2010 Pre-season Rankings - #14 to #16: Wisconsin, Auburn, Texas

The SportsRatings 2010 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams. These rankings predict how good the teams will be in 2009 before taking schedule into account, then the preview explores how well they should do given their schedule.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team. Two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win (straight up), and also an aggregate projection that allows for the uncertainty across a season (cumulative). The expectation for the team's season lies somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #14 to #16. To see the full list, click here.

14. Wisconsin Badgers (Big Ten #2)      Polls: AP #12 USA/Coaches #12

2009 Results: Record: 10-3   Bowl: Beat Miami 20-14 (Champs)   Poll finish: AP #16 USA #16
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #29     Success: #17     Overall: #27
Can Wisconsin really be a national title contender? You better believe it.

Offense (10 RS)     '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #27      '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #9
A great offensive line will aid both the passing and rushing game.
• Passing Game: '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #52      '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #21
Though Wisconsin is traditionally a power running team, quarterback Scott Tolzien was reasonably productive and efficient as the starter last year with 2,705 yards (64%) and 16 touchdowns vs. 11 interceptions. Among the top receivers the Badgers lose only tight end Garrett Graham (#2 with 624 yards) while Nick Toon (805 yards) returns with Isaac Anderson and the other starting tight end, Lance Kendricks. The offensive line should improve on the 23 sacks allowed last year as five starters return. All things considered (a senior quarterback with his receivers returning and a strong O-line) the Badgers should have a strong passing attack this year.
• Ground Game:   '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #16     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #6
John Clay finished just north of 1,500 yards rushing and scored an amazing 18 touchdowns. Backups Montee Ball and Zach Brown had an inferior per-carry average but added a combined 670, and both backup QB Curt Phillips (out for perhaps six games recovering from a spring ACL tear) and TE Kendricks had over 100. All of the above are back and if that's not enough, the offensive line returns five starters. Seniors John Moffit and Gabe Carimi anchor the line and Kevin Zeitler, Josh Oglesby, and Peter Konz are all back, too. With what should be one of the nation's best O-lines leading a top RB, Wisconsin should easily be a top ten rushing team and Clay could put up Ron Dayne-like numbers.

Defense (6 RS)      '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #34     '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #30
The Badgers are weaker up front but about the same overall.
• '09 Stats:  Adj. Rush Def: #4    Adj. Pass Def: #49   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #45    Sacks: #9
The defensive line is the area of concern for the Badgers as they lose three starters including O'Brien Schofield who had 12 sacks and an additional 12.5 tackles for loss. That loss alone will sink their top ten sacks rating from '09. Returning is J.J. Watt, who had 11 tackles for loss himself. At linebacker they lose #1 tackler Jaevery McFadden but #2 tackler Culmer St. Jean and co-starters Mike Taylor and Chris Borland (5 sacks) are back (Taylor may miss a number of games while finishing recovery from knee surgery). The secondary loses just one starter as Jay Valai and Devin Smith (9 pass breakups) return along with half-time starters Niles Brinkley and Atonio Fenelus. Overall it appears that the Badgers' top five rushing defense and certainly their top ten sacks rating will be down but the pass coverage should improve.

Kicking Game: Brad Nortman averaged 42 yards per punt while Philip Welch made 17 of 24 field goals (with a long of 57). Both return this year.
Return Game: Receiver David Gilreath was the Badgers' designated return man last year. He averaged just 5.6 yards per punt return despite returning one 68 yards for a touchdown (that's 2.5 yards per return for the rest). As a kickoff returner he averaged a solid 23.7. He's back this year and is on the Paul Hornung Award watchlist.
Coaching/Recruiting       '10 Recruiting Rank: #32
Bret Bielema has continued to have seasons worthy of Barry Alvarez who he succeeded as head coach. Recruiting this year was good but not spectacular as the Badgers have a dearth of very top players but rather a workmanlike crew of very good ones.

