The SportsRatings 2010 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams. These rankings predict how good the teams will be in 2009 before taking schedule into account, then the preview explores how well they should do given their schedule.
Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team. Two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win (straight up), and also an aggregate projection that allows for the uncertainty across a season (cumulative). The expectation for the team's season lies somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.
This installment covers teams from #26 to #30. To see the full list, click here.
| 26. West Virginia Mountaineers (Big East #2) Polls: AP #25 USA/Coaches #24(t) |
2009 Results: Record: 9-4 Bowl: Lost to FSU 33-21 (Gator) Poll finish: AP #25, USA #22
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #38 Success: #21 Overall: #34
Coach Bill Stewart has a chance to beat 9 wins this season.
Offense (7 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #49 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #46
With Noel Devine back it doesn't matter as much who plays quarterback.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #102 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #102
West Virginia has been a running team for quite some time and last year was no exception. Jarrett Brown had just over 2,000 yards and 11 touchdowns through the air. Freshman Geno Smith was competent (65%) when filling in and should be a good replacement but isn't as much of a runner as the Mountaineers are accustomed to from their QBs. Two of the top three receivers are back with Jock Sanders (688 yards) leading the way while three others who had 10+ receptions return including tight end Tyler Urban. The O-line should offer improved protection to Smith, who might top Brown's numbers but not much more in an offense that is designed for the run.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #19 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #14
Noel Devine is the offense's workhorse, carrying 241 times last year for 1,465 yards (6.1 average). QB Brown rushed for another 466 net (689 gross) yards while fullback Ryan Clarke added 250 and 8 TDs. With Brown gone and Smith at quarterback the rushing yards from that position will decline, but Brown is capable of running and the offensive line should cut down on the sack yards this season. Four full-time starters return to the line—Eric Jobe, Josh Jenkins, Don Barclay, and Joe Madsen—along with their backups as Selvish Capers departs. Behind this experienced line Devine should top 1,500 yards and be one of the many top Heisman candidates.
Defense (9 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #23 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #13
With 9 starters back a top 25 defense in '09 could be top ten in 2010.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #32 Adj. Pass Def: #50 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #29 Sacks: #48
West Virginia's front three is loaded: Julian Miller (9 sacks) and Chris Neild are back, as are Scooter Berry and backup Chris Taylor, who filled in for Berry post-injury. At linebacker the two top tacklers return to the middle of the 3-3-5, Pat Lazear and J.T. Thomas. Four starters return in the secondary led by Robert Sands (5 interceptions) and Brandon Hogan (11 pass breakups). The defense could be better in every area this year as approach top ten in the country in adjusted scoring defense.
Kicking Game: Tyler Bitancurt (13 of 15 field goals) is back for the Mountaineers, while Corey Smith or Greg Pugnetti will replace solid punter Scott Kozlowski (44.4 average).
Return Game: Jock Sanders averaged 8.6 yards per punt return last year while Mark Rogers (22.9) and Tavon Austin (25.1) handled kickoffs. Austin had one return for a touchdown and is back this year.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #36
Bill Stewart has turned in two 9-4 season after succeeding Rich Rodriguez in Morgantown. Last year's recruiting class was a bit stronger but this one still ranks 3rd in the Big East in our estimation. Among the consensus blue chips are juco defensive end Bruce Irvin from California and wide receiver Ivan McCartney from Florida. Another top-notch receiver, Deon Long, left school however.
2009 Recap Two limpid victories (33-20 and 35-20 over Liberty and East Carolina) were followed by a loss to Auburn to open the 2009 season. But the Mountaineers continued to win, even if ugly, and were 6-1 at one point before losses to South Florida and Cincinnati (24-21) gave them a 7-3 record with Pitt and Rutgers left. They won each by a field goal and carried a 9-3 record into a Gator Bowl that was set up as a sentimental send-off for Bobby Bowden who coached at West Virginia eons ago. Florida State played with emotion and beat the Mountaineers 33-21.
