2010 Pre-season Rankings - #23 to #25: Texas A&M, Washington, Pittsburgh

The SportsRatings 2010 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams. These rankings predict how good the teams will be in 2009 before taking schedule into account, then the preview explores how well they should do given their schedule.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team. Two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win (straight up), and also an aggregate projection that allows for the uncertainty across a season (cumulative). The expectation for the team's season lies somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #23 to #25. To see the full list, click here.

23. Texas A&M Aggies (Big Twelve #5; South #4)     Polls: AP #40  USA/Coaches #46

2009 Results: Record: 6-7  Bowl: Lost to Georgia 44-20 (Independence)  Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #57    Success: #71    Overall: #57
The Aggies will still have a strong offense and the defense won't be nearly as much of a liability.

Offense (6 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #18   '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #14
A&M's powerful offense gets even better.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #18    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #11
Jerrod Johnson came through last year in a big way with 3,579 yards and 30 touchdowns through the air with only 8 interceptions. He's back along with his top three receivers, Uzoma Nwachukwu, Ryan Tannehil (backup QB), and Jeff Fuller (1,885 combined rec. yards, 17 TDs). They lose the next two, starter Howard Morrow and starting tight end Jamie McCoy (816 combined) but three others had over 15 catches in the pass-oriented offense. The only drawback is pass protection which was mediocre last year (29 sacks, #65 in nation adj.) and may be worse this year. Still, Johnson's senior year looks strong.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #23     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #27
The basic story: almost everyone who gained rushing yards is back, but the offensive line loses three starters. The bottom line: roughly the same production as last year in an offense that doesn't emphasize the run. The details: Christine Michael was a revelation as a freshman, gaining 844 yards and scoring 10 touchdowns, surpassing starter Cyrus Gray's 757. #3 was QB Johnson with 506 net (759 gross) and 8 touchdowns. The sack yardage lost will continue to be a problem as the offensive line loses three starters: Michael Shumard, Lee Grimes, and Kevin Matthews, all multi-year starters. Junior Evan Eike and soph Patrick Lewis are back, and senior Matt Allen will move into the starting lineup full time so the line should be fairly close to last year's model. Micheal and Gray will continue to be a solid 1-2 punch.

Defense (9 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #94 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #55
The defense will be much more experienced this year, and loaded for bear at linebacker.
• '09 Stats:  Adj. Rush Def: #92   Adj. Pass Def: #66   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #64   Sacks: #17
The Aggie defense excelled in one area last year—the pass rush—and that was due mostly to one person. Von Miller had a nation-leading 17 sacks last year and he's back to the A&M linebacking corps along with Garrick Williams, Kyle Mangan, and Michael Hodges. Hodges was a freshman last year along with Sean Porter, the team's #8 tackler despite starting just two games. With every key player back and the younger ones much more experienced, the core of the Aggie defense is far stronger. The D-line loses Matt Moss but Lucas Patterson is back along with Eddie Brown and Tony Jerrod-Eddie who combined to handle the other slot. The secondary loses Jordan Pugh but boasts #1 tackler Trent Hunter along with Terrence Frederick and Dustin Harris. Eight of the top nine tacklers return overall.

Kicking Game: Punting was a problem last year with Ken Wood and Ryan Epperson averaging 38.8 and 35.2 yards last season. Both are back and Epperson appears to have won the job. Kicker Randy Bullock made 12 of 19 field goals and returns. Though this is a weak area for the Aggies it should get better, or more accurately shouldn't suck quite as bad, this season.
Return Game: Corner Dustin Harris averaged 6.9 yards per punt return and Cyrus Gray had a touchdown on a kickoff return. Both are back but WR Ryan Swope may handle more kickoffs this year.
Coaching/Recruiting      '10 Recruiting Rank: #22
Mike Sherman's 2nd year as head coach brought the team back to a bowl game. He also brought in fired Louisville head coach Steve Kragthorpe as the wide receivers coach. Kragthorpe resigned over the summer, however. This year's recruiting class is a good one, ranking in the top 25 in the nation and the top half of the Big Twelve. It includes three great offensive line prospects: Jake Matthews, Luke Joeckel, and Cedric Ogbuehi, all consensus blue-chip recruits and all from the state of Texas.

2009 Recap The Aggies were one of the more hot and cold teams in the nation last season.They jumped to three wins over poor teams then lost to Arkansas and Oklahoma State (36-31). But after getting crushed by Kansas State 62-14 A&M turned around and beat Texas Tech—a much better team—52-30, and beat Iowa State 35-10. They narrowly lost to Colorado (35-34) but were destroyed 65-10 by Oklahoma. They finished strong, beating Baylor and staying close with Texas before losing 49-39. They made dozens of mistakes and lost in the Independence Bowl to Georgia 44-20.

