2010 Pre-season Rankings - #9 Ohio State, #10 Nebraska

The SportsRatings 2010 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams. These rankings predict how good the teams will be in 2009 before taking schedule into account, then the preview explores how well they should do given their schedule.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team. Two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win (straight up), and also an aggregate projection that allows for the uncertainty across a season (cumulative). The expectation for the team's season lies somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams #9 and #10. To see the full list, click here.

9. Ohio State Buckeyes (Big Ten #1)     Polls: AP #2  USA/Coaches #2

2009 Results: Record: 11-2   Bowl: Beat Oregon 26-17 (Rose)   Poll finish: AP #5  USA #5
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #11    Success: #5    Overall: #7
Yet another nearly-undefeated season is in store for the Buckeyes.

Offense (9 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #37   '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #15
Terrelle Pryor tries again to live up to the hype of being the nation's top prospect in '08.
• Passing Game:    '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #95    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #48
This is the year that Terrelle Pryor is supposed to live up to his promise. Two years ago he took over as starter but he was just a freshman so his shortcomings were glossed over as his raw ability awed onlookers. Last year he was declared "overrated" by short-sighted pundits after a mid-season loss, but he finished the year strong and now has everyone expecting Vince Young-type greatness once again. As a passer he's been decidedly unspectacular, throwing last year for 2,000 yards and 18 touchdowns with 11 interceptions and completing 56%. Now a junior, he has his top three targets back in DeVier Posey (828 yards, 8 TDs), Dane Sanzenbacher (570 yards) and tailback Brandon Saine (224). The Buckeyes lose Duron Carter (who transferred to a junior college), Ray Small, and starting tight end Jake Ballard (501 yards total) but the combination of returning talent and a stronger offensive line will allow Pryor to pick up the pace of the passing game to more than respectable levels.
• Ground Game:    '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #20     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #9
Pryor was a better runner than passer in 2009, leading the team with 779 net yards; subtract sack yardage and he would have had around 1,000 yards. Brandon Saine was the top running back with 739 and Dan "Boom" Herron was a close third with 600. That's over 2,000 yards for the top three Buckeyes, and Jordan Hall added another 248. All of the above return, and factoring in the offensive line it should be a banner year on the ground for the Bucks. They lose only Jim Cordle, with senior Bryant Browing, ex-Michigan lineman Justin Boren (also a senior), Mike Brewster, and J.B. Shugarts all back. They should open holes for the running backs and though Pryor may or may not run as much they should cut down on the team's 24 sacks. Ohio State should be a top ten rushing team in 2010.

Defense (6 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #6   '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #8
Ohio State's tough defense remains almost as tough as it was last year.
• '09 Stats:  Adj. Rush Def: #2   Adj. Pass Def: #21   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #6   Sacks: #22
Ohio State had one of the top rushing defenses in the country last year but they might slide out of the top ten this season. Only one starter, Cameron Hayward (6.5 sacks) returns to the front four as two linemen leave for the NFL includin Thaddeus Gibson (4 sacks + 9 tackles for loss). The two returning linebackers may be able to pick up the slack though: Ross Homan (108 tackles, 5 interceptions) and Brian Rolle (7 tackles for loss) were the teams #1 and #2 tacklers. The OSU pass defense was fantastic, too, ranking #6 in per-attempt figures; they ranked #21 in per-game yardage because no one could run on them so opponents passed more often than normal. They lose Kurt Coleman (5 interceptions) from the secondary but Jermale Hines, Chimdi Chekwa, and Devon Torrance, all seniors, are back. Teams might do a little less passing and a little more running this year but the end result will be the same: not a lot of success.

