2010 Pre-season Rankings - #20 to #22: South Carolina, Clemson, LSU

The SportsRatings 2010 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams. These rankings predict how good the teams will be in 2009 before taking schedule into account, then the preview explores how well they should do given their schedule.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team. Two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win (straight up), and also an aggregate projection that allows for the uncertainty across a season (cumulative). The expectation for the team's season lies somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #20 to #22. To see the full list, click here.

20. South Carolina Gamecocks (SEC #5; East #2)     Polls: AP #29  USA/Coaches #34

2009 Results: Record: 7-6    Bowl: Lost to UConn 20-7 (PapaJohn's)    Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #35    Success: #43    Overall: #37
South Carolina will be better in every way but it might not show up in their record.

Offense (7 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #82   '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #51
Improvements across the entire offense should lead to a more respectable scoring output.
• Passing Game: '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #38    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #25
Stephen Garcia's time might finally come. After two years of not living up to his promise, he could have a breakthrough year. Or not, we'll have to see. Last season was a big step as he started the entire year and threw for 2,862 yards and 17 touchdowns. He had 10 interceptions and only completed 55%, though. Part of the problem was a porous offensive line that allowed 37 sacks; there should be some improvement but it will be up to Garcia and his receivers, most of whom return. Top man Alshon Jeffery (763 yards, 6 TDs) is back, as is #3 Tori Gurley (440) but Moe Brown departs and starting tight end Weslye Saunders appears to be headed for ineligibility or dismissal as the season approaches. The group is deep, though, so the passing game still looks like a top 25 unit more or less.
• Ground Game:  '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #81     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #59
Kenny Miles, Brian Maddox, and Jarvis Giles combined for over 1,000 yards and Garcia added 186. All are back but there's a good chance true freshman Marcus Lattimore will start. Either way the rushing numbers should be juiced into the arena of respectability. The offensive line loses Lemuel Jeanpierre and half-time starter Garrett Anderson, while another part-timer, Quintin Richardson, is both suspended and injured so we assume won't play this year (update: and he just announced he's transferring). That leaves T.J. Johnson as the only full-time starter back, but Hutch Eckerson and Jarriel King started the majority, Kyle Nunn started about half-time, and Terrence Campbell started most of 2008. In any case it's an experienced line that should allow for a stronger running game.

Defense (7 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #12   '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #10
An already-tough defense gets just a bit tougher.
• '09 Stats:  Adj. Rush Def: #19   Adj. Pass Def: #7   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #13   Sacks: #25
The Gamecock defense was strong across the board last season. This year the 4-3 defensive line has two starters back, Ladi Ajiboye and Cliff Matthews, the co-team leader with 7 sacks. The other co-leader was linebacker Eric Norwood who departs, but #1 tackler Shaq Wilson is back with Antonio Allen. The secondary has three starters back: corners Stephon Gilmore and Chris Culliver (17 pass breakups, combined) are joined by safety Akeem Auguste. The defense is again going to be the strength of the team.

Kicking Game: Spencer Lanning is back to handle both punting and placekicking chores. Last year he averaged 41.9 yards per punt and made 17 of 20 field goals.
Return Game: Stephon Gilmore (10.1 average) will again field punts, and Bryce Sherman (20.9) who shared kickoff return duties with corner Chris Culliver (22.5) last year, will do so again. Both are sophomores.
Coaching/Recruiting      '10 Recruiting Rank: #44
Spurrier has had five years of middling success with the Gamecocks now and like the fans really wants that breakthrough year. Last year's recruiting class was nearly top ten and this one is smaller, ranking only 44th and nearer the bottom than the top of the SEC. Marcus Lattimore comes from Duncan, South Carolina and many have rated him the top running back prospect in the nation. He could very well start as a true freshman.

