The SportsRatings 2010 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams. These rankings predict how good the teams will be in 2009 before taking schedule into account, then the preview explores how well they should do given their schedule.
Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team. Two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win (straight up), and also an aggregate projection that allows for the uncertainty across a season (cumulative). The expectation for the team's season lies somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.
This installment covers teams from #56 to #60. To see the full list, click here.
| 56. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (ACC #9; Atlantic #5) |
2009 Results: Record: 5-7 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #53 Success: #65 Overall: #53
Wake Forest moves on without Riley Skinner at quarterback.
Offense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #51 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #79
The loss of 4-year starting QB Riley Skinner hurts the offense.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #27 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #61
Riley Skinner's senior campaign was a strong one. He completed 66% of his passes for 3,160 yards and 26 touchdowns. Ex-wide receiver Skylar Jones is slated to take over for him. That alone should suggest that a significant drop in production is likely, but a full complement of receivers is available: Marshall Williams, Devon Brown, and Chris Givens each had over 600 receiving yards and combined for 20 touchdown receptions, while RB Josh Adams had 28 catches. The offensive line allowed 28 sacks last year and loses three starter, however. Between a new quarterback, a weaker line, and a move toward a run-oriented offense Wake's passing game will fall from near top 25 quality to somewhere around average for the FBS.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #73 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #76
Josh Adams and Brandon Pendergrass combined for 940 yards last season and both are back. #3 Kevin Harris departs but receivers Brown and Givens had nearly 250 yards between them. With nearly everyone back and the employment of a run-option offense the numbers could get much better. The offensive line loses 4-year starter Jeff Griffin and 3-year starters Chris DeGeare and Barrett McMillin. Russell Nenon and Joe Looney return, but the line will inevitably be weaker and the switch to the new system might not be without some struggle.
Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #48 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #48
A bit weaker in front and middle but a bit stronger in the secondary, the defense should be roughly the same when all is said and done.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #69 Adj. Pass Def: #56 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #40 Sacks: #39
The defensive line returns just one true starter, Tristan Dorty, though Kyle Wilbur should be at full health too. John Russell's team-leading 4.5 sacks will be missed. Four linebackers took starts in the three positions, and Matt Woodlief and Hunter Haynes are back but #1 tackler Dominique Midgett is gone along with Jonathan Jones. The secondary was competent last season and could be better still this year. Brandon Ghee (8 pass breakups) is gone but Cyhl Quarles, Kenny Okoro (11 pass breakups), Alex Frye, and Josh Bush have things covered.
Kicking Game: Punter Shane Popham (38.9 average) and placekicker Jimmy Newman (11 of 17 FG) both return.
Return Game: WR Devon Brown handled punts and averaged just 5.1 per return, while Lovell Jackson took the majority of kickoffs for a strong 24.1 average. Both are back.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #77
Jim Grobe continues to build the program that he turned around over the last decade. Recruiting to Wake Forest still isn't easy and this year's class ranks low in the ACC, but things are a lot better than they used to be. There are no consensus blue chips in the 2010 class but more than half of the players are considered above-average (3-star) than average, which used to be Wake's lot.
2009 Recap It was another rough year in the ACC for the Deacons. An early loss to Baylor was disappointing, but a controversial win over Stanford looked more impressive as the season went on. Unfortunately as the season went on Wake lost a lot of games, starting with an overtime loss to Boston College. Though they beat N.C. State and Maryland early to stand 4-2 they dropped five straight, four to ACC foes and one to Navy (13-10). They came within an inch of beating both Miami and Georgia Tech in that stretch but had to settle for a season-ending victory over Duke.
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Wake Forest 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/2 | Thu | vs. | Presbyterian | 97% | W | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | vs. | *Duke | 54% | W | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | @ | Stanford | 31% | L | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | @ | *Florida State | 31% | L | |||
| 10/2 | Sat | vs. | *Georgia Tech | 37% | L | |||
| 10/9 | Sat | vs. | Navy | 52% | W | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | @ | *Virginia Tech | 22% | L | |||
| 10/30 | Sat | @ | *Maryland | 46% | L | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | vs. | *Boston College | 43% | L | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | @ | *North Carolina State | 49% | L | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | vs. | *Clemson | 38% | L | |||
| 11/27 | Sat | @ | Vanderbilt | 56% | W | |||
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Projection Straight up: 4-8 Cumulative: 6-6
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2010 Outlook The loss of Skinner has fans wondering how the team will do without him. The likely answer: in the end, probably about the same as last year.
