SportsRatings: College Football: 2010 Pre-season Rankings - #41 to #45: Notre Dame, Michigan State, UCLA, Kentucky, Mississippi

The SportsRatings 2010 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams. These rankings predict how good the teams will be in 2009 before taking schedule into account, then the preview explores how well they should do given their schedule.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team. Two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win (straight up), and also an aggregate projection that allows for the uncertainty across a season (cumulative). The expectation for the team's season lies somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #41 to #45. To see the full list, click here.

41. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Independent #1) Polls: AP #32 USA/Coaches #34

2009 Results: Record: 6-6 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #40 Success: #54 Overall: #41
The Brian Kelly era starts at Notre Dame with little change in team quality but more success.

Offense (5 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #33 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #70
The Irish have a new offense with new faces at QB, WR, and head coach.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #8    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #55
Notre Dame loses quarterback Jimmy Clausen and receiver Golden Tate. That should be enough of a summary of the Irish passing game and the challenges it faces in '10, but we'll go a bit further. Clausen provided 3,722 yards of offense and threw 28 touchdown passes vs. just 4 interceptions. Tate hauled in 93 receptions for 1,496 yards and 15 TDs. The quarterback situation isn't bad, with backup Dwayne Crist the front-runner to take over. And most of the rest of the receiving corps is there including Michael Floyd (795 yards, 9 TDs) and tight end Kyle Rudolph (364) back along with four other players who had over 100 receiving yards. But starting a new system with a new quarterback and an offensive line that may give up more than last year's 25 sacks is not an ideal situation. Brian Kelly will work his magic but it might take a year.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #77     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #71
The running backs are in a lot better shape. Leading rusher Armando Allen (695 yards) returns with co-starter Robert Hughes (416). Departing WR Tate was third with 186 and #4 Theo Riddick (160) moves to wide receiver. The offensive line is a concern, as three starters depart (4-year starter Sam Young, 3-year starter Eric Olsen, and 2-year starter Paul Duncan) while Chris Stewart and Trevor Robinson return with Dan Wenger who started full-time in '08. Kelly doesn't emphasize the run much so a token amount of improvement could be accurate.

Defense (9 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #45 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #34
The Irish should have a rock-solid rushing defense and better pass defense.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #47 Adj. Pass Def: #102 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #90 Sacks: #56
Notre Dame switches to a three-man front and has a starter in each slot: Kapron Lewis-Moore, Ian Williams, and Ethan Johnson. Backing them in the 4-man corps are returning starters Brian Smith, Manti T'eo, and Darius Fleming (9 tackles for loss). With six starters among the front seven, Notre Dame's rushing defense should be very solid this year and the pass rush improved. The passing defense was a weak area last season; while the loss of Kyle McCarthy (#1 tackler w/101, 5 int.) hurts and they may grab fewer interceptions, overall the unit should improve as Harrison Smith and Robert Blanton return with half-time starters Gary Gray and Darrin Walls. In all 11 of the top 13 tacklers return.

Kicking Game: Ben Turk (38.2 average) shared punting duties with Eric Maust (35.8) who was denied a 5th year of eligibility so Turk will take over full-time. David Ruffer made 5 of 5 field goals when subbing for Nick Tausch (14 of 17) but Tausch appears to have his job back.
Return Game: Another time the Irish will miss Golden Tate is on punt returns. Tate averaged 14.2 per attempt and had a touchdown return. Starting running back Allen will take over this year. Theo Riddick (RB turned WR) will again handle kickoff returns after averaging 22.9 yards last year.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #24
The biggest off-season coaching move was, of course, Brian Kelly's move to Notre Dame. After suffering through the last three years of Charlie Weis' premature contract extension and decided schematic advantage the Irish picked up the hottest coach of the day in a move reminiscent of Florida landing Urban Meyer. This season's recruiting class is about the same as Weis' previous one and most are Weis recruits but Kelly did a good job of keeping them in the fold. Four recruits are consensus blue chips: Defensive tackle Louis Nix, receiver Tai-ler Jones, offensive lineman Christian Lombard, and tight end Alex Welsh. Another blue chip recruit, Matt James from Cincinnati, died tragically in a Spring Break accident. While there were no super-blue chips or consensus 5-star recruits in the group, Notre Dame is already full of the most talent that Kelly has ever coaches as he moved from Division II Grand Valley State to Central Michigan to Cincinnati. This is also the first place with a big-time college football tradition, but then again Urban Meyer made the transition seamlessly.

