2010 Pre-season Rankings - #36 to #40: USC, California, Connecticut, Arizona, Utah

The SportsRatings 2010 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams. These rankings predict how good the teams will be in 2009 before taking schedule into account, then the preview explores how well they should do given their schedule.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team. Two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win (straight up), and also an aggregate projection that allows for the uncertainty across a season (cumulative). The expectation for the team's season lies somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #36 to #40. To see the full list, click here.

36. Southern Cal Trojans (Pac-10 #5)          Polls: AP #14  USA/Coaches: not elig.

2009 Results: Record: 9-4  Bowl: Beat Boston Coll. 24-13 (Emerald)  Poll finish: AP #22 USA #20
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #27    Success: #14    Overall: #24
USC could suffer a hangover from last season and all the subsequent drama.

Offense (5 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #43   '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #52
This year will be a test of USC's vaunted depth at various positions.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #78    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #77
Matt Barkley took the reigns as a true freshman last year and did a good job—for a true freshman. By USC standards his 15 TDs and 14 interceptions weren't acceptable and he certainly didn't deserve the ridiculous Heisman talk that came from a few prominent announcers. But 2,735 yards was a good start that he'll build on. If he falters or is injured the Trojans have Mitch Mustain as a grade A fallback plan. Last year's backup Aaron Corp transferred and top receivers Damian Williams (1,010 yards) and Anthony McCoy (457) are also gone, leaving Ronald Johnson (378) and fullback Stanley Havili (298) the leading returners. Though USC always restocks with receivers, the offensive line will be down a peg from the solid protection they gave Barkley last year. Surprisingly we're not forecasting much gain in Barkley's sophomore year.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #18     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #39
Only Joe McKnight lived up to my prediction of three USC 1,000 yard rushers and he only made it by 14 yards. Staphon Johnson had a terrible weightlifting accident that knocked him out for the season after just a few games and finished with 157, and C.J. Gable ended with only 102. Allen Bradford picked up the slack with 668 and he returns with Gable. Fullback Havili had 138 but might be in the doghouse with coach Lane Kiffin after attacking cornerback T.J. Bryant in camp and backup D.J. Shoemate transferred. The offensive line situation isn't ideal as three starters leave: 3-year starter Jeff Byers and 2-year starters Charles Brown and Alex Parsons. Tyron Smith is back with half-time-plus starters Kristopher O'Dowd and Butch Lewis. There is still great talent at running back and Bradford should have a great year but overall production may lag greatly. Interestingly junior Marc Tyler was named the starter over Bradford for the opener.

Defense (5 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #18    '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #32
Defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin has his work cut out for him in trying to get the defense back up to USC standards
• '09 Stats:  Adj. Rush Def: #50   Adj. Pass Def: #42   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #12   Sacks: #20
The Trojan D-line suffers a few setbacks beyond the loss of Everson Griffen (8 sacks): Christian Tupou tore his ACL in the spring, and backup Malik Jackson transferred. Wes Horton and Jurrell Casey (4.5 sacks) return with new starter Nick Perry (8 sacks) who could miss the first few games with a bum ankle. A strong linebacking corps should help shore up the rushing defense, as Malcolm Smith, Michael Morgan, and Chris Galippo all return, though they lose depth with the transfer of Jarvis Jones and Jordan Campbell. The secondary is in shambles as all four starters depart, including of course Taylor Mays (#1 tackler last year) as well as Will Harris (4 int.), Josh Pinkard, and Kevin Thomas who combined for 24 pass breakups. Freshman Byron Moore was slated to start but he, like several others, transferred.

