2010 Pre-season Rankings - #11 to #13: Texas Tech, Miami, North Carolina

The SportsRatings 2010 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams. These rankings predict how good the teams will be in 2009 before taking schedule into account, then the preview explores how well they should do given their schedule.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team. Two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win (straight up), and also an aggregate projection that allows for the uncertainty across a season (cumulative). The expectation for the team's season lies somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #11 to #13. To see the full list, click here.

11. Texas Tech Red Raiders (Big Twelve #3; South #2)     Polls: AP #37  USA/Coaches #44

2009 Results: Record: 9-4  Bowl: Beat Michigan St. 41-31 (Alamo)  Poll finish: AP #21 USA #23
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #13    Success: #38    Overall: #17
Even though they finished in the Top 25 last year, Texas Tech isn't getting any respect in the pre-season polls. Do people think Tommy Tuberville is going to throw a wrench in the offense?

Offense (7 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #9   '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #7
There should be more of the same: passing, and a lot of it, from Tech's two talented quarterbacks.
• Passing Game:    '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #2    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #2
There's no reason to doubt the Raiders passing attack. Taylor Potts threw for 3,440 yards and 22 touchdowns, and Steven Sheffield added 1,219 and 14 TDs. Sheffield had a better completion percentage (74% to 66%) and had a better TD:int ratio (just 4 interceptions to Potts' 13), but Potts is a tough customer with a strong arm and has the job once again going into the fall. Even 3rd stringer Seth Doege threw two TD passes. The receiver corps is fully loaded, with Detron Lewis (844 yards), Alexander Torres (806), Tramain Swindall (694), Lyle Leong (571, 9 TDs), and five others who had between 150 and 500 receiving yards including RB Adam James (yes, he's still on the team). Only starting WR Edward Britton is gone from the group. The offensive line might be the sole concern as they allowed 31 sacks and only two starters are back. But unless head coach Tommy Tuberville messes too much with a good thing the Red Raider air attack will again finish second only to Houston in terms of production.
• Ground Game:   '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #110     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #102
While Texas Tech rarely fields a strong rushing attack, Auburn under Tuberville often did. The hope is that he can continue their passing success while bolstering the running game. To an extent, it should work this year but of course that depends on emphasis. The entire running back corps returns this year: Baron Batch (884 yards, 14 TDs), Eric Stephens (254), and Harrison Jeffers (217, 6.2 average) are back. None of the three quarterbacks netted positive yardage, a rarity these days, and only Sheffield has any running capability. The offensive line's issues may prevent much progress in the running game however. They lose Marlon Winn, Brandon Carter, and Shawn Byrnes, a total of eight years of starting experience. Lonnie Edwards and Chris Olson are back but have started just one year each. The numbers will improve with the running backs' experience and perhaps more utilization, but don't expect a great running game to emerge this year.

Defense (6 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #29    '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #35
The Tech defense loses most of its feared pass rush.
• '09 Stats:  Adj. Rush Def: #62   Adj. Pass Def: #26   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #36   Sacks: #1
The Tech defensive line loses three starters, returning only Colby Whitlock. A switch to a 3-4 minimizes the impact of the losses but the Raiders' pass rush will undoubtedly suffer as they lose Brandon Sharpe (15 sacks), Daniel Howard (8 sacks), and Richard Jones (2.5) as well as backup Rajon Henley (5 sacks). Last year Texas Tech had the strongest pass rush in the country (when corrected for their opponents), totalling 41 sacks, but those four alone account for 3/4 of it. At linebacker they lose only Marlon Williams while Bront Bird and #1 tackler Brian Duncan return, though they have another slot to fill. Overall the front seven returns just three starters but all are seniors. The pass defense was strong last year and the secondary returns three starters, LaRon Moore, Franklin Mitchem, and Cody Davis. They do lose Jamar Walls who broke up 15 passes last year and with a much weaker pass rush up front they will be tested more. Six of the top eight tacklers return but the defense will have different strengths and weaknesses.