Kicking Game: Ohio State has to replace both their primary punter and placekicker from last year but both the replacements have experience. Jon Thoma averaged just 37.9 yards per punt; Ben Buchanan (42.8 on 4 punts) will take over. Aaron Petty was 14 of 20 on field goals but was injured and Devin Barclay took over, hitting 7 of 10. Barclay is back this year but didn't attempt anything over 40 yards.
Return Game: The Buckeyes lose punt returner Ray Small (8.3 on punts, also 27.0 on kickoffs with one touchdown) and primary kickoff returner Lamaar Thomas (20.9 average). Running backs Jordan Hall and Brandon Saine are listed as replacements.
Coaching/Recruiting      '10 Recruiting Rank: #27
Jim Tressel had a "comeback year" of sorts last season. Though it was OSU's 5th straight season of double-digit wins, the key was winning the Rose Bowl, the Buckeyes first bowl win since 2005. Recruiting has been so great in the last several years that this year—a borderline top ten class, only 3rd or 4th in the Big Ten—is considered a disappointment. Part of the reason for the lower ranking is that the Buckeyes recruited a small class this year since they've loaded up with talent in the last few years. They still have at least a half dozen consensus blue chip players though one, Jamel Turner, was shot and nearly killed this summer. He recovered but it's unknown when or whether he'll join the team.

2009 Recap Clearly looking ahead to a rematch with USC, Ohio State almost got bit by Navy before winning 31-27. They controlled most of the game against the Trojans but went flat at the end and lost 18-15, putting a damper on the season already. Four expected wins including a 31-13 thrashing of then-undefeated Wisconsin pulled them out of their funk a bit but an upset loss to Purdue put them right back in. Around this time was when people began writing off Pryor as a failure. Pryor and the Buckeyes responded by winning their next two by a combined 83-7, then thrashing Penn State 24-7. They needed overtime to beat a Rick Stanzi-less Iowa 27-24 but beat Michigan 21-10. Going to the Rose Bowl as underdogs they handled Oregon the way they did USC but didn't falter down the stretch, winning 26-17 and getting a big monkey off Jim Tressel's back.

Ohio State 2010 schedule & forecast
9/2	Thu	vs.	Marshall	83%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Miami (Florida)	55%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	Ohio	85%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	Eastern Michigan	99%	W
10/2	Sat	@	*Illinois	74%	W
10/9	Sat	vs.	*Indiana	87%	W
10/16	Sat	@	*Wisconsin	50%	L
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Purdue	82%	W
10/30	Sat	@	*Minnesota	71%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Penn State	65%	W
11/20	Sat	@	*Iowa	58%	W
11/27	Sat	vs.	*Michigan	75%	W
Projection   Straight up: 11-1   Cumulative: 9-3

2010 Outlook Another season, another set of high expectations for the Buckeyes. Even though our ranking isn't nearly as high as most publications (almost everyone seems to have Ohio State at #2), after looking at their schedule they might as well be higher since they've got a great chance of going undefeated.

Watch for the Marshall game to perhaps be Navy part II. The Miami game is already on the minds of Ohio State players, and they'll be looking right past Marshall. This isn't as big of a sin as looking past Navy, who finished with 10 wins last year, but don't be shocked if the Buckeyes don't impress in week one.

That brings us to the Miami game, a rematch of the 2002 national championship game which Ohio State won controversially in double overtime. For many people that game was certainly thrilling though not enough time has passed to mark it as an all-time classic. But for an 18-year-old player, that game happened when he was 10, long enough ago to give it legendary status. With 100,000+ fans packed into the Horseshoe OSU should defeat the 'Canes again, this time in more legitimate fashion.

Then the Bucks have four very easy games before traveling to Wisconsin, the one game I think they might lose. It's a tossup, really, since how often has Wisconsin "won the big one"? As bad as Ohio State has done as a representative of the Big Ten lately, they've always won the big in-conference games. This is easily their biggest stumbling block on the way to either the Rose Bowl and a national title.

The only other expecting stumbling block is a trip to Iowa and OSU might be overconfident at that point if they're undefeated, but they can probably handle the Hawks. The cumulative projection accounts for possible upsets and forecasts a 9-3 year. It's possible that they could lose all three (Miami, Wisconsin, Iowa) or lose two of them and fall victim to another Purdue-like upset, but I don't see it. I think 11-1 is what the Buckeyes will be. Whether it's Wisconsin, Miami, Iowa, or some other team, the Buckeyes will lose one game and that means another BCS bowl in 2010.

