2010 Pre-season Rankings - #61 to #65: Northern Illinois, Virginia, Maryland, Middle Tennessee, Tennessee

The SportsRatings 2010 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams. These rankings predict how good the teams will be in 2009 before taking schedule into account, then the preview explores how well they should do given their schedule.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team. Two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win (straight up), and also an aggregate projection that allows for the uncertainty across a season (cumulative). The expectation for the team's season lies somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #61 to #65. To see the full list, click here.

61. Northern Illinois Huskies (MAC #1; West #1)          Polls: USA/Coaches #49

2009 Results: Record: 7-6  Bowl: Lost to USF 27-3 (International Bowl)  Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #77    Success: #76    Overall: #79
While the offense improves, it's the defense that's going to win games for the Huskies this year.

Offense (6 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #87   '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #73
A bit less rushing but a lot more passing should spur the Huskie offense.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #111    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #89
Everyone's worried about whether Chandler Harnish will be healthy this year, but that misses the point. Northern Illinois' passing game won't be great whether he plays the whole year or not. Harnish had just 1,670 yards and 11 touchdowns last season while hobbled; if healthy the team should make a moderate jump in production, but that's just as much because of the returning targets. Five of six significant pass catchers are back including leading receiver Landon Cox (535 yards, 4 TDs). The offensive line will afford solid protection (15 sacks, #35 in nation adjusted) to whomever gets the job, be it Harnish, backup Demarcus Grady, or a newcomer.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #40     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #49
The real key to the Huskie offense is of course the running game, and Chad Spann had a great 2009. He barely topped 1,000 yards but had a stunning 19 touchdown runs. Backup Me'co Brown (645 yards) is gone and the #3 and #4 rushers were QBs Grady and Harnish (559 combined). The Huskies will to JUCO star Jasmin Hopkins to play a big role. The offensive line loses two stars, both 4-year starters, in Eddie Amanski and Jason Onyebuagu but Trevor Olson returns with Joe Pawlak and Adam Kiel. The loss of Brown and the two offensive line starters mean that the Huskie running game will be a bit down but certainly not out.

Defense (9 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #66    '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #33
An already bound-for-improvement defense gets a surprise late returnee.
• '09 Stats:  Adj. Rush Def: #72   Adj. Pass Def: #35   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #78   Sacks: #59
The NIU defense got a hugh boost after spring when Jake Coffman decided to return to the program after all. Coffman led the team with 8.5 sacks and added 5 tackles for loss and broke up 5 passes, and his return bolsters an already strengthened defensive line. They lose Brandon Bice (5 sacks) but return D.J. Pirkle and half-time starters Sean Progar (6 sacks) and Brian Lawson and get 2008 starter Mike Krauss back from medical redshirt as well, meaning the rushing defense should be much better this year. At linebacker they lose Corey Hanson but Pat Schiller and Alex Kube return. And the secondary is fully stocked from last year, with #1 tackler Tracy Wilson and Mike Sobol at safety and Chris Smith and Patrick George at corner, looking for a much better performance on pass defense. With Coffman back they have 7 of the top 8 tacklers from last year.

Kicking Game: Mike Salerno departs after making 19 of 25 field goals and sharing punting duties (39.2 ave). Josh Wilbur (40.5) takes over full-time at punter while freshman Matthew Sims or sophomore Alex Faust will be the new placekicker.
Return Game: Backup safety Tommy Davis will continue to be the featured return man after averaging 24.1 per kickoff return with one touchdown and 8.0 per punt return.
Coaching/Recruiting      '10 Recruiting Rank: #93
Jerry Kill's 3rd recruiting class ranks around 3rd to 5th in the MAC and is similar to last year's group in ranking. They do have two noteable JUCO transfers in QB Casey Weston and RB Jasmin Hopkins, who led the JUCO nation in yardage at their respective positions.

2009 Recap  Northern Illinois almost stunned Wisconsin last year, losing just 28-20. They went into Purdue though and there they got a win over a Big Ten team by a nearly identical score, 28-21. A then-shocking loss to Idaho (34-31) and lost a heartbreaker to Toledo, 20-19 but after four wins in a row they were 7-3. But they lost at Ohio and with it the division title, then fell to East champ Central Michigan and were shut down by South Florida in the International Bowl.

