2010 Pre-season Rankings - #31 to #35: Mississippi State, Oregon State, Cincinnati, Boston College, Houston

The SportsRatings 2010 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams. These rankings predict how good the teams will be in 2009 before taking schedule into account, then the preview explores how well they should do given their schedule.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team. Two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win (straight up), and also an aggregate projection that allows for the uncertainty across a season (cumulative). The expectation for the team's season lies somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #31 to #35. To see the full list, click here.

31. Mississippi State Bulldogs (SEC #8; West #5)     Polls: USA/Coaches #49

2009 Results: Record: 5-7      Bowl: None      Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #39    Success: #57    Overall: #40
The Bulldog defense ought to save the day as the offense flounders.

Offense (6 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #36   '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #59
The Bulldogs won't lament the loss of their starting QB, but Anthony Dixon is another matter.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #108    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #113
To say the least, Mississippi State had quarterback issues in 2009. Tyson Lee passed for fewer than 1,500 yards and had just 4 touchdown throws but a whopping 14 interceptions. Backup Chris Relf never started but had 5 TDs against 3 interceptions, so if he takes over things might run a bit smoother but he only completed 54% of his passes. The Bulldogs lack depth at receiver but three of the top four return including Chad Bumphis (375 yards) and tight end Marcus Green (3 TDs). The O-line should offer good protection this year but don't expect fireworks from Relf.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #6     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #15
The Bulldog offense hitched its wagon to Anthony Dixon last year and he delivered 1,391 yards and 12 touchdowns. Without him they'll need a new star which could be Robert Elliot (#4 last year with 221 yards) or JUCO Vic Ballard. Backup QB Relf is a great runner and averaged 6.6 yards per carry while finishing #2 with 500 yards; if he starts that's a boon for the rushing attack. The offensive line will be sturdy, too; though they lose 4-year guard Craig Jenkins they've got four upperclassmen returning: Seniors J.C. Brignone and Derek Sherrod and juniors Addison Lawrence and Quentin Saulsberry. The Bulldogs will no longer have a top ten rushing attack but it should remain top 25 quality.

Defense (6 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #36    '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #23
Jamar Chaney is gone but 16 of the top 20 tacklers return.
• '09 Stats:  Adj. Rush Def: #23   Adj. Pass Def: #61   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #70   Sacks: #73
Pernell McPhee (5 sacks) is the only full-time starter that returns to the defensive line but several part-timers are back and should keep the rushing defense solid. The big loss is Jamar Chaney at linebacker (#1 tackler) but K.J. Wright and Chris White (#2 and #3 tacklers) are back. The secondary loses Marcus Washington but is loaded with Charles Mitchell (4 int) back along with half-time starters Johnathan Banks (4 int), Zach Smith, Maurice Langston, and Damein Anderson, while Corey Broomfield led the team with 6 interceptions as a freshman. The lagging pass defense should improve a lot and with it the overall unit.

Kicking Game: Punter Heath Hutchins averaged 39.7 yards per punt last year and returns with both placekickers, Sean Brauchle (6 of 9 field goals) and Derek DePasquale (10 of 12).
Return Game: Wide receiver Leon Berry handled the majority of kicks last year, with a 7.7 average on punt returns and 26.7 yards per kickoff including one touchdown return. Chad Bumphis also returned kicks and may be primary return man this year.
Coaching/Recruiting      '10 Recruiting Rank: #32
Dan Mullen didn't have much to work with on offense last year other than Dixon, and it may be a while before he has a great passing quarterback which he'd like for his spread option system. The best players from this year's class are linemen: Damien Robinson on offense and Kaleb Eulls on defense, both blue chip recruits. He did sign Dylan Favre, Brett's nephew who is more of a project. Tyler Russell from last year's top 25 recruiting class is a better prospect and will compete for the QB job this season.

2009 Recap  Many of the teams that Mississippi State lost to last season had double-digit wins (Georgia Tech, Houston, Florida, Alabama) and the rest (Auburn, LSU, Arkansas) had at least eight. In the second half of the season the Bulldogs managed three impressive wins, beating Middle Tennessee 27-6, Kentucky 31-24, and rival Ole Miss 41-27. But the schedule was murder and they finished 5-7.

