As the season progresses and power ratings become more reliable, there are early indications that the Pac-10 is going to be one hell of a conference this year. Take a look at the All-Division Strength Power Rating:
# Team rec Rating Offense[rnk] Defense[rnk]
1. Oregon 4-0 76.22 69.51 [ 3] -6.70 [ 12]
2. Stanford 4-0 76.02 71.79 [ 1] -4.23 [ 20]
3. Ohio State 4-0 70.46 66.16 [ 5] -4.29 [ 19]
4. Alabama 4-0 69.04 59.29 [ 14] -9.75 [ 4]
5. Arizona 4-0 67.08 54.13 [ 29] -12.94 [ 1]
The ratings above include both FBS and FCS teams so is more comprehensive for early results which include a lot of I-AA (FCS) teams. Along with the AP #1 and #2 teams, Alabama and Ohio State, we have three undefeated Pac-10 teams, Oregon, Stanford, and Arizona. Other teams in the top 25 include California at #10 and Arizona State at #18.
The conference also boasts undefeated USC; UCLA, who just demolished Texas; and Oregon State, who is 1-2 but with competitive losses to highly-ranked TCU and Boise State. Only the Washington teams have not represented the conference well, with the Huskies losing to BYU and Nebraska, and Washington State being an embarrassment again so far.
What's causing the Pac-10 to be ranked so high in power ratings?
- For some teams it's simple domination. Oregon, for example, destroyed its first three opponents 189-13. Then they beat ASU by just 11, but we'll get to that in a moment.
- For other teams, it's schedule. Arizona ranks #1 in the Success Ratings, which don't consider margin of victory. This means that of all the 4-0 teams, the Wildcats have had the toughest schedule so far.
- For most it's a combination. Stanford has been dominant against a pretty tough schedule. Beating Notre Dame 37-14 on the road is a good example: some will just say Notre Dame is no good this year, but look how much trouble Michigan and Michigan State (both 4-0) had with the Irish. Stanford's win clearly puts them a notch above those two teams, both of whom are ranked in the national polls. Cal is another example; they have two losses against undefeated teams (Nevada and Arizona) and two crushing wins, including a 52-7 romp over 2-1 Colorado.
Even the Pac-10 teams that have losses have ended up making the other conference teams look good. UCLA is the best example; the Bruins lost early to Kansas State then were beat much worse by Stanford. Already that boosts the Cardinal, but when the Bruins toasted Houston 31-13 and Texas 34-12 it really gave the conference something to crow about.
Arizona State is another example. The Sun Devils recently lost to Oregon 42-31 in Corvallis; the week before they went into Madison and took the Wisconsin Badgers down to the wire, losing 20-19. That's just another direct comparison of top conference teams, and the Pac-10 wins again.
All of this adds up to very high rankings for the Pac-10 teams, and with the non-conference schedule over this effect will persist as they play against each other, unless the non-conference teams they beat (Houston, Texas, Notre Dame, etc) falter and lose "value", or the same thing happens to the teams they lost to (Nebraska, TCU, Nevada).
Best offense and defense ratings still a work in progress
Here are the best offenses in college football, according to the Strength Power Rating (Offense Ratings)
# Team rec Offense Defense
1. Iowa 3-1 54.43 [ 1] 19.85 [ 44]
2. Stanford 4-0 53.97 [ 2] 12.16 [ 15]
3. California 2-2 51.92 [ 3] 17.26 [ 28]
4. North Carolina St 4-0 49.94 [ 4] 29.63 [ 88]
5. Oklahoma St 3-0 49.10 [ 5] 33.90 [101]
Iowa? Really? The Hawkeyes have been known for defense lately. Though Rick Stanzi is no slouch and they've had a strong running game for a while, their defense won games for them last year. But here they are at #1 on offense. They have scored 37, 35, 27, and 45 in their four outings, but three of the four teams were nothing special. It's the other team they played (Arizona) which gives them the big boost:
# Team rec Offense Defense
1. Arizona 4-0 33.02 [ 32] -6.68 [ 1]
2. Central Florida 2-2 14.30 [113] 2.11 [ 2]
3. Virginia 2-1 9.71 [127] 4.92 [ 3]
4. Miami FL 2-1 41.12 [ 17] 6.72 [ 4]
5. UCLA 2-2 23.88 [ 75] 7.22 [ 5]
Above are the corresponding defense ratings. The Wildcats rank #1 in an almost comical way, with a negative defensive average, and since Iowa scored 27 on them (in Tucson), that gives the Hawkeye offense a big boost. According to these early numbers, when Iowa had the ball against Arizona it was the nation's best offense going up against the nation's best defense!
Arizona gave up 2 points to Toledo, 6 to The Citadel, and just 9 to California. It's the last game that puts the Wildcats on top, as Cal scored 52, 52, and 31 in their other games. So you can see the chain in "thinking" that leads to Iowa having the best offense, but let's face it, this is the product of having a sample of only four games: a single example can distort everything. Arizona is unlikely to finish the year at #1 in scoring defense and obviously is not going to maintain a negative average in points yielded. When that corrects itself then Iowa's offensive rating will modify itself, too, as it's pretty clear Iowa doesn't really have the best offense in the nation. It will be interesting to see where both teams end up.
As always, a bigger sample yields a better result. After week four the results aren't bad but a single game can still have an overbearing effect on things. Usually week 5 or 6 is when the results become pretty stable and then change only gradually for the rest of the year.
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