After last week's national title eliminator game pitting Alabama vs. Arkansas, it's time for a Pac-10 title eliminator. When Stanford visits Oregon, it might be a meetup between the #1 and #2 teams in the country—at least it is according to early power rating results.
No matter how good these teams are the winner clearly has a leg up in the Pac-10 race, though given how tight the league has been in recent years a single loss doesn't mean the loser is out. But this year might be different; both of these teams are good enough to run the table, so this game looks like a key contest that might decide the Rose Bowl representative. And it might be the loser that goes to the Rose Bowl, as the winner could be in the BCS title game.
We've been ahead of the curve on both of these teams; Oregon started at #7 in SportsRatings and is currently #2, while Stanford (unranked in the pre-season AP poll) started at #19 and has been in the top ten for three weeks, moving up to #6 this week.
There are several other key contests in an exciting week 5, including big rivalries with Oklahoma and Texas, and Florida and Alabama. Overall there are 4 contests matching top 25 teams in our rankings, and two more that match AP top 25 teams.
- Game of the week: #6 Stanford (4-0) at #2 Oregon (4-0)
Vegas line/spread: Oregon by 7
Analysis: As we said above, this one's for all the marbles in the Pac 10. At least that's what it looks like right now. Given how Stanford stuffed UCLA, who ran all over Houston (not surprising) and Texas (surprising), Oregon might have some worries. But they're at home so we'll give them a very slight edge.
Strength Power Rating says: Oregon by 4 (wins 61%)
Prediction: Oregon 41, Stanford 38
- Red River Rivalry of the Week: #5 Oklahoma (4-0) vs. #19 Texas (3-1)
Vegas line/spread: Oklahoma by 3 1/2
Analysis: Most weeks this would be game of the week, but both teams have looked unlike national title contenders lately. Particularly Texas, who got trounced by UCLA. We kept Texas in the top 25 because they'll be taken care of by this game; either they win and proved they should be in, or they lose and fall out. The Sooners have four wins, three of them tight and unconvincing, but few teams have had a schedule as tough as theirs. Oklahoma should win, and it could be more like the FSU game than the Utah State, Air Force, or Cincy games because they'll be up for this one while Texas has to be questioning themselves.
Strength Power Rating says: Oklahoma by 4 (wins 57%)
Prediction: Oklahoma 34, Texas 20
- SEC Game of the Week: #6 Florida (4-0) at #3 Alabama (4-0)
Vegas line/spread: Alabama by 8
Analysis: Any other week and this would be game of the week, too. But Florida has looked downright vulnerable all season so far, even moreso than Oklahoma since the competition has been poor. But freshman Trey Burton put some life into the Gators last week, scoring six touchdowns on six plays. It won't be enough to topple the Tide, however. Florida wants this to be a "revenge game" but I think it's going to be a "revelation" as in, Florida will be revealed as a 2nd-tier SEC team. The home field advantage means everything in this game so the route could be on.
Strength Power Rating says: Alabama by 13 (wins 93%)
Prediction: Alabama 33, Florida 7
- ACC Game of the week: #14 Miami (2-1) at #20 Clemson (2-1)
Vegas line/spread: Miami by 3 1/2
Analysis: Miami looked great against Pitt, winning 31-3, and they could have stolen the Ohio State game if not for turnovers. Clemson could easily be 3-0 and ranked in the national polls but lost in overtime to #9 Auburn. Still, the Tigers don't rank so well in the early power ratings; their highest-rated game rates lower than Miami's lowest-rated. With only 9 cross-comparisons that can happen, but even when offensive and defensive performance are separated and re-combined, only 2 of 81 comparisons go the Tigers' way. I don't think Miami will dominate like they did against Pitt nor by as much as the power ratings suggest, but they've played twice on the road already so that won't be an issue.
Strength Power Rating says: Miami by 18 (wins 98%)
Prediction: Miami 31, Clemson 21
- Big Ten Game of the Week: #13 Wisconsin (4-0) at Michigan State (4-0)
Vegas line/spread: Wisconsin by 2
Analysis: The Spartans are one of four Big Ten teams that are ranked in the AP but not by SportsRatings. Really, we have nothing against the Big Ten at all, but beating Notre Dame and MAC opponents won't get you in our top 25. Beating Wisconsin would, however. This week will let us know how high on emotion the Spartans are due to their coach's hospital stay. Tellingly the Badgers are only a 2 point favorite...but they're only a 1 point favorite by the Strength Power Ratings so the line seems to be built on results, not adjustments for intangibles. A naturally close game, playing a ranked team, at home, with an ailing coach? Yep, that counts as an emotional advantage. The Spartans might give Dantonio another heart attack in this one.
