SportsRatings: College Football

Week 5 Previews, Odds, and Predictions: Oregon vs. Stanford for the Pac-10 crown, maybe more

After last week's national title eliminator game pitting Alabama vs. Arkansas, it's time for a Pac-10 title eliminator. When Stanford visits Oregon, it might be a meetup between the #1 and #2 teams in the country—at least it is according to early power rating results.

No matter how good these teams are the winner clearly has a leg up in the Pac-10 race, though given how tight the league has been in recent years a single loss doesn't mean the loser is out. But this year might be different; both of these teams are good enough to run the table, so this game looks like a key contest that might decide the Rose Bowl representative. And it might be the loser that goes to the Rose Bowl, as the winner could be in the BCS title game.

We've been ahead of the curve on both of these teams; Oregon started at #7 in SportsRatings and is currently #2, while Stanford (unranked in the pre-season AP poll) started at #19 and has been in the top ten for three weeks, moving up to #6 this week.

There are several other key contests in an exciting week 5, including big rivalries with Oklahoma and Texas, and Florida and Alabama. Overall there are 4 contests matching top 25 teams in our rankings, and two more that match AP top 25 teams.

• Game of the week: #6 Stanford (4-0) at #2 Oregon (4-0)
  Vegas line/spread: Oregon by 7
  Analysis: As we said above, this one's for all the marbles in the Pac 10. At least that's what it looks like right now. Given how Stanford stuffed UCLA, who ran all over Houston (not surprising) and Texas (surprising), Oregon might have some worries. But they're at home so we'll give them a very slight edge.
  Strength Power Rating says: Oregon by 4 (wins 61%)
  Prediction: Oregon 41, Stanford 38
   
  
• Red River Rivalry of the Week: #5 Oklahoma (4-0) vs. #19 Texas (3-1)
  Vegas line/spread: Oklahoma by 3 1/2
  Analysis: Most weeks this would be game of the week, but both teams have looked unlike national title contenders lately. Particularly Texas, who got trounced by UCLA. We kept Texas in the top 25 because they'll be taken care of by this game; either they win and proved they should be in, or they lose and fall out. The Sooners have four wins, three of them tight and unconvincing, but few teams have had a schedule as tough as theirs. Oklahoma should win, and it could be more like the FSU game than the Utah State, Air Force, or Cincy games because they'll be up for this one while Texas has to be questioning themselves.
  Strength Power Rating says: Oklahoma by 4 (wins 57%)
  Prediction: Oklahoma 34, Texas 20
   
  
• SEC Game of the Week: #6 Florida (4-0) at #3 Alabama (4-0)
  Vegas line/spread: Alabama by 8
  Analysis: Any other week and this would be game of the week, too. But Florida has looked downright vulnerable all season so far, even moreso than Oklahoma since the competition has been poor. But freshman Trey Burton put some life into the Gators last week, scoring six touchdowns on six plays. It won't be enough to topple the Tide, however. Florida wants this to be a "revenge game" but I think it's going to be a "revelation" as in, Florida will be revealed as a 2nd-tier SEC team. The home field advantage means everything in this game so the route could be on.
  Strength Power Rating says: Alabama by 13 (wins 93%)
  Prediction: Alabama 33, Florida 7
   
  
• ACC Game of the week: #14 Miami (2-1) at #20 Clemson (2-1)
  Vegas line/spread: Miami by 3 1/2
  Analysis: Miami looked great against Pitt, winning 31-3, and they could have stolen the Ohio State game if not for turnovers. Clemson could easily be 3-0 and ranked in the national polls but lost in overtime to #9 Auburn. Still, the Tigers don't rank so well in the early power ratings; their highest-rated game rates lower than Miami's lowest-rated. With only 9 cross-comparisons that can happen, but even when offensive and defensive performance are separated and re-combined, only 2 of 81 comparisons go the Tigers' way. I don't think Miami will dominate like they did against Pitt nor by as much as the power ratings suggest, but they've played twice on the road already so that won't be an issue.
  Strength Power Rating says: Miami by 18 (wins 98%)
  Prediction: Miami 31, Clemson 21
   
  
• Big Ten Game of the Week: #13 Wisconsin (4-0) at Michigan State (4-0)
  Vegas line/spread: Wisconsin by 2
  Analysis: The Spartans are one of four Big Ten teams that are ranked in the AP but not by SportsRatings. Really, we have nothing against the Big Ten at all, but beating Notre Dame and MAC opponents won't get you in our top 25. Beating Wisconsin would, however. This week will let us know how high on emotion the Spartans are due to their coach's hospital stay. Tellingly the Badgers are only a 2 point favorite...but they're only a 1 point favorite by the Strength Power Ratings so the line seems to be built on results, not adjustments for intangibles. A naturally close game, playing a ranked team, at home, with an ailing coach? Yep, that counts as an emotional advantage. The Spartans might give Dantonio another heart attack in this one.
  Strength Power Rating says: Wisconsin by 1 (wins 54%)
  Prediction: Michigan State 30, Wisconsin 27 OT
   
  
• Battle of Big Ten Teams Ranked by the AP: Penn State (3-1) at Iowa (3-1)
  Vegas line/spread: Iowa by 8
  Analysis: The oddsmakers have gotten the hint: Iowa beats Penn State, often. It's no surprise they're favored this year, after all the Hawkeyes are at home and beat the Nittany Lions on the road last year, and upset them the year before, both times when Penn State was favored. Each team has one loss to a ranked team (Alabama for Penn State, Arizona for Iowa), both on the road. Both are ranked by the AP, Iowa at #17, Penn State at #22. The only question is how Iowa will handle being a fairly heavy favorite. I think that being at home—where they've won 37-7, 35-7, and 45-0—is going to be the key.
  Strength Power Rating says: Iowa by 9 (wins 80%)
  Prediction: Iowa 26, Penn State 21
   
  
• Battle of more undefeated Big Ten teams: Michigan (4-0) at Indiana (3-0)
  Vegas line/spread: Michigan by 10 (over/under 66)
  Analysis: We know Michigan is for real—or at least, Denard Robinson is. Without him they're a question mark, though their backups did a great job against Bowling Green (Tate Forcier hit 12 of 12 passes and Devan Gardner 7 of 10) while Robinson was out. Reports are that he's ready to go against the Hoosiers, and even without him they'd probably burst Indiana's undefeated bubble. I don't expect him to play very long if the Wolverines build an early lead so I'd expect a lower-scoring game than the 66 point shootout the oddsmakers see.
  Strength Power Rating says: Michigan by 24 (wins 90%)
  Prediction: Michigan 35, Indiana 17
   
  
• Battle of undefeated Big Twelve teams: #16 Texas A&M (3-0) at Oklahoma State (3-0)
  Vegas line/spread: Oklahoma State by 3
  Analysis: At this stage of the season, 3-0 teams are naturally very suspect. It's not that hard to go 3-0, particularly against poor competition, which is what the Aggies and Cowboys have done. A&M beat I-AA Stephen F. Austin, Louisiana Tech, and Florida International (by 7), while OK State mauled Washington State, edged Troy by 3, and wiped out Tulsa. SportsRatings has had Texas A&M in the top 25 since the pre-season while Oklahoma State remains unranked. The Aggies' Jerrod Johnson was living up to his pre-season hype until the FIU game where he was 11 for 31 with 4 interceptions. Meanwhile Kendall Hunter has recaptured his 2008 form, running for 257 yards against Washington State, and 162 against Troy (just 57 against Tulsa, though, as QB Brandon Weedon exploded for 6 passing TDs). With little reliable new evidence to go by, I'm ignoring both the oddsmakers and the Strength Power Rating and looking at our pre-season take on the game for guidance, adjusting it with the expectation of a high-scoring game.
  Strength Power Rating says: Texas A&M by 3 (wins 54%)
  Prediction: Texas A&M 45, Oklahoma State 32
   
  
• Tough-luck Pac 10 Battle: Arizona State (2-2) at Oregon State (1-2)
  Vegas line/spread: Oregon State by 3 1/2
  Analysis: Between these teams they have 3 wins and 4 losses, but both might be top 25 level squads. The Sun Devils have lost to Wisconsin (by a point) and Oregon (by 11), while Oregon State has of course fallen to the top two BCS busters in Boise State (37-24) and TCU (31-20). Neither team was impressive in their wins, however; ASU has two over FCS teams, and the Beavers beat Louisville by a touchdown. Their drive for respect starts here. Rose Bowl hopefuls Wisconsin and Oregon hope for an ASU win which could propel an undefeated Oregon-Wisconsin matchup into the national title game, while Boise and TCU root for Oregon State to help their own fair-to-middling hopes of a BCS title game appearance. The breakdown in the Strength Power Rating projections is interesting; with Oregon State taking 58% of game comparisons until offense and defense are split out, which makes it a 50-50 tossup. By average score ASU wins by 2 even with home field advantage going to the Beavers. I'll give it to the Beavers due to home field.
  Strength Power Rating says: Arizona State by 2 (ASU wins 50%)
  Prediction: Oregon State 30, Arizona State 27
   
  
• Last-chancers facing 4-0 teams: Virginia Tech (2-2) at N.C. State (4-0)
  and Washington (1-2) at #25 USC (4-0)
  Vegas line/spread: Virginia Tech by 4, USC by 10
  Analysis: Ranked at the beginning of the year but no longer, Virginia Tech and Washington both have two losses, one expected, the other a surprise. Now both face undefeated teams with a chance to point their seasons in the right direction. Some would say Virginia Tech has already done that by coming back to crush East Carolina, and blanking Boston College. Washington certainly needs a boost after a huge loss to Nebraska. Both face undefeated teams; North Carolina State is one of the surprises of the season so far, while USC was deemed certain to be undefeated at this juncture but has largely underperformed. I'll agree with the oddsmakers and take the Hokies to burst the Wolfpack's bubble and USC to continue the Huskies' woes.
  Strength Power Rating says: North Carolina State by 2 (58%), USC by 24 (97%)
  Predictions: Virginia Tech 29, NC State 27; USC 34, Washington 17

 

2010 Projected Final BCS Standings (post-week 4): Bama #1. Boring...

This year we are projecting the Final (pre-bowl) BCS Standings each week, based on our pre-season standings and using the projected winner from each game. Every week these projections will be updated using the actual results for that week. For the most recent projection click here.

Here is the projection using our pre-season prognostications combined with results through week 4:

2010 Projected Final* BCS Rankings (*pre-Bowl) - post-week 4
LW	#	Team	record	BCS bowl
8	1.	Alabama	13-0	Title game
2	2.	Nebraska	13-0	Title game
3	3.	Wisconsin	12-0	Rose
5	4.	Oregon	12-0	Rose
4	5.	Boise St	12-0	Fiesta
6	6.	TCU	12-0
7	7.	Oklahoma	12-1	Fiesta
9	8.	Ohio State	11-1	Sugar
1	9.	Arkansas	11-1	Sugar
10	10.	Virginia Tech	11-2	Orange
11	11.	Miami FL	10-2
13	12.	Stanford	10-2
12	13.	Florida	11-2
15	14.	Texas Tech	10-2
16	15.	Auburn	10-2
18	16.	Washington	9-3
17	17.	Utah	10-2
20	18.	Iowa	9-3
19	19.	Penn State	9-3
14	20.	Texas	9-3
22	21.	Arizona	9-3
21	22.	Pittsburgh	10-2	Orange
23	23.	LSU	8-4
25	24.	Florida St	8-5
24	25.	North Carolina	8-4

Using this projection, we get the following probable bowl pairings (favorites in bold):

BCS Championship Game: Alabama vs. Nebraska
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl: Arkansas vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl: Virgina Tech vs. Pittsburgh
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Boise State

This week's notes:

• Alabama the new projected national title winner

Things just got a little more boring. For the first several weeks of the season we had an interesting set of champion predictions, starting with Arkansas, then moving to Oklahoma and then Nebraska. Now we're just like everyone else.

From the pre-season until last week the projection was predicting an Arkansas win against Alabama, which was to be the Tide's only loss of the season. When the Razorbacks were up 20-7 it looked like it would come true. But as Alabama rallied for a 24-20 win, a lot of the more interesting aspects of the projection went with it. The Tide shouldn't lose the rest of the way, putting them in the SEC championship game, making them 13-0, and putting them in the national title game. Unlike Arkansas they're playing better than Nebraska and will be favored to win and repeat as national champions.

So instead of Arkansas vs. Oklahoma, it's Alabama vs. Nebraska. Still SEC vs. Big Twelve for a second straight year.

• Rest of projection mostly unchanged

Wisconsin and Oregon are the favorites for the Rose, as the Ducks move up a spot to #4. This is due to UCLA beating Texas, which boost's Oregon's strength of schedule and eases them past Boise State, who like #6 TCU didn't really dominate Oregon State. If Oregon really struggles with the Beavers then that might drop them below the Broncos, but a lot of other factors will be just as important so that direct comparison won't matter much to the computers or the pollsters.

Arkansas dropped all the way to #9 since that projected win over Alabama meant a lot, plus they don't get a win in the SEC title game. Even winning out doesn't do a lot for them unless they make it convincing, and currently they are only playing like a borderline top 25 team so it's unlikely they'll wow the pollster. Still, a 1-loss finish puts them in the Sugar Bowl as the replacement SEC team. TCU is still out of luck at this time, and more tepid wins like SMU won't help their cause.

• Other than Texas, only minor moves by Stanford, Iowa, Arizona

Last week Texas took a big jump after beating Texas Tech, but they fall back down to #20 after getting stuffed by UCLA at home. The Longhorns were supposed to be 3-1 at this point so their ranking is barely changed from where we had them pre-season (#22). After Oklahoma and Nebraska they could be 3-3, but they'll probably still be in the same position here as those are expected to be losses according to the projection. If the losses are blowouts they could drop, however.

A few teams moved up a spot due to Texas' fall, but a few moved up independent of a simple shift in position. Stanford rose a spot more due to UCLA's increased value as a victim (Stanford already beat them, 35-0) and somewhat due to the Cardinal's growing respect in the polls after beating Notre Dame. They're still expected to lose twice but can reverse one of those by beating Oregon this weekend. Washington also moves up because of UCLA's surprise win, but they'll have to play better—and beat USC this weekend—to live up to the projection's still-high hopes for the team.

Iowa jumped from #20 to #18 as they are riding high in the Strength Power Rating. They move back ahead of Penn State, whom they play this weekend. They're expected to win at home; if they don't they'll probably fall out of the projected top 25, and the Nittany Lions would get a big boost.

• Big East struggles to find a worthy BCS bowl representative

Arizona, also riding high in the power ratings and getting a boost from UCLA, moves ahead of Pittsburgh who lost to Miami 31-3. The Panther loss was expected but the magnitude was greater than projected. If that kind of play continues the Panthers could conceivably slide out of the list of 25 even if they win out. They remain the Big East favorite as no other conference team has stepped up to prove they can beat them. West Virginia lost to LSU so they can't be the great hope, Cincinnati couldn't quite pull off the Oklahoma upset, and Rutgers lost to North Carolina.

