The SportsRatings 2010 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams. These rankings predict how good the teams will be in 2009 before taking schedule into account, then the preview explores how well they should do given their schedule.
Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team. Two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win (straight up), and also an aggregate projection that allows for the uncertainty across a season (cumulative). The expectation for the team's season lies somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.
This installment covers teams from #71 to #75. To see the full list, click here.
| 71. Syracuse Orange (Big East #7) |
2009 Results: Record: 4-8 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #84 Success: #69 Overall: #84
A dramatic improvement on defense fuels the Orange's rise this season.
Offense (4 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #91 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #93
The running game will continue to carry Syracuse on offense.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #83 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #109
The Greg Paulus experiment last year was a limited success. Like anyone who is the nation's top quarterback out of high school, he showed gret accuracy, completing 68% of his passes for 2,024 yards and 13 TDs. But like any athlete who takes four years off, the timing wasn't completely there and he threw 14 interceptions. Backup Ryan Nassib (only 53%, but a 3:1 TD:int ratio) will take over this season without top receiver Mike Williams (746 yards, 6 TDs in half a season) but Marcus Sales and Abe Lemon (619 yards 4 TDs combined) are back along with three of the next four. O-line protection could be an issue as the Orange gave up 27 sacks in '09. Nassib will throw fewer interceptions than Paulus but he won't match his completion rate and production will be down.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #65 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #64
Delone Carter topped 1,000 yards in 2009 but there was some concern he wouldn't be back due to a snowball fight. Fortunately for Syracuse, he returns as does backup Antwon Bailey (312) although #3 Averin Collier (just 82 yards) is out due to academics and #5 Mike Jones (61) left the team. The vast majority of production is back and having mobile Nassib at QB will probably generate another 150+ yards on the ground. But the offensive line will likely be weaker, limiting progress. Jim McKenzie and Tucker Baumback (started just half-time in '09) are gone along with 3/4-time starters Jonathan Meldrim and Nick Speller, while senior Ryan Bartholomew returns with half-time starters Adam Rosner and Josh White. Added up it's like losing three starters with two returning, and the Orange O-line wasn't the best last season. They'll do well enough to maintain last year's production.
Defense (9 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #76 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #28
Syracuse's defense goes from a relative liability to a strength.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #14 Adj. Pass Def: #62 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #84 Sacks: #5
One thing the Orange have going for them is a very strong rushing defense and that shouldn't change this year as three starters return to the front four as Chandler Jones (8.5 tackles for loss) rejoins with Mikhail Marinovich and Andrew Lewis. The Orange D also finished #5 (when adjusted for opposition) in sacks, racking up 35, most of them coming from the linebacking corps in their case. Doug Hogue (9.5 sacks) and Derrell Smith (6.5 sacks, #1 tackler), #1 and #2 on the team in sacks, return though E. J. Carter (2 sacks) was kicked off the team. Compared to the rushing defense, Syracuse's pass defense was a glaring weakness and luckily the secondary is loaded in '10. Mike Holmes (#2 tackler, 3 interceptions) leads the way with fellow seniors Max Suter and DaMon Merkerson, while half-time starters Kevyn Scott and Shamarko Thomas add depth with Phillip Thomas (part-time starter but the team's #7 tackler.) Thus the Orange's main weakness nearly becomes a strength, while their strengths remain strong. This is one of the most improved defenses in the nation and could approach top 25 quality depending on injuries.
Kicking Game: The Orange are set at punter and placekicker with Rob Long (43.8 average) and Ryan Lichtenstein (13 of 17 FG) back this year.
Return Game: Mike Jones returned kickoffs at a 24.1 yard clip last season and Donte Davis averaged 6.9 yards per punt return. Both are gone, and while safety Holmes moves in for punts, tailback Collier was listed as primary kickoff returner but as previously noted he is ineligible.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #47
Doug Marrone's second recruiting class is light years ahead of his first in the transition year following Greg Robinson, where there were also dozens of defections among players Robinson had brought in. The net effect was that Syracuse was down to 50 scholarship players at one point. But the latest class ranks 4th in the Big East with nearly a dozen higher-quality recruits in the large group.