|
West Virginia 2010 schedule & forecast |
||||||||
| 9/4 | Sat | vs. | Coastal Carolina | 98% | W | |||
| 9/10 | Fri | @ | Marshall | 67% | W | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | vs. | Maryland | 65% | W | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | @ | LSU | 43% | L | |||
| 10/9 | Sat | vs. | UNLV | 76% | W | |||
| 10/14 | Thu | vs. | *South Florida | 61% | W | |||
| 10/23 | Sat | vs. | *Syracuse | 67% | W | |||
| 10/29 | Fri | @ | *Connecticut | 51% | W | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | vs. | *Cincinnati | 55% | W | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | @ | *Louisville | 71% | W | |||
| 11/26 | Fri | @ | *Pittsburgh | 46% | L | |||
| 12/4 | Sat | vs. | *Rutgers | 61% | W | |||
|
Projection Straight up: 10-2 Cumulative: 8-4
|
||||||||
2010 Outlook West Virginia kicks of 2010 with a rich, artery-clogging series of desserts. First comes cupcake Coastal Carolina (5-6 last year in the FCS). They continue with some M&Ms (Marshall and Maryland) and should be 3-0 with ease.
LSU on the road is next, followed by another kind stretch: UNLV, then USF and Syracuse at home. They should be 6-1, just like last year.
The tough games follow. UConn on the road and Cincy at home should be wins but could go either way, while Pitt on the road looks like a loss. Louisville and Rutgers should be wins, making them (if all goes to plan) 10-2 on the year.
The cumulative projection says 8-4, which is equivalent to the Mountaineers losing all their close games (but otherwise not getting upset) and is pretty much the low end of expecations. It would be hard to beat both LSU and Pitt on the road to go undefeated; they'd need surprisingly good quarterback play to make that happen. But 10-2 is a real possibility, maybe even the most likely outcome as we see it right now.
| 27. Iowa Hawkeyes (Big Ten #3) Polls: AP #9 USA/Coaches #10 |
2009 Results: Record: 11-2 Bowl: Beat Georgia Tech 24-14 (Orange) Poll finish: AP #7, USA #7
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #24 Success: #8 Overall: #13
Iowa rode a boderline top 25 team into a top ten finish and could do the same this year.
Offense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #62 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #65
The apparent loss of Brandon Wegher slows the rushing game but QB Ricky Stanzi will continue to lead the team well.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #56 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #50
Ricky Stanzi wasn't the best quarterback in the country last year but he won games like it. Stanzi had pedestrian numbers—56% completions, 2,417 yards, and 15 interceptions to go with 17 TDs passes—and had a penchant for throwing pick-sixes. But Iowa was 11-0 when he played the whole game and if he can cut down on the INTs he'll be that much more effective. Backup James Vandenburg has big game experience now (almost beat Ohio State) and should be a solid backup. Recevier Derrell Johnson-Koulianos led Iowa last year (750 yards) and if he repeats that will make four seasons in a row. #2 Marvin McNutt (674 yards, 8 TDs) is back but they lose Trey Stross (414) and clutch tight end Tony Moeaki (387). The offensive line is some concern as they allowed 29 sacks last year and return just two starters. Stanzi should still have his best year as a senior but cutting out the interceptions is the key.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #75 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #88
The ground game was really taking shape with everyone back from top gainer Adam Robinson (834 yards) to starting fullback Brett Morse (35 yards) and Jewel Hampton coming back from injury after doing a fine job backing up Shonn Greene in '08. But then #2 rusher Brandon Wegher (641 yards, 8 TDs) left fall camp with no indication as of yet that he will return. Another issue is the offensive line; six players had regular starts last season and just two are back, senior Julian Vandervelde and soph Reilly Reiff. Gone are Brian Bulaga, Rafael Eubanks, Kyle Calloway, and Dace Richardson. Head coach Kirk Ferentz always whips the line into shape, and while it would be nice to have Wegher back the other two sophomore running backs make a fine tandem and Iowa's rushing game normally exceeds expectations.