The Tar Heels beat the Scarlet Knights just 17-13 and continue to reveal themselves as a hobbled team; the projection doesn't have information (nor do we) on when all their "suspended" players will be back. This, coupled with Florida State's 31-0 win over Wake Forest moves the Seminoles up a spot. FSU has a long way to go before they'll be favored over Virginia Tech or Miami in the ACC title game though. The Hurricanes are still behind the Hokies, who have two losses but neither in ACC play, having just beaten Boston College 19-0. While the ACC teams haven't done well this year, it's not as dire as the Big East.

==================================================================

BCS Selection Rules for 2010-11
(simplified; full detail here):

• #1 and #2 teams go into BCS Championship game;

then, if still available:

• Rose Bowl gets Big 10, Pac 10 champs
• Sugar Bowl gets SEC champ
• Orange Bowl gets ACC champ
• Fiesta Bowl gets Big 12 champ

After automatic qualifiers have been placed, selections will be made in the following order:

• BCS #1 team is replaced
• BCS #2 team is replaced
• Sugar Bowl picks its 2nd team
• Orange Bowl picks its 2nd team
• Fiesta Bowl picks its 2nd team

All of the BCS conference champs must be selected, along with Notre Dame if in the top 8, any one other non-BCS-conference champ if in the top 12, and if still available the #3 and (in many cases) #4 teams in the BCS rankings.

Power Ratings, post-week 4: Is the Pac-10 the best conference this year?

As the season progresses and power ratings become more reliable, there are early indications that the Pac-10 is going to be one hell of a conference this year. Take a look at the All-Division Strength Power Rating:

  #  Team                        rec   Rating  Offense[rnk]  Defense[rnk]
  1. Oregon                      4-0   76.22   69.51 [  3]   -6.70 [ 12]
  2. Stanford                    4-0   76.02   71.79 [  1]   -4.23 [ 20]
  3. Ohio State                  4-0   70.46   66.16 [  5]   -4.29 [ 19]
  4. Alabama                     4-0   69.04   59.29 [ 14]   -9.75 [  4]
  5. Arizona                     4-0   67.08   54.13 [ 29]  -12.94 [  1]

The ratings above include both FBS and FCS teams so is more comprehensive for early results which include a lot of I-AA (FCS) teams. Along with the AP #1 and #2 teams, Alabama and Ohio State, we have three undefeated Pac-10 teams, Oregon, Stanford, and Arizona. Other teams in the top 25 include California at #10 and Arizona State at #18.

The conference also boasts undefeated USC; UCLA, who just demolished Texas; and Oregon State, who is 1-2 but with competitive losses to highly-ranked TCU and Boise State. Only the Washington teams have not represented the conference well, with the Huskies losing to BYU and Nebraska, and Washington State being an embarrassment again so far.

What's causing the Pac-10 to be ranked so high in power ratings?

• For some teams it's simple domination. Oregon, for example, destroyed its first three opponents 189-13. Then they beat ASU by just 11, but we'll get to that in a moment.
• For other teams, it's schedule. Arizona ranks #1 in the Success Ratings, which don't consider margin of victory. This means that of all the 4-0 teams, the Wildcats have had the toughest schedule so far.
• For most it's a combination. Stanford has been dominant against a pretty tough schedule. Beating Notre Dame 37-14 on the road is a good example: some will just say Notre Dame is no good this year, but look how much trouble Michigan and Michigan State (both 4-0) had with the Irish. Stanford's win clearly puts them a notch above those two teams, both of whom are ranked in the national polls. Cal is another example; they have two losses against undefeated teams (Nevada and Arizona) and two crushing wins, including a 52-7 romp over 2-1 Colorado.

Even the Pac-10 teams that have losses have ended up making the other conference teams look good. UCLA is the best example; the Bruins lost early to Kansas State then were beat much worse by Stanford. Already that boosts the Cardinal, but when the Bruins toasted Houston 31-13 and Texas 34-12 it really gave the conference something to crow about.

Arizona State is another example. The Sun Devils recently lost to Oregon 42-31 in Corvallis; the week before they went into Madison and took the Wisconsin Badgers down to the wire, losing 20-19. That's just another direct comparison of top conference teams, and the Pac-10 wins again.

All of this adds up to very high rankings for the Pac-10 teams, and with the non-conference schedule over this effect will persist as they play against each other, unless the non-conference teams they beat (Houston, Texas, Notre Dame, etc) falter and lose "value", or the same thing happens to the teams they lost to (Nebraska, TCU, Nevada).

Best offense and defense ratings still a work in progress

Here are the best offenses in college football, according to the Strength Power Rating (Offense Ratings)

  #  Team                        rec   Offense       Defense
  1. Iowa                        3-1   54.43 [  1]   19.85 [ 44]
  2. Stanford                    4-0   53.97 [  2]   12.16 [ 15]
  3. California                  2-2   51.92 [  3]   17.26 [ 28]
  4. North Carolina St           4-0   49.94 [  4]   29.63 [ 88]
  5. Oklahoma St                 3-0   49.10 [  5]   33.90 [101]

Iowa? Really? The Hawkeyes have been known for defense lately. Though Rick Stanzi is no slouch and they've had a strong running game for a while, their defense won games for them last year. But here they are at #1 on offense. They have scored 37, 35, 27, and 45 in their four outings, but three of the four teams were nothing special. It's the other team they played (Arizona) which gives them the big boost:

  #  Team                        rec   Offense        Defense
  1. Arizona                     4-0   33.02 [ 32]   -6.68 [  1]
  2. Central Florida             2-2   14.30 [113]    2.11 [  2]
  3. Virginia                    2-1    9.71 [127]    4.92 [  3]
  4. Miami FL                    2-1   41.12 [ 17]    6.72 [  4]
  5. UCLA                        2-2   23.88 [ 75]    7.22 [  5]

Above are the corresponding defense ratings. The Wildcats rank #1 in an almost comical way, with a negative defensive average, and since Iowa scored 27 on them (in Tucson), that gives the Hawkeye offense a big boost. According to these early numbers, when Iowa had the ball against Arizona it was the nation's best offense going up against the nation's best defense!

Arizona gave up 2 points to Toledo, 6 to The Citadel, and just 9 to California. It's the last game that puts the Wildcats on top, as Cal scored 52, 52, and 31 in their other games. So you can see the chain in "thinking" that leads to Iowa having the best offense, but let's face it, this is the product of having a sample of only four games: a single example can distort everything. Arizona is unlikely to finish the year at #1 in scoring defense and obviously is not going to maintain a negative average in points yielded. When that corrects itself then Iowa's offensive rating will modify itself, too, as it's pretty clear Iowa doesn't really have the best offense in the nation. It will be interesting to see where both teams end up.

As always, a bigger sample yields a better result. After week four the results aren't bad but a single game can still have an overbearing effect on things. Usually week 5 or 6 is when the results become pretty stable and then change only gradually for the rest of the year.

 

SportsRatings Top 25 Week 4: Boise holds steady, TCU Slips to #4

Welcome to the SportsRatings College Football Top 25 for the week ending September 25, 2010. This is a subjective ranking, not a computer power rating. It does attempt to use several rules some of which include honoring head-to-head results whenever possible, and giving more consideration to teams with wins over other top 25 teams.

Boise State's 37-24 win over Oregon State wasn't pretty or particularly convincing but it was enough to keep the Broncose on top of our subjective rankings. The margin was roughly the same as TCU's earlier win over the Beavers, and now the question is: how good is Oregon State? If the Broncos and Horned Frogs are both top five teams, the Beavers should be a top 25-level team. We'll find out eventually but at 1-2 with a weak win over Louisville we aren't ranking them just yet.

Speaking of TCU, their Thursday evening win over SMU (41-24) was troubling, too. It was enough to drop them behind Oregon, and then Alabama grabbed the #3 spot due to their win over ranked Arkansas. That puts the Horned Frogs at #4 after beginning the season our #1 team. Again, SMU could prove to be a good team, as they've only lost to TCU and Texas Tech, but from a current vantage point TCU had too much trouble with them.

New #2 Oregon had their own troubles putting away Arizona State, but considering that the Sun Devils nearly beat Wisconsin the 42-31 road win doesn't seem so bad. And #3 Alabama might have lost to Arkansas if not for Ryan Mallet's sudden poor passing, but you can't fault the Tide for their play against any other team on the schedule or for beating a tough SEC foe on the road.

#1 Boise State handled Wyoming on the road easily, 51-6. This surpassed Texas' home win over the Cowboys (34-7) and gave us no reason to tinked with the Broncos #1 rating—for now. TCU faces Wyoming at home on October 9th and they'll have to be similarly dominant to stick around the very top slots. Their 45-10 win over Baylor was good enough to hold on to #2. Rounding out the top five is Oklahoma, holding steady after a scare from Cincinnati. The Sooners have had three scares now but still have two wins over top 25 teams which keeps them aloft.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week four 2010 (thru 9/25/2010)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Boise State	3-0
3	2	Oregon	4-0
4	3	Alabama	4-0	w@Arkansas 24-20
2	4	TCU	4-0
5	5	Oklahoma	4-0	wFSU 47-17, AirForce 27-24
9	6	Stanford	4-0
7	7	Ohio State	4-0	wMiami 36-24
6	8	Nebraska	4-0
12	9	Auburn	4-0	wSCar 35-27, Clem 27-24ot
10	10	Florida	4-0
8	11	Arkansas	3-1	L Alabama 24-20
14	12	LSU	4-0
15	13	Wisconsin	4-0
17	14	Miami FL	2-1	L@OhioState 36-24
18	15	Utah	4-0
16	16	Texas A&M	3-0
13	17	South Carolina	3-1	L@Auburn 35-27
--	18	Kansas St	4-0
11	19	Texas	3-1	L UCLA 34-12; w@TTech 24-14
20	20	Clemson	2-1	L@Auburn 27-24ot
21	21	Air Force	3-1	L@Oklahoma 27-24
22	22	Florida St	3-1	L@Oklahoma 47-17
23	23	Nevada	4-0
24	24	Arizona	4-0
25	25	USC	4-0
		out:
19	--	Texas Tech	2-1	L Texas 24-14

Stanford continues their rapid ascent at #6. #19 pre-season, the Cardinal have upset no one but their winning margins have been astounding including Saturday's 37-14 trouncing of Notre Dame, who nearly beat Michigan and Michigan State. Ohio State remains #7 after crushing Eastern Michigan as expected, while Nebraska slumps back to #8 following a lame performance against I-AA South Dakota State.

Auburn leaps to #9 from #12 after beating their 2nd top 25 victim in another close game. The Tigers could easily be 1-3 right now but their résumé is as strong as anyone's so far. They leap Florida, who finally put together a strong game against Kentucky.

Arkansas drops a few spots to #11 after nearly beating Alabama; LSU, Wisconsin, Miami, and Utah make up some ground after wins while Texas A&M holds at #16 following an idle week. South Carolina's loss to Auburn pushes them down just a few spots, as they lost narrowly on the road.

The biggest shift in the rankings occurs due to Texas' 34-12 loss to 2-2 UCLA. The Longhorns had just defeated Texas Tech on the road to prove they were better than we expected, only to lose big and prove that wasn't the case. The difficulty here is, how can you rank 3-1 Texas ahead of 4-0 Kansas State, when the Wildcats beat the Bruins? My answer is, you can't. The Wildcats, who edged Central Florida this weekend, debut one slot ahead of Texas at #18, while the Red Raiders drop out of the rankings on an idle week. Sometimes life isn't fair.

The final six spots in the rankings remain the same: Idle Clemson, Air Force (beat Wyoming 20-14), Florida State (shut out Wake Forest 31-0), Nevada (beat BYU 27-13), Arizona (edged Cal at home, 10-9), and USC (beat up on Washington State 50-16).

Next weekend's intra-top 25 matchups include #6 Stanford at #2 Oregon, #10 Florida at #3 Alabama, #14 Miami at #20 Clemson, and of course #5 Oklahoma vs. #19 Texas in the Red River Rivalry (né Shootout). Six teams (#8 Nebraska, #11 Arkansas, #15 Utah, #17 South Carolina, #18 Kansas State, and #24 Arizona) are idle.

Week 4 Thursday & Friday Games: Miami defense impresses, TCU defense does not

The #17 Miami Hurricanes crushed the Pitt Panthers 31-3 on Thursday, while the #2 TCU Horned Frogs handled SMU 41-24. But there was a world of difference in defensive performance.

Both teams had to overcome two interceptions by their quarterbackes, Jacory Harris and Andy Dalton. But Miami's D dominated from start to finish while TCU's looked vulnerable to the run, allowing 139 yards from SMU's Zach Line. Miami shut down Dion Lewis though Ray Graham did finish with an even 100.

The Horned Frog defense came up with a big interception return TD to seal the game, but overall they didn't look like a top five defense, nor did TCU make a great case for being in the national title game should they go undefeated.

If their defense continues to play like they did against Pitt, Miami appears to have a good shot at the ACC title and therefore a BCS bowl. Pittsburgh didn't lose any ground in the Big East for the loss, but they need to find some offense or they will have zero chance of winning the league.

In short, Miami's stock went up, and maybe SMU's too, while TCU's fell a bit and Pitt's took a dive.

 

Week 4 Preview, Odds, and Predictions: Arkansas-Alabama a national title eliminator?

In our pre-season top 120 we boldly ranked Arkansas #3 to Alabama's #4, and with the Razorbacks at least on par with the Tide and playing them at home, we picked them to win a tight game. Arkansas was our surprise pick to win the SEC and possibly the national title. 

Three weeks into the season and things have changed a bit. The Razorbacks haven't faltered, starting out 3-0 with a big last-minute win over Georgia last Saturday, but overall they haven't shown as big of a leap of improvement as we thought they might. They scored 44 on Tennessee Tech to TCU's 65, though one can hardly complain about not running up the score. But beating Louisiana-Monroe 31-7 was hardly the work of a national champion, and they should have held their two-touchdown lead on Georgia instead of needing last-minute heroics from Ryan Mallet. Arkansas now stands at #8 in our weekly top 25.

Alabama has done just the opposite. Everyone knew they'd be good but even without Mark Ingram and Marcell Dareus in their first two games they were as good as advertised, beating San Jose State 48-3 and Penn State 24-3. But when the two came back, they blitzed Duke 62-13, suggesting their offense has improved even more than we thought. Though they still rank at #4 in our top 25, they're a tougher #4 than we reviewed them pre-season.

So if we still pick Arkansas to win this game it won't be because we consider them the better team. It will have to be due to home field advantage, or simply be an upset pick.

Here's our preview of week four in the college football world. This set of games is the weakest yet, as teams seemed to have saved their cupcake opponents for September 25th, hoping for a breather before conference games start. As noted before the Big Ten is particularly guilty, but there are a handful of interesting contests over the next three days.

