The SportsRatings 2010 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams. These rankings predict how good the teams will be in 2009 before taking schedule into account, then the preview explores how well they should do given their schedule.
Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team. Two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win (straight up), and also an aggregate projection that allows for the uncertainty across a season (cumulative). The expectation for the team's season lies somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.
This installment covers teams from #46 to #50. To see the full list, click here.
| 46. BYU Cougars (Mountain West #3) Polls: AP #34 USA/Coaches #28 |
2009 Results: Record: 11-2 Bowl: Beat Oregon St. 44-20 (Las Vegas) Poll finish: AP #12, USA #12
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #22 Success: #12 Overall: #21
Can BYU have another 10-win season without their offensive stars?
Offense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #16 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #40
Max Hall, Harvey Unga, and Dennis Pitta all depart. Need we say more?
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #13 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #44
Max Hall threw for over 3,000 yards for three straight years, with 3,560 last year to go with 33 touchdown passes. He completed 67% of his passes as well. Not an easy act to follow, but freshman Jake Heaps and last year's backup Riley Nelson (10 attempts last season) will battle for the right to do so. Worse, they won't have star tight end Dennis Pitta (#1 receiver with 829 yards, 8 TDs) as a target, nor backup tight end Andrew George (#3 receiver, 408 yards). But there were a lot of yards to go around and McKay Jacobson, Luke Ashworth, and O'Neill Chambers combined for over 1,300 yards and are back with several others who caught a dozen or more tosses. The offensive line did a good job last year (23 sacks) considering how often BYU throws and they'll be stronger. But there's bound to be a decline without Hall and Pitta and it might be a big one.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #71 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #83
There was a notion that, if the passing game was put on hiatus while the new quarterback learned the ropes, then the BYU rushing attack with Harvey Unga could pick up the slack. Well, not so much anymore. Unga withdrew from school due to "honor code violations" apparently stemming from admitting he had pre-marital sex, a BYU no-no (his girlfriend withdrew for the same honor code reason). Just like that he was in the supplemental draft and BYU is without the third main cog in their offense and his 1,087 yards and 11 TDs. Another stalwart, fullback Manase Tonga (148 yards) is gone, too. Backup RB J.J. Di Luigi had 248 and Bryan Kariya 199 and both should do well behind the strong offensive line as it returns four starters. R.J. Willing is gone but Nick Alletto, Terrence Brown, Matt Reynolds, and Braden Hansen are all back. BYU didn't emphasize the running game much so any decline won't hurt much, but it would have been nice to see Harvey Unga rush for 1,000 yards for a fourth straight season.
Defense (5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #39 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #79
Losses to the "3" and the "4" of the 3-4 defense are extensive.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #25 Adj. Pass Def: #51 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #35 Sacks: #58
The Cougar defense loses two starters (really 2 1/2) from the 3-man front including Jan Jorgenson (6 sacks). Romney Fuga returns after starting the 2nd half of the season, and 2007 starter Kalama Kaluhiokalani is back from a mission. Among the linebackers only Jordan Pendleton is back, meaning the entire front seven has at most two starters from 2009. The secondary is relatively loaded, however, with #1 tackler Andrew Rich (4 interceptions), Brandon Bradley, and Brian Logan (14 pass breakups), all seniors. Overall they lose five of their seven top tacklers and the rushing defense will be tested this season.
Kicking Game: Mitch Payne (10 of 14 field goals) and Riley Stephenson (41.3 yard average) are back to placekick and punt for the Cougars.
Return Game: Receiver O'Neill Chambers handles most of the return chores, and averaged 6.0 yards per punt but an impressive 25.6 per kickoff return last season.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #21
Bronco Mendenhall has BYU on a four-year streak of double-digit wins. Once again he's on top of the Mountain West in recruiting, this time with unusually excellent class. Probably the top three in the class are quarterback Jake Heaps who may start this year; wide receiver Ross Apo; and defensive end Bronson Kaufusi. All three are consensus blue chips.
2009 Recap The year started with a bang and had people wondering if BYU was going to be in a BCS bowl game. They went into Oklahoma (well, Arlington, but close enough) and came out with a 14-13 win after knocking Sam Bradford out of the game. They demolished Tulane 54-3 which only added to their hype. But the very next week they got the stuffing knocked out of them by FSU 54-28 at home. The BCS dream was over just like that. They won out the rest of the way—save for a 38-7 loss to TCU—and with a 26-23 overtime win vs. Utah they took 2nd place in the Mountain West. In the Las Vegas Bowl for the fifth straight time they stuffed Oregon State 44-20, further adding to the recent tally of MWC wins over the Pac-10.