Strength Power Rating says: Wisconsin by 1 (wins 54%)
Prediction: Michigan State 30, Wisconsin 27 OT
- Battle of Big Ten Teams Ranked by the AP: Penn State (3-1) at Iowa (3-1)
Vegas line/spread: Iowa by 8
Analysis: The oddsmakers have gotten the hint: Iowa beats Penn State, often. It's no surprise they're favored this year, after all the Hawkeyes are at home and beat the Nittany Lions on the road last year, and upset them the year before, both times when Penn State was favored. Each team has one loss to a ranked team (Alabama for Penn State, Arizona for Iowa), both on the road. Both are ranked by the AP, Iowa at #17, Penn State at #22. The only question is how Iowa will handle being a fairly heavy favorite. I think that being at home—where they've won 37-7, 35-7, and 45-0—is going to be the key.
Strength Power Rating says: Iowa by 9 (wins 80%)
Prediction: Iowa 26, Penn State 21
- Battle of more undefeated Big Ten teams: Michigan (4-0) at Indiana (3-0)
Vegas line/spread: Michigan by 10 (over/under 66)
Analysis: We know Michigan is for real—or at least, Denard Robinson is. Without him they're a question mark, though their backups did a great job against Bowling Green (Tate Forcier hit 12 of 12 passes and Devan Gardner 7 of 10) while Robinson was out. Reports are that he's ready to go against the Hoosiers, and even without him they'd probably burst Indiana's undefeated bubble. I don't expect him to play very long if the Wolverines build an early lead so I'd expect a lower-scoring game than the 66 point shootout the oddsmakers see.
Strength Power Rating says: Michigan by 24 (wins 90%)
Prediction: Michigan 35, Indiana 17
- Battle of undefeated Big Twelve teams: #16 Texas A&M (3-0) at Oklahoma State (3-0)
Vegas line/spread: Oklahoma State by 3
Analysis: At this stage of the season, 3-0 teams are naturally very suspect. It's not that hard to go 3-0, particularly against poor competition, which is what the Aggies and Cowboys have done. A&M beat I-AA Stephen F. Austin, Louisiana Tech, and Florida International (by 7), while OK State mauled Washington State, edged Troy by 3, and wiped out Tulsa. SportsRatings has had Texas A&M in the top 25 since the pre-season while Oklahoma State remains unranked. The Aggies' Jerrod Johnson was living up to his pre-season hype until the FIU game where he was 11 for 31 with 4 interceptions. Meanwhile Kendall Hunter has recaptured his 2008 form, running for 257 yards against Washington State, and 162 against Troy (just 57 against Tulsa, though, as QB Brandon Weedon exploded for 6 passing TDs). With little reliable new evidence to go by, I'm ignoring both the oddsmakers and the Strength Power Rating and looking at our pre-season take on the game for guidance, adjusting it with the expectation of a high-scoring game.
Strength Power Rating says: Texas A&M by 3 (wins 54%)
Prediction: Texas A&M 45, Oklahoma State 32
- Tough-luck Pac 10 Battle: Arizona State (2-2) at Oregon State (1-2)
Vegas line/spread: Oregon State by 3 1/2
Analysis: Between these teams they have 3 wins and 4 losses, but both might be top 25 level squads. The Sun Devils have lost to Wisconsin (by a point) and Oregon (by 11), while Oregon State has of course fallen to the top two BCS busters in Boise State (37-24) and TCU (31-20). Neither team was impressive in their wins, however; ASU has two over FCS teams, and the Beavers beat Louisville by a touchdown. Their drive for respect starts here. Rose Bowl hopefuls Wisconsin and Oregon hope for an ASU win which could propel an undefeated Oregon-Wisconsin matchup into the national title game, while Boise and TCU root for Oregon State to help their own fair-to-middling hopes of a BCS title game appearance. The breakdown in the Strength Power Rating projections is interesting; with Oregon State taking 58% of game comparisons until offense and defense are split out, which makes it a 50-50 tossup. By average score ASU wins by 2 even with home field advantage going to the Beavers. I'll give it to the Beavers due to home field.