2009 Recap The Gamecocks started 2009 off with a fizzle, a 7-3 win over N.C. State, but a win is a win and though they lost to Georgia in game 2, they got many more wins in the coming weeks, including a 16-10 upset of Mississippi. At 5-1 they visited Alabama and lost 20-6 but their defense continued to keep them in games as they beat Vandy just 14-10. They lost three straight, falling 24-14 to Florida after giving them a lot of trouble. They came up with one last big effort, beating Clemson 34-17 but fell to UConn in the PapaJohn's Bowl.

South Carolina 2010 schedule & forecast
9/2	Thu	vs.	Southern Miss	65%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	*Georgia	58%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	Furman	87%	W
9/25	Sat	@	*Auburn	43%	L
10/9	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	41%	L
10/16	Sat	@	*Kentucky	59%	W
10/23	Sat	@	*Vanderbilt	71%	W
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	69%	W
11/6	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	40%	L
11/13	Sat	@	*Florida	38%	L
11/20	Sat	vs.	Troy	84%	W
11/27	Sat	@	Clemson	47%	L
Projection   Straight up: 7-5   Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook Look for the defense to keep South Carolina in the game this season, too, and for the offense to contribute more than last year. The season starts with a few good tests at home but the Gamecocks should handle Southern Miss and even Georgia fairly easily. Furman is a gimme but then they travel to Auburn and Alabama, two of the best teams in the SEC. Another three wins in a row should follow before they meet Arkansas and Florida back-to-back. Troy should be a win; Clemson on the road will be close but probably no cigar.

That makes for a 7-5 season, and the cumulative projection concurs. So do I, since most of the outcomes seem relatively clearcut. Falling short of bowl eligibility would require being upset twice, and surpassing 8 wins would mean beating some very good teams. Even getting to 8-4 is unlikely; the Clemson game is the best chance, and with the Tigers out for revenge at home that will be a tall order. So it appears to be another good-to-mediocre year for Spurrier and crew unless they pull a surprise out of the hat—for example, if Lattimore does a convincing Adrian Peterson impression.

 

21. Clemson Tigers (ACC #6; Atlantic #2)     Polls: AP #35  USA/Coaches #31

2009 Results: Record: 9-5  Bowl: Beat Kentucky 21-13 (Music City)  Poll finish: AP #24  USA #28
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #15    Success: #31    Overall: #18
Because Clemson underachieved last year the Tigers may do just as well without C.J. Spiller.

Offense (7 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #22   '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #24
The Tigers get Kyle Parker for one more year before losing him to baseball.
• Passing Game: '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #65    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #58
Kyle Parker was almost too good of a baseball player for the football team. A dual-sport star, as a freshman Parker passed for over 2,500 yards and 20 touchdowns and fans waited to see what he could do as a sophomore but dreaded the MLB draft. But Parker declared he was returning, and recently announced an agreement with the Colorado Rockies to allow him to play football one more year. That's great news for the Tigers, who didn't want to have to replace their quarterback in addition to their top three pass catchers: wide receiver Jacoby Ford, tight end Michael Palmer, and running back C.J. Spiller, who combined for nearly 1,800 yards and 14 TD catches. But four others who had over 100 yards return including Xavier Dye and tight end Dwayne Allen. The offensive line gave good protection last year (#31) and should be even better. The loss of top receivers prevents huge gains here but Parker should be even better as a soph.
• Ground Game:  '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #32     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #47
C.J. Spiller contributed in many ways to the team and his 1,212 yards and 12 TDs were major aspects. But he wasn't the only solid tailback as Andre Ellington had 491 yards with a 7.2 average and Jamie Harper had 418. The offensive line loses starter Thomas Austin but returning are Chris Hairston, Landon Walker, Antoine McClain, and Dalton Freeman. With such a strong O-line Ellington and Harper will do just fine, maybe not making up all of Spiller's contribution but having respectable totals each. Ellington in particular seems to have potential to be a great some day, perhaps this year as a sophomore.

