2010 Projected Final BCS Standings (post-week 9): Few Changes, but TCU in BCS Bowl

This year we are projecting the Final (pre-bowl) BCS Standings each week, based on our pre-season standings and using the projected winner from each game. Every week these projections will be updated using the actual results for that week. For the most recent projection click here.

Here is the projection using our pre-season prognostications combined with results through week 9 (10/30/2010):

2010 Projected Final BCS Rankings  - post-week 9
lw	#	Team	record	BCS Bowl	Current BCS#	If they win out
1	1	Oregon	12-0	Title Game	1	1
2	2	Alabama	12-1	Title Game	6	2
3	3	Boise St	12-0	Rose	4	3
4	4	Nebraska	12-1	Fiesta	7	4
5	5	TCU	12-0	Fiesta	3	5
6	6	Auburn	11-1	Sugar	2	1
7	7	Wisconsin	11-1	Rose	9	7
8	8	Ohio State	11-1	Sugar	11	8
9	9	Oklahoma	11-2		8	3
11	10	Stanford	11-1		13	10
10	11	Missouri	10-2		12	9
12	12	Virginia Tech	11-2	Orange	22	12
14	13	Arkansas	10-2		18	13
16	14	Iowa	9-3		16	10
15	15	Michigan St	10-2		14	11
13	16	Texas	8-4		--	16
17	17	Arizona	9-3		15	5
18	18	Utah	10-2		5	4
21	19	LSU	9-3		10	5
22	20	Florida	9-4		--	12
--	22	Oklahoma St	9-3		17	4
19	22	South Carolina	7-5		19	6
24	23	Oregon St	7-5		--	10
20	24	Miami FL	8-4		--	18
--	25	North Carolina	8-4		--	21

(#23 Florida State, #25 Texas Tech fell out)

Using this projection, we get the following probable bowl pairings (favorites in green):

BCS Championship Game:	Oregon vs. Alabama
Rose Bowl:	Wisconsin vs. Boise State
Sugar Bowl:	Auburn vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl:	Virginia Tech vs. Pittsburgh (BCS #32)
Fiesta Bowl:	Nebraska vs. TCU

This week's notes:

• Very little change as almost all games were correctly projected

From Nebraska's win over Missouri to Iowa's "upset" of Michigan State, almost everything happened according to plan last week, particularly near the top, so there is very little change overall. Stanford did blow out Washington so badly they're now projected to win out and finish 11-1, while Iowa's win margin was so great that they move ahead of the Spartans. Other than that there were no surprises among the current top 15.

• TCU now projected for a BCS bowl after moving up to #3 in current standings

Since after week one, we've had TCU at or near the top five in the final projection, but never a lock for a BCS bowl game. With their rise to #3 in the current standings and the growing respect for the team, they will very likely receive a BCS bowl bid if they win out. A win over Utah would give them a marquee victory even if they eventually slide to #5 due to a slipping computer ranking (they end by playing winless New Mexico). There's a good chance that they finish higher, #4 or even #3, but right now it appears that Boise State will retake #3 and Nebraska will barely pass them. A dominant win over Utah could change that next week.

Right now we list them in the Fiesta Bowl although the Orange Bowl might select them first. We think the Orange will end up with Pitt in order to have two East Coast teams, which leaves TCU to play much closer to home in Glendale in the Fiesta Bowl. It depends on how much interest the Orange Bowl hears from taking TCU compared to Pitt. It would be much nicer to see Nebraska-TCU though, so let's hope that happens if this all plays out. We think the powers that be would arrange to have TCU and Pitt both play closer to home, and these adjustments can be made by the BCS conferences via arcane backroom dealings according to the official guidelines.

• Big Ten winner could come down to BCS ranking; Boise State or TCU in Rose due to special clause

Although Stanford moves up to #10 in the final rankings their odds of a Rose Bowl berth are slim. With the Rose Bowl's little-mentioned special clause of taking an automatic qualifier as a replacement team, the Cardinal would have to hope Boise, TCU, and Utah fall out of the top 16, or Oregon loses two games, neither of which is likely to happen.

As for the Big Ten, Wisconsin is in if Michigan State is upset in one of their last three games, which this projection assumes. After losing once, and badly, it seems more likely than it did a week ago, but the Spartans could easily win out and leave three Big Ten teams—Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State—with one loss. In that scenario the BCS rankings would be used as final arbitor, and there's no guarantee the Badgers would remain on top. They should stay ahead in the computer rankings, and if the pollster respect their win over the Buckeyes there's no problem. Though MSU beat Wisconsin it doesn't look like they'd be ahead in that case; they need Iowa to beat Ohio State. For the Hawkeyes part, if they win out and Wisconsin loses again, they're in.

• Other minor changes near the bottom

Big 12 shuffle: Texas falls from 13 to 16 after losing to Baylor; they Longhorns are rather optimistically still projected to win out while Baylor is pessimistically expected to lose a few more. Oklahoma State enters at #23 after finally convincing the projection that they're for real.

In the ACC, Miami and FSU lost, with the Canes remaining in since they're projected to go 3-1 in their last four. The Seminoles are still favored to reach (and lose) the ACC title game.