Defense (8 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #10 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #9
Iowa will have a top ten defense for the third straight season.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #24 Adj. Pass Def: #1 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #1 Sacks: #18
Iowa finished #1 in passing defense when adjusted for opposition in both per-game and per-attempt figures. The defensive line did its part with its four starters registering 27 sacks, and all four are back: Adrian Clayborn (11.5), Broderick Binns (6), Christian Ballard (5) and Karl Klug (4.5). All all seniors save Binns (junior) and the team's top 25 rushing defense should get a further boost. Linebacker Jeremiha Hunter returns though they lose Pat Angerer (#1 tackler w/145) and A.J. Edds (5 interceptions). The secondary will be strong again as Tyler Sash (6 interceptions), Shawn Prater (8 pass breakups), and Brett Greenwood (3 int) all return. In all 12 of the top 15 tacklers are back to a defense that was the real reason Iowa nearly went undefeated last year.
Kicking Game: Iowa had solid punting and placekicking from Ryan Donahue (40.9 average) and Daniel Murray (19 of 26 field goals) and should again this year.
Return Game: Colin Sandeman averaged 9 yards per punt return while fellow receiver DJK (see Passing Game) had one touchdown in 12 kickoff returns inflating his average from around 25 to 31.5 yards per return.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #49
Kirk Ferentz has fully pulled out of the rocky terrain Iowa stumbled on from 2005-2007. During that time some suggested Ferentz was on the "hot seat" which was never really true. He was then and still is very highly paid and that led to some of the criticisms. Also, Iowa's recruiting is generally not up to par for a top 25 team, though the Hawkeyes suffer very little attrition compared to many schools that rank above them and many recruits come from less hyped areas of the country. This year's class is a big step up from last season's and is in the middle of the Big Ten pack. Local recruit A.J. Derby could be Iowa's next great quarterback, if the versatile Iowa City native ends up playing that position.
2009 Recap Iowa kicked off the year against in-state FCS foe Northern Iowa, and they looked terrible all game, needing to block a last-second field goal TWICE before winning 17-6. Few took the Hawkeyes very seriously after that until they traveled to Penn State and whipped the Lions 21-10 with defense and special teams. The wins kept piling up, though the Hawks played everybody close: Arkansas State 24-21, Michigan 30-28 (both at home). They had comeback wins against Wisconsin, Michigan State (last play TD pass), and Indiana (from down 14 in the 3rd) and were 9-0 with Northwestern coming in. Stanzi got hurt and Iowa fell 17-10 for their first loss. They went to Ohio State with a freshman backup at QB and lost in overtime 27-24. Ending 10-2, they went to the Orange Bowl as underdogs but manhandled Georgia Tech 24-14 as the defense dominated once again.
|
Iowa 2010 schedule & forecast |
||||||||
| 9/4 | Sat | vs. | Eastern Illinois | 85% | W | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | vs. | Iowa State | 70% | W | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | @ | Arizona | 51% | W | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | vs. | Ball State | 78% | W | |||
| 10/2 | Sat | vs. | *Penn State | 54% | W | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | @ | *Michigan | 58% | W | |||
| 10/23 | Sat | vs. | *Wisconsin | 45% | L | |||
| 10/30 | Sat | vs. | *Michigan State | 60% | W | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | @ | *Indiana | 70% | W | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | @ | *Northwestern | 62% | W | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | vs. | *Ohio State | 42% | L | |||
| 11/27 | Sat | @ | *Minnesota | 60% | W | |||
|
Projection Straight up: 10-2 Cumulative: 7-5
|
||||||||
2010 Outlook Iowa overachieved in 2009; they were really a borderline top 25 team with an excellent defense. But they played to the level of their competition—usually just above—and that and the defense kept them in every game. The same will probably happen this season, too.
Iowa's first test should come at Arizona, but the Hawks are good enough to win it, as well as the home game against Penn State. Wisconsin might just be too good, but they do get that game at home. The same goes for Ohio State, the only other superior team on their slate. If they can force overtime on the road without Stanzi there's no reason they can't win at home with him.