Thursday September 23

• Crossroads Contest: #17 Miami (1-1) at Pittsburgh (1-1)
  Vegas line/spread: Miami by 3 1/2
  Analysis: Both teams need a win here to prevent their season from starting in a really disappointing fashion. Pitt was upset by Utah so they would seem to be in a worse situation should they lose, but the Panthers have a pattern lately of coming back from early adversity. The Canes' expecations were so high that going 1-2 might be a psychological killer. Miami lost to Ohio State in a sloppy performance and QB Jacory Harris needs to show he's better than last year, but so does Pitt's star RB Dion Lewis, who has been bottled up so far. Neither team has defeated a I-A opponent yet. Both teams' conferences look weak so a loss won't kill either teams' BCS bowl chances but the emotional effects of starting the season off on a wrong foot shouldn't be underestimated. While Pitt often falters early, Miami should be ready to go after beating themselves up over the Ohio State loss.
  Strength Power Rating pick: Miami by 14
  Prediction: Miami 36, Pittsburgh 27

Friday September 24

• BCS Buster Game A: #2 TCU (3-0) at SMU (2-1)
  Vegas line/spread: TCU by 17 1/2
  Analysis: Every game is important for TCU; they have to win of course, but they also have to beat the spread and look dominant, particularly in Friday games where they'll be on a national stage. There isn't much respect for the SMU football program despite their recent resurgence, so no one will care in the long run that the Horned Frogs beat them, but if they see Andy Dalton and gang run them into the ground it will at least make an impression. For SMU it's another chance to move the program forward, but TCU is probably more motivated.
  Strength Power Rating pick: TCU by 15
  Prediction: TCU 36, SMU 14

Saturday September 25

• National Title Eliminator: #4 Alabama (3-0) at #8 Arkansas (3-0)
  Vegas line/spread: Alabama by 7
  Analysis: From the pre-season vantage point this is one of the key contests of the year, the first such big game since Boise State-Virginia Tech. Though as we stated Arkansas hasn't lived up to our top five ranking, they've moved up in the other polls to stand at #10 in the AP. And as noted in the intro, we no longer consider Arkansas the better team. They might win due to home field advantage, but even that isn't nearly enough according to the early-season Strength Power Rating, which predicts a blowout Alabama victory. That's the range of possibilities for this game: anywhere from a narrow Razorback upset win to a dominant showing by the Crimson Tide. Should we stick to our guns and take the Razorbacks, or go with the evidence before us for the season so far? We'll do both, reflecting our current thinking and our pre-season mindset. This way we can take credit no matter what happens, right?
  Strength Power Rating pick: Alabama by 27
  Prediction (reason prevails): Alabama 31, Arkansas 17
  Prediction (sticking to our guns): Arkansas 27, Alabama 26
   
  
• Battle of the SEC Star Newcomers: #13 South Carolina (3-0) at #12 Auburn (3-0)
  Vegas line/spread: Auburn by 3
  Analysis: While neither team has really exceeded expectations so far, both have discovered incredible new talent: for South Carolina, freshman Marcus Lattimore rushed for 182 yards against Georgia, while Auburn's quarterback Cameron Newton had 171 in the Tigers' opener. As a passer he's showing some weakness, with three interceptions, but so has South Carolina's Stephen Garcia who has just 2 TD passes so far. Both teams are looking pretty strong on defense and weak on offense. The Tigers have already won a few close games this year and I have just a bit more confidence in them than the Gamecocks to be able to score points.
  Strength Power Rating pick: South Carolina by 5
  Prediction: Auburn 20, South Carolina 17 OT
   
  
• SEC-ACC Challenge: West Virginia (3-0) at #14 LSU (3-0)
  Vegas line/spread: LSU by 10
  Analysis: While the Big Ten plays a nearly all-MAC schedule, the SEC has two big conference games and another strong inter-conference matchup. West Virginia is as good of a bet as any to win the Big East and go to a BCS bowl game, and beating LSU would gives them hopes for something even bigger. The Tigers have been somewhat overlooked as a possible SEC and national title contender but they control their own destiny just like every other SEC power. They've already dispatched an ACC title hopeful, beating depleted North Carolina 30-24. Noel Devine has been workmanlike, with 100+ yards each game so far, but LSU responds with Stevan Ridley, who had 159 against Vanderbilt. The Mountaineers last road outing was a near-loss to 0-3 Marshall, and LSU's defense is looking pretty strong.
  Strength Power Rating pick: LSU by 16
  Prediction: LSU 23, West Virginia 10
   
  
• BCS Buster Game B: Oregon State (1-1) at #1 Boise State (2-0)
  Vegas line/spread: Boise State by 17
  Analysis: The Broncos are getting remarkable respect as 17 point favorites, but the Beavers' tepid 35-28 win over Louisville might have something to do with that. Boise State's last chance to impress fell a bit flat after Virginia Tech lost to I-AA James Madison, so they need to show their mettle against another BCS conference foe. Also key is the fact that TCU already beat the Beavers 30-21; both that spread and and Vegas line are numbers to watch to see if Boise State's stock is going to rise or fall after this game. Oregon State has different ideas of course, hoping for an upset that will jump-start their thus-far disappointing year. In the AP photo above, Oregon State paints their practice field Smurf-blue to get ready to play on the road.
  Strength Power Rating pick: Boise State by 27
  Prediction: Boise State 41, Oregon State 20
   
  
• Proving Ground: #9 Stanford (3-0) at Notre Dame (1-2)
  Vegas line/spread: Stanford by 4 1/2
  Analysis: The Irish are only 1-2—all against the Big Ten—but lost two very close games to Michigan and Michigan State. Stanford hasn't been tested yet and could be the best team in the country if you believe early power rating results. This game will prove a lot about how good Stanford is and whether Notre Dame still has a shot at a good season. A big Stanford win would also boost Andrew Luck's Heisman chances. The Irish have a chance to turn their season around but I think psychology is against them as they've suffered two heartbreaking losses in a row while Stanford is flying high and full of confidence.
  Strength Power Rating pick: Stanford by 33
  Prediction: Stanford 45, Notre Dame 23

 

Conference Titles for Arizona's Stoops and South Carolina's Spurrier? Not so fast

Rivals' front page features a couple of articles on coaches who might finally get "over the hump" in their conferences and capture the crown, or at least win their division. First, Mike Stoops "has his Arizona Wildcats thinking they can finally earn their first trip to the Rose Bowl" and Steve Spurrier "may finally lead South Carolina to the SEC East crown." I have to say that the odds for both teams still appear to be slim.

South Carolina: Spurrier probably falls short again

First, take the South Carolina Gamecocks. They're 3-0 so far, but that was expected against a schedule that included Southern Miss and Furman. They looked good in beating Georgia certainly, but it's really Florida's offensive woes that have caused speculation that the Old Head Ball Coach might finally win the SEC East.

The rest of the division can probably be ruled out. Georgia and Tennessee's 1-2 starts put them at a disadvantage, while Kentucky and Vanderbilt are rarely taken seriously as contenders. That leaves South Carolina and Florida. But the Gators avoid playing Auburn and Arkansas, two teams the Gamecocks must contend with. Both play Alabama, and Florida faces LSU. We're projecting 3 losses for South Carolina and just one for Florida, but it's not hard to see a scenario where the head-to-head meeting decides the division winner. While South Carolina could prove good enough to challenge the Gators, that meeting is in the Swamp, a distinct advantage for Florida.

Here's what we wrote about South Carolina: "it appears to be another good-to-mediocre year for Spurrier and crew unless they pull a surprise out of the hat—for example, if Lattimore does a convincing Adrian Peterson impression." Lattimore has been pretty amazing, and Florida has looked awkward to say the least. But the teams don't meet until mid-November and by then the Gators will have righted the ship. And the Gamecocks have yet to show me they're going to be much better than the 7-5 we forecast for them.

In short, I think it's premature to say South Carolina has a great shot at winning the East. I need to see more; a win over Auburn this Saturday would be a good starting point.

Arizona Wildcats: Win over Iowa not much to crow about

Arizona upset the Hawkeyes last Saturday, and jumped 10 spots in the AP poll—you'd think they had just beaten Alabama. True, Iowa was in the AP top ten, but we considered Iowa a borderline top 25 team—and now that Arizona has beaten them, they too are a borderline top 25 team.

This talk of winning the Pac-10 and going to the Rose Bowl seems extremely premature. It's nice to want to fire up your team and have lofty goals, but Arizona has such a history of running hot and cold, I would think Mike Stoops would be better served by telling his players to keep their nose to the grindstone and not even think they're good enough to win the Pac-10—that they have to play above themselves to go to the Rose Bowl. Which is the truth, I believe, because there's no way this team is better than Stanford and Oregon.

Arizona dominated the first half 27-7, after which the pollsters went to bed convinced that the Wildcats were the second coming of the 1998 team. 21 of those points came via an interception return, a kick return, and shortly after a blocked punt, giving the Arizona offense 6 points to its credit. Iowa dominated most of the 2nd half and tied the game, then Nick Foles had a great drive and the Wildcat defense came alive to secure the win, but overall it didn't give the impression that they were much better than Iowa if at all. The game was played in Tuscon.

Meanwhile, Stanford and Oregon are tearing up the field. Arizona plays both of those teams on the road. Washington looks like a win now, but they will be a challenge along with Cal, Oregon State, and USC. Arizona appears right now to be a strong candidate for third place in the Pac-10, but it seems there is a clear top two in the conference and beating Iowa by a touchdown at home just doesn't put them up there yet. Convincing wins over Cal and Oregon State in the next few weeks would work to change my mind on that, but Stanford will be their very first tough road game so it might take beating the Cardinal before I'm on the Wildcats-may-be-in-the-Rose bandwagon.

 

Heisman Trophy 2010 - week 3: Ingram not out of it yet

Last year's Heisman winner Mark Ingram has been all but forgotten as the season started since his missed the first two games. With Denard Robinson running all over the place from the Michigan quarterback slot and Alabama backup RB Trent Richardson making some Heisman noise of his own, Ingram looked unlikely to even match the #3 placing that Jason White, Matt Leinart, and Tim Tebow did the year following their wins.

But last week Ingram came roaring back from his knee injury, going 48 yards on his first carry of the season and finishing with 151 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 9 carries. True it was against Duke, but the message was clear: Ingram will remain a force to contend with in the Heisman race, and if he keeps playing like he did last Saturday he might not have to settle for the #3 spot.

This week's list, in rough order (click here for the most recent update):

• Denard Robinson, QB, Michigan [added week one]
  53-76 (69.7%) 671 yd 4 TD 1 int; 76 rsh 559 yd (7.4 ave) 0 fmb 
• Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama [added pre-season]
  9 rsh 151 yd (16.8 ave) 2 TD 0 fmb
  
• Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State [added week two]
  43-68 (63.2%) 585 yd 5 TD 1 int;  4 rsh -20 yd ( -5 ave) 1 fmb
• Terrelle Pryor, QB, Ohio State [added week three]
  51-81 (62.9%) 715 yd 6 TD 2 int; 36 rsh 165 yd (4.6 ave) 0 fmb
  

Denard Robinson continues to fly solo at #1, well ahead of the rest of the pack, as for the third straight week he caused his team to win. His only drawbacks are his higher chance of injury due to his team's reliance on him, and the question of how good Michigan really is if they can't easily put away a I-AA foe like UMass. Michigan plays Bowling Green this weekend.

Ingram has a big game coming up against Arkansas, and it could get him back in the race if he has another superb outing. Kellen Moore's Boise State team handled Wyoming easily and Moore did well but had an uncharacteristic interception. They face Oregon State in a game that's crucial for Boise and Moore's hopes this year.

We've added Ohio State's Terrelle Pryor this week in favor over Arkansas' Ryan Mallet and Stanford's Andrew Luck. Pryor has had two solid passing games (3 TDs against Marshall, 16 straight completions last week against Ohio) and one great rushing performance (113 yards against Miami), even as his overall stats aren't astounding. As long as Ohio State keeps winning Pryor is going to be a key contender even if his stats don't jump off the page.

The win Pryor led over Miami was a big-time win, at least on par with Mallet's win over Georgia though the latter had the "comeback" intangible to it. Mallet has over 1,000 passing yards already and Luck has 10 TDs against 0 interceptions, but both have to prove themselves. Mallet's Arkansas squad hosts Alabama, and he'll be in the race for sure if they win. If not, Luck can dazzle the nation against Notre Dame, which is always a high-profile foe. Waiting in the wings should both fail are Kansas State's Daniel Thomas (#2 in the nation in rushing) and Nevada's Colin Kaepernick, who does have stats that jump off the page (13 total touchdowns). Even Nebraska freshman Taylor Martinez could be in the mix this year as there are a lot of great candidates.

Get Ready for the Big Ten - M.A.C. Challenge

Every year in college basketball the Big Ten and ACC conferences hold the Big Ten-ACC Challenge, where each team plays a team from the other conference. While the ACC has won the lion's share of games, there are always good teams and good matchups from both powerhouse basketball leagues, and the pairings give a boost to everyone's pre-season schedule strength and fan interest is created.

Now let's look at college football. Though I've not seen it officially declared, there is a de facto Big Ten-M.A.C. Challenge this weekend (you have to say it like you would say ACC, not as "Mac") as a total of eight Big Ten teams take on Mid-American (MAC) conference foes on Saturday.

The MAC is no ACC, even in football and despite how troubled the ACC is this year. This weekend is either designed to be, or by coincidence just is, a bye week for the Big Ten, a weekend where every team in the conference should pad their record with a win. Two Big Ten teams that don't play MAC squads instead play teams from the FCS (Division I-AA), and one other, Illinois, has an actual bye week. And unlike the Big Ten-ACC clashes, in which home court is fairly distributed between the leagues, this one's a dead giveaway: the MAC team will be the visitor in every single matchup.

Big Ten vs. the MAC on 9/25/2010: The Run-down

Big Ten team	09 Success	Opponent	Conf	09 Success	Spread	Forecast
Ohio State	#5	Eastern Mich	MAC	#120	-44	54-0
Iowa	8	Ball State	MAC	115	-28	38-10
Penn State	11	Temple	MAC	50	-14	29-14
Northwestern	28	Central Mich	MAC	18	-7	27-25
Purdue	48	Toledo	MAC	99	-12	33-16
Minnesota	58	N. Illinois	MAC	76	-4	27-21
Michigan	80	Bowling Green	MAC	66	-25	40-14
Indiana	94	Akron	MAC	105	-22.5	34-17
Wisconsin	17	Austin Peay	FCS	n/a	n/a	52-6
Michigan St	61	N. Colorado	FCS	n/a	n/a	42-6
Illinois	93	idle	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a

The chart above shows the Big Ten's week four schedule, listing their opponent's conference and both team's Success ratings from last year. The Vegas line (spread) and our rudimentary forecast for the game are included.

