The SportsRatings 2010 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams. These rankings predict how good the teams will be in 2009 before taking schedule into account, then the preview explores how well they should do given their schedule.
Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team. Two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win (straight up), and also an aggregate projection that allows for the uncertainty across a season (cumulative). The expectation for the team's season lies somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.
This installment covers teams from #17 to #19. To see the full list, click here.
| 17. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (ACC #4; Coastal #4) Polls: AP #16 USA/Coaches #17 |
2009 Results: Record: 11-3 Bowl: Lost to Iowa 24-14 (Orange) Poll finish: AP #13 USA #13
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #9 Success: #10 Overall: #10
The offense won't be quite so high-powered this year and Tech will slide in the Coastal division.
Offense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #2 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #13
Losing a 1,000 yard rusher and (incredibly) a 1,000 yard receiver hurts the offense.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #112 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #111
Josh Nesbitt completed only 46% of his passes, but that's not too important when A) your team is one of the best rushing teams in the country and B) your average completion goes for nearly 23 yards. In fact, Georgia Tech was even #1 in the nation in passing yards per attempt. The Tech pass play is a great diversion from the run and Nesbitt took advantage, throwing for 1,701 yards and 10 TDs with 5 interceptions. But eight of those TDs went to one man, Demaryius Thomas, who somehow managed to have 1,154 receiving yards on a team with a bottom 10 passing offense. Having a 1,000 yard season is impressive even at Texas Tech, but at Georgia Tech? No wonder he was a first-round NFL draft pick. The next four return but total about 1/2 of Thomas' receptions and yardage though each averaged over 20 yards per reception except, ironically, starting wide receiver Tyler Melton. Nesbitt should be more accurate in his senior year but without "Bay-Bay" Thomas the passing game won't be any more significant to the team than it was last year.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #2 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #5
The Ramblin' Wreck's option attack continued to bowl over opponents with two 1,000 yard rushers: QB Nesbitt (1,037 yards, 18 touchdowns) and Jonathan Dwyer (1,395 and 14). Dwyer's departure leaves a gap at the "B-back" position that Anthony Allen (618 yards last year) should fill nicely as he averaged 9.7 yards per carry. Other returnees include Roddy Jones (345), Marcus Wright (190), Embry Peeples (170), and Preston Lyons (139). While that's a lot of yards that can help replace Dwyer, the offensive line won't be quite as strong as three starters depart. Gone are Cord Howard, Brad Sellers, and Joseph Gilbert (who transferred to literal upstart Georgia State); seniors Sean Bedford and Austin Barrack return with Nick Claytor who started part-time in '08. The running game will still be among the best in the nation but won't vie for the top spot.
Defense (7 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #37 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #24
Georgia Tech's defense will be a big positive in 2010.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #64 Adj. Pass Def: #44 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #54 Sacks: #87
The defense switches to a 3-4 this year and with Logan Walls and Ben Anderson (now 2nd string) back the defensive line should be solid even with the loss of Derrick Morgan. But Morgan had 12.5 sacks last year, half the team's total, so Tech's already-dismal pass rush could get even worse. Despite losing a starter and having another slot to fill the four-man linebacker squad has a lot going for it. Anthony Egbuniwe moves in from the D-line and Steven Sylvester and Brad Jefferson (#1 tackler) return, while '08 starter Kyle Jackson is back, too. The secondary boasts Mario Butler and Jerrard Tarrant but without Morgan pressuring up front they may be busier. Overall though the defense should be much stronger; though they lose three of the top five tacklers the next 11 return.
Kicking Game: Punter Chandler Anderson (42.3 yards per punt) and kicker Scott Blair (14 of 20 field goals) are both back.