2009 Recap The Orange only finished 2009 with one more win than they had in '08, but it felt like a big step forward. Part of it was the fact that they stood 3-3 at the mid-point of the season, with wins over Northwestern and Akron, and an overtime loss to Minnesota (23-20 OT). Penn State only beat the Orange 28-7, a score than undefeated Cincinnati repeated. They nearly beat Louisville on the road, falling 10-9. They'd defeated the Cardinals twice in a row before that, but the spread was telling; instead of the 37 points from two years ago, Louisville was just a touchdown favorite. The next week they blasted Rutgers 31-13 for their most dominant performance in years, and scored 31 again in a loss to UConn for their highest 2-game total in Big East play since 2004.
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Syracuse 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/4 | Sat | @ | Akron | 63% | W | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | @ | Washington | 31% | L | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | vs. | Maine | 68% | W | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | vs. | Colgate | 76% | W | |||
| 10/9 | Sat | @ | *South Florida | 41% | L | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | vs. | *Pittsburgh | 38% | L | |||
| 10/23 | Sat | @ | *West Virginia | 33% | L | |||
| 10/30 | Sat | @ | *Cincinnati | 35% | L | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | vs. | *Louisville | 63% | W | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | @ | *Rutgers | 42% | L | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | vs. | *Connecticut | 42% | L | |||
| 11/27 | Sat | vs. | Boston College | 41% | L | |||
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Projection Straight up: 4-8 Cumulative: 6-6
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2010 Outlook Syracuse should start the year 3-1 but after that it looks like another long, disappointing Big East campaign for the Orange, who will be heavily favorites in four games and pretty big underdogs in the other eight.
Syracuse plays two I-AA teams, Maine and Colgate, and neither are particularly good. They should also win the opener at Akron, and almost undoubtedly will lose at Washington.
From there it's a challenge to find a win other than Louisville, who they've beaten two of the last three contest. Syracuse could be favored at home this time. Preceding that game they face USF, Pitt, West Virginia, and Cincinnati, all of whom are still a lot better than Syracuse.
The final three games are all winnable but are probably not going to be wins. They are close enough in all these contests so that the cumulative projection gives them six wins. Though their defense will keep them in striking distance in almost every game I'd be surprised by anything more than 5-7. Not that it matters if they reach six, however, as they need to go 7-5 to reach a bowl game. For that to happen the offense as well as the defense would have to make significant gains.
| 72. Northwestern Wildcats (Big Ten #8) Polls: USA/Coaches #47 |
2009 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Lost to Auburn 38-35 OT (Outback) Poll finish: USA #41
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #74 Success: #28 Overall: #67
Northwestern treads water this year but that's fine as they should get to another bowl game.
Offense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #80 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #84
Getting a new quarterback up to speed is job one for the Wildcats' offense.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #9 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #38
Northwestern's pass-oriented offense behind Mike Kafka was one of the nation's most potent, and Kafka had nearly 3,500 passing yards with 16 TDs. Dan Persa takes over and will be missing the top two receivers from last year, Andrew Brewer and Zeke Markshausen, a combined 1,783-yard loss. Five others who had over 100 yards are back, however, including tight end Drake Dunsmore (523) and WR Sidney Stewart (470). The offensive line is stocked and should afford Persa better protection than they did Kafka (32 sacks). Overall the passing game will still be good; no longer top ten but how much it falls depends on Persa and the receivers stepping up.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #100 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #85
There wasn't a lot of rushing going on in Northwestern's offense, in fact QB Kafka was probably the best running back on the team. He finished second with 295 yards and led all with 8 TD runs. Take away his sack losses and he'd have over 500 rushing yards. The leading true RB was Arby Fields with 302 (3.7 average) while three others had over 200 (with none averaging 4 yards per carry). Persa showed he could run, too, by netting 167 yards in limited play. The offensive line loses just two half-time starters, Kurt Mattes and Desmond Taylor. Ben Burkett, Doug Bartles, and Al Netter are back along with half-time starters Neal Deiters and Keegan Grant, essentially giving the Wildcats four returning starters. With a more experienced line, all their top rushers returning, and Persa able to make up for Kafka's ground production, the little-used Northwestern rushing attack should make a sizeable gain.
Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #64 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #50
All three linebackers return to the fold for the Wildcats.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #53 Adj. Pass Def: #58 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #59 Sacks: #47
Northwestern's defense wasn't great by Big Ten standards, but it was above average on an FBS level against the run, the pass, and in term of pass rush. Vince Brown (5 sacks) helped with the latter, and he's joined by Corbin Bryant again on the defensive line. At linebacker the Wildcats are loaded, with Quentin Davie (#1 tackler, 5 sacks), Nate Williams (#2 tackler), and Ben Johnson all back. Jordan Mabin returns to the secondary but they lose Sherrick McManis (5 interceptions) Brad Phillips (#3 tackler), and Brendan Smith. While the pass defense is likely to suffer, the overall defense will be stronger.