N. Illinois 2010 schedule & forecast
9/2	Thu	@	Iowa State	50%	L
9/11	Sat	vs.	North Dakota	77%	W
9/18	Sat	@	Illinois	50%	W
9/25	Sat	@	Minnesota	44%	L
10/2	Sat	@	*Akron	65%	W
10/9	Sat	vs.	*Temple	53%	W
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Buffalo	66%	W
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Central Michigan	55%	W
10/30	Sat	@	*Western Michigan	62%	W
11/9	Tue	vs.	*Toledo	76%	W
11/20	Sat	@	*Ball State	59%	W
11/26	Fri	@	*Eastern Michigan	76%	W
Projection   Straight up: 10-2   Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook  This year the Huskies should win the West division title and likely the MAC title.

Despite starting with four of five on the road Northern Illinois should emerge 3-2 or 4-1. And if they are 5-0, they have a chance of running the table and going 12-0.

That's a bit doubtful, as the cumulative projection calls for a 7-5 year. Even if they win the first five it would still call for just 9 or 10 wins, given the uncertainty of beating teams like Temple, Central Michigan, and even Ball State.

But here the Huskies are the favorite against everyone except Iowa State and Minnesota, making those the key games of the season. With ra oad game in-state foe Illinois sandwiched between, I don't think they'll be looking past anybody early one.

All in all there are about five games that could go either way, and that doesn't consider upsets, so the 10-2 straight-up projection is a bit optimistic. NIU split the close games last year and if they do again they'll be about 9-3 in 2009.

 

62. Virginia Cavaliers (ACC #10; Coastal #5)

2009 Results: Record: 3-9      Bowl: None      Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #58    Success: #81    Overall: #58
New head coach Mike London tries to get the ball rolling again at Virginia.

Offense (5 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #72   '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #86
With a new system coming in, things will change but the results may or may not be different.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #93    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #98
Jameel Sewell only threw for 1,848 yards, so making up his production through the air isn't such a daunting proposition. Particularly when you have a quarterback who threw for over 2,000 yards the previous season. Marc Verica wasn't used much last year and had a big problem with interceptions before, so it's not all smooth sailing. He'll have top receiver Kris Burd (413 yards) back, and though the next three depart there are three others who have over 100 yards including tight end Joe Torchia as the ball was evenly-distributed last year. The offensive line allowed 41 sacks (#116) last year and Verica might have to get used to it, another reason the passing game probably won't advance this season.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #96     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #105
Rashawn Jackson and Mikell Simpson combined for 847 yards in the Cavaliers' paltry rushing attack. They're both gone, and the next two were QB Sewell and #2 wide receiver Vic Hall and they both depart. That leaves Torrey Mack (73 yds), Dominique Wallace (49), or Keith Payne (253 yards in 2007) as your returning options. The offensive line won't make great strides with 4-year starter Will Barker and 2-year starter Jack Shields gone. B.J. Cabbell, Austin Pasztor, and Landon Bradley return. With a new head coach will come a new offensive system, and that's the only hope for a big increase in ground production.

Defense (6 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #35    '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #40
Virginia's defense wasn't bad at all in 2009, and shouldn't get considerably better or worse.
• '09 Stats:  Adj. Rush Def: #78   Adj. Pass Def: #20   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #26   Sacks: #51
The Cavaliers' main problem on defense was stopping the run, and with three starters returning to the new 4-man defensive line they've got a head start in tackling that problem. Juniors Matt Conrath, Nick Jenkins, and former linebacker Cam Johnson all return. Losing Nate Collins (6 sacks) will hurt the pass rush, however. At linebacker they lose two starters and Johnson moves to the D-line, but they only have three slots to fill and Steve Greer (#1 tackler) is back. Rodney McLeod and Ras-I Dowling are back on the secondary and with 2008 starter Corey Mosley still around they should keep the pass defense ranking high.

