The SportsRatings 2010 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams. These rankings predict how good the teams will be in 2009 before taking schedule into account, then the preview explores how well they should do given their schedule.
Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team. Two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win (straight up), and also an aggregate projection that allows for the uncertainty across a season (cumulative). The expectation for the team's season lies somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.
This installment covers teams from #81 to #85. To see the full list, click here.
| 81. Illinois Fighting Illini (Big Ten #9) |
2009 Results: Record: 3-9 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #81 Success: #93 Overall: #81
Post-Juice Williams, the Illini have a new look on offense and defense.
Offense (5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #81 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #89
With four-year starter Juice Williams gone the offense will have a new look and growing pains.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #79 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #108
After four up and down seasons Juice Williams will no longer guide the Illini, leaving a question mark at quarterback. With Eddie McGee (303 passing yards, 1 TD, 3 int.) moving to wide receiver and Jacob Charest (382, 2, 2) quitting the team, that leaves exactly zero game experience among three freshman at the position. Nathan Scheelhaase was named the starter, and it's not as if Williams' passing numbers from last year were gaudy: 1,632 yards, 12 TDs. But top receivers Arrelious Benn (490 yards) and Chris Duvalt (361) are gone (Benn was hobbled by injury most of '09). Florida transfer Jarred Fayson didn't live up to the hype last season (218 yards, 1 TD). The offense is moving to a more standard passing game while at the same time keeping the option of running the wildcat with McGee. The offensive line gave up 29 sacks last year and won't be any better. Scheelhaase is supposedly looking good, but I think the offense will realize its bread and butter will be on the ground.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #22 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #30
With little success in the air Illinois made most of their gains via rushing, and between Mikel Leshore and Jason Ford had 1,322 yards and 9 TDs. Both are back. Of course, QB Williams had 507 yards himself but Scheelhaase is mobile if not a runner like Williams and McGee may still get snaps at wildcat (he had 115 yards and 2 TDs rushing). The bulk of the ground production is back and the offensive line should be just as good at paving the way as three starters return. Gone are 3-year starter Jon Asamoah and center Erick Block but Randall Hunt, Jeff Allen, and Hugh Thornton are back while Ryan Palmer moves into one open slot. While the Illini rushing attack won't be of top 25 quality like last year due to Williams' absence, they will still get the job done.
Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #80 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #75
A much strong group of linebackers form the heart of this year's Illini defense.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #81 Adj. Pass Def: #47 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #80 Sacks: #62
Though Illinois is planning to mix it up on defense, they were essentially a 4-3 last year and will continue to set up that way often. They lose a lot of key players from a defensive line that already had trouble against the run, including Doug Pilcher and Josh Brent who struggled with academics and decided to go pro. Essentially one starter is back as Clay Nurse (5.5 sacks) and Corey Liuget both started six games last season. The linebacking corps is strong, however, with Nate Bussey, Russell Ellington, and #1 tackler Ian Thomas all back along with Martez Wilson who started in 2008. Thus the Illini are well-situated to use a 3-4 and with Brent gone may use that formation more. The secondary was poor last year—the entire team registered just 5 interceptions—and might not improve much this year as Tavon Wilson (7 pass breakups, 1 int) is the only starter back. Senior Travon Bellamy started in 2008, while Terry Hawthorne (1 int) started part-time last year but he'll miss time with a foot fracture, and Walter Aikens had law trouble, served a jail sentence, and was dismissed from the team. But overall the defense has four of its top five tacklers back and returns M. Wilson so they should be stronger this season, if only slightly.
Kicking Game: Anthony Santella returns at punter; he averaged 41.3 per kick last season. Derek Dimke took over as placekicker and hit 5 of 5 after Matt Eller only made 4 of 11. Both are back.
Return Game: Receiver Fayson took back punts but only averaged 5.9 per return, while Benn handled kickoffs with an excellent 26.5 average. Fayson may move to kick returner with fellow receiver Jack Ramsey taking more punts.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #71
After the Rose Bowl year in 2007 things have only gone south for Ron Zook, with back-to-back losing seasons. This year he had to replace a lot of his staff, a sure sign that seats are getting hot in Champaign-Urbana. This year's recruiting class wasn't so hot, however, and the majority of new talent on the field this year will be from last season's excellent class. They did get a blue chip quarterback, Chandler Whitmer, who competed with Scheelhaase for the starting job and should see time as backup.