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BYU 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/4 | Sat | vs. | Washington | 43% | L | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | @ | *Air Force | 51% | W | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | @ | Florida State | 35% | L | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | vs. | Nevada | 57% | W | |||
| 10/1 | Fri | @ | Utah State | 57% | W | |||
| 10/9 | Sat | vs. | *San Diego State | 67% | W | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | @ | *TCU | 21% | L | |||
| 10/23 | Sat | vs. | *Wyoming | 64% | W | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | vs. | *UNLV | 69% | W | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | @ | *Colorado State | 60% | W | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | vs. | *New Mexico | 86% | W | |||
| 11/27 | Sat | @ | *Utah | 44% | L | |||
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Projection Straight up: 8-4 Cumulative: 7-5
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2010 Outlook Without their three stars on offense and losing a lot on defense, it doesn't appear than another 10+ win season is in the cards. But another trip to the Las Vegas Bowl is still in play.
BYU will run into trouble early, hosting Washington and traveling to Air Force and Florida State. They'll be lucky to emerge 1-2, but if they do any better than that they'll know they're on the right track.
Three wins should follow, then another loss to TCU. Four more wins, and a loss at Utah. In other words, a lot like last year but without the big win at the beginning nor a win over the Utes.
There are seven pretty solid wins here so a bowl game is almost a lock save an unexpected meltdown. Win the Air Force tossup and they're at 8 wins. The cumulative projection ignores all that and barely rounds itself up to 7-5. To get to ten wins they'd need a few upsets and/or a bowl win. It's not out of the question as Washington and Utah are beatable, but they are a lot of questions BYU needs to address. We'll probably have a good idea as to whether they've done their homework by late September.
| 47. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (Big East #5) |
2009 Results: Record: 9-4 Bowl: Beat UCF 45-21 (St. Petersburg) Poll finish: AP #31, USA #39
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #47 Success: #40 Overall: #46
Looks like another 7 to 8 win season, which is the new normal for Rutgers football.
Offense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #59 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #62
A marginally better passing and running game aren't enough to lift Rutgers' offensive ranking.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #104 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #95
Quarterback Tom Savage had decent numbers (2,211 yards, 14 TDs, 7 int) except for his 52% completion rate. But he was a true freshman last season so that can be forgiven. He'll be much more seasoned as a sophomore, but he won't have the same targets as last year. Leading receiver and deep threat Tim Brown (1,150 yards and 9 touchdowns, 20.9 yds/reception) is gone, but fellow true sophomore Mohamed Sanu is back after collecting 639 yards on 51 catches. Starting tight end D.C. Jefferson is among the other returnees, but the summer has brought some surprises. First, Julian Hayes didn't return for a fifth season. Then projected starter Tim Wright got a medical redshirt. And his backup, Mark Harrison, might be out after a head injury. The offensive line gave up 40 sacks last year and it might not get any better. The only silver lining there is that Savage will know exactly what to expect after dealing with it last year. Despite all the drawbacks, Savage will improve his production, but don't expect anything too amazing.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #84 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #78
Joe Martinek didn't quite get a 1,000 yard season, falling 33 yards short. He also had 9 touchdown runs. The real find last year once again was wide receiver Sanu, who rushed for 346 yards with a 5.6 average, mostly out of a wildcat formation. The offensive line loses three 3-year starters: Anthony Davis, a 1st round NFL pick; Kevin Haslam; and Ryan Blaszczyk. That's bad but at least in addition to Howard Barbieri and Art Forst, Caleb Ruch who started in 2008 comes back from injury. So in some ways it's like having three starters return, though the losses certainly outweigh those retained. Again, better production might happen despite the O-line's decline.
Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #33 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #50
Good backups fill the gaps and prevent the defense from declining too much.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #18 Adj. Pass Def: #88 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #62 Sacks: #11
In 2009 Rutgers' rushing defense and quarterback pressure were both excellent. The defensive line returns three starters, Charlie Noonan, Scott Vallone, and Alex Silvestro (10 tackles for loss). They lose George Johnson's 6.5 sacks but his replacement, Jonathan Freeny, had 9.5. At linebacker #1 tackler Damaso Munoz is gone along with Ryan D'Imperio, while Antonio Lowery returns. Devin McCourty (10 pass breakups) is one of two starters gone from the secondary while David Rowe and Joe Lefeged return. Overall Rutgers loses their top four tacklers.
