2010 Pre-season Rankings - #7 Oregon, #8 Florida

The SportsRatings 2010 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams. These rankings predict how good the teams will be in 2009 before taking schedule into account, then the preview explores how well they should do given their schedule.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team. Two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win (straight up), and also an aggregate projection that allows for the uncertainty across a season (cumulative). The expectation for the team's season lies somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams #7 and #8. To see the full list, click here.

7. Oregon Ducks  (Pac-10 #1)      Polls: AP #11   USA/Coaches #11

2009 Results: Record: 10-3   Bowl: Lost to Ohio State 26-17 (Rose)  Poll finish: AP #11 USA #11
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #10    Success: #9    Overall: #9
With Jeremiah Masoli back the Ducks would have been our #1 team. How will they fare without him?

Offense (9 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #4   '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #8
The off-season loss of quarterback Jeremiah Masoli puts a major crimp in Oregon's offense, which we had projected as the #1 offense in the country before his departure.
• Passing Game:    '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #96    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #88
Jeremiah Masoli didn't put up huge numbers (2,147 yards) but he was careful with the ball, throwing 15 touchdown passes with only 6 interceptions. First suspended for the year due to a laptop theft charge, he was kicked off the team for a marijuana arrest and ultimately ended up at Mississippi. Sophomore Darron Thomas, a backup in 2008, has been named starter over 2009 backup and fifth-year senior Nate Costa. He'll have a good situation at receiver, with three of the top four back: Jeff Maehl, D.J. Davis, and Lavasier Tuinei (combined 1,146 rec. yards) are back while tight end Ed Dickson (551 yards, 6 TDs) departs. Protection should be amazing; the O-line gave up just 13 sacks last year and all five starters return. So despite going from a 2-year starter to a very part-time backup, passing production will increase, but we'll never know what Masoli might have done.
• Ground Game:    '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #5     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #2
Last year LeGarrette Blount was suspended after the Boise State game, putting the focus of the running game on LaMichael James who finished with 1,546 yards and 14 TDs. Masoli was the #2 runner with 668, and Kenjon Barner added 366. With James and Barner as well as Remene Alston (133) in the lineup there's enough talent to have a great rushing team even without a running quarterback as good as Masoli. But what should really juice the rushing numbers is the offensive line. Five starters, four of them upperclassmen, are back for the Ducks this year: Seniors Jordan Holmes, C.E. Kaiser, and Bo Thran re-team with Mark Asper and Carson York. They led the offense to a top five finish in adjusted rushing yards (#6 raw) and this year the team could finish #2 behind Navy. Were Masoli back he would only add to the totals but even without him they will be a scary team to face. The one question is how much Masoli's dual-threat added to the mix, and whether defenses will be able to plan better against the Ducks if they have a more standard offense. Following in the footsteps of Blount and Masoli, James couldn't resist getting into the act himself as he was suspended for harassment, but for just one game. Amateur!

Defense (8 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #31   '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #18
The Duck D makes gains and becomes top 25 worthy.
• '09 Stats:  Adj. Rush Def: #31   Adj. Pass Def: #41   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #17   Sacks: #10
Seniors Kenny Rowe (11.5 sacks) and Brandon Bair return to the defensive line. Rowe's presence helps insure that the Ducks will still have a strong pass rush, and it could remain in the top 10. At linebacker everyone returns but Eddie Pleasant moves to safety, leaving Spencer Paysinger and Casey Matthews behind. Both are seniors, giving the front seven four returning senior starters. The secondary consists of four returning starters: ex-LB Pleasant (4.5 sacks), Talmadge Jackson (4 interceptions), John Boyett (#1 tackler, 3 int.), and Javes Lewis. Already a strong group they should cut down on the per-game pass yardage they yielded last year. Overall 8 of the top 9 tacklers return and this should be a very strong defense.

Kicking Game: Jackson Rice averaged a fair 40.5 yards per punt and he's back, while Morgan Flint moves on after converting 16 of 19 field goals. Either freshman Alejandro Maldonado or sophomore Rob Beard will take over as kicker; look for Maldonado in game one as Beard bought a ticket on the (1-game) suspension train.
Return Game: Backup RB Kenjon Barner returned a kickoff for a touchdown and averaged 24.9 yards in that endeavor and also handled punts with a 10.5 average. He'll become primary punt fielder as Walter Thurmond departs; Thurmond had one punt return touchdown last season.
Coaching/Recruiting      '10 Recruiting Rank: #12
Chip Kelly has only been coach for one season and already he's been put through the ringer. First the LaGarrette Blount-Boise State punch incident, then Masoli's transgressions that required suspension and dismissal, and LaMichael James' issues. He coached his team, minus one of their star runners, to a Pac-10 title. Can he do the same to this year's team without their star quarterback? One thing he's done well for sure is recruit. In his first full year of recruiting he has a near-top 10 class, one of the best in the conference. Lache Seastrunk is one of the top running back prospects in the country, and the Ducks brought in a half-dozen more consensus blue-chip recruits.