2009 Recap 2009 was supposed to be the big year after a horrible 3-9 '07 and somewhat disappointing stepping-stone 7-6 in '08. It got off to a good start with a 35-0 beatdown of Nevada, then went sour with a 38-34 loss at Michigan. Still, hope was intact and the Irish won three straight close games over Michigan State, Purdue, and Washington. Around this time it was clear the Irish wouldn't be dominant, as none of those teams was a national power and Notre Dame could easily have been 1-4. They hung tough with USC for the first time since 2005 but lost 34-27, which was encouraging, and wins over Boston College and Washington State put the Irish at 6-2. Then it all fell apart with another loss to Navy, the second in 40-some years as well as the 2nd in 3 years. Pitt beat them by 5, UConn beat them in double overtime, and Stanford beat them by 7 points. Another touchdown one way or another and Notre Dame could have been 12-0, or they could have been 2-10.

Notre Dame 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Purdue	66%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Michigan	58%	W
9/18	Sat	@	Michigan State	48%	L
9/25	Sat	vs.	Stanford	43%	L
10/2	Sat	@	Boston College	44%	L
10/9	Sat	vs.	Pittsburgh	46%	L
10/16	Sat	vs.	Western Michigan	74%	W
10/23	Sat	N	Navy	55%	W
10/30	Sat	vs.	Tulsa	63%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	Utah	52%	W
11/20	Sat	@	Army	60%	W
11/27	Sat	@	Southern Cal	44%	L
Projection Straight up: 7-5 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook This year—like last year—there is no game that is out of reach of the Irish. They should be competitive in their toughest games.

Their key stretch starts with Michigan State. They should be 2-0 at this point, and the road game against the Spartans is followed by Stanford, Boston College, and Pitt, all tough games that they'll be expected to lose in close contests. If they can win two of those they'll be in great shape, but it's very possible to win all of them.

After that comes the easy part of the schedule, four games they'll be expected to win. Two of them (Navy and Utah) should be close. They finish with USC on the road, and they even have a reasonable chance of winning that one.

If Brian Kelly is a miracle worker the Irish could go 12-0 like his last Cincinnati team. Both projections call for 7 wins or nearly so, but I think they might exceed that. Five wins on the board are pretty solid, and the other seven games are close. Even if they go 3-4 on those that's eight wins. An 8-4 season wouldn't be a miracle but it's only Kelly's first year. It took him three seasons at Cincy to have a 12-0 team; Notre Dame will have to wait until 2012 for their national title.

42. Michigan State Spartans (Big Ten #5) Polls: USA/Coaches #40

2009 Results: Record: 6-7 Bowl: Lost to Texas Tech 41-31 (Alamo) Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #54 Success: #61 Overall: #54
Good recruiting over the last two years gives MSU a boost.

