The SportsRatings 2010 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams. These rankings predict how good the teams will be in 2009 before taking schedule into account, then the preview explores how well they should do given their schedule.
Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team. Two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win (straight up), and also an aggregate projection that allows for the uncertainty across a season (cumulative). The expectation for the team's season lies somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.
This installment covers teams from #51 to #55. To see the full list, click here.
| 51. Fresno State Bulldogs (WAC #2) |
2009 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Lost to Wyoming 35-28 2OT (New Mexico Bowl) Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #62 Success: #64 Overall: #65
No breakthrough year but another solid season for Pat Hill and the Bulldogs.
Offense (8 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #31 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #31
A more balanced offense but the same basic result: A lot of scoring.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #81 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #54
Ryan Colburn had a strong 2009, with nearly 2,500 yards to go with 19 touchdowns. He had 11 interceptions though, and if he slips backup Derek Carr is ready to go in. Between these two the Bulldog quarterback position is in good hands. The receiver slots are spotty with only Jamel Hamler (503 yards) back among the leaders. Gone are #1 Seyi Ajirotutu (677 yards), #3 Chastin West and #4 Marlin Moore. #5 Devon Wylie (259) yards is back and starting tight end Vince Pascoe, and Rashad Evans comes back from a redshirt year (232 yards in '08) but the targets will be fewer for Colburn. He should have a lot more time, though, as the O-line is stocked and pass protection should improve from last year's #58 rating. Look for Colburn to have a strong senior season.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #14 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #25
Ryan Matthews' 1808 yards and amazing 19 TDs powered the Fresno State offense last year. They'll miss him immensely but Robbie Rouse had a strong freshman year gaining 479 with a 5.8 average (Matthews averaged 6.6). #3 Lonyae Miller (354) departs as well, leaving a lot on Rouse's shoulders. Luckily he'll have basically the same offensive line—a year wiser—to pave the way for him that they did for Matthews. Four seniors—Andrew Jackson, Devan Cunningham, Kenny Wiggins, and Joe Bernardi join junior Bryce Harris. Just one half-time starter, Richard Pachecho, departs after sharing the Center position with Bernardi last season. While Rouse can't make up for Matthews' absence he should have a great year running behind this O-line and production should still be near top 25 level.
Defense (7 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #88 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #74
Six of Fresno State's seven returning starters are seniors.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #109 Adj. Pass Def: #29 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #81 Sacks: #120
The sad Bulldogs rushing defense should get a boost as the defensive line loses just one starter. At the end slots Chris Carter is back after notching 5 sacks and Chris Lewis returns; both are seniors. At nose tackle senior Cornell Banks and Chase McEntee combined to start the entire year. At linebacker another senior, Ben Jacobs, was the team's top tackler with 106 and Kyle Knox is back, too. They lose #3 tackler Moses Harris in the secondary but two more seniors, Desia Dunn and Lorne Bell (#2 tackler) are back. With Carter back on the D-line the team might be able to escape the NCAA cellar for sacks (adjusted for opposition) as they totalled just 11 last season.Overall five of the top six tacklers are back and the defense should make good progress.
Kicking Game: Fresno State had fantastic kickers last year, with punter Robert Malone averaging 45.2 yards and placekicker Kevin Goessling hitting 15 of 16 field goals. There were set again with Goessling returning and the nation's top high school punter coming in, but Matt Darr decommitted. Andrew Shapiro will take over instead.
Return Game: Receiver Chastin West had a 9.9 average returning punts and took one back for a touchdown; he departs but Devon Wylie (8.9 average) returns. At kick returner Rashad Evans, who fielded punts in 2008, will take over for A.J. Jefferson (23.2 average). The fielding unit is in good hands.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #76
Pat Hill continues to plug along, hoping to build toward a Boise State-like breakthrough year. He's come close a few times but tends to schedule very hard in the pre-conference portion. After an off-year in 2009 recruiting is back up near the top of the WAC, even after the loss of punter Matt Darr to Tennessee. Darr initially committed to USC but when Pete Carroll jumped ship Darr committed to Fresno State. But Bulldog special teams coach John Baxter was hired away—by USC—so Darr left again.