Texas A&M 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Stephen F. Austin	86%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Louisiana Tech	67%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	Florida International	89%	W
9/30	Thu	@	*Oklahoma State	63%	W
10/9	Sat	N	Arkansas	36%	L
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Missouri	55%	W
10/23	Sat	@	*Kansas	67%	W
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Texas Tech	46%	L
11/6	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma	40%	L
11/13	Sat	@	*Baylor	61%	W
11/20	Sat	vs.	*Nebraska	45%	L
11/25	Thu	@	*Texas	44%	L
Projection   Straight up: 7-5   Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook The Aggies should kick off this season with three wins again, probably even four as Oklahoma State is in a rebuilding year. Arkansas in Arlington looks like a loss, but they can beat Missouri and Kansas to possibly start 6-1 this year.

The Texas Tech game will be interesting. It's at home and the Aggies beat the Red Raiders 52-30 last year. Right now we favor the Raiders to give some payback but it could be another shootout. They have another tough home assignment against Oklahoma, and after going to Baylor they come home for Nebraska. They finish at Texas, which could be close but leans to the Longhorns.

It looks like a 7-5 year for the Aggies. Six of the wins are pretty certain so bowl eligibility isn't much at risk. The team's chances for a better record depend on how the team plays at home. If they create for themselves a bigger home field edge they solidify the Missouri win and have a chance against Texas Tech and Nebraska, making a 9-3 year a possibility. Though both projections are pretty dead set on exactly seven wins, I'll give them one home upset and an 8-4 record.

 

24. Washington Huskies (Pac-10 #3)     Polls: AP #39  USA/Coaches #36

2009 Results: Record: 5-7      Bowl: None      Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #52    Success: #46    Overall: #52
Jake Locker is back for his senior year; if he stays healthy a bowl bid is almost guaranteed.

Offense (8 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #47   '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #22
The Locker-led Huskie offense should be one of the better ones in the country in 2010.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #53    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #22
Jake Locker improved his passing in his junior year, completing 58% for 2,800 yards and 21 touchdowns with 11 interceptions. Locker is truly a game-winner for the Huskies; note their 0-12 performance the year he was hurt, with a near-win over BYU while he was still at the helm. He'll have almost all his receivers back, too, including Jermain Kearse, Devin Aguilar, and James Johnson who combined for 1,881 yards and 16 TDs last season. Starting tight end Kavario Middleton (257) was dismissed for a rules violation over the summer, but three others who had over 150 receiving yards return. With only one starter gone the offensive line should offer Locker improved protection this season which is critical as Locker's health is a make-or-break for the Huskies. If he plays the whole season he is one of my favorites for the Heisman (favorite as in he *should* be the winner, and one of our top *could* win candidates) but if he's hurt there is a huge drop off to the backups.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #50     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #31
Chris Polk rushed for 1,113 yards and 5 TDs in 2009 and he returns well-established as Washington's #1 running back. The #2 rusher was QB Locker, who had more touchdowns (7) and 388 yards (577 net). The offensive line loses Ben Assai, a four-year starter, but three full-time starters are back (Ryan Tolar, Cody Habben, and Senio Kelemete) along with part-time starters Drew Shaeffer, Greg Christine, and Nick Wood. By cutting down on losses from sack yardage and providing better blocking, the O-line should pave the way toward an even better year for both Locker and Polk, who should excel in his sophomore frame.

Defense (6 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #51    '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #45
Two key losses harm the front seven while the secondary improves.
• '09 Stats:  Adj. Rush Def: #58   Adj. Pass Def: #83   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #57   Sacks: #34
Alameda Ta'amu and Cameron Elisara are back on the D-line, but the loss of Daniel Te'o-Nesheim (11 sacks) weakens the unit and jeopardizes their fairly lofty QB pressure ranking (#34 with 29 sacks). It's the same situation at linebacker: two starters gone including their top player, Donald Butler (#1 tackler, 14.5 tackles for loss). Mason Foster is back but the front seven are weaker and the rushing defense may suffer. There is less concern in the secondary as Nate Williams and Desmond Trufant return along with half-time starters Quinton Richardson and Adam Long. The pass defense should be much better but the probable decrease in sacks undermines that a bit and the rushing yardage allowed may increase. Defense may still be a problematic area for the Huskies.