Kicking Game: Punter Jacob Harfman (39.8 average) is back but placekicker Jordan Congdon (12 of 16 field goals) is not. Harfman may take on both roles; if not, Joe Houston will be the new kicker.
Return Game: Damian Williams was USC's most dynamic returnman in '09, taking two punts back all the way (14.2 average). Receiver Ronald Johnson will take over on punts. Johnson assisted C.J. Gable in handling kickoffs last season.
Coaching/Recruiting      '10 Recruiting Rank: #10
A lot has happened in the last year. Coach Pete Carroll moved on to Seattle, just in time for the Reggie Bush scandal came to a head with sanctions announced for USC. As a result the university said they would return Bush's Heisman Trophy and running backs coach Todd McNair was fired. As Carroll's replacement the university hired unproven Lane Kiffin away from Tennessee at a ludicrous salary. Kiffin brings a dream team of assistants with him including dad Monte as defensive coordinator, but he ruffled feathers by hiring Kennedy Pola away from the Tennessee Titans as offensive coordinator and now faces a lawsuit.

Due to the sanctions several Trojans have jumped ship. On offense D.J. Shoemate left for Connecticut and Travon Patterson went to Colorado. On defense, linebackers Jordan Campbell and Jarvis Jones, defensive end Malik Jackson, and safety Byron Moore left. Several high-profile recruits from the class of '10 left as well, the biggest among them offensive lineman Seantrel Henderson, the top recruit in the nation who went to Miami. Blue chips Glen Stanley (linebacker) and Marquis Jackson (defensive end) also transferred. Before these defections the recruiting class was near the very top; now it's borderline top 10. They still have consensus top 100 players Kyle Prater and Robert Woods (both receivers) and Dillon Baxter (running back).

All of this upheaval might be causing some internal strife, too, as the fall camp rumble between fullback Stanley Havili and cornerback T.J. Bryant demonstrates. USC—like Miami before them—had a swaggering "us against the world" attitude that held the team together. Now that could be unraveling. Can Kiffin provide the leadership to prevent a downward spiral?

2009 Recap  After their win at Ohio State it looked like USC was down a bit from 2008 but still powerful. That illusion was shattered by their loss at the hands of Washington, 0-12 the year before. Though the Trojans won four straight to start 6-1 they couldn't pull away from Notre Dame (34-27) and their defense looked shabby against Oregon State (42-36). Then came the first of several bombs. Oregon beat them 47-20. Stanford topped that at 55-21 in Pasedena. Arizona beat them for the first time since 2000. At 8-4 they played in the Emerald Bowl but beat Boston College 24-13.

USC 2010 schedule & forecast
9/2	Thu	@	Hawaii	69%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Virginia	62%	W
9/18	Sat	@	Minnesota	56%	W
9/25	Sat	@	*Washington State	74%	W
10/2	Sat	vs.	*Washington	48%	L
10/9	Sat	@	*Stanford	40%	L
10/16	Sat	vs.	*California	53%	W
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Oregon	37%	L
11/6	Sat	vs.	*Arizona State	64%	W
11/13	Sat	@	*Arizona	48%	L
11/20	Sat	@	*Oregon State	45%	L
11/27	Sat	vs.	Notre Dame	56%	W
12/4	Sat	@	*UCLA	50%	L
Projection   Straight up: 7-6   Cumulative: 7-6

2010 Outlook  Which way will USC go is the big question. It's possible that they could win 11 out of their 13 games this year. It's also possible for them to have a losing year as bad as 5-8.

There are only 5 or 6 solid wins on the schedule, but only two games—Stanford and Oregon—that are highly probable losses. Every other game could go either way, from Washington to California, Arizona, Oregon State, and UCLA. The latter could be USC's "bowl game" as they can't go to one this year,

USC should start 4-0 and beating Washington at home would make them 5-0. They might lose two of the next three but every game after that is either a win or a tossup.

Picking game by game with the lowered value we've assigned to the Trojans they would finish just 7-6, which is what the cumulative projection also asserts. But with five or six solid wins (counting one of Minnesota and Notre Dame, and perhaps both) they should be expected to finish with at least 8 victories.