Offense (6 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #32 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #36
Not much change in the Spartan offense either way.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #22    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #25
Kirk Cousins had a strong year statistically (2,680 yards, 19 TDs, 9 int) but still made some big mistakes like the overthrow that would have beaten Notre Dame. Keith Nichol got some quality backup time in (764 yards, 7 TDs, 3 int) last year but he's moving to wide receiver. Leading receiver Blair White (990 yards, 9 TDs) is gone but the next six down the line return including B.J. Cunningham (641 yards), Mark Dell, deep threat Keshawn Martin, and starting tight end Charlie Gannt. The offensive line was fantastic at QB protection last year, #4 in the nation (adjusted) with just 14 sacks allowed, but they'll be weaker this year. Overall the passing game will still be strong but I wonder if moving Nichol is a good idea, in case Cousins is re-injured.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #68     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #73
Larry Caper and Edwin Baker, both true freshmen, led the Spartans in rushing with 468 and 427 yards each, while Baker's average (5.0) was better. WR Martin was third with a 12.2 yard average in 18 attempts. The offensive line won't be as sturdy as last year as three starters depart. Joel Nitchman, Rocco Cironi, and Brendon Moss leave while D.J. Young and Joel Foreman return. The freshmen become sophomores but they'll find the going a little rougher, and MSU hasn't emphasized the run lately.

Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #67 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #68
The Spartan defense also seems to tread water for the most part.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #39 Adj. Pass Def: #90 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #68 Sacks: #28
Two starters, Colin Neely and Jerel Worthy (4.5 sacks), return to the 4-man defensive line. At linebacker, the overwhelming #1 tackler returns: Greg Jones had 154 tackles and 9 sacks. Eric Gordon was #2 and returns as well. The secondary loses two starters but Chris L Rucker (not to be confused with Chris D. Rucker, also on the team) is back with half-time starters Marcus Hyde and Trenton Robinson. Overall they lose quite a few starters but with Jones back they won't be any less effective.

Kicking Game: Punter Aaron Bates (41.6 average) is back but placekicker Brett Swenson (19 of 22 field goals) has to be replaced. Freshman Kevin Muma will do his best to fill Swenson's shoes, but it's a tough task.
Return Game: In addition to running plays and long receptions, Keshawn Martin also returned punts and kickoffs, averaging 7.4 yards on the former and 28.9 on the latter, with one touchdown return.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #25
Mark Dantonio's recruiting classes have been borderline top 25 for the last two seasons, which makes for a strong batch of incoming talent this year either true or redshirt freshmen. It's the main reason the team moves up in our rankings from last season, since the offense and defense don't improve. The obvious top recruit this year is consensus 5-star William Gholston, a 6' 6" 250 lb. defensive end.

2009 Recap The Spartans showed promise but their season was blighted early on by some heartbreaking losses, such as when Central Michigan made a crazy last-minute comeback and got a 2nd field goal attempt when MSU jumped offsides on a miss. Then at Notre Dame Cousins overthrew a wide open Larry Caper which would have won the game. Their own miracle comeback attempt at Wisconsin failed and the Spartans were 1-3 with the losses by a total of 13 points. They beat Michigan in overtime which was their proudest moment of the season. When Iowa came in MSU was 4-3 but a last-play Iowa touchdown sank the Spartans. They finished 6-6 and after a slew of players (mostly receivers) were suspended for their bowl game they still fought hard but lost to Texas Tech 41-31 in the Alamo Bowl.

Michigan St. 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Western Michigan	74%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Florida Atlantic	75%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	Notre Dame	52%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	N. Colorado	87%	W
10/2	Sat	vs.	*Wisconsin	39%	L
10/9	Sat	@	*Michigan	51%	W
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Illinois	62%	W
10/23	Sat	@	*Northwestern	55%	W
10/30	Sat	@	*Iowa	39%	L
11/6	Sat	vs.	*Minnesota	59%	W
11/20	Sat	vs.	*Purdue	63%	W
11/27	Sat	@	*Penn State	41%	L
Projection Straight up: 9-3 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook What a difference a schedule makes. Not on the road until game six and with only three real pitfalls—Wisconsin, Iowa, and Penn State—the Spartans could very well go 9-3 and on the board at left they're favored to do just that.

The Spartans had better be at least 3-1 after their first four games—all at home—against Western Michigan, Florida Atlantic (in Detroit technically, but come on), Notre Dame, and Northern Colorado.