Kicking Game: Stefan Demos hit 18 of 25 field goals last year and if not for a terrible bowl game against Auburn he would have had an even higher percentage. He was poor at punting the ball, however, with a dismal 35.0 average. Demos is planning to forego punting this season to focus on kicking, so freshman Brandon Williams may take over the punting chores.
Return Game: Stephen Simmons was easily Northwestern's best kickoff return man, averaging 25.3 yards per attempt. He's back, and Hunter Bates is slated to take over punt return chores from departing safety Brendan Smith (6.6 average).
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #77
Pat Fitzgerald has done a great job at Northwestern. Despite consistently having below-par recruiting in the Big Ten (this year's class ranks at the bottom of the conference) he has kept them competing and winning, with back-to-back bowl seasons. And after decades of lowered expectations for the football team there's no urgency to win the league or compete for a national title. There are no true blue chips again in this year's class, but 10-12 higher-potential players to work with.
2009 Recap Northwestern has discovered the secret of bowl eligibility if you're the traditional cellar team in a BCS conference: schedule easy non-conference games. The Wildcats lined up I-AA Towson, Eastern Michigan (ended 0-12), Big East laggard Syracuse, and MAC's Miami of Ohio. They beat Towson easily and struggled with Eastern Michigan before actually losing to Syracuse. They didn't look like a bowl team at that point. They did beat Miami, and in the Big Ten they beat Purdue and Indiana while losing to Minnesota, Michigan State, and Penn State. At 4-4 they traveled to undefeated Iowa and left with a huge 17-10 upset. They toppled Illinois and Wisconsin to finish the regular season 8-4 before losing a crazy game to Auburn in the Outback Bowl, failing again in their quest to win their first bowl game since 1948.
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Northwestern 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/4 | Sat | @ | Vanderbilt | 53% | W | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | vs. | Illinois State | 72% | W | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | @ | Rice | 63% | W | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | vs. | Central Michigan | 53% | W | |||
| 10/2 | Sat | @ | *Minnesota | 45% | L | |||
| 10/9 | Sat | vs. | *Purdue | 56% | W | |||
| 10/23 | Sat | vs. | *Michigan State | 45% | L | |||
| 10/30 | Sat | @ | *Indiana | 55% | W | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | @ | *Penn State | 33% | L | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | vs. | *Iowa | 39% | L | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | vs. | *Illinois | 56% | W | |||
| 11/27 | Sat | @ | *Wisconsin | 24% | L | |||
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Projection Straight up: 7-5 Cumulative: 6-6
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2010 Outlook The Wildcats should get another shot at a bowl game in the 2010 season. While there is only one "guaranteed" win—Illinois State—on the schedule, there are only two near-certain losses, too, meaning the 'Cats could go anywhere from 1-11 to 10-2.
But the majority of the closer games lean their way, to the tune of a 7-5 finish. Home games vs. Central Michigan, Purdue, and Illinois look like wins along with road games vs. Vanderbilt, Rice, and Indiana. Games that narrowly go against them are Minnesota on the road and Michigan State at home. They probably can't count on upsetting Iowa yet again.
By this plan Northwestern finishes 3-5 in the Big Ten, once again relying on non-conference wins. But the non-conference slate is a bit tougher this year than last, and with so many "close" games the cumulative projection calls for a 6-6 season. I lean toward the 7-5 finish, but either way the Wildcats have another bowl opportunity, which would be the first time in school history they've been to a bowl game three straight years.
| 73. North Carolina State Wolfpack (ACC #12; Atlantic #6) |
2009 Results: Record: 5-7 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #71 Success: #60 Overall: #72
Mired in mediocrity recently, the Wolfpack won't escape it this season.
