and the pollsters, too) will have Alabama close and waiting for a slip-up, though.

• Boise State, TCU still out in the cold; Ohio State controls destiny

Boise State and, especially, TCU are still left out. Boise State looks like they will make a BCS bowl while the Horned Frogs will not, which is pretty much the situation we've had all year. It's been speculated that these teams will be very high in the first BCS rankings release, and indeed if the rankings came out this week they'd look something like this:

  1. Boise St                    5-0  
  2. Oregon                      6-0  
  3. Ohio State                  6-0  
  4. TCU                         6-0  
  5. Auburn                      6-0  
  6. Oklahoma                    5-0  
  7. Nebraska                    5-0  
  8. LSU                         6-0  
  9. Michigan St                 6-0  
 10. Alabama                     5-1  
 11. Utah                        5-0  
 12. South Carolina              4-1 

If Alabama wins out—or if pretty much any SEC team finishes with one loss and wins the SEC title game, thereby going 12-1—they'll move far ahead of both Boise and TCU in the computer ratings, and be at least neck-and-neck with them in the Coaches and Harris polls. That doesn't even consider the additional teams that could go undefeated.

One is Ohio State, who because of the polls is in pole position to go to the national championship game. If they lose to Wisconsin—an upset that this projection is predicting—they lose all hope, falling behind even Boise State and TCU in the season-end computer rankings. If they win out, however, they move ahead of nearly everyone and bump Oregon. So next week we might have yet another change, unless Wisconsin plays over their heads and keeps their Rose Bowl plans alive.

• Arkansas hurt the most

The team hurt the most by Alabama's loss is actually Arkansas. Up until now they've been projected as a sure thing for a BCS bowl and they didn't lose last week, but with Alabama reduced to the Sugar Bowl rep, the rest of the selection process might not leave room for the Razorbacks. The Fiesta Bowl will replace Nebraska with the Big 12's Oklahoma; the Rose Bowl will pick Boise State (see the clause in the selection process below) against Wisconsin; the Sugar Bowl won't take an SEC team to play Alabama. That leaves the Orange and Fiesta Bowls, either of whom might take TCU instead of Arkansas. In the current scenario, the Orange may choose to take West Virginia to pit against Virginia Tech, leaving the Fiesta to Arkansas or TCU.

• Big East has no representative in top 25

In the Coaches and Harris polls, West Virginia is the only team in the top 25. In our projection, the Big East won't even have them when all is said and done. But the Mountaineers will probably get an Orange Bowl big for winning the league. Pittsburgh hasn't lost a conference game yet but they are 2-3 and haven't played well. We're giving the nod to the Mountaineers for now, who could have a decent regional clash between West Virginia and Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl. Florida State narrowed the Hokies' leeway in the ACC title game, so this game could go through some changing forecasts as well.

• Changes: Auburn, Arkansas up due to LSU; Clemson up due to South Carolina

Since these are projections, and at mid-season contain an equal amount of predicted games, things that haven't happened yet combined with things that have to form "the future" as we see it. Case in point: Clemson, who lost to North Carolina, re-enters the projected rankings at #25. The loss didn't hurt them as that was already accounted for, but they're also predicted to upset South Carolina in the final week of the season, a "win" that just got more valuable.

Likewise, Auburn and Arkansas are both supposed to beat LSU later this season (Auburn plays them next week). LSU's surprise win over Florida increases their value as a victim, and bumps Auburn up to #11 and Arkansas up to #6. The Razorbacks are still screwed by the selection process and Bowl-to-Conference bindings, however, which could make the SEC a one-BCS-bowl conference this year.

Florida stayed at #15 despite the surprise loss. They play South Carolina later in the year and the Gamecocks will be a more valuable win than they were last week. In the Big Ten, Ohio State and Iowa fell because Penn State lost to Illinois; the Hawkeyes don't even play the Illini so they were hurt worse.

==================================================================

BCS Selection Rules for 2010-11
(simplified; full detail here):

• #1 and #2 teams go into BCS Championship game;

then, if still available:

• Rose Bowl gets Big 10, Pac 10 champs*
• Sugar Bowl gets SEC champ
• Orange Bowl gets ACC champ
• Fiesta Bowl gets Big 12 champ

After these conference winners have been placed, selections will be made in the following order:

• BCS #1 team is replaced*
• BCS #2 team is replaced*
• Sugar Bowl picks its 2nd team
• Orange Bowl picks its 2nd team
• Fiesta Bowl picks its 2nd team

*special Rose Bowl note: In replacing a Big Ten or Pac-10 team that makes the BCS title game, the Rose Bowl will select an automatic non-BCS qualifier.

All of the BCS conference champs must be selected, along with Notre Dame if in the top 8, any one other non-BCS-conference champ if in the top 12, and if still available the #3 and (in many cases) #4 teams in the BCS rankings.

SportsRatings Top 25 Week 6: Boise back on top

Welcome to the SportsRatings College Football Top 25 for the week ending October 9, 2010. This is a subjective ranking, not a computer power rating. It does attempt to use several rules some of which include honoring head-to-head results whenever possible, and giving more consideration to teams with wins over other top 25 teams.