2009 Recap Wisconsin got better as the season progressed last year. At 5-0 the Badgers were very overrated. From barely beating Northern Illinois at home and needing two overtimes to top Fresno State, and edging Michigan State and Minnesota they had not impressed at all; their only convincing win was over Wofford. As expected reality hit and they fell big to Ohio State on the road and Iowa beat them at home. After they blanked Purdue 37-0 and manhandled Michigan but edged Indiana 31-28 and fell 33-31 to Northwestern they became underrated, with many suggesting that they were vulnerable to Hawaii on the road. The Badgers responded by destroying the Warriors 51-10 and, at the end of the month they stifled Miami with a strong pass rush and held on to win 20-14.

Wisconsin 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	@	UNLV	78%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	San Jose State	99%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	Arizona State	77%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	Austin Peay	100%	W
10/2	Sat	@	*Michigan State	61%	W
10/9	Sat	vs.	*Minnesota	73%	W
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Ohio State	50%	W
10/23	Sat	@	*Iowa	55%	W
11/6	Sat	@	*Purdue	73%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Indiana	84%	W
11/20	Sat	@	*Michigan	66%	W
11/27	Sat	vs.	*Northwestern	75%	W
Projection Straight up: 12-0 Cumulative: 9-3

2010 Outlook No one ever mentions Wisconsin as a possible national champion. They've had a handful of 10+ win seasons but even in their best years (1-loss in 1998, 2006) they're never in the mix for the national title. So it seems like no matter how well they do a Rose Bowl trip is all that's on the table.

But any Big Ten team that goes undefeated will be in the national title race. Last year and 2004 were anomalies; normally there are 1-2 undefeated teams, sometimes none, before the bowls. And Wisconsin has a pretty decent shot at going undefeated, with basically two hurdles to jump to get there.

The early schedule is easy with basically two complete gimmes (San Jose State and I-AA Austin Peay at home) and just UNLV as a road game. Michigan State and Minnesota should be fairly easy Big Ten wins, then comes the pivotal part of the year: hosting Ohio State (a complete tossup, we say) and traveling to Iowa.

There's a psychological hurdle, too. Beat Ohio State and the Badgers still have to stay sharp and focused when they go to Iowa City. Win that one and the focus has to remain over the last four weeks against teams they ought to beat.

That's why I figure history will repeat itself and the Badgers will go 11-1 or 10-2 and not be in the national title picture. The 9-3 cumulative projection is too pessimistic as I can't see three games the team should lose, but they probably aren't quite good enough to sustain a 12-0 year.

It's a definite possibility, though, so I'm going to predict that one way or another they will be the Rose Bowl representative, either by being the top team in the Big Ten, or from Ohio State going to the BCS championship game.

 

15. Auburn Tigers (SEC #4; West #3)     Polls: AP #22  USA/Coaches #22

2009 Results: Record: 8-5  Bowl: Beat Northwestern 38-35ot (Outback)  Poll finish: AP #32 USA #31
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #26    Success: #29    Overall: #28
Last year Auburn was all offense; this year the defense catches up.

Offense (7 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #15   '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #21
Auburn loses their quarterback and a 1,000 yard running back but the offense remains strong.
• Passing Game: '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #57    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #62
Quarterback Chris Todd had a productive year with the Tigers, throwing for 2,612 yards, but the more impressive part was his 22 to 6 touchdown to interception ratio, and that's going to be the hard part for JUCO recruit Cameron Newton to replicate when he takes over in the fall. The Tigers still have last year's back up Neil Caudle (20 attempts) and Kodi Burns (started in '08) who moved to receiver but is theoretically available to run the wildcat again. But Newton is probably the one who will lead the offense, and he's got most of last year's best receivers available including Darvin Adams who was 3 yards shy of 1,000 and had 10 TD catches. Terrell Zachary, Mario Fannin, and Eric Smith combined for another 1,000 and 9 TDs. A stronger offensive line will help Newton ease into the job with relative safety, and production will remain roughly the same. The TD:interception ratio is all up to Newton.
• Ground Game:   '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #8     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #11
Ben Tate rushed for 1,362 yards as the running game gave Auburn most of its push last season. Ontarrio McCalebb had 565 while Mario Fannin averaged 8.4 yards per carry and added 285 (receiver Terrell Zachary beat that by gaining 214 yards in just 9 carries—a 23.8 yard average—due to runs of 67, 60, and 50 yards). With Tate gone the others will have to pick up the slack—1,000 yards of it. It's possible, thanks to the offensive line which returns four starters. Andrew McCain is gone but he had only started one season, whereas Ryan Pugh, Byron Isom, Mike Berry, and Lee Ziemba are all seniors with over 8 years of starting experience combined. The group's production should slip only slightly.

