Every year in college basketball the Big Ten and ACC conferences hold the Big Ten-ACC Challenge, where each team plays a team from the other conference. While the ACC has won the lion's share of games, there are always good teams and good matchups from both powerhouse basketball leagues, and the pairings give a boost to everyone's pre-season schedule strength and fan interest is created.
Now let's look at college football. Though I've not seen it officially declared, there is a de facto Big Ten-M.A.C. Challenge this weekend (you have to say it like you would say ACC, not as "Mac") as a total of eight Big Ten teams take on Mid-American (MAC) conference foes on Saturday.
The MAC is no ACC, even in football and despite how troubled the ACC is this year. This weekend is either designed to be, or by coincidence just is, a bye week for the Big Ten, a weekend where every team in the conference should pad their record with a win. Two Big Ten teams that don't play MAC squads instead play teams from the FCS (Division I-AA), and one other, Illinois, has an actual bye week. And unlike the Big Ten-ACC clashes, in which home court is fairly distributed between the leagues, this one's a dead giveaway: the MAC team will be the visitor in every single matchup.
Big Ten vs. the MAC on 9/25/2010: The Run-down
Big Ten team | 09 Success | Opponent | Conf | 09 Success | Spread | Forecast |
Ohio State | #5 | Eastern Mich | MAC | #120 | -44 | 54-0 |
Iowa | 8 | Ball State | MAC | 115 | -28 | 38-10 |
Penn State | 11 | Temple | MAC | 50 | -14 | 29-14 |
Northwestern | 28 | Central Mich | MAC | 18 | -7 | 27-25 |
Purdue | 48 | Toledo | MAC | 99 | -12 | 33-16 |
Minnesota | 58 | N. Illinois | MAC | 76 | -4 | 27-21 |
Michigan | 80 | Bowling Green | MAC | 66 | -25 | 40-14 |
Indiana | 94 | Akron | MAC | 105 | -22.5 | 34-17 |
Wisconsin | 17 | Austin Peay | FCS | n/a | n/a | 52-6 |
Michigan St | 61 | N. Colorado | FCS | n/a | n/a | 42-6 |
Illinois | 93 | idle | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
The chart above shows the Big Ten's week four schedule, listing their opponent's conference and both team's Success ratings from last year. The Vegas line (spread) and our rudimentary forecast for the game are included.
As if things needed to be made maximally lopsided, the Big Ten's best team, Ohio State, is paired against last season's worst FBS team, Eastern Michigan. Iowa vs. Ball State is only marginally more competitive. While those are the only games with 100 ranking positions difference, Purdue is over 50 slots better than Toledo.
In two cases the MAC team actually did better than the Big Ten team last year, but those are illusory. Michigan with Denard Robinson is a lot better than last year's team while Bowling Green is 1-2 so far; the Wolverines are a 25 point favorite. And Central Michigan was 12-2 last year but lost star QB Dan LeFevour and is no longer a top 25 team. Still, it could be a close game with Northwestern. Among eight games, the MAC stands a good chance to pick up a win, maybe two, but more than that would be a surprise.
Other good matchups? Penn State vs. Temple might be a much better game than last year's rankings would indicate, but we won't know for sure until they hit the field. Minnesota vs. Northern Illinois should be tight, as the Gophers lost to an FCS team this year. But while Indiana-Akron pairs two equally hapless teams from last year, Indiana is 2-0 and Akron 0-3 so far and the Zips aren't expected to compete.
In the FCS games, Wisconsin against I-AA Austin Peay should be a bit better than Ohio State-Eastern Michigan, and Michigan State vs. Northern Colorado could be closer still—if five touchdowns is "close." With coach Mark Dantonio recovering from a heart attack, the Spartans could be fired up to bury the Bears.
Some will blame "The BCS" for weekends like this, but basically this is what happens when you expand the college football schedule from 11 to 12 games: the pre-season has more fluff. As conference play gets tougher for the bigger and better leagues, the non-conference schedule can't be too difficult or destructive. Athletic directors used to scheduling 11 games know that to have a winning season six wins are necessary, and a cupcake win is as good as a tough opponent. So it's not the BCS: it's the 12-game season and requirement to have a winning season and get to a bowl game, coupled with the allowance of one FCS win, that has diluted schedules recently.
This year has been a lot better than in the past in the first few weeks. But the fourth week is...pretty weak. And the Big Ten is leading the charge in that respect. What if there were a Big Ten-ACC Challenge in football as well as basketball? The Big Ten should push for that as they could expect to do a lot better than they do in basketball, and next season they'll have 12 teams and could match all of them up. It would be great for fans but, alas, it might mean that someone would miss a bowl game. And who would the MAC teams play that weekend?
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