2009 Recap A tough early schedule almost wrecked the 2009 season but the Bulldogs righted the ship and had a good year. After beating I-AA UC Davis 51-0 FSU ran into a wall with Wisconsin (lost in double overtime), Boise State (51-34), and Cincinnati (28-21). But since all three games were close Fresno rated high in power ratings (#14 in the Strength Power Rating at 1-3) so it was clear that better times were ahead. They were. The Bulldogs won seven out of their next eight, losing only to upstart Idaho and beating Illinois in a barnburner with a crazy finish. They ended on a bad note as they were upset by Wyoming in another tight game, 35-28 in double overtime.
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Fresno State 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/4 | Sat | vs. | Cincinnati | 44% | L | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | @ | *Utah State | 53% | W | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | @ | Mississippi | 37% | L | |||
| 10/2 | Sat | vs. | Cal Poly-SLO | 76% | W | |||
| 10/9 | Sat | vs. | *Hawaii | 67% | W | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | vs. | *New Mexico State | 85% | W | |||
| 10/23 | Sat | @ | *San Jose State | 78% | W | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | @ | *Louisiana Tech | 48% | L | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | vs. | *Nevada | 54% | W | |||
| 11/19 | Fri | @ | *Boise State | 17% | L | |||
| 11/27 | Sat | vs. | *Idaho | 54% | W | |||
| 12/3 | Fri | vs. | Illinois | 58% | W | |||
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Projection Straight up: 8-4 Cumulative: 7-5
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2010 Outlook While not the breakthrough year Pat Hill would like to see, Fresno State should have another solid eight-win season.
Again they have a tough early year with Cincy and Ole Miss, meaning they should start 2-2 before the WAC season. There they can beat everyone except Boise State. Since they get Nevada at home that's probably a win, and Louisiana Tech on the road might be a loss. They finish with Illinois at home and should be able to win that game again, and a bit more easily than last year.
No game is really out of reach except Boise State (and maybe Mississippi) so they could reach double digits, but three of their wins are close games so they could fall below bowl eligibility, too. The cumulative projection sees a 7-5 year so they're pretty safe on the latter issue.
There are a lot of teams on their slate that are in flux, i.e., they may be significantly better or worse depending on many factors. Cincinnati, Mississippi, Louisiana Tech, Idaho, and Illinois are all such teams, as is Fresno State themselves. As such perhaps the cumulative estimate is more reliable. Too many close wins against unpredictable opponents makes me wary that they can reach 8 or 9 wins, but bowl eligibility should happen again.
| 52. Navy Midshipmen (Independent #2) Polls: AP #38, USA/Coaches #38 |
2009 Results: Record: 10-4 Bowl: Beat Missouri 35-13 (Texas Bowl) Poll finish: AP #28, USA #26
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #43 Success: #42 Overall: #44
Despite losses on defense Navy has an outside chance to run the table in 2010.
Offense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #58 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #58
Hardly anything changes in the Navy offense: they'll run the ball a lot and won't pass much.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #119 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #119
We don't need to spend much time on Navy's passing game as it hardly exists, and that's by design. But when the Midshipmen do pass it takes opponents by surprise. On those occasions Navy likes to go deep, so although Ricky Dobbs only completes 53% of his passes the team's per-attempt average ranked #3 in the nation. Dobbs had just over 1,000 yards of production, 6 TDs and 3 interceptions. His leading receiver Marcus Curry averaged 28.7 yards per completion but had just 10 catches, and #2 Bobby Doyle had 10 catches for 198 yards. Both are gone, Curry having been dismissed in the summer along with #3 receiver Mario Washington, who had transitioned to cornerback. That leaves the #4 and #5, Greg Jones and Mike Schupp who are the actual starting wide receivers and combined for 12 catches and 210 yards. But the O-line gave up sacks on a whopping 20% of attempts last year. It's looking like the Navy passing game may suffer a bit, but they don't have far to fall. There, we just spent WAY too much time worrying about Navy's passing game.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #3 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #2
Navy's triple-option running attack is all that really matters about the offense. They were set for a boost before Curry's dismissal; he was third on the team with 585 rushing yards. But they still have the rest of the top six and will have just as strong of an attack, as QB Dobbs' 1,203 yards and astronomical 27 touchdowns return along with fullback Vince Murray's 971 and 6. The offensive line will provide much the same in terms of run blocking as last year. Two starters, Curtis Bass and Osei Asante, depart while two others, Matt Molloy and Jeff Battipaglia, are back along with a number of part-timers. Regardless of the specifics, Navy will continue to do what it does best: eat up yards on the ground.