Kicking Game: Punter Jimmy Howell returns after averaging 40.1 yards a kick, while Robert Randolph had an excellent year hitting 17 of 19 field goal attempts.
Return Game: Cornerback Chase Minnifield averaged just 4.4 yards per punt return but did much better on kickoffs at 23.3. Perry Jones may be the main kickoff return man this year as Minnifield takes on a starting position on defense.
Coaching/Recruiting      '10 Recruiting Rank: #81
Al Groh was on the red hot seat in 2007 but a 9-4 record (with many close wins) saved him. But back to back 5-7 and 3-9 seasons pushed him out, and Mike London takes over this year. The recruiting class he put together, like many in transition years, is well below last season's, and ranks 2nd to last in the ACC. There is one consensus blue chip in 6' 7" 350 lb. offensive lineman Morgan Moses, who spend a year at Fork Union Military Academy to get his grades up.

2009 Recap  Al Groh's final season didn't start off well...or finish well for that matter. Losing to William & Mary 26-14 at home, and starting 0-3 was bad enough. But the team actually came alive, beating North Carolina 16-3 and evening their record at 3-3. But they dropped six straight games to finish 3-9 and that was all she wrote for Groh.

Virginia 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Richmond	55%	W
9/11	Sat	@	Southern Cal	38%	L
9/25	Sat	vs.	VMI	88%	W
10/2	Sat	vs.	*Florida State	36%	L
10/9	Sat	@	*Georgia Tech	29%	L
10/16	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina	32%	L
10/23	Sat	vs.	Eastern Michigan	82%	W
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Miami (Florida)	31%	L
11/6	Sat	@	*Duke	48%	L
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Maryland	53%	W
11/20	Sat	@	*Boston College	38%	L
11/27	Sat	@	*Virginia Tech	21%	L
Projection   Straight up: 4-8   Cumulative: 6-6

2010 Outlook  The outlook is a little bit better this year even if the team isn't as good. Though Richmond is comparable to William & Mary from last year, it should probably be a win and if not, Virginia Military on the 25th will be. In-between they head to USC for an all-but-certain loss despite the highish odds given here.

Then FSU, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina are all pretty certain losses, followed by another "gimme" against Eastern Michigan at home (whoever made this schedule knew what he was doing). Miami will be tough, but they should win one or the other of Duke and Maryland before two more tough ACC games close out the year.

That gives them four wins, or five or six (rounded up) by the cumulative projection. The easiest way to five wins is to beat both Duke and Maryland, but knowing Virginia they'll lose both but upset two other teams on the ACC schedule. Even if they win both, *and* get an upset somewhere to finish 6-6 they won't go to a bowl game due to the double-FCS strike against their schedule. Whether they win 4, 5, or 6 the Cavaliers will be staying home again in December.

 

63. Maryland Terrapins (ACC #8; Atlantic #4)

2009 Results: Record: 2-10      Bowl: None      Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #82    Success: #91    Overall: #82
Though they return the Terrapins may make a comeback this year.

Offense (6 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #89   '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #80
A healthy Da'rel Scott is the key to offensive improvement for the Terps.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #64    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #67
Departing quarterback Chris Turner threw for a decent 2,000+ yards while completing 59%. Not the hardest act to follow, as Turner always had about the same amount of interceptions as touchdowns (10 each last year), and Jamaar Robinson (54%, 459 yards, 2 TDs) got some valuable experience as backup last year, starting a few games. Miami, Ohio transfer Clay Belton is another option but his numbers were tepid there. Maryland does have a good stable of receivers as the top four return: Torrey Smith (824 yards) and Adrian Cannon (468) are back with Ronnie Tyler and RB Davin Meggett. Pressure may continue to be a problem as the Terps gave up 36 sacks last year. In all, the passing game shouldn't be expected to carry the team but the receivers are excellent.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #98     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #77
Top rushers Da'rel Scott, Davin Meggett, and QB Robinson combined for 992 yards last season, certainly not a stellar number but considering that Scott was injured and had 1,133 in 2008 there is a lot of upside here. The offensive line loses two important starters, Phil Costa and Bruce Campbell, while Paul Pinegar, Andrew Gonnella, and R.J. Dill return. #5 rusher Celeb Porzel transferred but with the top four back they are in good shape. Scott might not match his '08 total but should greatly exceed '09's number if he stays healthy.