The difference between this year's USC and previous years is that it's not hard to look at the schedule and see a lot of possible losses. Before any loss would have to be a big upset; after last year that's no longer true.

37. California Golden Bears (Pac-10 #6)          Polls: USA/Coaches #42

2009 Results: Record: 8-5    Bowl: Lost to Utah 37-27 (Poinsettia)    Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #51    Success: #35    Overall: #48
Another year, another winning season for Jeff Tedford and Cal.

Offense (8 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #41   '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #30
Kevin Riley and Shane Vereen provide the Bears with offensive consistency.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #51    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #31
Last year Kevin Riley finally had the floor to himself and did well, passing for 2,850 yards and 18 TDs with 8 interceptions. Still not terribly accurate (55%) there is still much room for improvement in his senior year. Once again the offensive line allowed a lot of sacks (31) ranking 82nd in the nation in QB protection. That should be remedied to a great extent as four starters return, and four of the top five receivers return including Marvin Jones (#1 with 651 yards), Anthony Miller, and tight end Jeremy Ross. All signs point to an excellent Cal passing game in '10.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #37     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #40
Jahvid Best was slowed by injury and then went out for the year after diving over the top of a pile and landing on his head against Oregon State. Backup Shane Vereen did a great job and finished with 952 yards to Best's 867. Both had 12 touchdowns. Vereen returns along with Covaughn DeBoskie-Johnson who added 211. On the O-line Mike Tepper departs but returnees Chris Guarnero, Justin Cheadle, and Mitchell Schwartz started all 13 games and Matt Summers-Gavin started most. With a better offensive line production might not be down much as Vereen did very well as featured running back.

Defense (6 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #57    '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #60
The troubled Cal secondary may remain weak while the rushing defense stays tough.
• '09 Stats:  Adj. Rush Def: #27   Adj. Pass Def: #116   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #94   Sacks: #42
Seniors Cameron Jordan (6 sacks) and Derrick Hill are back on the defensive line but Tyson Alualu (7.5 sacks) is gone. Two of the four starting linebackers return, Mike Mohamed (#1 tacker with 112) and D.J. Holt. The secondary loses three starters including Syd'Quan Thompson (10 pass breakups) but Josh Hill and Sean Catthouse both finished the year as starters and are back. The defense would seem to have the same relative strengths and weaknesses as last season and thought Mohamed returns five of the next six tacklers are gone.

Kicking Game: Punter Brian Anger (41.5 average) returns as do both kickers Cal used last year, Vince D'Amato (7 of 12 FG) and Giorgio Tavecchio (8 of 12). As for who will start, nobody knows from game to game.
Return Game: Receiver Jeremy Ross returned a punt for a touchdown and that juiced his average to a crazy 21.3 yards. Shane Vereen returned most kickoffs for a 23.0 average.
Coaching/Recruiting      '10 Recruiting Rank: #46
Jeff Tedford has been consistently successful at Cal with winning seasons every year. Some are starting to question whether he's lost the coaching "zeitgeist" since two 10-win seasons in the mid-2000s. Once known as a quarterback guru his latest projects have had mixed results. But it's usually just when these questions are asked that a positive answer comes. It might not be this year but Tedford will have Cal back in the national title hunt at some point. Recruiting this year was subpar, like last year low for the Pac-10. Losing top recruit Chris Martin didn't help matters. Their other best-of-the-best recruit is safety Keenan Allen who should help the secondary immediately.

2009 Recap  Like every Pac-10 team Cal had its ups and downs in 2009 but Cal had more than most. A 52-13 win over Maryland had some thinking Cal was a national title contender, but as we had predicted the reality was the Terrapins were Terrible. Beating Eastern Washington 59-7 should have fooled no one, and Minnesota played them closer than expected, 35-21. Still it was a shock when Oregon demolished them 42-3, and after USC had its shot (30-3) Cal had burst like a stock market bubble. They recovered to win five of their next six including back-to-back wins over Arizona and Stanford that raised hopes, but Washington gave them their third beatdown of the season 42-10. Overconfidence was a problem that reared its head many times during the season and players admitted it was a factor against Washington. So it was no surprise that, after taking a 14-0 lead on Utah, players were already dancing on the sidelines. Nor was it a surprise that Utah won, 37-27.

