The SportsRatings 2010 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams. These rankings predict how good the teams will be in 2009 before taking schedule into account, then the preview explores how well they should do given their schedule.
Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team. Two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win (straight up), and also an aggregate projection that allows for the uncertainty across a season (cumulative). The expectation for the team's season lies somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.
This installment covers teams from #76 to #80. To see the full list, click here.
| 76. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (C-USA #6; West #3) |
2009 Results: Record: 5-7 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #88 Success: #95 Overall: #88
The Golden Hurricane's offense will carry them in 2010.
Offense (9 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #86 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #56
With lots of starters back at skills positions and the O-line, Tulsa's offense rebounds.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #36 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #17
Originally at Texas, G.J. Kinne started for Tulsa last season and despite getting almost no protection (46 sacks, 119th in adjusted pass protection) passed for 2,732 yards and 22 TDs. He completed 60% and had a reasonable 10 interceptions. He'll be a junior this season and has star receiver Damaris Johnson (1,131 yards) back along with the #2 and #4 in yardage, h-back Charles Clay (530 yards) and WR Trae Johnson (311, 8 TDs) who had a 1,000-yard season as a freshman in 2007. They lose #3 Slick Shelley (511) and #5 A.J. Whitmore (238) is gone due to academics but Oklahoma transfer Jameel Owens won a hardship waiver to play this season. The offensive line can only get better this year as they lose just one starter. With a year of experience under his belt, a full crew of receivers, and probably far fewer sacks bogging him down Kinne should have a great year and Tulsa's passing game will be back at top 25 level.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #91 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #66
The Tulsa rushing attack was so weak that QB Kinne was the team's leading rusher with 393 yards, just ahead of Jamad Williams' 389, even after subtracting out 318 sack yards from his total. In fact, Kinne lost more yards than the #3 rusher (Charles Clay) gained for the year. The offensive line returns the equivalent of four starters: Brandon Thomas, Clint Anderson, and Trent Dupy return along with half-time starters David Lazenby and Tyler Holmes, who was full-time in '08. 3-year starter Curt Puckett is the only loss. With everyone back except Charles Opeseyitan (218 yards last year) who was kicked off the team and a much better offensive line, production is sure to increase.
Defense (5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #87 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #95
On D, Tulsa loses their leaders in sacks and interceptions.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #88 Adj. Pass Def: #79 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #110 Sacks: #36
Tulsa's defense had one bright spot: the pass rush. They sacked opposing quarterbacks 25 times to rank #36 in adjusted statistics. This year they lose their #1 sack artist, Un'tavious Scott (6 sacks) along with starter Wilson Garrison in the D-line. Returning starters Odrick Ray and Cory Dorris combined for just 4. Meanwhile at linebacker they lose Mike Bryan and James Lockett (7 sacks combined) while returning Tanner Antle (2.5). Apart from sacking the quarterback the pass defense was terrible and could get worse. #1 tackler DeAundre Brown (102 tackles) plays the hybrid LB/CB 'spur' position and Charles Davis, who started in '07 and '08, is back with half-time starter Dexter McCoil, but they lose John Destin (4 interceptions) and Kenny Sims (10 pass breakups). The defense looks a bit weaker and will probably sink in the sack rankings.
Kicking Game: Michael Such returns at punter after booting and excellent 44.5 per kick, while placekicker Kevin Fitzpatrick was nearly perfect hitting 13 of 14 field goals.
Return Game: Leading receiver Damaris Johnson was also a very dangerous return man. He averaged a fantastic 14.2 yards per punt return and took one back for a touchdown. On kickoffs he averaged 24.6 yards. He will continue to put fear into opponents and should have another TD or two this season.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #76
Todd Graham had coached some high-powered offenses here but last season was a disappointment without offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn in charge. Last year's recruiting class was better and this season's is middle of the pack for the C-USA. Only a handful of players are consensus high-potential recruits.
2009 Recap Tulsa jumped out to a 4-1 start but the pickins were easy: Tulane, New Mexico, New Mexico State, and Rice all turned out to be among the worse FBS teams, while Oklahoma destroyed the Hurricane 45-0. They played Boise State surprisingly close, 28-21, and later nearly won a shootout with Houston falling 46-45 after a late drive, onside kick and field goal sank them. That loss took the stuffing out of Tulsa, who was by then 4-5 and were beaten easily by East Carolina and Southern Miss. The Hurricane got one last win, in overtime 33-30 against Memphis to finish 5-7.