As if things needed to be made maximally lopsided, the Big Ten's best team, Ohio State, is paired against last season's worst FBS team, Eastern Michigan. Iowa vs. Ball State is only marginally more competitive. While those are the only games with 100 ranking positions difference, Purdue is over 50 slots better than Toledo.

In two cases the MAC team actually did better than the Big Ten team last year, but those are illusory. Michigan with Denard Robinson is a lot better than last year's team while Bowling Green is 1-2 so far; the Wolverines are a 25 point favorite. And Central Michigan was 12-2 last year but lost star QB Dan LeFevour and is no longer a top 25 team. Still, it could be a close game with Northwestern. Among eight games, the MAC stands a good chance to pick up a win, maybe two, but more than that would be a surprise.

Other good matchups? Penn State vs. Temple might be a much better game than last year's rankings would indicate, but we won't know for sure until they hit the field. Minnesota vs. Northern Illinois should be tight, as the Gophers lost to an FCS team this year. But while Indiana-Akron pairs two equally hapless teams from last year, Indiana is 2-0 and Akron 0-3 so far and the Zips aren't expected to compete.

In the FCS games, Wisconsin against I-AA Austin Peay should be a bit better than Ohio State-Eastern Michigan, and Michigan State vs. Northern Colorado could be closer still—if five touchdowns is "close." With coach Mark Dantonio recovering from a heart attack, the Spartans could be fired up to bury the Bears.

Some will blame "The BCS" for weekends like this, but basically this is what happens when you expand the college football schedule from 11 to 12 games: the pre-season has more fluff. As conference play gets tougher for the bigger and better leagues, the non-conference schedule can't be too difficult or destructive. Athletic directors used to scheduling 11 games know that to have a winning season six wins are necessary, and a cupcake win is as good as a tough opponent. So it's not the BCS: it's the 12-game season and requirement to have a winning season and get to a bowl game, coupled with the allowance of one FCS win, that has diluted schedules recently.

This year has been a lot better than in the past in the first few weeks. But the fourth week is...pretty weak. And the Big Ten is leading the charge in that respect. What if there were a Big Ten-ACC Challenge in football as well as basketball? The Big Ten should push for that as they could expect to do a lot better than they do in basketball, and next season they'll have 12 teams and could match all of them up. It would be great for fans but, alas, it might mean that someone would miss a bowl game. And who would the MAC teams play that weekend?

FCS (Division I-AA) Top 25, week 3

The FCS top 25, even by week three, has only a handful of undefeated teams thanks to playing FBS opponents, particularly since the FBS went to a 12-game schedule. To better get a handle on how these teams are doing, I'm going to list both their overall record, and their record against just FCS (or lower division) opponents.

This week the ranked teams were ravaged by losses so there were plenty of teams falling out and a lot of big moves.

The SportsRatings FCS Top 25 after week three

                             Record
lw  #   Team                All  FCS  Losses/Big wins
1   1   James Madison       2-0  1-0 w@VirginiaTech 21-16     
2   2   Jacksonville St     3-0  2-0 w@OleMiss 49-48       
3   3   Villanova           2-1  2-0 L@Temple 31-24       
5   4   Richmond            1-1  1-0 L@Virginia 34-13; wElon 27-21   
9   5   Delaware            3-0  3-0 wSDakotaSt 26-3      
10  6   Appalachian St      3-0  3-0      
8   7   Massachusetts       2-1  2-0 L@Michigan 42-37, wWMary 27-23    
15  8   William & Mary      2-1  2-1 L@UMass 27-23       
23  9   Stephen F Austin    2-1  2-0 L@TexAM 48-7; w@UNI22-20   
20  10  Eastern Washington  2-1  2-0 L@Nevada 49-24; wMontana 36-27    
17  11  Northern Arizona    1-1  1-0 L@ASU 41-20      
18  12  Pennsylvania        1-0  1-0      
--  13  Texas State         2-1  2-0 L@Houston 68-28; wCalPoly 21-12
21  14  South Carolina St   2-1  2-0 L@GTech 41-10      
4   15  Northern Iowa       1-1  1-1 L@SFAustin 22-20; wNDakotaSt 16-9      
24  16  Youngstown St       2-1  2-0 L@PennSt 44-14     
25t 17  North Dakota St     2-1  2-0 L@UNI 16-9; w@Kansas 6-3
25t 18  South Dakota        2-1  1-0 L@UCF 38-7; w@Minnesota 41-38
13  19  Cal Poly            2-1  2-1 L@TexasSt 21-12; wMontana 35-33
--  20  SE Missouri St      2-1  2-0 L@BallSt 27-10; wSoIll 24-21
--  21  Illinois State      2-1  2-0 L@Nwestern 37-3; w@SDakotaSt 24-14
--  22  Sacramento St       2-1  2-0 L@Stanford 52-17; wWeber 24-17
22  23  Furman              1-1  1-0 L@SCarolina 38-19    
7   24  Elon                1-2  1-1 L@Richmond 27-21, @Duke 41-27 
6   25  Southern Illinois   1-2  1-1 L SEMoSt 24-21, @Illinois 35-3
        out:
11  --  Liberty             2-1  1-1 L@RMorris 30-23; w@BallState 27-23      
12  --  New Hampshire       1-2  1-1 L@Pitt 38-16, @RhodeIsland 28-25    
14  --  South Dakota St     0-2  0-2 L@Delaware 26-3, IllSt 24-14 
16  --  Weber St            1-2  1-1 L@BC 38-20, @SacSt 24-17   
19  --  Montana             1-2  1-2 L@Cal-Poly 35-33, @EWash 36-27
25t --  Gardner-Webb        2-1  1-1 L@WCarolina 28-14; w@Akron 38-37ot

James Madison and Jacksonville State hold onto the top spots, as coaches' #2 Villanova holds down third. The Dukes didn't play this week and Jacksonville State beat brand new program Georgia State in overtime. So much for having a breather after the Ole Miss win and edging Chattanooga.

It's interesting to compare our rankings to the coaches' poll. Many of the same teams are there, and they had similar big moves as highly-ranked teams lost. Northern Iowa fell to #15 in their poll, too, but from #10 not #4 as in ours. They dropped Cal Poly from #18 to #22; we dropped them from 13 to 19. The coaches were much kinder to previously-#7-Elon, bumping them down just four spots to #11 while we put them all the way at #24.

We dropped six teams out of the rankings while the coaches kept Liberty, New Hampshire, Weber State, and Montana in. South Dakota State fell out of their poll, and Gardner-Webb was just outside last week's coaches rankings. Due to a three-way tie for 25th place last week only four new teams replace the six we dropped out, bringing us back to a proper 25.

Our rankings stick to the "you beat them, you're ahead of them" philosophy for teams with similar records. But losses to FBS teams don't count when comparing records, so a 2-loss team will be placed ahead of a 1-loss team that they beat, if one of the two losses was to an FBS team.

Tune in next week for more shake-ups.

 

2010 Projected Final BCS Standings (after week 3): Tipping Point To Nebraska

This year we are projecting the Final (pre-bowl) BCS Standings each week, based on our pre-season standings and using the projected winner from each game. Every week these projections will be updated using the actual results for that week. For the most recent projection click here.

Here is the projection using our pre-season prognostications combined with results through week 3:

2010 Projected Final* BCS Rankings (*pre-Bowl) - after week 3
LW	#	Team	record	BCS bowl
2	1.	Arkansas	13-0	Title game
10	2.	Nebraska	13-0	Title game
3	3.	Wisconsin	12-0	Rose
4	4.	Boise St	12-0	Fiesta
6	5.	Oregon	12-0	Rose
5	6.	TCU	12-0
1	7.	Oklahoma	12-1	Fiesta
8	8.	Alabama	11-1	Sugar
7	9.	Ohio State	11-1	Sugar
11	10.	Virginia Tech	11-2	Orange
12	11.	Miami FL	10-2
13	12.	Florida	11-2
17	13.	Stanford	10-2
23	14.	Texas	10-2
9	15.	Texas Tech	10-2
16	16.	Auburn	10-2
19	17.	Utah	10-2
22	18.	Washington	9-3
20	19.	Penn State	9-3
14	20.	Iowa	9-3
18	21.	Pittsburgh	10-2	Orange
--	22.	Arizona	9-3
24	23.	LSU	8-4
21	24.	North Carolina	8-4
--	25.	Florida St	8-5

(Dropped out: #15 Houston, #25 West Virginia)

Using this projection, we get the following probable bowl pairings (favorite in bold):

BCS Championship Game: Arkansas vs. Nebraska
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl: Virgina Tech vs. Pittsburgh
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Boise State

This week's notes:

• Nebraska the new projected national title winner

Just a week after Oklahoma took over that designation, Nebraska pushes them out of the national title game altogether. The 'Huskers dominant win over Washington coupled with Oklahoma's narrow victory over Air Force tipped Nebraska's Strength Rating to be just above Oklahoma's. This revised the Big Twelve championship game to favor Nebraska, putting them in the BCS title game against Arkansas. In the coming week this relationship might tip back and forth depending on who plays better. Arkansas of course has to beat Alabama this weekend or there will be another major shift, and that one would be a little more permanent.

Oklahoma drops to #7 and falls into the Fiesta Bowl as the Big Twelve's representative there, selected as the "replacement" for Nebraska. Picking the 2nd team last of all the bowls, the Fiesta could be left with Big East projected winner Pitt, but if Virginia Tech manages to be the ACC rep then the Orange won't set up a rematch with Boise State, so instead it could be a replay of the classic 2006 Fiesta Bowl with Oklahoma taking on an undefeated Boise team again.

• Mid-major report: Boise a bit closer, TCU drops a spot

Boise State edged closer to Wisconsin but remained #4. The Badgers held off Arizona State 20-19 and Boise drubbed Wyoming 51-6, but what really made the race tighter was Iowa's loss to Arizona coupled with Nevada's upset of California. The Wolf Pack could give Boise a quality WAC opponent if they keep winning, and next week a win over BYU would help further the divide between Boise and TCU. The Horned Frogs crushed Baylor 45-10 but again, Arizona's upset of Iowa propped Oregon up to #5 as the Ducks are projected to run the table in the Pac-10 and the Wildcats make a fatter victim now. Oregon's 69-0 win didn't hurt them in the polls but won't be a factor at the end of the year.

• Texas Tech, Iowa, Houston, and Pitt the losers this week

Texas Tech's shot at a BCS bowl never seemed quite real, and with the loss to Texas (an upset according to the projections) their chances have become nearly nil barring any future unseen developments. Their signature win (other than Texas) was to be a final-week victory over a possibly undefeated Houston, but the Cougars were crushed by UCLA 31-13 and Case Keenum was lost for the year, both developments that make the Houston contest a non-entity.

Tech falls from #9 to a still-respectable but out-of-BCS-bowl range #15, while Houston drops out of the rankings all together. Like we said, don't expect them to return as their future suddenly looks bleak. Iowa's future doesn't look bad, but the loss to Arizona—where they gave away touchdowns on a kickoff, an interception return, and following a blocked punt—ruins their chances to sneak into a second straight BCS bowl with an upset of Wisconsin or Ohio State. Now such an upset will only put them into consideration but probably still leave them outside looking in. The Hawkeyes fall from #14 to #20 and their loss affects all other Big Ten teams including the Buckeyes who fall from #7 to #9.

Pittsburgh falls from #18 to #21 but unlike the others they didn't get upset this week. It was solely the upset losses by its opponents (Cincinnati lost to N.C. State and UConn lost to Temple) which decrease Pitt's schedule strength and harm the Panthers with the computers; West Virginia drops for the same reason. Still, Pittsburgh has the easiest path to a BCS bowl: winning the Big East. At this rate though they might not be in the top 25 of the final BCS standings when that happens; an upset win over Miami this Thursday would help turn that trend around.

• Winners: Texas, Stanford, Arizona...and Washington?

Texas jumps from a lowly #23 to #14. They're still expected to lose to Oklahoma and Nebraska, but they control their destiny probably all the way to the national title game. Stanford's powerful wins have increased their rating as they jump from #17 to #13. They haven't upset anyone since starting the year at #20 but their lopsided victories will help them in the human polls.

Arizona's win over Iowa puts them in the projection for the first time at #22. Their win boosts all other Pac-10 teams, too, including even Washington who got destroyed 56-21 by Nebraska. They move from #22 to #18 for the following "logic": They were expected to lose to Nebraska so the loss itself doesn't hurt them; the margin was bad but the computers don't look at that and if the Huskies have a good season it won't matter by the end for the human polls; and now that Nebraska is projected to finish 13-0, Washington's loss to them hurts less than it did when Nebraska was expected to be 12-1. So by losing big, Washington comes out a winner. They still have to win almost all of their remaining games which won't happen if Jake Locker doesn't complete more than 20% of his passes.

==================================================================

BCS Selection Rules for 2010-11
(simplified; full detail here):

• #1 and #2 teams go into BCS Championship game;

then, if still available:

• Rose Bowl gets Big 10, Pac 10 champs
• Sugar Bowl gets SEC champ
• Orange Bowl gets ACC champ
• Fiesta Bowl gets Big 12 champ

After automatic qualifiers have been placed, selections will be made in the following order:

• BCS #1 team is replaced
• BCS #2 team is replaced
• Sugar Bowl picks its 2nd team
• Orange Bowl picks its 2nd team
• Fiesta Bowl picks its 2nd team

All of the BCS conference champs must be selected, along with Notre Dame if in the top 8, any one other non-BCS-conference champ if in the top 12, and if still available the #3 and (in many cases) #4 teams in the BCS rankings.

First Power Rating of Season: Is Stanford the best team?

Three weeks into the season and the Strength Power Rating begins to make sense, offering early clues as to which teams might be superior. It's a bit tricky, of course. While most of the teams that rank highly are the usual suspects, there are several surprises, and early on it's not always easy to separate the fluke results from the true insights. In general, teams with only two games under their belt are suspect.

This is particularly true now that early schedules are so loaded with I-AA (FCS) teams. So instead of using the FBS-only version of the Strength rating, we'll look at the Cross-Division Strength Power Rating, which uses all games between all divisions.

Here's a look at the top ten through games of week 3 (9/18/2010):

  #  Team                         rec   Rating  Offense[rnk]  Defense[rnk]
  1. Stanford                     3-0    81.59   78.94 [  1]   -2.65 [ 31]
  2. Alabama                      3-0    80.80   66.71 [  5]  -14.08 [  3]
  3. Oregon                       3-0    74.87   63.08 [  7]  -11.78 [ 10]
  4. Boise St                     2-0    68.72   62.25 [  9]   -6.47 [ 19]
  5. Ohio State                   3-0    68.04   55.22 [ 28]  -12.82 [  6]
  6. Penn State                   2-1    64.47   47.55 [ 84]  -16.91 [  2]
  7. James Madison                2-0    63.44   51.43 [ 56]  -12.00 [  8]
  8. Arizona                      3-0    63.34   61.12 [ 11]   -2.21 [ 36]
  9. Nebraska                     3-0    63.05   57.91 [ 18]   -5.14 [ 21]
 10. Miami FL                     1-1    63.03   65.54 [  6]    2.51 [ 71]

It's no shocker that Alabama, Oregon, and Ohio State are in the top five, as they've outscored their opponents 134-19, 189-13, and 124-38. But Stanford at #1 might take people by surprise. Remember that unlike many early-season power ratings (such as Sagarin's) there is no modification using last year's results; these are unbiased using this season's very few games. Stanford has won 52-17 over Sacramento State, 35-0 at UCLA, and 68-24 over Wake Forest. It's the middle game that helps them the most, as the Bruins beat Houston 35-13 last weekend. As the weeks progress we'll get a better idea of how good the Cardinal are but early on they look promising. Their defensive ranking isn't great, though, unlike Alabama and Oregon who are in the top ten in both categories.

