The SportsRatings 2010 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams. These rankings predict how good the teams will be in 2009 before taking schedule into account, then the preview explores how well they should do given their schedule.
Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team. Two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win (straight up), and also an aggregate projection that allows for the uncertainty across a season (cumulative). The expectation for the team's season lies somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.
This installment covers teams from #66 to #70. To see the full list, click here.
| 66. Minnesota Golden Gophers (Big Ten #7) |
2009 Results: Record: 6-7 Bowl: Lost to Iowa State 14-13 (Insight Bowl) Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #60 Success: #58 Overall: #59
Few teams this year return so many starters on offense and so few on defense.
Offense (9 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #67 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #36
Yet another offensive scheme is put into place to try to mess up the returning talent.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #48 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #28
Adam Weber has seen a lot of change in the three years he's been the starting quarterback. They ran the spread for the first two, then abandoned that with a new offensive coordinator. Now they have another new offensive coordinator, who is installing a "power running" game. What that will mean for Weber's passing numbers is anybody's guess. Last year his yardage dropped to 2,582 (from 2,761 in '08 and 2,895 in '07), his completion percentage was just 52% (from 62%), he had 13 TD passes (15 in '08, 24 in '07) and 15 interceptions (just 8 in '08). A lot of the problem was due to the offensive line which allowed 41 sacks, 11 more than the previous year and ranking 95th in the country. With all five starters back and a year more experienced, the line should provide much better pass protection for Weber. Unfortunately he loses his two top targets from last year in Eric Decker and Nick Tow-Arnett, who combined for 1,263 yards and 8 TDs. Five others who had more than 10 receptions are back, though, including Da'Jon McKnight, Troy Stoudermire, and Brandon Green who had roughly 300 yards apiece. MarQueis Gray is an X-factor at both wide receiver and at QB in wildcat formation. If the new coordinator work with him instead of against him, Weber should have his best year as a senior.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #92 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #56
Minnesota's rushing attack was rather subdued in 2009, but the new offense is committed to a strong running game. That's easy to say but when your leading rusher (Duane Bennett) has just 376 yards there's nowhere to go but up. They lose the #2 back (Kevin Whaley, 367 yd.) but #3 DeLeon Eskridge is back along with wildcat QB/WR Gray (265 yards). The offensive line was pretty pathetic last season but practice makes perfect...or at least, practice makes less pathetic. Five starters are back for the Gopher O-line, and four are seniors: D.J. Burris, Matt Carufel, Jeff Wills, and Dominic Alford. Junior Chris Bunders returns too, and they get a full-time starter (Ryan Wynn) and a half-time starter (Ryan Orton) back from 2008. The line has got to be much better this season. Depending on how much they run the wildcat, Gray could have significant yardage in his sophomore year, and Weber is a big variable, too: He had 617 yards in 2008, 233 in '09, and -133 last season (141 gross, 274 in sacks); if he can reverse that trend the offense would be better for it. To do so he needs the help of the offensive line and the blessing of O.C. Jeff Horton.
Defense (2 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #52 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #92
The defense is the diametric opposite of the offense and will go from average to poor.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #55 Adj. Pass Def: #60 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #55 Sacks: #60
The front seven is pretty easy: every starter is gone. Cedric McKinley, Garrett Brown, Eric Small, and Barrett Moen are gone from the defensive line, taking with them 7.5 sacks and 13 tackles for loss. And at linebacker they lose #1 tackler Lee Campbell (119 tackles, 10 tackles for loss), #2 Nate Triplett (105), and #4 Simoni Lawrence. Only the secondary returns starters: Kim Royston and Kyle Theret, both senior safeties. Corners Marcus Sherels and Traye Simmons are gone. Royston was injured in the spring and may miss a few early games. Adding insult to injury, the sad tale of Sam Maresh got even sadder as he was declared ineligible for this season. The linebacker was one of the Gophers' highest-rated recruits a few years ago but endured heart surgery and a cancer scare to return to the lineup only to have to leave the team to work on his grades.