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Tulsa 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/5 | Sun | @ | *East Carolina | 55% | W | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | vs. | Bowling Green | 73% | W | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | @ | Oklahoma State | 44% | L | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | vs. | Central Arkansas | 71% | W | |||
| 10/2 | Sat | @ | *Memphis | 61% | W | |||
| 10/9 | Sat | @ | *SMU | 47% | L | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | vs. | *Tulane | 82% | W | |||
| 10/30 | Sat | @ | Notre Dame | 37% | L | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | vs. | *Rice | 62% | W | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | @ | *Houston | 34% | L | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | vs. | *UTEP | 67% | W | |||
| 11/27 | Sat | vs. | *Southern Miss | 48% | L | |||
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Projection Straight up: 7-5 Cumulative: 7-5
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2010 Outlook Tulsa should be back to their winning ways this season and could start 2010 at 4-1 just like 2009. But they won't drop six games in a row following that as their overall schedule is pretty easy and the offense should be a lot better. In fact, starting 6-1 is not a stretch.
If they can beat East Carolina on the road, Bowling Green and Central Arkansas should be no problem at home, and they have a shot at starting 4-0. At worst they should end September 2-2.
They should defeat Memphis and Tulane and have a good shot at SMU. Notre Dame and Houston are the toughest teams on the schedule but Rice and UTEP are probable wins and Southern Miss at home is another possibility.
Both the Win-Loss and Cumulative projections say the Hurricane will finish 7-5, but to me that looks like a minimum. I think 8-4 is more likely and 9-3 would not be shocking. The road games at Houston and Notre Dame are the only ones I count Tulsa out of, though winning at in-state rival Oklahoma State will be tough. Their designated "wins" above are all pretty solid so it's hard to imagine them not reaching bowl eligibility unless their terrible luck from '09 continues.
| 77. SMU Mustangs (C-USA #6; West #3) polls: AP#46 USA/Coaches #49 |
2009 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Beat Nevada 45-10 (Hawaii Bowl) Poll finish: USA #43
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #78 Success: #68 Overall: #77
June Jones' team consolidates its gains this season before further advancement in years ahead.
Offense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #66 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #81
Two summer losses sink the offense's expected improvement.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #26 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #41
Kyle Padron had an excellent freshman season. Forced into action when Bo Levi Mitchell (1,725 yards, 12 TD, 10 int) had ailments Padron was remarkably efficient, hitting 67% of his passes for 1,922 yards and a 10:4 TD:int ratio. Mitchell transferred defaulting the job to Padron while New Mexico State transfer J.J. McDermott adds experience at backup. The Mustangs lose top receiver Emmanuel Sanders' 1,339 yards but had the next three back, starters Aldrick Robinson (800 yards), Terrance Wilkerson (527), and Cole Beasley (493)—that is, until Wilkerson was declared ineligible. The offensive line seemed to be improved from last season's 36 sacks (#112 in nation, adj.) but lost Josh LeRibeus to academics, too. Thus instead of taking another step forward passing production may fade a bit. Despite the unexpected loss of a starter at both wide receiver and O-line, Padron should throw for over 3,000 yards in 2010.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #112 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #115
There's less hope for a great year in the rushing game, but there's really not very far to fall from last year's #112 ranking. Although the Mustangs boasted 1,118 yard rusher Shawnbrey McNeal (12 TDs) the defenses they faced were poor and no other back was productive in June Jones' pass-oriented offense. Zach Line did score 7 touchdowns in just 189 yards but true freshmen Darryl Fields or Kevin Pope might win the top spot. The offensive line will be better but after losing LeRibeus the gains are less pronounced. Back are Kelvin Beachum, J.T. Brooks, and Bryce Tennison, while Blake McJunkin started most of 2008. Gone is 2-year starting center Mitch Enright. The stronger line will help but unless one of the freshman is a star the running game will be poor in 2010.
Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #82 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #76
The defense will make a move toward more respectability in 2010.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #74 Adj. Pass Def: #65 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #63 Sacks: #91
Two starters, Marquis Frazier (4 sacks) and Taylor Thompson (5.5 sacks) return at defensive end on the 3-man line. At linebacker they lose Chase Kennemer, easily the team's top tackler with 135 including 11 tackles for loss. But Pete Fleps and Youri Yenga are back and former starter Justin Smart joins them. The secondary loses Rock Dennis (5 interceptions) and Bryan McCann (10 tackles for loss) which hurts, but Sterling Moore (11 tackles for loss) and Chris Banjo (#2 tackler) return. Overall 8 of the top 11 tacklers are back and the defense should improve.