Defense (5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #28 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #58
Navy had a very effective defense last year but losses at linebacker leave a big hole.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #26 Adj. Pass Def: #76 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #61 Sacks: #100
Jabaree Tuani and Chase Burge return to the 3-man Navy D-line, hoping to perpetuate Navy's near-top 25 rushing defense from '09, but there's a problem at linebacker: they lose all their starters. Full-time starters Ron Pospisil (#1 tackler w/107, 4 sacks), Tony Haberer (#2 tackler), and Ram Vela (3 interceptions) are gone with half-time starters Clint Sovie and Craig Schaefer (6 sacks), leaving backup Tyler Simmons (#3 tackler) to hold down the fort. The news is better in the secondary as seniors Kevin Edwards, Wyatt Middleton (4 interceptions), and Emmett Merchant, who combined for 17 pass breakups, are all back. Obviously without the entire starting linebacking corps the defense will be less effective, but Navy won't have a bad defense by most standards.
Kicking Game: The kicking team did a great job last year, with placekicker Joe Buckley hitting all his extra point attempts and 10 of 13 field goals. Punter Kyle Delahooke averaged 43.1 yards per kick. Both are back for the Midshipmen.
Return Game: Slotback Gee Gee Greene, the team's #5 rusher last season, returned kickoffs too but averaged just 18.4 yards as a freshman. Mario Washington handled punts and had a 6.4 yard average. Greene is back but Bo Snelson is listed on the return team, while Washington was dismissed. #4 rusher Alexander Teich also returned kicks last season.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #90
Ken Niumatalolo hasn't missed a step since taking over for Paul Johnson, with 8- and 10-win seasons under his belt. Navy's recruiting is always hard to judge due to the sheer volume of players to wade through, but this year's class is a bit smaller than last year's in terms of I-A level prospects. One of them, linebacker Vinnie Mauro, is a consensus almost-blue chip player, the kind Navy rarely gets. Though last year's class ranked higher, the top four players in this year's are better in theory than any from the 2009 class.
2009 Recap Navy kicked off 2009 by losing two of three, but the first one was a morale booster when they nearly beat Ohio State in Columbus, falling 31-27. They won five straight games to go 6-2 but two were overtime (Air Force and SMU). They lost to Temple by a field goal then topped Notre Dame for only the 2nd time in 40+ years, 23-21. Travelling to Hawaii the team was surprised 24-17 but they beat rival Army 17-3 to finish 9-4 in the regular season. Matched against the Big Twelve's Missouri in the Texas Bowl they ran all over the field and won 35-13.
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Navy 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/6 | Mon | N | Maryland | 50% | W | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | vs. | Georgia Southern | 79% | W | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | @ | Louisiana Tech | 48% | L | |||
| 10/2 | Sat | @ | Air Force | 47% | L | |||
| 10/9 | Sat | @ | Wake Forest | 48% | L | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | vs. | SMU | 60% | W | |||
| 10/23 | Sat | N | Notre Dame | 45% | L | |||
| 10/30 | Sat | vs. | Duke | 56% | W | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | @ | East Carolina | 60% | W | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | vs. | Central Michigan | 57% | W | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | vs. | Arkansas State | 70% | W | |||
| 12/11 | Sat | N | Army | 56% | W | |||
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Projection Straight up: 8-4 Cumulative: 7-5
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2010 Outlook It looks like another good year for Navy and Niumatalolo, and with a little luck (ok, a lot) it could be very special.
Navy has a very easy schedule in 2010. Despite being a weaker team this year, there are seven solid wins on the slate and edging Maryland in the opener would make that eight.
Then there are the losses. Road games at Louisiana Tech, Air Force, and Wake Forest will be very close. The Notre Dame game—played in East Rutherford this year—is another close one.
Should Navy win all of those, they'll be 12-0. And none is a huge hurdle, really: Navy defeated Louisiana Tech last season 32-14; they're 2-2 against Wake Forest the last three seasons; and they've defeated Air Force the last seven games in the series. They've even taken two of the last three away from Notre Dame.