Kicking Game: Dan Orseske averaged a great 44.6 yards in 9 punts before he got sick and redshirted, leaving the chores to Blake Haudan, who did nearly as well (42.6). Haudan is gone and Orseske is all better and should pick up where he left off. Kicker Eric Ellestad is back after making 13 of 17 field goals last season.
Return Game: Bryant Allen is back as punt returner (12.2 average on 6 returns) with Troy Stoudermire, who was again fantastic as a kickoff return man (24.6 average). Don't be shocked if Stoudermire takes one to the house in 2010 as it seems he's due.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #49
Tim Brewster had a 1-11 record his first year with the Gophers, and since then he's batted .500. The first year put him on the hot seat, the 2nd took him off, and the third put him half-way back on. He "discovered" Adam Weber then oversaw his decline in production. As a recruiter he's done pretty well; this year's class was 7th in the Big Ten. But that was supposed to be his specialty. Everyone figures the defense will have troubles this year, but with 9 starters back the offense should at least produce at lot of points, whether the team's record is good in the end. This year's best catch is in-state recruit Jimmy Gjere, a blue chip offensive lineman from Brighton.
2009 Recap The Gophers' season looked promising at times last year. Not after they needed overtime to edge Syracuse, and not necessarily when they beat Air Force by a touchdown and Northwestern 35-24. But the intervening loss to California was much less brutal than expected, just 35-21. As it turned out Cal was no national title contender, but after the Gophers nearly beat Wisconsin (31-28) and beat Purdue they were 4-2. Unfortunately they played Penn State and Ohio State next, losing by a combined 58-7, and later lost to Illinois (35-32) and Iowa while beating MSU 42-34 and struggling past South Dakota State 16-13. At 6-6 they returned to the Insight Bowl for the 3rd time in 4 years and predictably were flat and miscues caused a 14-13 loss for a losing season.
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Minnesota 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/2 | Thu | @ | M. Tennessee St. | 47% | L | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | vs. | South Dakota | 74% | W | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | vs. | Southern Cal | 44% | L | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | vs. | Northern Illinois | 56% | W | |||
| 10/2 | Sat | vs. | *Northwestern | 55% | W | |||
| 10/9 | Sat | @ | *Wisconsin | 27% | L | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | @ | *Purdue | 52% | W | |||
| 10/23 | Sat | vs. | *Penn State | 41% | L | |||
| 10/30 | Sat | vs. | *Ohio State | 30% | L | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | @ | *Michigan State | 41% | L | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | @ | *Illinois | 52% | W | |||
| 11/27 | Sat | vs. | *Iowa | 41% | L | |||
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Projection Straight up: 5-7 Cumulative: 6-6
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2010 Outlook The Gophers should play exciting football in 2010. The offense will be more explosive, and the defense will be more porous. Look for high-scoring games when the Gophers come to town.
The opener against Middle Tennessee is a really important game for both teams in determining what kind of season each will have. It's a close one, but the Gophers will probably lose on the road. MTSU will be without Dwight Dasher, but Minnesota will be missing three starters: Kim Royston, Kyle Theret, and Dom Alford.
Four home games follow, and the Gophers could win three of them. People may be surprised if they stay close to USC, but the Trojans may have a down year. We'll see. Either way I don't think they'll be able to win that one, and both Northern Illinois and Northwestern will be challenges.
Purdue also looks like a win, and Illinois barely falls to them, giving them a 5-7 record. Add up the odds and you get a cumulative estimate that barely rounds up to 6-6. The extra win could come in the opener against MTSU. But then they can't slip up against NIU, Northwestern, or Illinois, which is why I think one way or another they'll fall short at 5-7 this year. Do they really want to go to the Insight Bowl again anyway?
| 67. Temple Owls (Mac #2; East #1) Polls: AP #43 USA/Coaches #47 |
2009 Results: Record: 9-4 Bowl: Lost to UCLA 30-21 (EagleBank) Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #69 Success: #50 Overall: #69
Bernard Pierce leads an ever-improving Temple team under Al Golden.