Boise State at #4 suggests that even this early on they deserve their high ranking in the polls. Their high pre-season AP ranking was based on last year's team, most of whom is back. But even after just two games they objectively rank among the very best teams. This is despite James Madison's win over Virginia Tech; the I-AA Dukes come in at #7, with the Hokies at #17. Instead of downgrading Boise, the numbers suggest we should be upgrading James Madison. It's very doubtful James Madison will remain this high as the Virginia Tech performance will almost certainly be the best of their season, but for now we can assume they are the best team in the FCS and they could possibly be among the top 25 in all of Division I.

Some other interesting placings: Are they fluke or foresight?

• Oklahoma State at #11. The Cowboys are 3-0 which we expected even as we ranked them #69 in the nation pre-season. But their offense has been amazing so far (#3) as Kendall Hunter has come back to 2008 form and QB Brandon Weeden is a revelation. The defense, with only 3 starters back, might be worse than expected however, and they struggled to beat Troy. Against tough Big Twelve teams (Texas A&M comes to town in two weeks) we'll see if this high ranking lasts. The I-A only Strength Power Rating has them at a more subdued #29.
• Temple at #18. The Owls started the year with three games we saw as tossups, with even likelihood of a 1-2 or 2-1 showing. Instead they've gone 3-0 and there are only two more predicted (pre-season) losses on the schedule. Two wins were very close and could have easily been losses, so it's not like the Owls are really outperforming, but their competition is doing well enough that Temple ranks in the top 25. One of those probable losses is next week at Penn State but the other, Northern Illinois, is struggling so Temple could potentially be 11-1. 10-2 or 9-3 is more likely but the Owls are now our favorite to win the MAC.
• Kansas State at #21. The Wildcats are 3-0, pretty good for a team we saw as having between 4 and 6 wins this year. Only one win was an upset (UCLA) and that was foreseen as a tossup game anyway, so in that respect they aren't ourperforming. But their top 25 ranking here suggests they might be a lot better than we thought. We knew Daniel Thomas was going to be good (we had him #12 on our 1,000-yard rushers list) but he's halfway to 1,000 after just three games. The bad news for K-State, though, is the disparity between their offense and defense (#4 and #181) which suggests their rating is a bit off-track and may come back down to earth, probably closer to their current ranking in the FBS-only Strength Rating (#47).
• UCLA has the #268 ranked offense and the #1 defense. Both of these are clearly ridiculous; the top defense ranking is the result of holding Stanford to "just" 35 and Houston to 13. The latter came because Houston's first and second string quarterbacks were knocked out of the game. UCLA's results have been all over the place and when that happens with just a few games played, it makes for wonky results. Houston, incidentally, is their polar opposite, with the #2 offense and #251 defense. They'll regress to the mean as well.
• Texas at #34 and Florida at #36. Neither of these teams has been playing like the pre-season top five squads they were supposed to be according to the pollsters. But this low? Poor offense has been the main reason the teams are stalling and this is reflected in their rankings. This early on, a bad game or two will drag a team's rating down below where they should reasonably be.
• Oklahoma at #45. Lest you think Texas is doomed in the Red River Shootout, witness Oklahoma's #45 ranking. The Sooners have been schizophrenic, nearly losing twice at home (scoring just 31 and 27) but pounding Florida State 47-17. Since twice the offense was terrible, this causes the algorithm to resolve this discrepancy by severely downgrading FSU's defense (to #303!!) while the Sooner offense places 175th. While this is obviously false, it gives an idea of which side of the ball should be held responsible for their close calls, as the defense ranks #16. In the I-A only Strength ratings Oklahoma is #12, which is odd since they've played only I-A foes so there shouldn't be such a marked difference, but these things happen. Over time the two ratings tend to became very similar as far as the I-A teams are concerned.
• Harvard at #44. Could the Crimson be better than the Crimson and Creme? Not anytime soon(er). Harvard is 1-0 with a 34-6 win over Holy Cross and based on just this, they're as overrated as Oklahoma is underrated. It's another example of early flukish results you'll find, especially among teams with very few games.

Houston Takes Huge Hit In Loss To UCLA With Keenum, Turner Out

The Houston Cougars were one of many non-BCS teams hoping to make it to a BCS bowl game this year. The Cougars, 10-4 last season, ranked 35th in the SportsRatings pre-season top 120 and were projected to finish between 8-4 and 11-1 in the regular season. A loss to Texas Tech in their final game seemed likely, and three other contests were deemed "tossups" that would determine whether they could enter that final game undefeated. With some luck, they could beat the Red Raiders, finish 12-0, and win the Conference-USA title game. If that happened they would have a fair chance at playing in one of the most lucrative bowl games early in 2011.

Quarterback Case Keenum was one of the big reasons for optimism this year. He threw for 5,671 yards and 44 touchdowns in 2009 and returned needing just over 4,000 yards and 33 touchdown passes to become the all-time leader in both categories. He was one of many pre-season favorites for the Heisman Trophy.

Obviously the Cougars depended a lot on Keenum, but not the way the Texas Longhorns depended on Colt McCoy last year; Texas had no proven backup, while the Cougars had Cotton Turner, who completed 75% of his attempts last season. We even wrote in our pre-season profile of Houston: "in case Case pulls a Sam Bradford the Cougar system shouldn't completely fall apart without him" in reference to Turner.

Thus when Keenum suffered a concussion last week against UTEP, Turner stepped in an did a exemplary job, completing 9 of 10 passes for 69 yards and a touchdown. Keenum returned this week against UCLA, the first of their three "tossup" games.

Unfortunately for the Cougars, against UCLA everything that could go wrong with this scenario, did. Keenum was injured again, the same way he got injured against UTEP—trying to make a tackle after throwing an interception. But this time the damage was worse: Keenum tore his ACL and will be out for the season.

Turner stepped in again but he, too, had to leave the game with an injury, and later the Cougars found that he'll miss the rest of the year, too.

Houston lost the game 31-13, destroying their hopes for a BCS bowl. But the effects of the game will linger far beyond.

Even without Keenum they might have yet bettered last year's success. Having a proven backup and one of the best receiving corps in college football, the Cougars still would have been a favorite to win the C-USA title. But without Keenum and Turner their chances for a great year take another step down. The defense looks no better than last year, but the hope was that the offense would outrun just about everybody. Even if the passing game slows down a notch, wins are in jeopardy.

Terrance Broadway will take over and he appears to be decent enough; he completed 5 of 8 passes and threw one touchdown pass, Houston's only touchdown of the game. Still, he's a freshman and wasn't supposed to play at all this year. Now an 8-4 year appears to be the Cougars' best hope, and in worst-case a winning season could be in jeopardy.

Broadway will get a lot of experience over the next few months, and he'll be around for a while. So much like Sam Bradford's injuries prepared Landry Jones for this season with the Sooners, so too will Keenum and Turner's prepare Broadway for the years to come.

I wrote at the end of last season an advice column to all college football programs, entitled, Have A Backup Quarterback Who Isn't A Freshman. Houston followed that plan and it still didn't save them. Perhaps their should be a corrollary: Tell Your Quarterback—Don't Try To Tackle After An Interception.

SportsRatings Top 25 Week 3: The Top Ten Impresses

Welcome to the SportsRatings College Football Top 25 for the week ending September 18, 2010. This is a subjective ranking, not a computer power rating. It does attempt to use several rules some of which include honoring head-to-head results whenever possible, and giving more consideration to teams with wins over other top 25 teams.

In week three, every team in the top ten was impressive in one way or another, leading to a difficult and minor reshuffling of teams.

#1 Boise State handled Wyoming on the road easily, 51-6. This surpassed Texas' home win over the Cowboys (34-7) and gave us no reason to tinked with the Broncos #1 rating—for now. TCU faces Wyoming at home on October 9th and they'll have to be similarly dominant to stick around the very top slots. Their 45-10 win over Baylor was good enough to hold on to #2.

#3 Oregon led 69-0 after three quarters and that was the final over I-AA Portland State, who was 2-9 last season. Alabama slaughtered Duke 62-13 and moves up a spot ahead of #5 Oklahoma, who struggled with #21 Air Force at home but prevailed 27-24. One one hand, that's twice that the Sooners have had trouble at home but on the other hand they're the only team with two wins over top 25 teams, so they stay in the top five.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week three 2010 (thru 9/18/2010)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Boise State	2-0
2	2	TCU	3-0
3	3	Oregon	3-0
5	4	Alabama	3-0
4	5	Oklahoma	3-0	wFSU 47-17, AirForce 27-24
8	6	Nebraska	3-0
7	7	Ohio State	3-0	wMiami 36-24
6	8	Arkansas	3-0
10	9	Stanford	3-0
9	10	Florida	3-0
13	11	Texas	3-0	w@TexasTech 24-14
14	12	Auburn	3-0	wClemson 27-24ot
16	13	South Carolina	3-0
17	14	LSU	3-0	w=UNC 30-24
12	15	Wisconsin	3-0
15	16	Texas A&M	3-0
18	17	Miami FL	1-1	L@OhioState 36-24
20	18	Utah	3-0
11	19	Texas Tech	2-1	L Texas 24-14
19	20	Clemson	2-1	L@Auburn 27-24ot
21	21	Air Force	2-1	L@Oklahoma 27-24
22	22	Florida St	2-1	L@Oklahoma 47-17
--	23	Nevada	3-0	wCal 52-31
--	24	Arizona	3-0	wIowa 34-27
--	25	USC	3-0
		out:
23	--	North Carolina	0-2	L=LSU 30-24, GTech 30-24
24	--	California	2-1	L@Nevada 52-31
25	--	Iowa	2-1	L@Arizona 34-27

Nebraska jumps from #8 to #6 after pulling away from Washington 56-21 in Seattle. They jump #7 Ohio State who was very solid against Ohio, leading 34-0 at the half. The Buckeyes have a strong win over Miami, enough to move them ahead of Arkansas. The Razorbacks fall from #6 to #8 after almost losing to Georgia; however, the last-minute road SEC win would be considered a triumph for most teams.

Stanford continued to impress with a 68-24 crushing of Wake Forest, moving them ahead of #10 Florida. The Gators beat Tennessee 31-17, a lot less convincing than Oregon's 48-13 win a week earlier, but still a road SEC victory in a rivalry game.

Texas had the "upset" of the week in our rankings, beating former #11 Texas Tech and replacing them at that spot while the Red Raiders fall to #19 for losing at home. Auburn moves up two spots to #12 after edging Clemson in overtime; the losing Tigers drop just one spot from #19 to #20. In between the two Tiger teams, South Carolina and LSU move up three spots while Wisconsin drops three from #12 to #15. The Badgers needed a blocked extra point to preserve a 20-19 win over Arizona State. Texas A&M falls a spot to #16 after barely beating Florida International 27-20. Miami was idle and slides up to #17, and Utah moves up to #18 after taking their turn at crushing New Mexico, 56-14.

Air Force holds at #21 with the Oklahoma loss; they did a lot better against the Sooners than #22 Florida State. The Seminoles, like the Falcons earlier, defeated BYU easily 34-10.

Two weeks ago the #24 and #25 teams in the rankings lost, and it happened again this week. #24 California was manhandled by Nevada 52-31 and the Wolf Pack debut at #23. #25 Iowa fell behind Arizona 27-7 at the half but managed to tie the game before falling 34-27; the Wildcats enter at #24. A spot opened up with North Carolina suffering their second 30-24 loss and USC makes their 2010 debut. The Trojans were #37 pre-season and probably haven't even lived up to that with three tepid victories, but two of them were on the road and they were the choice among the dozen or so undefeated teams remaining that aren't already ranked. Given the track record of the #25 teams (none are still in the rankings) the Trojans have their work cut out for them.

Week 3 Highlights So Far: Nevada Tops Cal; Michigan escapes UMass; Nebraska rolls

• Nevada staked its claim to a Top 25 ranking Friday night, going to 3-0 after crushing Cal 52-31. Vai Taua and Colin Kaepernick combined for 299 rushing yards, offsetting Marvin Jones' 161 receiving yards. 
   
  
• Denard Robinson and Michigan held off 8th-ranked FCS team Massachusetts, 42-37. The Minutemen took a 17-7 lead but the Wolverines led 21-17 at the half. They extended the lead to 35-17 but three 4th-quarter touchdowns closed the gap. Quarterback Kyle Havens matched Robinson with two TD passes while Jonathan Hernandez and John Griffin's 210 combined yards nearly matched Michael Shaw and Robinson's combined 230.
    
  
• #8 Nebraska overpowered Washington 56-21; the Cornhuskers jumped to a 14-0 lead then the teams traded touchdowns for the rest of the half with Nebraska up 28-14 at the break. Nebraska needed just one play from scrimmage—an 80-yard Taylor Hernandez run—to score again; then Washington needed just two plays—a 33-yard run and 45-yard pass by Jake Locker—to add one themselves. That was the Huskies' last score, though. Roy Helu ran 65-yards a few plays later and Locker was intercepted for a 31-yard TD. Nebraska had three 100 yard rushers, led by Martinez' 139. Locker was just 4 of 20 passing with two interceptions.
   
  
• Holding On: #12 Wisconsin beat Arizona State 20-19 on a blocked extra point, and Oklahoma survived a comeback attempt by Air Force, winning 27-24
   
  
• Alabama destroyed Duke 62-13 as Mark Ingram had 152 yards on just 9 carries in his return, perhaps sending a message to those who think Trent Richardson is the better back (he had 61 yards on just 7 carries himself).
   
  
• Ryan Mallet completed a late touchdown drive to give Arkansas a 31-24 win at Georgia. Aaron Murray's 65-yard desparation heave at the end could have been caught but fell incomplete.
   
  
• Georgia Tech beat North Carolina 30-24, the same score that the depleted Tar Heels lost by two weeks ago to LSU.

 

Week 3 Preview, Odds, and Predictions: Is Texas a top five team? and other questions answered

Week three doesn't have the big games that week two did, but what it lacks in quality it makes up for it in quantity. There are at least ten compelling games this week as teams move away from the Division I-AA opponents—although six teams have found out even that isn't a guarantee. After this weekend we will have enough information to really get an idea of which teams are going to be good this year, and can start to let go of pre-season biases.