2009 Recap A hopeful Duck season went downhill fast last September 3rd. First their proud offense was stifled by Boise State in a 19-8 loss; then LaGarrette Blount punched Byron Hout after the game. Chip Kelly "permanently" suspended Blount (he came back near the end of the year) and went on without him. It took a few games—they barely beat Purdue, and edged Utah by a touchdown—but every game they were getting better and by the time they blew out California 42-3 it was clear the offense was going to be a success without Blount. They kept winning, even demolishing USC 47-20 before losing a ground-war shootout with Stanford, 51-42. They won out, narrowly beating Arizona (2 OT) and Oregon State (37-33) to get to the Rose Bowl at 10-2. They lost to Ohio State 26-17 to finish 10-3 on the year.

Oregon 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	New Mexico	99%	W
9/11	Sat	@	Tennessee	72%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	Portland State	100%	W
9/25	Sat	@	*Arizona State	77%	W
10/2	Sat	vs.	*Stanford	62%	W
10/9	Sat	@	*Washington State	92%	W
10/21	Thu	vs.	*UCLA	73%	W
10/30	Sat	@	*Southern Cal	64%	W
11/6	Sat	vs.	*Washington	64%	W
11/13	Sat	@	*California	64%	W
11/26	Fri	vs.	*Arizona	70%	W
12/4	Sat	@	*Oregon State	62%	W
Projection   Straight up: 12-0   Cumulative: 9-3

2010 Outlook The off-season is when the troubles began and Oregon fell from their perch as the SportsRatings pre-season #1. But if you check the chart above, it's hardly made a difference: Oregon is so far ahead of every other Pac-10 team that it doesn't matter that they've lost their star player. They are still favored—usually heavily—in every game. And there are no tough non-conference games to test their mettle either. If they can beat Tennessee and run the Pac-10 table, they'll go undefeated.

Their toughest games are Stanford at home and Oregon State on the road, followed closely by a trio of games near the end of the year: at USC, vs. Washington, and @ Cal. All five of those together could produce 2 losses, if you listen to the cumulative projection which has the team 9-3. The third loss comes in fragments from all the other games (but not from New Mexico or Portland State, two gimmes on the schedule).

I don't think Oregon will lose three games. But I don't think they'll go undefeated, either. If they had Masoli back and were the #1 then I would believe it, and issue an official prediction that Oregon was going 12-0 and would be playing for the national title. As it is there are too many questions about how the offense will function and how effective it will be. Though the numbers still say they are very tough—and they should be—I don't think they're good enough to dismiss the probability of an upset or even two, making an 11-1 or 10-2 year likely.

So if I have to be official about it, I'll predict and 11-1 season, with a loss to Oregon State at the end. The Beavers will spoil the Ducks' perfect season in Corvallis.

 

8. Florida Gators  (SEC #3; East #1)          Polls: AP #4  USA/Coaches #3

2009 Results:   Record: 13-1   Bowl: Beat Cincinnati 51-24 (Sugar)   Poll finish: AP #3  USA #3
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #2    Success: #3    Overall: #2
Tim Tebow is gone, and he will not rise back up to guide Florida to the promised land.

Offense (6 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #12   '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #23
After one of the greatest college football careers ever Tim Tebow moves on, and Florida must, too.
• Passing Game:    '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #43    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #91
Tim Tebow was criticized as "not a great passer" but you can't argue with results. In his senior year he threw for 2,895 yards (68% completions) and 21 TDs against just 5 interceptions, the kind of numbers he had his whole career. His running threat made him tough to defend when back to pass. He offered a lot of things that you won't find in a more "pure" drop-back passer like John Brantley, his replacement. On talent alone Brantley should have a great year; as a backup he completed 75% for 410 yards and 7 TDs with no interceptions. If he can spread that across an entire season he'll be a Heisman candidate, but I think that might have to wait until next year. The Gators lose four of their top five receivers including the top two, Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez, who combined for 1,811 yards and 14 TDs. Deonte Thomas is the leading returner with 343 yards (4 TDs). The offensive line will be very good as four starters return but they gave up 30 sacks last year (75th in nation adjusted) which isn't good for breaking in a new QB. Brantley will do well, passing for over 2,500 yards but I think Florida will remain a power running team behind the strong O-line.
• Ground Game:    '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #11     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #8
Tebow led the team in rushing again, missing 1,000 yards only due to sack losses. But the Gators are positively loaded with talent at running back and with Tebow "out of the way" they are going to shine. Lightning-fast Jeff Demps, I believe, will be one of the nation's leading rushers; he had 745 (7.5 average) last year. Chris Rainey (575) and Emmanuel Moody (378) will also contribute heavily, and Mike Gillislee (267) is back, too. QB Brantley showed some running ability last year (as is required of quarterbacks under Urban Meyer) and there are wildcat packages being set up for some freshman receivers. In short, Florida is going to run through and around everybody this year. The offensive line proved itself last year as a great run-blocking line and only one starter is gone. Maurkice Pouncey departs but brother Mike returns along with Carl Johnson and Marcus Gilbert, while part-time starters Xavier Nixon and James Wilson fill the other slots. Even without Tebow's yardage production should increase and make Florida a top ten rushing team.