The opener against weak FCS team Presbyterian is a joke, and though Chris Givens is suspended through the Duke game they should beat the Blue Devils at home. Three tough games follow, including a payback game at Stanford. Wake plays Navy yet again, and is 2-2 and this game should be close as well but we'll give them a home victory.
The next five games are tough though several will be close. Until they visit Vanderbilt though they might not get another win. Though that only adds up to a 4-8 season, with all the close games considered they should be about 6-6.
There is really only one guaranteed win on the slate so if things go very wrong—the new quarterback is awful and nothing works on offense—they might end up like Maryland last season. The upside is harder to calculate but it's hard to see them getting much more than seven wins. Based on this I'm thinking that 4-8, or maybe 5-7, is where the Deacon will end up this year.
| 57. Idaho Vandals (WAC #4) |
2009 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Beat Bowling Green 43-42 (Humanitarian) Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #94 Success: #67 Overall: #93
The offense lags a bit but the defense will be a lot better—or at least should be.
Offense (4 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #42 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #52
A weaker offensive line and the loss of their top back and receiver offset the returning talent at QB.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #16 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #20
Idaho's passing game was one of the nation's best, even when adjusted for their often-weak opposition (#12 in raw yardage, #16 corrected). Nathan Enderle and Brian Reader combined for 3,707 yards throught the air. Enderle had 22 touchdown passes and 9 interceptions; backup Reader had 6 and 6. Both quarterbacks return, Enderle for his senior year and Reader his junior. Top receiver Max Komar (1,052 yards and 11 TDs) is gone but the next six most prolific receivers are back, each of whom had at least 10 catches and 100 yards. Among them are tight end Daniel Hardy (691 yards), Maurice Shaw (666 yds.), Preston Davis (460), and Eric Greenwood (401). But the reason the passing game will likely decline is the offensive line; it gave up 25 sacks last year and that number may increase as four starters are replaced.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #70 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #97
De'Maundray Woolridge nearly had a 1,000 yard season with the Vandals and scored an amazing 18 touchdowns. His loss hurts but he wasn't the only capable back: Princeton McCarty rushed for 680 yards and Deonte' Jackson 387. McCarty's average (5.9) was comparable to Woolridge's (5.7) while Jackson lagged (4.4) but Jackson had 1,175 in 2008 so both are in the running for the starting job this year, and both are sure to get their opportunities. It will be a rougher road this season however, as the offensive line loses a lot of its talent. First and foremost Mike Iupati, a 3-year starter and 1st round NFL draft choice; two 2-year starters, Bryce Sinclair and Adam Juratovac; and starting center Irvin Stevens. Matt Cleveland is back, as is Tyrone Novikoff a half-time starter in 2008. Needless to say the line will be weaker and ground production will be much harder to come by, even for the talented Vandal running backs.
Defense (10 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #115 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #56
Idaho can be better only one way this year: with a dramatically better defense. And they may have it.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #79 Adj. Pass Def: #118 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #115 Sacks: #115
Idaho's entire defensive line is back this year. Not that they were great last year, as they were poor at stopping the running and terrible at spearheading any sort of pass rush. But with Aaron Lavaias and Jonah Satakara (4 sacks each) back along with Andre Ferguson and Michael Cosgrove, the Vandals now have a veteran line that should make big strides in both areas. The full linebacker corps returns, too: JoJo Dickson, Robert Siavii, and Paul Senescall are also all upperclassmen. That makes four seniors and three juniors in the Vandal front seven, all returning starters. The real problem last year was pass defense, where Idaho was worthless. Things will improve a lot as three starters return: #1 tackler Shiloh Keo (113 tackles, 3 interceptions), Kenneth Patten, and Issac Butts and Aaron Grymes who started half-time each. In all 14 of Idaho's top 15 tacklers are back from last season.
Kicking Game: Kicker Trey Farquhar hit 13 of 19 field goals last year (long of 54) while Bobby Cowan averaged 43 yards per punt. Both were freshmen last year so the Vandals should be set in this department for years.