Kicking Game: Ryan Erxleben (without even researching I'm going to assume he's got to be Russell's son) averaged 40.8 yards per punt, while Matt Williams made 11 of 14 field goals. Both return this year.
Return Game: Receiver Austin Zouzalik averaged 9.6 yards per punt return and Eric Stephens a strong 25.7 per kickoff return, and both are back.
Coaching/Recruiting      '10 Recruiting Rank: #40
Mike Leach lost his job last December due to Adam James, hubris, and a number of other factors including perhaps a bonus he was due if he remained on board. In an interesting move Tech hired Tommy Tuberville who was great at Auburn in just the areas Tech has lacked: running game and defense. However his teams rarely had strong passing and Tuberville's attempt to implement a spread failed miserably leading ultimately to his resignation. Strangely, after failing with Tony Franklin he's hired a Franklin disciple at Tech, Neal Brown. With a pass-happy system already in place with talent to burn, the job should be easier but fans and pundits are wary of Tuberville disturbing things. It doesn't help that Gene Chizik had Auburn's offense firing on all cylinders in his first year. Tuberville has already made one questionable call: making Taylor Potts the starting QB over the more dynamic Steven Sheffield. Of course, Leach made the same decision a year ago. You can't argue, either, with Tuberville's success at Auburn, particularly the 13-0 year in 2004. This year should be interesting.

As for recruiting, this year is down a bit, probably due to players that Leach was courting moving on, and also due to quite a bit of attrition as at least half a dozen players didn't qualify. This is something that happened at Auburn quite a bit under Tuberville. But they still got several blue or near-blue chips; two Texas recruits top their list, QB Scotty Young of Denton and defensive end Jackson Richards of Southlake.

2009 Recap After the almost-BCS-worthy year in 2008 there was bound to be a letdown, especially after losing Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree. But I felt that Tech would still have a strong 8-4 season, losing to Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State plus an unknown upset. They did lose to Texas and Houston (29-28) could count as the upset, but the real upset came later when Texas A&M beat them 52-30, one week after the Raiders had destroyed Nebraska 31-10. They did lose to Oklahoma State, too, putting them a game down from the forecast but the next week they demolished Oklahoma (who had given up more than three touchdowns just once) 41-13. They beat Baylor to stay on track at 8-4. They went into the Alamo Bowl heavy favorites due to Michigan State's player suspensions and though it took both quarterbacks to do it they won, 41-31.

Texas Tech 2010 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sun	vs.	SMU	78%	W
9/11	Sat	@	New Mexico	97%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	*Texas	56%	W
10/2	Sat	@	*Iowa State	74%	W
10/9	Sat	N	*Baylor	71%	W
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma State	77%	W
10/23	Sat	@	*Colorado	69%	W
10/30	Sat	@	*Texas A&M	54%	W
11/6	Sat	vs.	*Missouri	62%	W
11/13	Sat	@	*Oklahoma	41%	L
11/20	Sat	vs.	Weber State	87%	W
11/27	Sat	vs.	Houston	66%	W
Projection   Straight up: 11-1   Cumulative: 8-4

2010 Outlook Could this be a repeat of 2008? That is, win every game—including Texas—before losing to Oklahoma and finishing 11-1? Yes, it could. And if Mike Leach were still coaching his system then we would say it's going to happen, but we have to admit to having doubts like everyone else about Tuberville's fit for this team.

There's no question they can beat SMU, another pass-happy team, particularly at home. New Mexico shouldn't provide much resistance. Then the Raiders host Texas, and after seeing them play so close last year it seems that with a shift to Lubbock and with the Longhorns missing Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley, this one's solidly in Tech's favor.

They really should run through the easy part of their Big Twelve slate unscathed; that means they beat Iowa State, Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Colorado. The next three-game stretch is their toughest: Texas A&M on the road, Missouri, and Oklahoma in Norman. They'll lose at least one game here, we believe, and maybe two or three, before getting Weber State as a breather before facing Houston.

By our game-by-game picks that makes Tech 11-1, though the cumulative projection factors in odds of getting upset and comes up with 8-4. If I had to pick 4 game they will lose it would be Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri, and Oklahoma. I think they'll beat Houston in the rematch at home handily.

In fact I think they'll beat Texas, too, and probably Missouri as well. The Texas A&M game shifts to College Station after the Aggies destroyed Tech a year ago. And I think Oklahoma will be very good this year and out for revenge at home. That makes Texas Tech 10-2 in 2010.

A lot depends on Tuberville and his new coaching staff. If they somehow manage to keep Tech's strengths while boosting the weak areas that Tuberville is good at then 11-1 could still happen. But if he doesn't make progress anywhere—and harms the passing attack—then 8-4 is the best they can hope for. We figure he'll do a little of both—muck up the passing game but improve the running game and defense—so the 10-2 prediction stands.

 

12. Miami Hurricanes (ACC #2; Coastal #2)       Polls: AP #13 USA/Coaches #13

2009 Results: Record: 9-4   Bowl: Lost to Wisconsin 20-14 (Champs)   Poll finish: AP #19 USA #19
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #14      Success: #16     Overall: #14
Randy Shannon has won 5, 7, and now 9 games as head coach. Can he win 11 this season?

