SportsRatings: College Football: 2010 Projected Final BCS Standings (post-week 8): Still Oregon vs. Alabama

This year we are projecting the Final (pre-bowl) BCS Standings each week, based on our pre-season standings and using the projected winner from each game. Every week these projections will be updated using the actual results for that week. For the most recent projection click here.

Here is the projection using our pre-season prognostications combined with results through week 8 (10/24/2010):

2010 Projected Final BCS Rankings - post-week 8
lw	#	Team	record	BCS Bowl	Current BCS#	If they win out
1	1	Oregon	12-0	Title Game	2	1
2	2	Alabama	12-1	Title Game	7	2
3	3	Boise St	12-0	Rose	3	3
4	4	Nebraska	12-1	Fiesta	14	4
6	5	TCU	12-0	Orange?	4	5
7	6	Auburn	11-1	Sugar	1	1
8	7	Wisconsin	11-1	Rose	10	7
9	8	Ohio State	11-1	Sugar	11	8
5	9	Oklahoma	11-2	Orange?	9	3
24	10	Missouri	10-2		6	1
11	11	Stanford	10-2		13	10
13	12	Virginia Tech	11-2	Orange	23	12
10	13	Texas	9-3		--	13
12	14	Arkansas	10-2		19	14
14	15	Michigan St	10-2		5	3
15	16	Iowa	9-3		18	9
22	17	Arizona	9-3		15	5
18	18	Utah	10-2		8	4
16	19	South Carolina	7-5		20	6
20	20	Miami FL	9-3		22	11
17	21	LSU	9-3		12	4
19	22	Florida	9-4		--	10
21	23	Florida St	9-4		16	9
25	24	Oregon St	7-5		--	11
--	25	Texas Tech	8-4		--	19

(#23 Washington dropped out)

Using this projection, we get the following probable bowl pairings (favorites in green):

BCS Championship Game: Oregon vs. Alabama
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Boise State
Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Oklahoma (or TCU)
Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska vs. Pittsburgh (#32 in rankings)

This week's notes:

• Oklahoma loss drops them out of probable Sugar Bowl berth

Last week Oklahoma was projected to finish #5, losing only to Nebraska in the Big 12 title game. This put them in line for a Sugar Bowl berth unless Ohio State was chosen instead. After losing to Missouri, Ohio State is the clear choice. Missouri, meanwhile, rises into the BCS bowl equation but along with the Sooners is probably not going to make it. Oklahoma will be a strong candidate to be chosen for the Orange Bowl, but there will be cries a foul play if they are chosen ahead of Missouri who beat them, as well as undefeated TCU who may end up getting the nod. But the Sooners would travel better and money might trump everything.

• Big East still can't field a decent team

West Virginia lost to Syracuse so the Big East's automatic berth goes back to Pittsburgh, who has three losses already, and probably won't be in the final BCS Top 25.

• Wisconsin continues Rose Bowl march, but Michigan State must lose twice

The Badgers barely beat Iowa and are on track to finish 11-1 and go to the Rose Bowl, but they don't control their own destiny. If Michigan State finishes 11-1 or better, the Spartans will very likely be in the Rose Bowl; according to this projection, beating Iowa this weekend puts them in. Their opponent, due to the Rose Bowl's strange stipulation of replacing a team with an automatic non-BCS conference qualifier, would be Boise State. Stanford is in a tough situation. They'd need Boise State to lose, and TCU, and probably Utah, and all would have to fall out of the top 16. They would qualify for a BCS bowl at 10-2, but they might need to be 11-1 to insure a top 12 finish; if they finish 13th the Rose Bowl could choose a team outside the Pac-10. An Oregon loss would also derail those hopes, as the Ducks would fall out of the BCS title game and into the Rose Bowl.

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BCS Selection Rules for 2010-11
(simplified; full detail here):

#1 and #2 teams go into BCS Championship game;

then, if still available:

Rose Bowl gets Big 10, Pac 10 champs*
Sugar Bowl gets SEC champ
Orange Bowl gets ACC champ
Fiesta Bowl gets Big 12 champ

After these conference winners have been placed, selections will be made in the following order:

BCS #1 team is replaced*
BCS #2 team is replaced*
Sugar Bowl picks its 2nd team
Orange Bowl picks its 2nd team
Fiesta Bowl picks its 2nd team

*special Rose Bowl note: In replacing a Big Ten or Pac-10 team that makes the BCS title game, the Rose Bowl will select an automatic non-BCS qualifier.

Automatic qualifiers: All of the BCS conference champs must be selected, along with Notre Dame if in the top 8, any one other non-BCS-conference champ if in the top 12 (or top 16 if ranked ahead of a BCS conference champ), and if still available the #3 and (in many cases) #4 teams in the BCS rankings.

Beyond the automatic qualifiers, the remaining teams are selected "at-large". At-large teams must be selected from those in the top 12.