Strength Power Rating says: Arizona State by 2 (ASU wins 50%)
Prediction: Oregon State 30, Arizona State 27
- Last-chancers facing 4-0 teams: Virginia Tech (2-2) at N.C. State (4-0)
and Washington (1-2) at #25 USC (4-0)
Vegas line/spread: Virginia Tech by 4, USC by 10
Analysis: Ranked at the beginning of the year but no longer, Virginia Tech and Washington both have two losses, one expected, the other a surprise. Now both face undefeated teams with a chance to point their seasons in the right direction. Some would say Virginia Tech has already done that by coming back to crush East Carolina, and blanking Boston College. Washington certainly needs a boost after a huge loss to Nebraska. Both face undefeated teams; North Carolina State is one of the surprises of the season so far, while USC was deemed certain to be undefeated at this juncture but has largely underperformed. I'll agree with the oddsmakers and take the Hokies to burst the Wolfpack's bubble and USC to continue the Huskies' woes.
Strength Power Rating says: North Carolina State by 2 (58%), USC by 24 (97%)
Predictions: Virginia Tech 29, NC State 27; USC 34, Washington 17
Get Ready for the Big Ten - M.A.C. Challenge
Every year in college basketball the Big Ten and ACC conferences hold the Big Ten-ACC Challenge, where each team plays a team from the other conference. While the ACC has won the lion's share of games, there are always good teams and good matchups from both powerhouse basketball leagues, and the pairings give a boost to everyone's pre-season schedule strength and fan interest is created.
Now let's look at college football. Though I've not seen it officially declared, there is a de facto Big Ten-M.A.C. Challenge this weekend (you have to say it like you would say ACC, not as "Mac") as a total of eight Big Ten teams take on Mid-American (MAC) conference foes on Saturday.
The MAC is no ACC, even in football and despite how troubled the ACC is this year. This weekend is either designed to be, or by coincidence just is, a bye week for the Big Ten, a weekend where every team in the conference should pad their record with a win. Two Big Ten teams that don't play MAC squads instead play teams from the FCS (Division I-AA), and one other, Illinois, has an actual bye week. And unlike the Big Ten-ACC clashes, in which home court is fairly distributed between the leagues, this one's a dead giveaway: the MAC team will be the visitor in every single matchup.
Big Ten vs. the MAC on 9/25/2010: The Run-down
The chart above shows the Big Ten's week four schedule, listing their opponent's conference and both team's Success ratings from last year. The Vegas line (spread) and our rudimentary forecast for the game are included.
As if things needed to be made maximally lopsided, the Big Ten's best team, Ohio State, is paired against last season's worst FBS team, Eastern Michigan. Iowa vs. Ball State is only marginally more competitive. While those are the only games with 100 ranking positions difference, Purdue is over 50 slots better than Toledo.
In two cases the MAC team actually did better than the Big Ten team last year, but those are illusory. Michigan with Denard Robinson is a lot better than last year's team while Bowling Green is 1-2 so far; the Wolverines are a 25 point favorite. And Central Michigan was 12-2 last year but lost star QB Dan LeFevour and is no longer a top 25 team. Still, it could be a close game with Northwestern. Among eight games, the MAC stands a good chance to pick up a win, maybe two, but more than that would be a surprise.
Other good matchups? Penn State vs. Temple might be a much better game than last year's rankings would indicate, but we won't know for sure until they hit the field. Minnesota vs. Northern Illinois should be tight, as the Gophers lost to an FCS team this year. But while Indiana-Akron pairs two equally hapless teams from last year, Indiana is 2-0 and Akron 0-3 so far and the Zips aren't expected to compete.
In the FCS games, Wisconsin against I-AA Austin Peay should be a bit better than Ohio State-Eastern Michigan, and Michigan State vs. Northern Colorado could be closer still—if five touchdowns is "close." With coach Mark Dantonio recovering from a heart attack, the Spartans could be fired up to bury the Bears.
Some will blame "The BCS" for weekends like this, but basically this is what happens when you expand the college football schedule from 11 to 12 games: the pre-season has more fluff. As conference play gets tougher for the bigger and better leagues, the non-conference schedule can't be too difficult or destructive. Athletic directors used to scheduling 11 games know that to have a winning season six wins are necessary, and a cupcake win is as good as a tough opponent. So it's not the BCS: it's the 12-game season and requirement to have a winning season and get to a bowl game, coupled with the allowance of one FCS win, that has diluted schedules recently.
This year has been a lot better than in the past in the first few weeks. But the fourth week is...pretty weak. And the Big Ten is leading the charge in that respect. What if there were a Big Ten-ACC Challenge in football as well as basketball? The Big Ten should push for that as they could expect to do a lot better than they do in basketball, and next season they'll have 12 teams and could match all of them up. It would be great for fans but, alas, it might mean that someone would miss a bowl game. And who would the MAC teams play that weekend?
Reblog (0) |