Offense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #34 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #41
Russell Wilson leads the air attack to higher heights while the rushing game fades.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #20 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #14
Quarterback Russell Wilson had a heckuva season, topping 3,000 passing yards and throwing a gaudy 31 touchdown passes. His 11 interceptions are a reasonable total for that many touchdowns, but he had just one last year, and strung between the two seasons he threw an NCAA-record 379 passes without a pick. Mike Glennon is a capable backup. At receiver the top four are back, including Owen Spencer (765 yards), Jarvis Williams (11 TDs) and tight end George Bryan. The only knock on NC State's passing game is the offensive line, which allowed 32 sacks last season (#91) and loses several starters. But with Wilson and his main receivers back the Wolfpack air attack will only get better.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #89 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #106
Running the ball was not the focus of the Wolfpack offense, but Toney Baker still managed to average 4.8 yards per carry en route to 773 yards on the ground. He departs along with #2 back Jamelle Eugene (309 yards) leaving QB Wilson the top rusher back with 260 yards net (481 gross) and 4 TDs. Curtis Underwood, who rushed for 116 yards two years ago, is slated to start this season. If you're underwhelmed by that, consider also that the offensive line takes a big step back this year, losing three 2-year starters: Julian Williams, Jerail McCuller, and Ted Larsen; as well as half-time starter Andy Barbee. Returning are senior Jake Vermiglio and sophomore R.J. Mattes. North Carolina State's already-tepid rushing game may go further down the drain this fall.
Defense (4 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #97 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #105
Heavy losses on the defensive line and secondary outweight a rejuvinated LB corps.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #77 Adj. Pass Def: #86 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #93 Sacks: #79
The Wolfpack have had troubles with rushing defense and those troubles are likely to continue as the defensive line is depleted. All four starters from last season are gone including Willie Young who had 8 sacks, 6 tackles for loss, and 7 pass breakups. There is much better news at linebacker where two starters, Dwayne Maddox and Audie Cole (#1 tacker) are back along with '08 starter Nate Irving. The secondary struggled last season and it's a mixed bag. Brandan Bishop and C.J. Wilson return but they lose starter Clem Johnson (#2 tackler) as well as half-time starters DeAndre Morgan and Koyal George, while knee injuries have taken out likely starting cornerback Rashard Smith (out for the year) and backup Jarvis Byrd (out until November). Other than the linebacking corps there's not much to like about this defense as five of the top six tacklers from last year are gone.
Kicking Game: Punter Jeff Ruiz (37.9 average, 34.7 net) returns*, as does placekicker Josh Czajkowski (10 of 12 FG). *Ruiz originally did not return, as he was transferring at the head coach's urging. But new punter Chris Ward was suspended in the spring and Ruiz came back to the team, despite essentially being shunned and made an outcast just months before. What a guy!
Return Game: Receiver T.J. Graham had just one TD catch in '09, but he equaled that as a kickoff returner and averaged an excellent 25 yards per return. He also handled punts to the tune of 10.4 yards per attempt. He's back for what should be another excellent year.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #48
This year's recruiting class ranks at the median of ACC teams, not quite as good as last year's class. Coach Tom O'Brien landed a super blue-chip in Robert Crisp, one of the top offensive line prospects in the country. Running back Anthony Creecy is a blue chip prospect at running back and could help out immediately in that area. Recruits like these should help O'Brien pull N.C. State out of the mire of mediocrity they've been stuck in for several years. That is, if he's around long enough to see that happen, as North Carolina State just got a new athletic director, never a good sign for a struggling head coach.
2009 Recap Another year, another not-quite-winning-season. An achingly dull 7-3 loss to South Carolina kicked off the '09 campaign, and two wins over I-AA creampuffs didn't convince anyone. But the Wolfpack pulled off a major upset, beating Pitt 38-31, a win that grew in import throughout the season. Unfortunately the Wolfpack didn't grow with it, losing six of their next seven conference games, beating only lowly Maryland. Treating it as their bowl game, they got another major upset, beating North Carolina 28-27 to end the season.
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NC State 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/4 | Sat | vs. | Western Carolina | 81% | W | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | @ | Central Florida | 43% | L | |||
| 9/16 | Thu | vs. | Cincinnati | 40% | L | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | @ | *Georgia Tech | 27% | L | |||
| 10/2 | Sat | vs. | *Virginia Tech | 24% | L | |||
| 10/9 | Sat | vs. | *Boston College | 41% | L | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | @ | East Carolina | 56% | W | |||
| 10/28 | Thu | vs. | *Florida State | 33% | L | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | @ | *Clemson | 29% | L | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | vs. | *Wake Forest | 50% | W | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | @ | *North Carolina | 24% | L | |||
| 11/27 | Sat | @ | *Maryland | 45% | L | |||
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Projection Straight up: 3-9 Cumulative: 5-7
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2010 Outlook The bad news for NC State fans is that it looks like another middling, not-quite-winning season for the Wolfpack—at best.