Offense (8 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #55 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #45
An unusual change at quarterback, but consistency at running back is the important thing.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #114 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #114
Quarterback Vaughn Charlton chose to move to tight end this year, not a great loss as he completed just 50% of his passes for 1,390 yards and had more interceptions (11) than touchdowns (10). But 2nd-string QB Chester Stewart isn't a great replacement as he completed only 40% with a 3:3 ratio and 514 yards. For now it looks like Stewart is the starter and he's motivated to prove his nay-sayers wrong. He's not in a bad situation as the top two receivers, Michael Campbell and Joe Jones (806 yards combined) return. Joe Nixon moves to the defense but Dy'Onne Crudup (392 yards in 2007) is back from a redshirt year. The four returning starters on the O-line should reduce the 21 sacks it allowed last year. Plus he's got Charlton, someone who should know the routes pretty well, as a target at tight end. With expectations set low last year Stewart should have no trouble meeting them.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #31 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #27
The engine of the Temple offense is Bernard Pierce who gained 1,361 yards as a freshman and is being touted as a Heisman candidate already. He had 16 touchdowns and will be running behind a much more experienced O-line: 3-year starter Devin Tyler is gone but seniors Colin Madison and Darius Morris join juniors John Palumbo and Steve Caputo on an all-upperclassman line as Derek Dennis (2007 starter) takes the other slot. Pierce should have a fantastic season and should he be hurt Matt Brown (529 yards) is a strong backup. Temple will be a hard team for MAC opponents to stop on the ground.
Defense (7 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #79 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #81
Temple returns a duo that accounted for 20 of their 34 sacks.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #37 Adj. Pass Def: #103 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #74 Sacks: #46
Temple had 34 sacks last year against weak competition, good enough for #46 in the adjusted rankings, and this year they should be just as good if not better as Adrian Robinson (13 sacks) and Muhammad Wilkerson (7) are back on the Owl defensive line. The line loses one starter and another shifts position so the tough Owl rushing defense might drop a notch, but the pass rush will be in full effect again. At linebacker they lose two starters including #1 tackler Alex Joseph but Elijah Joseph is back and Amara Kamara moves in from the D-line. The pass defense was the weakest link but three starters are back in the secondary: Jaiquawn Jarrett (3 interceptions), Kevin Kroboth, and Marquis Liverpool (3 int). More or less the Temple defense should be just as strong in 2010.
Kicking Game: Brandon McManus (17 of 24 field goals) and Jeff Wathne (37.2 punting average w/32.5 net) are both back for the Owls and Wathne is still listed as the starter despite his low numbers.
Return Game: The Temple return team was fantastic last season, returning 2 punts and 2 kickoffs for touchdowns. Both WR Delano Green (11.6 average on punts) and WR-turned-CB James Nixon (29.2 on kickoffs) will do it again this year for the Owls.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #86 #103
Temple once again had one of the best recruiting classes in the Mid-American Conference as Al Golden continues to build the program. 0-11 when he took over, he's had seasons with 1, 4, 5, and 9 wins. He seems to swap player positions a lot more than most coaches but so far it's worked out fine. [Update: the class's ranking dwindled as attrition took hold, with at least six members leaving or not qualifying. It comes and it goes!]
2009 Recap For all of Al's golden touch last year started off with a big disappointment as they lost to Villanova 27-24. The Wildcats ended up winning the FCS championship but still Temple didn't plan on losing to a I-AA team. They lost the next week to Penn State to start 0-2. But then they went on a tear, winning 9 games in a row. The victims were MAC cupcakes for the most part: 0-12 Eastern Michigan, 1-11 Miami of Ohio, 2-10 Ball State—but they did beat Navy 27-24 on the road. They lost at Ohio and therefore didn't play in the MAC title game. In the EagleBank Bowl they led UCLA at the half before falling 30-21.