Miss St. 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Memphis	82%	W
9/9	Thu	vs.	*Auburn	44%	L
9/18	Sat	@	*LSU	43%	L
9/25	Sat	vs.	*Georgia	53%	W
10/2	Sat	vs.	Alcorn State	99%	W
10/9	Sat	@	Houston	49%	L
10/16	Sat	@	*Florida	33%	L
10/23	Sat	vs.	UAB	65%	W
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	59%	W
11/13	Sat	@	*Alabama	30%	L
11/20	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	35%	L
11/27	Sat	@	*Mississippi	53%	W
Projection   Straight up: 6-6   Cumulative: 6-6

2010 Outlook  The pre-SEC schedule is a bit kinder this year. They play another I-AA team (lowly Alcorn State) and Houston on the road, but instead of Georgia Tech and MTSU they have Memphis and UAB. The Bulldogs should be at least 3-1 outside of the SEC and have a shot at Houston (a trial by fire for the new pass defense).

The SEC is another matter. Once again wins are sparse but they could actually beat Georgia at home and should beat Kentucky again. LSU and Mississippi are not out of reach but will be tough on the road.

Thus a repeat of 5-7 could happen but the Bulldogs have a decent chance of being bowl eligible. Four of their wins are pretty solid while three of the losses are seen to be close. With luck or a few upsets they could win 7 overall; the cumulative projection nearly predicts this but rounds down to 6-6. These projections count on the defense stepping up quite a bit, particularly the pass defense. If that doesn't happen the Bulldogs won't be going anywhere and the Old Miss game will have to be their bowl game again.

 

32. Oregon State Beavers (Pac-10 #4)     Polls: AP #24  USA/Coaches #22

2009 Results: Record: 8-5  Bowl: Lost to BYU 44-20 (Las Vegas Bowl)  Poll finish: AP #27 USA #27
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #30    Success: #33    Overall: #31
The Beavers are in the wide open Pac 10 race but have a killer pre-conference schedule.

Offense (8 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #25   '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #26
Despite losing a very good quarterback the Rodgers brothers are back so all is well.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #32    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #46
Sean Canfield was one of the most unheralded great passers in college football last year. While the Rodgers brothers got all the attention Canfield threw for 3,271 yards and 21 touchdowns against just 7 interceptions with a 68% completion rate. Canfield is gone as is Lyle Moevao who started in 2008. Last year's mop-up Ryan Katz, now a sophomore, will take over since his main competition, Virginia transfer Peter Lalich, transferred again. Lucky for him that the Rodgers brothers are back. James led with 1,034 yards and 9 TDs while Jacquizz was third with 522. #2 Damola Adeniji (807) departs but Joe Halahuni (486) means three of the main four pass catchers are back. Also back are sophomore Jordan Bishop, starting tight end Brady Camp, and Darrell Catchings who had 386 yards in '07. The offensive line should offer improved protection as four starters return. Though Katz likely won't match Canfield's efficiency he'll have time to find some of his great targets.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #57     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #38
Quizz Rodgers proved that 2008 was no fluke by rushing for 1,440 yards and an amazing 21 touchdowns in 2009 as a sophomore. Brother James was the 2nd leading rusher with 303 (just 1 TD though) as they averaged 5.3 yards per carry. Jovan Stevenson matched their average and had 137 total but he's out for the season with a shoulder injury. The offensive line loses Gregg Peat but full-time starters Alex Linnenkohl, Grant Johnson, Mike Remmers, and Michael Philipp return along with all five backups. Jacquizz Rodgers could have one of the best rushing totals in the nation this season.

Defense (7 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #47    '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #41
Two star linebackers are gone but 9 of the next 10 top tacklers return for the Beaver D.
• '09 Stats:  Adj. Rush Def: #17   Adj. Pass Def: #63   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #41   Sacks: #75
The Beaver defensive line is set this year with senior starters Brennan Olander and Stephen Paea (3 sacks) back and half-time starters Kevin Frahm and Gabe Miller taking the other slots. At linebacker there is more concern as the defense loses its two top tacklers, Keaton Kristick and David Pa'aluhi. But Dwight Roberson returns and Keith Pankey has fully recovered from his Achilles' heel issue last year. The secondary should be solid with James Dockery, Cameron Collins, and Lance Mitchell (3 int) back.