California 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	UC Davis	83%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Colorado	61%	W
9/17	Fri	@	Nevada	55%	W
9/25	Sat	@	*Arizona	48%	L
10/9	Sat	vs.	*UCLA	57%	W
10/16	Sat	@	*Southern Cal	47%	L
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Arizona State	65%	W
10/30	Sat	@	*Oregon State	45%	L
11/6	Sat	@	*Washington State	73%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Oregon	36%	L
11/20	Sat	vs.	*Stanford	45%	L
11/27	Sat	vs.	*Washington	47%	L
Projection   Straight up: 6-6   Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook  The Pac-10 will be filled with parity again in 2010. With nearly every Pac-10 game close, the teams that lose the close games will suffer, and it looks like Cal might lose a lot of close ones.

They should start 3-0 and beat UCLA, ASU, and Washington State pretty easily. But five other Pac-10 games are close losses. This puts the Bears 6-6; due to the many close losses their cumulative projection actually comes out better at 7-5.

There is a big positive to this in that Cal's upside is an 11-1 season (only Oregon looks like a "sure" loss). Even if they split the close games that's 8 or 9 wins, approximately what Cal fans have become accustomed to over recent years.

I think the cumulative projection is essentially a lower limit for the team. Three of the close games are on the road; if they win the two home games in addition to their six "designated" wins that puts them at 8-4, which is what I expect.

38. Connecticut Huskies (Big East #4)     Polls: AP #31  USA/Coaches #33

2009 Results: Record: 8-5  Bowl: Beat S. Carolina 20-7 (Pappajohn's)  Poll finish: AP #35, USA #36
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #31    Success: #39    Overall: #32
UConn's season could be great or terrible depending on which way the wind blows.

Offense (8 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #21   '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #26
One of the two main running backs returns, and maybe only one of two quarterbacks?
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #60    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #55
Zach Fraser, or Cody Endres? That was the question all off-season, as in "Who should be UConn's quarterback in the fall?" Fraser started last season and his play was spotty until he was injured. Cody Endres took over and did very well—1,354 yards, 6 TDs, 4 interceptions, and a 64% completion rate. But he was injured, too; Fraser came back and played much better, finishing with 1,461 yards, 10 TDs and 9 interceptions. Overall Endres seemed to be the better player, as Fraser completed just 53% of his passes. But Endres may have made the point moot as he was suspended along with offensive line starter Erik Kuraczea for unannounced reasons. Speaking of the O-line, they were #15 in the country in adjusted sacks allowed and should be even better this season, though losing Kuraczea would diminish that. Two of the three top receivers are gone: Marcus Easley who had 893 yards and 8 touchdowns, and Brad Kanuch. Five return who had more than 110 receiving yards including Kashif Moore, Isaiah Moore, and tight end Ryan Griffin. Despite all the confusion the passing game should make moderate progress in Frazer's senior year and Endres could very well be back.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #24     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #35
Jordan Todman and Andre Dixon formed a power duo at running back for UConn, rushing for 1,188 and 1,093 yards respectively while each scoring 14 touchdowns. For all intents and purposed they were the Huskies' rushing game, as no one else had more than 5 carries. Dixon is gone but Todman returns to carry most of the load himself, though USC transfer D.J. Shoemate is eligible immediately. The offensive line was great last year and much of it returns intact: Moe Petrus, Zach Hurd, and Mike Ryan are back with half-time starter Mathieu Olivier and (maybe) Eric Kuraczea. The only major losses are Mike Hurt (a 4-year starter) and, again, maybe Kuraczea. Production will drop with the loss of a 1,000-yard rusher, but they've got a spare and things will be alright.