2009 Recap Illinois kicked off the season with yet another neutral-field loss to Missouri, and this one was the worst one of the last three years, 37-9. They beat I-AA Illinois State but then lost five in a row starting with a 30-0 spaking by Ohio State. The Illini offense scored just 17, 14, 14, and 14 in the other four losses before scoring 38 and 35 to beat Michigan and Minnesota. Needing three wins for a bowl game they instead got zero, losing to Northwestern 21-16, at Cincinnati 49-36, and to Fresno State at home in a barnburner 53-52, losing on the final 2-point conversion, a fitting end to a disappointing year.
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Illinois 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/4 | Sat | N | Missouri | 38% | L | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | vs. | Southern Illinois | 49% | L | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | vs. | Northern Illinois | 50% | L | |||
| 10/2 | Sat | vs. | *Ohio State | 25% | L | |||
| 10/9 | Sat | @ | *Penn State | 31% | L | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | @ | *Michigan State | 36% | L | |||
| 10/23 | Sat | vs. | *Indiana | 58% | W | |||
| 10/30 | Sat | vs. | *Purdue | 53% | W | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | @ | *Michigan | 41% | L | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | vs. | *Minnesota | 48% | L | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | @ | *Northwestern | 44% | L | |||
| 12/3 | Fri | @ | Fresno State | 41% | L | |||
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Projection Straight up: 2-10 Cumulative: 5-7
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2010 Outlook With an easier schedule—they trade away Cincinnati for Northern Illinois basically—the Illini should definitely improve on 3-9, but perhaps not by too much.
Illinois will probably lose again to Missouri, but perhaps the Tigers are getting complacent about the series? In any case the next two home games against in-state foes are both winnable but both problematic. Southern Illinois is one of the best teams in the FCS and will give the Illini all they can handle. Meanwhile Northern Illinois is going to be perhaps the top MAC team. But despite the L ratings here the Illili have an excellent chance of winning both.
In the Big Ten the best chances for a win are Indiana and Purdue at home, with Minnesota being a tossup. Three wins are listed here for a 2-10 record which is very harsh, and the cumulative percentage yields a 5-7 record; with all the tossup games, good luck or back luck could see the Illini anywhere from 2-10 to 6-6.
The latter would require an upset on the road somewhere, probably Northwestern but maybe Fresno State or even Michigan. All are possibilities. Basically the team is on the verge of being bowl-eligible; if they're just a bit better than I expect—i.e. if Scheelhaase really delivers the goods—then the Illini could be playing somewhere in late December.
| 82. Kansas Jayhawks (Big Twelve #11; North #5) |
2009 Results: Record: 5-7 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #56 Success: #83 Overall: #56
Turner Gill takes over at KU but his first year could be rocky.
Offense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #30 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #67
With Reesing, Meier, and Briscoe gone, the offense is bound to suffer.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #3 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #40
Over the past three years Todd Reesing set the standard for future KU quarterbacks to try to live up to. In '09 he passed for 3,616 yards and 22 touchdowns against some pretty tough defenses, hence the #3 adjusted passing ranking. Reesing is no longer a Jayhawk which is bad enough, but neither are elite receivers Dezmon Briscoe (1,337 yards, 9 TDs) and Kerry Meier (985 yards, 8 TDs). Meier was a serviceable backup to Reesing before becoming a receiver but now the job may fall to Kale Pick, who completed 4 of 5 passes for 22 yards last season. He'll still have Johnathan Wilson and Bradley McDougald (767 yards but 0 TDs combined) as targets along with two converted d-backs, and an offensive line that returns four starters—but gave up 32 sacks (#98 when adjusted) last year. Even with all the shortcomings the KU passing attack will still be pretty good. Just not anywhere near top 5 in the nation.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #101 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #96
Kansas had a one-dimensional pass-happy, run-challenged offense last year, ranking outside the top 100 in adjusted yards per game. Leading rusher Toben Opurum had 9 TDs but just 577 yards; he's back but #2 Jake Sharp (the leader in '08). Underscoring KU's lack of true backs (and reliance on the passing game), #3 and #4 were QBs Pick and Reesing. Reesing had 6 rushing touchdowns while pick averaged 11.9 yards per carry, suggesting he could revive the Jayhawks' rushing numbers by himself next season. The offensive line will be a lot stronger next year. All five starters were back before Jeff Spikes hurt his leg and was lost for the year. Now they'll have to make due with the return of Sal Capra, Brad Thorson, Jeremiah Hatch, and Tanner Hawkinson, all of whom started every game last year. The 2nd string returns as well. With the more experienced line and with Pick at QB, the rushing numbers have to increase, if only modestly.