Defense (7 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #16 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #16
It's pretty much a wash; a lot of talent is lost, and a lot returns, keeping Clemson's D in the top 25.
• '09 Stats:  Adj. Rush Def: #40   Adj. Pass Def: #12   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #19   Sacks: #24
The defensive line loses Ricky Sapp, who had 5 sacks and an additional 10 tackles for loss last year. Three starters return: Da'Quan Bowers, Brandon Thompson, and Jarvis Jenkins (who also had 10 tacklers for loss) but solid backup Jamie Cumbie was dismissed. They lose two of three starters at linebacker including Kavell Conner (#1 tackler w/111) while Brandon Maye (103 tackles) returns. The secondary should be fine despite losing Crezdon Butler and Chris Chancellor (19 pass breakups combined) as Marcus Gilchrist (107 tackles) and DeAndre McDaniel (102 tackles, 8 interceptions) return with Rashard Hall (6 int). Overall five of the top six tacklers return.

Kicking Game: Dawson Zimmerman had just a 39.1 yard per punt average, and kicker Richard Jackson made only 20 of 31 attempts. They're both back, is that good news? I guess they can only improve or someone else take their jobs, so ironically in relative terms this area is a strength.
Return Game: C.J. Spiller's biggest contribution to the team might have been as a kick returner. The Tigers will have another 1,000 yard rusher soon and 500-yard receivers are a dime a dozen. But where is the next return man who will score on four kickoffs and a punt? Once again it's bizarro world because having had Spiller (insane 26.3 average on punts and 32.8 on kickoffs) and Jacoby Ford (1 punt return TD), this year's team must be downgraded. Think about it: even if they get a punt returner who takes one back for a touchdown, and a kickoff returner who does the same, that's a decline of four touchdowns from last year. Losing 24 points over 12 games means this year's team is already 2 points per game worse than last year's squad.
Coaching/Recruiting      '10 Recruiting Rank: #28
Dabo Swinney took over mid-season in 2008 and last year matched Clemson's best win total of the last 20 years (matched three times in the 2000s, though). Fans have longed for one great year instead of constant 6- to 9-win seasons. Recruiting this year was good, giving hope that some day it might happen. But being #3 in the ACC every few seasons isn't necessarily going to stock the cupboard with talent. The Tigers got their share of blue chip recruits this time around, though perhaps the most touted of them, Martaveous Bryant, is headed to Hargrave to get his grades up. We'll see if he makes it back here or if someone else gets ahold of him.

2009 Recap Last season started with a thud, much like 2007 except this one was drawn out over five games. The Tigers beat Middle Tennessee which no one cared about, but it was among their best wins. The also beat Boston College 25-7, another win that was great in retrospect. But they fell by 3 to Georgia Tech, 14-10 to TCU, and by 3 to Maryland. Only the last one was a shame, as Maryland finished 2-10, but sticking close to Tech and TCU is pretty impressive. Looking back it was really Clemson who had the killer early schedule, not Miami. Anyway, they proceeded to win six games in a row before getting overconfident and falling to South Carolina; they then lost to Georgia Tech in another close game that would have put them in a BCS bowl. After making the season a disappointment, then redeeming themselves, and becoming a disappointment again, they salvaged some pride by beating Kentucky in the Music City Bowl 21-13.

Clemson 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	North Texas	82%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Presbyterian	100%	W
9/18	Sat	@	Auburn	43%	L
10/2	Sat	vs.	*Miami (Florida)	47%	L
10/9	Sat	@	*North Carolina	42%	L
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Maryland	69%	W
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Georgia Tech	51%	W
10/30	Sat	@	*Boston College	54%	W
11/6	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina State	71%	W
11/13	Sat	@	*Florida State	46%	L
11/20	Sat	@	*Wake Forest	62%	W
11/27	Sat	vs.	South Carolina	53%	W
Projection   Straight up: 8-4   Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook This season might be streaky, too. The two games at the beginning are wins—they had better be. While a coach might get away with his team losing to a team from the Sun Belt (see Nick Saban), no coach would survive losing to an 0-11 FCS squad.