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Temple 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/4 | Sat | vs. | Villanova | 49% | L | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | vs. | *Central Michigan | 54% | W | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | vs. | Connecticut | 46% | L | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | @ | Penn State | 35% | L | |||
| 10/2 | Sat | @ | Army | 52% | W | |||
| 10/9 | Sat | @ | *Northern Illinois | 47% | L | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | vs. | *Bowling Green | 75% | W | |||
| 10/23 | Sat | @ | *Buffalo | 59% | W | |||
| 10/30 | Sat | vs. | *Akron | 71% | W | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | @ | *Kent St | 52% | W | |||
| 11/16 | Tue | vs. | *Ohio | 61% | W | |||
| 11/23 | Tue | @ | *Miami (Ohio) | 56% | W | |||
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Projection Straight up: 8-4 Cumulative: 7-5
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2010 Outlook Could it happen again? Another opening-day loss to Villanova? The Wildcats are again the top team, pre-season, and the game looks like a tossup again this year. Temple will certainly take the game more seriously and want revenge to boot, so I think they'll win it despite the official edge given here to Villanova.
Other non-MAC foes include UConn, Penn State, and Army, and they should go 1-3 but that's not guaranteed. Between Villanova and Army they should get one win, certainly.
The MAC is a different story. Only Northern Illinois should beat them. That's seven wins, including six in a row at the end, good enough for an 8-4 record. The cumulative projection gives them just seven. I'll give them eight since I think the Villanova game is a win, offsetting any upset they might fall into.
They have the potential to be 10-2 pretty easily, though. And UConn isn't completely out of reach, but let's not get greedy. They should make the MAC title game but they'll probably run into Northern Illinois again. They could win the rematch but I favor the Huskies. Thus the odds of beating last year's nine wins, even after adding in a bowl game, are pretty slim.
| 68. Duke Blue Devils (ACC #11; Coastal #6) |
2009 Results: Record: 5-7 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #65 Success: #77 Overall: #66
The offense might not lose a step but the defense will and Duke will tread water this year.
Offense (8 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #52 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #57
Duke's offense will be largely the same, and if QB Sean Renfree excels it could improve.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #6 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #13
Thaddeus Lewis was the most productive quarterback that nobody heard about in 2009. Probably because he played for Duke, which gets an inverse amount of attention in the sports world as the basketball team. Lewis racked up 3,330 yards with 20 touchdowns. Taking the reigns as Lewis departs will be Sean Renfree, who had good numbers (68%, 4 TDs vs. 2 ints) in limited action at backup QB. He'll walk into a good situation: protected by a line that returns four starters and throwing to a seasoned groups of receivers. The top six are all back, led by Donovan Varner (1,047 yards, 8 TDs), Conner Vernon (746 yds.), and Austin Kelly (625). Starting tight end Brett Huffman is back as well. Renfree is still recovering from an ACL tear last year and all three top receivers suffered hamstring injuries during fall camp, so there might be a rough start but Duke's passing game should be very productive again, just maybe not in the top ten like last season.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #118 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #112
Duke's running game was the polar opposite of their passing game, and it wasn't just because they rarely ran the ball. True, they ranked 117th in number of attempts, but they were #118 in yards per play (adjusted for opponents) and ended #118 on a per-game basis. Their top three backs combined for just 590 yards but all return. Desmond Scott led with 260 yards; Jay Hollingsworth had 399 in 2008; and Patrick Kurunwune had the highest per-carry average of the three at 4.4. The offensive line was certainly to blame and things should be better as four starters return. Jarrod Holt departs while Bryan Morgan, Brian Moore, and Kyle Hill return and the left guard slot is covered by Mitchell Lederman and Brandon Harper. Despite the improvements Duke just isn't going to run the ball a lot so their ranking won't skyrocket, but it should climb out of the cellar.
Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #73 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #90
Six starters return but the D loses its clear leaders in sacks, tackles, and interceptions.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #67 Adj. Pass Def: #85 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #65 Sacks: #101
Last year's defense was pretty average (for the FBS as a whole) in most departments but had a very poor pass rush. It's bad, then, that they lose defensive end Ayanga Okpokowuruk who had a team-leading 6 sacks and defensive tackle Vince Oghobaase who was 2nd with 2.5. Patrick Egboh and Charlie Hatcher (1 sack each) return to the defensive line. At linebacker Damian Thornton and Abraham Kromah return but #1 tackler Vincent Ray departs. The secondary loses #2 tackler Catron Gainey and Leon Wright, who had 5 interceptions. Matt Daniels and Chris Rwabukamba (combined 13 pass breakups) will try to pick up the slack.