Add this up and you have 10-2, with the outside chance of an undefeated season, in other words much like last year. To achieve that Stanzi will have to stop giving the other team 6 points every few contests. And they'll have to play above their heads and get lucky a few times again.
The cumulative projection is 7-5, but that's clearly a minimum as there are at least 7 solid wins on the board. I think the Arizona game will determine whether Iowa goes 9-3 or 10-2 this year.
| 28. Missouri Tigers (Big Twelve #6; North #2) Polls: AP #33 USA/Coaches #37 |
2009 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Lost to Navy 35-13 (Texas Bowl) Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #46 Success: #56 Overall: #49
Mizzou is a lot better but still a long way from the top teams in the Big Twelve, most of whom they face.
Offense (7.5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #38 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #36
Blaine Gabbert is without top receiver Danario Alexander, but is Derrick Washington gone, too?
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #14 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #10
How much will losing Danario Alexander hurt the Missouri passing game? That's the question. With Blaine Gabbert back after a fantastic year—3,593 yards, 24 TDs and just 9 interceptions—will we find out that much of his success was conditioned on the presence of superstar receiver Alexander (113 receptions, 1,781 yards, 14 TDs)? Or will the majority of his catches be spread around to Jerrell Jackson and Wes Kemp (876 yards combined)? Will starting tight end Andrew Jones (43 yards last year, 146 in '08) step up more, along with newer faces? The Tigers lose #2 Jared Perry, too (696 yards), so about 2/3 of receivers' production is gone. Gabbert will be better as a junior and should increase his completion rate above last year's 59%; this alone wouldn't offset Alexander's loss but the offensive line will offer better protection and Gabbert will spread the ball around a lot more than he had to last year.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #82 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #78
Tailback Derrick Washington rushed for 865 yards and 10 touchdowns, triple the yardage of the next runner. De'Vion Moore and Kendial Lawrence each had over 200 as did QB Gabbert, but Washington was the main cog in the Tigers' not-so-emphasized rushing game. With Washington suspended indefinitely and thus his return suddenly questionable basically kicked off the team, the question in this area is, how important is he? As we just mentioned, Missouri is a passing team lately under Gary Pinkel. Washington is clearly the best back but the other two averaged close to his 4.6 yards per carry. The offensive line is going to be very good this year, too: they lose only one starter, and while 3-year starter Kurtis Gregory was important, they return two 2-year starters (Tim Barnes, Elvis Fisher) as well as Austin Wuebbels and Dan Hoch. The increase in ranking seen here is due to a better offensive line, the Tigers returning everyone from the running back corps except Washington. Since he in all likelihood won't play this year, the ranking is lower than it would have been (#67 or so) and production could be flat from last year.
Defense (8 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #54 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #25
A vastly improved secondary and Aldon Smith back on the D-line makes this a top defense.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #13 Adj. Pass Def: #107 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #43 Sacks: #27
The Tiger defensive line loses two starters, but Dominique Hamilton returns and, most importantly, so does Aldon Smith. Smith led the team with a whopping 11.5 sacks last year. Unfortunately at linebacker they lose #1 tackler Sean Witherspoon (111 tackles, 10 tackles for loss) but #2 Andrew Gachkar and #3 Will Ebner return. In the secondary Jasper Simmons, Carl Gettis, Jarrell Harrison, and Kevin Rutland—all seniors—are back. Missouri gave up a lot of passing yards last year but that's because no one could run on them; teams went to the air out of necessity, and though the Tigers did a decent job (#43 per-play) they were only #107 in per-game stats (adjusted for opponents). All of those figures should improve with the experienced secondary still in place. Overall, the defense returns 8 of its top 9 tacklers.
Kicking Game: Kicker Grant Ressel was as close to perfect as anyone in college football, making all 39 PATs and an incredible 26 of 27 field goals. What were the Lou Groza people thinking? Ressel wasn't even a finalist last year. Winner Kai Forbath (UCLA) missed an extra point, while finalist Leigh Tiffin (Bama) missed FOUR! and Georgia's Balir Walsh missed from inside the 40. It was probably Ressel's lack of attempts from 50+ that hurt him; the Groza people seem to like that, even if you only make 3 of 6 like Forbath. Maybe he'll get more consideration this year if he can repeat his success. Missouri does need a new punter as Jake Harry (42.8 average) moves on; either Matt Grabner or Trey Barrow, both walk-ons, will get the job.