Kicking Game: Kicker Eric Folk (18 of 21 field goals) and punter Will Mahan (40.6 yd. average) are both back.
Return Game: Devin Aguilar (8.0 average) is back to field punts again, as are kick returners Quinton Richardson (19.4 ave) and James Johnson (20.3).
Coaching/Recruiting      '10 Recruiting Rank: #11
Steve Sarkisian's first year was a good rebound from the Huskies' dismal 0-12 of 2008 under Tye Willingham. But Willingham probably would have done just as well, since getting Jake Locker back was the key. What Sarkisian is clearly doing better at is recruiting. This year's class is nearly in the top ten (#2 in the Pac-10) and will help out the team immediately. One of several consensus blue chip recruits is Josh Shirley, who committed to UCLA but got in trouble there and transferred to UW. He'll be eligible this year. Also in the mix for backup quarterback is Nick Montana, one of Joe's sons (the other, Nick, is a walk-on QB at Notre Dame).

2009 Recap It wasn't long before it was clear 2009 would be better than 2008. Facing LSU at home the Huskies kept it close and with a late score lost only 31-23. They got their first victory since 2007 when they beat Idaho 42-34, a win that was pretty impressive in retrospect. But it was nothing like the next one when the Huskies upended USC 16-13 to stand 2-1. They lost to Stanford, and then to Notre Dame (a bad call on a rumbling 2-point extra point run was key for the Irish), but won a crazy game against Arizona when a pass was intercepted off the receiver's shoe. Another wild finish followed, a loss to Arizona State on a last-second bomb. The Huskies lost three more before whipping Washington State 30-0 and belted Cal 42-10 for good measure, finishing 5-7.

Washington 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	@	Brigham Young	57%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Syracuse	69%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	Nebraska	45%	L
10/2	Sat	@	*Southern Cal	52%	W
10/9	Sat	vs.	*Arizona State	71%	W
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Oregon State	57%	W
10/23	Sat	@	*Arizona	53%	W
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Stanford	51%	W
11/6	Sat	@	*Oregon	36%	L
11/13	Sat	vs.	*UCLA	61%	W
11/27	Sat	@	*California	52%	W
12/4	Sat	@	*Washington State	79%	W
Projection   Straight up: 10-2   Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook Washington has a rough pre-Pac 10 slate with BYU on the road, an improved Syracuse, and Nebraska. They should be 2-1 after that. Then comes USC, the first of four very close games that they could win if they have luck on their side. USC, Arizona, Stanford, and Cal are the pivotal tossup games that decide whether Washington finishes 6-6 or 10-2.

The cumulative projection often comes in handy in these situations, and it foresees a conservative 7-5 year. Really, only Syracuse, ASU, UCLA, and Washington State are solid wins, with BYU and Oregon State fairly solid. Oregon is the only long-shot. That leaves Nebraska and four other games as possible splits, giving the Huskies eight or nine wins in 2010.

But I'm thinking Jake Locker is going to have a spectacular year. Call it a hunch but I think he's going out a winner big time and will guide Washington to a 10-2 season, possibly winning the Heisman Trophy. The Huskies might upset Nebraska early but lose one of the other close "wins." Everything has to go right for this to happen, and if Locker is injured UW might not even improve on last year's record. His year could parallel the season another Jake—Plummer—had with Arizona State in 1996. ASU went from 6-5 to 11-0—a gain of five victories—and their third opponent was Nebraska. Coincidence? I think not.

 

25. Pittsburgh Panthers (Big East #1) Polls: AP #15 USA/Coaches #15

2009 Results:   Record: 10-3   Bowl: Beat UNC 19-17 (Car Care Bowl)   Poll finish: AP #15, USA #15
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings:    Strength: #19   Success: #15   Overall: #19
The Panthers hope to continue the success of the last few years—and nab a Big East title, too.

Offense (5 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #19    '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #32
The passing game may slip a bit but Dion Lewis will keep on truckin'.
• Passing Game    '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #73    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #101
Bill Stull finally won over Pitt fans with his fantastic 2009 season, where he completed 65% for 2,633 yards and 21 touchdowns with just 8 interceptions. He departs and will be missed even as former starter Pat Bostick returns from redshirting. The job, though, probably goes to backup Tino Sunseri (2 TDs last year). A big plus: ace receiver John Baldwin (1,111 yards) is back. Baldwin averaged nearly 20 yards per reception and had 8 TD catches. They do lose tight end Dorin Dickerson (10 TDs) and Oderick Turner (combined for 746 yards) and two of the other five who had 10 or more catches. The line allowed just 15 sacks last year but protection might slip as only two starters return. Conclusion: don't expect too much out of Sunseri; Stull was a surprise that might not be repeated.
• Ground Game    '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #17    '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #18
Dion Lewis ran for 1,799 as a true freshman, scoring 17 touchdowns and taking heat off of Stull's passing game. In other words, he was the spark of the offense. Backup Ray Graham had 349 and Henry Hynoski added 107. All are back this year. The offensive line does suffer some losses: 4-year starter Joe Thomas and 2-year starters Robb Houser and John Malecki. Lucas Nix and Jason Pinkston return at the tackle positions but the run blocking won't be up to last year's standards. Don't expect a 2,000 yard season from Lewis though he could approach last year's numbers and is a legitimate Heisman candidate.