They have two difficult challenges against Wisconsin and Michigan, and with UM on the road this could be a loss as well. Illinois and Northwestern should be victims too. At this point they could be 7-1, or at worst should be 5-3.

They should win 2 of the last four as well, meaning they ought to be anywhere from 7-5 (as the cumulative projection indicates) to 9-3. I don't doubt they can start 4-1 but playing their first road game at Michigan will be tough. I'll go with 8-4, the rest of the season going by the script.

43. UCLA Bruins (Pac-10 #8)

2009 Results: Record: 7-6 Bowl: Beat Temple 30-21 (EagleBank Bowl) Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #50 Success: #51 Overall: #51
With the offense and defense stagnant, special teams and recruiting make UCLA better this year.

Offense (5.5 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #83 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #81
For the 2nd straight year the offensive line falls apart in camp.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #61    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #69
Kevin Prince is back for his sophomore year and while he's dinged up weeks before the season starts he should be ready to go in game one (worst case, game two). Prince had 2,050 passing yards and 8 TDs last year, along with 8 interceptions. Injuries plagued him all year and if he ever gets healthy he could have a good year. The two top wide receivers (Nelson Rosario and Taylor Embree) return after combining for 1,331 yards in '09. The next four pass catchers are gone but Colorado transfer Josh Smith comes in to help. The offensive line...well, read about it below. It was going to be a strength for the team, and still won't be bad, but last year's pre-season bad luck has struck again. All in all the Bruin passing attack will be about the same.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #80     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #87
This year's offensive line, as of spring, boasted four returning starters, everyone except Xavier Su'a-Filo who left for a Mormon mission. The linemen were determined to make a statement with their play. But three starters have been lost since then for some or all of the season: Kai Maiava broke his ankle and will be out the majority of the year; Mike Harris was suspended for the opener; and Jeff Baca got a double-whammy, being declared ineligible *and* suffering a leg injury that is healing slowly. Baca appealed but remained ineligible and backup Stanley Hasiak will redshirt due to his own academic problems while freshman backup Nik Abele had to retire due to neck problems. That still leaves Harris and Eddie Williams back for most of the year; Micah Kia is back from redshirting and Darius Savage has been a starter before, too. It won't be the way they wanted, but the line will be effective. In terms of running backs, the top two—Johnathan Franklin (566 yards) and Derrick Coleman (244) are back. #3 Chane Moline is gone and #5 Milton Knox transferred, while #4 was QB Prince. Coach Rick Neuheisel has been working with Norm Chow to implement "the pistol" offense to juice the rushing attack, but they've got their work cut out for them.

Defense (4.5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #19 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #36
Big losses in the front seven hobble the Bruin defense.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #42 Adj. Pass Def: #31 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #42 Sacks: #52
The Bruins had an okay rushing defense in 2009 but things could get worse this year. Three of four starters were gone from the defensive line, including Brian Price—who had 7.5 sacks and an additional 16.5 tackles for loss—and Korey Bosworth who had 12.5 tackles for loss. Worse, lone returning starter Datone Jones caught "UCLA offensive lineman disease" and broke his foot and will miss about half the year. At linebacker it doesn't get much better as they lose their two top tacklers, Reggie Carter and Kyle Bosworth. #3 Akeem Ayers (6 sacks) does return though to hold down the fort during September as the only returning starter in the front seven. The secondary is relatively golden. Though Alterraun Verner (5 interceptions) is gone, Tony Dye, Sheldon Price, and national interceptions leader Rahim Moore (10 int!) are all back. Look for teams to try to run on the Bruins a little more, and pass a bit less.