Return Game: Safety Shiloh Keo did a solid job as punt returner, averaging 10.2 yards per attempt. Kama Bailey did well returning kickoffs (20.6) but Justin Veltung was the star, averaging 25 per return and taking one back for a touchdown. All three return.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #88
Robb Akey persevered through 1-11 and 2-10 seasons before last year's breakthrough. This year's recruiting class is a marked improvement from 2009, perhaps because of that strong season. Unlike last year the 2010 class has a handful of players with above-average potential, among them offensive linemen Sam Tupua and Mike Marboe both of whom should contribute heavily this year.
2009 Recap Idaho surprised nearly everyone in 2009. Beating New Mexico State in the opener wasn't such a huge deal, and losing to Washington probably confirmed that they weren't for real. But then the Vandals went on a five-game winning streak and were bowl-eligible before some of the better teams in the country! They came back down to earth though, losing to Nevada 70-45 and losing three straight at the end of the regular season. They put on a great show against Bowling Green, demonstrating their offensive prowess and defensive ineptitude in a 43-42 win in the Humanitarian Bowl, showing Boise State-like pluck in going for a winning 2-point conversion.
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Idaho 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/2 | Thu | vs. | North Dakota | 80% | W | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | @ | Nebraska | 25% | L | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | vs. | UNLV | 65% | W | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | @ | Colorado State | 56% | W | |||
| 10/2 | Sat | @ | Western Michigan | 63% | W | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | @ | *Louisiana Tech | 47% | L | |||
| 10/23 | Sat | vs. | *New Mexico State | 84% | W | |||
| 10/30 | Sat | @ | *Hawaii | 60% | W | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | vs. | *Nevada | 53% | W | |||
| 11/12 | Fri | vs. | *Boise State | 23% | L | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | @ | *Utah State | 53% | W | |||
| 11/27 | Sat | @ | *Fresno State | 46% | L | |||
| 12/4 | Sat | vs. | *San Jose State | 84% | W | |||
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Projection Straight up: 9-4 Cumulative: 7-6
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2010 Outlook For Idaho to have the kind of season I'm forecasting below, one thing has to happen: the defense has to make considerable gains. That's easier said than done, but if it happens the Vandals will have another great year, maybe even better than last season.
The projection at the left calls for a 9-4 season: six solid wins, three close wins, two close losses, and two almost certain losses.
The certain losses are Nebraska and Boise State; the close losses Louisiana Tech and Fresno State.
The solid wins are North Dakota, UNLV, Western Michigan, New Mexico State, Hawaii, and San Jose State. Winning just these would leave Idaho 6-7 and one game shy of bowl-eligibility.
The close wins are Colorado State, Nevada, and Utah State. Win all five close games and Idaho is 11-2.
The cumulative projection calls for a 7-6 year. With six solid wins available I think that's a bit low, and if Idaho splits all five close games they will be 8-5 or 9-4. Because this scenario depends upon a pretty drastic upgrade in the team's defense, I'll go with 8-5 and they'll need to win a bowl game to improve the Win column. The Vandals do return 10 starters on defense but I'll want to see proof that they're really a changed team on D.
| 58. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (WAC #5) |
2009 Results: Record: 4-8 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #73 Success: #96 Overall: #75
Not only is Louisiana Tech a lot better this year, they underachieved big time last year and should have an excellent year in the WAC.
Offense (7 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #73 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #55
New schemes on offense will result in an even stronger passing attack than suggested below.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #103 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #79
Louisiana Tech was not a passing team in 2009, but Ross Jenkins was actually quite efficient last season. Though he barely topped 2,000 passing yards against mostly easy competition, he had 20 touchdowns vs. just 6 interceptions and completed a decent 59% of his attempts. That might not be enough for the senior to keep his job, though, as Steve Ensminger may be the favorite option of new offensive coordinator Tony Franklin. Dennis Morris, by far the top receiver at 623 yards and 12 TDs is gone, but three of the next four including Cruz Williams and R.P. Stuart are back; both are suspended indefinitely as the season starts so the cupboard could potentially be bare. The offensive line allowed 27 sacks last season but that should improve a lot as only one starter is gone from the 2-deep. With a new pass-first emphasis the production will go up regardless of the targets.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #47 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #41
Daniel Porter was the star of the offense last season as he gained 1,132 yards and scored 11 touchdowns. He departs which leaves a big hole in the running game, but there are plently who can fill it as four who rushed for 150 or more yards are back and Lennon Creer from Tennessee (388 yards in '08) becomes eligible. Receiver Phillip Livas (249 yds.) and ex-WR Lyle Fitte (96 yds.) both averaged over 10 yards per carry in limited action. The offensive line loses only Ben Harris this year, while four senior starters return: Lon Roberts, Jared Miles, Rob McGill, and Cudahy Harmon. The open slot will go to part-time starter Kevin Saia and Kris Cavitt, who started half-time in 2008. The line should be much stronger and despite losing Porter overall rushing yardage could up—if the new offensive scheme is at all conducive to it.
Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #68 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #62
The Bulldogs defense probably won't see big improvement or decline in 2010.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #59 Adj. Pass Def: #72 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #39 Sacks: #78
The Bulldog defensive line returns just Matt Broha (4 sacks) and part-time starter Mason Hitt while losing star D'Anthony Smith (3.5 sacks). The situation is better at linebacker however where #1 tackler Adrien Cole returns with #3 tackler Jay Dudley. #2 Tank Calais moves the the secondary, where he's joined by Tery Carter and part-time starters Josh Victorian and Olajuwon Paige but among the losses are Deon Young who led the team with 4 interceptions. The shuffling around preserves some strength in the secondary and keeps the linebacker corps relatively strong though the D-line may be weaker.
Kicking Game: Punter Cade Glasgow averaged just 37.3 yards per punt while Matt Nelson made 12 of 16 field goals. Both are back.
Return Game: Phillip Livas made his mark as a receiver and running back last year but scored all his points as a return man. He averaged 13.4 yards per punt return and 27 per kickoff return, scoring a touchdown on each. Back for his senior season opponents should expect more of the same from him.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #104
New coach Sonny Dykes comes from Arizona by way of Texas Tech and tellingly has hired ex-Troy spread guru Tony Franklin to head the offense. In the coaching transition the recruiting class wasn't great, ranking near the bottom of the WAC. D-back Ryan Williams is probably the best of the bunch, but the biggest catch would have been ex-Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli, who was rumored to be looking at Louisiana Tech as a possible tranfer destination before Mississippi stepped up. Another quarterback, redshirt freshman Doak Raulston headed to Tennessee with coach Derek Dooley.
2009 Recap Coach Dooley built the program back into a winner in his second year here but they slipped in his third. The Bulldogs were 4-8 with wins over FCS team Nicholls State, 6-7 Hawaii, 3-10 New Mexico State, and 2-10 San Jose State. They did, however, put together perhaps the most impressive 5-game losing streak of any team last year, falling to Utah State by 2 points, 8-5 Idaho by 1, losing to undefeated Boise State by just 10, to LSU 24-16, and almost beating Fresno State (lost 30-28). Four of those games were road games. This is how a team with a Strength Power Rating of #73 finished at #96 in the Success ratings.
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LA Tech 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/4 | Sat | vs. | Grambling State | 83% | W | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | @ | Texas A&M | 33% | L | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | vs. | Navy | 52% | W | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | vs. | Southern Miss | 52% | W | |||
| 10/2 | Sat | @ | *Hawaii | 60% | W | |||
| 10/9 | Sat | vs. | *Utah State | 59% | W | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | vs. | *Idaho | 53% | W | |||
| 10/26 | Tue | @ | *Boise State | 17% | L | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | vs. | *Fresno State | 52% | W | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | @ | *New Mexico State | 79% | W | |||
| 11/27 | Sat | @ | *San Jose State | 78% | W | |||
| 12/4 | Sat | vs. | *Nevada | 53% | W | |||
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Projection Straight up: 10-2 Cumulative: 7-5
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2010 Outlook The Bulldogs may find out this year what would have happened if they'd won all those close games last season. Because they're the favorite in five very close home games, meaning they could have a great year.
Grambling State is the gimme, and Hawaii, Utah State, New Mexico State, and San Jose State look like strong wins giving them at least a 5-7 mark on the year. Then it gets interesting.
Navy and Southern Miss at both close in September, then Idaho in October, Fresno State in November and Nevada in December could all be close wins. All five are at home, otherwise they'd be the underdog in all five.
The cumulative projection is a lot more conservative, giving them seven wins, still easily good enough for a bowl game.