Here are a dozen of the most interesting games, all but one of them on September 18th:

1. Upset of the week: #13 Texas (2-0) at #11 Texas Tech (2-0)
   Vegas Line/Spread: Texas by 3
   So far Texas hasn't looked like the top 5 teams that the coaches think they are, and the Red Raiders are unranked in all polls except ours. Last season Texas hardly dominated, winning 34-24 at home, even with Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley. Now the game moves to Lubbock; Texas Tech has both of their quarterbacks back and has had no problems on offense scoring 35 on SMU and 52 vs. New Mexico, but they let the Mustangs back in it with late touchdowns. Texas looked sloppy against Rice, winning 34-17, but beat Wyoming 34-7. This game will answer a lot of questions about both teams, particularly with the Longhorn offense and Red Raider defense. Can Texas be a top five team? Is Texas Texas top 25 worthy? This is a certain "upset", because if Texas loses it's a huge upset in the AP, and if Texas wins it's a minor upset according to our rankings.
   Prediction: Texas Tech 34, Texas 28
    
   
2. Intra-Conference Battle of the Week: #19 Clemson (2-0) at #14 Auburn (2-0)
   Vegas Line/Spread: Auburn by 7 1/2
   The ACC took some punches to the gut last week, and only Clemson with their cupcake schedule so far has emerges unblemished. They face a live foe for the first time in their first road game, and I don't think North Texas and Presbyterian have prepared the Tigers for the Auburn Tigers. But how good is Auburn? They let Arkansas State score 26 points, and barely edged Mississippi State 17-14 a week ago. This is another game where we'll see some questions answered. But between Cameron Newton and the other factors working against Clemson, Auburn should prevail. The Vegas spread looks about right to me and could go either way.
   Prediction: Auburn 31, Clemson 23
    
   
3. Most Interesting Pairing: #21 Air Force (2-0) at #4 Oklahoma (2-0)
   Vegas Line/Spread: Oklahoma by 16 1/2
   Air Force has been a force so far, scoring 65 on hapless I-AA foe Northwestern State, then stifling BYU 35-14. Now we'll see how well they can do against a certain top 25 team at Oklahoma. Have the Sooners really got it going now that they blasted FSU, or will their overconfidence return because of it? I expect it will be the former, and the Falcons have the further disadvantage of facing their first really strong defense. Oklahoma's trouble with Utah State was in the secondary, and they won't be tested much against the Falcon's run-option.
   Prediction: Oklahoma 35, Air Force 13
    
   
4. Inter-Conference Game of the Week: #6 Arkansas (2-0) at Georgia (1-1)
   Vegas Line/Spread: Georgia by 2
   Here is where we find out whether we were right at all about Arkansas, our pre-season #3 team. Ryan Mallet and the Razorbacks were supposed to be an offensive machine, which they were last year against the Bulldogs. If they can't do it again then their chances for a dream season are seriously in doubt. They also have to prove they can win on the road. For the Bulldogs it's basically their last stand toward remaining relevant in the SEC race, already having suffered a loss to South Carolina last week.
   Prediction: Arkansas 27, Georgia 23
    
   
5. 1990's Rematch of the Week: #8 Nebraska (2-0) at Washington (1-1)
   Vegas Line/Spread: Nebraska by 3
   These teams split four games in the 1990s and meet for the first time in over a decade. Washington's shot at a super season was hurt by their opening loss to BYU and they didn't look like a world-beater in beating Syracuse, either. Facing Nebraska they have a chance to regain all that lost momentum, but even staying close to the Cornhuskers would suggest they have a shot of a high finish in the the Pac 10. Getting blown out puts an end to the debate. For Nebraska it's a lose-lose situation: even if they crush the Huskies they don't gain much respect. Nebraska's defense could show that it's still among (or is) the best by shutting down Jake Locker, who needs a strong performance (and probably a win) to keep any Heisman hopes alive. But it might be star freshman Taylor Martinez who makes the most waves.
   Prediction: Nebraska 21, Washington 17
    
   
6. Must-Win-Big Game #1: #1 Boise State (1-0) at Wyoming (1-1)
   Vegas Line/Spread: Boise State by 23 1/2
   Boise State took a hit last week while idle when Virginia Tech fell. Now they go back on the field to do what they had to do in the first place: win and win big. They need to impress every single week so that the pollsters think, each time out, "wow, they are really dominating." The name Wyoming doesn't impress many as an opponent but the Cowboys were a bowl winner last year putting them easily in the top half of teams in the Broncos' schedule. Three margin numbers Boise must top: 1) the 23 1/2 point spread, 2) the 27 points that Texas beat Wyoming by last week, and 3) however many points that TCU beats Wyoming by when the two meet on October 9th.
   Prediction: Boise State 45, Wyoming 10
    
   
7. Must-Win-Big Game #2: Baylor (2-0) at #2 TCU (2-0)
   Vegas Line/Spread: TCU by 21
   Like Boise State, TCU has few opportunities to impress. Baylor is at least a BCS-conference opponent and could possibly have a good year in the Big 12, so a strong win over the Bears might grow in stature as the season progresses. The Horned Frog defense will be tester by Robert Griffin, who could have been last year's Denard Robinson (or perhaps, Dwight Dasher) before his ACL injury took him out. He's been on fire this year and will make the game interesting even if the final score isn't.
   Prediction: TCU 42, Baylor 17
    
   
8. Consolation Game of the Week: BYU (1-1) at #22 Florida State (1-1)
   Vegas Line/Spread: FSU by 10
   Both of these teams had great first games—FSU dominating 59-6 and BYU topping Washington—but were brought back to earth quickly in their second outings. The teams that beat them—Oklahoma and Air Force—play each other this week, so this is akin to the old 3rd place game in the Final Four. Last year's matchup didn't go well for the Cougars at all and now the venue changes to Tallahassee, so I don't see a favorable outcome for BYU.
   Prediction: Florida State 35, BYU 21
    
   
9. Redemption Game of the Week: Georgia Tech (1-1) at #23 North Carolina (0-1)
   Vegas Line/Spread: UNC by 3
   Things sure looked bleak for North Carolina a week ago, with the ACC loaded with contenders and the Tar Heels looking at the possibility of losing a dozen or so players. Without them they still battled LSU before losing 30-24, but the conference season slog would certainly wear down a depleted roster. After last week, though, the ACC schedule looks a lot more manageable, and possibly winnable. No team (other than Virginia Tech) took a bigger hit that Georgia Tech. They fell to questionably-talented Kansas, who may have been prepping for the Yellow Jackets instead of North Dakota. In any case, North Carolina has had more than two week to get ready for Tech's option attack and, depleted defense or not, should have an answer for it.
   Prediction: North Carolina 28, Georgia Tech 21
    
   
10. History Repeating Itself: #24 California (2-0) at Nevada (2-0)
    Vegas Line/Spread: Cal by 3
    A year ago California was on top of the world, having defeated two opponents by a combined 111-20 including BCS-conference team Maryland. This year it was 104-10 and the BCS foe was Colorado. Last season played out like this: the Bears struggled with Minnesota, winning 35-21 in their first road game, then were blown out against their first Pac-10 foe, Oregon. This year they face Nevada in their first road test and follow that with Arizona. The difference is that this year Cal is not ranked in the top ten so expectations are lower, and they're expected to have problems with Nevada, the nation's best rushing team who has racked up 100 points of their own in their first two outings. Lucky for Cal that their defensive strength is against the run. Nevada's Colin Kaepernick is an efficient passer, however so the Bears won't find it easy.
    Prediction: California 39, Nevada 35
     
    
11. Who Deserves to Be Ranked?: #25 Iowa (2-0) at Arizona (2-0)
    Vegas Line/Spread: Arizona by 1
    Iowa makes the top ten in the polls, mostly because they had a great year last year and return lots of last year's talent. But will they return last year's luck? So far they haven't needed it and haven't resembled last season's win-by-luck team, dominating by an average score of 36-7. They beat Arizona last year at home before the Wildcats realized they were using the wrong quarterback, and this year the venue shifts to Tucson. This is an interesting game that will tell us a lot about both teams; our pre-season projection was for a 1-point Iowa win, and two weeks in our computers have shifted to a 1-point Arizona win; meanwhile the spread has done the same thing, flipping from the Hawkeyes to the Wildcats. Iowa will face Nick Foles as a starter for the first time, and he's been great so far this season. But passing defense is Iowa's strength, and Arizona has bigger questions on defense—a defense that hasn't been tested by Toledo and The Citadel. I think Arizona's attempt at revenge will fall just short.
    Prediction: Iowa 24, Arizona 23
     
    
12. Hurdle of the week: Houston (2-0) at UCLA (0-2)
    Vegas Line/Spread: Houston by 4
    Houston isn't ranked—by us, though they're #24 in the AP poll now—but they've got a great chance at a great season. To do so they need to win three key close games which separate an 8-4 season from an 11-1 season. UCLA is one of those games. Case Keenum's concussion injury might keep him out of the game which would be favorable to UCLA obviously. But backup Cotton Turner was great last year in mop-up and last week against UTEP he was 9 of 10. UCLA on the other hand was shut out by Stanford. The Cougar defense won't do that to the Bruins but with Turner and a running game that's looking strong they should clear this hurdle, if just barely.
    Prediction: Houston 23, UCLA 21

 

Heisman Trophy 2010 - week 2: "Shoelace" Robinson a clear #1

We were wowed by Denard Robinson last week—both because he nearly rushed for 200 yards and for his 19 of 22 accuracy as a passer—but this week he simply blew everyone away by rushing for a staggering 258 yards against Notre Dame. He also passed for 244 yards and led Michigan to a 28-24 win. He's made himself the clear #1 at this early point in the season.

Robinson's biggest challenge in actually winning the Heisman will be overcoming the team's dependency on him. If he can't get the job done in a given week—and we still don't know how good Michigan as a team really is—then he will suffer. That's the lot of the quarterback; he takes the blame for losses. While Robinson is mostly impressing with his feet rather than his throws and thus may seem more like a running back, the quarterback is always the team leader. Tim Tebow won the Heisman as a running quarterback on a team with a 9-3 record, so Robinson has some slack but it's not infinite.

This week's list (click here for the most recent update):

• Denard Robinson, QB, Michigan [added week one]
  43-62 (69.4%) 430 yd 2 TD 0 int; 57 rsh 455 yd (8.0 ave) 0 fmb 
• Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama [added pre-season]
  (injured, has not played yet)
• Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State [added week two]
  23-38 (60.5%) 215 yd 3 TD 0 int;  2 rsh -19 yd (-9.5ave) 1 fmb
  

Mark Ingram is still on the list despite not playing. Clearly his chances have plummeted even if he comes back strong in week three, as he's lost at least 15% of his opportunity for racking up stats. I've added Kellen Moore of Boise State even though he was idle this week, since no one other than Robinson had a breakout performance and Moore was a solid second choice last week. A lot of luster is off his performance since Virginia Tech lost to James Madison, but Moore will have incredible numbers by the end of the year and can't be overlooked.

Only a handful of players have put together two strong performances, among them Kendall Hunter of Oklahoma State, but the competition played was weak. Terrelle Pryor did well but wasn't spectacular against Miami, and Oklahoma's Landry Jones wasn't good in week one. Case Keenum of Houston played well but had no passing TDs before being knocked out of the game against UTEP. The list goes on. It's wide open as to whom the Heisman finalists would be if the vote was held today, but the winner would be Robinson. But September's shoo-ins sometimes don't even make it to New York.

FCS (Division I-AA) Top 25 for week 2

Since the FCS has decided to make things interesting by beating a total of six FBS teams so far this year, we're producing an FCS Top 25 for the first time. The interesting questions are: how will those six teams do this year? Does beating an FCS team insure a strong season?

Here are the first three rankings of the year, starting with the pre-season poll which is nothing more than a listing of the top 25 FCS teams from the Strength Power Rating of 2009.

2010 SportsRatings FCS pre-season rankings

1.  Villanova                  
2.  William & Mary             
3.  Northern Iowa              
4.  Richmond                   
5.  Southern Illinois          
6.  Elon                       
7.  Montana                    
8.  Jacksonville St            
9.  South Dakota St            
10. Appalachian St            
11. New Hampshire             
12. James Madison             
13. Delaware                  
14. Weber St                  
15. Liberty                   
16. Massachusetts             
17. Eastern Washington        
18. Pennsylvania              
19. Northern Arizona          
20. South Carolina St         
21. Maine                     
22. Furman                    
23. Stephen F. Austin         
24. Youngstown St             
25. Southern Utah             

Most of the teams in the pre-season ranking match up with those in the FCS pre-season coaches' poll. There are a few surprises and some obvious places where one can tell that due dilligence hasn't been done (Northern Iowa lost most of its offense this year and should be downgraded from #3), but that shouldn't matter over the long haul. This is just used as a starting point.

2010 SportsRatings FCS rankings after Week One

lw  rnk Team                rec  important games
8   1.  Jacksonville St     1-0 w@Miss 49-48       
1   2.  Villanova           0-1 L@Temple 31-24       
3   3.  Northern Iowa       0-0       
5   4.  Southern Illinois   1-0       
4   5.  Richmond            0-1 L@Virginia 34-13       
7   6.  Montana             1-0        
6   7.  Elon                0-1 L@Duke 41-27       
16  8.  Massachusetts       1-0 wWMary 27-23    
9   9.  South Dakota St     0-0       
10  10. Appalachian St      1-0      
11  11. New Hampshire       1-0      
12  12. James Madison       1-0      
13  13. Delaware            1-0       
15  14. Liberty             1-0       
14  15. Weber St            0-1 L@BC 38-20      
2   16. William & Mary      0-1 L@UMass 27-23       
19  17. Northern Arizona    1-0       
18  18. Pennsylvania        0-0       
17  19. Eastern Washington  0-1 L@Nevada 49-24      
--  20. North Dakota St     1-0 w@Kansas 6-3
20  21. South Carolina St   0-1 L@GTech 41-10      
22  22. Furman              0-0    
--  23. Albany              1-0 w@Maine 3-0
23  24. Stephen F. Austin   0-1 L@TexAM 48-7      
24  25. Youngstown St       0-1 L@PennSt 44-14     
        out:
25  --  Southern Utah       0-1 L@Wyoming 28-20      
21  --  Maine               0-1 L Albany 3-0      

Villanova nearly beat Temple but fell, while at the same time Jacksonville State famously upset Mississippi. That's enough for us to crown a new #1 early in the season. The other upset winner, North Dakota State, didn't register in the opening poll and Kansas ranked a lot lower pre-season than Ole Miss, but the Bison rumble in at #20. In general teams that lose to an FBS squad fall a notch.

The big intra-top-25 matchup saw Massachusetts beat former #2 William & Mary, vaulting the Minutemen into the top ten and dropping the Tribe to #16.