Defense (8 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #56 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #18
The Tigers lose their best lineman and best cornerback and still make a great leap forward on D.
• '09 Stats:  Adj. Rush Def: #54   Adj. Pass Def: #71   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #18   Sacks: #31
The Auburn defensive line has two starters back, Mike Blanc and Antoine Carter, both seniors. But one of the two lost is Antonio Coleman, who had 10 sacks. Although this doesn't bode well at all for having an effective pass rush, the team's rushing defense may improve because of all the experience at linebacker. All three starters return—Josh Bynes (#1 tackler w/104), Craig Stevens (#2 tackler), and Eltoro Freeman—and starting safety Darren Bates joins them. The team's pass defense was solid last year despite the yardage given up and this year should be even better. Though Bates moves to LB and best player Walter McFadden (10 pass breakups, 6 interceptions) moves on the NFL, Neiko Thorpe and Zac Etheridge return and re-joining the secondary are '08 starter Mike McNeil and '06(!) starter Aairon Savage. The team's top five tacklers are back and with a strong linebacker corps the Auburn defense will be the equal of the offense. In any case, they will no longer be what holds the team back.

Kicking Game: Kicker Wes Byrum is still with the team; a senior now he's made some memorable kicks for the Tigers and was 15 of 16 last year. Punter Clinton Durst departs after averaging 40.8 per kick, and Ryan Shoemaker—who averaged 42.4 ypp for the Tigers in 2007—will reclaim his old job.
Return Game: Auburn had no effective punt returners last year and Quindarius Carr will try to rectify that. Demond Washington had a touchdown on a kickoff return last year, pumping his average up to 31.1 yards, and Mario Fannin (21.2) will continue to field kicks as well.
Coaching/Recruiting      '10 Recruiting Rank: #4
Auburn's 2010 recruiting class is, at worst, in a 3-way tie for 2nd in the SEC. Gene Chizik hasn't missed a beat compared to Tommy Tuberville in that area. There has also been less attrition from the group than there was last year; the biggest loss so far was due to cancer, which may end blue chip offensive lineman Shon Coleman's career. Michael Dyer from Little Rock was one of the very top-rated running backs in the nation, and QB Cameron Newton is a dual-threat slated to start this year after his team won the JUCO national championship in '09.

2009 Recap Last year we predicted that Auburn would start 5-0 and create big expectations, then finish a mediocre 7-5. Not surprisingly when Auburn did in fact start 5-0 the team jumped into the Top 25. But as we foretold, it wouldn't last. They lost 5 of the next 7 and finished 7-5, but with one twist: instead of beating Kentucky they lost to them, which caused some distress as they dropped three games in a row. But then they actually beat Mississippi for their best win of the year. They played Alabama pretty tough in their last game, too, but fell 26-21. Northwestern fought them to the very end—overtime even—and Auburn needed several botched kicks by the Wildcats to win. In the end the team was better than we forecast even as the predicted record matched.

Auburn 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Arkansas State	88%	W
9/9	Thu	@	*Mississippi State	56%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	Clemson	57%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	*South Carolina	57%	W
10/2	Sat	vs.	Louisiana-Monroe	95%	W
10/9	Sat	@	*Kentucky	62%	W
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	44%	L
10/23	Sat	vs.	*LSU	57%	W
10/30	Sat	@	*Mississippi	56%	W
11/6	Sat	vs.	Tenn.-Chattanooga	96%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Georgia	62%	W
11/26	Fri	@	*Alabama	39%	L
Projection   Straight up: 10-2   Cumulative: 8-4

2010 Outlook This year the Tigers could start 6-0, and better still? There probably won't be any collapse at the end. With only Arkansas and Alabama as "solid" losses, the team could finish 10-2.