Texas A&M and Boise State appear to be out of reach, so 10-2 is really the team's ceiling. Giving them the easiest 5 and splitting the tough games 3-2 yields an 8-4 season which is their likely result. With the new offense and so many exciting games at home Bulldog fans should have an enjoyable year, particularly if the "Straight up" projection comes true.
| 59. Baylor Bears (Big Twelve #7; South #5) |
2009 Results: Record: 4-8 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #72 Success: #82 Overall: #73
The Bears try to escape the 4-8 trap with QB Robert Griffin back.
Offense (7 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #85 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #64
Robert Griffin returns to re-energize the deflated Bear offense.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #35 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #26
Robert Griffin was beginning to put up stellar numbers—completing 65%, 4 TDs, no interceptions—when he tore his ACL game three and redshirted. Nick Florence and Blake Szymanski took over and combined for 7 TDs and 14 INTs. Florence finished with 1,786 passing yards, giving the team close to 3,000 total; he returns and will make a solid backup to Griffin who reboots his sophomore year. Top receiver Kendall Wright (740 yards, 4 TDs) is back and while they lose David Gettis, Ernest Smith, and tight end Justin Akers (1,284 combined), starter Lanear Sampson returns with three others who had over 100 yards including 6' 6" Willie Jefferson who joins Brad Taylor at tight end. The O-line remains an issue so there may be some wrinkles to be ironed out but Griffin should pick up where he left off last season and Baylor should have a top 25-level passing attack.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #99 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #69
While the passing game still thrived (at least in yardage) without Griffin the running game suffered immensely, as his total fell from 843 in '08 to just 77 last year. He probably won't reach his former totals as the coaching staff looks to emphasize his passing and minimize the risk of re-injury, but he'll be a constant threat to reach the end zone. In his absence Jay Finley led with 370 while Jarred Salubi had 298 and averaged 6 yards a carry. Terrance Ganaway (200) averaged just 2.9. The offensive line should be comparable to last year's line, which isn't such a great thing. They lose two 3-year starters in J.D. Walton and James Barnard, but three starters—Danny Watkins, Philip Blake, and Ivory Wade—are back. With pretty much all their ground-gainers back along with Griffin's return the Bears should make a leap toward respectability in the rushing department.
Defense (5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #58 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #78
The Bears' defense will be less effective this year as stars at linebacker and safety depart.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #97 Adj. Pass Def: #32 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #33 Sacks: #65
The defensive line loses two starters but between Phil Taylor, Zac Scotton, and Tracy Robertson, there is good experience there. At linebacker they lose #1 tackler Joe Pawelek (109 tackles) and #3 Antonio Jones while #4 Antonio Johnson is back. Tim Atchison and Chance Casey return to the secondary which loses Jordan Lake and Jeremy Williams. Look for a slip in the Bears' strong pass D and an overall decline as they lose four of their top five tacklers.
Kicking Game: Punter Derek Epperson averaged 44.8 yards per punt but netted only 35.9. He's back, as is kicker Ben Parks who only hit 4 of 8 field goals last year. He lost the placekicking job to Dary Stone (5 of 6 FGs) who departs, and freshman Aaron Jones may beat him out this season.
Return Game: Terrance Williams averaged a great 24.1 yards per kickoff return; he'll be a starting wide receiver this year and Mikail Baker may reclaim his return duties. Krys Buerck, another wide receiver, handled punts and averaged 6.5 yards per return.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #39
Art Briles has created excitement in the Baylor program even while going just 8-16 in two years. Certainly Griffin has had a lot to do with that. This year's recruiting class is another good one, ranking in the middle of the Big Twelve pack. D-back Ahmad Dixon is probably the consensus blue chip in the group, and Briles even brings in another Robert Griffin—though this one is a 6' 6", 350 lb. offensive lineman.
2009 Recap Things were looking up for the Bears despite an early loss to Connecticut. They'd defeated Wake Forest and had a take-it-easy game with Division I-AA Northwestern State to look forward to. But that game spelled the end of their great hopes and dreams as Robert Griffin suffered a torn ACL. They won that game 68-13 and beat Kent State the next week, but knew there would be no competing in the Big Twelve without him. Even with him they stood little chance against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, or Texas. But they would have finished better than 1-7 in conference play. The Bears beat only Missouri to finish 4-8 for a second straight season.