Defense (4 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #75 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #97
The late loss to injury of Huldon Tharp is one of several hits on the defense this year.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #75 Adj. Pass Def: #46 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #47 Sacks: #23
While the KU defense was poor against the run it excelled in pass pressure. Six players started half-time or more on the defensive line and three are gone including Maxwell Onyegbule and Jeff Wheeler, who combined for 11.5 sacks, while three return including Jake Laptad who had 6.5 sacks. At linebacker Drew Dudley (#2 tackler is back) but Arist Wright departs and Huldon Tharp will miss the season due to a foot injury. Chris Harris (9 pass breakups) is back in the secondary but Darrell Stuckey (#1 tackler) and Justin Thornton are gone, while two part-time starters (Daymond Patterson and D.J. Beshears) move to wide receiver. The KU defense will get fewer sacks this year and may drop quite a bit in pass defense.
Kicking Game: Kicker Jacob Branstetter (13 of 19 FG) and punter Alonso Rojas (41.4 average) are both back.
Return Game: Dezmon Briscoe averaged 22.7 yards per kickoff return and took one back for a touchdown. Brad McDougal also returned kicks (18.8 average) and freshman DeShaun Sands will help out. Daymond Patterson is switching from d-back to receiver but will continue to return punts. He averaged 8 yards per return last season.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #85
Suddenly, weeks after the initial allegations of player mistreatment, Mark Mangino was gone, perhaps the most sudden reversal of coaching fortune this side of Mike Leach. Turner Gill comes in from his miraculous program-building at Buffalo and inherits a rebuilding year in Lawrence. His first recruiting class isn't very good, like many coaching transition classes. It ranks 11th in the Big Twelve, quite a change from last year's top 30 class. WR Brandon Bourbon and RB Keeston Terry, both from Missouri, are the consensus top picks from the small class.
2009 Recap From 12-1 to 8-5 to 5-7, Kansas hit the highs and then fell quickly. Last year was a high and low all in one as the Jayhawks won their first five games then lost the last seven. The turnaround started with an upset loss to Colorado, then snowballed as they faced the tougher teams on the schedule. But they also lost to Kansas State and after the Nebraska game—when Mangino's abuse allegations came forth—the team was too distracted to put up a fight against Texas. They made one last stand against Missouri but fell 41-39.
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Kansas 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/4 | Sat | vs. | North Dakota State | 68% | W | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | vs. | Georgia Tech | 30% | L | |||
| 9/17 | Fri | @ | Southern Miss | 41% | L | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | vs. | New Mexico State | 82% | W | |||
| 10/2 | Sat | @ | *Baylor | 42% | L | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | vs. | *Kansas State | 51% | W | |||
| 10/23 | Sat | vs. | *Texas A&M | 33% | L | |||
| 10/30 | Sat | @ | *Iowa State | 47% | L | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | vs. | *Colorado | 48% | L | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | @ | *Nebraska | 19% | L | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | vs. | *Oklahoma State | 50% | L | |||
| 11/27 | Sat | N | *Missouri | 32% | L | |||
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Projection Straight up: 3-9 Cumulative: 5-7
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2010 Outlook This is what a rebuilding year looks like. KU has two clear, certain wins on the schedule, that's all. There are four other games that are basically too close to call; one of them falls into the W column for a 3-9 prediction.
Accumulating the odds yields a probable 5-7 record, and that's easy to accept: beat North Dakota State, New Mexico State, Kansas State, Colorado, and Oklahoma State, all at home, and that's a 5-7 season.
Just one road victory—over Iowa State—would put the Jayhawks into a bowl game. They just need a touch of luck, or, preferably, for Kerry Pick to play better than expected at quarterback, and/or for the defense to overcome its personnel losses seamlessly.
I think either 5-7 or 4-8 is about right for this team; they could win the games I mention above, or win the three "designated" on the chart while splitting the two close home games. There's nothing really preventing Kansas from reaching a bowl game—though nothing prevents them from going 2-10 either. A lot of that might be up to Gill and how good of a motivator he is. Judging by his run at Buffalo, he's good. Let's see if it translates to a bigger program.
| 83. Kent State Golden Flashes (MAC #4; East #2) |
2009 Results: Record: 5-7 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #102 Success: #92 Overall: #103
Kent State is one of the few teams that is better nearly across the board; they should easily have a winning season in 2010.