Defense (8 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #55    '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #35
Key players are gone but the bulk of talent returns to the defense.
• '09 Stats:  Adj. Rush Def: #63   Adj. Pass Def: #97   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #69   Sacks: #44
The defensive line got a gift but it was taken away. Starter Lindsey Witten departed along with his 11.5 sacks (1/3 of the team's total) so linebacker Greg Lloyd moved in to fill the gap. Unfortunately he injured a knee this summer and will redshirt was planning on redshirting before making an unexpected recovery. Therefore the line is heavy with talent as three more starters—Jesse Joseph, Kendall Reyes, and Twyon Martin—return. Look for the team's rushing defense ranking to soar though the team's sack totals decline. At linebacker Lloyd's two co-starters, Lawrence Wilson (#1 with 140 tackles; 5 sacks) and Scott Lutrus, are back. The secondary's biggest loss occurred mid-season when Jasper Howard was killed. Starters Robert McClain and Robert Vaughn (9 interceptions between them) move on leaving two sophomores, Jerome Junior and Blidi Wreh-Wilson in charge. None of the units is in trouble but they lose their sack and interception leaders; the defensive line should be very solid.

Kicking Game: Dave Taggert returns after making 14 of 23 field goals last season. Punter Desi Cullen (42.8 average) departs, and will be replaced by freshman Chad Cristen.
Return Game: UConn had three kick return touchdowns last year, two on kickoffs and one on a punt. Running backs Robbie Frey and Jordan Todman each took one back, averaging a fantastic 29.5 and 25.3 yards per return respectively. Departing D-back Robert McClain averaged 12.6 yards per return on punts after taking over for Jasper Howard last season. Gary Wilburn will be the main punt returner this year.
Coaching/Recruiting      '10 Recruiting Rank: #89
Randy Edsall continues to develop the program he's raised from I-A infancy. Recruiting hasn't been great the last few years but Edsall built the program on lesser names. Opinions on the current class are wide ranging so there are few consensus stars. Overall the class ranks last in the Big East. We'll watch as Edsall brings out the potential in its players over the next several years.

2009 Recap  Connecticut was just a few points per game away from being undefeated last season. Three more against North Carolina, four more against Pitt, five each against West Virginia and Rutgers, and three more against Cincinnati and they would have been 12-0. It could be the same story this season.

UConn 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	@	Michigan	52%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Texas Southern	99%	W
9/18	Sat	@	Temple	54%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	Buffalo	73%	W
10/2	Sat	vs.	Vanderbilt	69%	W
10/8	Fri	@	*Rutgers	51%	W
10/23	Sat	@	*Louisville	67%	W
10/29	Fri	vs.	*West Virginia	49%	L
11/11	Thu	vs.	*Pittsburgh	48%	L
11/20	Sat	@	*Syracuse	57%	W
11/27	Sat	vs.	*Cincinnati	51%	W
12/4	Sat	@	*South Florida	51%	W
Projection   Straight up: 10-2   Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook  Like last year, just a small boost could put UConn over the top this year to have a season like Cincinnati did last year. Every one of their "losses" on the board at left is a close game and many of their wins are narrow, too.

Rutgers, West Virginia, Pitt, Cincinnati, and USF could go either way. If that sounds familiar it's because they lost narrowly to four of those five teams last season. This time they could go 3-2 instead.

Several wins are close games, too: Michigan, Temple, and Syracuse. So UConn's record should fall somewhere between 4-8 and 12-0. Only Texas Southern, Buffalo, and Vanderbilt appear to be "safe" for them.

Game by game, this adds up to a 10-2 record. Accumulate the odds and it comes out to a less fantastic 7-5. Thus we'll say UConn will go about 8-4 or 9-3—but their standard deviation has a much wider range than most teams.