Kicking Game: Matt Szymanski returns to both punt (41.9 average last year) and kick (11 of 16 field goals) for the Mustangs.
Return Game: Some poor soul will attempt to adequately replace Emmanuel Sanders who had an excellent 13.8 yard punt return average and one touchdown return. It was to be J.R. McConico but he isn't eligible anymore. Chris Butler averaged 20.4 yards on 14 kickoff returns, and he'll see more duty as Bryan McCann (24.2 ave.) moves on. It's doubtful the return squad will be quite as effective this season.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #84
June Jones made a great leap forward with SMU last season as the Mustangs went from 1-11 to 8-5 including a bowl win. The decent recruiting class this year ranks in the top half of the conference. The two freshman running backs mentioned in the Ground Game section will be among the most prominent new faces on the team.
2009 Recap Southern Methodist barely beat I-AA Stephen F. Austin but followed that up with a win over UAB to stand at 2-0, already beating the previous year's win total. Unfortunately they took a step back by losing to lowly Washington State in an overtime heartbreaker. After losing to TCU the Mustangs bounced back with an important win over East Carolina and lost again in overtime, this time to Navy at home. But they won two close games in a row—31-28 over Rice and 35-31 over UTEP—to put them at 6-4 and bowl eligible, and they beat Tulane for good measure. SMU's best effort of the year was the 45-10 crushing of Nevada in the Hawaii Bowl.
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SMU 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/5 | Sun | @ | Texas Tech | 21% | L | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | vs. | *UAB | 55% | W | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | vs. | Washington State | 68% | W | |||
| 9/24 | Fri | vs. | TCU | 18% | L | |||
| 10/2 | Sat | @ | *Rice | 61% | W | |||
| 10/9 | Sat | vs. | *Tulsa | 52% | W | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | @ | Navy | 41% | L | |||
| 10/23 | Sat | vs. | *Houston | 39% | L | |||
| 10/30 | Sat | @ | *Tulane | 75% | W | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | @ | *UTEP | 61% | W | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | vs. | *Marshall | 56% | W | |||
| 11/27 | Sat | @ | *East Carolina | 54% | W | |||
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Projection Straight up: 8-4 Cumulative: 6-6
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2010 Outlook On the whole the team is roughly as good as it was last season, so it shouldn't be a surprise that they're picked to go about 7-5 again.
It's easier to look at the losses. Texas Tech and TCU are very likely in the L column. Navy and Houston are going to be tough. UAB is a tossup.
Among the wins, the Mustangs will surely get revenge against Washington State. Rice on the road and UAB at home lead toward SMU. And the last four games should all be wins of varying certainty.
While that adds up to 7 wins, and by cumulative odds only amounts to 6-6, beating Tulsa at home would put them at 8-4. And in reality a 10-2 season is not much of a stretch but would require quite a bit of luck. The Mustangs could also split the closer games (Rice/Tulsa/Marshall/East Carolina) and finish 5-7, but any lower than that would require a lot of bad luck. I'm very confident that SMU will repeat as a bowl team, and they'll most likely repeat their 7-5 '09 finish.
| 78. Iowa State Cyclones (Big 12 #12; North #6) |
2009 Results: Record: 7-6 Bowl: Beat Minnesota 14-13 (Insight Bowl) Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #68 Success: #63 Overall: #70
An improving Cyclone offense is undermined by a wilting defense.