Kicking Game: Johnny Hecker was an adequate punter last year (40.1 average) while Justin Kahut was a very solid kicker, making 22 of 27 field goals. Both are back though Kahut is still recovering from a summer car accident.
Return Game: James Rodgers excelled at both punt and kickoff returns last year to the tune of 11.6 and 22.3 yards per attempt. He will continue to perform both chores in his senior year.
Coaching/Recruiting      '10 Recruiting Rank: #70
Oregon State's recruiting has been at or near the bottom of the Pac-10 for several years now. There are some good recruits in this year's small class but none are true blue chips. Head coach Mike Riley has said that the only true freshman that will definitely play this season are grayshirts from last season. Riley continues to win with what he's got: Oregon State has had just one losing season in his 9 years here.

2009 Recap  Things didn't look great when the Beavers just got past UNLV 23-21, then lost to Cincinnati 28-18. They even kicked off the Pac-10 season with a loss to Arizona. But as it turned out Arizona was a good team and Cincy was a great team, and from 2-2 the Beavers would soon be 8-3 and playing rival Oregon for a spot in the Rose Bowl. They lost 37-33 and for the second time didn't go to Pasedena because of the Ducks.

Oregon State 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	@	TCU	27%	L
9/18	Sat	vs.	Louisville	75%	W
9/25	Sat	@	Boise State	27%	L
10/2	Sat	vs.	*Arizona State	67%	W
10/9	Sat	@	*Arizona	49%	L
10/16	Sat	@	*Washington	43%	L
10/30	Sat	vs.	*California	55%	W
11/6	Sat	@	*UCLA	51%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Washington State	81%	W
11/20	Sat	vs.	*Southern Cal	55%	W
11/27	Sat	@	*Stanford	41%	L
12/4	Sat	vs.	*Oregon	38%	L
Projection   Straight up: 6-6   Cumulative: 6-6

2010 Outlook  Oregon State has just about the worst possible pre-conference schedule, going on the road to take on both TCU and Boise State. In between they should win at home against Louisville.

The Pac-10 experience for the Beavers will be much the same as it is for most of the league: many close games and an up-in-the-air race.

Arizona State and Washington State will be the cellar teams that OSU can handle, while Cal and USC at home look good with UCLA on the road a possibility. Arizona on the road is just as close. Washington, Stanford, and Oregon (again) look like losses.

But all of the above can be scrambled around. The Beavers should be about 5-4 in conference in some configuration of wins and losses, ranging from 2-7 to 7-2 due to all the close games. That makes them anywhere from 3-9 to 8-4. Both the straight up and cumulative projections give them six wins and that looks about right to me, though there is a lot of leeway either direction.

33. Cincinnati Bearcats (Big East #3)     Polls: AP #26  USA/Coaches #26

2009 Results: Record: 12-1  Bowl: Lost to Florida 51-24 (Sugar)  Poll finish: AP #8  USA #9
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #16    Success: #4    Overall: #8
Cincinnati won't be as good as last year's dream team but the play of Zach Collaros could have the Bearcats approaching last season's success.

Offense (6 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #5   '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #12
It might not be top 5 in production without Tony Pike and Mardy Gilyard but the offense behind Zach Collaros will still be near the top 10.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #7    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #18
Tony Pike had over 2,500 yards, 29 touchdowns and just 6 interceptions last year but was injured once again and backup Zach Collaros was incredible in relief, completing 75% of his passes for 1,434 yards and a 10:2 TD:int ratio. With Pike gone there is no longer a quarterback controversy. Collaros will be without star receiver Mardy Gilard (1,191 yards, 11 TDs) however, which is a huge loss. But Armon Binns (888 w/11 TDs), D.J. Woods (640) and tight end Ben Guidugli (364) return. Marcus Barnett (over 800 yds. in '07) switches back to receiver full time and two USC transfers—Vidal Hazelton and Brandon Carswell—become eligible this year. The offensive line should continue to provide great protection for the mobile Collaros, who should have well over 3,500 passing yards this season. Though the loss of Gilyard suggest a slip in production, Collaros might be good enough to keep that from happening.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #60     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #54
Isaiah Pead was the Bearcats leading rusher with 806 yards last season and he's back, though Jacob Ramsey started more games but was 2nd with 439. Ramsey is gone but Pead is back and his backup will be John Goebel who was injured most of last year but had over 600 yards in 2008. Another boon for the rushing game is QB Collaros, who averaged six yards per carry (344 net). The offensive line should be excellent again as starters Sam Griffin, Jason Kelce, and Alex Hoffman return. They lose Chris Jurek and Jeff Linkenbach but all the backups return to a line that allowed just 15 sacks last year. The running game will increase dependant upon how emphasized it is in new coach Butch Jones' plans.