Offense (8 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #112 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #99
Eugene Jarvis returns for his 6th year as both the rushing and passing yields should rise.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #50 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #32
Giorgio Morgan began last season as the starter but with a 50% completion rate, 0 TDs, and 5 interceptions he was eclipsed by Spencer Keith, who garnered 2,147 yards and 14 TDs. He still had 11 interceptions, but then he was a true freshman. Both are back and Keith should be even better as a sophomore, particularly since his two top targets return in Tyshon Goode and Kendrick Pressley (1,056 yards, 8 TDs combined) as well as four of the next six. The O-line provided decent protection in '09 and should continue to do so as Keith racks up increased yardage in '10.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #116 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #103
Kent State had one of the worst rushing attacks on an opponent-adjusted basis in the country. Eugene Jarvis was hurt early and finished #4 behind Jacquise Terry (648 yards), Dri Archer (246), and Andre Flowers (180). With Jarvis having gained 1,669 in 2007 it's fair to say that there is a lot of upside in Kent State's rushing game which also has everyone else returning. The offensive line has three starters—Chris Anzevino, Michael Fay, and Brian Winters back, while Dante Campbell departs and Pat Reedy moves to tight end. The return of Jarvis is the key here; how healthy he stays will determine whether he approaches his 2007 form or his lesser 801 yards from 2008, but either way he'll lead the way to greater ground production.
Defense (7 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #81 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #47
The top six tacklers return to the Kent State defense.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #89 Adj. Pass Def: #80 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #60 Sacks: #43
The Flashes lose defensive linemen Kevin Hogan and Aaron Hull who combined for 10 sacks, but Quinton Rainey (9 tackles for loss) and Monte Simmons (8 sacks + 8 tackles for loss) are both back. At linebacker #1 tackler Cobrani Mixon (108 tackles) returns with Dorian Wood. The secondary has the #2, 3, and 4 tacklers back in Brian Lainhart (7 interceptions), Josh Pleasant (11 pass breakups), and Dan Hartman (9 pass breakups, 4 int.). The defense should make a sizeable upward move.
Kicking Game: Matt Rinehard (40.9 punting average) and Freddy Cortez (13 of 19 FG) return for the Flashes.
Return Game: Anthony Bowman remains the main kickoff returner after averaging 22.0 per return including one touchdown. Last year Leneric Muldrow averaged 9.7 per punt return; this year Eugene Jarvis will join the punt fielding crew.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #102
Doug Martin's 7th recruiting class at Kent State isn't great but is par for the course for the MAC. And that's not to say there aren't some consensus above-average recruits, among them LB Steve Mehrer, DB Calvin Tiggle, and DB Jerome Davis.
2009 Recap Kent State beat only Coastal Carolina in the pre-conference season, losing to Boston College, Iowa State, and Baylor in convincing defeats. But in the MAC they started out 4-1, losing to Bowling Green while beating Miami of Ohio, Eastern Michigan, Ohio, and Western Michigan. They dropped their final three games, however, including a 9-6 home loss to Buffalo that kept them ineligible for a bowl at 5-7.
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Kent State 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/2 | Thu | vs. | Murray State | 88% | W | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | @ | Boston College | 31% | L | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | @ | Penn State | 29% | L | |||
| 10/2 | Sat | @ | *Miami (Ohio) | 51% | W | |||
| 10/9 | Sat | vs. | *Akron | 66% | W | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | @ | *Toledo | 64% | W | |||
| 10/23 | Sat | @ | *Bowling Green | 64% | W | |||
| 10/30 | Sat | vs. | *Ball State | 59% | W | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | vs. | *Temple | 48% | L | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | vs. | Army | 53% | W | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | @ | *Western Michigan | 56% | W | |||
| 11/26 | Fri | vs. | *Ohio | 55% | W | |||
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Projection Straight up: 9-3 Cumulative: 7-5
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2010 Outlook This should be a great year for Kent State football, their first outright winning season since 2001.
Only Boston College and Penn State on the road look like fairly certain losses, while Temple at home is a likely loss, too. Miami (OH) and Army are essentially tossups. That leaves seven games—Murray State, Akron, Toledo, Bowling Green, Ball State, Western Michigan, and Ohio that should be wins, for at least a 7-5 record.