39. Arizona Wildcats (Pac-10 #7)     Polls: AP #35  USA/Coaches #29

2009 Results: Record: 8-5  Bowl: Lost to Nebraska 33-0 (Holiday)  Poll finish: AP #35 USA #35
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #33    Success: #20    Overall: #30
Yet another member of the "parity party" in the Pac-10 conference.

Offense (7 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #29   '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #20
Arizona's offense returns many key players and becomes top 25 quality.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #47    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #30
Nick Foles took over early last season and fan complaints that "we have no quarterback!" were quickly silenced. Foles completed a respectable 63% for 2,486 yards and 19 TDs against 9 interceptions. Matt Scott started the early games hitting just 57% with 1 TD and 3 ints. Leading receiver Juron Criner (582 yards) returns with #3 David Roberts but #2 Terrell Turner is gone and #4 Delashaun Dean was suspended and transferred. Four others who had over 100 receiving yards are back including starting tight end A.J. Simmons. The offensive line should continue to do an excellent job protecting Foles—they finished #9 in adjusted sacks allowed with just 9 on the year. Foles should have a strong junior year.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #33     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #30
Keola Antolin led the Wildcats with 637 yards while Nic Grigsby was 2nd with 567. Grigsby missed several games but still had a 7.2 per-carry average (to Antolin's 5.6). Backup QB Matt Scott was impressive as a runner with 309 and a 7.5 average. Greg Nwoko added 273. All are back and if Grigsby is healthy he should recapture his 2008 form (1,153 yards). The offensive line is in good shape with Colin Baxter, Vaughn Dotsy, and Adam Grant back and half-time starter Conan Amituanai moving into the lineup as Mike Diaz and Herman Hall depart. The Wildcats make only a small ranking move but there's actually a pretty big jump in projected yardage.

Defense (4 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #38    '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #86
The defense is deep but loses it's top players including all three starting linebackers.
• '09 Stats:  Adj. Rush Def: #28   Adj. Pass Def: #43   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #22   Sacks: #14
The Wildcat rushing defense was strong last year and with two starters back should still be good. They excelled at quarterback pressure chiefly because of Ricky Elmore (10.5 sacks) who returns and Earl Mitchell (6.5 sacks) who does not. Brooks Reed is back for his senior year as well. The defense's problem is at linebacker where all three starters are lost including #2 tackler Xavier Kelly. The secondary was solid last season and Trevin Wade (5 interceptions) and Robert Golden return but they lose #1 tackler Devin Ross (12 pass breakups). Almost all of the second string returns but the Wildcats lose their top four tacklers.

Kicking Game: Kicker Alex Zendejas (17 of 22 field goals) and punter Keenan Crier (41.5 average) are both back.
Return Game: Receiver William "Bug" Wright jacked up his punt return average to 17.5 with a touchdown return, as did Travis Cobb with his kickoff average (25.4). Both are back to do it again for the Wildcats.
Coaching/Recruiting      '10 Recruiting Rank: #34
Mike Stoops has finally gotten some level of acceptance from Arizona fans after back-to-back 8-5 seasons. Before that there was grumbling every time the team looked promising and faded down the stretch. 2008 was a make or break season and Stoops finally delivered but it was unsatisfying. Last season ended much the same but there were bigger moments such as the USC win. Recruiting has been better lately, too, with this class ranking 7th in the Pac-10. Though one top recruit, receiver Dexter Ransom, transferred to Utah the Wildcats picked up cornerback Shaq Richardson from UCLA after he got in trouble there.

2009 Recap  The Wildcats beat Central Michigan in the opener 19-7 and that win looked better as the season commenced. They went into Iowa with Scott still at QB and lost 27-17. Foles took over against Oregon State and led them to a 37-32 win, but against Washington a deflected ball bounced off his shoe and was intercepted giving the Huskies an amazing fluke win. The 'Cats beat Stanford and were 6-2 before losing to Cal 24-16. They took Oregon into double overtime, losing a heartbreaker than left the ZonaZoo ringing the field in anticipation of a win. But all was forgiven when Arizona beat rival Arizona State and USC in back-to-back games. Though they were crushed by Nebraska 33-0 the season was a winner.