Defense (5 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #49    '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #66
Having 5 starters back on defense isn't ideal, but it's 4 returning starters better than last year.
• '09 Stats:  Adj. Rush Def: #48   Adj. Pass Def: #101   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #52   Sacks: #26
The defense returns just one starter to the defensive line, Derek Wolfe (5 sacks). They lose Alex Daniels (8.5 sacks) and Ricardo Matthews (9 tackles for loss) and expand to a 4-man line to boot. Two starting linebackers return, J.K Schaffer (100 tackles) and Walter Stewart, and two are gone including #1 tackler Andre Revels (109 tackles) but they have just three slots to fill. The secondary welcomes back Drew Frey and Dominique Battle. Overall four of the top six tacklers are back but nos. 7 throught 10 are all gone.

Kicking Game: Jacob Rogers was adequate but no superstar as he doubled as punter and placekicker. He averaged a decent 41.6 yards per kick (only 33.7 net) and made 13 of 19 field goals. Patrick O'Donnell will probably take over full time at punter this season.
Return Game: Mardy Gilyard's loss as a receiver is equalled by his loss as a return man. Gilyard returned three kicks for touchdowns—two kickoffs and a punt. Without him Darrin Williams will field more kickoffs; he had a touchdown in just 8 returns last year. Receiver D.J. Woods will replace Gilyard as punt fielder.
Coaching/Recruiting      '10 Recruiting Rank: #65
Brian Kelly didn't get the most-hyped recruits during his stint here and in the transition year to Butch Jones recruiting dropped a bit, putting Cincy near the bottom of the Big East this round. Wide receiver Dy'Juan Lewis is this class' consensus blue chip and will continue Cincy's recent tradition of great receivers. Jones arrives from Central Michigan where he coached Dan LeFevour the last four years, so he'll feel right at home with Collaros, another prolific, accurate passer who can run the ball extremely well.

2009 Recap  Twelve wins in a row and then a loss. That's the nutshell version of Cincinnati's amazing 2009 season. Starting with a blowout of Rutgers—the team that was supposed to be able to run the table on its easy schedule—the Bearcats didn't look back, slipping past Oregon State and Fresno State, whipping South Florida as they ran through the Big East, edging UConn 47-45, West Virginia 24-21, and finally mounting a huge comeback to beat Pitt 45-44. Shut out of the national title game they faced Florida under terrible conditions: Brian Kelly had been hired by Notre Dame and the team (especially Gilyard) was not happy; and Florida was fired up to "say goodbye" to their poor ailing coach Urban Meyer. The Gators won 51-24.

Cincinnati 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	@	Fresno State	56%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Indiana State	99%	W
9/16	Thu	@	North Carolina State	60%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	Oklahoma	35%	L
10/9	Sat	vs.	Miami (Ohio)	74%	W
10/15	Fri	@	*Louisville	68%	W
10/22	Fri	vs.	*South Florida	59%	W
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Syracuse	65%	W
11/13	Sat	@	*West Virginia	45%	L
11/20	Sat	vs.	*Rutgers	59%	W
11/27	Sat	@	*Connecticut	49%	L
12/4	Sat	vs.	*Pittsburgh	50%	L
Projection   Straight up: 8-4   Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook  Cincinnati compensates for a big drop in talent with an easy schedule. True, they play Oklahoma (hosting them after traveling there two years ago) but aside from that they should have four wins. The opener at Fresno State is no gimme but the subsequent contest with I-AA Indiana State (1-10) is. N.C. State and Miami (Ohio) should be victims as well.