The cumulative projection gives them seven wins, enough for a bowl game. Taking the solid seven wins and splitting the others—probably a reasonable assumption—gives Navy 9 or 10 wins. I'll go with 9-3 as my "official" prediction but will be watching Navy carefully early on. They could start 1-4 and be 2-5 after Notre Dame. But if they get past an improved Maryland team in the opener and get through the road haul at 5-0, look out. The Notre Dame game becomes huge then.
| 53. Air Force Falcons (Mountain West #4) |
2009 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Beat Houston 47-20 (Armed Forces) Poll finish: AP #38, USA #39
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #32 Success: #55 Overall: #36
Air Force has had three winning seasons in a row. Now they just have to beat Navy.
Offense (5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #57 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #80
A brand new O-line causes a dip in rushing yards, which pulls the whole offense down.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #117 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #118
Tim Jefferson almost makes Air Force want to pass the ball. Unlike Connor Dietz (47% completion rate) and certainly Ben Cochran (26%), Jefferson is an accurate, reasonably efficient quarterback, completing 57% of his passes for 5 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions. Since this is Air Force, he had just 848 yards but when he's in the Falcons have a real threat that opponents must respect. Two receivers had over 100 yards and both are back: Kevin Fogler (567 yards, 5 TDs) and Jonathan Warzeka (246). The offensive line yielded just 11 sacks but that's plenty considering the number of passing plays; with 5 starters gone, QB protection could be much worse even. All things considered it's not a stretch to predict that Air Force will continue to have one of the least productive passing games in college football. But with one of the best passers they've had in recent memory, it will be interesting to see how they exploit this part of their offense.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #4 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #13
A whopping seven players on Air Force rushed for over 200 yards last season. Six are back, as Savier Stephens (#3 with 417) opted out of football for his senior season. That means star fullback Jared Tew (970 yards, 9 TDs) and tailback Asher Clark (865, 7 TDs) will again carry the load, aided by QB Dietz (369), WR Warzeka (267), QB Jefferson (254), and Nathan Walker (218). Tew gained 4.1 yards per rush but everyone else averaged over 5.0 except Jefferson (2.9 due to sacks). The offensive line runs a complicated scheme to set runners free and the line is revamped this year: 4-year starter Nick Charles, 2-year starters Peter Lusk and Chris Campbell, and Ryan Gonzales and Michael Hampton are all gone. On one hand the Falcons lose a tremendous amount of experience running their system; on the other hand, it is a system and the specific players are less important. But there's no doubt that going from five years of experience to zero is going to hurt. Air Force runs the ball so much that they'll remain a top 25 rushing team but they won't be sitting near the top with Navy this year.
Defense (5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #15 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #22
Ken Lamendola is a question mark at linebacker.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #49 Adj. Pass Def: #9 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #32 Sacks: #67
On the 3-man defensive line Air Force loses their top player, Ben Garland (4.5 sacks) but returns Rick Ricketts (4 sacks). At linebacker the situtation is unclear. The Falcons lose their top two tacklers from 2009, John Falgout (105 tackles) and Justin Moore. #3 Andre Morris returns with a number of part-time starters, one of whom is Ken Lamendola who was injured mid-season. Lamendola was the team's top tackler in 2008 and should be back some time this year, but will miss at least the first month. Though the excellent secondary loses Chris Thomas (5 interceptions), Anthony Wright (7 int) is back with Reggie Rembert and John Davis (3 int each). Overall the defense might slip a bit but will still be among the nation's best.
Kicking Game: Senior punter Keil Bartholomew will replace Brandon Geyer (43.0 average, 39.5 net) while placekicker Erik Soderberg (22 of 30 field goals) returns.
Return Game: Cornerback Reggie Rembert returned both punts and kicks, averaging 25.1 yards on the latter while fellow corner Anthony Wright handled most punts and averaged an insane 18.2 yards due to his touchdown return. Receiver Warzeka also handled kickoffs and had a 27.9 average and one touchdown return. All are back this year and this unit will continue to be a boon to the offense.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #62
Troy Calhoun has done a fantastic job at Air Force. He immediately turned them into a winner and against the odds he has kept them that way the last few seasons. Like the other service academies the Falcons recruit in bulk, with few standout players coming to the program but being culled from the masses to fit into the system. That's the story this year, too, as only a handful of players are standouts and none are blue chips. Still, Calhoun will forge winning teams with them.
2009 Recap The Falcons kicked off 2009 in style, dominating poor Nicholls State 72-0. They nearly beat Minnesota on the road but fell 20-13, then beat cupcakes New Mexico and San Diego State before the showdown with Navy. Once again they came close but lost, 16-13 in overtime, the seventh straight loss to the Midshipmen. They even played powerhouse TCU tough, losing just 20-17, and fell to Utah in overtime. Their only other loss was to BYU, giving them 5 losses—three to top 25 teams and 2 others by 10 points total. They dominated Houston in the Armed Forces Bowl by intercepting Case Keenum several times on defense, and by running the ball (surprise) well on offense.