Kicking Game: The Bruins have a fantastic kicking game and it should only get better. Punter Jeff Locke averaged 43.6 yards per punt and placekicker Kai Forbath hit an astounding 28 of 31 field goals (all misses were outside the 50). Both return; Forbath is a senior, Locke a sophomore.
Return Game: Wide receiver Terrence Austin handled both kick return chores last year with a healthy 24.1 average on kickoffs and 9.2 on punts. He's gone but Josh Smith, one of the better return man in the country at Colorado in 2008 joins the squad. Smith averaged over 25 yards per kickoff and 10 per punt, and had one kickoff touchdown return.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #14
Rick Neuheisel brought in a top ten class last year and this one was just about as good until it hit a few snags, resulting in the dismissal of recruits Paul Richardson, Joshua Shirley, and Shaquille Richardson. Paul R and Shirley were consensus blue chips and transferred to Colorado and Washington respectively while Shaq R went to Arizona. Another blue chip, corner Marlon Pollard, left the team as well. That still left nearly a dozen blue chip recruits led by superstar defensive end Owamagbe Odighizuwa. In fact the team's projected improvement this year is largely due to the last two years' recruiting classes; the Bruin offense and defense remain the same or decline, but the new talent infused into the team will lift them.

2009 Recap UCLA began 2009 with a 3-0 run, then hit the skids and lost five in a row (all conference games), and recovered to beat the three fellow non-contenders Washington, Washington State, and Arizona State. They lost to USC but qualified for a bowl game where they stunk up the place against Temple in the first half before rallying for a win.

UCLA 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	@	Kansas State	53%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	*Stanford	41%	L
9/18	Sat	vs.	Houston	48%	L
9/25	Sat	@	Texas	33%	L
10/2	Sat	vs.	*Washington State	77%	W
10/9	Sat	@	*California	43%	L
10/21	Thu	@	*Oregon	27%	L
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Arizona	50%	L
11/6	Sat	vs.	*Oregon State	48%	L
11/13	Sat	@	*Washington	39%	L
11/26	Fri	@	*Arizona State	57%	W
12/4	Sat	vs.	*Southern Cal	51%	W
Projection Straight up: 4-8 Cumulative: 6-6

2010 Outlook If not for all the offensive line losses and players out for the first month or so of the season, UCLA might have been favored to edge Houston. Now, however, it's looking like a loss and a 1-3 start is likely with 0-4 not out of the question if Prince or other key players miss the opener.

The Pac-10 season doesn't look promising as most of the teams in the league are better than the Bruins again this year. Arizona is a tossup, while Arizona State and yes, even USC at home look like wins, though very close. Oregon State could be a make-up victim if UCLA gets upset somewhere else.

That puts the Bruins at 4-8 or 5-7, while the cumulative projection thinks 6-6 is more likely. At best they could win perhaps 8 games, at worst they could probably lose 10.

I'm going to say that the Bruins will have 5 wins going into the game against USC. If they win, they're bowl eligible. Lose, they stay home. By that time if the offensive line has adjusted to all the changes and the hot new recruits have gotten their feet wet they can get the win. But USC can't go to a bowl game and will also be fired up to make that game their substitute bowl.

44. Kentucky Wildcats (SEC #10; East #4)

2009 Results: Record: 7-6 Bowl: Lost to Clemson 21-13 (Music City) Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #37 Success: #52 Overall: #39
The team summary...

Offense (5 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #35 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #37
A fractured offensive line prevents the offense from making significant gains.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #109    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #98
Kentucky played quarterback shuffle last year, using four players extensively: Mike Hartline (806 yards, 6 TDs 7 int), Morgan Newton (706, 6:3), Will Fidler (186 yds., departs), and Randall Cobb in the wildcat formation. The fall camp battle is still on between Hartline, Newton, and redshirt freshman Ryan Mossakowski. Cobb was the leading receiver with 447 yards and he returns with #2 Chris Matthews (354). They lost probable starter Gene McCaskill (#4 receiver) this summer. Last year's meager results were fashioned with an offensive line that allowed just 17 sacks; with protection worse next year (only one starter returns) upward progress in the passing game may be stunted.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #15     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #23
Derrick Locke was the main cog in Kentucky's surprisingly strong rushing attack, which ranked 21st in raw numbers but faced a number of great rushing defenses. Locke ran for 970 yards and 6 TDs while Cobb rushed for 573 mostly out of the wildcat and had 10 touchdowns. They lose two of the next three 200+ yard rushers and will be running behind a much weaker offensive line. They lose Zipp Duncan, Jorge Gonzalez, Christian Johnson, and Justin Jeffries, a total of 8 years of starting experience. Stuart Hines is back along with four part-time starters from '09 and '08 so they can cobble together a strong group, but it won't be like last year's O-line and rushing figures may fall.