Kicking Game: Kicker San San Te hit just 18 of 28 field goals (3 of 10 past the 40), while Ted Dellaganna averaged 42.3 yards per punt. Both are back this year.
Return Game: Safety Joe Lefeged (32.4) and corner Devin McCourty (25.4) both stoked their kickoff return averages by taking one back for a touchdown. Lefeged is back along with punt returner Sanu, who averaged just 3.9 per punt return but is sure to get his TD return sometime soon.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #64
Greg Schiano has stayed with the Scarlet Knights despite everyone's best efforts to lure him away. After a 7-5 year in 2005 led to an 11-2 season in 2006, he's been able to maintain the program's momentum with 8- and 9-win seasons since. There's been some attrition that has reduced this year's class' rank and it doesn't compare with last season's near-top 25 class, but it's still competitive for the Big East. Brandon Coleman, a 6' 6" wide receiver from Forestville, MD, is a consensus blue chip and could start this year due to the issues Rutgers is having with wide receivers lately.
2009 Recap It took the Knights a while to impress anyone in 2009. Losing the opener to Cincinnati 47-15 didn't help. They won four straight but their victims were two I-AA teams, Florida International, and a broken Maryland squad. They lost to Pitt and beat Army to stand 5-2 but had failed to impress. Then they beat UConn 28-24, and followed it up with a 31-0 win over South Florida and suddenly Rutgers was 7-2 with momentum. Maybe it went to their heads as they were crushed the next week by Syracuse of all teams, 31-13. They beat Louisville then finished the year with a loss to West Virginia, 24-21 and were 8-4 but in all but one case they'd failed to win the big game. Somewhat surprisingly they "showed up" for their bowl game and manhandled Central Florida 45-24, giving the team 9 wins on the season.
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Rutgers 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/2 | Thu | vs. | Norfolk State | 86% | W | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | @ | Florida International | 72% | W | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | vs. | North Carolina | 36% | L | |||
| 10/2 | Sat | vs. | Tulane | 90% | W | |||
| 10/8 | Fri | vs. | *Connecticut | 49% | L | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | N | Army | 60% | W | |||
| 10/23 | Sat | @ | *Pittsburgh | 38% | L | |||
| 11/3 | Wed | @ | *South Florida | 47% | L | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | vs. | *Syracuse | 59% | W | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | @ | *Cincinnati | 41% | L | |||
| 11/26 | Fri | vs. | *Louisville | 69% | W | |||
| 12/4 | Sat | @ | *West Virginia | 39% | L | |||
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Projection Straight up: 6-6 Cumulative: 7-5
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2010 Outlook It looks like Rutgers might have another typical 8-win season this year—if they win their fifth bowl game in a row.
Rutgers doesn't play two FCS teams this year but Tulane nearly counts along with Norfolk State. Add in FIU and you have three guaranteed wins out of the first four games. The other game is UNC, so count on a 3-1 start.
Then comes a pivotal game against UConn. If they can win that they'll be 5-1 after playing Army in East Rutherford. The Big East season doesn't look promising but they should beat Syracuse and Louisville, and maybe South Florida.
Added up, there are six wins, or somewhere in the 6-8 range depending on whether Rutgers overcomes some of its issues this season (O-line, defense). But for the most part I think 7-5 is accurate, and the cumulative projection agrees. Six of the wins are pretty solid and the the UConn game and South Florida games might be split. Another year, another winning season and a bowl game. Even some Rutgers fans are getting jaded and impatient for Schiano take the program to the next level. Still, I don't think we'll see firegregschiano.com any time soon.
| 48. South Florida Bulls (Big East #6) Polls: USA/Coaches #45 |
2009 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Beat N. Illinois 27-3 (International) Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #49 Success: #41 Overall: #47
Stronger on offense but weaker on D, USF remains about the same under new coach Skip Holtz.