Defense (5 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #74    '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #70
Despite personnel losses in the D-line and secondary the heart of the defense is back at linebacker.
• '09 Stats:  Adj. Rush Def: #60   Adj. Pass Def: #93   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #89   Sacks: #57
Maryland must replace three of four starters on the defensive line, meaning their average rushing defense may get even worse. The pass rush (again, average) might not suffer as the three combined for just five sacks. A.J. Francis is the sole returnee to the line, but there's help right behind him at linebacker. Alex Wujciak (#1 tackler with 131), Adrian Moten (6 sacks), and Demetrius Hartsfield are all back for the Terps but key reserve Ben Pooler injured his knee in camp and is out for the year. The secondary appears to be in worse shape as three starters are gone there, too, but starter Cameron Chism led the team with four interceptions and also back are Kenny Tate and Atwine Perez, the defense's #7 and #8 tacklers. Though the losses at the starting positions are heavy the defense returns nearly all of the 2nd and 3rd string. Overall 6 of the top 8 tacklers are back and Wujciak should probably count double.

Kicking Game: Nick Ferrara hit 18 of 25 field goals and doubled as punter along with Travis Baltz; each averaged around 40 yards per punt. Both are back and Baltz should be the #1 punter.
Return Game: Toney Logan was barely adequate as a punt returner last year, with a 6.7 yard average. But Torrey Smith was a dynamite kick returner with two touchdown returns while averaging 25.7 yards. Both are back this season.
Coaching/Recruiting      '10 Recruiting Rank: #50
Ralph Friedgen had a trying season in 2009, by far the worst of his tenure. It may have hurt recruiting, too, as the Terps slipped far from last year's near-top 25 class. It didn't help that their top catch, linebacker Javarie Johnson decided to transfer before ever playing a down for Maryland.

2009 Recap  Last pre-season my charts foretold a 1-11 year for the Terps (with 4-8 cume), but I didn't believe it was possible that they'd fall below 3-9 after an 8-5 2008. They did beat James Madison though it took overtime, and for the second straight year they lost to Middle Tennessee State. After a loss to Rutgers they pulled one of their "what the hell?" games from back in '08 out of their pockets and beat Clemson. Then they lost seven straight games, finishing 2-10 which beat the 1-11 doomsday forecast but fell 1 win short of what I thought was their minimum.

Maryland 2010 schedule & forecast
9/6	Mon	N	Navy	49%	L
9/11	Sat	vs.	Morgan State	93%	W
9/18	Sat	@	West Virginia	35%	L
9/25	Sat	vs.	Florida International	74%	W
10/2	Sat	vs.	*Duke	54%	W
10/16	Sat	@	*Clemson	31%	L
10/23	Sat	@	*Boston College	37%	L
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Wake Forest	52%	W
11/6	Sat	@	*Miami (Florida)	25%	L
11/13	Sat	@	*Virginia	47%	L
11/20	Sat	vs.	*Florida State	35%	L
11/27	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina State	55%	W
Projection   Straight up: 5-7   Cumulative: 6-6

2010 Outlook  This year looks a lot better. Kind scheduling gives them two easy games (Morgan State and FIU) and with a neutral-field tossup against Navy the Terps could start 3-1.

Either way, there are probably three ACC wins on the board plus another at Virginia that is winnable. In all the charts forecast 5 wins, with a 6-6 cumulative projection.

All of the forecasted wins come at home, so if they can defend their own turf the Terrapins only need to win one more game to be bowl-eligible. That means the Navy opener takes on huge significance in terms of the team's December plans.

If they lose that, then Virginia is their best bet for a true road win. West Virginia, Clemson, Boston College, Miami, and Florida State (at home) look like fairly certain losses.

But you never know, as they've beaten Clemson two years running. Maryland remains an unpredictable team so I'll go with the cumulative projection, which doesn't make game-by-game selections but looks at the cumulative odds. 6-6 sounds good to me.

 

64. Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (Sun Belt #1)          Polls: AP #43

2009 Results: Record: 10-3  Bowl: Beat So. Miss 42-32 (New Orleans)  Poll finish: AP #37, USA #33
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #66    Success: #44    Overall: #64
It's looking like a special season is in store for the Blue Raiders—as long as Dwight Dasher plays.