Return Game: Cornerback Carl Gettis returned punts with a 7.1 average, and safety Jasper Simmons had a 22.6 yard average on kickoff returns. Both are back for their senior year.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #19
Gary Pinkel has built Missouri into a successful football school as of late, with five straight winning seasons. Recruiting has improved over the years in general and this year in particular is a standout top 25 class. While he didn't get any of the nation's very top recruits there are a half-dozen consensus blue chips in the group including Tyler Gabbert, the younger brother of starting QB Blaine.
2009 Recap Missouri opened with yet another win over Illinois in their neutral-field series, 37-9. They edged Bowling Green just 27-20 and beat Furman and Nevada to stand at an unimpressive 4-0. They dominated Nebraska for three quarters before big plays and a sudden offensive explosion left them 27-12 losers, and they lost to Oklahoma State and Texas in the following weeks. They won four of five at the end (lost to Baylor) due to an easy schedule in that stretch but couldn't stop Navy's running game and lost big in the Texas Bowl.
|
Missouri 2010 schedule & forecast |
||||||||
| 9/4 | Sat | N | Illinois | 62% | W | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | vs. | McNeese State | 87% | W | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | vs. | San Diego State | 74% | W | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | vs. | Miami (Ohio) | 75% | W | |||
| 10/9 | Sat | vs. | *Colorado | 64% | W | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | @ | *Texas A&M | 44% | L | |||
| 10/23 | Sat | vs. | *Oklahoma | 37% | L | |||
| 10/30 | Sat | @ | *Nebraska | 36% | L | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | @ | *Texas Tech | 36% | L | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | vs. | *Kansas State | 67% | W | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | @ | *Iowa State | 63% | W | |||
| 11/27 | Sat | N | *Kansas | 66% | W | |||
|
Projection Straight up: 8-4 Cumulative: 7-5
|
||||||||
2010 Outlook How many players can Missouri have out for the opener and still be heavy favorites over Illinois? Right now four starters will likely be out: RB Derrick Washington (susp.) and WR Jerrell Jackson (inj.) on offense, and LB Will Ebner (susp.) and safety Jarrell Harrison (knee) on defense. Even docking those players it looks like the Tigers should beat the Illini.
All of the above players should work their way back into the lineup over the next few cupcake games before the Big Twelve season starts, with the exception of Washington whose situation is up in the air. The Tigers will be heavy favorites to be 4-0, and to beat Colorado and go 5-0.
Then come four very tough games and Mizzou would be fortunate to win one of them. Followed by three more fairly easy wins and an 8-4 finish. The cumulative projection is pessimistic at 7-5. It's more likely the Tigers get an upset to go 9-3 than are upset themselves, but most of these games seem pretty clear cut so 8-4 is our pick. Even if Washington were to come back the situation doesn't change; Illinois is their "weakest" win and that figure already assumes four starters are gone. Losing Washington for the year just means they have even less chance of beating Texas A&M, but they still look like an 8-4 team.
| 29. Penn State Nittany Lions (Big Ten #3) Polls: AP #19 USA/Coaches #14 |
2009 Results: Record: 11-2 Bowl: Beat LSU 19-17 (Capital One) Poll finish: AP #9, USA #8
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #20 Success: #11 Overall: #15
Penn State will still be a good team but lose key players on both offense and defense.