Aside from a victory over Western Carolina, a probably win over East Carolina, and a tossup against Wake Forest, N.C. State has few opportunities for celebration. With the odds accumulated the Wolfpack should again be 5-7, for third time in four years.
That's assuming they actually get a few upsets rather than lose the close games on their slate. If that happens it could be a disastrous year akin to Maryland's last year.
But Maryland, and Central Florida, maybe even Cincinnati or Boston College, offer chances to get that 4 and 5th win. With the designated wins so precarious, though, I don't see a way to bowl eligibility.
In fact, I'm pretty uncertain about the Pack getting to 5-7. I think 3-9 looks more likely, or 4-8, which would mean they essentially split the six closest games while retaining the opener as a "gimme." Either way, not a break in the right direction and Tom O'Brien's job may be on the line.
| 74. Kansas State Wildcats (Big Twelve #10; North #4) |
2009 Results: Record: 6-6 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #61 Success: #73 Overall: #62
Year two of the second coming of Bill Snyder in Manhattan.
Offense (5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #68 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #72
The Wildcat offense will be largely unchanged, that is, still sluggish.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #94 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #99
Carson Coffman is set to reclaim the starting QB job after losing it a month into last season to Grant Gregory. Gregory ended with 1,096 yards and 4 TDs to Coffman's 860 yards and 2 TDs. Both had 4 interceptions. But those comparisons are moot since Gregory is gone. Unfortunately for Coffman, also gone are four out of the top five receivers, including top duo Brandon Banks and Attrail Snipes who combined for 1,129 yards. Running back Daniel Thomas is the top returning receiver with 257 yards. Aubrey Quarless (407 yds. in '08) returns from a redshirt year, while transfers Chris Harper (Oregon) and Brodrick Smith (Minnesota) become eligible. They combined for 172 yards at their respective schools in '08. The offensive line should provide fairly solid pass protection this year, too, keeping the decline to a minimum.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #36 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #37
The Wildcats had a pretty strong running game last year led by Daniel Thomas who had 1,265 yards and 11 touchdowns. He's back but key backup Keithen Valentine (357 yards, 6.5 average) is gone along with QB Gregory's solid 308 yard contribution, which Coffman (64 yd. net, 1.2 average) is unlikely to match. The offensive line should pave the way for Thomas even better than last year as four starters return. Seniors Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, and Zach Kendall join junior Clyde Aufner as only Nick Stringer departs. There are experienced backups on the line too, such as Trevor Viers who started half-time in 2007. Like last year Thomas will have to do the bulk of the work himself unless another RB steps up, but he could have a great season and surpass his totals from last year as K-State's rushing totals increase slightly despite the dip in the ranking.
Defense (5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #53 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #59
A mixed bag at D with plenty of losses but a stronger secondary.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #45 Adj. Pass Def: #54 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #79 Sacks: #80
The K-State defensive line basically returns two half-time starters, Antonio Felder and Raphael Guidry, though '08 starter Brandon Howard returns from a redshirt year to try to maintain the team's decent rushing defense. The big loss is Jeffrey Fitzgerald, who had 7 of the team's 20 sacks. At linebacker they lose Ulla Pomele and John Houlik but K-State often employs a 4-2-5 and Troy Butler returns to the hybrid safety/linebacker slot. The rest of the secondary is in good shape; although they lose #2 tackler Joshua Moore (11 pass breakups) they have #1 tackler Emmanuel Lamur, Tysyn Hartman (5 interceptions), and Stephen Harrison (11 pass breakups) back. The pass defense may improve but the already weak pass rush may be weaker.
Kicking Game: Punter Ryan Doerr (41.2 average) is back along with kicker Josh Cherry (12 of 20 field goals).
Return Game: Leading receiver Brandon Banks was also K-State's key return man. Though he averaged a typical 9.1 yards per punt return on kickoffs he was a monster, averaging 28.9 yards per attempt and taking four kickoffs back all the way. Losing him means a real loss in terms of field position and perhaps a point or two of scoring per game, if you assume the fielding unit can manage one or two scores this season. Attempting to fill his shoes will be aforementioned transfer Brodrick Smith and RB William Powell, and perhaps free safety Hartman, who averaged 13.1 yards on 8 punt returns last season.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #112
70-year-old Bill Snyder is trying to return K-State to its glory days, back when the coach was Bill Snyder. He's doing much of the same kind of thing he did the first time around, bringing in a lot of junior college players, but the competition for them has increased lately. This year's recruiting class is small and several players have left or grayshirted, which for technically (and for my ranking purposes) moves them into next year's class. Hence, KSU has a very small class and the weakest in the Big Twelve. Snyder's top recruit this year is a JUCO of course: Adam Davis, a near-blue chip defensive end from closeby Hutchinson, Kansas.