There are a lot of caveats to this, of course. Namely that three of the first six games—Mississippi State, Clemson, and South Carolina—are not gimmes at all. Later on LSU and Ole Miss are counted as wins, too, and will be just as difficult. It's almost more reasonable to assume the Tigers will go 3-2 in those games (maybe winning the home contests) and give them an 8-4 record. That's pretty much what the cumulative projection does to reach it's 8-4 conclusion.

All of this is contingent on a few things: the new quarterback has to be competent (not great, just competent). The running game can't slip very much. And the defense has to improves as much as I expect it to, which is a lot. Without those things happening the team could sink below .500.

But I expect those things to happen at least to a certain degree, meaning that a 10-2 record is not wishful thinking. Maybe it's more realistic to at least expect the Tigers to drop one of the five aforementioned games and finish 9-3. Either way, a good year in Gene Chizik's third season.

 

16. Texas Longhorns (Big Twelve #4; South #3)     Polls: AP #5  USA/Coaches #4

2009 Results: Record: 13-1  Bowl: Lost to Alabama 37-21 (BCS Title)  Poll finish: AP #2 USA #2
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #3    Success: #6    Overall: #4
Texas floundered in the BCS title game without Colt McCoy; now they have a whole season without him.

Offense (5 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #1   '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #28
The McCoy to Shipley express has left the station and with it, much of Texas' offense.
• Passing Game: '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #17    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #79
There could be no better demonstration of Colt McCoy's worth to the Texas football team than last year's national championship game, which will forever have Longhorn fans asking "what if?" McCoy's final season saw him have another astounding completion rate (71%) pass for over 3,500 yards with 27 touchdowns. The interceptions (12) were higher but he led Texas to 13 wins—almost blowing the Nebraska game in the final seconds. He finished #3 in the Heisman voting after finishing #2 in 2008. Garrett Gilbert showed flashes of brilliance in replacing him, along with moments of utter incompetence; hopefully being thrust onto that stage will do him years of good. He had 2 TD passes and 4 interceptions in the title game. Both of those touchdowns went to leading receiver Jordan Shipley (116 receptions, 1,485 yards, 13 TDs) and he's gone which is going to make things tough on Gilbert. He'll have Malcolm Williams and James Kirkendoll (~1,000 yards combined) and three out of the four others that had 100+ yards, but it's not the same as having a clutch player like Shipley who deserves a lot of credit for McCoy's success. The offensive line allowed 31 sacks last year and loses three starters, not ideal for breaking in a new QB. In all Texas is going to have some growing pains as they switch to Garrett Gilbert; by the end of the year I think he'll be doing great but there will be bumps along the way.
• Ground Game:   '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #44     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #54
In 2008 Colt McCoy led the team in rushing; last year he was only #2 as Tre Newton finished with 552 yards to McCoy's 348. Cody Johnson was the big scorer with 12 touchdowns (335 yards) and Vondrell McGee had 300. In all six players rushed for over 100 yards and of them McCoy is the only one gone. That's the good news. The bad news is that the offensive line loses a lot of experience as 4-year starter Adam Ulatoski and 3-year starters Chris Hall and Charlie Tanner depart. Back are seniors Michael Huey and Kyle Hix but the weaker line, coupled with a starting quarterback with limited running ability in comparison to McCoy, probably means the ground game won't move forward. Johnson was named the starter for game one.

Defense (7 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #13 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #12
Texas returns a lot of talent but loses at least one crucial player in each section of the defense.
• '09 Stats:  Adj. Rush Def: #3   Adj. Pass Def: #4   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #10   Sacks: #8
The losses on the defensive line hit hard—both Lamar Houston (8 sacks plus 14 tackles for loss) and Sergio Kindle (5.5 sacks and a further 16.5 tackles for loss!) are gone. Two starters, Kheeston Randle and Sam Acho (10 sacks) are back, and Eddie Jones (5 sacks) moves into the lineup to help try to preserve the Longhorns' top ten sacks rating (the Texas D had 44 total). Things get a bit complicated when looking at returning starters for the "back seven" as Texas starts in a 4-2-5 and uses a 4-3 for much of the game. In 4-2-5 mode, 1 of 2 linebackers returns with 4 of 5 in the secondary; in 4-3, 2 of 3 LBs return and 3 of 4 corners and safeties. In either configuration there are five starters back. Anyhoo: Roddrick Muckelroy (#1 tackler w/102) is the linebacker lost, and Earl Thomas (#2 tackler, 16 pass breakups, 8 interceptions) is missing from the secondary, which are two huge losses. The other starting linebacker, Keenan Robinson, is back with the third LB Emmanuel Acho, and the secondary returnees include Blake Gideon (6 interceptions), Aaron Williams, and both Curtis and Chykie Brown (23 pass breakups combined). A ton of talent returns but Texas still loses four of its top five tacklers.