From there Cincy has likely wins with Louisville, and USF, Syracuse, and Rutgers at home. The last two games are tossups and they might lose both to finish 8-4, but winning one of UConn and Pitt would make them 9-3 on the season, not bad at all.

The cumulative projection sees more doubt in many of these wins and assigns a 7-5 record as the most likely outcome. But that seems like a lower limit given all the solid wins on the chart. In fact with only the Oklahoma game as a "sure" loss, Cincy could manage to go 11-1. Viewed that way, 9-3 seems pretty likely. And if Collaros dodges injury and plays as well as I think he might, then 10-2 or 11-1 isn't so crazy.

 

34. Boston College Eagles (ACC #7; Atlantic #3)     Polls: AP #46  USA/Coaches #40

2009 Results: Record: 8-5    Bowl: Lost to USC 24-13 (Emerald)    Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #42    Success: #37    Overall: #43
The Eagles improve marginally on offense and the defense should be great.

Offense (8 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #64   '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #51
Questions remain at quarterback but the running back position is solid.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #99    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #82
Quarterback Dave Shinskie returns after a mediocre 2009 where he edged above 2,000 yards and 15 TDs but had 14 interceptions and completed just 52% of his attempts. Worse, the offense loses top receiver Rich Gunnell (880 yards last year) and #2 Colin Larmond (596 yards) is out for the year with a knee injury. That leaves starting tight end Chris Pantale as the only one of the top four receivers back. Billy Flutie, Doug's son, will likely start this year after catching just 5 passes last year—though 2 were for touchdowns. The good news is that four starters return on the offensive line and should protect the QB even better this year (#25 last season). Shinskie, a sophomore in label only as he is 26 years old, should improve this season but don't expect fireworks.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #61     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #50
The Eagles star last year was Montel Harris, who rushed for 1,457 yards and 14 touchdowns. Though backup Josh Haden is gone and #3 rusher Rolandan Finch had knee surgery and will miss 2010, Harris will be running behind and even better offensive line this season. They lose Matt Tennant but return 3-year starter Anthony Castonzo, Rich Lapham, Thomas Claiborne—all seniors—and Nathan Richman. All five backups return, too, and Harris is in the running to be the nation's leading rusher.

Defense (6 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #21    '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #11
Mark Herzlich's return is the story of the year.
• '09 Stats:  Adj. Rush Def: #46   Adj. Pass Def: #34   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #14   Sacks: #99
Seniors Alex Albright and Damik Scafe return to anchor the 4-man Eagle defensive line. At linebacker they lose Mike McLaughlin but get back Luke Kuechly who had an astronomical 158 tackles (more than twice as many as the #2) and 12 tackles for loss. Half-time starter Mike Morrisey returns, too, but the big news is the comeback of Mark Herzlich who battled bone cancer last year. He's been further hobbled by a fractured foot but should be good to go early in the season. Two starting members of last year's solid secondary—Wes Davis and DeLeon Gause—return. Despite having a defense with a very poor pass rush (18 sacks, #99 adjusted in the nation) the Eagles finished #14 in pass yards yielded per-attempt (adjusted for opposition). They might slip a bit in that category but a stronger front seven should make the defense better overall.

Kicking Game: B.C. will replace excellent kicker Steve Aponavicius (13 of 14 field goals made) with either freshman Nate Freese or punter Ryan Quigley, who averaged 40.8 yards per punt.
Return Game: Rich Gunnell was also primary punt returner, and he averaged 13.7 yards per return with one touchdown. RB Jeff Smith handled the most kickoffs to the tune of 22.1 yards. Montel Harris may take over kickoffs while corner DeLeon Gauss handles punts.
Coaching/Recruiting      '10 Recruiting Rank: #52
Frank Spaziani took over Boston College under tough circumstances last year after the firing of Jeff Jagodzinski who had 20 wins in just 2 years. The transition recruiting class was poor but this year's is much better. There are solid players though none is among the top blue chip prospects and overall the ranking is still low for the ACC.

2009 Recap  Boston College didn't have a winning streak longer than 2 games last year but still finished the regular season 8-4. They didn't lose to any teams with a losing record (6-6 Notre Dame was the worst) and beat only two teams (Florida State and Central Michigan) who had winning records. Matched with USC in the Emerald Bowl they lost 24-13.