Kicking Game: Kicker Will Snyderwine was excellent, connecting on 17 of 20 field goal attempts while Kevin Jones averaged 39.3 yards per punt. Both are back.
Return Game: Receiver Johnny Williams (#4 in yardage last season) returned both kickoffs and punts, averaging a decent 20.6 and 8.3 yards per attempt. Leading RB Desmond Scott was even better on kickoffs (25.1) and both are back this year.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #87
David Cutcliffe has already accomplished a lot at Duke with 4-8 and 5-7 seasons under his belt, as 9 wins is just one shy of the amount the program had from 2000 to 2007 combined. Last year's 5 wins was the most by a Duke team since 1994. While this year's class is poor for the ACC (dead last) it's not the worst in the FBS by any means and supplement's last year's excellent class.
2009 Recap The Blue Devils lost the opener at home to I-AA power Richmond, but regrouped to beat Army. They fell to Kansas and Virginia Tech (only 34-26) but beat another FCS squad, North Carolina Central, to stand at 2-3. Duke then had a three-game winning streak—their first since 1994—beating ACC laggards N.C. State, Maryland, and Virginia. At 5-3 they needed just one more win for bowl eligibility but faced North Carolina, Georgia Tech, and Miami next. They lost all three as expected and met Wake Forest, then 4-7 and on a 5-games losing streak, at home in the final. They kept up most of the game but lost 45-34.
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Duke 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/4 | Sat | vs. | Elon | 56% | W | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | @ | *Wake Forest | 46% | L | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | vs. | Alabama | 24% | L | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | vs. | Army | 60% | W | |||
| 10/2 | Sat | @ | *Maryland | 46% | L | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | vs. | *Miami (Florida) | 30% | L | |||
| 10/23 | Sat | @ | *Virginia Tech | 19% | L | |||
| 10/30 | Sat | @ | Navy | 45% | L | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | vs. | *Virginia | 52% | W | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | vs. | *Boston College | 42% | L | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | @ | *Georgia Tech | 28% | L | |||
| 11/27 | Sat | vs. | *North Carolina | 31% | L | |||
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Projection Straight up: 3-9 Cumulative: 5-7
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2010 Outlook It appears that a bowl game will have to wait yet another year. Only three games on the schedule look like wins and even taking upsets into account they'll only match last season's record of 5-7.
Elon is one of the best FCS teams and is top ten in every pre-season poll, so Duke will have their hands full but should win at home. They should beat Army at home later in the month and have a decent shot at Wake Forest, so it is possible that they could start 3-1. It will be interesting to see how they do against Alabama at home. Or maybe not.
After that the ACC schedule gets into full swing and there isn't much that looks good. Duke should beat Virginia at home but it's no guarantee, while Maryland and Navy on the road should be close losses. They close with Georgia Tech and UNC, so if they want to be bowl eligible they better have it taken care of by mid-November. The only good news this year is that six wins will get them there for sure, as there's only one I-AA team on the slate. The bad news is that even their designated "wins" above are shaky, so even reaching the 5-7 cumulative projection may be elusive. I think Duke will go 4-8 this season, one less win than last year but still matching their best season from 2000-2007. Despite not achieving a winning record again Cutcliffe won't be on the hot seat any time soon.
| 69. Oklahoma State Cowboys (Big Twelve #9; South #6) Polls: AP #42 USA #39 |
2009 Results: Record: 9-4 Bowl: Lost to Mississippi 21-7 (Cotton) Poll finish: AP #30, USA #25
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #36 Success: #30 Overall: #35
The Cowboys lose a slew of starters and take a big slide.
