2010 Pre-season Rankings - #3 Arkansas, #4 Alabama

The SportsRatings 2010 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams. These rankings predict how good the teams will be in 2009 before taking schedule into account, then the preview explores how well they should do given their schedule.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team. Two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win (straight up), and also an aggregate projection that allows for the uncertainty across a season (cumulative). The expectation for the team's season lies somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams #3 and #4. To see the full list, click here.

3. Arkansas Razorbacks (SEC #1; West #1)     Polls: AP #17  USA/Coaches #19

2009 Results:   Record: 8-5  Bowl: Beat E. Carolina 20-17ot (Liberty)  Poll finish: AP #38; USA #36
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #12    Success: #34    Overall: #16
The Arkansas Razorbacks? In the SEC Championship game? It's more likely than you think...

Offense (9 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #3   '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #2
Arkansas had one of the top offenses last year and it will only get scarier this season.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #12    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #3
Ryan Mallett led one of the nation's top passing attacks in 2009 and he's getting a lot of hype for 2010. Mallet passed for 3,624 yards and 30 touchdowns last year—only 7 interceptions—and has his top five receivers back to boot. Mallet says he's changed his delivery while recovering from a broken foot last winter and as a result has improved his accuracy, which is good news for receivers Greg Childs (894 yards, 7 TDs), Jarius Wright (681, 5), Joe Adams (568), tight end D.J. Williams (411) and Cobi Hamilton (347). The offensive line should offer better protection with four starters back. All in all it looks like Mallett has a good chance to live up to the hype. He'll have to improve his completion rate (56%) if he wants to be a serious Heisman candidate, but if Arkansas turns out as good as we think then he'll be on everyone's list.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #55     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #45
No back rushed for even 500 yards last season, shocking for a school that had McFadden and Jones just a few years ago. In fact Michael Smith topped 1,000 yards in 2008 but was injured and only had 396, leaving the top spot to fullback-sized Broderick Green (442, 11 TDs). Smith is gone but his departure doesn't downgrade the team much when considering things relative to last year. And the Razorbacks have a number of other options, as Dennis Johnson, Ronnie Wingo, and Knile Davis had 824 yards combined. Johnson and Wingo both averaged over 6 yards per carry compared to Green's 4.2 and one of the two will probably get the starting job. The offensive line should help boost this year's numbers as only Mitch Petrus departs among the starters; seniors Wade Grayson, DeMarcus Love, and Ray Dominguez return with junior Seth Oxner. With the passing game getting the most focus and perhaps several backs sharing the spotlight, Arkansas might not have a 1,000 yard rusher this year, either, but overall production will increase and somebody will have at least 500 yards.

Defense (7 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #42    '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #26
Despite giving up scads of passing yards the Razorback D held scoring within reason and will make significant improvements this season.
• '09 Stats:  Adj. Rush Def: #44   Adj. Pass Def: #110   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #96   Sacks: #38
Arkansas' big problem last year was pass defense, and if it doesn't get any better this year they can forget about competing for the SEC title. On an raw basis they were 99th in passing yards allowed per game, but they faced foes that were below average passing teams, so really they ranked 110th. On a per-play basis they were 96th, but since teams figured out to pass on them, that's what they did and it worked most of the time. One good sign comes on the defensive line where the team's co-leader with 5.5 sacks, Jake Bequette, returns with Zack Stadther. But among the two that depart is the other co-leader, Adrian Davis. The linebackers lose the team's #2 tackler Wendel Davis but #1 Jerry Franklin is back with co-starters Jerico Nelson and Freddy Burton so the three slots are covered well. The secondary loses just one starter while returning Rudell Crim, Elton Ford, and a number of part-time starters including Ramon Broadway, Tramain Thomas, and Andru Stewart. Can that group, with a year's experience, perform significantly better than last year? That is the question for the defense. Arkansas did rank #10 last year in red zone defense which explains why teams weren't able to convert voluminous passing yardages into points at a very high clip. Overall the team returns five of the top seven tacklers and in terms of scoring defense should approach top 25 quality.