Offense (5 RS)      '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #17      '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #14
Jacory Harris is back to lead the passing attack, but will Graig Cooper be there to carry the ball?
• Passing Game: '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #21           '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #12
Miami was lucky it was Robert Marve that transferred and not Jacory Harris. Harris, also a "Mr. Football" of Florida, showed what he is capable of last year throwing for 3,352 yards and 24 TDs as a sophomore. Still rough around the edges, he threw 17 interceptions. If he's healthier and more accurate this year will be something special. The top four receivers are back including Leonard Hankerson (801 yards, 6 TDs), Travis Benjamin (501, 4), LaRon Byrd (460) and Alderius Johnson (276). #5, Thearon Collier, was kicked off the team this summer. The only drawback is the offensive line which gave up 35 sacks last year and loses three starters; Harris has had trouble when pressured. Super-recruit Seantrell Henderson could be part of a solution. Harris should have a great year regardless.
• Ground Game: '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #52       '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #60
The question all pre-season has concerned Graig Cooper (695 yards), Miami's leading rusher for the past three years. Hurt in the bowl game against Wisconsin (ACL), his recovery was ahead of schedule but others—Damien Berry (#2 with 616 yards last year), Mike James (46 yards as fullback last year) and redshirt frosh Lamar Miller—made gains while he was hurt, leaving open the question of whether he will redshirt this year. As of now the other three are "co-starters" in a 3-man rotation. #3 rusher Javarris James is gone, too, and with the offensive line weaker (before factoring in Henderson at least) the rushing game is down a bit. Three starters—4-year starter Jason Fox, A.J. Trump, and Matt Pipho—are gone while Orlando Franklin and Joel Figueroa are back as seniors. The latest word from Randy Shannon is that Cooper will play in the opener in some fashion, and I've taken this as a sign that Cooper is determined to be back this year. He could stil redshirt and if so the rushing ranking will drop a bit more.

Defense (8 RS)     '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #17     '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #14
The Hurricane defense inches back toward the leve of dominance of the best Miami teams.
• '09 Stats:    Adj. Rush Def: #20     Adj. Pass Def: #45   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #34   Sacks: #81
One of Miami's best-ever defensive linemen departs and it doesn't really affect outlook for the defense this season. That's because Eric Moncur hardly played last year, so the only significant hits to the D-line are the loss of starter Joe Joseph and part-time starter Steven Wesley (who was dismissed from the team over the summer). Back are Josh Holmes, Allen Bailey (7 sacks), and half-time starter Marcus Robinson. The Canes lose top tackler Darryl Sharpton (106 tackles) but have #2 Colin McCarthy (9.5 tackles for loss) and Sean Spence back. The secondary has Brandon Harris (15 pass breakups), Vaughn Telemaque, and DeMarcus Van Dyke back. Overall the defense returns seven of the top ten tacklers and has three medical redshirts returning; tackle Marcus Forston and d-backs Ryan Hill and JoJo Nicolas all have starting experience from '08.

Kicking Game: Matt Bosher has been a great punter and kicker for the Hurricanes for years; now a senior, Bosher returns after averaging 42.5 yards per punt and making 14 of 16 field goals. Miami doesn't have to worry about these positions until next year.
Return Game: The kick fielding department is a big question mark right now. Graig Cooper—who may or may not redshirt—took most kickoffs last year (22.4 average) though Mike James (21.3) could take over for him. Thearon Collier handled punts, and handled them well, to the tune of a 13.2 yard average and two touchdowns; he was kicked off the team and transferred to USC. Losing him on the return squad hurts more than losing him as a receiver, where he scored just once; receivers score touchdowns all the time, but it''s doubtful his replacement will take two punts back to the house
Coaching/Recruiting       '10 Recruiting Rank: #8
Randy Shannon's first year was a 5-7 flop. The next season was a qualified success at 7-5. Last year was pretty good at 9-4 but could have been better. Will he continue the trend and register 11 wins? And in 2011, 13? That would probably mean a national championship or very close to one. If recruiting is any indication then they're on the right track. This year's class is perhaps a touch lower than FSU's in the ACC and boasts about 10 players considered blue chips by one rating service or another. But the unquestionable prize in this class is offensive lineman Seantrel Henderson, who decommited from USC and joined the Hurricanes. At 6' 8" and 340 lbs., his size is reminiscent of Bryant McKinnie and if his rating can be trusted—he's the consensus #1 offensive lineman and the #1 recruit overall according to some—then he might play like him, too. With the line losing three starters it's hard to believe that he won't earn a starting job some time this season.