Boston College 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Weber State	74%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Kent St	69%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	*Virginia Tech	36%	L
10/2	Sat	vs.	Notre Dame	56%	W
10/9	Sat	@	*North Carolina State	59%	W
10/16	Sat	@	*Florida State	39%	L
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Maryland	61%	W
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Clemson	46%	L
11/6	Sat	@	*Wake Forest	56%	W
11/13	Sat	@	*Duke	58%	W
11/20	Sat	vs.	*Virginia	62%	W
11/27	Sat	@	Syracuse	58%	W
Projection   Straight up: 9-3   Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook  The Eagles have a kind pre-ACC schedule, with I-AA Weber State followed by Kent State, Notre Dame at home this year and a final game at Syracuse. That ought to be four wins, three at the least, out of conference.

The ACC is another matter as Virginia Tech at home and FSU on the road look like losses, while Clemson will be tough. But N.C. State and Maryland are probable wins and B.C. might finish with three in a row against Wake, Duke, and Virginia.

That would put them at 9-3, one better than 2009. The cumulative projection rests at 7-5, but not too many of the wins are close games. Notre Dame and Wake Forest, perhaps, but the Clemson game is winnable too. That leaves seven pretty solid wins and two that aren't exactly forecast to be tossups. Thus 9 wins isn't a stretch at all, and 10 wins is probably just as likely as B.C. falling to 7-5 this year.

And this is without expectation of great quarterback play—just slightly less mediocre play. Montel Harris must stay healthy, and the defense has to be as tough as we think it will be. Even though B.C. won't compete for the ACC title they'll have another satisfying winning season.

 

35. Houston Cougars (C-USA #1; West #1)     Polls: AP #30  USA/Coaches #27

2009 Results: Record: 10-4  Bowl: Lost to Air Force 47-20 (Armed Forces)  Poll finish: USA #33
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #44    Success: #49    Overall: #45
Houston will continue to win games with offense, and they'll win a lot of them.

Offense (8 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #7   '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #6
With Heisman Trophy candidate Keenum at the helm the offense will be just as explosive.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #1    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #1
Houston passed for over 6,000 yards in 2009 and 5,671 of it was Case Keenum's doing. Keenum completed 70% of his attempts for 44 touchdowns and a relatively mild 15 interceptions. Backup Cotton Turner did well, too (75%, 3 TD, 0 int) so in case Case pulls a Sam Bradford the Cougar system shouldn't completely fall apart without him. Three returning receivers topped 1,000 yards: James Cleveland (1,214, 14 TDs), Tyron Carrier (7 TDs), and Patrick Edwards (6 TDs). They do lose Charles Sims' and Chaz Rodriguez' combined 1,283 yards but Bryce Beal and Kerrie Johnson (combined 548) can step up. The offensive line gave great protection (18 sacks) especially considering the number of attempts and should be just as good. Keenum could actually top his '09 numbers (with the potential for an outrageous 6,500 yards if the Cougars play 14 games), but even a conservative estimate has him becoming the NCAA's all-time yardage leader.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #93     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #86
The entire Houston running back corps was set to return before Charles Sims was found ineligible. It's a cliché to say they won't miss a step without him, but it's true. It's also true that they would gain a step more if they had him back. Sims had 698 yards and 9 TDs to freshman Bryce Beall's 670. Keenum was the #3 gainer with 158 net yards and WR Carrier next with 125. So it's a bit of a dropoff between the running backs from Sims (5.3 ave.) and Beall (4.8) to Chris Wilson (105 yds, 4.4 ave.). The offensive line should be a bit stronger as three starters—Roy Watts, Jordan Shoemaker, and Chris Thompson—return. While the Cougars lose Carl Barnett and Jarve Dean, they get defensive line starter Isaiah Thompson so it's similar to having four starters back. Houston didn't depend on the run last year and won't this year, but they're in pretty decent shape despite losing Sims.