2009 Recap Kansas State has lately seemed a team without an identity, mostly because no one can tell how they're going to play week to week. The 2009 season started off inauspiciously with a 21-17 escape against I-AA Massachusetts, followed by a disastrous 17-15 loss to Louisiana-Lafayette of the Sun Belt. A loss at UCLA and Snyder's return record stood at 1-2 and a few more mistakes away from 0-3. Another win over an FCS team didn't fool anyone, nor did beating Iowa State by a point, 24-23. When they lost to Texas Tech 66-14, the squad was exposed. BUT, the very next week they destroyed Texas A&M 62-14, matching the amount of points they'd scored against the four FBS teams they had played *combined*. They won two of their next three by beating Colorado and rival Kansas to stand 6-4, but lost to Missouri and Nebraska to finish 6-6—bowl eligible but for the fact that two wins were over I-AA teams.
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Kansas State 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/4 | Sat | vs. | UCLA | 47% | L | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | vs. | Missouri State | 72% | W | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | N | *Iowa State | 52% | W | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | vs. | Central Florida | 46% | L | |||
| 10/7 | Thu | vs. | *Nebraska | 28% | L | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | @ | *Kansas | 49% | L | |||
| 10/23 | Sat | @ | *Baylor | 44% | L | |||
| 10/30 | Sat | vs. | *Oklahoma State | 52% | W | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | vs. | *Texas | 32% | L | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | @ | *Missouri | 33% | L | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | @ | *Colorado | 44% | L | |||
| 11/27 | Sat | @ | North Texas | 58% | W | |||
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Projection Straight up: 4-8 Cumulative: 6-6
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2010 Outlook It appears to be another tough year for the Wildcats. The schedule is harder—only one FCS team. That does mean that 6-6 will get them to a bowl; but getting to 6-6 is going to be hard.
Missouri State is one early win they can count on, and UCLA, Iowa State, and UCF could all be wins—or none could. Go 4-0 out of the gate, however, and they'll have no problem. But 2-2 is the most likely outcome.
After that the pickins are slim. Kansas on the road and Oklahoma State at home are essentially tossups that they'll likely split. Nebraska, Texas, and Missouri are very likely losses of course.
They'll need to win both the tossups or get an upset somewhere. They finish with North Texas so they'll want to be at least 5-6 going in. By my estimates they'll be 3-8 and then 4-8 by beating North Texas. The cumulative projection barely rounds up to 6-6. I reckon this means they'll finish 5-7, probably losing to Kansas on a last second field goal that hits the upright, once again a game short of qualifying for a bowl game.
| 75. UAB Blazers (C-USA #4; East #3) |
2009 Results: Record: 5-7 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #91 Success: #88 Overall: #91
The offense slips without Joe Webb but the defense makes big gains.
Offense (7 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #78 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #83
Replacing Joe Webb's passing and rushing are both tough jobs.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #106 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #103
Going from a quarterback that threw for just shy of 2,300 yards to one who threw for 39 yards should cause a plummet in your passing production. While sophomore David Isabelle might not match Joe Webb's 21 touchdowns or even his 60% completion rate, his production might not be far off. He'll have top receivers Frantrell Forrest and (tight end) Jeffery Anderson (956 yards, 14 TDs combined) back; in all, four of the top five return, including senior starter Roddell Carter. And he'll have an even better offensive line in front of him than Webb had (24 sacks allowed). All this of course assumes Isabelle gets the job. But whoever does comes into a pretty good situation, and the production drop needn't be severe as the passing game may receive a bit more emphasis than it did before.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #13 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #21
The harder job is replacing Webb's ground production, which was huge: 1,427 yards and 11 touchdowns. Much of that, too, might be Isabelle's job—he was the team's #2 rusher with 288 yards, and he even had a higher average (9.0!) than Webb (6.3). Most of his runs were set plays, as he only attempted 14 passes last season. The top true running back, Rashaud Slaughter, had 250 yards and departs, leaving Justin Brooks and Daniel Borne (combined 399 yards) as the only options along with JUCO Pat Shed who probably won the job in the spring. Whoever carries the ball will be running behind a line that was good last year and will be better with four starters returning. They lose 4-year starting center Jake Seitz which is a really big deal to the team, but Greg Calhoun, Greg Bulls, Matt McCants, and Caleb Thomas are all back, and '08 starter Terrence Edge returns to the fold. And the other talent is so good that only three or four of those guys are expected to start. Running production is still bound to fall without Webb and if they choose a pure passer over Isabelle at QB it could fall a lot farther, but there are enough sound options to keep rushing production at or near a top 25 level.