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Baylor 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/4 | Sat | vs. | Sam Houston St. | 89% | W | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | vs. | Buffalo | 67% | W | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | @ | TCU | 17% | L | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | @ | Rice | 62% | W | |||
| 10/2 | Sat | vs. | *Kansas | 59% | W | |||
| 10/9 | Sat | vs. | *Texas Tech | 32% | L | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | @ | *Colorado | 48% | L | |||
| 10/23 | Sat | vs. | *Kansas State | 57% | W | |||
| 10/30 | Sat | @ | *Texas | 30% | L | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | @ | *Oklahoma State | 49% | L | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | vs. | *Texas A&M | 39% | L | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | vs. | *Oklahoma | 26% | L | |||
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Projection Straight up: 5-7 Cumulative: 6-6
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2010 Outlook With Griffin's return the offense is juiced, but it comes in a year where the defense will be less effective. So while they should finally surpass 4-8 a bowl game is not guaranteed.
Both early home games should be wins, then they face TCU on the road, a near-certain loss. Rice should be a win, as should Kansas at home and the Bears ought to be 4-1 to start if things go to plan.
The rest of the Big Twelve schedule is rough, of course. Texas Tech, Texas, and Oklahoma are probable losses, Kansas State a probable win, and Colorado and Oklahoma State tossups.
Picking winners and losers from the board gives a pretty solid 5-7 season, that is, not too much chance of falling back to 4-8. Splitting the Colorado and OK State games would be all it takes to become bowl eligible at 6-6, which is what the cumulative projection comes to. Even if Griffin catches fire it's hard to see them going past 7 or 8 wins, since there are so many good teams on the slate. Just staying healthy is all he has to do and with a bit of luck Baylor will see the post-season for the first time since 1994.
| 60. Colorado Buffaloes (Big Twelve #8; North #3) |
2009 Results: Record: 3-9 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #76 Success: #100 Overall: #76
Colorado tries again for the turnaround year that the program desperately needs.
Offense (8 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #75 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #39
The O-line will have to do a much better job this year—the entire offense is counting on it.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #41 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #24
Some say that when you have two quarterbacks you have no quarterbacks, but more and more it's looking like Colorado has one quarterback (Tyler Hansen) and a very experienced backup (Cody Hawkins). They combined last year for 2,717 yards, 18 TDs and 18 interceptions, but Hansen is more mobile, was more accurate (56% to 51%), had more yards and the better TD:int ratio (8:7). The point here is not whether either of them is that good, but that they will be improved this year, particularly Hansen who twice tried to redshirt and has yet to play a full season. The receiver situation looked good until #2 receiver Marquis Simas (585 yards) transferred, leaving only one of the top four back as tight ends Riar Geer and Patrick Dempsey (556 combined) depart. Top receiver Scotty McNight (893 yards, 6 TDs) is back and transfer Toney Clemons comes in from Michigan, but they'll have to develop some of the greener talent. Luckily the offensive line, which gave up a staggering 44 sacks (#114 in nation adj.), should be perhaps the most improved in the country and afford the QBs time to find their targets.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #104 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #84
The offensive line is also crucial to progress in the rushing game. Most of the production is back, led by Rodney Stewart (804 yards, 9 TDs). Demetrius Sumler (128 yards) is gone, as is Darrell Scott but he only ran for 95 yards so only his once-great potential will be missed. Brian Lockridge had 205 two years ago and could be the main backup after missing last year. The offensive line will no doubt do a much better job of opening holes as all five starters—and then some—return. Nate Solder, Ryan Miller, Keenan Stevans, Ethan Adkins, and Bryce Givens are back, while the line also boasts Blake Behrens and Matthew Bahr who started in 2008. As with the quarterbacks, the point is not that this O-line will be great, just that it will be far better than it was last season. Thus the pathetic rushing game of last season will still be below average, but out of the laughable zone. Just cutting down on sacks allowed will help Hansen's rushing numbers; he would easily have been the #2 rusher on the team if sack yardage were excluded.