Offense (8.5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #77 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #54
A stronger offensive line will aid B.J. Daniels as he leads the USF offense
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #97 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #71
When perenniel starter Matt Grothe went out with an ACL tear early last season freshman B.J. Daniels stepped in and did an admirable job under the conditions. He couldn't match Grothe's completion rate (54% to 73%), he had far fewer passing yards per game (1,983 in 10 games) and he threw 9 interceptions to go with his 14 touchdowns. But he ran the ball as well as Grothe and when he led the team to a win over Florida State the fans were sold on him. Daniels returns but there are issues in the receiver corps. Top gained Carlton Mitchell (708 yards) is gone, and #2 and #4 A.J. Love (489) and Sterling Griffin (265) are out with injuries for up to half the season. Senior Dontavia Bogan (305) is back and tight end Kevin Gidrey comes in from East Carolina and is eligible this year. The offensive line ranked 108th in quarterback protection last year but will be a whole lot better as nearly all starters return. So there should be a substantial improvement in the passing game but it won't all take effect until mid-year when the receiving corps is at full strength.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #42 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #32
QB Daniels, like Grothe before him, ended up the team's rushing leader with 772 yards and 9 TDs. Running back Moise Plancher finished #2 with 581 yards, while Mike Ford (450) was kicked off the team not too long after coach Holtz arrived. Daniels and Plancher will be operating behind a much better O-line as four starters return. Sampson Genus, Jacob Sims, Chaz Hine, and Jeremiah Warren—all upperclassmen—return while Jamar Bass and Mark Popek (out first two? games with knee) filled in as a part-time starters last year. Only Zach Hermann departs, due to neck problems that forced an early end to his career. While the run blocking should be better a substantial part of the production increase may come from reducing the 250+ sack yards the team gave up in '09.
Defense (4 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #22 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #45
Big losses—including stalwart George Selvie—leave the Bull defense weaker.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #30 Adj. Pass Def: #36 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #24 Sacks: #41
George Selvie started for three years and never matched his unreal 2007 stats since he was a marked man and double-teamed constantly. That left Jason Pierre-Paul to do the damage, as he racked up 6.5 sacks and another 10 tackles for loss. Both are gone this year, leaving a big void in the defensive line. Terrell McClain is back to anchor the new line but a decrease and sacks and a slip in rushing defense is inevitable. Particularly because the Bulls only return one of three starting linebackers, Sabbath Joseph as top tackler Kion Wilson departs. The secondary loses Nate Allen and Jerome Murphy who had 4 interceptions each, but Quenton Washington returns with half-time starters Jerrell Young and Kayvon Webster. Overall the team loses its four top tacklers and six of the top seven.
Kicking Game: Delbert Alvarado handled both punting (40.6 average) and placekicking but made just 1 of 5 field goal attempts so Eric Schwartz (11 of 16) took over. Schwartz is back but Alvarado is gone and taking over punting chores will be soph Justin Brockhaus-Kann.
Return Game: Faron Hornes had just a 5.0 yard average on punt returns, while fellow receiver Dontavia Bogan had better results on kickoffs with a 21.4 average. Both are back.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #58
Jim Leavitt guided the program into Division I-A but fell victim to somewhat similar circumstances as Mark Mangino at Kansas with regard to "player abuse." Skip Holtz was brought in from East Carolina and while recruiting understandably slipped during the transition the class is still in the middle of the pack in the Big East. Blue chip D-back Terrence Mitchell from Tampa is the class' prize, but Holtz added value by bringing transfer Kevin Gidrey (TE/RB) from East Carolina; he got a waiver to be eligible this year.
2009 Recap USF had another typical recent season: go undefeated early, then struggle. In 2007-8, the Bulls were 11-0 early (combined) and finished 5-8. In 2009 they started 5-0, beating such powerhouses as Wofford, Western Kentucky, Charleston Southern, and Syracuse early. To be fair they did upset Florida State too. Then the losses started, first with Cincy and Pitt, then Rutgers, and later Miami and UConn. Finishing 7-5, the Bulls blasted Northern Illinois 27-3 in the International Bowl.