 

10. Nebraska Cornhuskers (Big Twelve #2; North #1)     Polls: AP #8  USA/Coaches #9

2009 Results: Record: 10-4   Bowl: Beat Arizona 33-0 (Holiday)  Poll finish: AP #14  USA #14
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #7    Success: #26    Overall: #11
Nebraska should rule the Big Twelve North but probably can't beat the champ from the South.

Offense (7 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #56   '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #33
Nebraska's tepid offense won't blow teams away this year but it won't stall as often as it did in 2009.
• Passing Game:    '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #56    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #33
Zac Lee was perhaps less-than-adequate at the helm for the 'Huskers, but when you compare his passing numbers to say, Terrelle Pryor's, there's not a lot of difference. Both had just over 2,000 yards; Lee had four fewer TDs at 14 but one fewer interception at 10, and had a higher completion percentage at 59. Of course, Lee had far fewer rushing yards but still had 171 net. Backup Cody Green wasn't any better, hitting 53% for 2 TDs and 2 interceptions, but he's up for the starting job along with lee and redshirt freshman Taylor Martinez. If Lee is healthy he should regain his job eventually and have a much better year as Nebraska'a top three receivers return. Niles Paul led easily with 796, while Curenski Gilleylen and Mike McNeil had 561 combined. They did lose two of the other four who had over 100 yards and starting tight end Dreu Young who needed back surgery. The offensive line should protect the quarterback as well as last year when they allowed 19 sacks (18th best in the nation adjusted for opponents). Nebraska's passing game which could be quarterback-by-committee should still be much better this year.
• Ground Game:   '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #53     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #44
Roy Helu led the 'Husker rushing attack with 1,147 yards and 10 touchdowns, but like the passing game it wasn't all that fierce. Rex Burkhead was 2nd with 346 yards and QB Lee 3rd with 171 net, while freshman Dontrayveous Robinson had 165 and backup QB Green 158. Both main backs were hurt much of the time and many runners were used, particularly against Iowa State where Bo Pelini struggled to find someone who wouldn't fumble the football. The offensive line was looking good in the spring after they had adjusted to life without 3-year starting center Jacob Hickman, but then returning starter Mike Smith broke his leg this summer. That still leaves Ricky Henry, Keith Williams, and Marcel Jones, and Smith was projected to be a backup this year to Mike Caputo. The running back corps has everyone back, presumably healthier, and should have a better year in 2010.

Defense (6 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #2    '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #1
The defense is weaker without Ndamukong Suh but will paradoxically be the best in the nation.
• '09 Stats:  Adj. Rush Def: #16   Adj. Pass Def: #3   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #3   Sacks: #3
Any comparison between this year's and last year's Nebraska defense starts with a discussion of last year's near-Heisman winner, nose tackle Ndamukong Suh, who racked up 12 sacks, 12 more tackles for loss, and broke up 10 passes last year while ranking at the Cornhuskers' #1 tackler for the 2nd straight year. Suh departed for the NFL after winning every defensive trophy possible and was the #2 choice in the NFL draft. Clearly the defensive line will be weaker without Suh and Barry Turner, who had 5.5 sacks plus 10.5 tackles for loss. Pierre Allen (5 sacks) and Jared Crick (9.5) will form the basis of another great D-line but the pass rush can't possibly be the same without Suh, whose presence allowed others to get past opponents' O-lines as the team racked up 44 sacks. At linebacker Phil Dillard is gone along with part-time starter Sean Fisher who broke his leg in the summer, but Will Compton, who started most games, is back. Nebraska usually runs a 4-2-5 with one hybrid linebacker slot and Eric Hagg is back at that position. The rest of the secondary loses two starters including Matt O'Hanlon who had 6 interceptions, but Prince Amukamara (11 pass breakups, 5 int) is back with Alfonzo Dennard, and part-time starter DeJon Gomez (4 int) moves into the lineup. It will be interesting to see the effect that the loss of Suh has on the passing defense, as the pressure (and quite frankly, terror) he put on quarterbacks made the job of the secondary easier. Overall even though five of the top seven tacklers are gone, the vast majority of the 2nd and 3rd string return and the downgrade will be limited. And because Alabama loses 9 starters on defense this year, Nebraska's should be the #1 unit by default.