Return Game: Jerrard Tarrant returned two punts for touchdowns in 2009, jacking his average up to 13.4 per return. Orwin Smith had a solid 24.0 average on kickoff returns. Both are back for this season.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #51
Paul Johnson has had two years now to turn Georgia Tech into a triple-option nightmare for opponents, and by and large he's succeeded. Even in his first year the team went 8-4 during the season, and last year they were 10-2 then won the ACC title game. But both years the offense was stifled in the bowl game: first 38-3 by LSU, then 24-14 by Iowa (with one touchdown by the Tech defense). That means in two bowl games—where the opponent has a month to prepare—Tech's high-powered option has scored only 10 points. Something to keep in mind for this year's showdowns with North Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Georgia, all of whom have 2 weeks to prepare. Two D-backs, Louis Young and Ryan Ayers, are this year's recruiting class's consensus blue chips.
2009 Recap The Yellow Jackets edged Clemson to start 2-0 but were handled easily by Miami, 33-17. But then the Wreck went on a ramble, winning eight straight games including a key upset of Virginia Tech and an overtime win against Wake Forest to put themselves in the ACC title game. Just before that, though, their streak came to and end as Georgia beat them 30-24 at home. But they beat Clemson in a second close game (39-34) and made it to the Orange Bowl. There, they were whipped 24-14 by Iowa whose defense smothered the option perfectly. Still, they were 11-2 on the season.
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Georgia Tech 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/4 | Sat | vs. | South Carolina St. | 87% | W | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | @ | Kansas | 70% | W | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | @ | *North Carolina | 44% | L | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | vs. | *North Carolina St. | 73% | W | |||
| 10/2 | Sat | @ | *Wake Forest | 64% | W | |||
| 10/9 | Sat | vs. | *Virginia | 71% | W | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | vs. | M. Tennessee St. | 71% | W | |||
| 10/23 | Sat | @ | *Clemson | 49% | L | |||
| 11/4 | Thu | @ | *Virginia Tech | 38% | L | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | vs. | *Miami (Florida) | 49% | L | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | vs. | *Duke | 72% | W | |||
| 11/27 | Sat | @ | Georgia | 53% | W | |||
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Projection Straight up: 8-4 Cumulative: 7-5
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2010 Outlook It really does seem that teams with extra time to prepare for Georgia Tech do a lot better. Give a good defense a month, like LSU and Iowa had, and the Tech option is shut down. Miami had 10 days to prepare last year before beating them, and in 2008 Virginia Tech had Furman the week before while North Carolina had an open week. So that's 5 out of 7 losses in which their opponent had more than the standard one week to prepare.
This year North Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Georgia all have an open week before facing the Wreck. Since we've already got GTech losing the first two that leaves the Georgia game—which is in Athens this year—as one to watch.
Either way Georgia Tech should have another good year. Only North Carolina out of their first seven opponents should beat them. Then they travel to Clemson for what should be a tossup, but the Tigers will be out for blood after having lost twice in close games last year. Following that is another road opponent who will want revenge, Virginia Tech. The pivotal game is Miami at home, which could go either way. The final game at Georgia should be a win unless the Bulldogs get their defense ready for the option.
In all that makes the team 8-4 or 9-3 depending on Miami but very unlikely to repeat as Coastal champs, let alone ACC champs. The 7-5 cumulative projection is just too conservative, as there are seven solid wins on the board; it's essentially a worst-case scenario. Tech has a good shot at another 10+ win season, by scoring an upset somewhere and/or by winning their bowl game, but I don't think they'll get past Virginia Tech this time so further aspirations will have to wait. Giving them one of two against Clemson and Miami, the Rambling Wreck should finish 9-3 this year.
| 18. Florida State Seminoles (ACC #5; Atlantic #1) Polls: AP #20 USA/Coaches #20 |
2009 Results: Record: 7-6 Bowl: Beat West Virginia 33-21 (Gator) Poll finish: AP #34 USA #38
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #34 Success: #32 Overall: #33
The Jimbo Fisher era begins at Florida State with another hopeful pre-season.