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USF 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/4 | Sat | vs. | Stony Brook | 81% | W | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | @ | Florida | 25% | L | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | vs. | Western Kentucky | 75% | W | |||
| 10/2 | Sat | vs. | Florida Atlantic | 73% | W | |||
| 10/9 | Sat | vs. | *Syracuse | 58% | W | |||
| 10/14 | Thu | @ | *West Virginia | 38% | L | |||
| 10/22 | Fri | @ | *Cincinnati | 41% | L | |||
| 11/3 | Wed | vs. | *Rutgers | 54% | W | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | @ | *Louisville | 63% | W | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | vs. | *Pittsburgh | 44% | L | |||
| 11/27 | Sat | @ | Miami (Florida) | 30% | L | |||
| 12/4 | Sat | vs. | *Connecticut | 49% | L | |||
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Projection Straight up: 6-6 Cumulative: 6-6
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2010 Outlook This season the trend of being 5-0 or 6-0 early will probably come to a halt. Not that they can't beat the usual cupcakes foes Stony Brook, Western Kentucky, FAU, and Syracuse. But someone messed up and put Florida in there. Now it's true that USF has had at least one upset in the mix the last three years: Auburn and West Virginia in 2007, Kansas in 2008, and FSU in '09. So maybe Florida is walking into a trap.
Either way, the late season "collapse" will happen again, just because that's when most of the tough games are. West Virginia, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Miami all appear to be losses. Depending on the UConn game and it leaves the Bulls 6-6 or 7-5. Both are about equal odds, but since the wins are narrower than the losses the 6-6 cumulative projection is much more likely to come true than an 8-4 record.
But if the Bulls do upset the Gators (they play in the Swamp), it will only make matters worse when the hype gets out of hand once again before the inevitable fall. Unless Skip Holtz has something up sleeve, but seeing East Carolina go through the hype in early 2008 makes me think he doesn't have the answers either.
| 49. Central Florida Knights (C-USA #2; East #1) Polls: AP #46 |
2009 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Lost to Rutgers 45-21 (St. Petersburg Bowl) Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #63 Success: #59 Overall: #63
How good can the Knights be in 2010? How about 11-1?
Offense (7 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #84 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #77
The return of Brynn Harvey is important for the advancement of the offense this year.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #77 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #83
Rob Calabrese has put in some valuable time at quarterback the last few years which should serve him well when he takes over for Brett Hodges (2,438 yards, 17 TDs, 13 int) this year. Calabrese completed only 54% last year for 260 yards, but that's miles better than the 39% he had for 2008. To his credit his TD:int ratio has always been good and last year it was 3:0. Nearly the full complement of receivers is back including Kamar Aiken (610 yards, 9 TDs), A.J. Guyton (572), and starting tight end Adam Nissley as only #3 Rocky Ross departs among the six who had over 100 yards. The offensive line should improve on its 33 sacks allowed (#100 in FBS adjusted). Overall the passing game will slide but not too much.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #90 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #59
Brynn Harvey's spring knee injury became a pivotal issue for the team, given that he was responsible for 1,109 yards and 14 touchdowns last season. Right now it looks as though Harvey will be out about 3 games. For those games Johnathan Davis (310 yards) will be a capable replacement, with immediately-eligible Iowa transfer Jeff Brinson another option. With the offensive line in great shape it shouldn't matter too much who carries the ball (within reason of course). Ian Bustillo is the only full-time starter gone, as Cliff McRay, Jah Reid, and Nick Pieschel are back with part-time starters Theo Goins and Abre Leggins. With everyone back—most importantly Harvey at some point—ground production will increase.
Defense (7 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #44 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #26
Six of the top seven tacklers are back, including the team's sack and interception leaders.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #7 Adj. Pass Def: #113 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #108 Sacks: #6
Central Florida had a stifling rushing defense last year and this year should be nearly as good. They also had a dominant pass rush and continuing that is questionable as they lose Jarvis Geather (11 sacks) but return Bruce Miller (13 sacks). Starter David Williams also returns to the line. The linebacking corps is loaded despite the loss of #1 tackler Cory Hogue (103 tackles, 9.5 for loss). The #2 and #3 tacklers, Derrick Hallman and Lawrence Young (10 tackles for loss) are back and 2008 starter Chance Henderson returns from a redshirt year. In addition, Michael Dominguez who started at Florida International in 2008 is eligible this season. All of the returnees above are seniors, so there are six seniors with full-year I-A starting experience in the UCF front seven. In the secondary Kemal Ishmael, Josh Robinson (6 interceptions), and Justin Boddie are back, hoping to improve the defense's real weak area, the pass defense. Between the returning sack leader, the talent at linebacker, and three starters back in the secondary the pass defense should be much better, and with it the overall D.
Kicking Game: Nick Cattoi made a respectable 14 of 20 field goals in 2009, while Blake Clingan averaged only 37.3 yards per punt (though his net was 35.5). Both are back this season.