Offense (4 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #53 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #97
The promise of last year's great offense never materialized and the key players are all gone.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #100 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #116
Zac Robinson's senior year didn't go quite as planned. The Cowboys were out of the national title picture early, receiver Dez Bryant was ruled ineligible, and Robinson was hurt later in the year and had just over 2,000 passing yards, down 1,000 from 2009. He also had 12 interceptions to go with 15 touchdowns. Backup Brandon Weeden did pretty well—63%, 4 TDs, 1 int—and gives hope that this year will be okay. And losing Bryant doesn't hurt as bad since he played only a few games (323 yards). Hubert Anyiam finished as the leading receiver with 515, and he's back along with the #4, Justin Blackmon, and two others who had over 100 yards. Even Bo Bowling (200 yards in '08) returns as a walk-on. But the offensive line is rebuilt with four new starters, meaning that last year's great protection—just 12 sacks, #2 in the nation adjusted for opponents—will be a thing of the past. The offense will be even more pass-oriented next year so the rock-bottom ranking projection above is certainly overly pessimistic, in terms of efficiency the passing game will probably fall.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #27 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #87
Another player who didn't live up to expectations last season was Kendall Hunter, who was hobbled all year and finished with just 382 yards compared to 1,555 the year before. Instead it was Keith Toston who topped 1,128 and ran for 11 touchdowns behind last year's great offensive line. Toston is gone and Hunter returns to find the offensive line in shambles; only sophomore Lane Taylor is back from last year's starting lineup. Gone are Russell Okung, the 6th pick in the NFL draft; 3-year starters Andrew Lewis and Brady Bond; and Noah Franklin. Hunter will have to do it by himself as Beau Johnson (304 yards) also departs and QB Robinson's 304 net yards won't be replaced by Wheeden in the new offense which is a Texas Tech style. Hunter could still top 1,000 yards despite all this and new backup Jeremy Smith had 160 yards against Grambling (a game is a game!) but the team's total will be way down.
Defense (3 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #20 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #45
Last year's exceptional defense will drop quite a bit as the top four tacklers depart.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #10 Adj. Pass Def: #27 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #27 Sacks: #33
The Cowboy defensive line returns key player Ugo Chinasa (6.5 sacks) along with Jamie Blatnick, who will probably miss some time at the beginning of the year due to his bar fight law trouble. But their #10 rushing defense will be a thing of the past due to the two starters they lose on the D-line and losing their entire 3-man linebacker unit. Gone are Donald Booker (5 sacks), Patrick Lavine (5 interceptions), and Andre Sexon, the team's top three tacklers. 2008 starter Orie Lemon comes back from medical redshirt to help rebuild the unit. Markell Martin (11 pass breakups) is back in the secondary, with three starters gone including Perrish Cox (15 pass breakups). Backups Victor Johnson (DUI) and Daytawion Lowe (injury) may miss time as well. In all six of the seven top tacklers are gone from the defense and it will be much weaker across the board.
Kicking Game: Punter Quinn Sharp (45.1 average, 36.0 net) is back along with placekicker Dan Bailey (13 of 18 field goals made).
Return Game: Cornerback Cox handled both kickoff and punt returns, averaging 20.9 and 10.4 yards per attempt and returning one punt for a TD. Since he's gone, Justin Gilbert and Josh Cooper will attempt to fill his shoes.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #15
Mike Gundy put together a great recruiting class this season, due probably to a number of factors: the back to back 9-4 seasons; the early promise of the team with Robinson, Bryant, and Hunter; and perhaps even the "I'm a man" tirade which went viral on the internet a few years ago. Whatever the reason the strong class ranks #3 in the Big Twelve and has at least two consensus blue chips in linebacker Shawn Lewis from Texas and running back Joseph Randle from Wichita, Kansas.
2009 Recap It wasn't how it was supposed to be. The Cowboys still finished 9-4, but that was a mild disappointment and there are a lot of "what if"s. What if Dez Bryant hadn't been ruled ineligible? What if Kendall Hunter hadn't gotten hurt? The trouble is, the balloon was deflated early as after beating Georgia 24-10 they lost to Houston at home, 45-35. They still wouldn't have beaten Texas or Oklahoma at full strength, though the final scores would have been a lot closer than 41-14 and 27-0. And they probably would have beaten Mississippi in the bowl game. But the regular season would have looked very similar in the W/L columns.