Offense (7 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #90 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #74
With dual-threat quarterbacks and a solid running game the Cyclone offense moves up the ladder.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #80 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #58
Austen Arnaud didn't have a super-productive '09 through the air, passing for just over 2,000 yards and throwing 14 touchdowns—and 13 interceptions. But he made it worth it via his athleticism, as he was a true dual threat, as was backup Jerome Tiller. Both are back, Arnaud for his senior year and Tiller for his soph, and Arnaud has been working on his passing and indeed improved throughout last season in general. While leading receiver Marquis Hamilton (606 yards) is gone, five of the next six are back including Jake Williams and Darius Darks who combined for 7 TD catches. The offensive line gave up just 16 sacks last season, #11 in the nation adjusted for opposition, though that's partially due to have two running quarterbacks. Overall the passing game should be much more productive in the 2nd year of Paul Rhoads' spread system.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #25 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #20
Iowa State was one of the better rushing teams in the nation last season. Facing tough rushing defenses in the Big 12 they were 35th in per-game yardage and in the top 25 when corrected for opposition. They should be even better this season as nearly all their ground production returns, including top back Alexander Robinson who had 1,195 yards and 6 touchdowns. #3 rusher Jeremiah Schwartz is gone but Arnaud and Tiller were #2 and #4 with 561 and 216, and 8 and 2 touchdowns respectively. Then there's Florida transfer Bo Williams, who had 50 yards—in just 2 carries. He needed knee surgery in the off-season, which may explain why he didn't get that third carry. The offensive line returns starters Ben Lamaak, Alex Alvarez, and Kelechi Osemele and should be comparable to last year's solid line, despite losing Reggie Stephens and Scott Haughton, who was dismissed in the summer for violating team rules. If not for the latter the rushing attack could have been in the top 15 but now they'll have to settle for the top 20.
Defense (4 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #46 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #84
Key losses and a weak linebacker corps could leave the Cyclone D softer.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #93 Adj. Pass Def: #104 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #87 Sacks: #110
The problems with last year's defensive line won't be solved but things should be better: two starters return from last year and another is back from '08. Bailey Johnson and Patrick Neal are joined by 3-year starter Rashawn Parker who took a medical redshirt last season. They do lose Christopher Lyle (the team leader with five sacks), Nate Frere, and potential starter Austin Alburtis who graduated and left school since the spring, but overall this group should help improve the rush D. No starters return at linebacker, with both #1 tackler Jesse Smith (135 tackles) and #3 Fred Garrin gone. In the secondary, James Sims (5 interceptions) and Leonard Johnson are the team's top returning tacklers, but #2 tackler James Smith is gone. In all the team loses its top three tacklers and has little experience at linebacker, though they will employ a 4-2-5 much of the time to reduce that problem.
Kicking Game: Grant Mahoney is back at placekicker, hoping to improve his 13 of 20 performance, while Mike Brandtner moves on after averaging 40.8 yards per punt. His replacement will be true freshman Kirby Van Der Kamp.
Return Game: D-backs David Sims and Leonard Johnson returned kickoffs for the Cyclones, with Sims averaging 23.4 yards per return and Johnson 3 yards fewer. Receiver Josh Lenz returned punts at a dismal 4.8 yard clip and will try, try again this season.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #56
Paul Rhodes was ISU's third coach in four years when he was hired to replace Gene Chizik, who went back to Auburn whence he came, after taking a 4-8 Cyclone team and turning in 3-9 and 2-10 seasons. Rhoads—also a former Auburn defensive coordinator—took the team to a bowl (and won it) on his first try, though with Chizik's recruits of course. But Rhoads' second recruiting class is the equal of Chizik's from his two years here, good for about 9th place in the Big 12. JUCOs Anthony Young and Chris Young, a D-back from California and a wide receiver from Texas respectively, show Rhoads' ability to recruit solid players in national hotbeds into a more remote midwest location. There are about a half dozen recruits from each of California, Florida, and Texas in the 2010 class.
2009 Recap After two dismal seasons with Gene Chizik, Iowa State took Paul Rhoads from Auburn when Chizik bailed to be the Tigers' head coach. By the fourth game the 'Clones had won as many games with Rhoads as they had with Chizik, as ISU lost to Iowa while beating North Dakota State, Kent State, and Army by convincing scores. They lost to both Kansas teams but beat Baylor to top Chizik's total, then upset Nebraska 9-7—in Lincoln—in a wild game where the Cornhuskers fumbled away numerous certain touchdowns near the goal line. Whomped by Texas A&M and Oklahoma State, the Cyclones beat Colorado for their key sixth win before falling to Missouri. Against Minnesota in the Insight Bowl ISU played like they wanted to win unlike the Gophers, who fumbled away the game in Iowa State territory like many of the Cyclones' victims did.