Defense (5 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #3    '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #6
Last year every starter was back, and the entire second string. Not this year, but the Florida D will still be one of the nation's best.
• '09 Stats:  Adj. Rush Def: #6   Adj. Pass Def: #2   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #7   Sacks: #4
Florida was in the top ten in rushing defense, passing defense (however measured), and quarterback pressure. They might fall out of the top ten in any or all of those categories but the defense will remain in the top ten overall. The defensive line has two starters back, Omar Hunter and Terron Sanders, but they lose Carlos Dunlap and Jermain Cunningham who combined for 16 sacks (there goes the top five sacks rating). Only A.J. Jones returns at linebacker as Ryan Stamper (#1 tackler) and Brandon Spikes (1st team All-American) move on. The secondary loses Major Wright and Joe Haden (10 pass breakups) but Janoris Jenkins is back with Ahmad Black and should still be very good, maybe not #2 in per-game adjusted yards yielded, however. The defense loses four of the top five tacklers but the returning talent is excellent.

Kicking Game: Chas Henry averaged 43.4 yards per punt with a stellar 41.0 net, and while kicker Caleb Sturgis has some issues, missing 3 extra points and 2 inside the 30 yard line (22 of 30 overall), though he did kick a 56 yarder. Both are back.
Return Game: Brandon James was the team's designated return man on punts and kickoffs last year, averaging 7.4 per punt and 26.1 per kickoff, with one touchdown. Chris Rainey will take over both chores this year.
Coaching/Recruiting      '10 Recruiting Rank: #1
Urban Meyer kept us wondering last year, but not for long, what his future plans would be. After announcing his retirement due to a "health condition" Meyer quickly made it a "leave of absence" and before you knew it he was saying he would coach the team in 2010 after all. Between then and now he berated a reporter for reporting exactly what a player said, fully in context, and figured out that the stress-related heart condition he feared he had was really just some kind of fancy acid reflux that they have pills for at the dollar store. Oh, and he recruited the #1 recruiting class in the country, too, with no less than four uber-blue-chips, all on defense: tackles Dominique Easley from New York and Sharrif Floyd of Pennsylvania; safety Matt Elam from Florida; and end Ronald Powell from California. And then yet another uber-blue-chip, linebacker Chris Martin from Colorado, decided he'd rather go to Florida than California where he originally committed. Meyer did lose blue chips Jordan Haden (safety) and Adrian Coxson (receiver), but they were just consensus blue-chips, not uber-blue 5 star types. Those regular old blue chips are a dime a dozen in Florida's recruiting classes as of late.

2009 Recap In many ways 2009 was a disappointment, even before they lost to Alabama and with it lost any hope of repeating as national champs. Dominating Charleston Southern 62-3 and Troy 56-6 was expected, but Tennessee put up way too much of a fight, losing just 23-13. That was the first sign that the team wouldn't be one for the ages. Then there was Tebow's concussion injury against Kentucky, which slowed him for weeks as they barely got past LSU (13-3), Arkansas (23-20), and even Mississippi State (29-19). This was not looking like one of the best teams of all time. But they were still undefeated, and rolled through Georgia, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Florida International (another 62-3 beatdown) and FSU (37-10 this year). They faced undefeated Alabama in the SEC title game and played flat, missed several scoring opportunities, and couldn't mount a comeback, losing 32-13. The Meyer situation pumped the players up and made sure they came out like gangbusters against Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl, taking a huge lead and winning 51-24.

Florida 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Miami (Ohio)	88%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	South Florida	76%	W
9/18	Sat	@	*Tennessee	72%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	73%	W
10/2	Sat	@	*Alabama	44%	L
10/9	Sat	vs.	*LSU	62%	W
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi State	67%	W
10/30	Sat	N	*Georgia	64%	W
11/6	Sat	@	*Vanderbilt	80%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*South Carolina	62%	W
11/20	Sat	vs.	Appalachian State	85%	W
11/27	Sat	@	Florida State	55%	W
Projection   Straight up: 11-1   Cumulative: 8-4

2010 Outlook Florida is hot to avenge its loss to Alabama and they should be 4-0 at the time, but they'll be playing in Tuscaloosa and the Tide will probably win again. Before and after that are a sea of very probable wins. If Florida does lose to Alabama as we expect, what will that do to their mental state? Will they be able to play the rest of the season with the same focus?

Win or lose, they can look forward to a possible rematch in the SEC title game if they win out, so odds are they will keep that focus against their hardest SEC foes—LSU, Georgia, South Carolina—and win their conference games. But I think that when they travel to Florida State, the SEC title game berth in hand, they could get caught napping by FSU, a team they've slaughtered for years now, and lose a second game.

So between the cumulative projection of 8-4 (that's a lot of upsets) and the 11-1 game-by-game tally, lies the truth, which I believe will be a 10-2 season for Florida in Year One, A.T.

P.S. Florida may or may not win the SEC title game, but I don't think they'll face Alabama. Tune in when the rest of the top ten is posted to find out who might be there instead.