Return Game: A.J. Guyton averaged 10.8 yards per punt return, while fellow WR Quincy McDuffie had 24.2 per kickoff and returned one for a touchdown. Darin Baldwin also got into the act with a 27.2 average. All three are back.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #70
George O'Leary has alternated between winning and losing seasons since he took over at Central Florida. Always a controversial figure since the Notre Dame credentials debacle, he was further under scrutiny in the off-season when the NCAA put UCF on probation citing "major violations" consisting of improper phone calls and text messages to recruits. Well it must have worked since UCF ranks near the top of the C-USA in recruiting this year. Miami-area recruits Torrian Wilson (O-line) and Joshua Reese (receiver) are among the near-blue chips O'Leary signed this round.
2009 Recap UCF started with a thud as they barely beat Samford, 28-24 and lost to Southern Miss. They alternated wins and losses for the first half of the season until they finally got two in a row with Rice (49-7) and Marshall (21-20). The Knights lost to Texas 35-3 but upset Houston 37-32 the next week. An 8-4 record pitted them against Rutgers who walloped them in the St. Petersburg Bowl 45-24.
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UCF 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/4 | Sat | vs. | South Dakota | 76% | W | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | vs. | North Carolina State | 57% | W | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | @ | Buffalo | 62% | W | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | @ | Kansas State | 54% | W | |||
| 10/6 | Wed | vs. | *UAB | 60% | W | |||
| 10/13 | Wed | @ | *Marshall | 58% | W | |||
| 10/23 | Sat | vs. | *Rice | 75% | W | |||
| 10/30 | Sat | vs. | *East Carolina | 68% | W | |||
| 11/5 | Fri | @ | *Houston | 42% | L | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | vs. | *Southern Miss | 55% | W | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | @ | *Tulane | 84% | W | |||
| 11/27 | Sat | @ | *Memphis | 69% | W | |||
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Projection Straight up: 11-1 Cumulative: 8-4
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2010 Outlook If UCF continues their pattern of winning and losing seasons then the Knights won't be going to a bowl game this year (I won't guess whether going 6-6 and losing in a bowl game counts or not). But it's likely that they'll buck the trend in 2010.
UCF gets only marginally better this season but it's enough—coupled with a friendly schedule—to make them the favorite in every game except one this year.
Not only that, but just a handful of the wins are close: Kansas State, maybe Southern Miss, possibly North Carolina State, UAB, and Marshall. In other words there are six very solid wins so the on/off pattern will be broken.
Beyond that it's hard to say. The cumulative projection conservatively says they'll repeat last year's record, which is fair enough. But if we assume the Knights are going to lose to Houston on the road, then the corresponding wins over UAB and Marshall have to be assumed, too. That makes 8 wins with three tossup games left. So I'm guessing that UCF will go either 9-3 or 10-2 this year. Either way the alternating good/bad years syndrome will be thrown out as temporary coincidence after the 2010 season.
| 50. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (C-USA #3; East #2) |
2009 Results: Record: 7-6 Bowl: Lost to M. Tenn. 42-32 (New Orleans Bowl) Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #67 Success: #75 Overall: #68
The offense slips without key personnel but the defense should make up for that.
Offense (3 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #40 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #78
Losing their perennial rushing leaders and a weakened O-line hurts the Eagles.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #55 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #64
When Austin Davis fell to injury early last season he had a great 10:2 TD:int ratio. Martaveous Young took over and was just as good on that stat, throwing 16 touchdown passes against just 3 interceptions. The two combined for over 3,000 passing yards. Davis' completion rate (69%) outshined Young's (57%) and he will have his starting job back this fall, but everyone is reassured that there is a more than capable backup in the house if needed. The situation at receiver isn't as golden, despite the return of top dog DeAndre Brown (785 yards and 9 TDs). The next four down the line, including receivers Gerald Baptiste and Freddie Parham and tight end Leroy Banks, are gone. Other talent will pick up the slack, but the Eagles can't count on such solid pass protection this year. One reason Young stepped in so seamlessly is that the offensive line gave up just 16 sacks (#29 adjusted). With four starters gone that is likely to increase a lot, making Davis' job that much harder.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #45 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #99
For the fourth straight year, Damion Fletcher and Tony Harrison provided a heckava one-two punch for Southern Miss. Fletcher ran for 1,015 yards and 8 TDs while Harrison added 647 and 10 TDs last year. Both move on, leaving a big gap in the offense as QB Young is the leading returning rusher at 294 yards. The offensive line is another issue. Senior Cameron Zipp returns but the line loses three 2-year starters (Micah Brown, Ryan Hebert, and Kyle Burkhart) as well as Brennan Houston. Losing your top two backs—one of them a four-year 1,000 yard rusher—and 4/5 of your offensive line is a formula for a big decline in rushing yardage.