Arizona 2010 schedule & forecast
9/3	Fri	@	Toledo	78%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Citadel	85%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	Iowa	49%	L
9/25	Sat	vs.	*California	52%	W
10/9	Sat	vs.	*Oregon State	51%	W
10/16	Sat	@	*Washington State	74%	W
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Washington	47%	L
10/30	Sat	@	*UCLA	50%	W
11/6	Sat	@	*Stanford	39%	L
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Southern Cal	52%	W
11/26	Fri	@	*Oregon	30%	L
12/2	Thu	vs.	*Arizona State	65%	W
Projection   Straight up: 8-4   Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook  This season looks like a winner, too, and like many Pac-10 teams Arizona could have a great year if the ball bounces their way.

Only four games look like solid wins, but only two are solid losses. Split the difference on the remainder and you have 7-5, which matches the cumulative projection.

We give Arizona wins over Cal, Oregon State, and USC in addition to the expected Toledo, Citadel, Washington State, and ASU wins. UCLA is a complete tossup with Iowa and Washington close. Arizona has the potential to go 10-2.

Given how the team has performed over the years and how bad their luck has been it's hard to imagine them winning all their close games. Unless you believe they are "due" for some massive amounts of good fortune, since they'd been relatively cursed in recent years.

Assuming that luck is independent of previous luck, the 'Cats should be a solid 7-5 team this year. You can play with the wins and losses—beat Iowa and lose to Cal? Lose to Oregon State but beat UCLA? beat Washington, lose to USC? etc.—but the end result should gravitate toward a seven win season.

40. Utah Utes (Mountain West #2)     Polls: AP #28  USA/Coaches #24(t)

2009 Results: Record: 10-3  Bowl: Beat Cal 37-27 (Poinsettia)  Poll finish: AP #18  USA #18
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #41    Success: #24    Overall: #38
The Utes will again have an excellent season under Kyle Whittingham.

Offense (8 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #44   '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #27
With two solid quarterbacks and and every runner back the Ute offense looks up.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #44    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #34
Statistically speaking there wasn't much difference between Terrance Cain and Jordan Wynn at quarterback. They combined for 3,000 yards in equal proportion to the games they started and each had about 2 TDs for each interception he threw. Cain led in completion rate 64% to 58% and unlike Wynn is a running threat. Regardless, it was Cain who was pulled despite the team's 6-1 record and replaced with freshman Wynn. The intangibles were with Wynn as he led the offense better and he established himself as the starter for 2010. He'll be without three of the top four receivers including leader David Reed (1,188 yards) but Jereme Brooks (696) is back as is starting tight end Kedrick Moeai who had 4 catches, two of them for touchdowns. The O-line (#44 in pass protection last year) should take another step up and Wynn will have a stronger year. Plus the Utes can be safe in the knowledge that there is a very capable backup in reserve should he be needed.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #54     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #36
Other than Eddie Wide (1,069 yards, 12 TDs) the Utes didn't have any big ground gainers, but they had a variety of them. Fullback-sized Matt Asiata had 330 in 4 games; QB Cain was next with 318 (421 gross); all-name candidates Sauson Shakerin and Shaky Smithson had 198 and 99. All are back, though Smithson moves to receiver. The offensive line loses 4-year starter Zane Beadles but Zane Taylor, Caleb Schlauderlaff, Tony Bergstrom, and Tevita Stevens are back and overall the run blocking could be better and Wide and co. will amp up their yardage. While Cain won't see nearly as much time, Asiata will be much more productive with a full season, his sixth.