Offense (8 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #13 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #4
A stronger ground game will complement a great passing attack in one of the best offenses in the country.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #19 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #6
Christian Ponder is widely expected to have a great senior year and some consider him a Heisman candidate. That depends on how well the Seminoles do, of course, but after throwing for 2,717 yards (with 69% completions) and 14 touchdowns (vs. 7 interceptions) in 2/3 of a season he'll be expected to post great numbers if he's healthy all year. He'll be protected by a line that returns all five starters and he has talented targets at receiver. The loss of top man Rod Owens (729 yards) and the summer dismissal of Jarmon Fortson (#3 with 610) kept the passing game from reaching a top five ranking, but they still have Bert Reed and Taiwan Easterling (1,152 yards combined) and three others who caught 10 or more passes. Backup QB E.J. Manuel had an interception problem (2 TDs, 6 int) but was otherwise accurate (65%) and will be ready in case Ponder is hurt again.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #28 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #12
The Seminoles spread out their rushing yardage among several running backs with Jermaine Thomas the leader at 832 yards and 9 touchdowns. Ty Jones was #2 with 251 and Lonnie Pryor and Chris Thompson both had over 100, but the #3 and #4 rushers were the team's mobile QBs. Ponder is famous for his running and had 179 net (318 gross) while Manuel had 196 net due to only losing 30 yards on sacks. The offensive line should not only reduce Ponder's sack losses but clear big paths for Thomas and company. All five starters are back, with seniors Ryan McMahon and Rodney Hudson and juniors David Spurlock, Zebrie Sanders, and Andrew Datko, all of whom have started since their freshman years.
Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #70 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #89
The defense, unfortunately, will hamper FSU's ability to rejoin the college football elite this year.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #101 Adj. Pass Def: #75 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #98 Sacks: #76
The Seminoles' sordid rushing defense from '09 will get better as the front seven improves but it still won't be ideal. The defensive had three starters back before Moses McCray was lost due to knee injuries; Marcus White (8.5 tackles for loss) and Everett Dawkins are back. At linebacker Kendall Smith and Nigel Bradham, the team's top two tacklers, return with backup Mister Alexander (5 sacks) while starter Dekoda Watson (6.5 sacks) departs and potential starter Nigel Carr was kicked off the team. The secondary faces big losses as they lose starters Korey Mangum, Jamie Robinson (4 interceptions), and Patrick Robinson (11 pass breakups) while backup Dionte Allen transferred. Ochuko Jenije (4 int) returns. Overall the defense's problems remain; they might just be shifted around a bit.
Kicking Game: Punter Shawn Powell (41.6 yd. ave) returns with kicker Dustin Hopkins (19 of 27 field goals last year).
Return Game: Cornerback Greg Reid was a strong kick returner in '09, with an excellent 18.4 average on punt returns (1 touchdown) and 25.5 yards per kickoff. He could be even better in his sophomore year.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #7
Recruiting has always been good at FSU and this year is no exception for Jimbo Fisher's debut. The best class in the ACC boasts nearly a dozen blue chips, the best of whom is D-back Lamarcus Joyner from Ft. Lauderdale, one of the nation's top prospects. They even got a gift from USC in the form of Glen Stanley, who transferred due to the sanctions. Though the program faltered in Bobby Bowden's last decade it never went underwater, something few coaches and programs can say; even all-time winner Joe Paterno had four losing seasons during that span. Bowden was ousted in a way that Penn State couldn't bring itself to do to Paterno five years ago, a victim of his own success from the mid-80s to the late 90s.
2009 Recap FSU's 2009 began the way every season has recently—with the hope of a return to double-digit wins that they enjoyed for 14 straight seasons in their heyday. They lost the opener to Miami on an end-zone incompletion and struggled with I-AA Jacksonville State, but after blowing up BYU for 54 points there was some hope. Three straight losses—South Florida, Boston College, and Georgia Tech— killed that hope. The defense continued to let the team down throughout the season as they gave up 27, 42, 28, and 26 points in their subsequent wins, and 40 and 37 in losses to Clemson and Florida. Bowden's "retirement" was announced before the Gator Bowl, where an undeserving 6-6 Seminole squad was shuttled to pair Bowden with his former team. FSU played well and won 33-21, ensuring that Bowden wouldn't have a losing season to blemish his record since the one in 1976, his first year at the helm.