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Oklahoma St. 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/4 | Sat | vs. | Washington State | 70% | W | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | vs. | Troy | 65% | W | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | vs. | Tulsa | 55% | W | |||
| 9/30 | Thu | vs. | *Texas A&M | 37% | L | |||
| 10/8 | Fri | @ | LA-Lafayette | 62% | W | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | @ | *Texas Tech | 23% | L | |||
| 10/23 | Sat | vs. | *Nebraska | 29% | L | |||
| 10/30 | Sat | @ | *Kansas State | 48% | L | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | vs. | *Baylor | 51% | W | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | @ | *Texas | 27% | L | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | @ | *Kansas | 50% | W | |||
| 11/27 | Sat | vs. | *Oklahoma | 24% | L | |||
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Projection Straight up: 6-6 Cumulative: 5-7
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2010 Outlook No one's expecting another nine-win season from the Cowboys. The question this year is whether they can get to a bowl game at all, and many are saying the answer is no.
But I identify six games that Oklahoma State should win this year. Four of them are in the first five, so expect to see the Cowboys 4-1 in October before they face Texas Tech and Nebraska back to back. Kansas State and Baylor are close; I give them Baylor at home. They'll lose to Texas and Oklahoma again but in-between they can get their sixth win but it's going to be close.
The best they can expect to do is 7-5, winning all the close ones. The worst, 4-8 if they drop all three. That puts them on the edge of the straight up 6-6 and 5-7 cumulative projections. Two of the "toss-up" games are road games, so that's against them. But they're just a bit ahead of two of the teams (home field advantage is factored into the estimates). It's going to be a nail-biter, but if I had to commit I'd say they make it. 6-6 it is.
| 70. Central Michigan Chippewas (MAC #3; West #2) Polls: AP #43 USA #49 |
2009 Results: Record: 12-2 Bowl: Beat Troy 44-41 2OT (GMAC Bowl) Poll finish: AP #23, USA #24
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #45 Success: #18 Overall: #42
The Chippewas adjust themselves to the post-LeFevour era.
Offense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #45 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #77
Dan LeFevour is gone. 'Nuff said.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #33 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #73
Quarterback Dan LeFevour was as big a deal to Mt. Pleasant, Michigan as Tim Tebow was to Tallahassee. And the two weren't dissimilar. Able to run as well as being an efficient passer, LeFevour had a typical season in '09 completing 70% of his attempts for 3,438 yards and 28 touchdowns against 7 interceptions. With soph Ryan Radcliff the probable starter they go from a QB with nearly 13,000 career passing yards to one with 115 and from 102 TD passes to zero. Worse, CMU loses top receivers Antonio Brown (110 receptions, 1,198 yards) and Bryan Anderson (784) who caught 16 TD passes between them. Four others who had over 100 receiving yards are back including Kito Poblah (681) and starting tight end David Blackburn (113). One brighter spot is the offensive line, which protected LeFevour well, allowing just 17 sacks (#41 in nation) in 479 attempts. But overall it's not rocket science to predict that production will be down considerably this season.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #72 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #82
LeFevour was of course also the leading rusher on the team with 713 yards and a stunning 15 touchdowns. Among running backs Bryan Schroeder was first with 559 and Carl Volny 2nd with 390. WR Brown had the best average, 8.1, with 341 yards in just 42 carries. With LeFevour, Schroeder, and Brown gone that leaves Volny and #5 gainer Paris Cotton (220) the top options. Luckily the offensive line should be conducive to opening holes in the running game as they return four starters. Allen Ollenburger is gone, but two 3-year starters, Colin Miller and Jeff Maddux, return with Rocky Weaver and Jake Olson. Despite losing three of their four leading rushers, whether they be quarterbacks, wide receivers, or running backs, the offensive line insures that the decline won't be huge, and new QB Radcliff has shown running ability himself.
Defense (5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #50 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #44
Two star linebackers will lead the defense to a slight overall improvement in '10.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #71 Adj. Pass Def: #64 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #56 Sacks: #54
The defensive line loses Frank Zombo's 6.5 sacks but Sean Murnane and John Williams are back. At linebacker seniors Nick Bellore (132 tackles, 10 tackles for loss) and Matt Berning (108 tackles), the team's two top tacklers, return. The secondary loses starters Kirkston Edwards, Josh Gordy (11 pass breakups), and Eric Fraser but Dannie Bolden is back along with '08 starter Bobby Seay. Though they only return five starters from last season they have five of the top six tacklers back forming a solid foundation to build on, particularly at linebacker.