Defense (7-9 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #99 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #39
A big defensive improvement is in store, meaning the passing defense won't rank dead last anymore.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #68 Adj. Pass Def: #120 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #117 Sacks: #86
UAB's defense is a confusing mess in terms of what constitutes a returning starter; if you count strictly who is back you get seven (roughly). But many started part-time or half-time or moved around but they are back, so it's easier to keep track of who isn't there and by that measure they lose only 2 starters: defensive lineman Anthony Barnes and corner/safety Brandon Carlisle. The defensive line has Tim Davis, David DeCordova, and Elliot Hennigan back, with '07-'08 starters Bryant Turner (6 sacks) and D.J. Reese in the mix. At linebacker Lamanski Ware is the only true returning starter but they didn't lose anyone. Daniel White started about half-time, Keon Harris started part-time, and a bunch of others make up the rest. The secondary is where they really need help as their pass defense was deplorable. Terrell Springs (10 pass breakups) and #1 tackler Hiram Atwater are back with Chase Daniel who has started half-time the last two years. The upshot of all this is that they're really loaded with experience, returning 12 of the top 13 tacklers from last year and should be much, much better in 2010.
Kicking Game: Punter Trey Ragland (42.8 average) and kicker Josh Zahn (14 of 21 FG) are both back.
Return Game: Leading receiver Forrest averaged a solid 21.9 yards on kickoff returns, while #4 receiver Nick Adams takes over punt returns for the departing Jim Mitchell (6.0 average).
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #94
Neil Callaway's UAB squads have had 2 wins, 4 wins, and 5 wins. He's making gains without scoring high-powered recruiting classes, even by C-USA standards. This year's class ranks perhaps ninth when you factor out several players who didn't qualify or are grayshirting. One recruit, Chris Lofton, opted to sign a baseball contract instead. But it looks like running back Pat Shed might be a diamond in the rough for the Blazers.
2009 Recap The Blazers finished 5-7 last year while beating only one winning team (Southern Miss) and losing to just one losing team (Texas A&M, who lost a bowl game and shouldn't count). After starting 2-5 they won three in a row to even their record and give them bowl hopes, but fell to East Carolina on the road and UCF at home.
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UAB 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/4 | Sat | vs. | Florida Atlantic | 61% | W | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | @ | *SMU | 45% | L | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | vs. | Troy | 60% | W | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | @ | Tennessee | 44% | L | |||
| 10/6 | Wed | @ | *Central Florida | 40% | L | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | vs. | *UTEP | 68% | W | |||
| 10/23 | Sat | @ | Mississippi State | 33% | L | |||
| 10/30 | Sat | @ | *Southern Miss | 42% | L | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | vs. | *Marshall | 57% | W | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | vs. | *East Carolina | 61% | W | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | vs. | *Memphis | 68% | W | |||
| 11/27 | Sat | @ | *Rice | 62% | W | |||
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Projection Straight up: 7-5 Cumulative: 6-6
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2010 Outlook This year a bowl appearance is all but guaranteed if they've improved as much on defense as I expect. They have seven games on their schedule that they should win, and a couple more than they could win.
The Blazers host two Sun Belt teams, both of whom they should beat, with a visit to SMU in between. If they go 3-0, things are really looking up.
I won't call for them to beat Tennessee on the road but they may surprise people with their resiliency. The same goes for the Central Florida, Mississippi State, and Southern Miss road games, all of which look like losses.
But they have UTEP in between those and finish at home against Marshall, East Carolina, and Memphis before visiting Rice. If they don't get down on themselves for being 3-5 they should win all four of those and go 7-5. The cumulative projection actually agrees, so how can I argue? Except to say that the SMU games is a tossup. Win that one and at minimum they have insurance against getting upset. As I see it they already have a 1-game cushion for bowl eligibility.
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