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FSU 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/4 | Sat | vs. | Samford | 91% | W | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | @ | Oklahoma | 37% | L | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | vs. | Brigham Young | 66% | W | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | vs. | *Wake Forest | 70% | W | |||
| 10/2 | Sat | @ | *Virginia | 64% | W | |||
| 10/9 | Sat | @ | *Miami (Florida) | 42% | L | |||
| 10/16 | Sat | vs. | *Boston College | 61% | W | |||
| 10/28 | Thu | @ | *North Carolina St. | 67% | W | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | vs. | *North Carolina | 49% | L | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | vs. | *Clemson | 54% | W | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | @ | *Maryland | 65% | W | |||
| 11/27 | Sat | vs. | Florida | 45% | L | |||
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Projection Straight up: 8-4 Cumulative: 7-5
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2010 Outlook FSU might not make it back to double-digit wins this year, but they've got a good shot as they could make it to the ACC title game as the Atlantic representative. In any case they should have a good year by recent standards.
Scheduling a game at Oklahoma rather than taking on a Sun Belt team this year shows courage but probably ends up hurting their record. They do start with FCS team Samford and should be 4-1 after beating BYU, Wake, and Virginia.
That sets up a showdown at Miami that looks like a loss this year but they should rebound with victories over B.C. and N.C. State. In their last four games they face North Carolina, Clemson, and Florida, all top 25 teams but all at home so they have a chance to win two or even three of those, but most likely they'll go 1-2. This would leave them 8-4 or maybe 7-5 if they're upset somewhere along the line.
FSU has 7 pretty solid wins on the board and only one loss that looks inevitable. Split the rest and they're 9-3, and by winning either the ACC title game or a bowl, that would be 10 wins. Particularly of note is the UNC game, a tossup in Tallahassee against a team that might be crippled by sanctions (or not). I think it's about even odds whether FSU finishes 8-4 or 9-3 in the regular season, and they might have two chances after that to pad their record further.
| 19. Stanford Cardinal (Pac-10 #2) Polls: AP #27 USA/Coaches #32 |
2009 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Lost to Oklahoma 31-27 (Sun) Poll finish: AP #29 USA #30
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #23 Success: #22 Overall: #23
QB Andrew Luck, special teams, and good recruiting give the Cardinal a boost in the wake of Toby Gerhart's departure.
Offense (8 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #6 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #10
Andrew Luck's passing will make up for (most of) the loss of Toby Gerhart.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #63 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #35
Andrew Luck is high on many people's draft boards, fantasy leagues, and even Heisman lists after a strong performance as a freshman. He passed for 2,575 yards and 13 touchdowns with just 4 interceptions. If he raises his completion rate (56%) he'll have the whole package as he can run, too. His three top receivers are back: Ryan Whalen (926 yards), Chris Owusu (682), and Coby Fleener (266). The offensive line gave up just 7 sacks (#1 in the nation, adjusted for opposition) and is just as good this year. The only thing preventing Luck from having an even bigger leap is that he won't have Gerhart to distract the defense's attention.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #10 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #22
Toby Gerhart was a Heisman finalist last year and bowled over defenses to the tune of 1,871 yards and and astounding 28 touchdowns. His loss is going to create the need for a lot of adjustment on offense. Sophomore Stepfan Taylor had 303 yards while senior Jeremy Stewart added 107 (343 two years ago) and one of them will inherit Gerhart's mantle. QB Luck was actually the team's #2 rusher with 343, with a lot of help from an offensive line that rarely let opposing defenses get sack yardage. With four starters back the line should be even stronger and make the unenviable task of following Gerhart's act a bit easier. Chase Beeler, Andrew Phillips, Jonathan Martin, and David DeCastro are all back while Chris Marinelli departs. Neither Taylor or Stewart will match Gerhart's output—they probably won't, combined—but Stanford will still have an excellent running game.