Kicking Game: Alex Henery returns after handling both punting and kicking chores for the Cornhuskers. He averaged 41.8 per punts and made 24 of 28 field goals, three of those misses coming beyond 50 yards.
Return Game: Receiver Niles Paul is also the 'Huskers' return specialist; he had one touchdown on a punt return (10.7 average) and averaged 27.9 yards per kickoff return last year.
Coaching/Recruiting      '10 Recruiting Rank: #29
Bo Pelini took over a losing Nebraska team and has had two winners in a row, though it hasn't always been smooth running. Recruiting isn't much better in his 2nd class, again ranking in the middle of the Big Twelve pack. It may be that Nebraska has seen the last of its glory days when everyone fought to come here; or maybe a national championship run will rekindle the flame. The Huskers culled about a half dozen blue chip recruits from various places this year, but mostly from the midwest states.

2009 Recap Nebraska blew out Sun Belt teams Florida Atlantic and Arkansas State but the offense sputtered when confronted with Virginia Tech. The Hokie offense sputtered, too when faced with Nebraska's D, and they narrowly beat the Huskers 16-15. UL-Lafayette fell 55-0, making the combined score Nebraska 142, Sun Belt 28. Against Missouri the offense stalled again for three quarters before coming alive with the help of the defense to win 27-12. But the low point for the O was yet to come. Even the defense looked bad as Texas Tech beat Nebraska 31-10, and against Iowa State the defense was fine but the offense literally fumbled the game away inside the 10 yard line, losing 9-7 in what should have been a 42-9 blowout win. At 4-3 it looked like another disappointing year was in store but with Suh getting better every game Nebraska went on a tear, winning their last five games (almost all due to defense) and meeting Texas in the Big 12 title game. Here Suh's legend grew by leaps and bounds as he relentlessly hounded Colt McCoy and held Texas to 10 points before a final field goal gave the Longhorns the win, 13-12. The D dominated Arizona and the O did its job, too, winning 33-0 in the Holiday Bowl.

Nebraska 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Western Kentucky	94%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Idaho	75%	W
9/18	Sat	@	Washington	55%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	South Dakota State	82%	W
10/7	Thu	@	*Kansas State	72%	W
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Texas	57%	W
10/23	Sat	@	*Oklahoma State	71%	W
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Missouri	63%	W
11/6	Sat	@	*Iowa State	74%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Kansas	81%	W
11/20	Sat	@	*Texas A&M	55%	W
11/26	Fri	vs.	*Colorado	75%	W
Projection   Straight up: 12-0   Cumulative: 9-3

2010 Outlook Nebraska has three games it has to worry about; if they lose them all they'll match the cumulative projection. If they win them all they'll match the "straight up" projection of 12-0.

The first game is Washington. The Huskies will be a good team this year, and the Cornhuskers will be on the road. If they don't realize how good Washington is they could be walking into a trap early in the season. But I doubt they'll be looking ahead to South Dakota State.

Texas is the second game, and I'm not concerned at all that they'll have trouble getting ready to exact revenge, at home, on a Texas team that will certainly be weaker than last year. I'd say it's almost as likely that they lose the prior game at Kansas State, when they *will* be looking ahead.

The third is Texas A&M on the road, a game as tough as the Washington game. If they're 10-0 at this point they'll know what is at stake. It's less likely that they lose here than to Washington.

So can the Cornhuskers go 12-0? I think there are enough challenges that the answer is no. Nebraska is going to be a good team, but they're only (according to us) the 10th best so going undefeated is still against the odds given a BCS conference schedule. Their offense, while better, still isn't really all that good and they recently lost key players Smith (OL), Young (TE), and Fisher (LB). I think they might lose to Washington early on, or escape from Washington with a narrow win but lose to Kansas State before beating Texas. Nebraska will be 11-1, or maybe 10-2, this year.

Either way they'll be in the Big Twelve championship game again, and this time they'll probably lose to Oklahoma. So even if they manage to go 12-0, they won't go 13-0. Nebraska will have to wait till another year to recapture the national title.