Two 7-5 teams are near the bottom, South Carolina and Oregon State. The Gamecocks are expected to lose three more games, all by narrow scores, but it's doubtful they'd stay in the top 25 if that happens. They slip this week due to a few unexpected losses by previous/future foes. Oregon State is 4-3 right now and going 3-2 would put them at 7-5. The pollsters would probably not list them with that ranking, but they should if four of their losses are to Oregon, Boise State, TCU, and Stanford.

• What if they win out?

Last week after the fact we added another column, a projection for each team if they win out. There are some issues with this column as it takes each case independently and some of the cases (i.e., TCU and Utah both winning out) can't happen, so it's an even rougher estimate. But there are some interesting results.

The following teams have a realistic shot at the nation title game if they win out and some upsets occur:

• Auburn would likely retake the #1 position in the rankings if they win out, as they'd carve into Oregon's lead in the polls after beating Alabama. Obviously as the current #2, they'll be in the title game if they win out.
• Oklahoma would likely just miss the title game at #3 but would supplant Boise State
• Utah would rise to #4 as an undefeated team. The reason they're projected to be higher than an undefeated TCU is that the current projection has Utah at 10-2, less value than an 11-1 TCU with the computers.
• Oklahoma State would also rise to #4 if they won out and won the Big 12 title game.
• Arizona or LSU would climb to around #5 for winning out, both finishing behind Boise, Nebraska, and TCU as well as Oregon or Alabama in separately-run projections.

The following teams could put themselves into position for a BCS bowl berth if they win out and other things fall into place (with no guarantee they'd be selected of course):

• South Carolina climbs to #6 if they win out, and of course would receive an automatic berth if they win the SEC title game. Florida would only make it to around #12 but would be in the Sugar Bowl if they won the title game, too.
• Iowa and Michigan State would climb to around #10 and #11, but would need help to be selected at that level if winning out didn't put them in the Rose Bowl.
• Missouri also probably needs help if they win out and climb to #9; Nebraska has to lose to put the Tigers in the SEC title game.
• Oregon State is an interesting case, as they play Stanford and #1 Oregon. Winning out would make them 9-3 and put them in the Rose Bowl. It is also the one scenario under which Boise State and TCU might end up #1 and #2 in the BCS. The Beavers would knock Oregon out of the #1 spot and if Alabama runs the table beating Auburn, but just barely, and plays Florida again instead of South Carolina, the Broncos would be ahead in the computers and TCU and Alabama would be neck and neck. Depending on what the pollsters do it could be Boise-TCU in the national title game. Boise would have wins over two conference champions (Virginia Tech and Oregon State), TCU one, and Alabama none. The pollsters would still put the Tide #2 in that case most likely, but if Baylor were to win out in the Big 12 (another unlikely, but possible, occurrence) and Oregon State the Pac-10, the two non-BCS-conference teams would likely finish ahead of any 1-loss SEC team, particularly if it were LSU.

Among teams in the current BCS top 25 but not in the final projection:

• Current #20 Mississippi State doesn't control their destiny for the SEC title game; winning out puts them around #11 and unlikely to be selected for a BCS bowl, and not eligible if two conference teams are selected ahead of them.
• #21 Baylor would reach the Big 12 title game by winning out, and finishing 11-2 puts them around #7 and in the Fiesta Bowl.
• #23 Nevada has just one loss and plays Boise State; beating the Broncos would make them 12-1 (they play a 13-game schedule) and #11 in the BCS. They'd be eligible to be the automatic at-large bid but not ahead of TCU/Utah for that designation, and maybe not even Boise State.
• #24 Florida State no longer controls their path to the ACC title game but North Carolina State will likely lose again, so if FSU won out and beat Virginia Tech they'd be in the Orange Bowl, while sitting at around #12 in the standings.
• #25 North Carolina State does control their path, obviously; if they win out they'll rise to #13 and get the Orange Bowl bid.

 

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BCS Selection Rules for 2010-11
(simplified; full detail here):

• #1 and #2 teams go into BCS Championship game;

then, if still available:

• Rose Bowl gets Big 10, Pac 10 champs*
• Sugar Bowl gets SEC champ
• Orange Bowl gets ACC champ
• Fiesta Bowl gets Big 12 champ

After these conference winners have been placed, selections will be made in the following order:

• BCS #1 team is replaced*
• BCS #2 team is replaced*
• Sugar Bowl picks its 2nd team
• Orange Bowl picks its 2nd team
• Fiesta Bowl picks its 2nd team

*special Rose Bowl note: In replacing a Big Ten or Pac-10 team that makes the BCS title game, the Rose Bowl will select an automatic non-BCS qualifier.

Automatic qualifiers: All of the BCS conference champs must be selected, along with Notre Dame if in the top 8, any one other non-BCS-conference champ if in the top 12 (or top 16 if ranked ahead of a BCS conference champ), and in most cases either the #3 or #4 team in the BCS rankings.

Beyond the automatic qualifiers, the remaining teams are selected "at-large". At-large teams must be selected from those in the top 14.

Comments

[mj]

Utah didn't budge the whole time, even when they were up to #5, and now after 2 losses they're still in the same spot. How did you know they'd lose 2 straight?

[vo]

Utah was a fake. we'll see that again against Boise.