The Tigers then travel to Auburn and face Miami and North Carolina; all are probable losses but close enough that winning one of them wouldn't be a surprise. After Maryland—the Tigers should win that game this year—they have two close "wins" over Georgia Tech and Boston College, and should beat N.C. State, too. They should be 6-3 by now. FSU will be tough, but Wake and South Carolina are winnable.

That would make them 8-4. The cumulative odds projection says 7-5. Either one makes sense; there are about five "given" wins and two losses, with the rest being very close. Very, very bad luck could leave the Tigers at 5-7, and the opposite luck would make them 10-2. The most likely outcomes are 8-4 or 7-5. If we had to pick one we'd go with 8-4.

 

22. Louisiana State Tigers (SEC #6; West #4)     Polls: AP #21  USA/Coaches #16

2009 Results: Record: 9-4  Bowl: Lost to Penn St. 19-17 (Capital One)  Poll finish: AP #17  USA #17
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #18    Success: #19    Overall: #20
LSU may have to get used to the role of spoiler in the SEC this year.

Offense (5 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #46   '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #38
Jordan Jefferson should have a much more productive year in 2010.
• Passing Game: '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #86    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #52
Jordan Jefferson is LSU's savior in some ways. Before he emerged the Tigers were saddled with Jarrett Lee who threw 21 touchdown passes in 2008—seven of them to the opponent. Jefferson was solid last year (2,166 yards, 17 touchdowns, 7 interceptions) but in comparison he was Jesus and Elvis combined. Lee completed 40% in relief so it doesn't appear he's improved much, but he still gives them an experienced backup who can run the offense. The receiver corps has thinned a bit, as only two are back who caught more than 10 passes: Terrence Toliver (#2 with 735 yards) and Rueben Randle (11 receptions 173 yards). Showing promise was tight end Deangelo Peterson, who had 2 TD catches among his 5 catches. But Brandon LaFell (792 yards, 11 TDs), Richard Dickson, and R.J. Jackson are gone and Jefferson's targets are reduced. The offensive line has to improve upon the 37 sacks they allowed last year, and its questionable how much they will. But Jefferson played only half the season in 2008 and missed time at the end of last year; now a junior, he's ready to have a complete year and LSU's passing game should at least be above-average in the FBS.
• Ground Game:  '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #67     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #81
Charles Scott didn't have the kind of year he wanted in 2009, grinding out just 542 yards after topping 1,000 the year before. Keiland Williams took over after Scott got hurt and finished #2 with 368. Stevan Ridley had 180 and is the only one of the three to return. Russell Shephard had 277 as a wildcat quarterback; he moves to wide receiver but still could be used in the formation I suppose. And Jefferson had 177 net rushing yards. Ridley will probably start this year but he averaged just 4.0 yards per carry and the offensive line doesn't look much stronger than last year as they lose 4-year starter Ciron Black and 3-year starter Lyle Hitt. Back are senior Joseph Barksdale and juniors Josh Dworaczyk and T-Bob Hebert, who will be a backup this year. Don't look for LSU to run over anyone this year unless a newcomer such as redshirt freshman Michael Ford emerges as a force.

Defense (4 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #11   '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #19
LSU's defense has been carrying the team lately and will still be strong—just not quite as strong.
• '09 Stats:  Adj. Rush Def: #21   Adj. Pass Def: #33   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #16   Sacks: #72
The Tiger defensive line features some fantastic names, from returning starter Lazarius Cortez "Pep" Levingston to freshman backup Barkavious Mingo, but talent-wise they lose three starters and will have to prove they can still key a top 25 rushing defense. Only one starter returns at linebacker, too, but it's #1 tackler Kelvin Sheppard (110 tackles). The unit loses the #2 and #3 tacklers, Perry Riley and Harry Coleman. The situation is better in the secondary where Patrick Peterson (13 pass breakups) and Brandon Taylor are back, but overall the defense loses a lot of key talent and will slip a bit from last year.