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Iowa State 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/2 | Thu | vs. | Northern Illinois | 50% | W | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | @ | Iowa | 29% | L | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | N | *Kansas State | 48% | L | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | vs. | Northern Iowa | 49% | L | |||
| 10/2 | Sat | vs. | *Texas Tech | 26% | L | |||
| 10/9 | Sat | vs. | Utah | 41% | L | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | @ | *Oklahoma | 14% | L | |||
| 10/23 | Sat | @ | *Texas | 24% | L | |||
| 10/30 | Sat | vs. | *Kansas | 53% | W | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | vs. | *Nebraska | 26% | L | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | @ | *Colorado | 42% | L | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | vs. | *Missouri | 37% | L | |||
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Projection Straight up: 2-10 Cumulative: 4-8
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2010 Outlook With a much tougher schedule and an overall poorer team, it might be a crash back to reality this season. The Cyclones are only favored by my system in two games, NIU and against Kansas (surprisingly). But several games are close so the cumulative projection grants them four wins—still a letdown from last season, but not as bad as 2-10.
First the Cyclones host a very improved Northern Illinois team, then it's on to Iowa City where the Cyclones always play hard but will likely lose. The new "neutral field" series with Kansas State continues and the Wildcats have a slight edge. Then Northern Iowa, who nearly beat the Hawkeyes last season, comes to Ames. More about that game below.
Utah also comes to town, and the Big Twelve season has its share of trouble like Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, and a revenge-minded Nebraska.
The key to ISU's season comes early. They could quite easily emerge from September 3-1 and that would set the tone for the rest of the year. Though the 'Clones will be without David Sims for Northern Illinois, the Huskies should be missing some key defensive players which gives ISU the edge. Kansas State could lose on a neutral field. And certainly Iowa State can (and should) beat Northern Iowa; the Panthers' rating is a holdover from last year, and since then they've lost most of their offense including the entire O-line. Utah and Colorado are other win possibilities.
I'm guessing that Iowa State will beat UNI pretty easily, split the games with the Kansas teams, then beat one or two of Northern Illinois, Utah, and Colorado. That puts them at 3-9, maybe 4-8. They'd need all the luck in the world—or just a team that slightly exceeds my lowered expectations—to repeat with a bowl berth.
| 79. Arizona State Sun Devils (Pac-10 #9) polls: USA/Coaches #42 |
2009 Results: Record: 4-8 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #59 Success: #78 Overall: #60
ASU will again sub-par in a strong Pac-10.
Offense (3 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #94 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #117
Heavy losses lead to a potentially impotent offense in 2010.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #71 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #112
The problem with ASU's passing attack this year isn't at quarterback. True, they lose last year's starter Danny Sullivan. But he passed for fewer than 2,000 yards, completed only 54%, and had 9 interceptions to go with just 10 TDs. Backup Samson Szakacsy completed 64% and had a 4:1 ratio, and with other backup Brock Osweiler played in 11 games combined. Also, Steven Threet transfers in from Michigan where he started for the Wolverine in 2008. He really wasn't fantastic there, but the point is there is quite a bit of experience at quarterback despite the loss of the starter. The problem starts in the receiving corps, where the Sun Devils lose their two top guys, Kyle Williams and Chris McGaha who combined for 1,488 yards and 12 TDs. Kerry Taylor and Gerell Robinson (537 yards, 0 TDs) are back and Aaron Pflugrad comes in from Oregon (168 yards there). But then there's the offensive line, which yielded a respectable 27 sacks in 2009 but loses all but one starter. With middling quality at quarterback, fewer targets, and a potentially porous O-line the ASU passing game is projected to flounder in 2010. This doesn't take into account the plan to have the offense wide open and passing all the time, which should lead to bigger numbers. But regardless of offensive emphasis, the quality and efficiency of the passing game probably won't be impressive.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #86 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #113
The rushing game doesn't look much better for the Devils. Four of the five top gainers are gone including top back Dmitri Nance (795 yards); #2 Cameron Marshall (280) is back and will start as a sophomore. The offensive line won't give him much support this season, as they lost Shawn Lauvao to the NFL, Thomas Alteiri and Tom Njunge to graduation, Jon Hargis to a spring ACL tear, and probable starter Zach Schlink and backup Matt Hustad to retirement both owing to knee injuries. Garth Gerhart is back and Hargis' rehab is going faster than expected so he should be in for the last 4-6 games, but on the whole the problems with the offensive line will only be worse this year. Combine that with a move to a shotgun passing system and rushing production will fall.
