2010 Pre-season Rankings - #5 Oklahoma, #6 Virginia Tech

The SportsRatings 2010 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams. These rankings predict how good the teams will be in 2009 before taking schedule into account, then the preview explores how well they should do given their schedule.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team. Two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win (straight up), and also an aggregate projection that allows for the uncertainty across a season (cumulative). The expectation for the team's season lies somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams #5 and #6. To see the full list, click here.

5. Oklahoma Sooners (Big Twelve #1; South #1)     Polls: AP #7  USA/Coaches #8

2009 Results: Record: 8-5   Bowl: Beat Stanford 31-27 (Sun)   Poll finish: AP #26 USA #29
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #6    Success: #36    Overall: #11
Oklahoma went 8-5 last year and they lose four first-round draft picks (3 of the top 4 players selected). So how are they in the top five?

Offense (8 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #26   '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #17
The offense should run smoother in Landry Jones' second year with a more settled O-line.
• Passing Game:   '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #10    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #4
Sam Bradford was hurt in the first game of the season, out for a while, then re-injured  against Texas, ending his season with hardly 500 passing yards and 2 touchdowns, compared to 4,720 yards and 50 TDs from his Heisman Trophy winning 2008 season. Bradford was the #1 pick in the NFL draft and leaves the reigns to Landry Jones, who had a rough start against BYU but picked up speed as the season continued, finishing with 3,198 yards and 26 touchdowns. He did have 14 interceptions and completed just 58% but those numbers should improve in his sophomore year, particularly since his top four targets are back. Ryan Broyles is the key player, with 1,120 yards and 15 touchdowns last year, while running back DeMarco Murray and receivers Dejuan Miller and Brandon Caleb combined for another 1,364 and 7 TDs (the Sooners lose another first-round pick in tight end Jermaine Gresham, but he didn't play at all last season). Despite the troubles protecting Bradford against BYU and Texas the offensive line only gave up 15 sacks all year (#8 adjusted) and should be as good this year. Jones got valuable experience last season and should have a banner year for the Sooners. 
• Ground Game:   '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #69     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #61
Chris Brown (749 yards) was the team's leading rusher again last year as DeMarco Murray (705 yds.) was slowed by injury. Murray is back and should be healthy now, and backing him up will two sophomores who combined for 350 yards last year. The offensive line is in good shape with three starters back. Despite losing Trent Williams, the #4 pick in the NFL draft, they have Cory Brandon, Stephen Good, and Ben Habern back along with several part-time starters such as Jarvis Jones and Tyler Evans. Murray has rushed for over 1,000 yards before and may do it again, and Mossis Madu moves back to running back so production shouldn't decline despite losing Brown.

Defense (5 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #4    '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #4
The defense will be weaker in places but talent runs deep in Norman.
• '09 Stats:  Adj. Rush Def: #12   Adj. Pass Def: #5   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #4   Sacks: #7
The defense loses Oklahoma's other top pick, Gerald McCoy (6 sacks, 9.5 tackles for loss) who was selected #3, as well as Auston English, making the defensive line considerably weaker this year. Seniors Jeremy Beal (11 sacks) and Adrian Taylor will try to preserve Oklahoma's near top 10 rushing defense, but it will be a challenge as linebackers Ryan Reynolds and Keenan Clayton depart, too. Travis Lewis, the team's #1 tackler with 109, does return however. Sam Proctor and Quinton Carter (4 interceptions) are back in the secondary. The Sooners lose a lot of key starters on defense but those returning are exceptional players and new starters such as Frank Alexander on the D-line and Jonathan Nelson at cornerback will be solid replacements.

Kicking Game: Tress Way averaged a strong 45.7 yards per punt (40.3 net) and Jimmy Stevens and Patrick O'Hara combined to make 17 out of 22 field goals. All three are back this year with O'Hara apparently keeping the starting job he won in the middle of last year.
Return Game: Ryan Broyles has one punt-return touchdown last year and averaged a whopping 15.9 yards per return. Mossis Madu was the primary kickoff returner and averaged 21.4 yards. Broyles may perform most of both chores as Madu moves back to running back.
Coaching/Recruiting      '10 Recruiting Rank: #2
Bob Stoops keeps on keepin' on, chasing another national championship which has eluded him since 2000. He's come close—very close—but lost in a lot of big games giving him an unfair reputation. Recruiting in the past few years has been particularly good and this year is one of their best, ranking #2 behind only Florida's class. Two wide receivers, Justin McCray and Kenny Stills, are among the Sooners' consensus blue-chips, which they have about 15 of in this class.