Defense (3 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #32    '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #72
Heavy losses among the starters outweight most of the 2nd and 3rd string returning.
• '09 Stats:  Adj. Rush Def: #52   Adj. Pass Def: #18   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #20   Sacks: #55
The Utes lose Kenape Eliapo and Koa Misi (5 sacks) from the D-line while Derrick Shelby and Sealver Siliga return with part-time starter Dave Kruger. Shelby tore his ACL last year but is close to 100% now. The rushing defense may suffer as all three linebackers are gone including their top two tacklers Stevenson Sylvester and Mike Wright. The secondary was excellent last year as, despite a mediocre pass rush, Utah excelled in both per-game and per-attempt adjusted yards. With only Brandon Burton (10 pass breakups) back and Robert Johnson's 6 interceptions gone they won't be in the top 25 in those categories anymore. In all the top four tacklers are gone and both the rushing and passing defense will get worse.

Kicking Game: Utah had a stellar kicking game with punter Sean Sellwood (42.9 average) and placekicker Joe Phillips, who made 20 out of 22 field goals. Amazingly these two did a great job of replacing Louie Sakoda, and both return for 2010.
Return Game: Shaky Smithson participated on both the punt and kickoff fielding teams with a 9.5 average in the former and 24.7 in the latter. He and the rest of the return team...return.
Coaching/Recruiting      '10 Recruiting Rank: #48
Kyle Whittingham followed Urban Meyer as head coach here and has done an excellent job, even duplicating Meyer's 2004 feat of an undefeated season. This year they're second again in the Mountain West in recruiting, though a distant 2nd to BYU. He got one of their top '10 recruits via Arizona as WR Dexter Cullen transferred and will be eligible this season. They've lost two other top recruits, however: RB Princeton Collins to academics, and QB Tyler Shreve whose scholarship was revoked after he bizarrely attacked his baseball coach.

2009 Recap  Looking back at Utah's season there were really no upsets. They beat the teams they were supposed to beat (Utah State, San Jose State, Louisville, Colorado State, UNLV, Wyoming, New Mexico, SDSU), lost to the high-ranked teams (Oregon, TCU, BYU), and edged some good teams (Air Force, California). If they had played Oregon (17-24) and BYU (23-26 OT) at home instead of on the road the season could have been even better, though they were perhaps fortunate to face Air Force and Wyoming at home.

Utah 2010 schedule & forecast
9/2	Thu	vs.	Pittsburgh	46%	L
9/11	Sat	vs.	*UNLV	71%	W
9/18	Sat	@	*New Mexico	83%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	San Jose State	90%	W
10/9	Sat	@	Iowa State	59%	W
10/16	Sat	@	*Wyoming	61%	W
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Colorado State	69%	W
10/30	Sat	@	*Air Force	53%	W
11/6	Sat	vs.	*TCU	29%	L
11/13	Sat	@	Notre Dame	48%	L
11/20	Sat	@	*San Diego State	64%	W
11/27	Sat	vs.	*Brigham Young	56%	W
Projection   Straight up: 9-3   Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook  The Utes kick off the season by hosting Pitt, a very important game for both teams. Win it and Utah could very well open the year 7-0, setting up a huge showdown with TCU, whom they also get at home.

Notre Dame is another pivotal game and after that the Utes should beat San Diego State as well as BYU at home. Adding up the wins and losses Utah could be 9-3 once again, fitting for a team that is nearly the same strength as last season.

Like last year it could be better if they win a couple of key close games. Beat Pitt and Notre Dame and Utah is looking at 11-1. Conversely, lose to Air Force and BYU and they fall to 7-5, which matches the cumulative projection.

In this case the cumulative projection likely forms the worst-case scenario. With so many easy games on the schedule Utah should have no trouble reaching 8 wins and should finish with 9 or 10. I don't see them beating TCU, however, even at home and probably won't enter that game undefeated; I sense that if they do beat Pitt they'll fall to Air Force.