Defense (4 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #24 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #38
The defense will still be strong but not top 25 quality.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #11 Adj. Pass Def: #38 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #28 Sacks: #45
The Sun Devils had a great rushing defense in '09 and this year it could be among the best in the nation. Three starters return to the defensive line: Lawrence Guy, Saia Falahola, and James Brooks who combined for 12 sacks. At linebacker they lose #1 tackler Mike Nixon and #3 Travis Goethel but #2 Vontaze Burfict is back. ASU's pass defense was also good, nearly top 25, but it will take a hit this season as they lose starters Pierre Singfield, Jarrell Holman, Ryan McFoy, and Terrell Carr, their #4, 5, 6, and 8 tacklers who combined for 18 pass breakups and 6 interceptions. The only good news is the return of Omar Bolden from medical redshirt last year. With five of their top six tacklers gone from last year the defense will suffer, but the excellent defensive line will keep things under control.
Kicking Game: Excellent kicker Thomas Weber was injured last season and hit just 8 of 13 field goals, while Trevor Hankins recorded a great 44.2 yard average per punt. Both should be full strength this year and are among the brighter spots on the team this season.
Return Game: Receiver Jamal Miles averaged a fair 19.1 yards per kickoff return in 2009, and he'll also handle punt returns this year replacing Kyle Williams who averaged a solid 10.0.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #23
Dennis Erickson is back on the hot seat a mere two years after a 10-3 season thanks to back-to-back losing years. While this season might not alleviate that, this season's top 25 recruiting class is something he can point to for the future. Three California recruits—RB Deantre Lewis, WR George Bell, and offensive tackle Brice Schwab—are consensus blue chips. The class only ranks in the middle of the Pac-10 since everyone recruited well this season. And if this year goes poorly Erickson might not be around to see the group develop.
2009 Recap Two wins over I-AA foes didn't prepare ASU for the real world. Though they played Georgia close, 20-17 on the road, and beat both Washington squads to stand 4-2 it was all downhill from there. They fell to Stanford 33-14 but played Cal (23-21) and USC (14-9) surprisingly close before losing to Oregon and UCLA. They lost to rival Arizona at home, 20-17 for a 4-8 year.
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Arizona State 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/4 | Sat | vs. | Portland State | 82% | W | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | vs. | Northern Arizona | 64% | W | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | @ | Wisconsin | 23% | L | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | vs. | *Oregon | 24% | L | |||
| 10/2 | Sat | @ | *Oregon State | 32% | L | |||
| 10/9 | Sat | @ | *Washington | 29% | L | |||
| 10/23 | Sat | @ | *California | 35% | L | |||
| 10/30 | Sat | vs. | *Washington State | 67% | W | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | @ | *Southern Cal | 36% | L | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | vs. | *Stanford | 34% | L | |||
| 11/26 | Fri | vs. | *UCLA | 43% | L | |||
| 12/2 | Thu | @ | *Arizona | 36% | L | |||
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Projection Straight up: 3-9 Cumulative: 5-7
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2010 Outlook Once again, ASU plays two I-AA teams to kick off the season. That will get them two guaranteed wins but it also effectively prevents them from becoming bowl-eligible.
It might not really matter, as the only other sure win on the schedule is Washington State. The Pac-10 is very good this year and ASU is one of the few odd men out. Other than UCLA at home in late November they aren't likely to have much of a shot at winning another conference game.
But upsets happen, and the cumulative projection gives ASU five wins. It's hard to see exactly where the fifth win comes from. Probably not in the early murderous stretch of Wisconsin, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, and Cal. Later on, when they'll probably have Hargis back on the O-line, they face USC, Stanford, UCLA, and Arizona, and they could conceivably win two of the three. But getting 6 wins is even more of a stretch, and they need seven to reach a bowl game. I'm guessing that they'll repeat at 4-8, and that the defense will get them most of their wins this season.
| 80. Utah State Aggies (WAC #6) |
2009 Results: Record: 4-8 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #92 Success: #101 Overall: #92
Utah State makes a run at bowl eligibility in 2010.