Kicking Game: Dylan Breeding averaged just 38.7 yards per punt while Alex Tejada hit 16 of 22 field goals. Both are back but Breeding may lose his job to newcomer Zach Hocker while Tejada will be pushed by freshman Eduardo Camara.
Return Game: Running back Dennis Johnson averaged a swell 25.8 yards per kickoff return, with one touchdown. Last year's punt returner Jerell Norton had an 8.6 yard average and receiver Jarius Wright will inherit the job.
Coaching/Recruiting      '10 Recruiting Rank: #35
Bobby Petrino has refashioned the Hoggs as a passing team after years of being associated with fantastic running backs. This reflects the type of teams he had at Louisville where he was a consistent winner. Arkansas recruits well in general but some years can't keep up with the rest of the SEC. This year's class is a bit of a dip from last season's great class, but almost every player is of high quality despite a general lack of potential superstars. The one consensus blue chip of the bunch, defensive lineman Calvin Barnett, failed to qualify.

2009 Recap  Arkansas was terrible at the beginning of 2008 as the team tried to adjust to Bobby Petrino's system, but by the end of that 5-7 year they were starting to get it. Things clicked a lot more in 2009 with Ryan Mallett at quarterback. Though they lost to George and eventual national champ Alabama, they scored 47 and 44 in beating Texas A&M and Auburn. They challenged top-ranked Florida but fell 23-20, and lost to Ole Miss on the road to stand 3-4 but they'd had a tough schedule. When it got easier—Eastern Michigan, South Carolina, Troy, Mississippi State—they excelled and scored 63, 33, 56, and 42 in four straight wins. They too LSU into overtime but lost, 33-30, then took East Carolina into overtime in the Liberty Bowl and won, 20-17.

Arkansas 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Tennessee Tech	99%	W
9/11	Sat	N	Louisiana-Monroe	99%	W
9/18	Sat	@	*Georgia	65%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	54%	W
10/9	Sat	N	Texas A&M	64%	W
10/16	Sat	@	*Auburn	56%	W
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi	74%	W
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	90%	W
11/6	Sat	@	*South Carolina	60%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	UTEP	99%	W
11/20	Sat	@	*Mississippi State	65%	W
11/27	Sat	vs.	*LSU	66%	W
Projection   Straight up: 12-0   Cumulative: 9-3

2010 Outlook  This year looks very good for the Razorbacks—providing, of course, that they're as good as we're predicting. That's a big "if". But even if they aren't they should win the lion's share of games on their schedule, which is pretty easy in the non-conference side.

Tennessee Tech, Louisiana-Monroe, and later UTEP are all pretty much gimmes, and they play Vanderbilt at home which shouldn't be a challenge. Texas A&M is the only challenge outside the SEC.

The biggest challenge, of course, is Alabama but they face the Tide at home and I believe they will score what most will consider a huge upset. If they get past Auburn on the road two weeks later then they will be on their way to a potential undefeated season.

There are pitfalls at every turn in the SEC and any of Georgia, South Carolina, Mississippi State, or LSU could derail their dream season, and the cumulative projection of 9-3 reflects this. It's also the record the team will probably have if they're only as good as everyone else says (barely top 20) than we are forecasting (top 5).

With so much required of them on offense and defense to be a top five team I can't place good odds on the team going undefeated. I think they will lose one game in the SEC. It won't be Alabama, though; it might be Georgia just before or Auburn after, or any of the tough teams that they must face later. At 11-1 they would be in the SEC title game, likely facing Florida. It might be too much to ask of Arkansas to beat Alabama and Florida in the same season, so the Gators may be the SEC champ. But every year there is a team that does surprisingly well and this year I think that team is Arkansas; if everything falls into place the Razorbacks could make a run at the national title.