Kicking Game: Brett Hartmann averaged just 38.4 yards per punt but his net (34.6) was decent enough. Placekicker Andrew Aguila departs after making 17 of 23 field goals last season. His replacement will be one of three freshmen: David Harman, Paul Mudgett, or Richie Hogan. Needless to say, there may be some drop in kicking quality this year.
Return Game: Multitalented Antonio Brown was not just the team's leading receiver and highest-averaged rusher, he also returned punts and kicks, 3 of them for touchdowns in all. Averaging a fantastic 13.5 per PR and 22.1 per KR, he will be missed. If you assume the Chippewas will be lucky to get even one touchdown return next season, that means Brown's loss from the return team costs them roughly a point per game. Jahleel Addae is slated as designated punt and kick returner, though receiver Cody Wilson had 103 yards on three kickoff returns last year and should see some action there.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #115
Dan Enos takes over the reigns at an appropriate time; with the big change in quarterbacks, he'll take the opportunity to remake the offense (and defense) to his vision. The recruiting class in the transition from Butch Jones (who went to Cincinnati, replacing ex-CMU coach Brian Kelly, who went to Notre Dame, as if you didn't know) is a poor one, which isn't unexpected. Last year's class ranked 59th, for comparison. The consensus top player in the class is defensive lineman Kevin Henry from Morris, Illinois, but few others are considered to have higher than average potential.
2009 Recap Another year, another 10+ win season under Dan LeFevour. The Chippewas lost to Arizona 19-6, which hurt their credibility in the national polls. It took them weeks of winning, starting with a victory at Michigan State (29-27) to get it back. CMU was 7-1 and had finally started getting votes in the polls when they lost 31-10 to Boston College, which further cemented their reputation as a team that couldn't beat major conference squads (despite the MSU win). But four wins later they were 11-2, and after edging Troy 44-41 in overtime in the GMAC bowl they were 12-2 and were rewarded with a spot in both polls.
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C. Michigan 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/2 | Thu | vs. | Hampton | 89% | W | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | @ | *Temple | 46% | L | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | @ | *Eastern Michigan | 74% | W | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | @ | Northwestern | 47% | L | |||
| 10/2 | Sat | vs. | *Ball State | 63% | W | |||
| 10/9 | Sat | @ | Virginia Tech | 19% | L | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | vs. | *Miami (Ohio) | 62% | W | |||
| 10/23 | Sat | @ | *Northern Illinois | 45% | L | |||
| 10/30 | Sat | vs. | *Bowling Green | 74% | W | |||
| 11/5 | Fri | vs. | *Western Michigan | 66% | W | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | @ | Navy | 44% | L | |||
| 11/26 | Fri | @ | *Toledo | 68% | W | |||
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Projection Straight up: 7-5 Cumulative: 7-5
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2010 Outlook The truth was, Central Michigan wasn't really a top 25 team. Though they deserved to be ranked for their accomplishments, they lost big to the only two winning BCS-conference teams they faced, and defeated only four winning teams all year. So this year, when they clearly aren't as good as last year, the Chippewas will struggle to be an average FBS football team.
Lucky for them their schedule is easy. I-AA Hampton at home? A breeze. 0-12 Eastern Michigan? No problem. Ball State, Miami of Ohio, Bowling Green, and Western Michigan at home? All pretty convincing wins for CMU. Even Toledo on the road is a solid "W."
That gives the Chippewas seven wins. Temple, Northwestern, Northern Illinois, and Navy, all on the road, all look like losses—but close losses. The only truly tough game on the slate is Virginia Tech.
The cumulative projection calls for a 7-5 season, too, and I think that's about correct. They could go 8-4 by stealing one of the road games, but let's not get greedy. They should be thankful that they can still manage a winning season without their 4-year starter stud and several other key players. It's not 12-2, but it will have to do.
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