That matches the cumulative projection, while the straight up win/loss count gives the Flashes a 9-3 mark.
To put this into perspective, 7 wins would be the most Kent State football has seen since 1987, and 9 would be unprecedented since 1973.
My take on it is that the Flashes will win the seven that they're supposed to and split the Miami and Army games to go 8-4. That would give them their highest win total since 1976, 34 years ago. Of course, a bowl game would follow, so the potential exists for an 11-2 year if everything goes right. That would be the program's highest total ever by 2 wins. If Jarvis has another season like 2007, it might just happen.
| 84. Army Black Knights (Independent #3) |
2009 Results: Record: 5-7 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #104 Success: #97 Overall: #104
A defensive upgrade, many returning starters, and an easy schedule propel Army into bowl contention.
Offense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #117 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #115
Army's offense improves where it actually matters to them: the rushing game.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #120 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #120
Because Army rarely passes, this section is barely relevant; they are the nation's least productive passing team and will remain so. But QB Trent Steelman was revealed as a halfway decent passer: 637 yards on 49% completions, very good by Army standards (other QBs Chip Bowen completed 35%, and Carson Williams 42%). Steelman had a 3:2 TD:int ratio (and that's not just a "ratio", those were his exact numbers, 3 TDs and 2 interceptions). The Knights do lose the best of their receiving corps: giant Ali Villanueva, who somehow managed 522 yards and all 5 Army TD catches, and Damion Hunter (162 yards, just 6.2 yds. per reception). No one else had even 50 yards. So Army's best passer in a long time has no one to throw to, preventing the Black Knights from emerging from the passing offense cellar, but it doesn't matter: Army will continue to use the pass as a surprise play.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #26 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #16
The bread, butter, and main course of Army's offense is the run option. They were a near top 25 team in rushing offense (when adjusted for opposition), but that only underscores how poor the offense really is—note that they finished #117 in scoring offense. Also on a per-attempt basis their rushing offense is just 48th best in the country. But the Knights will be even more productive this season as their two top ground-gainers are back: QB Steelman (706 yards) and slotback Patrick Mealy (673). #3 Kingsley Ehie (473) moves to linebacker and #4 Jameson Carter (238) left the team, but Army always find players who can run the ball and Air Force transfer fullback Jared Hassin is supposedly the real deal. The offensive line is stacked with returning talent, having four senior starters back: Center Zach Peterson, guard Seth Reed, and tackles Anees Merzi and Jason Johnson. Only Fritz Bentler is gone from the lineup. Behind this line Army's rushing attack will truly be a top 25 unit.
Defense (7.5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #69 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #38
Army's D is set to take a big step forward.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #33 Adj. Pass Def: #57 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #99 Sacks: #49
Army had a respectable sack total in 2009 thanks to one man—Josh McNary, who returns after posting 12.5 last year. Also back on the D-line, which moves from a strictly 4-man to sometimes 4, sometimes 3-man line, is Mike Gann. At linebacker all three starters return and should insure that Army's solid rush defense stays that way; they are Andrew Rodriguez, Stephen Anderson, and Steve Erzinger, the team's #1, 2, and 3 tacklers from last year. Rodriguez has been having back trouble and may or may not play this season, however. Aiding the laggard pass defense are three returning starters in the secondary, led by Donovan Travis (4 interceptions), Antuan Aaron, and Donnie Dixon. Overall the top six tacklers are back and with a very strong group at linebacker and more experienced secondary, Army's defense is going to keep them in a lot more games.
Kicking Game: Alex Carlton made 18 of 24 field goals last year; he returns along with punter Jonathan Bulls who averaged 39.2 yards per kick.
Return Game: Damion Hunter departs after netting 20.5 yards per kickoff return, while Josh Jones' job will go to Marquis Morris after Jones averaged just 5.8 yards per punt return. Patrick Mealy will take over on kickoffs.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #60
Rich Ellerson exceeded expectations in his first year as Army head coach, almost taking the Knights to a bowl game. The service academy recruiting rankings are inflated by the sheer number of recruits they get. This year Army reels in two possible stars, offensive lineman A.J. McGovern and running back Larry Dixon. The rest of the 50+strong group consists mostly of decent college-level players with some potential and many others of FCS and lower-division level quality.