2010 SportsRatings FCS rankings after Week Two

lw  rnk Team                rec  important games
12  1.  James Madison       2-0 w@VirginiaTech 21-16     
1   2.  Jacksonville St     2-0 w@Miss 49-48       
2   3.  Villanova           1-1 L@Temple 31-24       
3   4.  Northern Iowa       1-0 wNDakotaSt 16-9      
5   5.  Richmond            0-1 L@Virginia 34-13       
4   6.  Southern Illinois   1-1 L@Illinois 35-3      
7   7.  Elon                1-1 L@Duke 41-27       
8   8.  Massachusetts       2-0 wWMary 27-23    
13  9.  Delaware            2-0 wSDakotaSt 26-3      
10  10. Appalachian St      2-0      
14  11. Liberty             2-0 w@BallState 27-23      
11  12. New Hampshire       1-1 L@Pitt 38-16     
--  13. Cal Poly            2-0 wMontana 35-33
9   14. South Dakota St     0-1 L@Delaware 26-3      
16  15. William & Mary      1-1 L@UMass 27-23       
15  16. Weber St            1-1 L@BC 38-20      
17  17. Northern Arizona    1-1 L@ASU 41-20      
18  18. Pennsylvania        0-0       
6   19. Montana             1-1 L@Cal-Poly 35-33        
19  20. Eastern Washington  1-1 L@Nevada 49-24      
21  21. South Carolina St   1-1 L@GTech 41-10      
22  22. Furman              1-0    
24  23. Stephen F. Austin   1-1 L@TexAM 48-7; wAlbany 59-14      
25  24. Youngstown St       1-1 L@PennSt 44-14     
20  25t North Dakota St     1-1 L@UNI 16-9; w@Kansas 6-3
--  25t South Dakota        1-1 L@UCF 38-7; w@Minnesota 41-38
--  25t Gardner-Webb        2-0 w@Akron 38-37ot
        out:
23  --  Albany              1-1 L@SFAustin 59-14

And after week two, we couldn't ignore James Madison's win over a pre-season top ten Hokie squad. Regardless of the conditions (following a huge Hokie loss, playing again in just 5 days) it's a win on par with Appalachian State's victory over Michigan. I have no problem putting the Dukes #1, making them the third different #1 in three weeks.

#2 Jacksonville State struggled with Tennessee-Chattanooga beating them just 21-17. That's not surprising since it follows their huge win over Mississippi. Also, Chattanooga took #10 Appalachian State to the wire in week one, 42-41, as the Mountaineers rallied from a 35-14 fourth-quarter deficit. The Mocs get the designation as the best 0-2 FCS teams and if they continue to play this well they'll be in the rankings at some point.

In play between FCS top 25 teams, Delaware moves into the top 10 after convincingly beating former #9 South Dakota State 26-3, while Cal Poly tripped up former #6 Montana 35-33 and enters at #13. Stephen F. Austin crushed Albany 59-14, sending the Great Danes out of the rankings. They had defeated Maine last week to enter.

Other than James Madison, three other teams beat FBS opponents. Liberty moves up to #11 for edging lowly FBS team Ball State, while South Dakota and Gardner-Webb both enter due to narrow wins over Minnesota and Akron respectively. They create a three-way tie at #25 between teams who won games with the FBS including North Dakota State who beat Kansas last week but were upended by #3 Northern Iowa last Saturday.

 

2010 Projected Final BCS Standings (post-week 2): Oklahoma new champion

This year we will be projecting the Final (pre-bowl) BCS Standings each week, based on our pre-season standings and using the projected winner from each game. Every week these projections will be updated using the actual results for that week. For the most recent projection click here.

Here is the projection using our pre-season prognostications combined with results through week two:

2010 Projected Final* BCS Rankings (*pre-Bowl) - after week 2
LW	#	Team	record	BCS
2	1.	Oklahoma	13-0	Champ
1	2.	Arkansas	13-0	Champ
3	3.	Wisconsin	12-0	Rose
4	4.	Boise St	12-0	Fiesta
5	5.	TCU	12-0
6	6.	Oregon	12-0	Rose
7	7.	Ohio State	11-1	Fiesta
8	8.	Alabama	11-1	Sugar
10	9.	Texas Tech	11-1
11	10.	Nebraska	12-1	Sugar
9	11.	Virginia Tech	11-2	Orange
12	12.	Miami FL	10-2
13	13.	Florida	11-2
15	14.	Iowa	10-2
14	15.	Houston	12-1
16	16.	Auburn	10-2
19	17.	Stanford	10-2
17	18.	Pittsburgh	10-2	Orange
18	19.	Utah	10-2
21	20.	Penn State	10-3
20	21.	North Carolina	9-3
22	22.	Washington	9-3
25	23.	Texas	9-3
23	24.	LSU	8-4
24	25.	West Virginia	10-2

Using these pre-bowl projections, we get the following probable bowl pairings:

BCS Championship Game: Oklahoma vs. Arkansas
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Nebraska
Orange Bowl: Virgina Tech vs. Pittsburgh
Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State vs. Boise State

This week's notes:

• Oklahoma the new top team, and new projected national title winner

The Sooners were #1 in the pre-season BCS projection, fell to #2 last week, but rise to #1 again this week. What's more, they've now passed Arkansas in the Strength projections too, meaning they're our favorite to win the national title by these forecasts. The 47-17 win over FSU did most of that work, while Arkansas hasn't been quite dominant enough to live up to their very generous #3 pre-season Strength ranking.

• Virginia Tech's loss hurts...TCU?

The conventional wisdom is that Virginia Tech's sorry loss to FCS team James Madison hurts Boise State...and it's true, the odds of Boise State getting to the national championship game have fallen a lot. We don't see it here but they were neck-and-neck with Wisconsin for the #3 spot before last week, now they're a distant #4. They are still ahead of TCU, however, and would likely remain so if both go undefeated.

Virginia Tech's loss drops them only to #11. The ACC is still wide open, and the Hokies have as good of a chance as any team to win the ACC title and gain the conference's automatic berth. They haven't lost in conference play, and if their season follows the pattern set by Michigan of 2007—who lost to Appalchian State and highly-ranked Oregon early on, both at home—they should finish 8-4, with two conference losses, which would put them very close to the title. Time will tell whether psychology killed them against James Madison, or if they're really not very good. The latter is a distinct possibility, though.

How the computer rating systems handle their loss is questionable. It would seem that a loss to a I-AA school would be the worst thing possible, but it might not be, for the following reasons:

• Some of the computer ratings might not even count the game. This is the case for the RPI, used by the committee to seed the NCAA basketball brackets. It counts only games between two Division I teams, not basketball's lower Division II and III (and NAIA).
• Some of the computer algorithms will count the game but won't count any of James Madison's other games. Essentially, Virginia Tech will have lost to an undefeated, 1-0 team.
• Some of them (such as Jeff Sagarin's formula) use all of the I-AA results and therefore will track James Madison this year. But the Dukes might be the best team in the FCS and go undefeated, once again mitigating the loss.

So this brings us to the BCS bowl pairings. Assuming (and the projection still does) that Virginia Tech wins the ACC, we have a "situation" created by James Madison's win and Nebraska's rise into the top ten. When the Sugar Bowl picks its "replacement" for Arkansas, they'll go for Alabama of course and they have the following pick. Until this week, Boise State would be a natural opponent, held in high esteem and on everyone's mind as a possible "best team in the country" if Virginia Tech had just that one loss. But now the Sugar Bowl would almost certainly pick Nebraska as Alabama's opponent, so that the #1 and #2 teams from the SEC and Big Twelve will be squaring off, just like in 1971. (Note that although Texas Tech will be higher in the BCS ratings that's due to the computer polls who will give them a lot of credit for beating Houston; Nebraska will be thought of as the #2 Big Twelve team however).

Then, the Orange Bowl picks Virginia Tech's foe. It can't be Boise State, obviously. But if they take TCU, then Boise State is shut out of the BCS—as punishment for beating Virginia Tech. This won't happen; the Orange Bowl will take the closer geographic choice with Pittsburgh, leaving the last pick to the Fiesta Bowl. They'll gladly take an undefeated Boise State to compare with once-beaten Ohio State. This means TCU is S.O.L.

TCU's only hope is to pass Boise State. Assuming both go undefeated, that will be hard but not impossible. The best way would be for Oregon State to really give the Broncos a tough game, worse than they gave the Horned Frogs. They both play Wyoming, too, another head-to-head comparison the human voters could use.

• No other big surprises

Other than Virginia Tech's loss none of the teams in the last top 25 projection suffered upsets; Miami and Penn State's losses were already figured in. A few teams moved up a spot or two, or down the same.

==================================================================

BCS Selection Rules for 2010-11
(simplified; full detail here):

• #1 and #2 teams go into BCS Championship game;

then, if still available:

• Rose Bowl gets Big 10, Pac 10 champs
• Sugar Bowl gets SEC champ
• Orange Bowl gets ACC champ
• Fiesta Bowl gets Big 12 champ

After automatic qualifiers have been placed, selections will be made in the following order:

• BCS #1 team is replaced
• BCS #2 team is replaced
• Sugar Bowl picks its 2nd team
• Orange Bowl picks its 2nd team
• Fiesta Bowl picks its 2nd team

All of the BCS conference champs must be selected, along with Notre Dame if in the top 8, any one other non-BCS-conference champ if in the top 12, and if still available the #3 and (in many cases) #4 teams in the BCS rankings.

Four FCS wins over FBS in week two: James Madison, South Dakota, Gardner-Webb, and Liberty

For the record there were not two, not three, but four wins by the FCS (I-AA) over FBS (I-A) teams this weekend, bringing the total for the year to six.

In addition to James Madison's shocking 21-16 win at Virginia Tech, South Dakota beat Minnesota 41-38, Gardner-Webb beat Akron 38-37 in overtime, and Liberty beat Ball State 27-23.

Last weekend we saw Jacksonville State beating Mississippi 49-48 in double overtime, while North Dakota State beat Kansas 6-3.

All of these wins came on the home field of the FBS team, too, making them all the more amazing. FBS teams rarely if ever will play at the FCS team's smaller stadium. The James Madison win was the first time a ranked FBS team has fallen to an FCS team since Michigan lost to Appalachian State three years ago, and only the second time ever.

Minnesota has had a lot of trouble with their neighboring states' FCS teams. In 2007 they lost to North Dakota State 27-21 after beating them only 10-9 the year before. Last season they beat South Dakota State just 16-13, and lost to South Dakota on Saturday. North Dakota State beat Kansas last week, which is all the more impressive after the Jayhawks upset Georgia Tech this weekend. The other Dakota team, North Dakota, is 0-2 this year.

The other teams to win this weekend, Liberty and Gardner-Webb, are both from the Big South conference and both had winning records last year. Liberty is ranked in the FCS poll and the game with Ball State was expected to be a tossup (we gave them a 47% chance of winning it, pre-season). The Akron loss is much more of a surprise.

Jacksonville State played two FCS teams last season and did well in both, falling at Florida State just 19-9 and at Georgia Tech 37-17. Their win over Mississippi was certainly the most exciting of all six upsets, but all of the games were very close. Someday, perhaps, an FCS team will dominate an FBS team but that wasn't the case in any of these wins.

Here's a listing of all the upsets so far:

Saturday, September 4, 2010

Jacksonville State  49  2OT
Mississippi         48

North Dakota State   6
Kansas               3

Saturday, September 11, 2010

James Madison       21
Virginia Tech       16

South Dakota        41
Minnesota           38

Gardner-Webb        38  OT
Akron               37

Liberty             27
Ball State          23

 

SportsRatings Top 25 week two: ACC suffers fallout

Welcome to the SportsRatings College Football Top 25 for the week ending September 11, 2010. This is a subjective ranking, not a computer power rating. It does attempt to use several rules some of which include honoring head-to-head results whenever possible, and giving more consideration to teams with wins over other top 25 teams.

Week two saw a total of four FCS (I-AA) teams beat their FBS (I-A) brethren: In addition to James Madison's shocking 21-16 win at former #11 Virginia Tech, South Dakota beat Minnesota 41-38, Gardner-Webb beat Akron 38-37 in overtime, and Liberty beat Ball State 27-23. The first results knocked Virginia Tech (now 0-2) out of the rankings and spoils #1 Boise State's marquee win. The Broncos didn't play this week and remain number one for now, but as the season progresses it will be hard to justify keeping them there as other teams gain important wins. #2 TCU is in the much the same boat, depending on how the Mountain West teams do this year. Both have to win very convincingly, with little or no room for an "off" game.

The rest of the top ten made good cases for belonging there, starting with #3 Oregon and #4 Oklahoma who both jump a few spots after convincing wins over Tennessee (48-13) and Florida State (47-17). They even nudge Alabama down a spot despite the Tide beating Penn State 24-3, a game that could have been a lot closer without several Nittany Lion mistakes. Regardless, Alabama deserves a top five ranking unlike Arkansas who hasn't looked quite as good. They beat Louisiana-Monroe 31-7 but led just 7-0 at halftime and 14-0 starting the 4th quarter, and they fall from #3 to #6. They get tested at Georgia next week then host Alabama so they'll have a chance to prove themselves. Ohio State holds at #7 after beating Miami as expected .

SportsRatings Top 25 - week two 2010 (thru 9/11/2010)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/important wins
1	1	Boise St	1-0	w@VirginiaTech33-30
2	2	TCU	2-0
5	3	Oregon	2-0
6	4	Oklahoma	2-0	wFSU47-17
4	5	Alabama	2-0
3	6	Arkansas	2-0
7	7	Ohio State	2-0	wMiami36-24
9	8	Nebraska	2-0
8	9	Florida	2-0
18	10	Stanford	2-0
13	11	Texas Tech	2-0
12	12	Wisconsin	2-0
16	13	Texas	2-0
14	14	Auburn	2-0
22	15	Texas A&M	2-0
19	16	South Carolina	2-0
20	17	LSU	2-0	w=UNC30-24
10	18	Miami FL	1-1	L@OSU36-24
21	19	Clemson	2-0
24	20	Utah	2-0
--	21	Air Force	2-0	wBYU35-14
17	22	Florida St	1-1	L@OK47-17
25	23	North Carolina	0-1	L=LSU30-24
--	24	California	2-0
--	25	Iowa	2-0
		out:
23	--	BYU	1-1	L@AirForce35-14
15	--	Georgia Tech	1-1	L@Kansas28-25
11	--	Virginia Tech	0-2	L Boise33-30,JMadison21-16

Nebraska and Florida swap places at #8 and #9. I let the rankings be very fluid early on and Nebraska's first two results are more impressive, though Florida put away South Florida handily, 38-14. Stanford rounds out the top ten with a big jump from #18 as they blanked UCLA 35-0 on the road Saturday night.

Texas Tech, Wisconsin, and Texas all took care of business to varying degrees this weekend and rank #11 to #13. They, as well as #14 Auburn who just slipped past Mississippi State 17-14, will have to distinguish themselves with important wins to reach the top ten.