Offense (7 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #48 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #62
With Darryl Clark gone Evan Royster becomes "the man" at Penn State.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #40 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #74
Darryll Clark departs after wowing Penn State fans for two exciting years, including last season when he passed for a touch over 3,000 yards and had 24 TD passes. In comparison Kevin Newsome had just 11 attempts as a freshman but he'll take over in the fall and the named starter this fall, true freshman Robert Bolden, had 0 attempts. That's right—for the first time ever, Joe Paterno is starting a freshman at quarterback in game one. He'll have three of the top four receivers back: top duo Derek Moye and Graham Zug combined for 1,385 yards and 13 TDs and Chaz Powell added 366 while departing tight end Andrew Quarless had 536. Expected replacement starter Curtis Drake broke his leg in fall camp and won't be available before the Big Ten season. The O-line was 21st in pass protection with just 17 sacks allowed so that will help Newsome Bolden acclimate, but production will likely sink.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #30 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #34
Evan Royster was the other main offensive star of the last two season and he's back after gaining 1,169 yards, down a bit from '08 but still a hefty 5.7 yards per carry. Stephon Green had 319 with QB Clark 3rd netting 211 (7 TDs). Backup QB Newsome ran for 95 (29 more than his passing yardage) so Clark's loss won't cause a dropoff on the rushing side of the equation. The offensive line should be as strong as it was last year. They lose Dennis Landolt and Ako Poti, but four who started most of the year are back: Stefen Wisniewski, Lou Eliades, Johnnie Troutman and DeOntae Pannell. Call it three or four starters back but it's still a very strong line and production ought to be relatively stable. Royster should have his third 1,000 yard season.
Defense (5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #9 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #14
Still a great defense, but without their linebackers not a top ten defense.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #9 Adj. Pass Def: #25 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #25 Sacks: #21
The Lion defensive line gets Ollie Ogbu and Jack Crawford (5.5 sacks) back though they lose Jared Odrick (7 sacks). At linebacker the losses are huge, though: Josh Hull (116 tackles), Navorro Bowman (14 tackles for loss), and all-time great Sean Lee (9 tackles for loss, 7 pass breakups). Penn State always has great linebackers and this year's group will be strong but for the purposes of comparison to last year it's a big fall. The secondary is in good shape with Drew Astorino, Nick Sukey (11 pass breakups), and D'Anton Lynn back. They lose four of the top five tacklers but 8 of the next 9 return.
Kicking Game: Collin Wagner (15 of 22 field goals last year) returns while Anthony Fera or Russell Nye should take over for Jeremy Boone (43.3 average but 31.7 net) at punter.
Return Game: Free safety Drew Astorino had a 7.9 yard per return average on punts, while receiver Chaz Powell averaged 23.2 per kickoff return.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #13
Joe Paterno finally outlasted Bobby Bowden, coaching alone among the two for the first time since 1969. Many believe this will be his last year. Of course that's been said for the last ten years. Despite the alleged recruiting problems that his advancing age were causing the Lions have done very well lately with back-to-back top 25 classes, this year's ranking #1 in the Big Ten. There are at least 10 consensus blue chips, with two of the best from Stamford, Connecticut: Running back Silas Red and linebacker Khairi Fortt.
2009 Recap Much was expected from last year's team and for the most part they delivered. Their first three opponents scored just 7, 7, and 6 points, but they were Akron, Syracuse, and Temple. Iowa came to town and Penn State led 7-0 after one play but couldn't do anything after that, losing 21-10. They rolled through the rest of the Big Ten before hitting Ohio State and falling 24-7. A poor performance against Indiana caused many pundits to predict they'd fall to Michigan State but they smoked the Spartans 42-14. They took on the SEC's LSU and got a win for the Big Ten, 19-17, in a sloppy-fielded Capital One Bowl.
|
Penn State 2010 schedule & forecast |
||||||||
| 9/4 | Sat | vs. | Youngstown State | 84% | W | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | @ | Alabama | 35% | L | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | vs. | Kent St | 71% | W | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | vs. | Temple | 65% | W | |||
| 10/2 | Sat | @ | *Iowa | 46% | L | |||
| 10/9 | Sat | vs. | *Illinois | 69% | W | |||
| 10/23 | Sat | @ | *Minnesota | 59% | W | |||
| 10/30 | Sat | vs. | *Michigan | 63% | W | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | vs. | *Northwestern | 67% | W | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | @ | *Ohio State | 35% | L | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | N | *Indiana | 72% | W | |||
| 11/27 | Sat | vs. | *Michigan State | 59% | W | |||
|
Projection Straight up: 9-3 Cumulative: 7-5
|
||||||||
2010 Outlook Three road games will prevent the Lions from having a perfect year. The first one, in game two, is the worst: Alabama (though Ingram might not be with the team). Two easy wins should follow before they travel to Iowa. That game is winnable but considering they couldn't beat the Hawkeyes at home with Darryl Clark they have to be considered road underdogs without him.