Offense (8 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #61   '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #34
Dwight Dasher *is* the MTSU offense. If he stays healthy (and eligible), all is well.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #62    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #42
Quarterback Dwight Dasher racked up 2,789 yards and 23 touchdowns through the air and still there's room for improvement: he completed just 55% of his attempts and threw 14 interceptions. Back for his senior year we should see Dasher do better in those areas. Although two of the top three receivers from last year are gone including leader Chris McClover (541 yards), Garrett Andrews (530) and Shane Blissard (283) return as well as five others who had over 100 receiving yards. The offensive line was fairly solid in allowing just 19 sacks and loses just one starter. Last year's backup Brent Burnette transferred, leaving even greener players in charge in case of an injury to Dasher, which is the only thing that can prevent the passing game from making significant gains.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #39     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #19
Dasher was also the team's primary ground gainer to the tune of 1,154 yards and 13 touchdowns, making his value to the team all the more apparent. Running back D.D. Kyles added a very respectable 857 yards but may take a back seat to Phillip Tanner who was a medical redshirt last year after rushing for 714 yards in 2008. So there are multiple ways the Raiders can hit you on the ground. The offensive line deserves much credit for this production and the continued gains the team will make this year. Four starters return to the line: Mark Fisher, Mike Williams, Brandon McLeroy, and Alex Stuart are back while Mark Thompson departs. With both Kyles and Tanner as options the Raiders will have a top 25 level rushing attack in 2010.

Note: Dwight Dasher has been suspended by MTSU for "30% of the season." The Raiders will be lucky if the NCAA accepts that as punishment, but we're treating it as if it's the case. The team's rating remains the same while the first four games are graded with Dasher absent.

Defense (6 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #65    '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #78
The loss of two key linebackers should cause the MTSU defense to slip a bit.
• '09 Stats:  Adj. Rush Def: #57   Adj. Pass Def: #70   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #49   Sacks: #15
The Raider defensive line has its plusses and minuses this year. On the plus side they have Jamari Lattimore (5.5 sacks) and Dwight Smith back. On the minus side they lose Chris McCoy (7 sacks, 13 tackles for loss) and Brandon Perry, while Smith and backup Sacoby Carter might not be 100% to start the year. Those minuses probably outweight the plusses, which is also true at linebacker as MTSU loses its top two tacklers, Cam Robinson (113 tackles, 5 sacks) and Danny Carmichael (6.5 sacks). Antwan Davis is back but between Robinson, Carmichael, and McCoy they lose 1/2 of the team's sacks and the Raiders' #15 pass pressure rating is sure to plummet. The secondary is in much better shape with three starters, Rod Issac, Kevin Brown (4 interceptions), and Jeremy Kellem (3 int)—all seniors—returning to the fold. Alex Suber (12 pass breakups) is gone but overall the secondary should be even better this season and help compensate for a weaker pass rush.

Kicking Game: Alan Gendreau was a fantastic placekicker last year, hitting 18 of 22 attempts. He's back, but the Raiders need a replacement for punter David DeFatta, who averaged a poor 38.7 last season. Nathaniel Toulson will take over those duties in the fall.
Return Game: RB/WR Desmond Gee was the main kick return man last season, averaging 22.2 yards per return; he's gone, as is receiver Patrick Honeycutt who averaged just 5 yards per punt return. Running back Philip Tanner may take over kickoffs while Rod Isaac fields punts.
Coaching/Recruiting      '10 Recruiting Rank: #100
Rick Stockstill has MTSU in the midst of a breakthrough in Murfreesboro. His recruiting has been about average for the Sun Belt lately, where most players come in as projects anyway so it's up to the coaching staff to identify and develop potential among those that the bigger conferences have passed over. One bigger prospect from the '10 class is JUCO QB Logan Kilgore, who could play backup to Dasher this season.

2009 Recap  The Blue Raiders burned through their 2009 schedule, losing only to Sun Belt champ Troy BCS conference schools Clemson and Mississippi State. Few gave them much credit for this however, and with good reason. One, clearing out the Sun Belt without beating Troy isn't really much of an accomplishment; out of conference they beat only lowly Memphis and Maryland, both 2-10. Secondly, they were beat pretty convincingly in their losses: 37-14 at Clemson, 31-7 at Troy, and 27-6 to Mississippi State. By the end of the regular season MTSU hadn't beaten a team with a winning record. They fixed that with a 42-32 defeat of Southern Mississippi in the New Orleans Bowl, the first time many had seen Dasher play. He'll have a lot more eyes on him this year.