Texas A&M jumps from #22 due to blasting Louisiana Tech 48-16 and to several teams above them falling. All of the falling teams are from the ACC: Virginia Tech falls out along with Georgia Tech, a 28-25 upset victim to Kansas (who themselves were upset by I-AA North Dakota State last weekend). Miami drops eight spots and Florida State falls from 17 to 22. All of this helps South Carolina and LSU climb three notches each. Clemson, the only ranked ACC member to win this weekend (defeating Presbyterian 58-21) inches up to #19.

Air Force suprised BYU with a convincing Mountain West conference win, 35-14, and replaces the Cougars in the rankings at #21. With the pair of ACC teams falling out due to big upsets, two slots open up and I've replaced them based on both pre-season rankings and early results. #24 California started only at #37 but has defeated two opponents by a combined 104-10, including Saturday's 52-7 destruction of Colorado. This is similar to how they started last season, so if they look mediocre at Nevada expect them to get whacked hard by Arizona the next week. At #25 is Iowa, who began at #27 and has won 37-7 and 35-7.

 Next weekend #4 Oklahoma visits #21 Air Force, while #14 Auburn hosts #19 Clemson. But the game of the week might be in the Big Twelve as #13 Texas travels to #11 Texas Tech. Most of the polls have Texas in the top five with Texas Tech not in sight but don't be shocked if the Raiders win or at least give the Longhorns a lot of trouble.

Week 2 highlights: FCS wins 2 more; Oklahoma rolls; ACC stumbles; Denard Robinson rips Notre Dame

Week two has lived up to its hype so far. Here are the early-evening highlights:

FCS (Division I-AA) claims two more victims

Last week it was Jacksonville State beating Mississippi 49-48, and North Dakota State defeating Kansas 6-3. This week South Dakota defeated Minnesota 41-38 and—in the biggest upset of the year so far—James Madison beat #11 Virginia Tech 21-16.

The latter defeat is a big setback for Boise State, whose goodwill for the win over the Hokies is depleted just one week later. The Hokies fall to 0-2 while the Dukes are sure to soar in the FCS poll (they're currently 11th).

Interestingly, Kansas came back this weekend and upset #15 Georgia Tech, 28-25.

Oklahoma rebounds in a big way

The Sooners were another Big Twelve team that bounced back from a poor performance. Last week they struggled past Utah State, but today Florida State gave them little trouble. After FSU tied it at 7-7, Oklahoma scored 36 straight points on the way to a 47-17 win.

ACC has a terrible weekend

Let us count the ways:

• Virginia Tech lost to a I-AA team
• Georgia Tech fell to Kansas, who lost to a I-AA team
• Florida State was demolished by Oklahoma
• Miami lost to Ohio State 36-24

Virginia plays USC tonight and is the only hope left to redeem the conference.

Denard Robinson runs wild over the Irish

Didn't we say Denard Robinson was a top Heisman candidate? Yes we did, just a few days ago. But we didn't know the half of it.

In a 28-24 win over Notre Dame, Robinson:

• led the winning drive
• completed 24 of 40 passes for 244 yards, 1 TD, no interceptions
• ran for 258 yards(!) on 28 carries (9.1 average) and 2 touchdowns.

Wow. We can confidently say he's going to be a firm #1 on our next list.

Week 2 Preview, Odds, and Predictions: Miami-Ohio State not the only National Championship rematch

The big game this weekend is #7 Ohio State vs. #10 Miami, a rematch of the classic and controversion Buckeye double overtime win from the 2002 season. But there are other national championship rematches this week that aren't getting as much attention.

• Game of the Week: #10 Miami (1-0) at #7 Ohio State (1-0)
  Line/Vegas Spread: Ohio State by 8 1/2
  Two strong teams, two talented quarterbacks, BCS and national title hopes on the line. Miami blanked hapless FAMU last week while Ohio State drubbed Marshall 45-7. The Hurricanes are going to find it a lot harder to handle the Buckeyes than their last opponent, much like what happened last year after they opened big against Charleston Southern and graduated to Florida. Ohio State is at home and therefore a big favorite, and they'll probably win. They won't need double overtime but I'm predicting the same score as last time around.
  Prediction: Ohio State 31, Miami 24
  
  
• National Championship Redux #2: #18 Florida State (1-0) at #6 Oklahoma (1-0)
  Line/Vegas Spread: Oklahoma by 7
  In 2000 (early 2001 actually) the Florida State Seminoles played the Oklahoma Sooners for the national championship, resulting in a 13-2 Oklahoma win that, in contrast to the Miami-Ohio State game two years later, is seen as one of the more boring big-game contests in history. Oklahoma essentially shut out the Seminoles and hardly took it to them offensively, but a defensive win is still a win. Fast-forward to the present: FSU looked fantastic in whacking Samford 59-6, but that was Samford. Oklahoma got a ridiculous scare at home, beating Utah State just 31-24. This contest will tell us whether we've got the Sooners way overrated. Until then, one bad game can be excused.
  Prediction: Oklahoma 33, Florida State 20
  
  
• The REAL Classic Matchup of the Week: Penn State (1-0) at #4 Alabama (1-0)
  Line/Vegas Spread: Alabama by 12
  While the two games above are national championship rematches, this one is not only that but is a classic confrontation as well. The teams faced each other almost every year during the 80s and before that played for the 1978 national championship. Penn State went into that game undefeated and Alabama came out a 14-7 winner. This time around the Nittany Lions aren't ranked (by us, though they are in the AP and coaches polls); they were 29th in our pre-season rankings and are projected to finish #21 in the BCS Standings, so they are a major player and control their own destiny between this game and the others on their Big Ten slate. Alabama at home is probably too tough a task for the Lions, who aren't quite as good with a freshman at quarterback instead of Darryll Clark.
  Prediction: Alabama 34, Penn State 17
  
  
• The National Championship Matchup that Never Happened: Michigan (1-0) at Notre Dame (1-0)
  Line/Vegas Spread: Notre Dame by 3 1/2
  Surprisingly, Notre Dame and Michigan, two of the winningest programs in college football history, have never faced each other for the national championship. They should have in 1947 and 1948, when they finished #1 and #2 in the AP poll (Notre Dame on top the first year, Michigan the 2nd), and have played umpteen times since then. Michigan leads the series 21-15-1. This one's hard to call as both teams are trying to bounce back from several poor years. I figure the Irish are a step or two ahead in their rehab with new coach Brian Kelly despite losing Jimmy Classen and Golden Tate, and the oddsmakers give it to Notre Dame basically based on home field edge. But the Wolverines were certainly more impressive in beating UConn in week 1 than the Irish were in edging Purdue and if that holds then Michigan and newly-minted Heisman hopeful Denard Robinson will come out on top.
  Prediction: Michigan 28, Notre Dame 27
  
  
• Conference Matchup of the Week: #23 BYU (1-0) at Air Force (1-0)
  Line/Vegas Spread: Air Force by 1
  Some teams play important conference games early, such as Temple and Central Michigan in the MAC last night (Temple won 13-10 in overtime, giving them a boost toward an expected division title). Now #23 BYU heads into Air Force for a battle of upper-half Mountain West teams. We had BYU rated a 1 point favorite in this game before the year started and their upset of Washington only adds to our confidence. Air Force always seems to be better than expected, though, and remember how up-and-down BYU was last season after they upset Oklahoma.
  Prediction: BYU 27, Air Force 24
  
  

 

2010 Projected Final BCS Standings (post-week 1): TCU gains some hope

This year we will be projecting the Final (pre-bowl) BCS Standings each week, based on our pre-season standings and using the projected winner from each game. Every week these projections will be updated using the actual results for that week. For the most recent projection click here.

Here is the projection using our pre-season prognostications combined with week one's results:

2010 Projected Final* BCS Rankings (*pre-Bowl) - after week 1
LW	#	Team	record	BCS
2	1.	Arkansas	13-0	Champ
1	2.	Oklahoma	13-0	Champ
4	3.	Wisconsin	12-0	Rose
3	4.	Boise St	12-0	Sugar
9	5.	TCU	12-0	Orange?
5	6.	Oregon	12-0	Rose
7	7.	Ohio St	11-1	Fiesta
8	8.	Alabama	11-1	Sugar
6	9.	Virginia Tech	12-1	Orange
10	10.	Texas Tech	11-1
12	11.	Nebraska	12-1	Orange?
11	12.	Miami FL	10-2
15	13.	Florida	11-2
14	14.	Houston	12-1
19	15.	Iowa	10-2
17	16.	Auburn	10-2
13	17.	Pittsburgh	10-2	Fiesta
--	18.	Utah	10-2
20	19.	Stanford	10-2
16	20.	North Carolina	9-3
23	21.	Penn St	10-3
18	22.	Washington	9-3
--	23.	LSU	8-4
21	24.	West Virginia	10-2
22	25.	Texas	9-3

(#24 Florida State and #25 Georgia Tech fell out)

Using these pre-bowl projections, we get the following probable bowl pairings:

BCS Championship Game: Arkansas vs. Oklahoma
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl: Boise State vs. Alabama
Orange Bowl: Virgina Tech vs. TCU
Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State vs. Pittsburgh

This week's notes:

TCU is the big winner this week, moving from #9 to #5. But why? They only beat Oregon State by 9, when to be as good as we've projected they should have won by at least three touchdowns. Their main problem, though, is very weak strength of schedule. When Utah beat Pitt, and BYU beat Washington, suddenly those Mountain West teams look a lot better and TCU has two more quality foes on their schedule. One of them, Utah, moves into the projected top 25 at #18. So while the Horned Frogs didn't look like the dominant #1 team they'd have to be to win over the human voters, the computers will hold them in higher esteem due to their conference-mates big wins.

It's not enough to put them among the very top or even guarantee a BCS bowl. Boise State still looks like the non-BCS conference automatic qualifier of choice, and a 1-loss Nebraska could get the nod ahead of them. Oregon State could really help out TCU by beating Boise State and Oregon.

Other items of interest:

• Though Boise State got their big win over Virginia Tech, that was already factored into the projections (it had Boise State by 1 or 2; the Broncos won by three). Boise State actually drops a spot to #4, as Wisconsin's strength of schedule went up (mostly due to Michigan upsetting UConn).
• Oregon blew out New Mexico 72-0. Our model had them winning 52-0, so they exceeded that a bit but in the scheme of the entire season that doesn't matter a lot. Washington's loss is what dinged them down to #6. Their strength of schedule is still higher than TCU's so if they outperform them they'll move back ahead if both are undefeated.
• Virginia Tech fell but again, not because they lost to Boise State which was expected. The ACC teams all fell due to North Carolina's loss to LSU. North Carolina's projection was based on a team that had far fewer personnel losses on defense than the one that played in Atlanta. If those players come back UNC should finish where they are on the chart now (#20) but if they don't, their projection will continue to drop. Miami, FSU, and Georgia Tech all dropped in the projection. Despite a poor performance against Miami of Ohio, Florida rose a few spots—thanks to LSU, who enters at #23.
• Michigan's win helped Iowa and Penn State as well as Wisconsin, and hurt UConn's Big East teammates West Virginia and Pittsburgh. But Pitt's main problem was losing to Utah, an upset loss which drops them from #13 to #17 and makes them the last team taken, in the Fiesta instead of the Orange. The Panthers are still projected to win the Big East so they are a lock under those circumstances for a BCS bowl, but with their lowered value the Orange will take either TCU or Nebraska ahead of them.
• Oklahoma and Arkansas are still slated for the national championship game but their order has changed due to Oklahoma's very shaky performance against Utah State. One game doesn't affect much in the scheme of the season but it was enough to forecast that the human voters (who see the score unlike the computers) will remember the narrow win; it also harms Oklahoma's Strength rating which leads the projection to believe that future games could be closer than expected. Even last week Arkansas was projected to win the game and that hasn't changed.

==================================================================

BCS Selections Rules for 2010-11
(simplified; full detail here):

• #1 and #2 teams go into BCS Championship game;

then, if still available:

• Rose Bowl gets Big 10, Pac 10 champs
• Sugar Bowl gets SEC champ
• Orange Bowl gets ACC champ
• Fiesta Bowl gets Big 12 champ

After automatic qualifiers have been placed, selections will be made in the following order:

• BCS #1 team is replaced
• BCS #2 team is replaced
• Sugar Bowl picks its 2nd team
• Orange Bowl picks its 2nd team
• Fiesta Bowl picks its 2nd team

All of the BCS conference champs must be selected, along with Notre Dame if in the top 8, any one other non-BCS-conference champ if in the top 12, and if still available the #3 and (in most cases) #4 teams in the BCS rankings.

Heisman Trophy week 1: Denard Robinson makes waves

A lot of the Heisman polls around the web right now have put Boise State's Kellen Moore on top. He was one of my favorites at the beginning of the season and certainly had a great win on Monday night. But I think that by far the best individual performance last week was Denard Robinson's.

It wasn't the Michigan quarterback's 197 yards that did it. Well ok, it was mostly his 197 yards, but if it were just that then Kendall Hunter, DeMarco Murray and others had more impressive weekends. It also wasn't just that he did it against UConn while those who rushed for more did so against weaker competition (save Kansas State's Daniel Thomas, 235 yards against UCLA). Kellen Moore's winning performance was against Virginia Tech, a team likely a lot better than Connecticut.

No, it's because he had a great all-around performance. "Shoelace" was 19 of 22 passing in addition to his rushing totals. He wasn't just a wildcat-formation QB completing fewer than 50% of his passes. He did everything.

So here's our list post-Week One (click here for the most recent update). We started it with one name: Mark Ingram. He's grandfathered in because he was last year's winner and has nothing to prove. Everyone else has to give us a reason to be added to the list, week-by-week, until there are 10 names. Then they get whittled down as the season draws to a close.

• Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama [added: pre-season]
  (injured, has not played yet)
• Denard Robinson, QB, Michigan [added: week one]
  19-22 (86.4%) 186 yds 1 TD 0 int; 29 rsh 197 yds (6.8 ave) 0 fmb

It's true that if Michigan doesn't do well this year then Robinson's chances will sink, so Moore may be a better bet to win when all is said and done. But just looking at performance so far, Robinson has been just as deserving. And it never hurts to have a nickname.

And Ingram hasn't done anything yet and will likely miss next week's big game with Penn State. This definitely hurts his chances but I'm not counting him out yet. Even if he doesn't play the whole year I won't cut him until week 10.

Moore will almost certainly get put on the list in the coming weeks, as will many of week one's top performers if they keep it up. As the weeks go by and the top teams emerge, the best players from those teams will earn consideration, too. So many of the quarterbacks who were pre-season favorites (Moore, Ohio State's Terrelle Pryor, Washington's Jake Locker, Houston's Case Keenum) and those currently topping other Heisman polls (Hunter, Thomas, Arkansas' Ryan Mallet, FSU's Christian Ponder, etc) will be seen here in the weeks to come, one at a time.