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Air Force 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/4 | Sat | vs. | Northwestern State | 97% | W | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | vs. | *Brigham Young | 49% | L | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | @ | Oklahoma | 19% | L | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | @ | *Wyoming | 54% | W | |||
| 10/2 | Sat | vs. | Navy | 53% | W | |||
| 10/9 | Sat | vs. | *Colorado State | 62% | W | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | @ | *San Diego State | 58% | W | |||
| 10/23 | Sat | @ | *TCU | 17% | L | |||
| 10/30 | Sat | vs. | *Utah | 47% | L | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | @ | Army | 55% | W | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | vs. | *New Mexico | 83% | W | |||
| 11/18 | Thu | @ | *UNLV | 59% | W | |||
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Projection Straight up: 8-4 Cumulative: 7-5
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2010 Outlook Could this be the year that Air Force beats Navy? Perhaps. There are going to be a lot of tight games and that's just one of them.
Northwestern State is this year's opening sacrifice, then they host BYU right away in a game they could win or lose. A trip to Oklahoma follows and I doubt they'll have BYU's success from last year.
Wyoming will be tough too but the Falcons should prevail, then comes the showdown with the Midshipmen. By this point Ken Lamendola will be nearly ready to return, and I would be he makes sure he is out there. They play in Colorado Springs so the advantage goes to Air Force. It should be yet another close game in the series and though it shows as a win here Air Force might be jinxed. We'll see.
After that the Falcons have four pretty easy wins in the last seven games, one near-certain loss (TCU), and two close and important games: Utah at home and Army on the road. With only two "certain" losses the Falcons could go 10-2 but only five wins are "guaranteed" so 5-7 is almost as likely. Counting the easy wins and tossup games yields 7 or 8 wins, so take your pick between the two projections.
| 54. Michigan Wolverines (Big Ten #6) |
2009 Results: Record: 5-7 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #75 Success: #80 Overall: #74
Michigan should reach a bowl game this year but might need to win it to save RichRod.
Offense (7 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #54 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #46
One year of experience should do wonders for Michigan's quarterbacks.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #67 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #46
Tate Forcier was reasonably productive as Michigan's quarterback in 2009, passing for 2,050 yards and 13 TDs. But he had 10 interceptions, too, and was so underwhelming that many wished that Denard "Shoelace" Robinson would take over. The competition is open in the fall but Robinson—a great, fast runner—has to have improved his accuracy (45% for 2 TDs and 4 ints) to win the job. Two of the three top receivers are back; Roy Roundtree and Martaveous Odoms (706 yards combined) are back while #2 Greg Matthews moves on. Three others topped 199 yards including starting tight end Kevin Kroger. The offensive line allowed 28 sacks—#61 when corrected for opponents—and QB protection will still be an issue this year. But with their two freshman quarterbacks turning sophomores this year, things can only get a lot better for the Wolverines.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #43 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #53
Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown led the Wolverine ground attack, combining for 982 yards and 12 touchdowns. Both depart leaving QB Robinson the leading returning rusher with 351 (5.1 average). Vincent Smith (#4 with 276) tore his ACL last November but has recovered and should be in the running to start along with Michael Shaw (185 yds) and redshirt freshman Fitzgerald Toussaint. The offensive line is in decent shape. They lose Mark Ortmann and David Moosman but Stephen Schilling returns with Perry Dorrestein and Mark Huyge, and '08 starter David Molk is back. The line should be a bit better than last year but with their top two runners gone they might slip a bit.
Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #84 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #85
Lots of talent back but due to a key loss and recent injury the defense may spin its wheels.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #96 Adj. Pass Def: #53 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #66 Sacks: #61
While Mike Martin and Ryan Van Bergen (6 sacks) do return to the 3-man defensive line, the loss of Brandon Graham more than offsets that. Graham recorded 10.5 sacks and an additional 15.5 tackles for loss, and without him the already mediocre pass rush will be severely below par. Speaking of below par, that's what Michigan's rushing defense was last season, and a move to a 3-3-5 might not be the best answer but three linebackers—Obi Ezeh, Jonas Mouton, and Craig Roh—return. They lose #1 tackler Stevie Brown, however. Safety Mike Williams move to the "spur" position, and Jordan Kovacs is back in the secondary but Donovan Warren (4 interceptions) and Brandon Smith are gone and cornerback Troy Woolfolk was severly injured in fall camp and is very likely out for the year. In all 11 of the top 15 tacklers are back for the Wolverines but the loss of Graham harms both the rushing and passing defense.