Defense (6 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #26    '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #27
The defensive line continues to stop the run and rush the QB effectively.
• '09 Stats:   Adj. Rush Def: #22   Adj. Pass Def: #59   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #21   Sacks: #2
Pitt bottled up the run pretty well but the defense's main claim to fame was the pass rush, where they ranked #2 in the nation (adjusted for opponents) racking up 47 sacks. That figure could slip a bit with the loss of both Gus Mustakas and Mick Williams who combined for 9.5, but with Greg Romeus (8) and Jabal Sheard (5) back there will still be plenty of downed quarterbacks, particularly as backup Myles Caragein (5 sacks) moves into the starting lineup and Brandon Lindsey and Chas Alecxih (8 combined) return. At linebacker they lose Adam Gunn (5 sacks) but Greg Williams is back with #1 tackler Max Gruder. The secondary loses Aaron Berry and Jovani Chappel (10 pass breakups each) though Dom DeCicco and Jarred Holly (3 interceptions each) return. Pitt's defense will still be a run-stopping, quarterback-sacking affair.

Kicking Game: Dan Hutchins was a decent punter (41.1 average, 34.5 net) and placekicker (23 of 29 field goals but just 4 of 9 outside the 40). He's back for 2010.
Return Game: Aaron Smith averaged 6.4 yards per punt return while Cameron Saddler had a great 25.3 yards kickoff return average. Both are back.
Coaching/Recruiting      '10 Recruiting Rank: #17
Dave Wannstedt finally has the Pitt program in a good place after so many years of wheel-spinning. Recruting has been great through most of his tenure and this season is no exception as the Panthers are #1 in the Big East and top 25 in the nation. The prize recruit was defensive end T.J. Clemmings from Paterson, NJ, with another New Jersey defensive lineman, Bryan Murphy, not far behind. A third consensus blue chip is wide receiver Todd Thomas.

2009 Recap Expectations, as usual, were high for Pitt in the pre-season and they started out 3-0, but when they were upset by North Carolina State 38-31 it looked like it might another year of broken promises. But the Panthers quietly won five in a row, topping Rutgers and USF along the way, and when they won the sixth—over Notre Dame, 27-22—they were 9-1 and everyone was paying attention. Of course they lost the next game, 19-16, to West Virginia, then led undefeated Cincinnati big before falling 45-44. They got some close-game luck in the Meineke Car Care Bowl, beating North Carolina 19-17.

Pitt 2010 schedule & forecast
9/2	Thu	@	Utah	54%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	New Hampshire	76%	W
9/23	Thu	vs.	Miami (Florida)	46%	L
10/2	Sat	vs.	Florida International	87%	W
10/9	Sat	@	Notre Dame	54%	W
10/16	Sat	@	*Syracuse	62%	W
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Rutgers	62%	W
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Louisville	78%	W
11/11	Thu	@	*Connecticut	55%	W
11/20	Sat	@	*South Florida	56%	W
11/26	Fri	vs.	*West Virginia	54%	W
12/4	Sat	@	*Cincinnati	50%	W
Projection Straight up: 11-1 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook The year kicks off with a tough task: go into Utah and come out with a win. It should be close but it looks like Utah may be a bit more banged up from fall camp than the Panthers giving them an added edge. After a win over tough FCS squad New Hampshire they face Miami. This time they're at home but we see them losing. One way or another Pitt should go 2-1 in September.

They get a breather against FIU before facing Notre Dame on the road, another tight game so it's possible that Pitt could be 2-3 at this point but still be a very good team.

The Big East season is easier than Pitt's pre-conference trials; they should open with three wins, get past the next three tough games and face Cincinnati for the Big East crown again. This tossup game falls barely to Pitt right now. Added up that's 11-1 but the odds are against that. The cumulative projection is 7-5 as there are six close wins listed for Pitt and just one close loss. 12-0 is not out of reach but would take a whole lotta luck, while failing to reach bowl eligibility would take extremely bad luck. Anywhere from 8 to 10 wins seems reasonable for this team's caliber. They may or may not improve upon last year's record but have a strong shot at a BCS bowl.

 

Comments

[H.R.]

Washington didn't quite live up to their billing did the? Pitt and TAMU are 6-3 so i guess they did but boy the Huskies hav been a dissapointment