Defense (5.5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #40 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #67
Losses at linebacker and in the secondary cause a drop in the defense's ranking.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #86 Adj. Pass Def: #17 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #38 Sacks: #113
Three starters return to the defensive line: DeQuin Evans (6 sacks), Ricky Lumpkin, and Taylor Windham, hoping to shore up the rushing defense and meager pass rush (16 sacks last year). At linebacker they lose Micah Johnson (#1 tackler with 105) and Sam Maxwell (6 interceptions), only returning Danny Trevathan who starts when UK doesn't line up in a 4-2-5. The secondary is a strong point but there are issues this year. They lose not only Trevor Lindley and Calvin Harrison, but corner Paul Warford is ineligible for the 2nd time in three years. Randall Burden and Winston Guy are back but the pass defense will slip.

Kicking Game: Ryan Tydlacka returns after punting for a neat 40.0 yard average, but Lones Seiber departs after making 11 of 16 field goals in his final season with the Wildcats. Either Tydlacka or Joe Mansour will try to replace Kentucky's all-time scoring leader.
Return Game: In addition to being a receiver, running back, and quarterback, Randall Cobb returned punts and kickoffs, averaging 12.8 per punt (with one touchdown return) and 26.5 per kickoff. RB Derrick Locke also returned a kickoff for a touchdown and had a 27.8 average. The return unit is a definite strength for the Wildcats.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #44
After trying for years but never getting the breakthrough season he wanted to have at Kentucky Rich Brooks retired last year. Few things are tougher than coaching football at a basketball school. Joker Phillips was the offensive coordinator at UK so there was no real interruption in recruiting. Although this year's class ranks well nationally, within the SEC it's one of the poorest, though attrition tends to even that out. Only a few '10 recruits so far have failed to qualify for the 'Cats.

2009 Recap When they weren't playing against other SEC teams the Wildcats did pretty well last year. They blanked Miami of Ohio (MAC) 42-0 and edged Big East's Louisville. Then came losses to Florida, Alabama, and South Carolina. They beat Auburn and ULM (Sun) before losing to Mississippi State. They beat Eastern Kentucky (MAC), Vanderbilt and Georgia before losing to Tennessee to finish 6-6. Paired with Clemson in the Music City Bowl, the Tigers (ACC) gave them their first out-of-conference loss.

Kentucky 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	@	Louisville	63%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Western Kentucky	76%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	Akron	75%	W
9/25	Sat	@	*Florida	27%	L
10/2	Sat	@	*Mississippi	41%	L
10/9	Sat	vs.	*Auburn	38%	L
10/16	Sat	vs.	*South Carolina	41%	L
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Georgia	46%	L
10/30	Sat	@	*Mississippi State	41%	L
11/6	Sat	vs.	Charleston Southern	89%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	66%	W
11/27	Sat	@	*Tennessee	52%	W
Projection Straight up: 6-6 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook The Wildcats again schedule out-of-conference cupcakes to offset the rigors of their SEC slate. Starting with Louisville, a legit in-state foe whom they play on the road, they then play Western Kentucky and Akron, and later take on I-AA Charleston Southern. They should win all four of those with ease.