A week after over losing the #1 spot, Boise State takes it back...at least for the time being. It wasn't Boise's 57-14 win over 3-3 Toledo as much as Oregon's unimpressive 43-23 struggle with Washington State, as well as Oregon State's victory at Arizona which gave the Broncos a top 25 win. Either way, we're being fair to the Broncos; they might slip from the top spot but they can also recapture it, unlike most pundits who only allow Boise to maintain their position or drop. After Alabama's loss, some suggested the Tide should only fall to #3 in the AP (behind Ohio State and Oregon) and that it "was time" for the prominent undefeated BCS-conference teams to jump Boise State.

The Beavers' win also helped TCU rise to #3 and the Horned Frogs racked up their 2nd straight shutout for good measure, beating Wyoming at home 45-0. For comparison's sake, Boise State beat Wyoming 51-6 on the road, while Texas beat the Cowboys 34-7; Utah gets their shot next week. Oregon will play at Oregon State on December 4, making the Beavers a common opponent among our current top three.

Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Ohio State each moved up a spot. The Sooners were idle but have two top 25 wins including an upgraded blowout win over Florida State, while Big Twelve cohort Nebraska manhandled previously unbeaten Kansas State 48-13. Ohio State's win over Miami, though downgraded, keeps them edging closer to the top five (meanwhile the Buckeyes are a solid #1 in the AP and coaches' polls).

SportsRatings Top 25 - week six 2010 (thru 10/09/2010)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
2	1	Boise State	5-0	w@OregonSt 37-24
1	2	Oregon	6-0	wStanford 52-31
4	3	TCU	6-0	w OregonSt 30-21
5	4	Oklahoma	5-0	wFSU 47-17, AF 27-24
6	5	Nebraska	5-0	w@KState 48-13
7	6	Ohio State	6-0	wMiami 36-24
8	7	Auburn	6-0	wSCarolina 35-27
11	8	LSU	6-0	w@Florida 33-29
15	9	South Carolina	4-1	L@Aub 35-27; wAlabama 35-21
3	10	Alabama	5-1	L@SC 35-21; w@Ark 24-20, FLA 31-6
10	11	Arkansas	4-1	L Alabama 24-20; w=TexAM 24-17
9	12	Stanford	5-1	L@Oregon 52-31
16	13	Michigan St	6-0	wWisconsin 34-24
14	14	Utah	5-0
17	15	Oklahoma St	5-0	wTexasA&M 38-35
21	16	Florida St	5-1	L@OK 47-17; w@Miami 45-17
19	17	Air Force	5-1	L@OK 27-24
20	18	Nevada	5-0
25	19	Missouri	5-0
23	20	Wisconsin	5-1	L@MichSt 34-24
13	21	Florida	4-2	L@Alabama 31-6, LSU 33-29
12	22	Miami FL	3-2	L@OSU 36-24, FSU 45-17
18	23	Kansas St	4-1	L Nebraska 48-13
--	24	Oregon St	3-2	L@TCU 30-21, BSU 37-24; w@Az 29-27
22	25	Arizona	4-1	L OregonSt 29-27
		out:
24	--	Texas A&M	3-2	L@OKSt 38-35, =Ark 24-17

Alabama's loss caused a shakeup among the SEC teams in the rankings, largely because of Auburn's previous win over South Carolina. This meant that the Tigers—who narrowly avoided upset against Kentucky—had to be ahead of the Gamecocks, who of course rocket up to #9 ahead of the Tide.

Alabama remains ahead of Arkansas, whom they beat a few weeks ago. The Razorbacks slip a spot despite knocking out Texas A&M. Meanwhile, LSU rises to #8 and Stanford slips to #12 after needing a last-second field goal to beat USC at home; the Cardinal are without a top 25 win and have a weaker résumé than the teams that move ahead of them.

13 undefeated teams left

Michigan State won their showdown with Michigan handily and rises to #13. Utah remains unbeaten but not overly impressive and holds at #14. Oklahoma State follows at #15, with Nevada and Missouri the final remaining unbeaten teams at #18 and #19.

Florida State's 45-17 mauling of Miami leaps them from #21 to #16, just ahead of Air Force who like the Seminoles has lost only to Oklahoma. Wisconsin rounds out the top 20.

Last week it seemed there were too many good teams to fit in the top 25; now it looks like the opposite problem. Despite suffering their second losses, Florida and Miami remain after big falls. Kansas State stays in despite the Nebraska blowout, and even former #22 Arizona hangs on at #25. Only Texas A&M falls out, replaced by a more deserving 2-loss team, Oregon State. As mentioned the Beavers beat Arizona on the road and have lost only to #1 Boise State and #3 TCU. Former unbeatens Michigan and Northwestern both lost and therefore don't get in this week.

South Carolina beats Alabama 35-21; Michigan State upends Michigan 34-17

AP and Coaches Poll #1 and SportsRatings #3 Alabama fell to #15 South Carolina as Stephen Garcia passed for three first-half touchdowns and the Gamecocks held on to win 35-21.

The Gamecock defense held Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson to fewer than 100 yards combined, while freshman Marcus Lattimore rushed for 93 on his own.

In Ann Arbor, #16 Michigan State pulled away from Michigan and the Wolverines couldn't come back, with Denard Robinson threw three interceptions and had a season-low 88 rushing yards.

The Spartans' Kirk Cousins was 19 of 26 for 286 yards and Edwin Baker had 132 yards on the ground.