Kicking Game: Michgan must replace both punter Zoltan Mesko (44.5 average) and Jason Olesnavage (11 of 15 field goals). Two freshman, Will Hagerup and Brandan Gibbons will take over so there is some concern in replacing two solid kickers.
Return Game: Kick return ace Darryl Stonum is back after recording a 25.7 yard average with one touchdown return. Fellow receiver Junior Hemingway returned punts and averaged 8.6 yards per attempt.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #16
Rich Rodriguez has put together two losing seasons at Ann Arbor and many are calling for his head already. Various NCAA investigations about overpractice have only added to the fire. But winning would solve everything. Recruiting was down a bit this year from Michigan's top ten standards and some say it's due to uncertainty with Rodriguez' position. But few teams recruit in the top ten every year and the Wolverines got their share of great players this year, starting with quarterback Devin Gardner who is close to being one of the nation's most elite recruits. About a dozen others are consensus blue chips but one of those, d-back Demar Dorsey, was not admitted due to past law trouble.
2009 Recap Michigan started strong, topping 2008's 3 wins in the first four games. But starting with an overtime loss at Michigan State things began to go wrong. They played Iowa tough but lost but were 5-2 after feasting on Delaware State. But Penn State beat them soundly, as did Illinois who was having a terrible year. In all they lost their last five games and finished a dismal 1-7 in the Big Ten, and a season that looked like a turnaround had gone sour.
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Michigan 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/4 | Sat | vs. | Connecticut | 49% | L | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | @ | Notre Dame | 42% | L | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | vs. | Massachusetts | 66% | W | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | vs. | Bowling Green | 77% | W | |||
| 10/2 | Sat | @ | *Indiana | 59% | W | |||
| 10/9 | Sat | vs. | *Michigan State | 49% | L | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | vs. | *Iowa | 41% | L | |||
| 10/30 | Sat | @ | *Penn State | 37% | L | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | vs. | *Illinois | 58% | W | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | @ | *Purdue | 53% | W | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | vs. | *Wisconsin | 34% | L | |||
| 11/27 | Sat | @ | *Ohio State | 25% | L | |||
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Projection Straight up: 5-7 Cumulative: 6-6
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2010 Outlook If Michigan can win the close games this year they'll be fine. If not, they could fall short of a bowl game again and suffer their third straight losing season.
The two tightest games on the slate look like the opener against UConn and rival Michigan State in October. Both are at home, and if you give Michigan a heftier-than-normal home field advantage—not unreasonable—they should win both of those along with five others on the board and go 7-5.
The other five games run the gamut from winnable (Notre Dame and Iowa) to unlikely (Penn State and Wisconsin) and very doubtful (Ohio State).
Since the most winnable are on the road, it doesn't seem likely that Michigan will get more than seven wins this year. And seven wins requires a number of tossup games to go their way. The cumulative projection calls for a 6-6 year and that's where I think Michigan will end up—no longer shut out of a bowl game, but needing a win to avoid another losing season.
| 55. Nevada Wolf Pack (WAC #3) Polls: USA/Coaches #49 |
2009 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Lost to SMU 45-10 (Hawaii Bowl) Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #55 Success: #70 Overall: #55
Another year of impressive rushing gains for Nevada, and more gaudy passing gains for their opponents.