 

4. Alabama Crimson Tide (SEC #2; West #2)      Polls: AP #1  USA/Coaches #1

2009 Results:   Record: 14-0   Bowl: Beat Texas 37-21 (BCS Title)   Poll finish: AP #1; USA #1
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #1    Success: #1    Overall: #1
It's hard for a team to lose 9 starters on defense and remain number one, and Alabama is no exception.

Offense (8 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #14   '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #11
With undefeated field general McElroy and two great running backs, Bama's offense will roll.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #59    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #39
No one paid much attention to Greg McElroy as Mark Ingram was, oh, winning the Heisman Trophy last year. But McElroy ran the offense well, completed passes at a decent 61% clip for an adequate 2,500 yards and 17 touchdowns and best of all only threw the ball to the other team 4 times. A senior now, he's shown he can take on increased responsibility for offensive production, and with most of his targets back that is an achievable goal. Julio Jones and Marquis Maze combined for over 1,100 yards and 6 TDs. RB Ingram was 3rd with 334 and they lose #4, tight end Colin Peek (313) but Darius Hanks (272) returns. The offensive line helped a lot with McElroy's poise last year by protecting him well, allowing 20 sacks against some stiff pass rushes (sacks allowed ranked #20 adjusted). They'll do it again this year. McElroy's backup Star Jackson did well in limited action but transferred, leaving a lack of experience if McElroy is hurt, but they've been prepping freshman A.J. McCarron as a backup. Still, he hopefully won't be needed much as McElroy tries to continue his winning streak (hasn't lost yet as a starter, from high school on).
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #12     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #10
Mark Ingram won the Heisman by a hair, with a 1,658-yard, 17-touchdown performance in 2009. In breaking new, Ingram had knee surgery in late August and will miss at least one and possibly 2 or more games which will hurt his chances to repeat. It also gives opportunity to Trent Richardson, Alabama's other great back who rushed for 724 yards as a true freshman. He scored 8 touchdowns and already the pundits are saying Richardson is just as good and maybe better than Ingram! Two reasons this probably isn't true: 1) normally the best player starts, and 2) when the leading rusher has a better ypc average (6.1) than the #2 guy (5.2), it's further confirmation that he's starting for a reason. Not to say that Richardson won't eclipse Ingram at some point in the future (particularly if Ingram's knee has trouble) but it ain't the case right now. The offensive line loses two veterans in Mike Johnson and Drew Davis but three full-time starters are back: senior James Carpenter, junior William Vlachos, and soph Barrett Jones. They'll do a good job again but the real improvement will come from Ingram and Richardson, who will increase the team's rushing totals to make the top ten. Ingram's late summer injury, however, means that he's unlikely to surpass his 2009 numbers while Richardson's chances of a 1,000 yard season are way up.

Defense (2 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #1    '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #3
Alabama will no longer have the best defense in the country, but how far will it fall?
• '09 Stats:  Adj. Rush Def: #1   Adj. Pass Def: #14   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #2   Sacks: #30
Where to start? Ok, the defensive line, which anchored the country's top rushing defense. All three starters are gone from the line: Terrence Cody, Brandon Deaderick, and Lorenzo Washington. Worse, new starter Marcell Dareus (6.5 sacks) is under NCAA investigation and may miss the season. At linebacker we'll graciously call Dont'a Hightower a returning starter, as he did start in 2008 and started four games in 2009 before injury. He's certainly good enough. But top tackler Ronaldo McClain (105 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss), Eryk Anders (6 sacks), and Cory Reamer depart. In the secondary Mark Barron—perhaps the one true returning starter—is back after leading the team with 7 interceptions and adding 11 pass breakups. But they lose Javier Arenas (5 sacks, 5 interceptions), Kareem Jackson (13 pass breakups), Justin Woodall, and nickel back Marquis Johnson (17 pass breakups). With those numbers you can see how 'Bama was #2 in per-attempt passing yards defense. Clearly the team loses a lot of talent, but the players from the 2nd string coming in are all great due to Alabama's superb recruiting, the coaching is terrific, and Barrow, Hightower, and Dareus (if he plays), among others form a solid core than most teams would kill for. Will they be number one again? No. They could fall from the top ten, but we have them still as the 3rd best defense in the country since they were quite dominant last year (note: and perhaps it should be considered #2 above North Carolina considering that their defense might be hobbled badly by NCAA suspensions..).