Kicking Game: Punter Derek Helton (40.0 average, 37.4 net) and kicker Josh Jasper (17 of 20 field goals) are both back for their senior years.
Return Game: Trinton Holliday was the team's primary return man last year, averaging a fantastic 18.1 yards per punt return with one touchdown, and 24.4 per kickoff return. Patrick Peterson has the unenviable task of replacing him as punt returner, while Russell Shephard and Ron Brooks (19.4 average last year) will field kickoffs.
Coaching/Recruiting      '10 Recruiting Rank: #5
Les Miles remains a polarizing coach. His supporters point to three 11+ win seasons under his watch and gutsy 4th down calls to beat Florida in 2007; his detractors would say he's LSU's Ron Zook (recruits but can't coach as evidenced by the clock-management loss to Ole Miss last year) or Larry Coker (won with previous coach's players but is overseeing the program's decline). One thing he's unquestionably done well at is recruiting. Because defense has been winning games for the Tigers the last several year while the offense has been sluggish, a decline in the defense this year hurts the team. But with the great recruiting classes LSU gets the talent has been replenished annually, preventing too great of a decline. This year's class is among the best in the nation and ranks about #3 in the SEC (behind Florida, but neck-and-neck with Auburn and Alabama). About 10 recruits are consensus blue chips, and LSU has so much incoming talent that, like other schools, they are pushing some of them into the class of '11 to meet scholarship number requirements. Some recruits are pushing back, however; offensive lineman Elliot Porter and linebacker Houston Bates were asked to grayshirt and instead they asked to be released from scholarship. Another recruiting setback occurred when quarterback Zach Lee opted for a baseball contract instead of coming to Baton Rouge.

2009 Recap We had expected LSU's role in the SEC to be diminished last year, but most people didn't and when they started 5-0 they were still being touted as a national title contender. It was clear, though, that the Tigers weren't up to snuff as they were less than dominant in beating Washington 31-23, Vanderbilt 23-9, Mississippi State by 4, and an inferior Georgia squad by 7 under controversial conditions. They tended to play at the level of their opponent; Florida beat them only 13-3, which shows how good LSU's defense was and how bad their offense was. They were 7-1 going into Alabama and again didn't embarrass themselves as the D kept things close, 24-15. The coaching staff blew it against Mississippi, losing 25-23 when they should have kicked a winning field goal but they pulled out an overtime win against Arkansas to go 9-3. In a tight game with Penn State the Tigers fell 19-17 and fell to 9-4, having lost to three top ten teams but defeated only three teams with winning records.

LSU 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	N	North Carolina	46%	L
9/11	Sat	@	*Vanderbilt	71%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi State	58%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	West Virginia	57%	W
10/2	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	69%	W
10/9	Sat	@	*Florida	38%	L
10/16	Sat	vs.	McNeese State	91%	W
10/23	Sat	@	*Auburn	43%	L
11/6	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	41%	L
11/13	Sat	vs.	Louisiana-Monroe	91%	W
11/20	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi	58%	W
11/27	Sat	@	*Arkansas	34%	L
Projection   Straight up: 7-5   Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook This will be another year where LSU is not a major player in the SEC or on the national scene. The opener against North Carolina (in Atlanta) will tell a lot about both teams' role in the top 25 pecking order, but UNC might be missing several players. The percentage above reflects the loss of some of them; the Tar Heels should still win but it should be counted as a tossup due to the uncertainty.

LSU should win their next four and therefore could be 5-0 at this point, but Florida again looks too tough for the Tigers in the Swamp. They get the first of two non-conference breathers when they face McNeese State. Then they travel to Auburn, and face Alabama, two games they'd be very fortunate to win. The second breather (Sun Belt's ULM) is their reward.

They close with Ole Miss and Arkansas and should be about 7-5. Might they slip under .500? Very doubtful, as the closest of the 7 wins are three home games and all look safe, so even bad luck would leave them 6-6. What is the team's upside? North Carolina could be a win, which would make them 8-4, but unless some of the other SEC teams don't live up to their billing, 9-3 is probably the best the team can hope for. The way recruiting has been going it won't be long before LSU is among the best teams in the nation, but for now it looks like another season of losing to the teams who are actually competing for the conference title.