Defense (5 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #96    '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #98
Last year's poor defensive showing might be repeated in 2010.
• '09 Stats:  Adj. Rush Def: #117   Adj. Pass Def: #84   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #100   Sacks: #85
Houston's Achilles' heel last year was their rushing defense; Donald Buckram easily smashing his way through the defensive line last year in UTEP's win over the Cougars was a sight to behold. Things might not get any better this year as they lose Tyrell Graham (7 sacks) and Zeke Riser while Isaiah Thompson moves to the offensive line. That leaves David Hunter alone among last year's starters, but switching to a 3-4 defense leaves fewer gaps to fill. And the linebacker corps is solid: Marcus McGraw (#1 tackler w/156) is back with Phillip Steward, and '08 starter Matt Nicholson returns for his senior year after redshirting '09. They lose #2 tackler C.J. Cavness (143 tackles) and they do have 4 slots to fill. The secondary had its troubles in 2009 and loses Brandon Brinkley (12 pass breakups) but Nick Saenz (114 tackles) and Jamal Robinson (5 interceptions) return. In all there's not much improvement here, though they shouldn't be any worse.

Kicking Game: Houston used multiple kickers in 2009. Matt Hogan was a perfect 12 of 12 on field goals but missed 5 extra points, while Jordan Mannisto hit just 6 of 10 field goals but 24 of 26 PATs. Both are back so they can take their pick again but Hogan appears to have the job and Mannisto will take over as punter from Chase Turner, who averaged 42.6 yards per punt and departs.
Return Game: Receiver Tyron Carrier was one of the most dangerous return men in the country last year; he averaged a solid 10.4 yards per punt return and 29.0 per kickoff with a whopping four touchdown returns. He's back to create more excitement this year.
Coaching/Recruiting      '10 Recruiting Rank: #41
Kevin Sumlin picked right up where Art Briles left off with 18 wins in two seasons. This year's recruiting class is the best in the Conference USA. One of his best recruits is Matangi Tonga, who played at BYU before leaving on a mission and returning to junior college. He'll be a big help on the defensive line.

2009 Recap  When Houston was good, they were really good because of their offense. When they weren't good it was usually because of the defense. Upsetting Oklahoma State and Texas Tech back-to-back put Houston on the college football map last season. But the very next game their inability to stop the run killed them as they fell to lowly UTEP 58-41. Another winning streak (5 games) commenced which included exciting shootouts with Southern Miss (50-43) and Tulsa (46-45), both last-minute comeback wins. They lost to Central Florida, though, killing their top 25 buzz, and the season ended on down notes as East Carolina beat them in the C-USA title game and Air Force ran all over them in the Armed Forces Bowl as interceptions plagued Keenum in both contests.

Houston 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Texas State	84%	W
9/10	Fri	vs.	*UTEP	81%	W
9/18	Sat	@	UCLA	52%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	*Tulane	95%	W
10/9	Sat	vs.	Mississippi State	51%	W
10/16	Sat	@	*Rice	70%	W
10/23	Sat	@	*SMU	61%	W
10/30	Sat	@	*Memphis	74%	W
11/5	Fri	vs.	*Central Florida	58%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Tulsa	66%	W
11/20	Sat	@	*Southern Miss	54%	W
11/27	Sat	@	Texas Tech	34%	L
Projection   Straight up: 11-1   Cumulative: 8-4

2010 Outlook  Houston has an even better team this year with an easier schedule, at least at the beginning. Three of their first four are gimmes, and that includes UTEP whom they should pummel at home. UCLA and Mississippi State should be close but the Cougars can win them.

After that the C-USA offers little resistance and Houston should win five in a row rather easily, with one last tough game at Southern Miss. Their final game—Texas Tech on the road—is where their dreams of going undefeated will likely come to and end. As Houston gets revenge at home against Texas-El Paso, so does Texas Tech get revenge on the Cougars.

Of course the dream of going undefeated will probably end long before that. It's possible that the 11-1 projection comes true, but with Houston's defense remaining the same liability that it was last year they're bound to have a slip-up or lose one or more of the closer games listed, and the cumulative projection of 8-4 reflects this. I think either UCLA, Mississippi State, or Southern Miss (another revenge scenario) will beat the Cougars who should still finish a solid 10-2 before the C-USA title game. Since UCLA will be hobbled with injuries early on and Houston didn't lose at home last year, a 10- or 11-game winning streak isn't out of the question, but without a solid defense they'll fall eventually.