2009 Recap Last year could have been, and was supposed to be, another great year for Sooner football. But there was bad luck from the start. Superstar tight end Jermaine Gresham never played and Sam Bradford was knocked out of the BYU game which they lost by a point, 14-13. After two shutouts of hapless opponents with Jones at the helm they went to Miami and lost by a point again, 21-10. Bradford came back against Baylor and beat the Bears 33-7, but he was gone for good against Texas which they dropped 16-13. Jones did well against poor teams but against those like Nebraska he struggled as they lost 10-3. The defense was great all year except for the 41-13 loss to Texas Tech which put them at 6-5. Showing that they were actually one of the nation's best teams (finishing #6 in the Strength Power Rating) by blowing out Oklahoma State 27-0. They battled Stanford and were victorious in the Sun Bowl to end on a good note but the 8-5 record was a big disappointment. With all the close losses it's pretty clear that there was a narrow line between 8-5 and 12-1 if Bradford and Gresham had been available as expected. That's why this year's team ranks so high—they were very underrated and had terrible luck last season.

Oklahoma 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Utah State	84%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Florida State	64%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	Air Force	80%	W
9/25	Sat	@	Cincinnati	65%	W
10/2	Sat	N	*Texas	60%	W
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Iowa State	86%	W
10/23	Sat	@	*Missouri	62%	W
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Colorado	80%	W
11/6	Sat	@	*Texas A&M	60%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Texas Tech	59%	W
11/20	Sat	@	*Baylor	74%	W
11/27	Sat	@	*Oklahoma State	76%	W
Projection   Straight up: 12-0   Cumulative: 9-3

2010 Outlook Oklahoma doesn't really have a very tough schedule. Yes, they have FSU and Cincinnati in the pre-conference schedule along with Air Force, which makes it one of the toughest in the Big Twelve for sure. But none of those teams should really challenge them, nor should any on their Big Twelve slate. Does that mean that Oklahoma is going to be undefeated?

It could happen; but of course last year shows that anything can happen. With the first three games at home and Cincinnati a weaker team this year the Sooners should be 4-0, but both the Seminoles and the Bearcats could surprise. Likewise, although I don't expect Texas, Texas A&M, or Texas Tech to give them problems, any of the three could. There's also Missouri on the road to contend with.

The game-by-game tally has the Sooners 12-0 pretty easily, but the cumulative projection is for about 8 1/2 wins and rounds up to 9-3. You can only have so many 62% chances of winning before one of them bites you. Just for that fact, I don't think the Sooners will emerge from this season 12-0. This year's team will be like the 2001 and 2002 models, that won the big games but were upset by Oklahoma State. Not that I think the Cowboys will beat the Sooners this year, but other unexpected teams might.

Missouri is one, and Texas A&M is the other. One of these two teams will upset Oklahoma, leaving them 11-1 for the year. Possibly both will or one of the other stronger teams on the schedule will and they'll be 10-2. But I'd guess the former: the Sooners go 11-1 and beat Nebraska in the Big 12 title game. After that it depends on what other teams around the nation have done as to whether Oklahoma can play for a national title or not, but there's a fair chance of Stoops getting yet another shot.

 

6. Virginia Tech Hokies (ACC #1; Coastal #1)     Polls: AP #10  USA/Coaches #6

2009 Results: Record: 10-3  Bowl: Beat Tennessee 37-14 (Chik-Fil-A)  Poll finish: AP #10 USA #10
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #5    Success: #13    Overall: #6
The Hokies field one of their best-ever teams and face three critical games.

Offense (7 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #10   '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #3
Now with a new and improved Tyrod Taylor, and double the star running back power!
• Passing Game:    '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #82    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #43
Tyrod Taylor still had a mediocre completion rate (56%) in 2009 but his TD:INT ratio was a solid 13 to 5 as he threw for 2,311 yards. No one is going to mistake Virginia Tech for a passing team with Taylor at the helm but they have to respect the possibility of a deep throw at any time. The top Hokie receivers are all back, starting with Jarrett Boykin's 835 yards and Danny Coale's 614 (both 20+ yards per catch). Three other players had 100+ yards. The offensive line allowed quite a few sacks last year (31) particularly considering how often VT runs the ball (one sack for every 8 attempts!) and it's questionable how much they'll improve. But with a solid group of more experienced receivers and Taylor now a senior the passing game should be a lot better.
• Ground Game:   '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #9     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #4
Darren Evans had 1,265 yards as a freshman in 2008 but was lost before the season began last year. So the Hokies just found another super-frosh, Ryan Williams, to rush for even more yards. Williams had an amazing 1,655 yards and 21 touchdowns. Now the team has two incredible running backs to divide time between. What problems! QB Taylor netted 370 yards while Josh Oglesby and David Wilson topped the 300 mark as well. Needless to say this is going to be one powerful rushing team, moving from the top 10 into the top 5 in the nation. The offensive line loses Sergio Render and Ed Wang who started for seven years combined, but with Beau Warren, Jaymes Brooks, and Blake DeChristopher back they'll still more than adequately pave the way for the two star backs. The only question is who gets how many carries.