2009 Recap Army kicked off 2009 with a 27-14 win at Eastern Michigan which would be their only convincing victory to the season. They beat Ball State 24-17, Vanderbilt 16-13 in overtime, VMI 22-17, and North Texas 17-13. Their 5-7 finish was their best tally since the great 10-2 team of 1996, greatly aided by a very easy schedule.
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Army 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/4 | Sat | @ | Eastern Michigan | 67% | W | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | vs. | Hawaii | 58% | W | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | vs. | North Texas | 59% | W | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | @ | Duke | 40% | L | |||
| 10/2 | Sat | vs. | Temple | 48% | L | |||
| 10/9 | Sat | @ | Tulane | 74% | W | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | N | Rutgers | 40% | L | |||
| 10/30 | Sat | vs. | VMI | 82% | W | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | vs. | Air Force | 45% | L | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | @ | Kent St | 47% | L | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | vs. | Notre Dame | 40% | L | |||
| 12/11 | Sat | N | Navy | 42% | L | |||
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Projection Straight up: 5-7 Cumulative: 6-6
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2010 Outlook Army again plays a very easy schedule, in fact they face 9 of the 12 teams they played in 2009. They trade Ball State, Iowa State, and Vanderbilt for Hawaii, Kent State, and Notre Dame.
But this year for the first time in a long time there isn't a single game that one can completely write off. Army should be reasonably competitive in every one. Starting at 0-12 Eastern Michigan again, then at home against Hawaii and North Texas, the Knights should start 3-0. Tulane and VMI should be easy wins while Temple and Kent State are tossups. Duke, Rutgers, Air Force, Notre Dame, and Navy are tougher but all within reasonable upset boundaries.
So while Army looks to repeat 5-7 based on individual games, there are the tossups and close games which bring the cumulative projection very close to 7-5 which isn't far-fetched. Even giving the Black Knights just one out of two vs. Temple and Kent State puts Army at 6-6 and eligible for a bowl game for the first time since 1996, which is the minimum I think they'll achieve in 2010.
| 85. Wyoming Cowboys (Mountain West #5) |
2009 Results: Record: 7-6 Bowl: Beat Fresno St. 42-35 2OT (New Mexico Bowl) Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #90 Success: #72 Overall: #89
After last year's success the team might take a step back in success as they move forward in quality.
Offense (7 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #105 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #101
Better passing offsets a lagging ground game and the offense should become marginally better.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #91 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #68
Wyoming hopes for a much better passing attack in '10 in QB Austyn Carta-Samuels' sophomore year. Carta-Samuels took over early in the year and finished just shy of 2,000 yards of production and a 10:5 TD:int ratio. His completion % wasn't stellar—59%—but it was far better than Robert Benjamin's (46%) or Karsten Sween (21%). Those two are gone but Dax Crum, who saw action in 2008, could back him up along with others who lack experience. More good news: the top three receivers return. David Leonard led with 77 recpetions, 705 yards, and 3 TDs, while Zach Bolger and Travis Burkhalter added 527 combined. Depth is a bit of an issue as potential starter David Tooley left the team meaning that beyond the top three, four of the six who had over 100 receiving yards are gone. There is also continued concern on the offensive line, which allowed 37 sacks (109th in the nation, adjusted). But with the return of the top talent at the skill positions the passing game should make a sizeable move toward respectability this season.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #79 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #89
Alvester Alexander (640 yards, 7 TDs) will carry most of the burden of carrying the running game this year. Last season's #2, Brandon Stewart is gone along with the rest of the RB corps. QB Carta-Samuels was #3 with 366 yards (even after docking 273 for sacks). So Alexander is the man, meaning he could have pretty good individual numbers if he stays healthy but the team as a whole won't. The offensive line does return three starters—Sam Sterner, Clayton Kirven, and Nick Carlson—though one (Carlson) is just a sophomore. They lose a 3-year starter (Ryan Otterson) and a 2-year starter (Russ Arnold) and may be a weak link on the team again.