Defense (9 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #85 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #52
Strength at linebacker leads the way for an improved defense.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #66 Adj. Pass Def: #114 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #71 Sacks: #40
Six players pulled most of the D-line duty last season and five are back. Terrance Conner (5 sacks) departs but Cordarro Law (7.5 sacks), Terrance Pope, Anthony Gray, Dedrick Jones, and Roshaad Byrd should have the four slots covered well. All three starters return at linebacker, consisting of the team's top three tacklers, Korey Williams (121 tackles, 7.5 sacks), Ronnie Thornton (114 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss), and Martez Smith (2 int.). They lose Andre Watson (9 pass breakups) and Eddie Hicks (5 interceptions) from the secondary, the weakest part of the defense last year. But seniors Justin Wilson (2 int.) and C.J. Bailey (13 pass breakups) form a strong core, and with a solid pass rush up front and strong linebackers the pass defense may improve too.
Kicking Game: Southern Miss used two placekickers last season and both had trouble with PATs (9 missed total). Justin Estes hit 10 of 13 field goals and Daniel Hrapmann made just 4 of 7. Both are back and will battle for the starting job. Punter Peter Boehme averaged a low 38.5 yards per punt but had a solid net of 36.4. He's back for his sophomore year.
Return Game: The Golden Eagles had three touchdown kick returns last year; two were by freshman Tracy Lampley, one on a punt (14.5 yard average) and one on a kickoff (27.6 average). The other was a kickoff return by Freddie Parham. In Lampley (a wide receiver) the Eagles have one of the country's best return men and this year should be just as exciting.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #54
Larry Fedora has had two 7-6 years with the Eagles, the same record that got Jeff Bower to "resign." In all the Eagles have had 7 wins in six of the last eight seasons. Southern Miss topped the C-USA in recruiting last year and they are #2 this season, so they should eventually top that.
2009 Recap Southern Miss was 3-0, then 3-3, then 7-4 before ending the year with two losses including a loss at East Carolina that kept them out of the C-USA title game, and a bowl loss to Dwight Dasher and Middle Tennessee State. The most memorable game was their loss at Houston, where they battled the Cougars to the very end.
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Southern Miss 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/2 | Thu | @ | South Carolina | 32% | L | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | vs. | Prairie View A&M | 83% | W | |||
| 9/17 | Fri | vs. | Kansas | 59% | W | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | @ | Louisiana Tech | 48% | L | |||
| 10/2 | Sat | vs. | *Marshall | 62% | W | |||
| 10/9 | Sat | vs. | *East Carolina | 66% | W | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | @ | *Memphis | 67% | W | |||
| 10/30 | Sat | vs. | *UAB | 56% | W | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | @ | *Tulane | 81% | W | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | @ | *Central Florida | 44% | L | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | vs. | *Houston | 46% | L | |||
| 11/27 | Sat | @ | *Tulsa | 52% | W | |||
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Projection Straight up: 8-4 Cumulative: 7-5
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2010 Outlook Southern Miss might get out of the 7-6 trap this year—or maybe not. If you believe the "straight up" projection there are eight wins on the board. The cumulative projection adds up to seven wins which could have them in the same boat for the fourth straight year.
But the odds favor a better performance. Only one game—the opener at South Carolina—looks too tough for the Eagles. After that there are seven fairly solid wins before the final at Tulsa, which is a narrow win. The other three games on the slate are close losses. So as a best-case scenario, Southern Miss could conceivably go 11-1 this season.
More likely they'll match the 8-4 projection or go 9-3. With six wins "in the bank" they're nearly a shoo-in for another bowl, and five other games are very close; winning 2 or 3 of those yields the 8 to 9 game estimate. Of course all of this is dependent on the defense making big enough gains to offset the decline in the offense. If that doesn't happen, the Eagles will struggle to make a bowl game.
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