Offense (9 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #20 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #17
Expect more domination via the rushing game from Nevada.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #110 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #84
Though Nevada's passing game isn't what's important, Colin Kaepernick is a capable passer and was very efficient last year, topping 2,000 yards with a 20 to 6 TD:int ratio. The four top receivers are back again, consisting of starters Brandon Wimberly, Tray Session, Chris Wellington, and tight end Virgil Green. Combined, they had 1,688 receiving yards and 14 touchdown receptions. The line allowed just 12 sacks in '09. All things considered if they want to ramp up the passing attack they can.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #1 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #1
Nevada's bread, butter, milk, and eggs is the running game. Last year I boldly predicted that a college football team would have three 1,000 yard rushers for the first time, and I was right—I just picked the wrong team (USC). Incredibly, Vai Taua (1,345 yards), QB Kaepernick (1,183), and Luke Lippincott (1,034) all did the deed, each averaging north of 7 yards per carry and totalling 35 touchdowns. Another four added close to another 1,000 so even as Lippincott departs the cupboard is hardly bare. The O-line that paved the way for all this madness loses two key starters, Alonzo Durham and Kenneth Ackerman while John Bender, Chris Barker, and Steve Haley return. Without Lippincott the Pack won't have three over 1,000 again and they'll see a decline in their per-game yardage, but they were so far ahead that they'll still be #1.
Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #89 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #96
The Wolf Pack will continue to struggle against the pass.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #43 Adj. Pass Def: #117 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #118 Sacks: #50
The defensive line loses two starters including Kevin Basped who had 9.5 sacks last season. But two return: Zack Mononick, and Dontay Moch who had 6.5 sacks and an additional 13.5 tackles for loss, while Ryan Coulson started several games. Returning at linebacker are Brandon Marshall and James-Michael Johnson who combined for 18 tackles for loss. The secondary loses top tackler Jonathon Amaya and Mo Harvey along with Antoine Thomas. Isaiah Frey and half-time starter Doyle Miller are back but the Pack's weak area will remain thus, particularly with the loss of Basped on the pass rush.
Kicking Game: Punter Brad Langley (41.1 average) and kicker Ricky Drake (6 of 9 field goals) both return as seniors for the Wolf Pack.
Return Game: Mike Ball had an excellent 24.8 yard average on kick returns while Antoine Thompson had a total of 4 punt return yards on 9 attempts. It shouldn't be hard for freshman Rishard Mathews to top that this season.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #79
Chris Ault's upteenth recruiting class ranks up there with the best in the WAC this year. There's not much agreement about who the best prospects are, but juco DeAndre Boughton is already a starting linebacker for the team.
2009 Recap Before the Wolf Pack got their running game really going they dropped three opening games to Notre Dame, Colorado State, and Missouri. Once they started racking up ground yardage they took off, winning eight in a row until they met up with Boise State and were stopped again. They were minus two of their three 1,000 yard rushers (both the running backs) against SMU and were spanked 45-10 in the Hawaii bowl as their terrible pass D came back to haunt them. In general when they played a good team they lost, but they did beat Idaho (70-45) and Fresno State (52-14).
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Nevada 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/2 | Thu | vs. | E. Washington | 66% | W | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | vs. | Colorado State | 61% | W | |||
| 9/17 | Fri | vs. | California | 45% | L | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | @ | Brigham Young | 43% | L | |||
| 10/2 | Sat | @ | UNLV | 59% | W | |||
| 10/9 | Sat | vs. | *San Jose State | 84% | W | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | @ | *Hawaii | 61% | W | |||
| 10/30 | Sat | vs. | *Utah State | 59% | W | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | @ | *Idaho | 47% | L | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | @ | *Fresno State | 47% | L | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | vs. | *New Mexico State | 88% | W | |||
| 11/26 | Fri | vs. | *Boise State | 23% | L | |||
| 12/4 | Sat | @ | *Louisiana Tech | 47% | L | |||
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Projection Straight up: 7-6 Cumulative: 7-6
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2010 Outlook Nevada plays 13 games this season and can really only be counted out of one of them, Boise State—and they have played the Broncos very tough in the past.
Between the opening home contests against I-AA Eastern Washington and Colorado State to a four-game stretch consisting of UNLV and WAC cellar-dwellers, to a home date with New Mexico State, there are seven should-be wins on the schedule.
The cumulative projection also works out to 7-6, given the odds of getting an upset/being upset here and there.
But despite this agreement, 7 is likely to be a minimum win total for the Wolf Pack in 2010. Those seven wins are fairly solid, and five other games are close to wins. Maybe they won't beat Cal at home, or BYU on the road, but they also have Idaho, Fresno State, and Louisiana Tech (all on the road) to choose from. Out of those five, they'll almost certainly get one or two wins (or maybe three, but lose one of the games they should win). So I'd look for an 8-5 or 9-4 season from Nevada this year. It's still possible that they could falter and go 6-7, but it's just as likely that they get 10 wins. Expect a strong winning season from the Wolf Pack if everything goes well this year.
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