Kicking Game: Alabama loses kicker Leigh Tiffin who had a great 2009 hitting 30 of 35 field goals. They also lose punter P.J. Fitzgerald who averaged 41.5 yards per kick. Replacing them will be two true freshmen, Cade Foster and Jay Williams. I'm sure they're good but there will likely be a decline in the kicking game.
Return Game: Javier Arenas handled returns for the Tide and did a great job; he returned a punt for a touchdown (15.4 average) and had a 29 yard average on kickoffs. Receiver Julio Jones will take over as the primary for both jobs.
Coaching/Recruiting      '10 Recruiting Rank: #8
Recruiting was a bit down this year; instead of finishing #1 in the country they didn't even get #1 in the SEC (they're in a roughly 3-way tie for 2nd). We're being sarcastic of course as the Tide continue to get some of the best recruits in the nation. This year's best? Most would say d-back DeMarcus Milliner of Millner, Alabama, one of the top-rated recruits in the country, period. He could help out in the secondary immediately.

2009 Recap  Alabama patiently waited for their shot at Florida. Well, ok, they played football all season, too, beating Virginia Tech in the opener 34-24, and running through the SEC with few problems. One of those problems was Tennesse, who probably should have defeated them but didn't, falling 12-10 on a last-play blocked kick. LSU put up a good fight too losing 24-15. Auburn lost just 26-21. But Alabama saved their best effort for the SEC Championship game as the throttled Florida 32-13. The BCS title game was a huge disappointment as it was clearly Colt McCoy's injury and not Alabama's talent that beat Texas, 37-21. Still, only college football fans in 49 other states were disappointed that it wasn't a better game.

Alabama 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	San Jose State	99%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Penn State	65%	W
9/18	Sat	@	Duke	76%	W
9/25	Sat	@	*Arkansas	46%	L
10/2	Sat	vs.	*Florida	56%	W
10/9	Sat	@	*South Carolina	59%	W
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi	73%	W
10/23	Sat	@	*Tennessee	75%	W
11/6	Sat	@	*LSU	59%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi State	70%	W
11/20	Sat	vs.	Georgia State	100%	W
11/26	Fri	vs.	*Auburn	61%	W
Projection   Straight up: 11-1   Cumulative: 8-4

2010 Outlook  Alabama is most people's pre-season number one, and there are good reasons, one being if you haven't lost you don't abdicate the crown. They have the Heisman Trophy winner back and a better offense. But I would think the team should be downgraded a bit for losing so many starters on defense. Without a clear alternative (Ohio State chokes, Boise State can't really be #1, Texas lost McCoy, etc.) Alabama is almost #1 by default.

I don't think they'll remain there all year, not even through the month of September. It won't be San Jose State, obviously, nor Duke, nor even Penn State that trips them; regardless of whether Mark Ingram plays in those games, I think they will all be blowouts. But when they travel to Fayetteville in late September—perhaps looking ahead to hosting Florida the next weekend—they may get their first regular-season loss in more than two years.

I believe they'll beat Florida again and probably clear out the rest of the schedule, too. South Carolina and LSU might put up a fight, Auburn too, much like last year. But they're still the cream of the SEC—except for perhaps Arkansas, who in this scenario will win the SEC West and play in the SEC title game.

One interesting late game is on November 20th against Georgia State. Alabama is the defending I-A national champion. Georgia State is playing their very first year of football in I-AA (FCS). How this game got scheduled I don't know, but it's an absolute joke and the Tide should be ashamed of themselves. Curiously it will be a "homecoming" of sorts for last year's backup QB Star Jackson who is playing for Georgia State along with players from Auburn and Georgia Tech. But the general level of their personnel is going to be far, far below anything Alabama has been up against.