The SEC contests will be tougher and some won't be pretty. Florida, however, is the only game they don't really stand a chance in. Mississippi on the road is followed by three home games (Auburn, South Carolina, and Georgia) and Mississippi State. They're underdogs according to us in all five of those but none is completely out of reach.

Vanderbilt and Tennessee should be wins. The latter is questionable as it's on the road. But if everything goes to plan Kentucky will win three, lose six, then win three more to go 6-6. Due to the reasonable shot they have in those five mid-season games the cumulative projection actually rounds up to 7-5, and it's easy to imagine them winning one of the five for sure. But it's also easy to see them losing at Tennessee, so maybe the 6-6 projection is our "official" one.

45. Mississippi Rebels (SEC #9; West #6)

2009 Results: Record: 9-4 Bowl: Beat Oklahoma St. 21-7 (Cotton) Poll finish: AP #41 USA #30
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #17 Success: #25 Overall: #22
Having Jeremiah Masoli eligible helps would have helped but it looks like he has to sit a year [update: now he's eligible again].

Offense (3 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #28 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #84
With most of Ole Miss' offensive talent gone, Masoli can only help halt the decline [note ratings reflect team w/o Masoli]
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #58    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #114
With two-year starter Jevon Snead (2,632 yards, 20 TDs, 20 int) departing Ole Miss was ready to hand the reigns to Nathan Stanley (48% completions in mop-up duty) and have freshman Raymond Cotton as backup. When Cotton transferred they were in a bind. Previously Houston Nutt had shown no interest in ex-Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli, but he changed his tune and now Masoli is a Rebel, but he'll probably have to sit a year as the NCAA decided to close the "grad student loophole" on him. His 15:6 TD:int ratio compares favorably to Snead's 20:20 from last season but he wasn't a prolific passer (2,147 yards) and the whole offense would have to be changed to accommodate him. Now it appears that they'll have to go back to Plan A and Stanley. They lose ace receiver Shay Hodge (1,135 yards, 8 TDs) and Dexter McCluster (520) while Pat Patterson was dismissed, leaving just two of the top five (Markeith Summers and RB Brandon Bolden). The offensive line has to be reassembled too, so QB protection won't be as effective as last year. It looks like Nutt is going to use both Stanley and Masoli in a two-QB system.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #21     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #57
Dexter McCluster was just a wide receiver at the beginning of the year but became Mississippi's leading rusher by the end with 1,169 yards and 8 touchdowns (6.5 average). Brandon Bolden took a back seat in the 2nd half of the year and finished with 614 (4.8 average). McCluster is gone but Bolden might have been second fiddle again to Masoli, who had 668 yards net with the Ducks last year, but instead he'll be more important the ever. The offensive line might not make things conducive to a strong rushing game though. They lose 4-year starter John Jerry, 3-year starter Reid Neely, and 2-year starter Daverin Geralds. Bradley Sowell is back with part-time starters Bobby Massie and Rishaw Johnson. Losing McCluster plus a more limited offensive line means production will fall.

Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #14 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #21
Six senior starters are back but the pass defense will slip from its high standard of last year.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #29 Adj. Pass Def: #19 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #8 Sacks: #16
The Ole Miss rushing defense should remain staunch as three starters return among the front four: Kentrell Locket (5 sacks, may be injured), Lawon Scott, and Jerrell Powe (9 tackles for loss), all seniors. Their stellar QB pressure ranking (#16) will probably decline though, as they lose starter Marcus Tillman, former starter Greg Hardy, and backup Emmanuel Stephens who combined for 16 sacks, as well as linebacker Patrick Trahan who had five. The other two linebackers, Jonathan Cornell and Alan Walker, are back givin the Rebels five senior starters in the front seven. The only concern is the secondary which loses three starters including #1 tackler Kendrick Lewis and Cassius Vaughn (11 pass breakups). Johnny Brown, another senior, returns but with the losses here and with a weaker pass rush the Rebels' pass defense will no longer rank in the top 10 on a per-attempt basis.