2009 Recap Much was written about the deadly 4-game opening run Miami had to navigate; in retrospect it wasn't so horrible, as FSU finished 7-6 and Oklahoma 8-5. Miami won both those games and beat Georgia Tech to boot, but lost to Virginia Tech for a solid 3-1 start. They hit a mid-season snag, losing to Clemson in overtime and nearly losing the next game to Wake Forest but rallied to win 28-27. They lost once more, to North Carolina, giving them 3 losses in the ACC. In the Champs Sports Bowl they scored early but couldn't do anything for the next 55 minutes as Wisconsin won 20-14.

Miami 2010 schedule & forecast
9/2	Thu	vs.	Florida A&M	99%	W
9/11	Sat	@	Ohio State	46%	L
9/23	Thu	@	Pittsburgh	56%	W
10/2	Sat	@	*Clemson	53%	W
10/9	Sat	vs.	*Florida State	58%	W
10/16	Sat	@	*Duke	70%	W
10/23	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina	54%	W
10/30	Sat	@	*Virginia	69%	W
11/6	Sat	vs.	*Maryland	75%	W
11/13	Sat	@	*Georgia Tech	51%	W
11/20	Sat	vs.	*Virginia Tech	49%	L
11/27	Sat	vs.	South Florida	71%	W
Projection Straight up: 10-2 Cumulative: 8-4

2010 Outlook Miami once again faced four tough games early on, but this year they start with a breather against Florida A&M. Then it's on the road against Ohio State, Pitt, and Clemson, and back home against FSU. And it looks like they should go 3-1 again, losing to the Buckeyes but beating the rest, though 2-2 wouldn't be a surprise given that all the games appear to be close.

After that they get Duke, and North Carolina at home, another narrow win. Virginia and Maryland should be wins, then they travel to Georgia Tech for a truly tossup game. Virginia Tech at home should be close but the Hokies will be great this year. If they beat South Florida that should make 10 wins, more or less, with the cumulative projection reflecting the fact that seven of these games are almost too close to call. With five near-certain wins and 7 tossups, that means that 8 or 9 wins might be expected; give them 9 since they're favorites in the majority.

I'd like to think that Shannon can continue to increase Miami's win total by two, and 10-2 would put him in position. These games will be a lot more exciting if Miami is having a good season. But there are a lot of road games among the close ones so going 9-3 is nothing to be ashamed of, and is certainly a lot better than the season they'll have if they lose all the tossup games.

 

13. North Carolina Tar Heels (ACC #3; Coastal #3)      Polls: AP #18 USA/Coaches #18

2009 Results:   Record: 8-5   Bowl: Lost to Pittsburgh 19-17 (Car Care)   Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #25    Success: #27    Overall: #26
North Carolina's offense will be much better, but it's the defense that makes them a top team.

Offense (10 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #76    '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #39
The loaded offense is ready to make a big jump.
• Passing Game:  '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #101    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #51
T.J. Yates had some decent numbers in 2009: 60% completions and 14 touchdowns. The problems were twofold: he passed for not much more than 2,000 yards and had 15 interceptions. The cure to the first problem—production—might be in the receiving corps which returns everyone of note. Greg Little had 724 yards while Eric Highsmith, tight end Zack Pianalto, Jheranie Boyd and running back Shaun Draughton combined for over 1,000. The solution to the interception problem might be to give Yates more time. The offensive line gave up 26 sacks last year, and with four starters back that situation should improve. The only thing that could derail a big gain in production this year is the multiple NCAA investigations involving Little and and unknown number of other players. Barring that, Yates should have by far his best year as a senior.
• Ground Game:   '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #74    '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #51
As in the passing game, all key personnel return in the backfield including leading rusher Ryan Houston (713 yards, 9 TDs). Power back Houston averaged just 3.7 per carry and Shaun Draughton, who had 567 before he was hurt, will take over again as the starter. Johnny White and receivers Little and Boyd each had over 100. The offensive line will facilitate improvement as four starters return. Kyle Jolly is gone after starting for three years but Alan Pelc, Mike Ingersoll, Jonathan Cooper, and Cam Holland (now a backup) all return. Look for a sizeable jump in rushing yardage this season.