Defense (7 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #72 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #83
Key losses hurt the defense overall but the front line should be stronger.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #73 Adj. Pass Def: #22 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #58 Sacks: #29
The Buffaloes play a lot of a 3-3-5 and all three of the defensive lineman in this formation return: Marquez Herrod (6 sacks), Curtis Cunningham, and Will Pericak. B.J. Beatty (2.5 sacks) returns at linebacker but Jeff Smart and Marcus Burton (6.5 sacks combined) do not, so the Buffs' high pass rush rating may slip a bit, especially since cornerback Cha'pelle Brown (#1 tackler, 4 sacks) is gone. So is safety Benjamin Burney but overall the secondary should be okay with three starters back, as Anthony Perkins returns with Jalil Brown and Jimmy Smith who combined for a dizzying 25 pass breakups. Only the linebacker corps looks questionable, but with five of the top eight tacklers gone the Buffs lost some of their top players.
Kicking Game: Kicker Aric Goodman hit just 10 of 18 field goals last season, while punter Matt DeLallo averaged just 38.6 per punt with a 31.9 net. Goodman is back and Zach Grossnickle takes over at punter. This is a weak area for the Buffs.
Return Game: Darrell Scott returned kickoffs (a great 26.9 average) before he left the team so fellow RB Brian Lockridge took over and averaged 23.1 with one touchdown return. Meanwhile #5 receiver Jason Espinoza fielded punts for just a 3.1 yard average. Both are back this season.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #64
Dan Hawkins has been on the hot seat almost from his first game when the Buffs fell to Montana State and finished 2-10. Three losing seasons later and it's only gotten worse. It's always bad when a struggling coach starts his son at quarterback, especially when the QB and the team do poorly. Last year Hawkins practically promised a 10-win season and of course didn't deliver. Recruiting hasn't been very great lately—the Buffs are maybe 10th in the Big Twelve this year, similar to last year—and even when they do get a super blue chip like Darrell Scott it goes wrong. Furthermore, the recent Academic Progress Rate reports penalized the football team four scholarships. What has gone right for Hawkins? Well, they got their best recruit this year by way of UCLA when blue chip wide receiver Paul Richardson was kicked off the Bruin squad along with two other freshman football players. He'll be eligible to play this season.
2009 Recap Since they play in a tough Big Twelve conference, the Buffs, when weak, aren't expected to have great results. But knowing this it means they have to take care of business in the pre-conference season. When they don't, years like 2009 can result. CU fell to both Colorado State (23-17) and Toledo (54-38) before getting their first win (Wyoming, 24-0). With two of the three best prospects for wins out of the way, the rest of the road was bound to be ugly, and it was. The Buffs upset Kansas at home 34-30 and later confounded Texas A&M, but they were playing the role of spoiler. They nearly struck again against Oklahoma State and Nebraksa but came up short and finished 3-9.
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Colorado 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/4 | Sat | N | Colorado State | 59% | W | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | @ | California | 38% | L | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | vs. | Hawaii | 66% | W | |||
| 10/2 | Sat | vs. | Georgia | 42% | L | |||
| 10/9 | Sat | @ | *Missouri | 34% | L | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | vs. | *Baylor | 53% | W | |||
| 10/23 | Sat | vs. | *Texas Tech | 31% | L | |||
| 10/30 | Sat | @ | *Oklahoma | 19% | L | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | @ | *Kansas | 52% | W | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | vs. | *Iowa State | 58% | W | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | vs. | *Kansas State | 56% | W | |||
| 11/26 | Fri | @ | *Nebraska | 24% | L | |||
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Projection Straight up: 6-6 Cumulative: 5-7
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2010 Outlook Colorado has a real chance this year to get back on the bowl game track, but they can't let the early opportunities go by. They have to beat both Colorado State and Hawaii pre-conference. California and Georgia would be cake and really show the program is back on top—but I don't think it's there yet so 2-2 will have to do. Avoiding 1-3 or 0-4 is the mission.
In the Big Twelve they probably won't beat Missouri, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, or Nebraska. That leaves four very winnable games, three of them at home. Win those and the Buffs are 6-6 and bowl bound for the first time since 2007.
The cumulative projection rounds down to five wins and since the "win" games are closer than the "loss" games, there's a good chance of a 5-7 year instead. The game at Kansas is going to be the lynchpin, I think. Colorado will probably win a close game there and become bowl eligible two weeks later against Kansas State. That's assuming they defeated Colorado State in the opener, of course. Otherwise it will be on to Nebraska with their bowl hopes on the line. Since they probably don't like that scenario it's best that they take care of business in game one.
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