MTSU 2010 schedule & forecast
9/2	Thu	vs.	Minnesota	53%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Austin Peay	80%	W
9/18	Sat	@	Memphis	59%	W
9/25	Sat	@	*LA-Lafayette	58%	W
10/5	Tue	vs.	*Troy	67%	W
10/16	Sat	@	Georgia Tech	29%	L
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Louisiana-Monroe	75%	W
11/2	Tue	@	*Arkansas State	62%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*North Texas	67%	W
11/20	Sat	@	*Western Kentucky	67%	W
11/27	Sat	vs.	*Florida Atlantic	70%	W
12/4	Sat	@	*Florida International	68%	W
Projection   Straight up: 11-1   Cumulative: 8-4

2010 Outlook  This may be a special year for the Blue Raiders. I think they'll again sweep through the Sun Belt conference—Troy included—on their way to a conference title and a very good record.

Whether they'll achieve the 11 wins listed here is debatable. Minnesota will be a tough foe and they could stumble somewhere in conference. They cumulative projection calls for an 8-4 season, reflecting all these uncertainties.

But the only game on the slate that looks out of reach is when the Raiders travel to Georgia Tech. That game will do a lot for the program if they even keep it close. After two big losses to BCS programs last season it's crucial they play well if they want a spot in the final Top 25.

MTSU might not have the confidence to beat a Big Ten school in the opener; they might be too hyped at the season's start. Between that possibility and the chance of a slip-up somewhere else, I'll be a bit conservative and call for a 10-2 season. And if they win another bowl game they'll finish in the top 25.

Note: since Dasher's situation is uncertain, we've simply treated the first four games as if he were absent. The Minnesota game should have swung over to the Gophers—but they're going to have three key starters missing in that game! So although the percentages plummet on the other three games, the forecast surprisingly remains the same. But a lot more uncertainty has been added to MTSU's season.

 

65. Tennessee Volunteers (SEC #11; East #5)

2009 Results: Record: 7-6  Bowl: Lost to Virginia Tech 37-14 (Chik-Fil-A)  Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #21    Success: #45    Overall: #25
Hits against the offense and defense have the Vols floundering in Dooley's first year.

Offense (4 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #23   '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #94
A depleted offensive line paves the way for a potential offensive meltdown this year, although incoming and redshirt freshman will prevent things from being quite as bad as the projected rankings here suggest.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #37    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #105
Jonathan Crompton was so good in 2009 that he has Volunteer fans missing him now that he's gone. With 2,800 passing yards and 27 TDs, Crompton exceeded everyone's expectations and now with every FBS-experienced quarterback gone. Backup Nick Stephens is gone. Matt Simms, Phil's skinny son, had 39 yards two years ago at Louisville. Doak Raulston was a redshirt at Louisiana Tech. Sophomore Nick Lamaison transferred out. RIght now it looks like Simms and freshman Tyler Bray are the #1 and #2. There are some very good receivers back, though. Gerald Jones, Denarius Moore, and tight end Luke Stocker were the top three last year combining for over 1,600 yards and 16 TDs. Starting fullback Kevin Cooper (110 rec. yards) returns too. But that's not enough to offset a very green quarterback behind an even greener offensive line. Last year they gave up a reasonable 19 sacks (#22 in nation adjusted) but lose all five starters.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #38     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #109
The running game looks to suffer similarly. With Monterio Hardesty (1,345 yards, 13 TDs) gone along with last year's sensation recruit Bryce Brown (460 yards), the Vols lose most of their production and open up a big opportunity for Tauren Poole who had 85 yards in just 10 carries. He'll be running behind a brand new offensive line, however, as the Vols lose 3-year starter Chris Scott, 2-year starter Jacques McClendon, Aaron Douglas, and both Cory and Cody Sullins. They'll be starting at least one and probably two freshmen. Poole still has a chance for a good year but he'll have to do all the work.