Defense (9 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #7    '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #2*
North Carolina had a top ten defense last year, and this season it will be among the very best—that is, unless half of their first string is suspended.
• '09 Stats:   Adj. Rush Def: #5   Adj. Pass Def: #15   Per-Attempt Pass Def: #5   Sacks: #19
The only questionable area on North Carolina's defense is the front four where two starters are gone and a third, Marvin Austin, is one of two primary targets of the NCAA probe. Robert Quinn (11 sacks) is back and Quinton Coples (5 sacks) moves into the starting lineup, so unless Austin is ruled ineligible the defensive line will be just as strong. The defense's real strength begins at linebacker where Quan Sturdivant (#1 tackler, 11 tackles for loss) teams up with Bruce Carter and Kevin Reddick. The secondary was among the nation's best last year and all four starters are back. At cornerback Kendrick Burney (5 interceptions) and Charles Brown (9 pass breakups) return and at safety Deunta Williams (6 interceptions) and Da'Norris Searcy are back. All four are seniors. In all UNC has its top five tacklers back and if they can continue to stop the run nearly as well as last year the defense will be excellent. [*At this time, just before the season starts, at least a half-dozen starters on defense might be suspended for one or more games. I've dealt with this by making a partial docking of the defense's talent which reduces it to the #5 defense. If the worst case happens, it will be much lower. A lot is up in the air about North Carolina's season!]

Kicking Game: Casey Barth made 21 of 25 field goals last year, while Grant Schallock averaged 40.3 yards per punt. Both are back for the Tar Heels.
Return Game: Da'Norris Searcy returned one punt for a touchdown last year and averaged 14.6 per attempt. Johnny White was the primary kickoff returner with a 20.5 average. Both are back.
Coaching/Recruiting       '10 Recruiting Rank: #34
Butch Davis has North Carolina back on the winning track but fans are hoping he can do what he did for Miami—put the team in contention for the national title. Last year's recruiting class was a big step in that direction as it ranked easily in the top ten. This year's isn't quite as strong but still ranks 4th in the ACC. The class has several consensus blue chips, including offensive linemen James Hurst from Indiana and T.J. Leifheit from Wilmington. But defensive tackle Brandon Willis transferred to UCLA and while running back Giovanni Bernard stayed he tore his ACL and will take a medical redshirt.

2009 Recap Big hopes for the 2009 season dwindled at the loss to Georgia Tech, and moreso after the Heels were upset by Virginia, putting them at 3-2. A loss to FSU made them 4-3 and just 2-3 against FBS teams at that stage. But the season turned around with an upset win at Virginia Tech, and the Tar Heels won the next three including a win over Miami. But disappointment struck again as they were themselves upset at rival North Carolina State, 28-27. They battled Pitt but lost 19-17 in the Meineke Car Care Bowl.

UNC 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	N	LSU	51%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	*Georgia Tech	56%	W
9/25	Sat	@	Rutgers	64%	W
10/2	Sat	vs.	East Carolina	86%	W
10/9	Sat	vs.	*Clemson	58%	W
10/16	Sat	@	*Virginia	68%	W
10/23	Sat	@	*Miami (Florida)	46%	L
10/30	Sat	vs.	William & Mary	74%	W
11/6	Sat	@	*Florida State	51%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Virginia Tech	48%	L
11/20	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina St.	76%	W
11/27	Sat	@	*Duke	69%	W
Projection Straight up: 10-2 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook Once again things look good in the pre-season, but will they live up to the hype? There's already a cloud on the horizon in the form of two NCAA investigations: one looking into starters Greg Little (WR) and Marvin Austin (DE) as to whether they had prohibited dealings with an agent. A second, wider investigation deals with academics and tutors and involves more (unnamed) starters, mostly on defense.

Rather than try to guess what will happen, whether Little and Austin will be eligible and whether UNC will be able to play in the post-season, let's go with what we know. It's reasonable to assume Little and Austin won't play against LSU in Atlanta, but even with them out the Tar Heels should win. It's going to be close though and is one of the most interesting cross-conference games of the season. I've also docked North Carolina for some of the defensive starters that might be out, while LSU has injuries of their own.

After that they have two weeks to prepare the defense for Georgia Tech and that could be the deciding factor. Four more wins should follow after that and with luck UNC will be 6-0 heading into Miami where they will likely suffer their first loss. William & Mary is next and they might be the best team in the FCS this year. Still, UNC should beat them and even edge FSU on the road (though that's basically a tossup). They get Virginia Tech at home yet still might lose, and they close with two easier games (I assume they can beat their in-state rival at home, and Duke on the road).

That would put them at 10-2, while the cumulative projection sees the odds favoring a couple of upsets and/or different results in the close games. So much is up in the air. If the NCAA investigations go poorly then the team could be crippled and dejected and finish no better than 6-6, which wouldn't even get them to a bowl if they're banned. This is a worst-case scenario, of course.

More likely the Tar Heels finish about 9-3, perhaps falling on the road to FSU, or maybe on the neutral field to LSU if several players are suspended for early games. North Carolina could have a fantastic defense and a good offense this year, and it would be a shame if their off-field activities jeopardize the team's success, but that may happen.