Offense (5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #70 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #65
The loss of two key players keeps the Aggies' offense at a virtual standstill.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #39 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #33
The good news for Utah State is that Diondre Borel returns at quarterback. Borel threw for 2,885 yards last season with an impressive 17 to 4 TD to interception ratio. The bad news is that leading receiver Stanley Morrison is gone. Morrison had 616 receiving yards and tossed 2 TD passes himself, but needed foot surgery in the offseason. Worse, RB Robert Turbin was the #2 pass catcher and is out as well, leaving Eric Moats (400 yards) the only one back of the top six. But there are some highly touted new faces, too. Borel accomplished all he did last season with unreliable protection that ranked #110 giving up 35 sacks; four starters back on the line should give him ample time (if not ample time, at least *more* time) to find the new receivers who must step forward.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #34 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #45
Robert Turbin rushed for 1,296 yards and 13 TDs (a 6.3 yd. average) but tore his ACL in the spring and will probably get a medical redshirt. Without him, QB Borel is the leading rusher back with 498 yards and 6 TDs (even after subtracting a full 284 yards of sacks). Michael Smith (also a 6.3 yd. average) and Derrvin Speight combined for 500 yards and will have to step up. It's too bad Turbin was hurt as he would have excelled behind the more experienced O-line, where Brennan McFadden departs but Spencer Johnson and Tariq Polley (both seniors) are back along with juniors Philip Gapelu and Robert Hill. Backups Ty Rogers and Funaki Asisi combined to start all of 2008. So last year's weak offensive line is a lot stronger, but without their main guy production will slide.
Defense (8 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #102 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #82
Expect better results from the Aggie defense in 2010.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #106 Adj. Pass Def: #94 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #104 Sacks: #111
The Aggie defensive line returns three senior starters in Sean Enesi, Daniel Gurrola, and Devin Johnson, while their top player Junior Keiaho joins the linebacker corps. Joining him there are returning starters Bobby Wagner (#1 tackler w/115) and Kyle Gallagher giving the front seven six returning starters. The secondary loses James Brindley (#2 tackler) and Kejon Murphy but has seniors Rajric Coleman and Chris Randle back. Five of the top six tacklers are back and the stronger front seven should help out with the dismal rushing defense and pass rush.
Kicking Game: Punter Peter Caldwell (42.2 average) returns but kicker Chris Ulinski (13 of 21 FG) must be replaced, either by Caldwell or hotshot freshman Nick Diaz.
Return Game: Michael Smith will take over punt return duties from Morrison (8.0 average) while Kerwynn Williams is back after averaging a strong 25.0 yards per kickoff return.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #95
Gary Anderson went 4-8 in his first season as the Aggie coach but that was already the most wins they've had in a season since 2002. The 2010 recruiting class is about 6th in the WAC and slightly better perhaps than last year's coaching transition class.
2009 Recap Utah State started the year 1-5 due to playing Utah, Texas A&M, BYU, and Nevada, but that still doesn't excuse the loss to New Mexico State. In addition to Southern Utah they eventually beat Louisiana Tech, San Jose State, and Idaho (in a 52-49 shootout).
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Utah State 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/4 | Sat | @ | Oklahoma | 15% | L | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | vs. | Idaho State | 87% | W | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | vs. | *Fresno State | 47% | L | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | @ | San Diego State | 52% | W | |||
| 10/1 | Fri | vs. | Brigham Young | 43% | L | |||
| 10/9 | Sat | @ | *Louisiana Tech | 42% | L | |||
| 10/23 | Sat | vs. | *Hawaii | 61% | W | |||
| 10/30 | Sat | @ | *Nevada | 41% | L | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | vs. | *New Mexico State | 82% | W | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | @ | *San Jose State | 72% | W | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | vs. | *Idaho | 47% | L | |||
| 12/4 | Sat | @ | *Boise State | 12% | L | |||
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Projection Straight up: 5-7 Cumulative: 6-6
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2010 Outlook How close will the Aggies get to bowl eligibility? For once, going 6-6 is not out of reach for this team.
Four wins are almost guaranteed with Idaho State, New Mexico State, and San Jose State being easy victories and Hawaii at home not far behind. San Diego State is a crucial game early on.
Home games against Fresno State and Idaho are important, too. BYU, Louisiana Tech and Nevada are a bit more of a stretch, while bookended games against Oklahoma and Boise State are the only ones the Aggies can be completely counted out of.
The cumulative projection calls for a 6-6 season, and it's going to be close between that and 5-7. The early games will give an indication: If the Aggies start off 3-1, it's almost a certainty they'll be bowl eligible. Start 1-3 and the odds go way down, though there is still hope. It's too bad that Turbin and Morrison couldn't have amped up the offense along with the defense; with those two back the bowl question wouldn't be "if", but "where." Instead, Aggie fans will have to sweat it out all year in what should be a very entertaining season.
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