Kicking Game: Punter Tyler Campbell (44 yard average) is back for the Rebels but Joshua Shene departs after hitting 15 of 20 field goals. Sophomore Bryson Rose will take over as placekicker.
Return Game: Jesse Grandy took two kickoffs back for touchdowns as a true freshman last year, ramping up his average to 25.7 yards per return. Departing cornerback Marshay Green was the main punt returner with a 10.2 average; Grandy will replace him giving him even more touchdown opportunities this year.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #18
Houston Nutt brought in another top 25 recruiting class this year, his 2nd in a row, though it ranks as only average for the SEC. With a half-dozen consensus blue-chips such as defensive end Wayne Dorsey and quarterback Randall Mackey, this class and the one before it help to ease the loss of so much talent from last year's team. Still, two newcomers have gotten a lot more press than the superstar recruits. One of course is Masoli, whose immediate would have dwarfed that of any recruit. Without him Ole Miss is looking at having a very poor offense this year (falling from #28 to #84) instead of staying above average. The passing game would have been stronger and the running game would have been much better. We'll see if Masoli can be successfully integrated into the offense next year, unless the NCAA shockingly reverses its decision [update yes, we are shocked]. The next most talked-about newcomer might be offensive lineman Terrell Brown, who is nearly 7 feet tall and weighs upwards of 400 pounds. A walk-on, he's more of a curiosity than anything else thus far but if he gets on the field it will be a sight.

2009 Recap Expectations ran very high for Ole Miss in 2009 and they couldn't live up to them, making a 9-4 season feel like a disappointment. That came early as the Rebels fell to South Carolina 16-10 making the showdown with Alabama two weeks later look like a foregone conclusion. It was, with the Tide winning 22-3. They lost to Auburn but beat winning teams Arkansas and Tennessee, and escaped with a win against LSU, but ended the year losing to rival Mississippi State who finished 5-7. Paired with Oklahoma State in what could only be called the Consolation Bowl the Rebels won 21-7.

Ole Miss 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Jacksonville St.	64%	W
9/11	Sat	@	Tulane	85%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	67%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	Fresno State	57%	W
10/2	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	53%	W
10/16	Sat	@	*Alabama	24%	L
10/23	Sat	@	*Arkansas	23%	L
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Auburn	38%	L
11/6	Sat	vs.	LA-Lafayette	75%	W
11/13	Sat	@	*Tennessee	52%	W
11/20	Sat	@	*LSU	36%	L
11/27	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi State	47%	L
Projection Straight up: 7-5 Cumulative: 6-6

2010 Outlook Despite being a lesser team this year the Rebels should perform almost as well as last year's disappointing squad. Once the contributions of the new faces from the last two years of recruiting are added in the team looks quite a bit better.

Ole Miss should start 5-0 before running into a train wreck of back-to-back road games at Alabama and Arkansas. Auburn at home might make for a three-game losing streak which they should break against ULM.

They can beat Tennessee on the road but probably not LSU, and should lost to rival Mississippi State at home. This makes for a 7-5 season, though with possible upsets, etc., the cumulative projection claims that 6-6 is more likely. The first seven wins look solid, so I guess it comes down to that final game.

If Masoli's appeal to be eligible is successful, they'll probably only be 8-4; perhaps one more win, and a couple of wins (Kentucky, Tennessee) would have a better cushion. Worst case they might miss a bowl game at 4-8 or 5-7 and with Masoli that probably wouldn't happen; if he thrived within Nutt's offense the Rebels had the capacity to go 10-2. Instead, this year will look like last year. A bit less successful maybe, but perhaps less disappointing.

SportsRatings: College Football

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August 24, 2010

2010 Pre-season Rankings - #41 to #45: Notre Dame, Michigan State, UCLA, Kentucky, Mississippi

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