Defense (4 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #8    '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #14
The Hokies will still have a great defense but it won't quite be like last year's model.
• '09 Stats:  Adj. Rush Def: #38   Adj. Pass Def: #10   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #15   Sacks: #12
The defensive line loses three starters including sack leader Nekos Brown (6.5); only John Graves (just 15 tackles last year) returns. They only return Barquell Rivers among the starters at linebacker as they lose #1 tackler Cody Grimm (106 tackles). The secondary is in a bit better shape with seniors Rashad Carmichael (6 interceptions) and Davon Morgan returning. Overall 9 of the top 13 tacklers are gone and the defensive line as a concert. Frank Beamer always has the defense ready to play but they won't dominate like they did at times last year.

Kicking Game: The Hokies must replace both punter Brent Bowden (43.8 yd. average) and placekicker Matt Waldron (20 of 23 field goals). Either senior Brian Saunders or Brent's freshman brother Grant Bowden will take over as punter while another senior, Chris Hazley, battles another freshman, Cody Journell, for the placekicking role. Either way there's likely to be some dropoff when replacing the quality pair.
Return Game: Both punt returner Jayron Hosley (11.2 average) and kickoff returnman Dyrell Roberts (31.9 average) scored a touchdown on a return, and both are back this year.
Coaching/Recruiting      '10 Recruiting Rank: #37
Frank Beamer is near-legendary as a defensive and special teams guru as year after year Virginia Tech outperforms in these areas, often winning games due to special teams play. The Hokies rarely have outstanding recruiting classes, either, so Beamer's staff must be doing something right in the coaching and development areas. This year's class is typical; decent on a national level, average for the ACC.

2009 Recap Recap of 2009 season.

Virginia Tech 2010 schedule & forecast
9/6	Mon	vs.	Boise State	48%	L
9/11	Sat	vs.	James Madison	90%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	East Carolina	91%	W
9/25	Sat	@	*Boston College	64%	W
10/2	Sat	@	*North Carolina St.	76%	W
10/9	Sat	vs.	Central Michigan	81%	W
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Wake Forest	78%	W
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Duke	81%	W
11/4	Thu	vs.	*Georgia Tech	61%	W
11/13	Sat	@	*North Carolina	51%	W
11/20	Sat	@	*Miami (Florida)	51%	W
11/27	Sat	vs.	*Virginia	79%	W
Projection   Straight up: 11-1   Cumulative: 9-3

2010 Outlook The Hokies open the season with one of the pivotal games of the year in terms of the national title race when Boise State comes to Landover, Maryland (which is not a neutral field given that the Broncos travel a few thousand miles to get there). While the game is much more important for Boise State's chances, it wouldn't help Virginia Tech's any to lose it. That is, while Virginia Tech could survive a loss, Boise State can't. But a win would boost the Hokies, especially if Boise wins out after.

And it might be the Hokies' only loss. It's really quite the tossup when home field advantage is added in, and Virginia Tech is better than every other team on the schedule. Both teams will have some key players out, the Hokies probably missing Barquell Rivers and Alonzo Tweedy on defense. The only challenge through October might be Boston College on the road. Then in November they host Georgia Tech, but have nearly two weeks to prepare a defense for them; giving the VT defense two weeks isn't a good idea.

The two pivotal games in terms of the ACC race come next; the Hokies go on the road to face North Carolina and Miami back-to-back. Favored slightly in both, the game-by-game projection gives them 2 wins. The cumulative projection would say they'll win one of the two, but which one we'll never know. In all the cume projection has Tech at 9-3, which doesn't mean they'll lose the three tough games, though it could. The game-by-game tally puts them at 11-1, which would mean a trip to the ACC championship game which the Coastal winner will be heavily favored in.

Three very tight games. I'll take Boise State in the opener because they will be even more motivated than the Hokies. As for the road games it's difficult to take Tech in both, but if they have only one conference loss that should get them to the ACC title game, which they will win. Therefore: a 10-2 record, and an ACC title makes Virginia Tech 11-2 prior the Orange Bowl. All in all a pretty good season.