Four more (relatively) easy wins follow before Ohio State. Again, the same home-away comparison applies.
Apart from these three likely losses, Penn State has a truckload of just-as-likely wins. The main differences between this year and last year are: 1) No Darryl Clark, 2) No Sean Lee on defense, 3) Iowa and Ohio State are road games instead of home games, and 4) Alabama is added to the schedule replacing Syracuse as the token BCS-conference foe.
The cumulative projection calls for a 7-5 finish but that would require two pretty big upsets. Michigan State could be tough but yet again: Penn State beat them in Lansing, badly, and should still hold the edge in State College. I don't see Minnesota doing it either. 9-3 is where the Lions should finish this year.
| 30. Georgia Bulldogs (SEC #7; East #3) Polls: AP #23 USA #21 |
2009 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Beat Tex A&M 44-20 (Independence) Poll finish: AP #33 USA #32
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #28 Success: #23 Overall: #29
An improved offense and great special teams play offset a decline on defense.
Offense (8 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #24 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #18
The Bulldogs are old pros at making quarterback changes work; having an experienced O-line helps.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #54 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #52
Quarterback Joe Cox departs after throwing for over 2,500 yards and 24 touchdowns, and backup Logan Gray (42% completions, 0 TDs, 2 int.) didn't exactly inspire confidence in his limited play. Thus freshman Aaron Murray will likely take over this fall, with Gray moving to wide receiver leaving the QB corps to consists of four freshmen. Luckliy there's a lot of talent at receiver, with A.J. Green, Tavarres King, and tight end Orson Charles (over 1,500 yards combined) all back and six out of the seven who had 10+ catches returning. The offensive line allowed just 12 sacks (#7 in the nation, adjusted) and they'll be even better this year. So while the Bulldogs will be starting a freshman he's walking into a good situation and could be just as productive as his predecessor.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #35 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #24
The fleet of Bulldog running backs all return for 2010, from Washaun Ealey's 717 yards to starting fullback Shaun Chapas' 35 yards. In between are Caleb King (594, 7 TDs), Richard Samuel (395), and Branden Smith (208) among others. Samuel, however, moved to linebacker while Smith is a cornerback who may or may not be used as much on the offense. And Ealey will miss some early games (at least one) after driving without a license. But no matter; King can carry the load as long as he stays healthy. In fact, just about anyone should be able to run behind the Bulldog offensive line this year as five starters return: Clint Boling, Cordy Glenn, Ben Jones, Chris Davis, and Josh Davis, all upperclassmen. In addition Trinton Sturdivant who started all of 2007 is back from 2 years of injury. Part-time starter Justin Anderson defects to the defensive line but other than that there are few losses from last year's strong O-line which should lead the running game to higher heights.
Defense (5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #43 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #73
A new 3-4 scheme is used but there are too many holes to fill and Rennie Curran is gone.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #15 Adj. Pass Def: #67 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #46 Sacks: #37
Demarcus Dobbs is lone returner to the new three-man front as Georgia hopes to increase QB pressure while preserving last year's strong rush defense. Justin Anderson moves in from the offensive line while former defensive end Justin Houston (7.5 sacks) joins the linebackers. That group includes Darryl Gamble, part-time starters Marcus Dowton and Akeem Dent and former running back Richard Samuels but Rennie Curran is no longer with them; Curren led the team with 130 tackles last season. The secondary loses Reshad Jones (4 interceptions), Bryan Evans, and Prince Miller, with Brandon Boykin returning. The pass defense—by far the weaker component last year—may get even worse unless the new scheme compensates with a stronger pass rush. The defense appears to be weaker on the line and the secondary while strong at linebacker, but even there they lose their best player.