Defense (7 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #63 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #42
The Cowboys return the secondary intact and overall, seven of the top eight tacklers from last year are back.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #95 Adj. Pass Def: #39 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #73 Sacks: #70
Wyoming's rushing defense was a big problem last season, and move from a 3-4 to a 4-3 in an attempt to resolve that issue. The problem is that all three starters from last year's 3-man line are gone. John Fletcher (7 sacks), Fred Givens (5.5 tackles for loss), and Mitch Unrein (4 sacks) depart, leaving four open spots in the D-line. To fill the void starting linebackers Gabe Knapton (128 tackles) and Josh Biezuns take on new positions, which of course leaves the Cowboys depleted at linebacker, particularly as they lose Weston Johnson (106 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss). But again, with only three slots to fill and Brian Hendricks (116 tackles) returning the damage is lessened. So to sum up, the front seven returns three starters, which isn't terrible but certainly not ideal. Ideal is the Cowboys' situation with the secondary, where everyone is back. Starters Chris Prosinski (#1 tackler w/140), Marcell and Tashaun Gipson (13 pass break-ups between them), and Shamiel Gary are all back as well as the 2nd string. Pass protection wasn't Wyoming's problem last year but hopefully the 4-man front can slow down the run while the secondary prevents big plays. If that occurs then Wyoming will make a big step forward on defense.
Kicking Game: Austin McCoy did well as a punter last year, averaging 43.3 per kick, but not as well as placekicker as he lost his job to Ian Watts (12 of 15 FG). Both return this season.
Return Game: Leading receiver Leonard had an excellent 12.9 average on punt returns while starting corner Marcell Gipson was solid (22.6) on kickoff returns; both are back.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #97
Dave Christensen took over as head coach last year and brought Wyoming back to bowl eligibility right away, and beating Fresno State as big underdogs. This year's recruiting class ranks about 7th in the Mountain West. One of the better prospects, with certainly the best name, is RB Nehemie Kankolongo, who comes to Wyoming by way of Coquitlam, British Columbia.
2009 Recap Wyoming entered the 2009 season with low expectations, and beating Weber State just 29-22 didn't raise them. They played Texas tough for most of the game, and though they eventually lost 41-10 (at home) it was a "moral victory." Colorado shut them out 24-0 which showed they needed some offense, and it was around this time that Carta-Samuels took over and led them to three straight wins: UNLV 30-27, FAU 30-28, and New Mexico 37-13. Their next three opponents were Air Force, Utah, and BYU, and they lost all three but the first two were respectable (10-0, 22-10) before BYU blew them out 52-0. At 4-5 they needed two more wins and had yet to play TCU, so essentially they needed to beat both San Diego State and Colorado State on the road to get to a bowl game. They won 30-27 in San Diego and 17-16 in Ft. Collins and went to the New Mexico Bowl, where they were a 13 point underdog to Fresno State. The Cowboys played with heart and won 35-28 in double overtime.
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Wyoming 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/4 | Sat | vs. | Southern Utah | 65% | W | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | @ | Texas | 22% | L | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | vs. | Boise State | 17% | L | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | vs. | *Air Force | 46% | L | |||
| 10/2 | Sat | @ | Toledo | 63% | W | |||
| 10/9 | Sat | @ | *TCU | 9% | L | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | vs. | *Utah | 39% | L | |||
| 10/23 | Sat | @ | *Brigham Young | 36% | L | |||
| 10/30 | Sat | vs. | *San Diego State | 56% | W | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | @ | *New Mexico | 69% | W | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | @ | *UNLV | 51% | W | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | vs. | *Colorado State | 55% | W | |||
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Projection Straight up: 6-6 Cumulative: 5-7
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2010 Outlook The Cowboys might be better this year but it will be hard to repeat last year's success. Looking at their schedule it appears that bowl eligibility will again be touch-and-go.
Wyoming should beat Southern Utah, a good FCS team despite their 5-6 record. Texas and Boise State are a 1-2 killer punch on the pre-conference slate, though Toledo should put them at 2-2 outside of the MWC.
In-conference Air Force, Utah, and BYU will again be tough though not as fearsome as last year, and perhaps one of those could be a win. But it's not until late in the year that the easier games come. San Diego State and New Mexico should be wins, and UNLV and Colorado State *could* both be as well.
That adds up to six games that the Cowboys should win, but both the final games are tossups and the cumulative projection falls just short of predicting bowl eligibility. Unless Wyoming gets an upset earlier, they'll be 4-6 and needing to win two close games to make it. Much like last year's scenario, except this season only one of the must-wins is on the road. Christensen appears to be able to motivate the team well so if they beat UNLV they should have no trouble winning the final game to go 6-6. Or they could upset Air Force, BYU, or Utah to give themselves some breathing room. Since it looks like they'll either reach six wins or fall one short, I'll pick them to repeat at 6-6 since their coach seems to know what he's doing in turning the program around.
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