Defense (7 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #61 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #63
The change to a 3-4 might leave the defense no better or worse than last year, but it's worth a shot.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #61 Adj. Pass Def: #106 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #76 Sacks: #88
The four-man defensive line is dispersed as Thomas Keiser moves to linebacker, Ekom Udofia departs, and several players made up another slot and some are gone, leaving Sione Fua as the only real returning starter as the line switches to 3-man. At linebacker in addition to Keiser they have sophomores Shane Skov and Chase Thomas back. The secondary loses #1 tackler Bo McNally but Richard Sherman and Delano Howell return along with two half-time starters. Overall just 6 of the top 12 tacklers return, however.
Kicking Game: Both punter David Green (41.2 average) and kicker Nate Whitaker (made 16 of 22 field goals last year) are back.
Return Game: Receiver Chris Owusu returned three kickoffs for touchdowns in 2009 giving him a 31.5 yard average in that department. Corner Richard Sherman returned one punt for a TD and averaged 10.3 per attempt. Both are back on one of the strongest kick return teams in the nation.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #23
Jim Harbaugh had a lot of detractors when he came to Stanford but he's gotten the job done; Stanford had their first winning season since 2001 last year. He's recruited well, too, with his 2nd straight top 25 class. This one features three consensus blue chip players: QB Brett Nottingham and running back Anthony Wilkerson from California, and linebacker Blake Lueders of Indiana.
2009 Recap With high hopes (and our prediction of a winning season) Stanford began 2009 with a strong win over weak Washington State, then stumbled (with the help of questionable officiating) to Wake Forest in game two. They got three more unimpressive wins before falling to Oregon State and Arizona, and it didn't seem like anything special was going to happen to this 4-3 team. Then with Toby Gerhart getting Heisman attention they won three straight, beating both Oregon (51-42) and USC (55-21). The latter win showed how far the program had come as it was a record loss for the Trojans at home. They fell to Cal, though, preventing a Rose Bowl year but beat Notre Dame as Gerhart ran wild. They fought Oklahoma hard but lost in the Sun Bowl 31-27.
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Stanford 2010 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/4 | Sat | vs. | Sacramento State | 98% | W | |||
| 9/11 | Sat | @ | *UCLA | 59% | W | |||
| 9/18 | Sat | vs. | Wake Forest | 69% | W | |||
| 9/25 | Sat | @ | Notre Dame | 57% | W | |||
| 10/2 | Sat | @ | *Oregon | 38% | L | |||
| 10/9 | Sat | vs. | *Southern Cal | 60% | W | |||
| 10/23 | Sat | vs. | *Washington State | 89% | W | |||
| 10/30 | Sat | @ | *Washington | 49% | L | |||
| 11/6 | Sat | vs. | *Arizona | 61% | W | |||
| 11/13 | Sat | @ | *Arizona State | 66% | W | |||
| 11/20 | Sat | @ | *California | 55% | W | |||
| 11/27 | Sat | vs. | *Oregon State | 59% | W | |||
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Projection Straight up: 10-2 Cumulative: 8-4
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2010 Outlook Life looks good post-Gerhart for this team. In fact only one game looks out of reach making 11-1 a possibility.
Certainly the year starts out easy with I-AA Sacramento State. They should get revenge on Wake at home and even UCLA and Notre Dame on the road don't appear all that daunting; the Cardinal should be 3-1 at worst at this point. Then comes Oregon on the road and very probable defeat.
After that they face USC at home (no biggie, right?) another gimme (Washington State), then travel to Washington for their pivotal game. The last four games are wins of varying certainty, but there are at least six games they can count on as wins, making the cumulative projection of 8-4 very reasonable and 10-2 not outlandish. Since it's hard to count either Notre Dame or USC as an "automatic" I would expect around 9 wins from this team, but—I have to say it, sorry—with a little more Luck this season could be one to remember.
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