Defense (5 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #27    '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #52
The defense isn't as bad off as the offense, but that doesn't say much.
• '09 Stats:  Adj. Rush Def: #35   Adj. Pass Def: #24   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #11   Sacks: #83
The defensive line is in rough shape after starter Ben Martin (3.5 sacks) and projected starter Marlon Walls both tore their Achilles' tendons and are out for the year. Even before that the loss of #3 tackler Dan Williams and Wes Brown (5 sacks combined) meant that the weak pass rush would get weaker. Now only Chris Walker (6 sacks) returns and USC transfer Malik Jackson is eligible this year, but the rushing defense will soften. At linebacker they're in better shape with LaMarcus Thompson and Neck Reveiz back but the loss of #1 tackler Rico McCoy (119 tackles) hurts. Finally the secondary loses Eric Berry, the #5 pick in the NFL draft, as well as Dennis Rogan. Art Evans and Janzen Jackson are back but the Vols' great pass defense of '09 will suffer. Overall the top four tacklers are gone and most importantly they lose Berry.

Kicking Game: Chad Cunningham averaged 42.1 yards per punt, and Daniel Lincoln made 10 of 16 field goals but was injured and hit just 1 of 6 outside the 40. Both are back for their senior years, but Cunningham may be pushed by incoming freshman Matt Darr, the top-rated high school punter in the '10 class.
Return Game: Nu'Keese Richarson averaged 11.0 yards per punt return and handled some kickoffs as well. He's gone but main kickoff returnman, running back David Oku, is back after averaging a solid 26.2 per attempt. Safety Janzen Jackson heads the punt fielding crew this year.
Coaching/Recruiting      '10 Recruiting Rank: #11
Derek Dooley is Tennessee's third coach in three years. They traded Phil Fulmer for Lane Kiffin, who understandably jumped at the chance to coach USC when the job opened and they offered him an outrageous salary. Dooley inherits a score of Kiffin-related problems, among them Bryce Brown (Dooley hasn't released him from scholarship), the NCAA sniffing around, and player defections that started with Kiffin's reign. One thing that hasn't slipped about the program is recruiting. Both Kiffin and Dooley still put together top ten classes in their first year. Wide receiver Da'rick Rogers (already in trouble in the pre-season) is the 5-star catch of the class, while more than half a dozen others are consensus blue chips. Note that Tennessee's Rushing, Passing, and Defense projectioned rankings are figured before new and redshirt freshman are factored into the team's overall ranking. So the Vols' top ten-level classes from the past two years will play a big part in keeping the team from collapsing this year.

2009 Recap  Tennesse beat up on poor Western Kentucky 63-7 to start the year but it was a different matter next week as they fell at home to UCLA 19-15. They gained respect by playing Florida very close, losing only 23-13. For the most part they looked better when losing: to Florida, to Auburn 26-22 when the Tigers were undefeated; and especially to Alabama 12-10, in a game they lost on a blocked kick. They put together a few good wins, beating Georgia 45-19, and South Carolina 31-13. Finishing 6-6, they somehow got to (or had to) play Virginia Tech and were handled soundly 37-14.

Tennessee 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Tennessee-Martin	87%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Oregon	28%	L
9/18	Sat	vs.	*Florida	28%	L
9/25	Sat	vs.	UAB	54%	W
10/2	Sat	@	*LSU	32%	L
10/9	Sat	@	*Georgia	36%	L
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	25%	L
10/30	Sat	@	*South Carolina	30%	L
11/6	Sat	@	Memphis	65%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi	42%	L
11/20	Sat	@	*Vanderbilt	55%	W
11/27	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	48%	L
Projection   Straight up: 4-8   Cumulative: 5-7

2010 Outlook  Between the three head coaches in three years the only constant will be a mediocre record. Tennessee has a very rough schedule in the first 2/3 of the season and will be lucky to do better than 2-6. Between I-AA cupcake Tennessee-Martin and UAB at home they face Oregon and Florida. Then they go on the road and face LSU, Georgia, and South Carolina, with Alabama at home in the middle.

The final four games are much kinder and all could be wins. If so, that would put them at 6-6 for the year and deliver another bowl game. But Kentucky will be a tough game, and Mississippi moreso. The projection at left has the Vols just 4-8, but I like the cumulative projection of 5-7.

To get to 6-6 might require an upset of one of the very tough teams in the first 8 games. But with 6-6 looking like an upper limit their odds of reaching it appear poor. The good news is that the four must-win games come at the end of the season, by which time the new quarterback and new offensive line should have settled in, and the freshmen from the great recruiting classes will be used to playing big-time ball.