Kicking Game: Justin Tucker was Texas' main punter last year (40.4 average) but he lost out to John Gold (44.1 average) late in the year. No worries; Tucker will succeed placekicker Hunter Lawrence (24 of 27 FG last year).
Return Game: Receiver Jordan Shipley's value to the team was also as a punt returner. Last year he averaged 13 yards per return and took two back for touchdowns. Texas had 3 kickoff TD returns, too, one by receiver Marquise Goodwin and two by running back D.J. Monroe. Both of them are back in '10 and corner Aaron Williams will take over on punts.
Coaching/Recruiting      '10 Recruiting Rank: #3
Another year, another top recruiting class for Mack Brown. Though Texas finishes #3 in the nation they still aren't #1 in the Big Twelve, with Oklahoma edging them. Linebacker Jordan Hicks and defensive end Jackson Jeffcoat are uber-blue chips who may be the top players at their position in the 2010 recruiting class.

2009 Recap It all went to plan until the last game. Texas seemed destined to make it to the BCS championship game after coming within one play in 2008. Though sometimes not impressive and playing mostly weak opposition, the Longhorns did what they needed to do. They won ugly a lot—Oklahoma and Texas A&M come to mind—but they won, going 12-0 in the regular season. Their ugliest win was in the Big Twelve title game against Nebraska where Colt McCoy was a split-second away from tossing the national championship berth into the stands. But they dodged that bullet and got the winning field goal they needed. Against Alabama they looked good early, then McCoy was dinged in just the right spot to make his arm numb and useless. Backup Garrett Gilbert was awful early on, gifting the Tide a shovel-pass touchdown at the end of the half. He recovered to make the game almost interesting later on before making more freshman mistakes. Had McCoy remained the game would have been completely different and while the outcome could have been the same, it's telling how close Texas came to winning without him.

Texas 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	@	Rice	84%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Wyoming	78%	W
9/18	Sat	@	*Texas Tech	44%	L
9/25	Sat	vs.	UCLA	67%	W
10/2	Sat	N	*Oklahoma	40%	L
10/16	Sat	@	*Nebraska	43%	L
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Iowa State	76%	W
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Baylor	71%	W
11/6	Sat	@	*Kansas State	68%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma State	73%	W
11/20	Sat	vs.	Florida Atlantic	88%	W
11/25	Thu	vs.	*Texas A&M	56%	W
Projection   Straight up: 9-3   Cumulative: 8-4

2010 Outlook It doesn't look like Texas has a very good chance of returning to the national title game, and even the Big Twelve championship game is going to be a tough nut to crack. The first hurdle is Texas Tech, a team the Longhorns only beat 34-24 last season at home and who returns just about everyone. Then after UCLA comes to visit, back to back games against Oklahoma and Nebraska—both out for revenge—will likely have the Longhorns 3-3 by mid-season.

Then the easy part of the schedule arrives and Texas should sweep the 2nd half. Only Texas A&M might be a problem and by then Gilbert will be running the offense with precision. That makes the Longhorns 9-3. The cumulative projection has them 8-4 in case of an upset, and the only one I can see is A&M. But that's unlikely in Austin. Neither do I see Texas getting a win against Tech, OK, or Nebraska, as all those are on the road (or "neutral" Dallas). This is one of the most clear and confident predictions I've made for any team: Texas will definitely be 9-3* in 2010.

*unless they do better or worse than that.