Kicking Game: Punter Drew Butler had an astounding 48.1 yard punting average (41.9 net) and Blair Walsh made 20 of 22 field goals. This is perhaps the best kicking duo in the nation.
Return Game: Corner Brandon Boykin returned three kickoffs for touchdowns last season. He returns but Prince Miller who averaged a strong 11.9 per punt return is gone, leaving yet another corner, Branden Smith, in charge.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #26
Mark Richt has been at Georgia for quite some time now—he's starting his 10th year, believe it or not. In six of his nine years the Bulldogs have had 10 or more wins. Recruiting here is easy in some way but hard in others—it's hard to keep up with the Joneses (or the Meyers) in the SEC, where even though Richt brings in a top 25-level class, it still sits as about average for the league. The class has about half a dozen consensus blue chips, with the majority on defense and most of them from the state of Georgia like D-back Alex Ogletree of Newnan. One top prospect, defensive end Jalen Fields, didn't qualify but for the most part the Bulldogs seem to have dodged the dreaded DNQ disease with this class.
2009 Recap In some ways Georgia's season ended in the first week with a 24-10 loss to Oklahoma State. Despite losing a top QB and running back (Stafford and Moreno) the Bulldogs had the same lofty expectations as always though we didn't agree, picking them to be 7-5. The loss to the Cowboys confirmed that they wouldn't be a national title player but wins over South Carolina, Arkansas, and Arizona State made them 3-1. To Bulldog faithful, they were screwed against LSU due to a faulty celebration penalty, and lost next week to Tennessee 45-19 because of the fallout. But really they just weren't that good. They fell to Kentucky for their fifth loss but finished strong, beating rival Georgia Tech 30-24 and topping Texas A&M in the Independence Bowl.
|
Georgia 2010 schedule & forecast |
||||||||
| 9/4 | Sat | vs. | LA-Lafayette | 79% | W | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | @ | *South Carolina | 42% | L | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | vs. | *Arkansas | 35% | L | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | @ | *Mississippi State | 47% | L | |||
| 10/2 | Sat | @ | Colorado | 58% | W | |||
| 10/9 | Sat | vs. | *Tennessee | 64% | W | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | vs. | *Vanderbilt | 72% | W | |||
| 10/23 | Sat | @ | *Kentucky | 53% | W | |||
| 10/30 | Sat | N | *Florida | 36% | L | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | vs. | Idaho State | 99% | W | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | @ | *Auburn | 38% | L | |||
| 11/27 | Sat | vs. | Georgia Tech | 48% | L | |||
|
Projection Straight up: 6-6 Cumulative: 7-5
|
||||||||
2010 Outlook This year's team is different in a lot of ways but in terms of quality it's about the same as the 2009 model. Which means that it's going to find the going tough again in conference play.
Non-conference isn't a problem for most of the year. At least two players, WR King and RB Ealey, are gone for Louisiana-Lafayette but that won't matter. They travel to Colorado which will be tougher, but hosting lowly I-AA Idaho State (1-10 last year) in November is a vacation. They close with Georgia Tech, which is close to a toss up despite being at home.
Games 2-4 are all tough, and will be made that much tougher if Ealey is still suspended. It's looking more and more like they could drop all three, but with luck after the Colorado game they could have a winning record and should beat Tennessee and Vanderbilt at home. Kentucky is a probably win, too but Florida and Auburn aren't strong candidates for W's. In all that makes the Bulldogs a pedestrian 6-6, or 7-5 if you go with the cumulative odds given rather than counting game-by-game.
Few of the games are tight, giving a narrow range of where we think the season can go. Winning the close ones will make them 8-4, losing all close games puts them at 5-7. But I think it will stay between the projections given above, one way or another. They might beat Mississippi State and lose to Kentucky, for instance, with Georgia Tech game determining whether they get that 7th win.
Comments